IRELAND SEPTEMBER 04

 

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TIPPER ROAD WAY BETTER THAN CLAIMING CLASS

There was a near stampede at the claiming box after the three year old TIPPER ROAD (37) strolled home by 14 lengths from the useful Penny Rich at Listowel. No doubt his new connections will attempt to exploit the hugely improved form he showed on heavy ground here. I rather doubt they'll be running him in another race where he's up for sale though.

DOESHEKNOW (36) is rising ten, but that doesn't mean we know everything there is to know about him. He took an ordinary Listowel handicap chase in excellent time the other day, demonstrating that he actually needs more than the two and a half miles or less he's normally run over.

The Listowel race was only the second time Doesheknow had raced over three miles. he other occasion was in the Munster National, the most valuable race Doesheknow has ever contested. He looked like winning that race too until he took the wrong course.

Clearly Doesheknow is much better than he has previously seemed - as long as he's given three miles or more to race over. Right now he's so well handicapped that he still qualifies for low grade contests. No doubt his connections will take advantage of this sometime soon.

 

DUBAWI IS THE REAL DEAL

Godolphin's new policy of switching all the two year old's to Saeed bin Suroor's care has certainly paid dividends this season. According to my speed figures, the boys in blue have their best team of two year olds ever. And right at the top of the heap after his National Stakes win stands DUBAWI (37).

No two year old has run a faster time beyond six furlongs by my estimates than Dubawi this season. And I can very well see why the bookmakers have made him favourite for the Epsom Derby. I could quibble and say that his sire and dam both tried twelve furlongs just once and failed to stay. But I'm not much of a believer in pedigrees these days. If they train Dubawi specifically for the Derby and run him exclusively over trips of 10 furlongs or more next season before the big race I'll be happy to bet that he'll stay. My studies show that nowadays horses need to be conditioned rather than bred to stay middle distances, and the way to do that is to avoid running the over less than ten furlongs at three.

Vinnie Roe (39) was most impressive in winning his fourth successive Irish St Leger. But I'd bear in mind that this was his big target of the whole season and that the rain-softened ground helped him. If he ships over to Australia for the Melbourne Cup it's likely he'd encounter a firm surface. He'd be more interesting in the Prix Royal Oak. However, my speed figures indicate he's not quite the horse that he was a couple of years ago, so I can't recommend following him off this run.

I'm not putting the name of Monturani (40) in bold either despite the fast time of her win in the Blandford Stakes. She's run a whole string of fast times through her career but lacks the finishing kick to win more than once in a while.

I rather like the look KINNAIRD (40) and ALL TOO BEAUTIFUL (40) who both earned lifetime fastest speed figures in going under narrowly to Monturani. Kinnaird just keeps on running faster with every outing and will surely be tough to beat next time. All Too Beautiful looks equally interesting. I can see the pair of them going close at the big Arc meeting in a couple of weeks time.

ADAALA (33) sploshed through the mud at Roscommon to record an unusually fast time for a seven furlong juvenile maiden. Seeing that it was her racecourse debut, Adaala ought to be able to improve on this effort, and that makes her look a potential Group winner.

ALEXANDER QUEEN (32) was another juvenile filly to run fast when winning last week. Her success came at the Curragh in a 29 runner maiden. She's improved with every run and earned a Listed class speed rating from me. So, if she runs in a nursery as planned next time out, I'd say she's something to bet on.

 

GREY SWALLOW RUNS THE BEST ARC TRIAL

AZAMOUR (45) put up a big international Group 1 class performance on the clock when winning the St James' Palace stakes over a mile. And he reproduced the same level of performance over ten furlongs to take the Irish Champion stakes. He is clearly a seriously good horse. In fact, on my ratings he ranks as fast as Sinndar and a bit ahead of Alamshar who did so well for the same stable. I would be wary of opposing him in future.

Runner up NORSE DANCER (45) was losing for the sixteenth time in his last seventeen starts. But his trainer, David Elsworth, pointed ouit that horses by his sire Halling tend to improve with age. And that certainly seems to be the case looking at Norse Dancer's recent form. He won what was basically a Group 1 race in all but name at Salisbury. Now he's followed that effort with second place finishes in two of Europe's biggest middle distance races.

I can't believe that a horse as fast as Norse Dancer won't win a Group 1 race very soon. He'll be getting his chance in Newmarket's Champion stakes and the Hong Kong Cup. Both those races are over the same ten furlongs of this race, and that seems to be a slightly better distance for Norse Dancer than a mile.

I can see Norse Dancer getting by Azamour at Newmarket seeing that the three year old tends to idle in front and could start to goof off on the long, wide straight stretches of the Rowley Mile course. He'd have a big shot in Hong Kong too.

Third placed POWERSCOURT (44) has been an unlucky horse this season. He slipped up on the treacherously wet turf going into and coming out of the home turn in the Eclipse. He wasn't quite fit when second in the Grosser Dallmyr Preis and he was disqualified after powering home impressively in the Arlington Million.

Powerscourt equaled the chunky speed figure I'd awarded him after his big Group 1 win at the Curragh earlier in the year, confirming that he's one of the best middle distance horses on the planet. I reckon he's got a great shot of taking another big international prize this season. The race I'd like to see him shoot for is the Breeders' Cup Turf. Like almost all US turf races over a mile and a half, that race looks near certain to be run at a slow early pace. Only Epalo looks likely to give him company up front early on in that race, and I can see Powerscourt kicking away from him and the rest on the home turn to open up a big break that his rivals will find hard to close.

