TENDER FALCON & BALKAN KNIGHT CAN WIN BIG HANDICAPS

The Great Metropolitan handicap at Epsom has produced few faster winners than TENDER FALCON (40). He beat the very smart BALKAN KNIGHT (40) in a time that would win most Group 3 races by my estimates.

Tender Falcon has run pattern class times before, and was winning for the fifth time in his last eleven starts. He's unbeaten at Epsom but I'm not convinced he's a one-track specialist. To be honest, I don't really have an explanation for why he runs well some days and poorly on others. All I can say right now is that he appears to have improved this season and is fast enough to take a really big handicap, the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal York being the one mentioned by his connections as his next target.

BALKAN KNIGHT (40) ran a huge speed rating at York last year but must have had some sort of a setback because he didn't run after July. He's clearly now recovered as he again ran a big number here on his first start for David Elsworth. He too looks very capable of taking one of the top handicaps this term and I imagine Elsworth is thinking in terms of the Duke Of Edinburgh as well. My ratings say Balkan Knight ought to be running in Group company by the end of the season - and winning.

MOMTIC SMART ON FAST GROUND

MOMTIC (40) won a red hot mile handicap on fast ground at Sandown in very fast time. His form clearly indicates that he prefers fast ground, and his speed ratings suggest he's capable of taking a really big handicap sometime this season.

Second-placed ROYAL PRINCE (39) won a Newmarket handicap in Group class time last Autumn and earned the same speed rating from me again here. He too looks capable of taking something big this term.

WEIGHTLESS BOUNCES BACK

WEIGHTLESS (39) ran some terrific races two seasons back and returned to something like his best to make all the running in the Group 3 Gordon Richard Stakes at Sandown. I actually had him running a fair bit quicker back in 2003, so don't be surprised if he improves even on this meritorious effort.

BLUE TRAIN HAS A SHOT IN DANTE

A measure of just how different the Polytrack is to other dirt and AW surfaces is the incredible success achieved on it by Sadler's Wells. Until the Polytrack came along you could safely draw a line through any AW runner sired by Sadler's Wells. But now, purely thanks to the Polytrack, he's racked up loads of winners on the sand. In truth Polytrack is much closer to turf than dirt or AW surfaces in its physical properties, so this is not that surprising. In any event BLUE TRAIN (36) added to Sadler's Wells score on the Polytrack by taking a Wolverhampton maiden in freakishly fast time. This half million guinea yearling is entered in the Dante and the Derby and I wouldn't dismiss his chances just because 'he's only won an AW maiden'.

Runner-up FULLANDBY (35) is probably only a good handicapper. But he will be tough to beat on grass or Polytrack next time.

PRINCE SAMOS IS PATTERN CLASS

PRINCE SAMOS (36) dotted up when going a longer trip for the first time on his seasonal debut and repeated the feat with another clear win at Sandown. He took a hot looking mile handicap in a time that rates as Listed to Group 3 for his age group this early in the season. I can see him winning something very decent within a run or two and proving competitive in much better company later on.

LE VIE DEI COLORI RACKS UP WIN NUMBER THIRTEEN

LE VIE DEI COLORI (40) has an amazing record and improved on it to score in fast time on his seasonal debut at Leicester. The race he took was a hot Listed contest, and it does seem that Le Vie Dei Colori is particularly good at beating up on rivals below Group 1 class. He has in fact now won twelve of the thirteen times he's run below Group 1 class and just once in six tries at the top level.

My ratings say that Le Vie Dei Colori is equally effective at every distance he's so far run - all the way up to ten furlongs. They also say he's only borderline Group 1 class. Nevertheless he looks a serious threat to take the Lockinge stakes at Newbury next time as that is often a weak Group 1.

Runner-up CAPE FEAR (40) returned to his best after blanking in just a handful of starts last year. He should win a Group race sometime this season and looks sure to stay a mile judged by the way he finished here and last time out.

HIGHLAND WARRIOR IS A MUCH IMPROVED SPRINTER

I'm always wary of nominating a British sprinter as a horse worth following because Britain has so many fast sprinters - even in pretty low grade races. This is why they dominate the big France and Ireland (e.g. British horses aged three and up have won exactly half the Irish Listed and Group races over 7f or less they've contested in the last decade - you'd have made a lot just betting them all blindly). Nonetheless I feel compelled to note HIGHLAND WARRIOR (40) as he ran so fast in a mere 0-85 sprint handicap at Ripon. He sluiced home by five lengths on what was his seasonal debut and seems to have improved markedly.

