ARAZAN LOOKS LIKE A DERBY WINNER

ARAZAN (39) was awfully impressive when winning the Futurity Stakes at the Curragh. The way he was able to quicken in heavy ground was amazing.

The pace wasn't strong to halfway. But from there Arazan came home three full seconds quicker than they did in the handicap over the same trip, which is almost impossible. Even allowing for just half the normal adjustment I'd make for his finishing effort indicates this was a serious Group 1 class performance.

Watching Arazan power away from the useful RYEHILL DREAMER (35) had me thinking that I might well be watching a Derby winner. Certainly he has a fair bit of speed. But he looks like a middle distance horse to me, which isn't surprising as one of his half brothers is the decent three mile hurdler Ardalan.

Then again Arazan's half brother Azamour always looked like a middle distance runner yet was able to win the St James's Palace Stakes over a mile before stepping up to longer trips. On balance though I'd be surprised if Arazan wasn't most effective at longer than a mile next year.

I imagine the Irish rather than the Epsom Derby would be the target for Arazan next year as I'd say he'd prefer a galloping track on looks. Meanwhile the National Stakes looks his for the taking because this is a top class horse without question.

HASANKA MAKES USE OF HER STAMINA

I've probably written a bit too much about HASANKA (38) over the last couple of seasons. But I have to mention the filly again after her comfortable win in the Ballycullen Stakes at the Curragh.

The extended distance and heavy ground seemed sure to bring the best out of Hasanka. So it's perhaps not surprising she was able to stride away in the closing stages to win easing up. But the time she clocked was unusually good in the circumstances. She earned a rating of 39 from me last year and would have hit the same number again if she hadn't been so heavily eased.

I'd still like to see Hasanka shoot for the Irish Leger and would rate her with a serious chance there if it came up soft. She may not have much finishing speed, but over a long trip on soft ground there are few that can get past her.

KATIYRA BEST OVER SHORTER TRIPS

KATIYRA (37) won the Listed Hurry Harriet Stakes at Gowran Park with a fair bit in hand. So I suspect she can run a fair bit quicker.

Always prominent, Katiyra had all her rivals in trouble when she kicked on early in the straight and only had to be kept up to her work to stay clear. If the ground hadn't been so slow her jockey would no doubt have been able to take things even easier in the closing stages. As it was he still only had to show her the whip a couple of times abd ride her out with hands and heels.

I think it was very interesting that Katiyra's jockey and trainer both said after the race that the filly was probably suited to shorter trips like this rather than the mile and a half over which she ran third in the Oaks. She certainly earned a bigger speed rating from me than she did at Epsom or in the Irish Oaks at the Curragh.

Katiyra's only loss in three starts at trips short of twelve furlongs came in the 1000 Guineas trial where she went under by just half a length to Caribbean Sunset who went on to lose the Iris 1000 Guienas by the same margin.

There are some smart ten furlong fillies around. But on this run Katiyra showed that she's likely to be competitive with all of them. The Prix L'Opera is her obvious target, and it's worth noting that Katiyra is Breeders' Cup nominated which means she could get into the big American race without the need for a huge supplementary entry fee. Meanwhile though there are more ten furlong races at a slightly lower level to be won with Katiyra starting with the Blandford Stakes at the Curragh next month.

DRUMBEAT HAS A SERIOUS TURN OF FOOT

DRUMBEAT (33) showed a remarkable turn of foot to win a seven furlong juvenile maiden at Gowran Park, bursting through to leave his rivals standing in the last furlong.

He's a muscular good looking horse that clearly has real speed to win like this off a slow early pace. So I can see why jockey Seamus Heffernan suggested afterwards that a cut back to six furlongs would be no problem. That would be a pretty bold move given Drumbeat's stout pedigree but I'd like to see it tried.

Drumbeat came home way faster over the last three furlongs than any winner on the card. He had to fight his way through a narrow gap a furlong out and only grabbed the lead with less than half a furlong to run but sprinted clear from there as if he'd just started the race to score by two clear lengths. He won with a good deal in hand and whatever distance he tries next I'll be interested in his chances.

DOHASA SHOULD WIN GROUP RACES

DOHASA (38) won a valuable sprint handicap on Dundalk's Polytrack in a time that would win most Group 3 contests. He had to be niggled along to keep up early but came with a steady run down the outside up the straight to pick up the leaders and roll clear in the closing stages.

