POSTED ON JANUARY 2, 2012

BINOCULAR UP AGAINST IT IN BID FOR SECOND CHAMPION HURDLE

There was absolutely nothing wrong with the success of BINOCULAR (42) in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. He jumped well and outkicked a top class rival to win narrowly in fast time.

However it has to be said that it's now been almost two years since Binocular's brilliant win in the 2010 Champion Hurdle and, for one reason or another, he has not quite been able to match the level of form he showed that day in his subsequent outings - whatever set of speed or handicap ratings you use. Indeed his official handicap rating has fallen eight pounds since his big win.

It could be that trainer Nicky Henderson will manage to get Binocular back to the same form he showed in the Spring of 2010. You can certainly argue that he's being trained to peak for the Champion Hurdle and that this was a big step in the right direction.

My concern is that the stats for the big Cheltenham race suggest we should be wary of horses like Binocular.

In the last 23 runnings of the Champion Hurdle 13 horses have tried to repeat a previous win in the race in non-consecutive years. None of the 13 reached the first three and only one ran better than eighth.

If the same proportion of Champion Hurdlers have attempted the feat in the entire history of the race then 45 bids to win again in non-consecutive years have been made for just a single success. This was by Comedy Of Errors in the 1975 Champion Hurdle.

Comedy Of Errors had run second in the 1974 Champion Hurdle. Binocular was forced to miss last year's event due to that strange episode with drugs used to clear up an infection still being in his system at the time.

You have to wonder just how well Binocular would have done in last year's Champion Hurdle if he'd lined up in light of his thirteen and nine length losses in his subsequent two starts at Aintree and Punchestown. Those poor efforts undermine any confidence supporters of the horse might feel as he warms up for his attempt on hurdling's biggest prize in 2012.

Watching the race it was hard not to feel that neck runner up ROCK ON RUBY (42) might well have got back up to beat Binocular if there had been an uphill finish as there will be at Cheltenham.

Rock On Ruby's physique and pedigree suggest he is more about strength and stamina than Binocular whose turn of foot and tactical speed gave him a serious edge in a small field on fast ground around a tight track.

Despite this Rock On Ruby has a fine record at the minimum hurdles distance. If the photo had gone his way here he would now have won all six times he's run 2 miles since his losing racecourse debut. I see him as one of the top candidates for the Champion Hurdle.

FINGAL BAY CAN RUN FASTER

FINGAL BAY (38) kept his unbeaten record when winning the Grade 1 Challow Novices Hurdle at Newbury. But he idled rather badly after looking set to score by around six lengths, finally having just one length to spare at the line.

This run will surely give jockeys on future rivals of Fingal Bay ideas. They'll realise that the way to beat him is to let him kick clear then come with s sharp late burst while he's idling. No doubt we'll see this attempted sooner rather than later.

There's no question that Fingal Bay can run faster than this. But the runner up BALLYROCK (38) is still a very decent staying novice hurdler that has already won a point to point.

BOBS WORTH THE ONE TO BEAT IN RSA CHASE

One of the most interesting stats in jump racing is that all seventeen winners of the Feltham Novices Chase that have gone on to run in the RSA Chase have lost while five Feltham losers have won the big Cheltenham race.

You can get some sense of why this is so from watching the video of the latest renewal of the Feltham run over Christmas.

The winner GRANDS CRUS (42) has to rate as one of the best two winners in the history of the Feltham along with last year's victor Long Run. But it was obvious that it was his pace gave him the edge over the second and third at Kempton. Around the more testing Cheltenham it's easy to see how they could reverse placings with him as they were both staying on so well.

Grands Crus was able to make up ground quickly to take the lead seven fences out after settling behind the searching early pace. He kicked five lengths clear entering the straight and had enough in reserve to be eased up late to score by over two lengths.

I'm prepared to say Grands Crus had trouble adapting to fixed brush hurdles when he made that abortive trip to France in the Summer. He would have won the other nine times he's run beyond two and a half miles but for twice bumping into Big Buck's and finishing second.