LAKE ANDRE NOT JUST A HANDICAPPER

LAKE ANDRE (38) earned a Group class speed rating for the second time this year when taking a hot seven furlong handicap at Naas. So far he has won all three times he's encountered soft ground at seven furlongs but his trainer, Declan Gillespie, says he doesn't need it soft. That makes him look a very interesting prospect for the big seven furlong handicap at the Galway Festival which is apparently his summer target.

Runner-up OVERSIGHTED (37) does seem to need cut in the ground. And as long as he gets it next time he really ought to score. I note with interested that he's entered up at Navan on May 1st.

KOCK DE LA VESVRE HARD TO BEAT OVER EASY FENCES

Last Summer KOCK DE LA VESVRE (40) fought out a tight finish for a valuable class B handicap chase at Perth. He went under by just three parts of a length, earning a speed rating from me that would win most Grade 3 contests. He had won his three previous starts at Perth. Last week he again showed his liking for Perth by winning a pretty valuable handicap chase there in fast time.

I don't think Kock De La Vesvre is just a Perth specialist. I believe he likes Perth because the fences are easy to jump here and the fields are usually small (it's easier for a horse to jump in an uncrowded field). Kock De La Vesvre has in fact won five of the last six times he's run in fields of ten or less at tracks where 6.8% or fewer horses have fallen over the past decade. He's lost the last fourteen times he's faced jumps that claimed a bigger percentage of fallers or run in a bigger field. So don't expect to see him perform well at the Galway Festival if he makes the trip over. But be careful of betting against him at the smaller UK tracks if he keeps on running through the off season.

Runner-up IT TAKES TIME (40) has had a very odd season. He's won a Grade 1 chase, run fourth in the Grand National and now proven how fast he can run with another big performance here. I confess I hadn't thought much of him before this run but my speed ratings say I need to change my mind.

ROYAL SHAKESPEARE IS A FAST HURDLER ON FAST GROUND

Rooseter Booster (40) finally found himself a race with a decent pace and duly obliged at Sandown. But whether he would have won if ROYAL SHAKESPEARE (40) had stood up looks questionable. Royal Shakespeare was going ominously well when he took a bad fall two out. His run proved that he's as good as ever and that he remains a threat to the very best hurdlers - providing the ground is fast as it was here. I can see him winning one or more of the big Champion Hurdle Trials next season if he gets his ground.

YES SIR, HE'S A SMART HURDLER

YES SIR (41) has yet to score in five hurdle outings on tight tracks, but he stretched his unbeaten run on galloping tracks to four with a win in very fast time at the big Sandown meeting. He seems very versatile as to distance and going. All he needs is a galloping track and he's very hard to beat.

DAY FLIGHT AND FRANK SONATA ARE TOP CLASS

The biggest flat speed figure of the week went to the John Porter Stakes at Newbury. The finish was fought out by DAY FLIGHT (42) and our old pal FRANK SONATA (42). Both earned ratings that put them in the Group 1 bracket.

Day Flight has of course already placed in Group 1 company. He got beat only a length in the Prix du Jockey Club last year. Trainer John Gosden said he got jarred up on the very firm ground in that race, and it remains to be seen whether he can actually reproduce his very best form on that sort of surface. Gosden certainly doesn't seem to think so. Therefore I imagine he is thinking in terms of an Autumn campaign geared towards the Arc rather than a summer campaign focused on the King George. If he were mine I'd be inclined to aim him for the Canadian International at Woodbine in the Autumn as that race is usually run on softer ground. It would certainly offer a rich pay day.

Day Flight is next due to appear in the Ormonde Stakes at Chester. He shouldn't have too much trouble winning there as it's only a Group 3 race.

Frank Sonata was unlucky to come up against such a high class rival. He also had to come around a few horses to make his run, losing valuable ground. .I rated him of the top three year olds in Europe last season despite the fact he failed to score in Group company. He showed that he's made the normal physical progress from three to four here.

Frank Sonata definitely needs cut in the ground, so his connections are planning an overseas campaign with the Irish Leger as his primary objective. That looks logical, and I look forward to getting a price about him winning a Group race soon, as my gut feel is he is still generally under-rated. I may get my chance in the Yorkshire Cup which is Frank Sonata's next target provided the ground isn't too fast.

