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BOTHAR NA CAN WIN MORE BIG CHASES
BOTHER NA (39) won the Guinness Kerry National in a time
that's fast enough to make him a serious contender for just about any big
staying handicap chase. It's understandable that his connections nominated the
Grand National as his prime objective as he's already jumped round the course
and shown several times that huge fields pose no problems for him.
STAR INSIDE AND MICA'S ISLAND BETTER THAN HANDICAPPERS
STAR INSIDE (36) and MICA'S ISLAND (36) dead heated for a
good nursery at Listowel in Pattern class time. Both are lightly-raced sorts
that have now won their last two starts and clearly appreciated the step up to a
mile. I'd be interested in either of them if they ran in a Listed or Group 3
race next time. If they stick to handicap company I wouldn't dream of opposing
them.
CHIEF CRAZY HORSE IS A DECENT SPRINTER
CHIEF CRAZY HORSE (37) won a conditions sprint at the
Curragh in a time that suggests he'll be competitive when stepped back up to
pattern company. He's still lightly raced and I hope he's kept in training next
year as he could easily develop into one of Ireland's top sprinters.
Runner-up IRELAND'S CALL (37) is amazingly versatile. He's
won over six, seven and eight furlongs this season and on every sort of going.
He'd have been winning for the sixth time in his last seven starts if the photo
had gone the other way.
OFFICER KRUPKE SHOULD WIN AGAIN
Juvenile hurdlers tend to run about three lengths a mile
slower than novices so the time clocked by OFFICER KRUPKE (34) when he won at
Listowel is borderline Pattern class. He's clearly a useful sort and should win
again soon.
KASTORIA IS SOMETHING SPECIAL
Very often the fastest times come about when a horse is
allowed an uncontested lead at a relatively soft pace and then kicks on. This
seemed to be the case in the Irish St Leger where YEATS (43) equaled his best
ever performance when allowed to set his own pace but KASTORIA (43) still
managed to catch him.
The pair pulled ten lengths clear of their pursuers in what
I rated the joint fastest race run in the last five years beyond a mile and a
half anywhere in Europe.
Kastoria is clearly something special. But I'm not
convinced that the idea of running her in the Canadian International is such a
great move. That is surely just an afterthought to a race that has been her big
target all year. And even if Kastoria somehow manages to retain her form for
that race it will involve a two furlong cut back in distance. Her two best races
this year and her best run last year have all been at a mile and three quarters.
I'd worry about her getting done for pace at the shorter distance at Group 1
level. In addition the going is often yielding at Woodbine at this time of the
year and Kastoria seems most effective on good or faster ground.
Yeats again demonstrated here that he's one of the best
horses in training. He's capable of winning just about anything from a mile and
a half to two and a half miles. And it was certainly good news to hear that he
stays in training next year.
TEOFILO HAS SPEED AS WELL AS STAMINA
TEOFILO (33) beat the very smart HOLY ROMAN EMPEROR (32) in
the National Stakes. And weirdly enough, for me, the impressive thing about his
performance was the fact he ran slower than the 50-80 handicap over the same
course and distance later on the card.
We already knew that Teofilo could run fast over seven
furlongs. Now he's shown that he can win off a steady pace and outsprint a six
furlong Group 1 winner in the process. This is remarkable for a horse that's by
the sire who, as trainer Jim Bolger pointed out, has just produced the first
three home in the St Leger.
The picture of Teofilo winning shows that he's a great big
beast of a horse with a deep chest who already looks like he'd have no problems
going a mile and a half.
I have to say Teofilo has already got me rather excited,
and Bolger added to the excitement when he openly talked about the possibility
of going for the Triple Crown with him next year. It's been over two decades
since a horse even ran in all three legs of the Triple Crown. And I thought we'd
never again see a horse attempt the feat when Nashwan sidestepped the last leg
way back in 1989. But in Teofilo we seem to have a horse who, thanks to his sire
Galileo, is looking very much like a 1970's flashback who could easily be as
versatile as to distance as the last Triple Crown winner Nijinsky.
Nijinsky was unbeaten in five starts as a two year old.
Teofilo will attempt to emulate that feat next time out when he takes in either
the Dewhurst Stakes (which Nijinsky won on his last juvenile start) or the Prix
Jean-Luc Lagardere. I wouldn't dream of opposing him in either contest and will
doubtless spend a good deal of the Winter fantasizing about the possibility of
him winning the Triple Crown.
ROCKALL BLIZZARD'S WIN WAS NO FLUKE
ROCKALL BLIZZARD (38) won the Oyster Stakes in Group class
time. If a photo had gone the other way this would have been his third
successive win. Only a good horse can run this fast, and that is clearly what
this lightly raced three year old is. I suspect that he was still feeling the
effects of this run when fifth in a Premier Handicap a few days later and that
he'll bounce back to form next time.