I have a nagging feeling that Grands Crus is a bit light framed to like jumping fences in a big field. Maybe this is why he lost that race in France where he faced nine rivals over fixed brush hurdles (which are basically baby fences). But that is just a suspicion based on insufficient evidence. Right now he's looking like a top class horse that's remarkably versatile.

Runner up SILVINIACO CONTI (41) was clearly very well suited by the strong pace and the step up to two miles. This deep chested sort moved out of the pack travelling ominously well to look a serious threat to the winner with six to jump. However Grands Crus had the pace to open up a gap on him before Silviniaco Conti's stamina enabled him to start clawing back the deficit in the closing sages.

Horses as young as Silviniaco Conti don't have a great record in the RSA Chase. So it was understandable that trainer Paul Nicholls suggested he might well skip the Cheltenham Festival this season. With Denman retired, Master Minded's career in doubt and Kauto Star in the twilight of his career, Nicholls has to make sure he looks after what is an obvious future Gold Cup candidate.

Third placed BOBS WORTH (40) showed once more his remarkable ability to rally repeatedly in a race. For a long way it looked like the first two had got away from him but he picked up like he always does, staying on strongly to close in on them and run third by five and a quarter lengths.

Bobs Worth has won all three times he's run at Cheltenham, including at the Festival. It's hard to believe he won't turn this form around with the winner given the more testing nature of that course and the fact it turns left handed (which suits him better according to trainer Nicky Henderson). Add in the stats that I've mentioned and it's surprising the bookies pushed him out to as big as 12-1 for the RSA Chase. He looks very much the one to beat in that contest as I see it.

MR MOONSHINE (22) and TEAFORTHREE engaged in an entertaining early duel for the lead. They surged twenty lengths clear of the rest while running the first six furlongs up to the sixth fence and almost unbelievable 3.1 seconds faster than they went in the King George.

Both horses understandably weakened rapidly in the closing stages. But the fact they were able to jump so boldly at such speed while leading a red hot field by a huge margin tells me they're smart.

Like a lot of chasers that have a habit of going off fast, Mr Moonshine seems best fresh. That is on his first two starts of the season or with a break of at least five weeks thereafter. He's won all four times he's run on galloping tracks in these circumstances.

Teaforthree is a tall, old fashioned staying chasing sort. Back on a more galloping track, preferably on softer ground, he's capable of winning something decent.

KAUTO STAR DOES IT AGAIN

As a punter I'm not too fond of the genuine champion that comes along every ten or fifteen years. They win in all sorts of circumstances and defy seemingly unbreakable statistics. Worse still, they build up a fan base that ensures they almost always start at short odds.

This being so I'm not sure I have anything useful to say following the fifth King George win scored by the remarkable KAUTO STAR (43). The old boy may not be quite the force he once was, but he's still awfully tough to pass, as he showed at Kempton. I'm not going to be the one to say he can't win another Gold Cup.

They took half a second longer to get from the first fence to the finish in the King George than they did in a red hot renewal of the Feltham. But Kauto Star really stepped on the gas from seven out and got home from there 1.4 seconds faster than the novices. When I adjust my rating to reflect this it suggests he put up a slightly better performance than Grands Crus.

I was a little bit worried to see how runner up LONG RUN (43) got outpaced twice by Kauto Star - once when the winner kicked on seven out and again early in the straight. At that point Long Run seemed to have a real fight on his hands to retain second place. But his stamina kicked in and he picked up strongly to cut the gap to just a length and a quarter at the line.

As with Kauto Star, I don't think I have much useful to say about Long Run. He improved markedly from his first run and might well be able to win a second Gold Cup.

The interesting performance for me was put up by fourth placed SOMERSBY (37).

As he has so often before, Somersby got rather worked up and washy with sweat before the race and pulled hard in the early stages. However he settled by about halfway and was actually going better than anything approaching five out. However he hit that fence and three others rather jarringly which cost him valuable energy.

Once the first two had gotten away early in the straight Somersby’s jockey seemed happy to take it easy and settle for fourth place , only riding him along again when it became apparent he might be able to snatch third from the tiring Captain Chris.

My feeling from watching this performance by Somersby is that he might well benefit from having softer ground to slow things down. It could be that a longer distance would have the same effect.