OVERSTAYED IS A PATTERN CLASS JUVENILE

We've already seen one pattern class juvenile this season in Makabul. Last week we saw another when OVERSTAYED (32) bolted up by a big margin on his debut at Ripon.

Overstayed is probably just an early season five furlong horse, but he's a good one. I can see him winning a Listed race sometime soon.

DON'T TRUST THESE CLASSIC TRIALS

So far this season we've only seen one decent time run in a Classic Trial in Britain and one in Ireland. These were put up by Vista Bella and Hazariya respectively. Otherwise the clock says that the Classic Trials we've seen so far have been slow. And it was no different last week even though we saw what should have been very good Classic Trials at Newbury and Newmarket.

I note that some observers are trying to say the Craven Stakes was a good contest and that the unlucky runner-up Rob Roy is therefore a decent 2000 Guineas candidate. That's not what my speed ratings indicate though. I can't find any way of interpreting the time of the race to suggest it was fast. And if the slow time was due to a slow early pace then they should have come home a whole lot faster than the sectional times show they did.

From what I've seen from race times I would bet that both the 1,000 and 2,000 Guineas are going to go to horses that haven't run so far this season.

THE FAST THREE YEAR OLDS ARE IN HANDICAPS

I confess that I don't really know why the better British three year olds now run so frequently in early season handicaps rather than pattern races. But it is clearly something we're all going to have to get used to. This season the trend seems to have accelerated yet again judged by the remarkable number of fast times clocked in three year old handicaps this past week.

Joint fastest according to my ratings was SECRET HISTORY (37) who blasted home by an amazing 14 lengths on heavy ground at Ripon.

Secret History clearly loves the mud, and her shrewd trainer, Mark Johnston, has her entered up in a whole bunch of handicaps to exploit her old mark while the ground remains favourable. I wouldn't care to oppose her unless the going dries up next time out. After that I can see her scoring in pattern company when the wet weather returns in the Autumn.

NOTA BENE (37) also ran very fast when taking a hot little sprint handicap at Newmarket. He would almost certainly still be unbeaten in four starts to date had he not been a bit backward and run green when losing narrowly on his racecourse debut. If he weren't a sprinter and were lower in the handicap he would have a great chance of extending his winning run. Unfortunately his official mark virtually forces him into pattern company next time, and the dearth of pattern sprints for three year olds means he's going to face the difficult task of tackling Britain's exceptionally strong bunch of older sprinters. Nevertheless he is so fast I still have to recommend following him.

JALAMID (37) was the other joint fastest three year old handicap winner of the week. He won his first start last year but presumably had a breathing problem when losing to Dubawi on his only subsequent outing at two. I say this because he's now had a breathing operation and showed the benefit of it with a runaway win in fast time over a mile at Newbury.

Trainer John Gosden told the Racing Post that Jalamid has been slow to come to hand and would improve for this run. All I can say is that if Jalami improves off this run then he may very well turn out to be a Group 1 performer. I certainly wouldn't want to oppose him in any race below that class next time.

BLAISE HOLLOW (36) achieved his fast time over ten furlongs, and his trainer, Roger Charlton feels that he may well stay longer. This makes Blaise Hollow look a good prospect for big handicaps such as the King George V at Royal York

ZALONGO (36) only just lost to Blaise Hollow and is, I note with interest, entered in the Dante Stakes. He only ran two or three lengths a mile slower than the average Dante winner by my estimates and will surely win soon.

RIVER ROYALE (36) was the other fast three year old handicap winner of the week. He won a hot Newmarket seven furlong affair in a time that suggests he can be competitive in pattern company. Runner-up OLIGARCH (36) looks just as promising and must surely win soon.

DON'T UNDER-RATE KAMAKIRI

I've been banging on about all the good three year old times being clocked in handicaps rather than Classic Trials. But I have top confess that the fastest time of them all was put up in a handicap that most regard as a Classic Trial. This was the Free Handicap won by KAMAKIRI (38).

Kamakiri only won the Free Handicap narrowly. But he beat a smart horse home in

OBE GOLD (38). And his trainer, Richard Hannon, says he will improve considerably for the run.

Kamakiri has now won all his three starts since his losing debut. He looks a live outsider for the 2,000 Guineas to me.

Obe Gold proved that he stays seven furlongs by running second, and this run opens up a lot of opportunities for him, the Jersey Stakes at Royal York being the most obvious one.

