POSTED ON JUNE 27TH, 2006

DEEP IMPACT IS NO CERT FOR THE ARC

There is no doubt that DEEP IMPACT (43) is one of the world's best horses. He proved this yet again when winning the Group 1 Takarazuka Kinen over 1m 3f at Kyoto. But I wouldn't be hurrying to take the 7-1 currently being offered by the bookies for the Arc. Deep Impact may well have a big problem in that race if the early pace is slow which it is about half the time.

I've been ploughing through the Japanese form for Deep Impact, making speed ratings for his races, and my conclusion is that he's basically a stayer.

Two runs back Deep Impact ran significantly faster than the world record for two miles when winning over 3200 metres (a few yards short of two miles) at Kyoto. The reason he's been able to win so many Group 1 races over there is that the Japanese Racing Association have a very successful policy of maximising the number of runners in their Group 1 races. Amazingly there are on average more than 16 runners in Japanese Group 1's – more than enough to ensure a searching pace every time – as evidenced by the fast time of all Deep Impact's wins.

Watch the videos of Deep Impact's races and you'll see how he always seems to take ages to get going. And he can get outrun in a finish, as Heart's Cry showed when beating him fair and square in the Arima Kinen on Christmas day.