IRELAND SEPTEMBER 2010

CHRYSANTHEMUM SHOULD IMPROVE

You can go crazy trying to make speed ratings for races run at the Curragh. Rail movements can make a big difference to the advertised distances and different parts of the track ride faster than others.

Even when two races are run over the same distance on the same card it can be tricky because the jockeys can choose not to take the horses across to the stands rail even though it tends to ride faster in wet weather. This is what happened in the Weld Park Stakes won by Chrysanthemum. So the fact they ran a second slower than older horses in the next race means little because in the later contest the runners raced on the opposite rail.

My best guess is that CRYSANTHEMUM (35) merits an average Group 3 juvenile fillies speed rating for her win. But it does seem clear she can run faster.

Chrysanthemum looked rather clueless and wandered around when asked to go and win her race and never seemed to be getting the idea that she needed to quicken up. On pulling up her ears were pricked and she looked fresh as a daisy, which she had no business doing at the end of a strongly run race on soft ground. Clearly she had a lot more she could have given.

Chrysanthemum looks to have the build of a middle distance horse to me. She's got a fair bit of size and substance about her too. So I wouldn't be surprised if she turned out to be very smart next year.

SANS FRONTIERES TEAM SHOULD STICK TO MELBOURNE CUP PLAN

SANS FRONTIERES (40) looked a good thing to win the Irish St Leger on the form he'd shown in his last two runs. And so it proved. He was held up off the slow pace and Olivier Peslier used his superior finishing speed to win the race cheekily by under a length.

The early pace was too slow to produce a decent time but I'm happy to go with the rating that lines of form suggest.

I can understand how tempting it must be for the connections of Sans Frontieres to abandon their plans for the Melbourne Cup and shoot for a big international mile and a half race like the Canadian International, the Japan Cup, the Hong Kong Cup or even the Arc. The class and pace Sans Frontieres showed once more here suggests clearly that he could cut back in trip to take one of those races.

I recognise that it's expensive to make the trip down under, but I think it would be a shame to waste the ideal preparation Sans Frontieres has had for the big Australian race. Like most past winners of the Melbourne Cup he's been stepped up gradually in distance all season - starting off at nine furlongs and ending up here at fourteen. He has the turn of foot and the ability needed to win 'the race that stops a nation.' And if his connections want to shoot for a big mile and a half prize why not take in the Caulfield Cup on the way to the big race? There's plenty of time for other big mile and a half races next year.

Runner up PROFOUND BEAUTY (40) has always looked a slightly doubtful stayer off a strong early gallop at the Irish Leger trip to me. So the way the race was run suited her ideally. She has a terrific turn of foot and was swinging along on the bridle from the time the sprint finish began half a mile out. She was unlucky to be up against a stayer who probably has a better finishing kick than any horse in the division for years. She has to have a decent shot in the Melbourne Cup now, having gone close in the race before. And of course her chance would be enhanced if Sans Frontieres does skip the race.

I liked the zest with which FLYING CROSS (39) kept on to finish third to the two older horses. He still looked a little green while doing so and my impression is that there's a bit of improvement in him.

Seeing that he shows such obvious knee action I doubt that Flying Cross will be able to reproduce this level of form on a fast surface. But on this sort of surface I can readily see him coming back to take this race next year. Meanwhile if came up soft for the Prix Chaudenay I'd like his chances.

ZOFFANY CAN BOUNCE BACK IN THE DEWHURST

ZOFFANY (30) had looked a future star when winning five times before he flopped in the National Stakes. And I'm convinced trainer Aidan O' Brien was right to blame the soft ground for his defeat there.

After moving strongly early on, Zoffany floundered, started throwing up loads of divots and wandered slightly from side to side when asked to go and pick up the leaders in the last couple of furlongs. He eventually did gain a couple of places late to take third but wasn't given that hard a time of things.

My past ratings for Zoffany put him a couple of lengths ahead of what looked like a sub-par winner in Pathfork. So I'd bet on him turning this form around if the pair meet again in the Dewhurst. I still think he's the top two year old and that he'll prove it if given another chance on faster ground.

TREMENDOUS RUN BY CAPE BLANCO - BUT SURELY HE NEEDS A REST

CAPE BLANCO (44) put up one of the best performances by a three year old in recent years when blitzing his rivals nearly six lengths in the Irish Champion Stakes. However the idea of him recovering in time to produce his best in the Arc seems fanciful to me.

You can see the grounds for concern in the sectional times. Cape Blanco ran the first seven furlongs at a rate of 12 seconds a furlong. He took 12.3 seconds to run the eighth furlong, 13.2 to run the ninth and 14.3 to run the last. In other words he almost ran himself to a standstill and had a very hard race.

I suggested after his Irish Derby win that Cape Blanco had such a hard race there that he wouldn't recover in time for the King George. It certainly looked that way because he staggered to an eleven length defeat by a horse that became the first aged four or more to win the race without previously placing in a Group 1.

The six week break Cape Blanco had after the King George enabled him to recover his form for the Irish Champion Stakes. But there's only four weeks to the Arc and that just doesn't seem long enough.

