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SIZING EUROPE IS OFF THE SCALE GOOD
After watching the video of his win at Punchestown and
comparing his times with other races I have to say SIZING EUROPE (42) is a very
special horse. Given his strapping physique and the way he's always overjumped
hurdles he looked sure to excel over fences. But even so the run he put up to
win a hot Grade 3 novice chase by seventeen lengths at Punchestown was amazing.
It was almost off the scale for a novice chaser on my ratings.
I concede that it's tricky making speed ratings for
Punchestown as the course can be reconfigured quite radically. To make sense of
the times you've got to use a stop watch to clock the sections. The safest
solution is to find a race that looked strongly run from the video and then
clock how fast they ran from the same point in another race.
The 3m 1f handicap chase on the card was clearly a true run
affair and they clocked 4m 31.4 for the last 2m 1f of the contest. If Sizing
Europe had run the same time when adjusted for the shorter trip of his race he
should have clocked 4m 25.9. In fact he covered the last 2m 1f in 4m 21.5, which
makes him thirteen lengths a mile faster than the winner of the handicap chase.
That's mind boggling.
Sizing Europe just lobbed along through the race, cruised
clear and won with any amount in hand after jumping like a buck.
This is a very smart horse indeed. In fact Sizing Europe is
so smart I'd like to see him tackle experienced chasers instead of sticking to
the novice ranks. After all he's now rising eight and has no time to waste.
I see no reason why Sizing Europe shouldn't stay three
miles. He's a very deep chested sort that's already won over two and a half
miles on heavy ground. So I'd like to see him go for the King George or the
Ericcson Chase over Christmas rather than one of the obvious novice targets.
DONNAS PALM NOT FAR OFF CHAMPION HURDLE CLASS
DONNAS PALM (38) performed brilliantly on his first four
starts last season. He won three of them and was a neck second to the brilliant
Hurricane Fly in the Grade 1 Royal Bond in the other. I still maintain he might
well have won that race if it hadn't been run at such a crawl which enabled
Hurricane Fly to use his flat race speed to beat Donnas Palm in the ensuing
sprint finish.
After those four runs Donnas Palm's form fell apart. He
finished tailed off last in three of his four subsequent outings and got beat
seven lengths into second by Mikal d'Haguenet in the other.
Trainer Noel Meade says he had all sorts of tests made on
Donnas Palm to find the reason for his loss of form but found nothing. He now
thinks his later flops were because Donnas Palm is probably best fresh.
This explanation makes a lot of sense as Donnas Palm is a
rather narrow sort which means he carries less condition than most horses and
almost certainly needs longer to recover from a race as a result.
Donnas Palm certainly seemed to prove the theory right when
bouncing back to win a maiden on the flat following a six month break before
romping home in fast time in a Listed hurdle at Punchestown last week.
At Puchestown Donnas Palm crused into the lead entering the
straight and jockey Paul Carberry was able to take several leisurely looks back
over his shoulder. Carberry barelyn needed to move a muscle yet Donnas Palm
clocked a solid Grade 3 time. It's hard to believe he couldn't have pulled out
at least another four lengths, maybe eight, and that's enough to put him bang
there with the very best hurdlers.
As long as he's kept fresh I plan to keep on following
Donnas Palm. He looks a seriously good hurdler to me.
I was impressed with the way OH SO HUMBEL (20) set a
scorching pace while pinging the hurdles before tiring on his first run in
nearly six months. Like a lot of front runners he seems best dominating small
fields and has won both times he's run in races with less than ten runners
following a recent outing. Next time he hits a small field I'll be interested in
his chances in a lower class contest. It could be a good idea to send him novice
chasing as he has the size for that and is a bold jumper.
NOLL WOLLOP HAS A BIG FUTURE
NOLL WOLLOP (35) only just sneaked into pattern territory
on my speed ratings when taking a good mile maiden for juveniles at the Curragh.
But this good looking, mature colt was clearly green as grass. His ears were
going all over the place and he just didn't know what to do as he ambled along,
moving easily in the closing stages. He only prevailed in a photo but I'm
convinced he could have opened up by two or three lengths if he'd realised he
was supposed to extend himself more. Add to this the fact that trainer Tommy
Stack says he'd prefer faster ground and I reckon we have a horse with a big
future.
MASTERCRAFTSMAN MAY LACK FINISHING KICK NEEDED FOR BC
CLASSIC
I thought FIERY LAD (37) was a good bet to beat
MASTERCRAFTSMAN (40) in the big prep for the Breeders' Cup Classic at Dundalk.
The Coolmore colt lacks the turn of foot normally needed to win on synthetic
surfaces whereas Fiery Lad can produce a terrific burst of finishing speed.
Indeed, with a bit of racing luck Fiery Lad might well have won all his previous
eight starts on Polytrack.
However, as is so often the case with Aidan O'Brien's best
horses, Mastercraftsman was supplied with a pacemaker who went twelve lengths
clear with a decent filly Jim Bolger runner at a searching gallop. As a result
Mastercraftsman didn't have to produce the kind of finish that will almost
certainly be needed if he is to follow up this win at Santa Anita.
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