Cearly Dohasa needs a fast surface. He's now won four of the last five times he's run on Polytrack or on turf when the word 'firm' has appeared in the official going description. His sole recent loss on a fast surface came when he was squeezed for room but still ran three parts of a length second to a useful rival.

You wouldn't think that Dohasa is a sprinter when you look at him. He's a big, strong, tall, good-bodied sort that you could easily see jumping a hurdle. Indeed his dam was a hurdler as were three of her other seven offspring.

No doubt Dohasa will be tried over further than six furlongs in time, and I'll bet on him staying when he is. Meanwhile he remains a very interesting prospect for pattern sprints on fast ground.

FIERY LAD CAN RUN FASTER

BIG RUN BY CARRIBEAN SUNSET

CARRIBEAN SUNSET (40) earned one of the biggest speed ratings I've given a three year old filly all season when taking the Desmond Stakes by over four lengths. The way she kept going so strongly at the end of a fast run mile on heavy ground makes it clear that ten furlongs is probably going to be a better distance for her.

I like the idea of the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf being the big target for Carribean Sunset. The distance of that race should suit her. But I have to say I felt she didn't look to handle the tight turns of Hollywood Park too well when running fourth in the American Oaks. Then again it could be that the difficult journey she had over for that race caused her to run below form. In addition the course at Santa Anita, where the Breeders' Cup is to be run, features a long chute which makes its turf course somewhat more galloping in nature than Hollywood's.

On this run Carribean Sunset will have a serious shot in the Matron Stakes next month if there's cut in the ground and the pace is strong. Otherwise I suspect she'll get done for speed by a few of her rivals over the mile of that contest.

MORES WELLS LOVES LEOPARDSTOWN

MORES WELLS (41) clocked a seriously fast time to win the Ballyroan Stakes at Leopardstown for the second year in a row. He was always going strongly and forged clear up the straight after hitting the front over a quarter of a mile from the finish.

Clearly Mores Wells is very well suited by Leopardstown. His only loss in five starts at the course came in an incredibly slow run renewal of the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial won by Archipenko. He has yet to win in eight starts on other courses.

It could be that Mores Wells simply prefers going left handed as the only time he's run on a left handed track barring Leopardstown came when he ran a good second to Soldier Of Fortune on his racecourse debut at Navan in a race where the very smart Mourilyan finished third.

I know that Mores Wells ran third in the Irish St Leger at the Curragh last year. But if he were mine I'd give serious thought to taking up his entry in the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown as well. If it came up soft enough to make that race a real test of stamina Mores Wells would have a real chance.

In fact the first three finishers in the Ballyroan Stakes all look interesting propositions for upcoming Group 1 races.

The runner up WASHINGTON IRVING (39) chased his tearaway stablemate SAIL (33) as she set a scorching early pace. He tried to kick on when that one came back to the field entering the straight but couldn't quite go with the winner.

Washington Irving is a really good looking horse that clearly stays well. He has to be one of the leading contenders for the St Leger off this run.

Third placed PROFOUND BEAUTY (38) was under pressure a long way out but kept on well to just miss out on the runner up prize to a smart rival. He did his Melbourne Cup prospects no harm at all here as he displayed real stamina, having previously shown that he can produce the kind of finishing kick required to win off the slow early pace the Australian race is normally run at.

Sail had run three clunkers in a row following her success in the Cheshire Oaks but showed she's as good as ever here by running a good race after surely going off too fast. If she is not used as a pacemaker in future she should be able to win again in Listed or Group 3 company.

AGAIN LOOKS A SERIOUS OAKS PROSPECT

AGAIN (37) clocked a proper Group 1 time to take the Debutante Stakes at Leopardstown. And sectional times show just how good a performance she put up. The Debutante featured a scorching early pace. They went a second quicker than either of the maiden races for the first four furlongs (both fair contests) but she was able to come home 0.6 seconds quicker than either of them over the final three furlongs.

The searching pace and soft ground made it a real test of stamina and that clearly suited Again. She was always going the best and kept going remarkably strongly given the ground and the pace to forge clear up the straight.

The other four horses to race produced by Again's dam all stayed a mile and a half, and I've little doubt that she will as well. She's a tall, rangy filly that showed real stamina here.

It's not often you can say a two year old filly is an Oaks prospect. But I think it's safe to say that about Again. Whether or not she'll be effective over the same distance of seven furlongs in the Moyglare Stud Stakes if the going ends up faster and the pace slower as seems likely I don't know. I rather suspect she could get done for speed in those circumstances.

