ARCH REBEL SHOULD GO FOR CUMBERLAND LODGE

I've never been able to understand ARCH REBEL (39) before. He's earned speed ratings good enough to win Group 2 races from me but rarely seems to win.

Last week however Arch Rebel bounced back to his best to take the Diamond Stakes at Fairyhouse. And his trainer Noel Meade seemed to explain afterwards why he'd previously been so hard to predict and also why he's probably now worth following. He said that the horse had been treated for a long standing joint problem earlier this year and had improved with every run since.

Arch Rebel certainly ran a big race at Fairyhouse. Be became only the third horse ever to finish in front of FRACAS (38) over ten furlongs. The other two horses to achieve the feat are Dylan Thomas and Septimus, two of the best runners on the planet.

CONNA CASTLE A SMART NOVICE CHASER

It might seem a bit early in the jump season to be talking about Sun Alliance Chase prospects. But

CONNA CASTLE (38) certainly ran quick enough to make himself a candidate for Cheltenham next March when beating the useful KNIGHT LEGEND (38) at the Listowel Festival.

It may be that Conna Castle has problems jumping fences in a really big field as he's run badly both times he's tried. However if you exclude his chase starts under rules with 16 or more runners and include his point to point starts his record looks tremendous. If he hadn't tipped up at the last when looking set to score on his debut he'd have won seven of his eight starts in smaller fields over fences.

Knight Legend had won the most recent two times he'd completed the course over fences on soft or heavy going and would have made it three in a row but for coming up against an unusually smart rival here. He should be able to win something decent this Winter when he gets his ground.

BALLYCULLEN BOY LOOKS GOOD FOR THE MUNSTER NATIONAL

BALLYCULLEN BOY (39) is best on good ground according to his trainer. And this certainly jibes with his record. Before last week's Kerry National he had lost all nine times he'd run on soft or heavy ground but was unlucky not to have won all five of his hurdle and chase starts on yielding or faster going.

Ballycullen Boy got his ground in the Kerry National and ran a tremendous race to go under by only a length to PONMEOATH (39). His next race will apparently be the Munster National at Limerick next month. If it turns up yielding or faster there I'd be wary of opposing him.

Ponemoath may also go for the Munster National and is clearly a useful three mile chaser. He's now run big races in valuable handicap chases over this sort of trip on two of the three occasions he's tried it. His long term objective is the Irish National and he certainly ran fast enough for that to be worthwhile here. His strike rate is nothing like as good as that of the runner-up though, and I rather fancy Ballycullen Boy's chances of turning this form around if the pair meet again in the Munster National on fast ground.

DINGLE BELLE'S WIN WAS NO FLUKE

DINGLE BELLE (37) had lost all sixteen of her starts before she took the valuable Lartigue Hurdle at the Listowel Festival. But I think it would be unwise to dismiss her win as a fluke. This was the eighth successive race where she had show improvement according to my speed ratings. In addition she probably broke the course record. I cannot say for sure as my records only go back eleven years. But her time was the fastest in this period of 238 bumper, hurdle and flat races run over two miles at Listowel.

Dingle Belle finished second in maidens at the Curragh and Leoaprdstown last Spring. Such races invariably produce pattern class winners, and the two that beat Dingle Belle both went on to earn black type.

It looks like a soft palate operation has brought Dinbgle Belle back to that sort of form. So I suspect she's going to win something else decent over timber before long. Certainly she'll be tough to beat in novice company, particularly in mares events. In fact she's ran as fast as most mares ever do as novice hurdlers and looks capable of winning a Graded contest against her own sex.

NEW APPROACH STILL NEEDS TO RUN FASTER

The time of a race does not always reflect the true merit of the winner. Sometimes the early pace is too fast for a good final time to be possible. On other occasions it's too slow. Frustratingly this is the case with NEW APPROACH (35).

In the Futurity Stakes last month New Approach went off way too fast yet still managed to score. Last Sunday he was asked to set a pretty modest pace in the National Stakes, so it's not surprising he clocked a slightly slower time than they ran in the big sales race over the same course a couple of days earlier on what I rated basically identical ground.

