CITYSCAPE LOOKS MAIN DANGER TO FRANKEL IN QEII

There is a widespread belief that Italy's top races don't deserve Group 1 status and that the country rarely produces a horse that's up to international standard.

I've never been able to understand this view. I would have thought that the success of Italian horses like Electrocutionist, Rakti, Gladiatorus and Falbrav in some of the top international races would have proven Italy is perfectly capable of producing world class horses. In addition, as is the case everywhere, if there aren't enough local horses to ensure a Group 1 is up to standard you can be sure that the connections of foreign horses will spot this and send their horses to Italy for the race.

This was certainly the case in Italy's top mile race, the Group 1 Premio Vittoria di Capua when horses with good form in Group 1 company shipped in from Britain, Germany and the Czech republic.

The winner was DICK TURPIN (42), a horse I've had several theories about. He disproved most of them, along with the notion that he doesn't have a great turn of foot, when coming with a wet sail in the final furlong to get up on the line in a race where they ran 48.6 seconds for the first half mile and 44.6 seconds for the last half.

It does look rather significant that four of Dick Turpin's five wins since his 2YO days have come off breaks of 40 days or more. In fact since then he's won four times out of five off breaks that long at trips short of ten furlongs, with his sole loss being a very close third to Goldikova and Paco Boy in a red hot renewal of the Prix de la Foret. He's lost all six times he's been returned to the races more quickly since his juvenile days, producing quite a few clunkers in these losses.

With only three weeks to go till the QEII, I suspect we won't be seeing Dick Turpin line up at Ascot. But the runner up CITYSCAPE (42) surely will and looks a much better proposition for the race.

Cityscape looked sure to win when kicking two lengths clear of the German filly Vanjura after she'd come up to challenge him inside the final furlong. But he just got caught on the line by the sustained sprint finish of Dick Turpin.

Cityscape is an admirably consistent horse. But he is a big, gross sort that seems best with a recent run. Some cut in the ground is preferable too. And a small field suits him ideally as he is a bit hard to manouver.

These three requirements look more likely than not to be met in the QEII. So I have to rate Cityscape as the one most likely to make a race of it with Frankel. And if it came up soft he'd have a real chance of pulling off an upset win. The 25-1 you can get about him from the bookies for the Ascot race looks an each way steal.

Third placed VANJURA (40) looked a serious threat approaching the final furlong but couldn't quite go with the first two. She didn't seem to like the straight course when running well below her best behind Godlikova at Deauville. So I'm inclined to think the half mile homestraight for the main course at San Siro didn't suit her either. Horses with a smart turn of foot like her tend to be best on tracks where the homestraight is shorter than half a mile. When it's really long their run tends to dissipate.

In this regard it's interesting to note that Vanjura has lost all four times she's run on tracks with homestraights of half a mile plus and won ten of her other fourteen starts, including the last five in these circumstances.

Vanjura is one of the top fillies in Europe and deserves a success at the top level. The race I'd be looking at for her is the Hong Kong Mile where I'd love the chance to bet her at big odds. She'd also be an interesting candidate in the Dubai Duty Free.

FANUNALTER (40) ran into traffic problems as he so often does when delivering his late run. He has the ability to pull off an upset win in a big race - especially when the field is small enough to allow him clear passage and particularly when he's fresh as he was here.

Fifth placed SHALMALGAN (36) seemed to bear out my theory about him needing to be fresh by fading in the last quarter mile after being allowed his own way up front at a modest pace. As I've noted before it appears he now needs to be kept fresh to produce top form. He's won all three times he's run off a break of five weeks or more this season but lost all eight times he's returned to the races more quickly since his two year old days.