STETCHWORTH PRINCE (37) finished strongly to take third following a long lay-off. He looked to improve for the step up to seven furlongs and may well improver again over a mile

DON'T WRITE OFF VALIXIR

Norse Dancer (40) won the Earl Of Sefton Stakes narrowly from Hurricane Alan (40) in the sort of time you'd expect of a horse of his ability. He and the runner up are too exposed to be worth following. But third placed VALIXIR (39) looks a sure-fire future big race winner to me.

Valixir nearly won the French Derby last year. In fact, he's twice placed in Group 1's and his only loss below that class in six tries was a smart second to the mighty Bago.

What really captured my attention before the race was that Valixir is trained in France.

It's most unusual to see a French-trained horse run on the flat in Britain before the Guineas meeting. Their big tracks start racing in February and there are plenty of big races for the top horses to run in over there. A French horse would only be shipped across the Channel this early in the year for a really compelling reason. In Valixir's case I suspect it was because his shrewd trainer Andre Fabre saw the prospect of an easy win.

Before Valixir, over the last twenty years Andre Fabre had only five runners in Britain before the Guineas meeting. Here is how they did;

22 April 1988 Soviet Star Trusthouse Forte Mile WON

11April 1992 Lion Cavern Greenham Stakes WON

15April 1992 Steinbeck Free Handicap second

19April 1995 Diffident Free Handicap WON

16April 1999 Xaar Craven Stakes WON

So Valixir spoiled the record a little by running third. However he looked sure to win before hanging and putting his head in the air in the closing stages. Most observers hated the fact that he did this and will almost certainly tip against him next time. But Valixir has always been one of those horses that doesn't like to see too much daylight - and this is hard to avoid in a relatively small field in a nine furlong race up the straight at Newmarket which is one of the world's widest courses.

I reckon the very fact that Fabre brought Valixir over for the race is significant. It suggests strongly that, like Fabre's previous ultra-early season runners, we'll be seeing Valixir cross the Channel for bigger races later on. And given the record of both horse and trainer, I'd sit up and take notice when this happens.

DON'T OPPOSE FULL IRISH

The fastest time of the week over jumps was put up by FULL IRISH (41) who won a strongly contested two mile chase at Ayr in seriously fast time.

The performance was no fluke. Full Irish seems to be deliberately kept fresh for the period from March to early November. He's a small horse so you can chuck out a couple of runs in huge fields (which his trainer agrees he can't handle). Otherwise since his debut, his form from March to early November now shows nine wins from ten starts. His sole loss was a very close second to Mister McGoldrick who I rate one of the fastest chasers in training.

Basically it looks like Full Irish is pretty much unstoppable at this time of year. So I wouldn't want to oppose him whatever he runs against next time.

TURNKEY IS SMART IN MUD

Last year TURNKEY (37) ran seriously fast the only time he encountered really soft ground - running away with a Kempton race by eleven lengths. He repeated the trick on his seasonal debut at Leicester, earning one of the biggest speed ratings I've awarded at three year old so far this term.

It seems quite possible that Turnkey can stretch his stamina to seven furlongs. If he can this would open up more opportunities for him. If not he's going to have to race mostly against older sprinters and that will make it tough for him. In any event, on soft ground Turnkey is a horse I'd be wary of opposing against his own age group. On fast ground he just doesn't seem to let himself down.

DUBAWI - HEY, IT WAS ONLY A GALLOP

A sure sign that the flat season is truly under way is that we've had our first wild ante-post plunge based entirely on homework. The plunge came on DUBAWI (25) after he'd clocked what most observers seem to think was a sensational time for winning a trial held at Nad Al Sheba. In fact Dubawi's time was nothing special. It would be surprising if it was. You just don't ask a horse for an all-out effort in a gallop. You reserve that for actual races.

I concede that Dubawi ran really fast at two (I awarded him a rating of 37 for his best run). He could well win the Guineas, but his odds are now looking awfully thin purely because of a well publicized piece of homework which tells us nothing new about his ability on the racecourse.

VORTEX HOOVERS UP ANOTHER AW RACE

VORTEX (40) went and did it again in a hot conditions race at Lingfield, taking yet another All Weather race. As so often before, he earned a good Group 2 class speed rating for his effort.

Vortex lost his AW debut. But if he hadn't gone under by a neck when giving chunks of weight away in the Lincoln Trial he would have won all his 11 AW runs at trips short of ten furlongs since.

Strangely enough, though he's now lost all but one of his 18 turf starts, Vortex has run just as fast on grass as on the AW. I think the reason he's failed to win as often on the green stuff is that he lacks the instant burst of acceleration which normally wins on turf.