New Approach pulled violently for his head at one point but kicked clear nicely when finally allowed to go the pace he wanted after halfway.

I'm still inclined towards a negative view about New Approach at this point. Maybe he'll run a fast time on his next start. But I'd like to see him show a great deal more tractability both before and during a race before I risk my money on him.

I was actually a bit more impressed with the runner up RIO DE LA PLATA (33). He was several lengths behind when the pace quickened around two furlongs out but still managed to gain a good deal of ground. By my estimates they ran the last two furlongs in around 23.3 seconds, so Rio De La Plata put in a sub 11 second furlong at some point during the closing stages which is pretty impressive.

Rio De La Plata is a really good looking horse who simply flows over the ground with a daisy-cutting stride. He earned a rating of 37 from me last time and will probably end up being my pick for the Dewhurst on his next start.

MYBOYCHARLIE (31) confirmed the impression that he's going to be best over shorter trips by finishing third.

HASANKA AND EZIMA ARE TWO OF THE TOP 3YO FILLIES

You will not see many better three year old fillies at a mile and a half than HASANKA (39) and EZIMA (39) who fought out the finish of the Oyster Stakes at Galway while pulling eight lengths clear of some smart older males.

I knew from my speed ratings that Hasanka was fast. But I had serious doubts about her being effective on ground that was officially good to firm. As it turned out race times showed that the going was actually good with no jar in at all, and Hasanka was able to act on it.

Hasanka narrowly prevailed in an extended duel here and has run nothing but huge races on genuinely good or slower ground. I rate her just as fast as Kastoria was at three, and that filly went on to win the Irish St Leger for the same trainer and owner, John Oxx and the Aga Khan, as a four year old.

This performance was good enough to win a Group 1 race for three year old fillies according to my speed ratings. And it looks like Hasanka has the potential to make the same sort of progress Kastoria did from three to four. John Oxx says she's still immature and should improve for another Winter.

Hasanka is probably always going to have problems acting on firm going. But when she gets even a bit of cut in the ground I'd be wary of betting against her.

Hasanka's obvious target next year is the Irish St Leger. This year she is still entered up in the Prix de Royallieu at Longchamp's Arc meeting. John Oxx has won the Prix de Royallieu twice before. He'd have a real chance of making it a hat trick if the ground came up good or softer at Longchamp.

I thought Ezima was a great bet at 9-1 in the Oyster Stakes. She'd earned one of the biggest speed ratings I gave a three year old filly in the first half of the season when taking a Navan maiden back in April over a mile. That race was run on desperately heavy ground on one of Europe's stiffest tracks. So I suggested after the race that Ezima was unlikely to reproduce the form in normal conditions unless she was stepped up to a mile and a half, the distance she's bred for.

DYLAN THOMAS KEEPS ON ROLLING

DYLAN THOMAS (41) got the fast ground he needs in the Irish Champion Stakes. And, thanks to his pacemaker RED ROCK CANYON (38) he got something close to the strong early pace he requires. So it's no big surprise that he won.

Watching him win this race made me concerned about Dylan Thomas' chances in the Arc. Even if he does get his ground you have to worry about the lack of maneuverability he showed here and in the Juddmonte International where he wasn't able to escape being boxed in by the winner. In this race he looked decidedly unorganized as he surged up to challenge and rolled over to the rail as he struck the front. Fast as he is I'm now inclined to oppose Dylan Thomas in the Arc on the grounds that he'll surely have problems finding a run in the stampede to the line that race invariably involves. He is a huge horse that takes an awful long time to get rolling. By the time he gets clear and into full stride the Arc may well be decided.

Dylan Thomas has twice run a couple of points faster than he did here. And I have little doubt he could have done so this time if only his pacemaker had gone quicker. In fact Red Rock Canyon ran the first six furlongs about 2.8 seconds slower than they did in the Group 3 Kilternan Stakes on the same card by my estimates.