Right now it's hard not to notice that Somersby has won all three times he's run over fences in fields of five runners or less but lost the ten times he's tackled more runners. However I'm not sure that tells the whole story. He tends to jump big and well and has never fallen. It might turn out that he'll do best over the stiff jumps at Aintree or in Ireland.

Somersby is a very smart horse that is clearly capable of winning a Grade 1. Indeed he's reached the first three five of the seven times he's run at the top level. It could well be he's best fresher than he was here. I reckon he has a real shot of taking a Grade 1 chase now that he's running over three miles. The 33-1 and 40-1 you can get about him ante-post for the Gold Cup does appeal to me each way.

SPRINTER SACRE IS BRILLIANT

SPRINTER SACRE (43) put up one of the best performances we've seen from a novice chaser in years when winning the Wayward Lad Novices Chase at Kempton. He set s scorching pace and just kept on running.

Sectional times show just how good this performance was. Sprinter Sacre got to the last on the far side (four out) 4.7 seconds before Finians Rainbow did in the Desert Orchid Chase on the same card and extended his advantage to six seconds by the finish.

As with almost all top class two mile chasers Sprinter Sacre is probably best fresh. So I'd like to see a gap of at least five weeks between his remaining starts this term now that he's had a couple of outings.

I can readily understand why the bookies cut Sprinter Sacre to 5-2 for the Arkle. That race is surely his.

In the long run it will be very interesting to see if Sprinter Sacre can stretch his stamina to three miles. That might sound like a silly idea right now seeing that he got beat the only time he tried longer than two miles. But he actually ran a very decent second that day and is built and bred to stay at least two and a half miles.

Sprinter Sacre's two winning siblings have won cross country chases over 2m 5f and 3m respectively and his sire has produced Rubi Ball who won the Prix la Haye Jousselin (the French King George) over 3m 3.5 furlongs.

What gives me confidence that Sprinter Sacre will get longer is the way he sustained such a strong gallop all the way to the line. This being so I wouldn't assume the Champion Chase will be his big target next season if he takes the Arkle this term. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him aimed at the King George.

I suggested after his last start that runner up PEDDLERS CROSS (35) might well regress if he was brought back to the races within five weeks. However it's hard to argue that lack of freshness was the main reason for his wide margin loss here. The winner had him at full stretch right from the start and beat him for pace. This being so it wasn't surprising to hear that he will now be going up in distance.

TETLAMI ONE OF THE TOP NOVICES

The novice hurdle on Kempton's King George card often attracts some of the better novice hurdlers and deserves Graded status. That was certainly the case this year as the winner clocked a time just 0.9 of a second slower from the first to the finish than two of the top hurdlers managed in a strongly run Christmas Hurdle.

The winner was TETLAMI (40) who got the better of a sustained duel with the runner up in a race where they pulled twenty lengths clear of the rest.

You could argue that Tetlami will not recover from this tough race in time to be at his best for the Tolworth Hurdle. But novices don't often regress off a big run and there's no strong pattern in his form to suggest this. Besides he's a strong, good-bodied sort that should be able to take a bit of racing.

I would have thought that Tetlami deserved to be favourite for the Supreme Novices after this smart run, so the 16-1 and 20-1 the bookies are offering looks very tempting.

I know Tetlami missed a season after fracturing a pelvis and that he required an operation to fix a breathing problem. But many of the top jumper have had similar issues and he's had plenty of time to get over them. I certainly wouldn't want to be opposing him at Sandown.

Runner up VULCANITE (38) ran a tremendous race for a hurdling debutante, only giving best in the closing stages after fighting the winner long and hard. He was smart on the flat and is clearly just as good over hurdles.

THE MINACK IS VERY SMART

THE MINACK (40) clocked a good Grade 2 time when winning a Listed handicap chase over three miles at Ascot. Despite the strong gallop he still had his ears pricked in the closing stages, so I suspect he might be able to run even faster.

With the Irish Grand National winner Ebony Jane as his dam, it's not surprising that The Minack is a strong, staying sort that's being considered for the Grand National. But I'm getting interested in his prospects of winning a good conditions chase if the ground was soft enough and the pace strong enough to make it a serious test of stamina.