Runner up OUI SAY OUI (34) had clocked a Group 1 time when scoring on her debut over a furlong shorter. She clearly stayed the longer trip here and looked good as she pulled away from the third in vain pursuit of the winner. But I suspect she'd have done better on a faster surface as she looks a pacier sort than the winner and much more of a Guineas than an Oaks prospect. I'd be rather interested in her chances of turning this form around on a faster surface in the Moyglare Stud Stakes.

RARE RANSOM (32) showed she stays well once more, keeping on well to fill third after perhaps sticking a little too close to an early pace that was arguably a bit too strong. I still see her as more of a horse for next season than this as I believe she'll need ten furlongs plus to produce her best.

CUIS GHAIRE (-1) had shown brilliant form in her previous starts but was under pressure a long way out, tired badly and finished far back. She was clinically abnormal after the race according to the vet and it looks like a combination of a hard campaign and soft ground put paid to her chances.

Over the last thirteen years only three of the 60 fillies with four or more previous runs that have tried to win Group races over seven furlongs or more before September have succeeded. The three that did win had all contested just the one Group race previously. Cuis Ghaire had run in three before tackling this race. And in her last one, despite the good run she put up, I didn't like the way she folded up so quickly when Rip Van Winkle challenged. It was also worrying that she ran around in the closing stages there, just as she'd done at Royal Ascot. It looks to me that she is now feeling the effects of all that racing against hot competition. Horses aren't machines. They can't sustain good form indefinitely. Sometimes they need resting.

Of course it could be that trainer Jim Bolger is right to put Cuis Ghaire's poor run down to the soft ground. She'd shown serious pace to accelerate off a slow early gallop in her last two starts. And horses with a turn of foot like hers tend to need fast ground. Even so I'd still like to see Cuis Ghaire rested now. If she has another run this term I think the best bet would be the Marcel Boussac in October. She could easily regain her reputation there if she's kept fresh for the race. But an other clunker in the Moyglare Stud Stakes could hurt her stud value significantly.

BLACK BEAR ISLAND A SERIOUS DERBY PROSPECT

Pretty much every two year old colt that Aidan O'Brien runs is a great big, tall, mature, rangy, powerful, muscular sort that looks like it's already three and wants a middle distance. But I'm slowly getting used to the idea that Coolmore tends to breed and buy really big and strong youngsters and that O'Brien's training methods leave plenty of beef on them. Clearly they can't all be Derby prospects.

However, seeing that BLACK BEAR ISLAND (36) is a full brother to High Chaparral and is a really tall, rangy and scopey sort, I've just got to believe he'll be aimed at the Derby rather than the Guineas if he proves to be good enough for the Classics.

My read of the sectional times Black Bear Island ran when hosing up over seven furlongs at Naas suggest that he is undoubtredly Group class and may very well be capable of winning at the top level.

The final time that Black Bear Island clocked was shy of pattern class. But that's only because the early pace wasn't strong. Howewver he finished really strongly up the straight, coming home a full second quicker over the final three furlongs than the useful Festival Princess did when winning the mile maiden and 2.7 seconds quicker than Kilmannin did in the handicap over a mile. The sectional timing formula I use to adjust the ratings for slow run two year old races points to this being a seriously good effort by Black Bear Island.

The interesting thing is that when he started to stride clear Black Bear Island was still racing greenly. He won the race easing up with a fair bit in hand, so he clearly has scope for improvement.

Black Bear Island is now joint favourite for the Derby with most firms. That certainly looks right to me. It's early days yet but he is the best Derby prospect we've seen so far. He does seem a bit disorganized and lacking in pace to win a big two year old race. But if it came up soft for a Group race over a mile or more I'd give him a shot. The race I'd be targeting with him this year is the Criterium de Saint-Cloud, at ten furlongs' the longest Group 1 race for two yearn olds on the planet.

MASTEROFTHEHORSE INTERESTING FOR RACING POST TROPHY

A day after Black Bear Island won impressively at Naas, Aidan O'Brien produced another seriously good prospect in MASTEROFTHEHORSE (35) who won a mile maiden at Gowran Park.

Black Bear Island is a brother to High Chaparall. Masterofthehorse is a brother to Alexandrova, and he looks much more the finished article at this stage. He accelerated away from his rivals in the closing stages like an old hande, showing no sign of greenness. He's a bit more elegantly put together too and looks built to produce a bit of speed rather than simply the raw power Black Bear Island appears designed for.

