MASTEROFTHEHORSE BETTER PROSPECT THAN SEA THE STARS

As a producer of speed ratings I hate slow run races with a passion because they make it hard to figure out how good a winner is. In addition tactics can give a horse a serious edge in a slow run race and make it appear better than it actually is.

Slow run races are so common with two year olds that I've adopted a new policy this season of

making a speed rating for the last three furlongs, adding it to the rating for the full distance and dividing by two. This usually gives a pretty good idea of how fast a race would have been. And it suggests the Beresford Stakes was one of the better two year old races we've seen this season.

MOURAYAN (37) was the horse that benefited most from the way the race was run as he stole a march on his rivals by kicking first three furlongs out. It's tough to peg back a horse that grabs a decent lead and first run in a sprint finish, so the fact that his stablemate SEA THE STARS (38) was able to catch him and win the race suggests he may well be quite a bit better.

Both Sea The Stars and Mourayan look good prospects for middle distance races next term. But I'd be surprised if the third placed MASTEROFTHEHORSE (37) didn't turn out better than either of them. He was caught flat footed when the sprint began but was picking up best of all towards the finish. In a more strongly run race or over a longer trip I'm convinced he'd have won this nicely.

Masterofthehorse looks likely to need every inch of a mile and a half next year. I suspect he'll get beat over ten furlongs, just as his sister Alexandrova was. But over the Derby trip he looks quite some prospect.

CHINTZ A FUTURE MIDDLE DISTANCE PROSPECT

CHINTZ (36) is a great big strapping sort that's built for middle distances. She's been very consistent this season over trips that are clearly on the short side for her. But the strong early pace and yielding ground finally brought her stamina into play in the Group 3 Weld Park Stakes at the Curragh. She was always prominent and picked up strongly in the closing stages to win clearly and full of run.

Chintz is a bit big too be handling Epsom. But her entry in the Irish Oaks looks more than justified on this showing.

HOW GOOD IS PURSUIT OF GLORY?

PURSUIT OF GLORY (34) clocked a Listed class time when breaking her maiden over six furlongs on Dundalk's Polytrack. And I have little doubt that she can run a fair bit faster, especially over a longer trip. She's a good sized filly with a deep chest who surely wants at least a mile.

Settled in fourth early on, Pursuit Of Glory was clearly moving better than any of her rivals as they entered the straight. It looked like her jockey Johnny Murtagh was going to switch her around her rivals to ensure a trouble free passage. But then he seemed to change his mind in an effort to teach her something and asked her to take a gap between horses just before the furlong pole. She went through it readily and soon drew well clear, with Murtagh simply waving his stick at her two or three times. She passed the post full of running with her ears pricked.

I really can't say how good Pursuit Of Glory is on the basis of this run. But you'd have to be pretty brave to bet against her in anything other than a Group 1 next time, particularly if she steps up to seven furlongs or a mile.

ANOTHER HUGE RUN FROM SEPTIMUS

Over the last year Aidan O'Brien has introduced and perfected a technique that has revolutionized the way Group 1 races beyond sprint trips are run. He's managed to counter an alarming trend towards slow run races by introducing the concept of pacemaking teams.

In the past jockeys would ignore pacemakers more often than not in the invariably correct belief that they would come back to the field. But O'Brien's idea of fielding one weak pacemaker and one strong one has changed all that. The weak pacemaker takes the field along to past halfway, the strong one takes over and finally the stable star goes into the lead. This coordinated approach seems to almost guarantee a strongly run race which ensures the best horse wins. And since the best horse is so often trained by Aidan O'Brien it's produced fantastic results for the stable.

The approach worked yet again when SEPTIMUS (42) blew home by thirteen lengths in the Irish St Leger, earning one of the biggest speed ratings I've awarded all season.

Seamus Heffernan rode Septimus out all the way to the line, opening up a rapidly widening margin. In doing so he enabled the Coolmore horse to clearly demonstrate that he is one of the best stayers we've seen in the last decade.

I concede that the tight turns and short homestraight at Flemington might not suit Septimus ideally. The likelihood of fast ground and a sprint finish would hardly play to his strengths either. But the Australians are so weak at two miles and Septimus so smart that the stable should surely stick to plan A and forge ahead with their original intention of going for the Melbourne Cup if at all possible.

Certainly Septimus would be an interesting candidate for the Arc, especially if the ground came up soft. But you have to wonder whether any of his potential pacemakers would get into the race. If they didn't Septimus could easily find himself done for a turn of foot at the finish by several rivals.

That said, I've always wanted to see Septimus given a shot at a big mile and a half race. I reckon he could win one if his shrewd trainer could engineer a strong pace.

DONT TRUST THE NATIONAL STAKES FORM

I concede that it's hard to assess the times of a meeting where the ground was clearly getting slower with every race. But I very much doubt that either Materscraftsman (35) or Shaweel (35) deserve anything like a Group 1 rating for fighting out the finish of this year's National Stakes. Both had earned a top speed rating of 35 from me before, and a projection from the best previous rating of the fourth horse Indian Sun suggests they did exactly the same this time around.

My gut feel from watching the race is that Matercraftsman and Shaweel benefited from having each other and the rail to race against. In the boglike conditions it looked like a major disadvantage for third placed ARAZAN (32) to be adrift on his own towards the centre of the course. It wouldn't have mattered so much on fast ground. But on this going the extra edge of having something to race against looked to count for a whole lot more than normal.