It's hard not to notice that since losing a point to point first time out The Minack has won all eight times he's run below Graded class but lost all four times he's tackled Graded events. However I don't believe this is due to any lack of ability. He has plenty of that judged by his latest performance. Most likely there is some other factor at work which has held him back.

It could be that The Minack is best on right handed courses. I say this because it looks significant that eight of his twelve starts have been on right handed tracks despite the fact he's racing in a country where only a third of the jumps courses turn that way.

The Minack has won seven of the eight times he's run on right handed tracks since his losing debut but scored just once in four tries on left handed courses. This was in a minor three runner novice chase where one of his rivals effectively put himself out of the race a long way from home.

Persuasive as this is, I like to see some evidence that a horse jumps to the right or is at least kept to the right side of the fences before deciding it prefers right handed courses. I see nothing of the sort with The Minack. So for now I'm going to go with the idea that he needs genuinely yielding or softer ground seeing that his two worst runs by far coincided with the only occasions he encountered good or faster ground.

Runner up VINO GRIEGO (38) kicked clear a long way from home and looked hard to catch when still four lengths clear and going strongly turning in. He eventually ran out of gas but still put up a smart performance.

Vino Griego has won both times he's run with cut in the ground below pattern class on right handed tracks and run big races in defeat in three Listed and Graded events in such circumstances. Now that he's proven he stays three miles the obvious target for him is the Racing Post Chase where his connections could exploit his very lenient official rating.

BIG BUCK'S PUTS UP BEST EVER PERFORMANCE

Up till last week's Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot those of us who rate horses on time were fuzzy about just how good BIG BUCK'S (42) actually is. He's been such a dominant force in staying hurdles that he's tended to have his races won some way out. Couple this with his habit of idling when in front and it's understandable that he'd failed to clock a time that reflected his true level of ability.

This all changed in the Long Walk Hurdle thanks to Dynaste who set a strong pace, kicked clear approaching the straight and forced Big Buck's to work hard to catch him.

The staying hurdles division has always been a weak one, with one horse frequently being much superior to their contemporaries. But the time Big Buck's clocked here suggests he's a bona fide Grade 1 horse.

If he were mine I'd be inclined to skip the Cleeve Hurdle with Big Buck's, and for two reasons. Firstly this was the hardest race he's ever and it may take a while for him to recover. Secondly Dynaste and especially Restless Harry could be much bigger threats in the Cleeve Hurdle if they're ridden with a little more restraint. One or both could give Big Buck's another hard race in a row worryingly close to the Cheltenham Festival.

My ratings suggest that FIVE DREAM (39) basically inherited second place because Dynaste went off so hard and kicked clear a long way out in an attempt to beat Big Buck's. In addition third placed Restless Harry probably did his chances no good by chasing Dynaste who was doing just a bit too much up front.

That said, Five Dream is clearly a decent staying hurdler in his own right. If stablemate Big Buck's skips the Cleeve Hurdle I wouldn't dismiss his chances of taking it.

Third placed RESTLESS HARRY (39) may well be as good as Big Buck's according to my ratings. And I suspect he would have been runner up here but for chasing the strong pace. He's clearly nothing like as good over fences and seems to dislike big fields over hurdles. However he's capable of giving Big Buck's a real race on my ratings if not made to go so fast early. So if a single figure field turns out for the Cleeve Hurdle I'll be very interested in his chances.

Fourth placed DYNASTE (36) has now tired badly late both times he's encountered a strong early pace on a track with an uphill finish. So there remains a question mark over his ability to get home in these circumstances.

Even so Dynaste ran a tremendous race here. He set a strong pace and had Big Buck's at full stretch for quite some way when he kicked for home three out.

At this point I can't say for sure whether Dynaste can show his very best on stiff tracks or when returned to the races in less than five weeks following his first two runs of the season. I don't even know whether he can produce the form he showed over normal hurdles that he produced over the fixed brush hurdles at Haydock. In addition I have a slight concern that he may not be at his best on good ground as he does show a bit of knee action.

However Dynaste has to command real respect for the way he had Big Buck's stretched for so long. So I'm inclined to take a positive view when it comes to all his potential shortcomings.

