IRELAND SEPT 06

 

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BOTHAR NA CAN WIN MORE BIG CHASES

BOTHER NA (39) won the Guinness Kerry National in a time that's fast enough to make him a serious contender for just about any big staying handicap chase. It's understandable that his connections nominated the Grand National as his prime objective as he's already jumped round the course and shown several times that huge fields pose no problems for him.

STAR INSIDE AND MICA'S ISLAND BETTER THAN HANDICAPPERS

STAR INSIDE (36) and MICA'S ISLAND (36) dead heated for a good nursery at Listowel in Pattern class time. Both are lightly-raced sorts that have now won their last two starts and clearly appreciated the step up to a mile. I'd be interested in either of them if they ran in a Listed or Group 3 race next time. If they stick to handicap company I wouldn't dream of opposing them.

 

CHIEF CRAZY HORSE IS A DECENT SPRINTER

CHIEF CRAZY HORSE (37) won a conditions sprint at the Curragh in a time that suggests he'll be competitive when stepped back up to pattern company. He's still lightly raced and I hope he's kept in training next year as he could easily develop into one of Ireland's top sprinters.

Runner-up IRELAND'S CALL (37) is amazingly versatile. He's won over six, seven and eight furlongs this season and on every sort of going. He'd have been winning for the sixth time in his last seven starts if the photo had gone the other way.

 

OFFICER KRUPKE SHOULD WIN AGAIN

Juvenile hurdlers tend to run about three lengths a mile slower than novices so the time clocked by OFFICER KRUPKE (34) when he won at Listowel is borderline Pattern class. He's clearly a useful sort and should win again soon.

 

KASTORIA IS SOMETHING SPECIAL

Very often the fastest times come about when a horse is allowed an uncontested lead at a relatively soft pace and then kicks on. This seemed to be the case in the Irish St Leger where YEATS (43) equaled his best ever performance when allowed to set his own pace but KASTORIA (43) still managed to catch him.

The pair pulled ten lengths clear of their pursuers in what I rated the joint fastest race run in the last five years beyond a mile and a half anywhere in Europe.

Kastoria is clearly something special. But I'm not convinced that the idea of running her in the Canadian International is such a great move. That is surely just an afterthought to a race that has been her big target all year. And even if Kastoria somehow manages to retain her form for that race it will involve a two furlong cut back in distance. Her two best races this year and her best run last year have all been at a mile and three quarters. I'd worry about her getting done for pace at the shorter distance at Group 1 level. In addition the going is often yielding at Woodbine at this time of the year and Kastoria seems most effective on good or faster ground.

Yeats again demonstrated here that he's one of the best horses in training. He's capable of winning just about anything from a mile and a half to two and a half miles. And it was certainly good news to hear that he stays in training next year.

 

TEOFILO HAS SPEED AS WELL AS STAMINA

TEOFILO (33) beat the very smart HOLY ROMAN EMPEROR (32) in the National Stakes. And weirdly enough, for me, the impressive thing about his performance was the fact he ran slower than the 50-80 handicap over the same course and distance later on the card.

We already knew that Teofilo could run fast over seven furlongs. Now he's shown that he can win off a steady pace and outsprint a six furlong Group 1 winner in the process. This is remarkable for a horse that's by the sire who, as trainer Jim Bolger pointed out, has just produced the first three home in the St Leger.

The picture of Teofilo winning shows that he's a great big beast of a horse with a deep chest who already looks like he'd have no problems going a mile and a half.

I have to say Teofilo has already got me rather excited, and Bolger added to the excitement when he openly talked about the possibility of going for the Triple Crown with him next year. It's been over two decades since a horse even ran in all three legs of the Triple Crown. And I thought we'd never again see a horse attempt the feat when Nashwan sidestepped the last leg way back in 1989. But in Teofilo we seem to have a horse who, thanks to his sire Galileo, is looking very much like a 1970's flashback who could easily be as versatile as to distance as the last Triple Crown winner Nijinsky.

Nijinsky was unbeaten in five starts as a two year old. Teofilo will attempt to emulate that feat next time out when he takes in either the Dewhurst Stakes (which Nijinsky won on his last juvenile start) or the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere. I wouldn't dream of opposing him in either contest and will doubtless spend a good deal of the Winter fantasizing about the possibility of him winning the Triple Crown.

 

 

ROCKALL BLIZZARD'S WIN WAS NO FLUKE

ROCKALL BLIZZARD (38) won the Oyster Stakes in Group class time. If a photo had gone the other way this would have been his third successive win. Only a good horse can run this fast, and that is clearly what this lightly raced three year old is. I suspect that he was still feeling the effects of this run when fifth in a Premier Handicap a few days later and that he'll bounce back to form next time.

