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TIPPER ROAD WAY BETTER THAN CLAIMING CLASS
There was a near stampede at the claiming box after the three year old TIPPER
ROAD (37) strolled home by 14 lengths from the useful Penny Rich at Listowel. No
doubt his new connections will attempt to exploit the hugely improved form he
showed on heavy ground here. I rather doubt they'll be running him in another
race where he's up for sale though.
DOESHEKNOW (36) is rising ten, but that doesn't mean we know everything there
is to know about him. He took an ordinary Listowel handicap chase in excellent
time the other day, demonstrating that he actually needs more than the two and a
half miles or less he's normally run over.
The Listowel race was only the second time Doesheknow had raced over three
miles. he other occasion was in the Munster National, the most valuable race
Doesheknow has ever contested. He looked like winning that race too until he
took the wrong course.
Clearly Doesheknow is much better than he has previously seemed - as long as
he's given three miles or more to race over. Right now he's so well handicapped
that he still qualifies for low grade contests. No doubt his connections will
take advantage of this sometime soon.
DUBAWI IS THE REAL DEAL
Godolphin's new policy of switching all the two year old's to Saeed bin
Suroor's care has certainly paid dividends this season. According to my speed
figures, the boys in blue have their best team of two year olds ever. And right
at the top of the heap after his National Stakes win stands DUBAWI (37).
No two year old has run a faster time beyond six furlongs by my estimates
than Dubawi this season. And I can very well see why the bookmakers have made
him favourite for the Epsom Derby. I could quibble and say that his sire and dam
both tried twelve furlongs just once and failed to stay. But I'm not much of a
believer in pedigrees these days. If they train Dubawi specifically for the
Derby and run him exclusively over trips of 10 furlongs or more next season
before the big race I'll be happy to bet that he'll stay. My studies show that
nowadays horses need to be conditioned rather than bred to stay middle
distances, and the way to do that is to avoid running the over less than ten
furlongs at three.
Vinnie Roe (39) was most impressive in winning his fourth successive Irish St
Leger. But I'd bear in mind that this was his big target of the whole season and
that the rain-softened ground helped him. If he ships over to Australia for the
Melbourne Cup it's likely he'd encounter a firm surface. He'd be more interesting
in the Prix Royal Oak. However, my speed figures indicate he's not quite the
horse that he was a couple of years ago, so I can't recommend following him off
this run.
I'm not putting the name of Monturani (40) in bold either despite the fast
time of her win in the Blandford Stakes. She's run a whole string of fast times
through her career but lacks the finishing kick to win more than once in a
while.
I rather like the look KINNAIRD (40) and ALL TOO BEAUTIFUL (40) who both
earned lifetime fastest speed figures in going under narrowly to Monturani.
Kinnaird just keeps on running faster with every outing and will surely be tough
to beat next time. All Too Beautiful looks equally interesting. I can see the
pair of them going close at the big Arc meeting in a couple of weeks time.
ADAALA (33) sploshed through the mud at Roscommon to record an unusually fast
time for a seven furlong juvenile maiden. Seeing that it was her racecourse
debut, Adaala ought to be able to improve on this effort, and that makes her
look a potential Group winner.
ALEXANDER QUEEN (32) was another juvenile filly to run fast when winning last
week. Her success came at the Curragh in a 29 runner maiden. She's improved with
every run and earned a Listed class speed rating from me. So, if she runs in a
nursery as planned next time out, I'd say she's something to bet on.
GREY SWALLOW RUNS THE BEST ARC TRIAL
AZAMOUR (45) put up a big international Group 1 class performance on the
clock when winning the St James' Palace stakes over a mile. And he reproduced
the same level of performance over ten furlongs to take the Irish Champion
stakes. He is clearly a seriously good horse. In fact, on my ratings he ranks as
fast as Sinndar and a bit ahead of Alamshar who did so well for the same stable.
I would be wary of opposing him in future.