PENNY MAX CAN WIN SOMETHING BIG

PENNY MAX (39) put up a remarkable performance when winning a three mile novice chase at Newbury. He not only clocked a faster time than the top class Time For Rupert managed over the same trip he also ran the final two and a quarter miles 5.4 seconds faster than Back Bob Back did in the 2m 2.5f chase.

However I play around with the sectional times I end up producing a speed rating that indicates Penny Max is bang there with the top novice chasers. He jumped well and maintained a strong pace so well that his rivals ended up separated by big margins at the finish.

I concede that Penny Max was probably fully extended and is unlikely to run much faster than this. So it could be he'll only end up Grade 2 or 3 class. But he clearly stays really well and improved massively for the step up to three miles.

Penny Max is so lightly raced and so young that it's hard to know what circumstances favour him most. It could be he needs soft ground or a marathon distance to produce this form. Or it may be he can do so on any ground as long as the distance is far enough. I can certainly see him staying further.

TIME FOR RUPERT SHOULD WIN A GRADE 1 THIS SEASON

TIME FOR RUPERT (38) didn't need to come out of second gear to make all the running and win a Graduation chase comfortably at Newbury. He wound up the pace from a mile out after going a smidge below proper racing pace till then. From the Cross fence (five out) he got to the finish in 1m 26.0 seconds compared with the 1m 29.6 taken by Penny Max in the strongly run novice chase earlier on the card. When I adjust my rating to take account of this it suggests he put up a Grade 3 class performance despite visibly having plenty to spare.

On two occasions, once in the RSA Chase and again in the Betfair Chase, Time For Rupert has been flat to the boards throughout when asked to go a searching pace from the start on fast ground. He's won six of the other nine times he's gone beyond two and a half miles and run close seconds the other three times to horses that put up seriously good Grade 1 class performances.

No doubt Time For Rupert is going to get stretched and made to look bad again in very strongly run races on fast ground. But, as I see it, it's only a matter of time before he wins a Grade 1. On genuinely yielding or softer ground, and even on good ground if they don't got too fast early, he can run with anything.

It is tempting to say that runner up THE GIANT BOLSTER (37) dislikes big fields as he's blanked all twelve times he's run in races with ten or more runners but would have won all three of his completed starts in smaller fields before this good run if one half length loss had been a win.

There's certainly good evidence to support this view since he's been hampered and failed to complete several times in big fields and was reluctant to line up in the 18 runner Hennessy Gold Cup. However he has shown almost exactly the same level of performance every time he's completed the course beyond two and a half miles on a galloping track, regardless of field size. So I'm reluctant to make the obvious assumption just yet.

It does seem pretty clear though that The Giant Bolster is best around galloping courses as he's never shown his best form in seven tries around tight tracks.

MONTBAZON A SERIOUS CHELTENHAM PROSPECT

I was very impressed with the way MONTBAZON (38) performed when running a close second in fast time to potential Grade 1 winner Colour Squadron on his hurdling debut. He looked a big threat when challenging from two out and pulled nineteen lengths clear of the other nine runners in his attempt to get by Colour Squadron.

Montbazon is a good-bodied, proper national hunt sort that looks built for chasing and longer than the two miles of this contest. His pedigree points the same way too.

Montbazon's dam has only had one previous foal to race and that one appeared just once. However there are plenty of indications that she's an influence for longer distances and chasing. She won a two mile flat race on her only lifetime start and is a full sister to pattern class chaser First De Periji who stayed three miles. She is also a half sister to Saute Au Bois who won a three mile G3 chase in France.

I can readily see Montbazon developing into a serious candidate for the Neptune this season. Next season, when he'll surely be switched to fences, I'd bet on him becoming one of the best novice chasers over two and a half miles plus.

The winner COLOUR SQUADRON (38) made all the running and kept on really well when the runner up tried to get by him. The sectional times show this. He clocked only a tenth of a second faster time from the first hurdle to the third last than Broadbackbob managed in the other novice hurdle but came home from there 5.3 seconds faster.