As is so often the case in two year old races, the early pace was slow. But Masterofthehorse came home over the last three furlongs a remarkable 1.4 seconds quicker than the very useful three year old Award Ceremony did in the Conditions race over a furlong less. This clearly indicates he is Group class. I concede I have to rate him just a bit behind Black Bear Island but my gut feel from watching the videos of both races is that Masterofthehorse will do better as a two year old. Indeed he's so pacey I wouldn't be too concerned about him cutting back to seven furlongs.

UNSUING HEROINE PROBABLY MORE A PARK HILL THAN A LEGER PROSPECT

With a bit of cut in the ground I though HASANKA (37) was a good thing to win the Group 3 Give Thanks Stakes at Cork even though the twelve furlongs was a bit on the short side for her. And the race certainly looked hers when she bounded into a two length lead halfway up the straight still full of running. However the three year old filly UNSUNG HEROINE (38) came out of the pack to run her down and win going away.

Unsung Heroine is now unbeaten in two starts and clearly stays really well. She's a deep chested sort that was being ridden along vigorously with fully half a mile to run. Her stamina finally kicked in just as Hasanka went clear and she ended up catching the older filly to win rather impressively.

Unsung Heroine was throwing her head about early on, so her jockey had no choice but to anchor her in behind the other runners to ensure she settled. Obviously she still has a few things to learn about racing.

There was talk of the St Leger or the Park Hill Stakes for Unsung Heroine, and surely it is the latter race which will afford her the best chance of staying unbeaten. Fourteen of the last 15 fillies to win the Leger had previously won a race which now holds Group 1 status. The lone exception was Cantelo who beat colts in a race that now holds Group 2 status (the Royal Lodge Stakes). This was only a Group 3 for fillies.

I dare say that Hasanka's connections would gladly trade a good deal of their filly's obvious stamina for just a bit more finishing speed. As it is she's always going to be vulnerable to a rival with a turn for foot, especially when she's racing at trips of a mile and a half or less, particularly on faster ground.

If she were mine I'd stick to plan A and go for the Irish St Leger with Hasanka. She might well place in that contest and thereby boost her stud value massively. It's just a pity there isn't a Group race for fillies on a really stiff track with an uphill finish over a mile and three quarters or more. She'd be a cert for such a race.

DUFF LOOKS GOOD FOR YORK

DUFF (38) has earned some big speed ratings from me in the past and did so again when taking a Listed race at Cork over a mile. He was clear and looked set to win by two or three lengths with a furlong to run. But he only just gets the mile according to trainer Edward Lynam, so he tired and just held on in a photo.

Last year Duff won the Listed City Of York Stakes at York in seriously fast time from an unusually good field for the class. On this run he must have a terrific shot of achieving the double in that race next time out.

RARE RANSOM IS GROUP CLASS

Dermot Weld is a near unstoppable force in maidens at the Galway Festival. So it's hardly a shock that he should produce one that runs away with a race in Group class time. The horse he did it with was RARE RANSOM (35) who set a strong pace and sustained it to power away from her rivals in the closing stages of a seven furlong contest.

My one concern is that Rare Ransom is built like a ten furlong horse. It could be that the combination of soft ground and a searching pace enabled her to show such good form over seven furlongs here. I worry that she'd get done for speed at the same distance in pattern company, especially on fast ground. It could be she won't really come into her own till next year when she gets the chance to go longer.

OSLOT COULD BE ANYTHING

OSLOT (38) clocked a good time to win the Galway Plate and is clearly a useful young chaser. Indeed if one photo finish had gone the other way he would be unbeaten in all six of his chase starts.

Here he jumped really well and looked set to score by an even bigger margin than he did when kicking on two out. At that stage he was cruising. He did look to be tiring in the closing stages but it may also be that he was simply idling after being in front for too long.

It's very hard to know just how good a horse like Oslot is or exactly what their preferences are. He's a pretty strong sort who sustained a searching gallop here. And I note with interest that his half brother Kadount has won over three miles and that four of the best five chasers by his sire to race in Britain beyond their novice season to date have all stayed three and a half miles. This being so I'd say that a big handicap over three miles plus like the Hennessy rather than a two and a half miler such as the Paddy Power Gold Cup would be his next logical target.