BE MY QUEEN (38) ran a really big race for a three year old
filly to under by just a short head while pulling eight lengths clear of the
third. She obviously improved markedly for the big step up in trip and is
capable of winning a Group race against her own sex on this showing.
MAJELLA'S BOY AND SUPER GALE WORTH FOLLOWING
When two ten year olds fight out the finish of a minor
chase it's usually a sure sign that it's a weak contest. However the chase
fought out by MAJELLA'S BOY (37) and SUPER GALE (37) looks to be an exception.
Majella's Boy has now won two of the last three times he's
gone what seems to be his specialist trip of two and a half miles on good
ground. The losing run came off a break of just ten days and his trainer says he
needs a bit of time between his runs.
Super Gale won all seven of his point to point starts but
may well not have been getting the three miles at the stronger pace of races
that are run under rules. Over this shorter distance he ran right up to the form
he's shown between the flags.
Both Majella's Boy and Super Gale are very well
handicapped. I'd be surprised if they can't be placed to take a few races over
this sort of trip in the next few months.
DYLAN THOMAS STILL HASN'T RUN FAST
Dylan Thomas (40) won the Irish Champion Stakes but only in
Group 2 class time. I know from experience that it's not normally a smart move
to knock a horse that's won two Group 1 races. But Dylan Thomas has consistently
run to this sort of level, so I'm inclined to think he's simply been lucky and
is nowhere near as good as most people now seem to rate him.
DALUCCI KEEPS ON IMPROVING
DALUCCI (36) has improved with every start according to my
speed ratings. He continued the improvement to take a decent maiden at Clonmel
in borderline Listed class time. He's capable of winning something pretty decent
off this run and would be a good bet in an ordinary handicap next time.
KALDERON IS NOT A MUDLARK
KALDERON (40) almost certainly broke the course record when
winning the Ruby Stakes over a mile at Tralee. But since no course records are
kept at Irish tracks (except the Curragh) all I can say is that he ran 1.4
seconds faster than any of the other 94 races run over a mile at Tralee in the
last decade.
Kalderon has a reputation for being a mudlark. But I really
don't think he is. I reckon
that Kalderon doesn't stay an inch further than eleven furlongs and needs good
or faster ground. All his wins have come on what my going allowances say was
good or faster ground (I don't know where they get some of the foreign going
descriptions they carry in the Racing Post, but believe me Kalderon has never
won on soft or heavy ground).
When he goes back over hurdles I'd bet on Kalderon not
getting home on yielding or softer ground. But if he can run this fast over
timber I'd expect him to be a seriously good novice at the minimum distance on
fast ground. I should also note that it could well be he needs a tight track to
run his best as all his wins have come on tracks ten furlongs or less in
circumferance.
STAR INSIDE IS USEFUL
STAR INSIDE (35) won a mile juvenile maiden at Tralee in
pattern class time. This was the colt's first try beyond a sprint trip and he
clearly improved for the step up in distance. He'd be interesting in a Listed or
even a Group 3 race next time.
MRS GILLOW SMART AT 1M 6F
MRS GILLOW (38) won the Guinness Gold Cup at Tralee in fast
time on going I rated good rather than the official yielding. She has run just
as fast at two miles according to my speed ratings, but it looks significant
that she has now won all three times she's run on what my going allowances say
was good or faster ground at 1 mile 6 furlongs.
DESERT LORD TOUGH IN A SMALL FIELD
BENBAUN (43) equaled his best ever speed rating to win the
Flying Five at the Curragh. He's very consistent and deserves a Group 1 win. I
would be wary of betting against him over five furlongs on fast ground.
DESERT LORD (43) ran Benbaun close and
has any amount of ability. In fact this was the third time I've awarded him a
speed rating good enough to win a Group 1 race. The first time was when he
lowered the long standing six furlong course record at Lingfield. The second was
when he came close to breaking the five furlong track record at Pontefract.
What holds Desert Lord back it seems to me is that he
doesn't like racing in a crowd. He did win a couple of times in a big field. But
the field split into two groups both times, so effectively he was racing in a
small field. All his other wins have come in fields of 12 or less like he had at
the Curragh.
I believe that Desert Lord is best over five furlongs and
only fully effective over six furlongs on a downhill track. He's won over six at
Chepstow which is markedly downhill and on the Polytrack at Lingfield which has
an average one in 64 downhill gradient from the six furlong mark to the finish.
I don't think he got home over the very slow Polytrack surface at Kempton.
If you look at Desert Lord's form in fields of 12 or less
at five furlongs or over a downhill six you'll find that he's won four times out
of seven and run big races in two of his losses. Now that he's racing in pattern
company he's going to encounter small fields more often. Next time he does I'd
take his chances very seriously indeed.
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