Colour Squadron's sire Old Vic has produced the winners of fourteen Grade 1 chases but has blanked with all his Grade 1 runners over hurdles so far. Colour Squadron must have a decent shot of putting that right when the contests the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle next time out.

ZAYNAR IS SMART BUT VULNERABLE

Previously I've been unsure about whether ZAYNAR (37) could show his best over fences because he's rather small and light framed for the bigger jumps. At Ascot he showed that he could at least come close to his best hurdles form by winning a Grade 2 novice chase in decent time.

Zaynar set a searching pace and jumped boldly except for the fifth. This is the downhill fence on the side of the course just past the stands. He didn't like the look of this and took it safe and slow, losing about a length and a half and the lead briefly. From there he jumped fast and well, putting his rivals under ever more pressure till striding away up the straight.

The fast pace Zaynar set only told when he had the race in safe keeping. He reached three out seven seconds before the winner of the other novice chase and came home from there 2.6 seconds slower.

I still have doubts about Zaynar over fences. My suspicion is that he helped himself greatly by setting a strong pace. This ensured he avoided the problem he'd encountered in typically slow run novice chases on his previous starts where an accelerating pace meant he was being asked to jump at a speed he found uncomfortable. The soft ground also helped slow things down - as did the small field which ensured he wasn't too crowded at the jumps.

I wouldn't like to bet on Zaynar winning in anything but a single figure field over fences. I'd also be wary of betting him on fast ground or at Cheltenham where the downhill fence might catch him out. The stiffer fences at Kempton, Doncaster, Ayr and especially Aintree would also be a cause for concern as would any trip to Ireland where the fences are even stiffer.

If he were mine I'd be inclined to switch Zaynar to handicap company against experienced chasers to ensure he always gets the strong pace which I suspect is going to prove important to him over fences.

All these provisos make Zaynar very interesting as a betting proposition. He looks sure to hit unfavourable circumstances more often than not, which should build his odds for races where he meets more suitable conditions.

OUR FATHER WOULD HAVE A BIG CHANCE IN LANZAROTE

OUR FATHER (39) clearly appreciated the strong pace and the step up to 2m 6f when taking a hot handicap hurdle at Ascot in very fast time.

Always moving well, Our Father looked to have a tough task on his hands as he set out after the wide margin leader Shoreacres entering the straight as his rival was clearly not stopping. But he steadily closed the gap, went level just before the last and then went clear when ridden out.

This was a tremendous performance by Our Father, especially when you consider he was giving weight to all but one of his much more experienced rivals.

I'm not sure that Our Father is suited by the slow early pace that so often occurs in novice hurdles. So I'd like to see him stepped up to three miles if he goes back into novice company - unless the ground is soft.

As I see it, it makes more sense to keep Our Father to handicap company. He could win the Lanzarote at Kempton easily on this form. He could then be found another handicap as a prep for the Martin Pipe conditional jockeys hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival or better still the Pertemps Final. I'd feel less confident of his chances if he went the obvious route in novice company of the Challow Hurdle then the Albert Bartlett Memorial.

Runner up SHOREACRES (38) kicked on a long way out and powered more than a dozen lengths clear of the rest in his efforts to hold the winner at bay.

The switch back to hurdles was obviously a smart move for Shoreacres. He showed smart form in Bumpers and novice hurdles, running fourth in the Cheltenham Festival Bumper and leading till before the last in the Supreme Novices.

There are indications in the form of Shoreacres that he's best when fresh and on right handed courses. But now that he's running longer distances and back over hurdles I'm wary of assuming that previous patterns in his form will apply.

All I can say right now is that Shoreacres is about two stone lower in the weights than he should be over hurdles judged by the time he clocked here. His connections will surely be able to find a handicap hurdle where they can exploit this soon.

PROSPECT WELLS NEEDS A GREATER TEST OF STAMINA

PROSPECT WELLS (36) started favourite for the valuable Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot and ran really well to finish a very close fourth. He visibly had trouble coping with the near sprint finish which followed a moderate early pace. But he was beginning to pick up really strongly in the final 75 yards or so as those in front of him finally began to tire.

Trainer Paul Nicholls said after Prospect Wells previous run that "he’ll be better in a competitive field where they go flat out." That is clearly spot on.