In this regard it's worth bearing in mind that Aidan O’Brien’s 3YO’s tend to be over the top after September. Just one of his 48 runners in British, Irish and French Group 1’s from October onwards have scored.

Aidan O'Brien already seems to have tagged Jan Vermeer as his big gun for the older age group next season. So I imagine we won't be seeing Cape Blanco again after this season.

So if, as I suspect, he runs unplaced in the Arc, I do hope his huge performance here is not dismissed as some sort of fluke. He is a seriously smart horse whose only two losses in eight starts to date were perfectly excusable.

In his most recent loss in the King George I'm convinced he simply hadn't recovered from his exertions in the Irish Derby 27 days before.

Cape Blanco's other loss came in the Prix du Jockey Club where the sheer volume of smart French three year olds whose owners wanted to run persuaded France Galop to ditch the normal safety limit and allow 22 horses to line up. This caused plenty of traffic problems and Cape Blanco was one of the worst sufferers - taking a hefty bump as he swung wide for his run entering the straight.

A top French trainer said afterwards that the safety limit should never have been ignored and that any horse which had to run wide in the Prix du Jockey Club, as Cape Blanco did, had no chance. I think there's plenty of merit to that idea, so I believe it's fair to draw a line through is disappointing effort.

As far as I'm concerned Cape Blanco beat Derby winner Workforce fair and square in the Dante earlier this season. The widespread belief is that the reason Workforce was beaten that day is he got his tongue over the bit and was hard to steer. People point to the fact he showed a rather high head carriage in the race as a sign of this.

Personally I just don't see it. Workforce also carried his head rather high when winning the Derby. He raced against the rail in the Dante and kept perfectly straight in the last furlong and a half, during which time his jockey was able to really get after him. It looked to me that he was simply unable to go with Cape Blanco because he was up against a superior horse.

The form that Cape Blanco showed winning the Irish Derby worked out very well. The second and third would have both won next time out but for bumping into probably the three top three year olds from France. Here he showed just how good he really is.

Runner up RIP VAN WINKLE (40) was held up quite some way off the lead before beginning what initially looked like developing into a big move approaching the home turn. But his run flattened out as the effect of the strong gallop told and in the end it looked to be pure class that enabled him to claw his way past a line of three borderline Group 1 horses to snatch second place close home.

I confess that I thought Rip Van Winkle only managed to scramble home from a rather weak bunch in the Juddmonte because he would have preferred a stronger early pace. But here he got a strong early pace and run pretty much the same.

I now also question my previous belief that Rip Van Winkle will be suited by a step back up to a mile and a half. Thanks to the furious gallop this race was an unusually tough test of stamina for a ten furlong contest, and it didn't seem to help Rip Van Winkle at all.

So far this season Rip Van Winkle has got beat eight lengths at Royal Ascot, comfortably beaten by Canford Cliffs in the Sussex, scrambled home from a sub-par field in the Juddmonte and hammered by his stablemate here. He's simply not shown the same brilliance he did last season when winning the Sussex in such fast time or when being the only horse to make a race of it with Sea the Stars all season in the Eclipse. Perhaps he'll bounce back but I'm getting sceptical.

AWAIT THE DAWN COULD BE A GROUP 1 HORSE

AWAIT THE DAWN (38) put up an impressive performance to take the Group 3 Kilternan Stakes by nine lengths. He ended up clocking a time that's simply average for the class. But he was eased up in the last furlong, and I think it's fair to say he could have run it at the same rate he did the previous one but for this. If he had he'd have earned a good Group 2 rating of 40 from me.

At no point in the race was Await The Dawn doing much more than just lobbing along. And it's clear from his physique that the ten furlongs he ran is very much on the short side for him. Add to this the fact it was only his second start of the year and I see no reason why he can't come back to win something big over a longer distance before the season is over.

It's obvious from the way he lumbers along that Await The Dawn has little in the way of acceleration. But he looks to possess abundant stamina.

He is a great big, tall, staying sort who has appeared potentially top class before. This was when he won most impressively on his racecourse debut at Naas last year. Always moving best there, he simply cruised clear by four lengths from the useful Banyan Tree who himself drew eight lengths ahead of the rest. He looked like a Group 1 horse that day.

That race was over a mile on soft ground, so it provided a sufficient test of stamina for Banyan Tree. Next time out he encountered fast ground when cut back to seven furlongs for the Champagne Stakes. He couldn't go the pace in the closing stages there after repeatedly being bumped by fourth placed Roi de Vitesse.

On his seasonal debut two weeks ago Await The Dawn only had to be ridden out to win a Conditions race over ten furlongs at Cork.

There's no big problem that's kept Await The Dawn off the track till now. Trainer Aidan O'Brien explained earlier this season "He knocked a splint during the winter and has just started back. He's a fine big horse and has done very well from two to three. He won easily over 1m at Naas on his debut last season and where he'll start off will depend on how he progresses."

O'Brien clearly thinks a good deal of Await The Dawn as he has him entered up in stacks of Group races - including two Group 1's. There must be a chance he'll be fully effective over a mile and a half. If so he could well become one of the top middle distance horses next year. My feeling though is that he's going to need a mile and three quarters to win a Group 1.