Now Vortex heads off to Sweden in an attempt to beat Eccentric in the Pramms Memorial. That ought to be some race, especially if local AW ace Mandrake El Mago runs as well. Hopefully all three will ship to the states later this year for big races on dirt where I predict they'll do very well indeed.

PSYCHIATRIST (39) finished a good second to Vortex and looks a very interesting prospect for the immediate future. Trainer Richard Hannon says Psychiatrist will come on for the run and that he should improve over longer than the seven furlongs he tried here. That seems logical on the basis of Psychiatrist's past form which showed he's perfectly at home on grass. This run was good enough to win just about any Group 3 according to my speed ratings, and I look forward to seeing Psychiatrist run at that level or lower soon.

BRAVEMORE SHOULD WIN AGAIN

BRAVEMORE (34) dotted up by seven lengths in a maiden on the Polytrack at Wolverhampton. His rating puts him within hailing distance of pattern class for an early season three year old but he looks likely to be eligible for pretty low grade handicaps. He's already proven on turf so I'd say we're looking at a ready-made repeat winner here.

SPRING BREEZE IS INCREDIBLY WELL HANDICAPPED

SPRING BREEZE (37) set a strong pace and kept on running to win a two mile handicap in very fast time for the class at Catterick. He has clearly improved a great deal from three to four. Quite what circumstances suit him best is hard to say for sure though. He's won both times he's run at Catterick. So you could argue he's best on tight tracks. It's also possible he prefers fast ground. But there really isn't enough evidence to say. All I can say is that he is capable of winning much better races than this and looks set to be under-rated by 30 pounds or more in the official ratings even after he's been re-assessed. That means he'll be eligible for more soft races like this one and ought to be able to win several of them.

Runner-up PARADISE FLIGHT (36) looks almost as interesting. Her former trainer, Joanna Morgan said that "she is too small to go hurdling". So I think we can forgive her two recent losses over timber. It's also clear from her pedigree that she's not bred for dirt. That means we can toss her poor run on the Fibresand as well. She won on the Polytrack but the physical properties of that strange surface place it closer to turf than dirt.

All told, if we toss the hurdle and Fibresand runs, plus those on going softer than good (which it seems clear she can't handle) Paradise Flight has won two times out of three at two miles plus, with this smart run representing her sole loss. I look forward to seeing her in another low grade stayer's handicap on fast ground soon where I wouldn't care to oppose her.

THE NUMBER IS MUCH BETTER THAN SELLING CLASS

One of my favorite sort of bets is a horse which wins a selling race in unusually fast time and then steps up to non-selling company. Punters invariably under-rate such a horse and allow it to start at generous odds. The latest candidate for this sort of betting value is THE NUMBER (35) who won a Catterick Seller in a time that would take most class D handicaps. Not surprisingly he was sold in the post-race auction. I look forward to being able to bet him in an ordinary handicap in his next start or two.

THIRD EMPIRE IS UNDER-RATED

THIRD EMPIRE (36) returned form a break of more than eight months to land a Newcastle maiden in unusually fast time. My speed ratings say that he has improved significantly. Seeing that he is still eligible for low grade handicaps, I'd say he is well worth following.

WINGED D'ARGENT AND FRANK SONATA ARE WORTH FOLLOWING

FRANK SONATA (38) was one of the fastest three year olds in Europe last season according to my speed ratings. But I wasn't expecting him to run well on his seasonal debut at Nottingham even though he was contesting a mere Listed race. The reason for my pessimism was that his trainer's brother had described him as 'a big gross horse'. A 'big gross horse' is usually hard to get fit at home and this surely explains why Frank Sonata had run unplaced all five times he hadn't had a run within six weeks prior to this outing (he'd placed six times out of eight with a recent run under his belt).

Frank Sonata surprised me by getting beat just half a length in better than average time for the class. Given his record he ought to improve significantly for the run. So, if he gets the cut in the ground he seems to need he will be tough to beat in the Yorkshire Cup over the same distance - or in any other event come to that.

WINGED D'ARGENT, who just beat Frank Sonata home, is a smart horse in his own right. He clearly had some sort of a problem when losing his second start because he was laid off for six months afterwards. But he's now won all of his other four outings on galloping tracks like Nottingham and beaten horses that I've awarded serious Group class speed ratings into second place in his last three wins.