It would be interesting to see how Prospect Wells would do if stepped up to two and a half miles. But he's been trained with the Supreme Novices in mind for so long it would probably be a bad idea to try that experiment right now. He's clearly one of the top novice hurdlers over two miles and has a realistic chance of success in the big Cheltenham race.

MOLOTOF WORTH OPPOSING NEXT TIME

The weakness of the Grade 2 Kennel Gate Hurdle won by Molotof at Ascot can be seen from the sectional times. Despite going only 1.5 seconds faster from the first jump to four out than they did in the staying handicap hurdle they took 5.5 seconds more to get home from there than in the 6f longer race. They went a whopping 10.1 seconds slower from four out than they did in the Listed Bumper (where they went slow to that point).

This being so I have to rate MOLOTOFF (36) a sub par winner for the class even when I take account of the somewhat slow early pace in the longer contest. I'll be opposing him with some confidence next time - especially if he returns to the races in less than five weeks. He finished really tired here, taking 5.6 seconds longer over the last quarter mile than they did in the Bumper. It will surely take him a while to recover from this.

SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR IS USEFUL

SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR (36) won a good Listed Bumper with a bit in hand at Ascot. He won going away in a race that did not look to be run to suit him. He looks like a two and a half mile plus sort. So I think it was only the soft ground that enabled him to get there in a race where they came home 10.1 seconds faster over the last 5.5 furlongs from four out than they did in the Grade 2 novice hurdle.

I imagine Shutthefrontdoor will now be going over hurdles as two miles on faster ground might well not suit him.

OSCAR WHISKY THE TOP HURDLER

I suggested after his last start that trainer Nicky Henderson's statement from last season about OSCAR WHISKY (43) perhaps proving better over two miles when he'd strengthened up and matured might well prove to be true this season.

Last Saturday Oscar Whisky went a long way towards confirming this idea when taking the Relkeel Hurdle at Cheltenham.

The official distance of the race was half a furlong longer than two and a half miles. But a moderate early pace and a sprint finish made it ride much more like a two mile contest.

The most remarkable aspect of Oscar Whisky's performance was the speed he showed over the last half mile or so from the second last. He ran this final part of the race 3.8 seconds faster than stablemate Grandouet managed over a shorter trip in the preceding International Hurdle.

Despite the slow early pace, the time that Oscar Whisky made up in the last half mile meant they clocked just 4.6 seconds slower for the final two miles of his race than in Grandouet's contest. When I invoke my normally reliable sectional timing formula this suggests that Oscar Whisky would have buried his stablemate if he'd faced him in the International Hurdle.

I now rate Oscar Whisky the best hurdler in training following this run. The 20-1 that some bookies are offering about him for the Champion Hurdle looks barking mad to me. Given the pace he showed here there's surely no way Oscar Whisky's connections are going to consider taking on Big Buck's in the World Hurdle. The Champion Hurdle just has to be his target, and I reckon he has a big chance of winning it this time around.

Runner up GET ME OUT OF HERE (42) is a smart hurdler in his own right and looked set to make a fight of it briefly before the winner just kept powering away and he himself began to hang. He still pulled well clear of the rest in his efforts to go with Oscar Whisky and remains capable of taking a Grade 1.

The problem with Get Me Out Of Here is clearly his breathing. Despite having a soft palate operation he choked on the run in when losing the County Hurdle in a photo last season.

If I was going to risk money on Get Me Out Of Here it would be on fast ground over two miles, preferably following a break. In other circumstances he's always going to be at high risk of having breathing problems. Most likely he was having them here and that's why he hung.

GRANDOUET NO CHAMPION HURDLER

I recognise that most people see the race very differently, but for me GRANDOUET (39) receded to a distant blip on my Champion Hurdle radar following his win in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham. Despite a strong early gallop and being driven out all the way to the line he failed to clock a time that would give him a serious chance of winning the big race.

Previously I'd made the heinous error of rating Grandouet on what he might have done had he stood up when falling in the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton. Now I'm going to treat the speculative rating of 41 I gave him there as an error and rate him on this performance which tags him as a Grade 2 performer.

