TIDAL BAY LOOKS A GOOD THING FOR WORLD HURDLE

A few times a season the clock tells you something that's unexpected, unequivocal and almost unbelievable. This was the case with TIDAL BAY (42) in the Cleeve Hurdle. The time he clocked was just mind boggling. I've got to award him a rating of 42 on my scale for it. That's the best performance by a three mile hurdler in years - better than anything Big Bucks has done or is likely to be capable of.

I'm not a big fan of standard times in jump racing as they move the rails so much you often end up comparing distances that have been altered radically. So nowadays I base my ratings on sectional times that I adjust for distance. On Saturday the last seven jumps were the same in all three hurdle races. They went a bit slow early in the big two mile handicap hurdle, so the time over the last seven of 3m 31.6 is not a fair reflection of their ability. But Restless Harry went throttle out from the start, so the 3m 30.3 he took over the last seven does represent his ability.

If Tidal Bay had the same level of ability as Restless Harry he would have taken 3m 34.20 seconds over the last seven jumps and up to the finish (when I adjust for the longer distance of his race). He actually got there in 3m 32.0 This makes him five lengths a mile better than Restless Harry (which is what the standard time comparison says too, so it's right in this instance). There's no way I can rate Restless Harry lower than 37 (equal to weak Grade 3). So I must put Tidal Bay on 42. As I've said, that's better than Big Bucks. In fact it's right up there with the very best three mile hurdlers of the last fifteen years. I've not given a three mile hurdler a bigger rating in that period, not even Baracouda or Inglis Drever.

I was really impressed with the way Tidal Bay simply ran away from his rivals from the last, as if he'd just jumped into the race at that point. He won full of running. What's more he's likely to improve for faster ground at the Cheltenham Festival.

Tidal Bay didn't act on the heavy ground when second to Wichita Lineman and has always been best on a quicker surface. If he hadn't been carried right when losing the Ballymore Properties by a neck he would have won all his six starts over timber on what race times indicate was soft or faster going.

Five year olds don't win the World Hurdle. So I think it's significant that since the distance of the Cleeve Hurdle was increased to three miles the only two older horses to win it which went on to run in the World hurdle both scored - Big Bucks and Inglis Drever. I reckon Tidal Bay is going to make it three out of three. I see him as the most likely winner of any race at the Cheltenham Festival. So I'm boggled that he's still 12-1 with the bookies. That's insanely big. As I see it he should be favourite not Big Bucks.

Runner up TIME FOR RUPERT (40) is a muscular, well proportioned, good-bodied, classy looking sort that's clearly built for chasing. But he's also athletic and agile and possesses plenty of pace for a horse with such obvious stamina. He'd won the three previous times he'd run beyond two and a half miles and is clearly one of the top three mile hurdlers. I can't see how he can turn this form around with Tidal Bay at Cheltenham but can easily see him taking second place once more. Next season he's going to be quite some novice chaser and could well be a Gold Cup prospect later on.

Former Champion Hurdler KATCHIT (40) had looked to be in need of a step up in distance for a long time. It's now clear that the jump up to two and a half miles was not quite enough as he bounced right back to his best going three miles for the first time here. Clearly he has a shot in the World Hurdle and should improve on faster ground. But so should Tidal Bay.

MR THRILLER (27) was close up and moving well for a long way but tired from three out. It now seems likely that he doesn't like really stiff tracks like Cheltenham and Sandown as he's run below form all four times he's run at these venues but won his other four UK starts.

TATENEN (14) once more demonstrated how he hates Cheltenham's steep finish by tiring badly up the final climb. He's a smart horse around less testing courses.

RESTLESS HARRY A GOOD CHASING PROSPECT

RESTLESS HARRY (37) set a strong pace and just kept on galloping to grind his rivals into submission in the Grade 2 novice hurdler over two and a half miles at Cheltenham. He's built for three miles and fences and was clearly running a bit faster than he can jump efficiently as he took few of the hurdles cleanly. Therefore the step up to three miles for the Albert Bartlett at the Festival looks a good plan. Most likely he won't be good enough there. But next year over fences he could easily prove to be one of the top novice chasers at three miles.

TARANIS STILL HAS IT

The stats indicate that the chances of a horse winning off a two year lay off following a breakdown this late in the season are slim. Trainer Paul Nicholls seemed to confirm this a few days before the Argento Chase at Cheltenham when saying "I think Taranis will need the run".

However TARANIS (40) had won all seven of his starts since leaving France when he'd had a break of 40 days plus, including a Grade 1. And he'd been back in work since late July.

I've noticed in the past that Nicholls does tend to be a pessimist about his horse's fitness. So it wasn't that big a shock that Taranis came there cruising two out and ended up winning comfortably by six lengths. He's never been in the same league as Kauto Star Or Imperial Commander on my ratings. But he's as good as ever judged on this run and looks capable of winning more big races when fresh.

Runner up CARRUTHERS (38) looked rather a good thing on paper as he'd won five of the six times he'd run in fields of eight or less and was a close second to subsequent Grade 1 winner What A Friend in his sole loss. However he was never left alone up front by Madison Du Berlais and Joe Lively and didn't seem to enjoy being pressured by that pair. Either that or he is not at his best around Cheltenham, where he's yet to win in three tries. In any event he kept on for second after a series of scrappy jumps while running a bit below his best.

Carruthers is clearly still very hard to get by in a small field. But I'm now inclined to think his best chance of further success in top company lies at Aintree rather than Cheltenham.

JOE LIVELY (38) rallied strongly on two separate occasions in the race, showing the stamina that makes him such an interesting candidate for the Grand National. He's clearly been trained exclusively with that race in mind and will have a serious chance if he can only get in with a low enough mark, which means under 11-2 (as no horse has carried that weight or higher to victory at Aintree in 25 years).

MADISON DU BERLAIS (33) went well for a long way but tired up the hill, demonstrating once more that he's best on flatter courses. He did win a 0-115 and a 0-125 chase on undulating tracks early on in his UK career four years back. But since then, in better class races, he's lost all twelve times he's run on anything but a dead flat track and won seven out of fourteen on dead flat courses.

Trainer David Pipe said before the race that "The questions about the track will be answered on Saturday." The questions were answered with a seventh defeat in seven tries at Cheltenham. But no real harm was done. It was only a prep race and at least Madison Du Berlais' connections now know to pull him out of the Gold Cup and steer him towards a repeat success at Aintree in the totesport Bowl.

The novice INCHIDALY ROCK was fancied by some. But the four previous novices to contest the race since 1995 had all failed to complete the course, so it wasn't that surprising he slithered to a slow motion fall at the ninth. Paul Nicholls believes he's going to improve over four miles anyway, and I don't think this will have done his chances in the National Hunt Chase over that trip too much harm.