Arazan had earned a Group 1 speed rating from me for his win in the Futurity Stakes on his previous start. And I'm convinced he'll turn out to be much better than the two that beat him.

LUSH LASHES DOES IT DESPITE THE GROUND

I felt totally confident about drawing a line through the name of LUSH LASHES (39) before the Matron Stakes as I was certain the ground would be too soft for her. But despite being delayed because of heavy rain race times showed that the course was actually good, though slightly on the dead side.

The ground was slow enough to blunt the turn of foot Lush Lashes is normally able to produce. But that didn't stop her grinding out another Group 1 win from the smart NAHOODH (39).

Lush Lashes keeps on earning the same speed rating from me. But she has such a turn of foot and has looked so impressive that I'm convinced she can go quicker on faster ground.

The Dubai Duty Free looks a very good long term target for Lush Lashes as it's invariably run on the fast ground she needs. The Hong Kong Cup looks a logical option for the same reason. If she gets her ground in the Prix L'Opera Lush Lashes will deserve to be favourite there.

Had the ground had been just a bit slower Nahoodh would almost certainly have won. She still ran a big race to go under only narrowly.

If she hadn't been denied a clear run when going under in a photo in one race Nahoodh would have won all three times she'd previously run on what I rate genuinely good or slower ground on anything but her seasonal debut. Her need for a slower surface rules out the big international prizes that Lush Lashes can shoot for. However there are still plenty of European options left for Nahoodh. The Sun Chariot Stakes is the most obvious. But I still believe she can get ten furlongs. So I'm rather more interested in her entry for the Champion Stakes. That race often goes to a filly and produces good or softer ground most years.

LISTEN (37) ran a seriously promising race to finish a very close fifth on her first start in a year.

Early on Listen was last. But around the home turn she made a pretty big move to range up alongside Nahoodh in mid field. Turning in the field then kicked away from her again. However she still wasn't done. She rallied in the closing stages to close the gap all the way to the line, despite looking to lose concentration at one point and only being ridden with hands and heels.

I don't know for sure that Listen needs cut in the ground or longer than a mile. I'll trust to her shrewd connections to place her correctly next time. And wherever she runs I'll be seriously interested in her chances.

NEW APPROACH IS GETTING A LOT MORE PROFESSIONAL

The Irish Champion Stakes looked rather a gift for NEW APPROACH (36) after Duke Of Marmalade was scratched. And the sad thing is the ground might just have been fast enough for his rival.

In any event New Approach duly won what turned out to be rather a messy race. The early pace wasn't strong and the contest developed into a sprint from the three furlong marker. As a result the final time wasn't great and the lengths between the runners at the finish were compressed. But the really interesting thing was how well New Approach settled. He was seeing plenty of daylight early on but shoed no sign of fighting his jockey despite the moderate gallop. The old New Approach would surely have pulled like a train.

New Approach always looked like winning the dash to the line and was so full of run at the finish he took a long time to be pulled up. Indeed this was the only time he showed his old tendencies of throwing his head about.

I rather like the idea of New Approach going for the Breeders' Cup Classic. He showed that he can handle tight turns when winning the Derby and has always looked to have any amount of ability. I can readily see an Irish 1-2 for the big American race with New Approach and Henrythenavigator fighting it out now that the contest is to be run on a surface that should give a big edge to the Europeans.

AGAIN - AGAIN

The Debutante Stakes has long been the key prep for the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes. In fact before this year the Moyglare had been been won four times out of four by horses that had earned Racing Post ratings of 103 or higher in the Debutante Stakes.

AGAIN (37) made it five out of five, keeping on strongly despite running green in front to hold the late charge of SHIMAH (36).

Again is a rangy, scopey sort that's clearly going to be wanting middle distances next year. Her trainer David Wachman suggested that this might well be her last race of the season. That sounds like a good plan to me because on faster ground in the Fillies Mile or Marcel Boussac I can easily see Again getting done for speed. She's done as much as she can this year by winning a Group 1. Next year a loss or two over a mile won't dent her stud value like it would now because everyone will rightly say she wants longer.

I still don't know whether Epsom is the ideal course for a horse built like Again. But the Irish Oaks certainly looks a very good idea.

I confess that I was surprised to see Shimah prove effective over seven furlongs as she's built for speed and none of her siblings stayed beyond sprint trips. But she managed the feat by being held up for a late run.

I very much doubt that Shimah will stay a mile next year. So if she's ever going to win a Group 1 it's going to have to be the Cheveley Park Stakes back over six furlongs next month. She's the fastest entrant in that race on my ratings and ran quicker than most Chevelely Park winners when scoring last time. She'll be favourite, and deservedly so.

LOOK BUSY SMART OVER FIVE

LOOK BUSY (40) clocked a fast time when winning the Group 3 Flying Five Stakes over five furlongs at the Curragh. She has now won all six times she's run five furlongs this season. In fact, if Look Busy hadn't run green when second by half a length in two contests she would probably have won ten of the last eleven times she's run five furlongs following a recent run. The sole horse to defeat her fair and square was Captain Gerrard, who I rate one of Europe's top sprinters. She does look a bit interesting for the Abbaye off this performance.