Runner up NORSE DANCER (45) was losing for the sixteenth time in his last
seventeen starts. But his trainer, David Elsworth, pointed ouit that horses by
his sire Halling tend to improve with age. And that certainly seems to be the
case looking at Norse Dancer's recent form. He won what was basically a Group 1
race in all but name at Salisbury. Now he's followed that effort with second
place finishes in two of Europe's biggest middle distance races.
I can't believe that a horse as fast as Norse Dancer won't win a Group 1 race
very soon. He'll be getting his chance in Newmarket's Champion stakes and the
Hong Kong Cup. Both those races are over the same ten furlongs of this race, and
that seems to be a slightly better distance for Norse Dancer than a mile.
I can see Norse Dancer getting by Azamour at Newmarket seeing that the three
year old tends to idle in front and could start to goof off on the long, wide
straight stretches of the Rowley Mile course. He'd have a big shot in Hong Kong
too.
Third placed POWERSCOURT (44) has been an unlucky horse this season. He
slipped up on the treacherously wet turf going into and coming out of the home
turn in the Eclipse. He wasn't quite fit when second in the Grosser Dallmyr
Preis and he was disqualified after powering home impressively in the Arlington
Million.
Powerscourt equaled the chunky speed figure I'd awarded him after his big
Group 1 win at the Curragh earlier in the year, confirming that he's one of the
best middle distance horses on the planet. I reckon he's got a great shot of
taking another big international prize this season. The race I'd like to see him
shoot for is the Breeders' Cup Turf. Like almost all US turf races over a mile
and a half, that race looks near certain to be run at a slow early pace. Only
Epalo looks likely to give him company up front early on in that race, and I can
see Powerscourt kicking away from him and the rest on the home turn to open up a
big break that his rivals will find hard to close.
GREY SWALLOW (44) put up a fantastic trial for the Arc to take a close fourth
place off a lay-off at a distance which is probably a bit short for him. It's
interesting to note that three of the last four horses which ran in the Arc
after reaching the first two in the Irish Derby went on to win Europe's most
prestigious race. Grey Swallow looks to have a major chance of making it four
out of five. I'm surprised that the bookies didn't make him clear favourite for
Longchamp after this terrific run.
RAKTI (43) banged his head leaving the starting stalls and that may well be
why he ran a smidge below his best here.
Rakti's trainer has said repeatedly that Rakti is best when fresh and that he
can't handle very soft ground. Toss out the one race where he came into it off a
break on such going and Rakti's record before this race showed six wins out of
seven when he'd been rested. The sole loss was a very good second to Falbrav in
what I rated the world's fastest race last year. It's debatable whether the five
weeks between this race and Newmarket's Champion stakes will be enough of a
break for Rakti. If he were mine I'd now keep him fresh for the Hong Kong Cup in
December. Falbrav denied him that rich prize last year, but he'd have a huge
chance of taking it this time around if he went into the race fresh.
IMPERIAL DANCER (42) equaled his best ever speed figure to take fifth. He'll
surely have a great shot of [ulling off a double in the Group 1 Prmio Roma in
November.
DOYEN (41) ran a whole lot better than I expected him to, finishing a close
up seventh despite being eased when beaten. I just couldn't understand why he
was cut back to ten furlongs for this race.
Andre Fabre used to train Doyen, and I reckon he's a very shrewd trainer. He
only ran Doyen once over a trip shorter than a mile and a half. This was when he
ran unplaced on his racecourse debut over nine furlongs. If he felt the horse
could be effective at ten furlongs how come he ran him over twelve furlongs from
March last year. Most of the races available to Doyen last March were over ten furlongs
but Fabre carefully picked one out that was over 12. Doyen's two brothers, Hatha
Anna and Moonfire, both put up their best performances at trips beyond two
miles, while his sister, Oaks winner Moonshell would surely have followed suit
if she'd run more than four times.