Only if Coolmore throw in a faster pacemaker than Red Rock Canyon into the fray at Longchamp will I reconsider my position on Dylan Thomas.

Runner-up DUKE OF MARMALADE (40) was my choice for the race following his very promising run in the Juddmonte. And it looked like he was going to do it when he kicked on entering the straight. But Dylan Thomas simply swamped him for finishing speed when he got into his stride.

Aiden O'Brien suggested that Duke Of Marmalade might now be steered towards the Breeders' Cup. I certainly endorse the idea of stepping him up to a mile and a half for the Breeders' Cup Turf. He ran like the trip would be no problem here. My concern would be just how well a big horse like Duke Of Marmalade will handle the very tight turns of Monmouth Park where this year's Breeders' Cup is to be run. Monmouth is just seven furlongs in circumference, and the homestraight is a mere furlong and a half.

I can see how you could argue a case for running Duke Of Marmalade on dirt in the Breeders' Cup Classic. But I would have thought Coolmore have a far better candidate for that race in George Washington. If he were mine I'd be shooting for the other race O'Brien was talking about, the Champion Stakes at Newmarket. I'd also be keeping him in training next year when he'll surely have great prospects in all the big middle-distance Group 1's.

THOUGHTLESS MOMENT SHOULD WIN A GROUP RACE

It would have been very interesting to see how THOUGHTLESS MOMENT (39) would have fared if she'd lined up in the Group 1 Matron Stakes rather than the valuable September Handicap on the same card at Leopardstown last Sunday. My speed ratings say she would have gone close.

In beating a field of smart older males Thoughtless Moment earned one of the biggest speed ratings I've given a three year old filly all season. She ran only a bit slower when winning her maiden two starts back and may have found seven furlongs a bit short for her off a moderate pace when losing in between these two successes. The seven furlongs must have ridden like a mile this time as the early pace was a searching one. Even so Thoughtless Moment only got going very late. So I'd like to see her step back up to a mile or so when she shoots for a Group win.

SAOIRSE ABU IS NOT THAT GOOD

I gave SAOIRSE ABU (34) a very moderate speed rating for her win in the Phoenix Stakes. And I'm afraid I can't find a way to give her anything near a Group 1 rating for her second Group 1 win in the Moyglare Stud Stakes.

The race didn't look to be run at a particularly slow pace, so I think the time is a reflection of Saoirse Abu's ability. And that means she really isn't that good.

I've given several two year old fillies big speed ratings this season. But none of them lined up in the Moyglare Stud Stakes. I say it wasn't much of a race and the winner should be opposed in the top races from now on.

DANDY MAN DESERVES A GROUP 1 WIN

DANDY MAN (42) is the fastest Irish sprinter since Namid according to my speed ratings. So it's pretty amazing that he has lost the last seven Group races he's contested.

A combination of soft ground, poor luck in running and the near unbeatable Australian sprinters have been Dandy Man's problems in the past. To their number must be added BENBAUN (42), one of the fastest sprinters in recent years and a near unstoppable force over five furlongs at the Curragh.

It's just not fair that Dandy Man should go under so narrowly while once more earning a speed rating that would normally win a Group 1. He must be the unluckiest top class horse in training.

One thing I know from betting is that luck has a way of evening itself out over time. So I'm betting that Dandy Man will be meeting his favoured fast ground in a big five furlong sprint before the season is out. Hopefully it will be in the Prix Abbaye because he deserves a Group 1 win.

WILDWISH CAN EARN BLACK TYPE

WILDWISH (36) clocked a Listed class time when winning at Down Royal. Clearly she improved for the cut back to five furlongs and looks worth following when she returns in foal next year with the aim of earning some black type. My ratings suggest she has a good chance of achieving that objective when she gets the fast ground she seems to need.

Runner-up SEVEN GOLD RINGS (36) is also useful. But she seems to be something of a one track wonder. She'd won her two previous starts at Down Royal and would have made it three out of three but for bumping into an unusually good rival for the class here. Next time she runs at Down Royal I'll be interested in her chances.