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POSTED ON OCTOBER 6, 2008 BUSHRANGER UNLIKELY TO WIN AT THREE Tradition is the only real reason the Middle Park Stakes retains its Group 1 status. Only one of the last dozen winners went on to win a race at three. The reason is that these days there is a stigma attached to racing two year olds over six furlongs or less, particularly colts. Wins over such trips, even in Group 1 races, do little to enhance their stud value. As a result the best juvenile colts now focus much more strongly than before on top races over seven furlongs and a mile. The Middle Park is for sprinters only. And three year old sprinters have a tough time beating their elders, hence the poor recent record of Middle Park winners at three. This year's Middle Park winner Bushranger (37) is a good sprinter. He's close-coupled and athletic. And he has a turn of foot as well as serious early pace. But he'd need to make an improbable amount of improvement from two to three to become a factor in the top sprints next year. The third and fourth HUNTDOWN (32) and GALLAGHER (31) look rather better prospects as they were both flat to the boards when the pace picked up with a couple of furlongs to run but then stayed on towards the finish. I can see either of them improving over seven furlongs to take something like the Greenham Stakes next Spring. If there was a future top sprinter in the race I suspect it was FINJAAN (27) who finished stone last after a ludicrously troubled passage. He was always moving really well but was boxed in on the rail with no way out. His jockey made a desperate attempt to force through a non existent gap inside the final furlong but this simply resulted in Finjaan being badly hampered. After the incident all he could do was allow his mount to come home in his own time. Finjaan is a great big, very muscular sprinter that's already won in Group company. I can't say how he would have fared if he'd had a clear run here. But he's so mature I rather suspect he's going to do pretty well against his elders next term.
PURSUIT OF GLORY THE HORSE TO TAKE OUT OF CHEVELEY PARK You'd think that a horse by Mtoto would be a slam dunk to stay a mile. But after watching SERIOUS ATTITUDE (35) win the Cheveley Park Stakes I have to agree with the doubts expressed by her trainer about her staying beyond sprint trips. Previously I'd thought that her physique would carry her a mile. But looking at her again I see that, like most sprinters, she's a close-coupled sort. And she showed serious pace here. It could well be that Serious Attitude will get the mile. But she keeps on hitting the same Group 3 speed rating and will need to improve to be a factor in the Guineas. In this regard it's worth noting that she's only medium sized, and in my experience small and medium sized two year olds don't make the same improvement that bigger ones do from two to three. For me the horse to take out of the race for the future just has to be PURSUIT OF GLORY (33). She's a muscular, good looking filly that's clearly built and bred for a mile, maybe a bit more. She got herself some ways behind early on and had to weave in and out to find a run but picked up best of all when clear to finish third. She was moving really strongly at the finish and will obviously improve for the step up to a mile. I can readily see her improving enough over a mile to be at least competitive in a Guineas or the Coronation Stakes next year. The other horse worth noting is surely the fifth placed HEART SHAPED (29) who also finished strongly. She's a tall, rangy scopey filly with a long stride. Her dam stayed beyond a mile as did her best two previous offspring. In fact one of them was the very smart A P Valentine who ran second in the G1 Belmont Stakes over a mile and a half. I know she managed to win over five furlongs. But two year olds do all sorts of things that they later prove incapable of when older. My feeling is that Heart Shape will improve markedly over a mile and a quarter next year. She also keeps looking rather uncomfortable on a fast surface, so I suspect she'd do better with some cut in the ground too.
EAGLE MOUNTAIN HAS A SHOT IN BC TURF In South Africa and Australia it's quite normal for the top middle distance horses and stayers to win over much shorter trips off a lay-off. A doctor who specialized in muscle disorders once explained to me that the reason was the glycogen supplies which build up in a horse's muscles during periods of inactivity. Glycogen is what the 'fast twitch', type 2A or sprinting muscle fibres use for fuel. And normally middle distance horses and stayers don't have anything like the amount of glycogen that sprinters do. They rely far more on their their type 2B muscle fibres which burn the bodies fat and carbohydrate supplies which require oxygen to liberate. When human athletes switch over to these muscles they call it 'the wall' as they have to expend far more effort when doing so. I give this preamble to explain why South African trainer Mike de Kock was able to bring Derby runner up EAGLE MOUNTAIN (39) back off a 12 month break to win a good Group 3 over a mile at Newmarket. Eagle Mountain had to be switched for a run and looked set to be overtaken by the powerful finish of the giant BANKABLE (39) down the outside. But he responded really well to just hold his rival in a finish where the pair dipped well under 36 seconds for the final three furlongs. Clearly Eagle Mountain has recovered from his fractured pelvis. Equally clearly he has the acceleration required to win turf races in America. So it's a shrewd move to target the Breeders' Cup Turf at Santa Anita. He looks to have a real shot in that race. Bankable showed a tremendous turn of foot for such a big horse and was unlucky to come up against another Group 1 rival after finishing second to Raven's Pass at Goodwood. In between he was asked to come from too far off a slow pace when running second once more. Clearly Bankable needs to go back up to a mile and a quarter. He's a tremendously good looking horse that keeps on running like a potential Group 1 winner. Indeed he's earned speed ratings as high as 41 from me. I hope he goes for the Champion Stakes as I'd give him a major chance there.
SWINGING SIXTIES A GOOD PROSPECT Tailwind or not, it takes a good horse to come within a fifth of a second of the ten furlong course record at Newmarket. That's what SWINGING SIXTIES (37) achieved when taking a red hot three year old handicap at the course last week. Runner up Midships (35) set a strong early pace. His jockey tried to slow it up slightly with half a mile to run. But this move simply saw Swinging Sixties surge up towards him, clearly moving better. So Midships rider kicked on again. However he could not shake off his challenger, and in the last 150 yards Swinging Sixties surged away in the manner of a high class horse. Swinging Sixties clocked a Listed class time here and will surely be winning in pattern company next year. He looks a bit immature to me at this stage. And I have to say I'm not fond of his stride pattern. His legs go out to the side when he's at full gallop, though this doesn't seem to slow him down any. Swinging Sixites has now won all three times he's run ten furlongs on ground where the word 'firm' has appeared in the official going description. He looks a fascinating prospect.
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