In the circumstances Doyen ran one hell of a race. He actually earned a speed
rating from me that would have won many Group 1's. So I have to concede he could
actually win over ten furlongs. But he's surely better over a mile and a half.
Next time he runs over that trip and gets the fast ground he needs I'd be wary
of opposing him.
In the other big Group 1 at Leopardstown SOVIET SONG (44) ran another huge
race to get the better of Attraction. She is clearly some filly and will take
all the beating in the QEII which is her big target. After that I'd love to see
her go for the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. That race is ideally suited
to a European miler, as Banks Hill showed, and would be a much softer target for
Soviet Song than the Breeders' Cup Mile, where the slow pace and crowded sprint
finish would surely pose big problems for a filly that seems to run best in
strongly run races.
ATTRACTION (43) just doesn't have the finishing kick required for the
Breeders Cup Mile or the stamina for the Filly & Mare Turf. She's by
Europe's top All Weather sire Efisio, so I'd really like to see her shoot for
the Breeders' Cup Distaff. It's a race the Europeans invariably avoid but
Attraction has the ability to win it.
On the same card another three year old filly, COLD COLD WOMAN (37) earned a
speed figure that would win many Listed races when taking a competitive looking
handicap. Cold Cold Woman has now won both times she's run beyond a mile and
looks set to win something better soon.
Back in March I gave a heavy plug on my website to MEGEC BLIS (40) after
she'd won a maiden race at Leopardstown in pattern class time. The clock seemed
to be saying she was a Guineas candidate, and the third and fourth certainly
franked the form by winning in Group company. But it looks like she had some
sort of setback because she was rested until June after losing her next start
and was then off for a further three months before her latest outing.
Thankfully, Megec Blis now seems to be over whatever was ailing her and
earned one of the biggest speed ratings I've given a three year old filly when
dotting up by six lengths in what looked like a prettty warm conditions race at
Galway. She bettered the fastest time run over the course and distance in the
last 11 years. That time was run by Social Harmony who went on to win in Listed
and Group company.
Clearly, the objective for Megec Blis now has to be to emulate Social Harmony
and win a Group race in order to ensure her stud value. One that I'd be looking
at closely is the Prix Foret. It's over the distance she's scored both her wins,
it's frequently a soft Group 1, and fillies have a good record in it. Wherever
she goes, I'd be wary of opposing Megec Blis next time. From a betting point of
view I'd like to see her run in a Group 3 against colts because she'd then start
at a fair price and have a major chance of winning. If Dermot Weld manages to
find her a Listed or Group 3 against her won sex the odds look sure to be very
stingy.
The fastest time of the week in Ireland was , perhaps not surprisingly, run
in the Group 3 Flying Five at the Curragh. As is normal in such races, the first
two home were British-trained sprinters Ringmoor Down (40) and Benbaun (40).
Britain has the best sprinters in Europe and win half the French and Irish Group
sprints they run in. But Ireland normally has a pretty poor supply of Group
class sprinters. So the performances of OSERTHASE (40), GLOCCA MORRA (39), ULFAH
(39) and GRAND REWARD (39) in finishing bang there with the British horses is
definitely worth noting.
Osterhase had won the last four times he'd run five furlongs on anything but
heavy ground and remains the benchmark for Irish sprinters. I've thought for
some time that he'd have a real shot in the Abbaye.
Glocca Morra always seems to hit form at this time of year and has in fact
won four of the six sprints he's contested from late August onwards (when you
chuck out one race where he unseated his rider in the stalls). I rather fancy
his chances of winning next time. Similar comments apply to Ulfah who had won
three of her previous four starts. While Grand Reward earned his biggest ever
speed rating. It looks like he's been improved for the cut back to short
sprints.
The clock indicates that the Moyglare Stud Stakes was a Group 1 in name only.
The winner, Chelsea Rose (32) only earned a Listed class rating from me. I
wouldn't want to be following her or any of those that finished behind her.
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