GREY SWALLOW (44) put up a fantastic trial for the Arc to take a close fourth place off a lay-off at a distance which is probably a bit short for him. It's interesting to note that three of the last four horses which ran in the Arc after reaching the first two in the Irish Derby went on to win Europe's most prestigious race. Grey Swallow looks to have a major chance of making it four out of five. I'm surprised that the bookies didn't make him clear favourite for Longchamp after this terrific run.

RAKTI (43) banged his head leaving the starting stalls and that may well be why he ran a smidge below his best here.

Rakti's trainer has said repeatedly that Rakti is best when fresh and that he can't handle very soft ground. Toss out the one race where he came into it off a break on such going and Rakti's record before this race showed six wins out of seven when he'd been rested. The sole loss was a very good second to Falbrav in what I rated the world's fastest race last year. It's debatable whether the five weeks between this race and Newmarket's Champion stakes will be enough of a break for Rakti. If he were mine I'd now keep him fresh for the Hong Kong Cup in December. Falbrav denied him that rich prize last year, but he'd have a huge chance of taking it this time around if he went into the race fresh.

IMPERIAL DANCER (42) equaled his best ever speed figure to take fifth. He'll surely have a great shot of [ulling off a double in the Group 1 Prmio Roma in November.

DOYEN (41) ran a whole lot better than I expected him to, finishing a close up seventh despite being eased when beaten. I just couldn't understand why he was cut back to ten furlongs for this race.

Andre Fabre used to train Doyen, and I reckon he's a very shrewd trainer. He only ran Doyen once over a trip shorter than a mile and a half. This was when he ran unplaced on his racecourse debut over nine furlongs. If he felt the horse could be effective at ten furlongs how come he ran him over twelve furlongs from March last year. Most of the races available to Doyen last March were over ten furlongs but Fabre carefully picked one out that was over 12. Doyen's two brothers, Hatha Anna and Moonfire, both put up their best performances at trips beyond two miles, while his sister, Oaks winner Moonshell would surely have followed suit if she'd run more than four times.

In the circumstances Doyen ran one hell of a race. He actually earned a speed rating from me that would have won many Group 1's. So I have to concede he could actually win over ten furlongs. But he's surely better over a mile and a half. Next time he runs over that trip and gets the fast ground he needs I'd be wary of opposing him.

In the other big Group 1 at Leopardstown SOVIET SONG (44) ran another huge race to get the better of Attraction. She is clearly some filly and will take all the beating in the QEII which is her big target. After that I'd love to see her go for the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. That race is ideally suited to a European miler, as Banks Hill showed, and would be a much softer target for Soviet Song than the Breeders' Cup Mile, where the slow pace and crowded sprint finish would surely pose big problems for a filly that seems to run best in strongly run races.

ATTRACTION (43) just doesn't have the finishing kick required for the Breeders Cup Mile or the stamina for the Filly & Mare Turf. She's by Europe's top All Weather sire Efisio, so I'd really like to see her shoot for the Breeders' Cup Distaff. It's a race the Europeans invariably avoid but Attraction has the ability to win it.

On the same card another three year old filly, COLD COLD WOMAN (37) earned a speed figure that would win many Listed races when taking a competitive looking handicap. Cold Cold Woman has now won both times she's run beyond a mile and looks set to win something better soon.

Back in March I gave a heavy plug on my website to MEGEC BLIS (40) after she'd won a maiden race at Leopardstown in pattern class time. The clock seemed to be saying she was a Guineas candidate, and the third and fourth certainly franked the form by winning in Group company. But it looks like she had some sort of setback because she was rested until June after losing her next start and was then off for a further three months before her latest outing.

Thankfully, Megec Blis now seems to be over whatever was ailing her and earned one of the biggest speed ratings I've given a three year old filly when dotting up by six lengths in what looked like a prettty warm conditions race at Galway. She bettered the fastest time run over the course and distance in the last 11 years. That time was run by Social Harmony who went on to win in Listed and Group company.

Clearly, the objective for Megec Blis now has to be to emulate Social Harmony and win a Group race in order to ensure her stud value. One that I'd be looking at closely is the Prix Foret. It's over the distance she's scored both her wins, it's frequently a soft Group 1, and fillies have a good record in it. Wherever she goes, I'd be wary of opposing Megec Blis next time. From a betting point of view I'd like to see her run in a Group 3 against colts because she'd then start at a fair price and have a major chance of winning. If Dermot Weld manages to find her a Listed or Group 3 against her won sex the odds look sure to be very stingy.

The fastest time of the week in Ireland was , perhaps not surprisingly, run in the Group 3 Flying Five at the Curragh. As is normal in such races, the first two home were British-trained sprinters Ringmoor Down (40) and Benbaun (40). Britain has the best sprinters in Europe and win half the French and Irish Group sprints they run in. But Ireland normally has a pretty poor supply of Group class sprinters. So the performances of OSERTHASE (40), GLOCCA MORRA (39), ULFAH (39) and GRAND REWARD (39) in finishing bang there with the British horses is definitely worth noting.

Osterhase had won the last four times he'd run five furlongs on anything but heavy ground and remains the benchmark for Irish sprinters. I've thought for some time that he'd have a real shot in the Abbaye.

Glocca Morra always seems to hit form at this time of year and has in fact won four of the six sprints he's contested from late August onwards (when you chuck out one race where he unseated his rider in the stalls). I rather fancy his chances of winning next time. Similar comments apply to Ulfah who had won three of her previous four starts. While Grand Reward earned his biggest ever speed rating. It looks like he's been improved for the cut back to short sprints.

The clock indicates that the Moyglare Stud Stakes was a Group 1 in name only. The winner, Chelsea Rose (32) only earned a Listed class rating from me. I wouldn't want to be following her or any of those that finished behind her.