Even if he'd run a whole lot faster and won more impressively I would not be interested in Grandouet as a Champion Hurdle prospect. He's just too darned narrow, light-framed and immature for me to believe he can fight his way through the big field that always lines up for Britain's top hurdle race. Bigger rivals are surely going to get in his way and force him to lose ground because he lacks the bulk needed to force his way though gaps between them.

Indeed, even in this eight runner contest jockey Barry Geraghty reported that this very thing happened. He said "I got trapped wider than I'd ideally want and had to switch in."

Grandouet is tough to beat in small fields. But for falling at Wincanton and getting brought down when going well in a Grade 1 at Aintree he would probably have won all eight times he's run in single figure fields. However he's yet to win in a race with ten or more runners in five tries.

I hardly think the Champion Hurdle will be the race where Grandouet finally manages to beat a big field. The stats say it's very difficult for a horse as young as Grandouet to be competitive in that race. Since See You Then won the Champion Hurdle back in 1985 only one horse as young as Grandouet has taken the big race even though 77 have tried. This was Katchit in 2008.

Katchit had massively more experience than most five year old hurdlers. He'd started racing at two and had racked up 28 lifetime starts before winning the Champion Hurdle. Katchit had run in a dozen hurdle races before taking the Champion Hurdle too, just one less than the record for a five year old in the last sixteen years. Grandouet will have only had fourteen runs when he lines up for the Champion Hurdle.

This was a tough race for Grandouet, so I was looking forward to betting against him if he'd turned out again for the Christmas Hurdle on the grounds that he wouldn't recover in time. But trainer Nicky Henderson is too smart for that. He told reporters right after the race "we'll give him a bit of time off now, bring him back and give him one run before the Champion."

Runner up OVERTURN (37) is easy to understand. He's an admirably keen front runner that needs fast ground. However, as we saw in last year's Champion Hurdle, he's not ideally suited to the prolonged uphill finish at Cheltenham.

I imagine Overturn will now be rested till the Spring to avoid unsuitably soft Winter ground. When he comes back he'll be a very interesting contender for the Aintree Hurdle if the going is fast enough.

Third placed BRAMPOUR (37) didn't show quite the same level of form as he had winning the Greatwood Hurdle on his previous start. Trainer Paul Nicholls was reluctant to blame an interrupted preparation caused by puss in a foot. And I found it interesting that he said after the race than he now planned on giving the horse a break.

A lot of horses, especially jumpers are best on their first two starts of the season and then need breaks of five or six weeks between their runs. Since losing on his hurdling debut (as most horses do) Brampour has won three out of three when he's been fresh but lost all three times he hasn't had a break of six weeks plus following his first two starts of the season.

Brampour, like the winner, is only four, so this season he'll almost certainly be too young to have a decent shot in the Champion Hurdle. But next year I can see him being a threat to the top hurdlers.

Fourth placed MENORAH (33) went well for a long way before looking to blow up through lack of fitness in the closing stages - something confirmed later by his trainer. I'm still a little dubious whether he has the size or scope to produce his best over fences. But I've seen far too many below average size chasers excel in novice events to adopt that position with much confidence. And I have to say I like the way trainer Philip Hobbs seems to be gearing his entire campaign around a bid for the Arkle. That's the way you win the really big races.

The fifth horse home SANCTUAIRE (31) travelled really well all the way to the second last. He's a good looking, classy sort but has two obvious problems. One is that the pulls too hard for his own good when seeing too much daylight in small fields like this (he's lost all four times he's run in fields of eight or less). The other is that he had a breathing operation in January and may now have trouble getting home on tracks with steep uphill finishes or quite possibly on soft ground.

Right now I'm actually inclined to think that Sanctuaire can handle stiff tracks and simply needs fields of nine or less and good ground to produce his best. That does make him rather hard to place though. The only races where he's going to encounter big enough fields regularly are handicaps where he'll be lumbered with huge weights. So far the only handicap he's won in five tries was the Scottish Champion Hurdle where he had nearly a stone less on his back than in his four handicap losses.

That said, Sanctuaire clearly has a lot of talent. If he can be found a conditions race with nine or more runners on fast ground I'll be interested in his chances.

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