BE MY QUEEN (38) ran a really big race for a three year old filly to under by just a short head while pulling eight lengths clear of the third. She obviously improved markedly for the big step up in trip and is capable of winning a Group race against her own sex on this showing.

 

 

MAJELLA'S BOY AND SUPER GALE WORTH FOLLOWING

When two ten year olds fight out the finish of a minor chase it's usually a sure sign that it's a weak contest. However the chase fought out by MAJELLA'S BOY (37) and SUPER GALE (37) looks to be an exception.

Majella's Boy has now won two of the last three times he's gone what seems to be his specialist trip of two and a half miles on good ground. The losing run came off a break of just ten days and his trainer says he needs a bit of time between his runs.

Super Gale won all seven of his point to point starts but may well not have been getting the three miles at the stronger pace of races that are run under rules. Over this shorter distance he ran right up to the form he's shown between the flags.

Both Majella's Boy and Super Gale are very well handicapped. I'd be surprised if they can't be placed to take a few races over this sort of trip in the next few months.

 

 

DYLAN THOMAS STILL HASN'T RUN FAST

Dylan Thomas (40) won the Irish Champion Stakes but only in Group 2 class time. I know from experience that it's not normally a smart move to knock a horse that's won two Group 1 races. But Dylan Thomas has consistently run to this sort of level, so I'm inclined to think he's simply been lucky and is nowhere near as good as most people now seem to rate him.

 

DALUCCI KEEPS ON IMPROVING

DALUCCI (36) has improved with every start according to my speed ratings. He continued the improvement to take a decent maiden at Clonmel in borderline Listed class time. He's capable of winning something pretty decent off this run and would be a good bet in an ordinary handicap next time.

 

 

KALDERON IS NOT A MUDLARK

KALDERON (40) almost certainly broke the course record when winning the Ruby Stakes over a mile at Tralee. But since no course records are kept at Irish tracks (except the Curragh) all I can say is that he ran 1.4 seconds faster than any of the other 94 races run over a mile at Tralee in the last decade.

Kalderon has a reputation for being a mudlark. But I really don't think he is. I reckon that Kalderon doesn't stay an inch further than eleven furlongs and needs good or faster ground. All his wins have come on what my going allowances say was good or faster ground (I don't know where they get some of the foreign going descriptions they carry in the Racing Post, but believe me Kalderon has never won on soft or heavy ground).

When he goes back over hurdles I'd bet on Kalderon not getting home on yielding or softer ground. But if he can run this fast over timber I'd expect him to be a seriously good novice at the minimum distance on fast ground. I should also note that it could well be he needs a tight track to run his best as all his wins have come on tracks ten furlongs or less in circumferance.

 

STAR INSIDE IS USEFUL

STAR INSIDE (35) won a mile juvenile maiden at Tralee in pattern class time. This was the colt's first try beyond a sprint trip and he clearly improved for the step up in distance. He'd be interesting in a Listed or even a Group 3 race next time.

 

MRS GILLOW SMART AT 1M 6F

MRS GILLOW (38) won the Guinness Gold Cup at Tralee in fast time on going I rated good rather than the official yielding. She has run just as fast at two miles according to my speed ratings, but it looks significant that she has now won all three times she's run on what my going allowances say was good or faster ground at 1 mile 6 furlongs.

 

DESERT LORD TOUGH IN A SMALL FIELD

BENBAUN (43) equaled his best ever speed rating to win the Flying Five at the Curragh. He's very consistent and deserves a Group 1 win. I would be wary of betting against him over five furlongs on fast ground.

DESERT LORD (43) ran Benbaun close and has any amount of ability. In fact this was the third time I've awarded him a speed rating good enough to win a Group 1 race. The first time was when he lowered the long standing six furlong course record at Lingfield. The second was when he came close to breaking the five furlong track record at Pontefract.

What holds Desert Lord back it seems to me is that he doesn't like racing in a crowd. He did win a couple of times in a big field. But the field split into two groups both times, so effectively he was racing in a small field. All his other wins have come in fields of 12 or less like he had at the Curragh.

I believe that Desert Lord is best over five furlongs and only fully effective over six furlongs on a downhill track. He's won over six at Chepstow which is markedly downhill and on the Polytrack at Lingfield which has an average one in 64 downhill gradient from the six furlong mark to the finish. I don't think he got home over the very slow Polytrack surface at Kempton.

If you look at Desert Lord's form in fields of 12 or less at five furlongs or over a downhill six you'll find that he's won four times out of seven and run big races in two of his losses. Now that he's racing in pattern company he's going to encounter small fields more often. Next time he does I'd take his chances very seriously indeed.