YES, ST NICHOLAS ABBEY IS THAT GOOD

It is depressingly difficult to make accurate speed ratings for races at the Curragh as they move the rails so much and use different parts of the course so often. It's easy to get confused.

I was certainly puzzled on seeing that ST NICHOLAS ABBEY (39) ran 2.7 seconds slower for a mile than the big sales race winner did over the same distance at the Curragh last Sunday. Then I looked at the videos and saw the reason. They used different parts of the course for the two races.

However the final three furlongs were the same in each contest. So it's very interesting to note that St Nicholas Abbey covered them around 2.4 seconds faster than the winner of the sales race. Even assuming his first five furlongs were relatively the same this still points to a big Group 1 rating for the Coolmore colt.

St Nicholas Abbey is a classy, strong, mature colt that's obviously built for middle distances. He looked impressive as he cruised away to win narrowly but comfortably from the British raider Layali Al Andalus. I think the big market move for him in the Derby was fully justified.

LAYALI AL ANDALUS (38) showed why he's so highly regarded by connections to take second. He's probably not a Group 1 horse but still looks a smart prospect for next season.

KEYS PRIDE CAN FOLLOW UP

Seasonality is a powerful factor that drives the form of many horses. And one that demonstrates this is KEYS PRIDE (37) who won the valuable Dawn Milk Handicap Chase at Listowel for the second year running.

Keys Pride, like a lot of horses, seems to be at her best in the Spring and Autumn when it's not too hot or cold. But she appears to carry things to an extreme in that all her wins have come in either May or September. She's won seven from nine in these months and finished second in her two losses. She's blanked in seventeen starts in the other ten months of the year.

However it is very rare for a horse to have such a tightly defined period where it can race effectively. And the fact that Keys Pride has so far never run in October makes me think that she'll be able to hold her form for another few weeks yet. If she can then she's got a great shot of winning another decent handicap chase as I awarded her a Listed class speed rating for this win which suggests her official mark will understate her ability by at least a stone even with a big penalty.

CLOWANCE GETS INTERESTING

CLOWANCE (40) put up a remarkable performance to run a half length second in the Irish St Leger off a 15 month lay-off. The searching early pace, soft ground and extended distance clearly played to her strengths. Stone last early on, she made eye catching progress up the straight and looked set to win only for ALANDI (40) to rally when she got up to him.

Clowance clearly appreciates cut in the ground. But she doesn't show knee action like the winner and has won on good ground in the past. She's still in the Arc but her future clearly lies over longer distances.

Alandi is a terrific mudlark. He's now won all four times he's run on soft or heavy ground and lost the three times he's been asked to tackle faster surfaces. He's got a really long stride and clearly stays all day as he sat pretty close to a pace that was clearly a bit too fast for the distance but kept on going.

SCHIAPARELLI (37) was the horse that set the pace. And he looked likely to win all the way up to the furlong pole. That was when the effort of going a bit too fast told and he tired.

When I first started analysing the Irish Champion Stakes I was keen to oppose SEA THE STARS (43). I thought he'd had another hard race when winning the Juddmonte International and that he wouldn't have recovered in time. Then, after watching the video of his York win over and over, I steadily became convinced that his jockey and trainer were right to say he ran lazily and actually had a fair bit in hand. The fact that he was reported to have put on weight since the win clinched the arguement for me. Clearly I'd been wrong to knock his chances of continued success.

I need hardly tell you how he won. He came off a scorching pace to beat the Irish Derby winner FAME AND GLORY (42) to score with a bit in hand.

It was only at Sandown, where Rip Van Winkle forced him to go for everything and hit a speed rating of 45, that Sea The Stars has been fully extended. So I see no reason why he shouldn't recover as easily from this run as he did from his York success where I gave him the same rating.

Sea The Stars is undoubtedly one of the best racehorses we've seen in recent years. He's shown remarkable versatility, running top class races at every distance from 7 to 12 furlongs and on every type of going from firm to heavy.

I'm not really convinced by the suggestion from Sea The Stars' connections that he's best on a fast surface. His dam showed massive improvement to take the Arc on heavy ground and her eight offspring have all shown smart form on yielding or softer ground.

I cannot knock such a brilliant horse any more. But I do have this nagging doubt about Sea The Stars being able to handle big competitive fields around a turn. All his siblings were smart pattern racers, but each of them failed to win in a combined total of thirteen Group races with more than a dozen runners around a turn. There also still has to be some doubt about whether he truly stays a mile and a half in a strongly run race. So I may well be able to convince myself to oppose him at short odds if he lines up at Longchamp. And I may well try to bolster my confidence about doing so by citing the stats which show only three of the eleven horses to attempt the Irish Champion Stakes/Arc double have succeeded. But the truth is Sea The Stars is a genuine Champion and genuine Champions don't often get beat.

Runner up Fame And Glory is obviously a smart horse. But for Sea The Stars beating him here and at Epsom he would have won all seven of his starts. He's clearly been kept fresh for an Autumn campaign and must have a shot both at Longchamp and in the Breeders' Cup Turf.

This was a slight step backwards for Mastercraftsman who chased the first two home. Perhaps he stuck too close to a pace that was too strong. Maybe he was feeling the effects of his tough race at York eighteen days earlier. Either way my suspicion is that he's now done winning for the season. And I have to add that he's been very well placed to win two Group 1's this year and another two last year, given the outstanding quality of his generation.

ARCTIC HARD TO ASSESS

I confess that I find it hard to put a proper number on the performance of ARCTIC (35) who won last week's Round Tower Stakes at the Curragh. In a truly run race he was always moving best and cleared away to win nicely on the bottomless ground.

However I'm always wary of going overboard about horses that win on such heavy ground, especially when they race off the rail at the Curragh where the ground is often faster in such conditions. This being so, I'm going to hold off jumping onto this particular bandwagon.

TERMAGANT WANTS LONGER

The atrocious conditions for the Moyglare Stud Stakes turned the race into a real test of stamina despite a modest early pace. So I'm not too sure it's wise to go overboard about the performance of the winner TERMAGANT (28). She is clearly built and bred for at least ten furlongs and won the race by outstaying her rivals.

That said Termagant is clearly useful and looks a good prospect for middle distance races next year.