EURO LEADER AND MONTEREY BAY HAVEN'T STOPPED WINNING

The Kerry National has steadily increased in value over recent years to the point where it is now one of the most valuable chases in Ireland. Most really valuable handicaps are won by lightly raced sorts that have been specially laid out to have crack at the big prize. This being so it doesn't surprise me that the profile of the winners has changed. Five of the last eight Kerry National winners before this year had previously raced eight or fewer time over fences before. This year five of the eighteen runners in the big race had eight or fewer chase starts. They included the first and second EURO LEADER (38) and MONTEREY BAY (38).

Euro Leader has won all of his three starts this season and my ratings say the same thing as his trainer - namely that he is improving all the time.

Euro Leader has won all six times he's raced on tracks that are ten furlongs or less in circumference. This makes the Munster National at Limerick next month look like a logical short term target.

Monterey Bay had won three of his previous four starts and is also a very progressive sort. His official handicap rating massively understates his true ability if the clock is any guide. So I'd bet on him winning a big handicap chase on one of his next few starts.

GEORGE WASHINGTON IS OVER-RATED

George Washington (36) finally ran a vaguely decent time to take the National Stakes in rather unimpressive style. I strongly suspect that the speed rating he earned from me here reflects his true level of ability, and that means he's barely Group class and has been lucky to come up against soft fields in Group 1 company.

The whole reason I go to the bother of making speed ratings is that my experience tells me fast horses run fast times. George Washington has failed to run a really fast time in any of his five starts to date. I just cannot take him seriously as a Guineas candidate.

KINGSDALE OCEAN IS UNDER-RATED

KINGSDALE OCEAN (36) is a whole lot faster than most people seem to rate him if race times are anything to go by. He won a Curragh juvenile maiden in faster time than a Premier Handicap run over the same distance half an hour later. My interpretation of his time is that he's pattern class and well worth following.

COLLIER HILL LOOKS A MAJOR PLAYER IN THE MELBOURNE CUP

I'm an avid collector of unusual statistics. And I uncovered a fascinating one prior to the Irish Leger. This was the fact that Aiden O'Brien not trained the winner of a Group race for older horses beyond a mile and a half as far back as I could check (1994). He was represented by Yeats in the big Curragh race and sure enough he recorded O'Brien's 34th successive loss in such races.

YEATS (36) actually ran a good race to finish a close fourth off a lengthy break. He earned a big speed rating from me when taking the Coronation Cup earlier this season and would be an interesting proposition back over a shorter trip. I suspect he only ran so close at the extended distance here because the pace wasn't that strong.

The winner COLLIER HILL (37) has previously earned several speed ratings of 40 and 41 from me and is one of the most consistent horses in training. He has done nothing wrong this season at all. In a string of big races he's either won or run close while earning a top class speed rating from me. I fancy his chances in the Melbourne Cup as the Australian horses just don't stay as well as the Europeans.

It was disappointing to see VINNIE ROE (36) lose so narrowly in a race he's made his own. He too has run a whole lot faster previously and might well have won but for an interrupted preparation. The plan is to give Vinnie Roe one more shot at the Melbourne Cup. If it came up soft he'd surely have a major chance. But on fast ground I suspect he'd get done for speed once more, quite possibly by Collier Hill again.

HARD ROCK CITY CAN KEEP ON WINNING

HARD ROCK CITY (39) stretched his unbeaten run to four with a win in a valuable handicap at Leopardstown. In doing so he ran a time that earned a Group class speed rating from me. He is apparently going to be stepped up to Group company next time and my ratings say that’s the right move.

Runner-up SOCIETY HOSTESS (39) ran exceptionally fast for a three year old filly and would be a slam dunk to take a Listed race against her own sex.

THE PACE BEAT AZAMOUR

I mentioned here before that I though Azamour (37) was one of those horses that needed a strong pace to run to his best. If the clock is anything to go by he didn’t get it in the Irish Champion Stakes and this explains his sub-par effort.

Watching Azamour win the King George I gained the strong impression that stamina was his strong suit. This run confirms my view. The trouble is I wouldn’t know where to run him now. If he goes to the Breeders’ Cup or the Arc he may well get a slow pace. He may also get soft ground at Longchamp. If he were mine I’d either retire him or wait till next year.

Oratorio (38) won the race and has still to earn anything better than a group 3 speed rating from me. I suspect the explanation is that he’s best off a slow pace.

MOTIVATOR (38) has run a Group run time before. This was in the Derby over two furlongs longer. So he did well to get so close given the pace over this trip. I’d have to give him a shot in the Arc off this run.

ALEXANDER GOLDRUN (37) did run well to finish third. It’s hard for a horse to gain as much ground as she did into an accelerating pace – especially when denied a clear run. I can see her winning yet another big ten furlong race before the season is out.

DON’T TRUST THE MATRON FORM

Any horse is hard to beat if it’s allowed an uncontested lead off a slow pace. And that’s just what happened with Attraction (34) in the Matron Stakes according to my speed ratings. I recall vividly how Attraction wilted last time out when pressed early on and am concerned that she’ll do so again if something takes her on for the lead again next time.

Chic (33) had run a big Group 1 time to win her previous start against colts. I say she can turn the tables on Attraction and will be very hard to beat next time.

CHELSEA ROSE TOUGH TO BEAT IN BLANDFORD STAKES

I gave CHELSEA ROSE (40) a big write up here when she earned a Group 1 class speed rating from me to beat Merger at Leopardstown. The runner-up has since flopped in America. But Chelsea Rose went on to defeat Shalapour and Vinnie Roe recently. And last Sunday she again earned what is a Group 1 class speed rating for a filly when taking a hot renewal of the Dance Design Stakes at the Curragh.

Chelsea Rose didn't run quite as fast here as she had at Leopardstown (where I gave her a rating of 42). But she won quite easily and her trainer is convinced she'll do a bit better on easier ground. She now looks the one they all have to beat in the upcoming Blandford Stakes. I'd also give her a big chance of adding another top level prize to last year's Moyglare success when she tackles a Group 1 at the Cappannelle on October 23rd.

PICTAVIA (38) earned the biggest speed rating I’ve ever given her to chase Chelsea Rose home. She’d run third in a sub-[ar renewal of the Oaks at Epsom but this was a better effort. It could be that it is the blinkers that have improved her. Or perhaps it is the cut back in distance. Whatever the reason Pictavia ran fast enough here to take a Group race for fillies – something I’d bet on her doing before the season is out.

RUMPLESTILSKIN NOT THAT FAST

The field for this year’s Moyglare Stud Stakes was a weak one according to my speed figures. In fact the rank outsider Ugo Fire (33) was the only entrant that had earned anything close to a pattern class speed rating from me. She very nearly won, but her proximity to the winner Rumplestilskin together with the time of the race suggest my pre-race figures were right – this really was a sub-par Moyglare.

I’m not at all convinced we’ve seen next year’s 1,000 Guienas winner really strut her stuff in a top race yet. I don’t like Rumplestilskin and I’m still not convinced Flashy Wings will stay.