Winged D'Argent has run well on tight tracks in his previous two races - finishing second to one of the top stayers, Alcazar at Musselburgh then running third in the Queen's Prize on his seasonal debut. But he's a deep-chested sort who takes time to find his stride according to Raceform, so I suspect he's going to prove best on bigger ovals. Given his record, and that of his trainer Mark Johnston, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Winged D'Argent develop into one of the top stayers this season.

MOSCOW FLYER MAKES IT 19 OUT OF 19

I've almost run out of things to say about MOSCOW FLYER (38). He didn't have to run as fast as he can when taking the Melling Chase at Aintree. In doing so he took his record over fences up to 19 wins from 19 completed starts. As I've mentioned before, his pedigree provides every hope that he'll get three miles, so I do hope he does end up taking on Kicking King in next year's King George. That would surely produce one of the most talked about jump races ever.

HOLLAND PARK A GREAT CHASING PROSPECT

One of the fastest times at Aintree was put up by HOLLAND PARK (38) who ran away with the valuable staying handicap hurdle. He's bred for chasing through and through and will return to the bigger jumps next season following his two unlucky falls over fences earlier this season. On this run I have to rate him one of the best prospects for the Sun Alliance and the other big three mile chases for novices next term.

ASHLEY BROOK LOOKS LIKELY TO IMPROVE

I wasn't alone in thinking that the two miles would prove too short for ASHLEY BROOK (38) in the Grade 1 Maghull Novices' Chase at Aintree. But he sorted that problem out for himself by setting a really searching gallop. He ended up winning by a wide margin.

It's always tough to tell which novice chasers are going to prove effective against more experienced rivals next season. The problem is experienced chasers jump a bit quicker. The novices that adapt to the quicker jumping improve their speed ratings by about three or four points and prove competitive against the top experienced chasers. Those that don't regress and perform terribly the next season. On balance though, I suspect Ashley Brook is going to make the required improvement next term. After all, he showed he could jump fast here and has demonstrated tremendous versatility for a horse whose jockey believes is a three mile chaser in the making.

STREAM OF GOLD RUNS A HUGE TIME IN THE LINCOLN

Sir Michael Stoute has a great record with converting older handicappers to Group racers, and he looks set to pull off the trick once again with STREAM OF GOLD (41) who ran away with the Lincoln. I awarded Stream Of Gold a speed rating only one length per mile off Group 1 class, and it certainly looked like he could have gone faster.

Stream Of Gold's brother Spectrum was a Group 1 winner at a mile and ten furlongs. On this run I wouldn't like to say that Stream Of Gold isn't going to prove just as good and stay just as far. He's the find of the season at this point and looks a great prospect. The wonder is that he's ever been beaten.

NEW SEEKER (38) earned another in a string of Group class speed ratings from me to take second. He deserves another shot at pattern company, and with his big official handicap mark a move to black type races seems almost inevitable anyhow.

AUTUMN GLORY COULD BE A GROUP 1 HORSE NOW

AUTUMN GLORY (40) won a red hot renewal of the Doncaster Mile beating two seriously fast Group racers - Hurricane Alan (38) and Putra Pekan (37) into second and third.

The clock says that Autumn Glory has improved a couple of lengths since last season which jibes with trainer Geoff Wragg's assertion that he is indeed improving.

So far Autumn Glory has run unplaced all four times he has run less than a mile and won six of his eight starts at longer. One of the losses was on firm ground at Royal Ascot which Wragg says doesn't suit him. But I have to disagree with Wragg that Autumn Glory actually needs it soft. The race times indicate clearly that the going at Doncaster was two fifths of a second per mile fast. So I'd say Autumn Glory will do fine on anything except the genuinely firm ground we get in the Summer months. It may also be that Autumn Glory can act on any going and simply dislikes undulations. After all he has won six times out of six at a mile or more on tracks without significant undulations.

Wragg is a very conservative trainer and seemed hesitant about Autumn Glory taking up his engagement in the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury. In fact the Lockinge is very often a sub-par Group 1 and plenty of horses have won it that never ran faster than Autumn Glory.

Wherever he goes I'd be wary of opposing Autumn Glory. He could very well turn out to be a Group 1 performer this term.

FOREIGN EDITION IS GROUP CLASS

FOREIGN EDITION (37) earned the biggest speed rating I've given a three year old so far this season when running away with a six furlong maiden on the Lincoln card. It was his racecourse debut and he looked to run green, so improvement seems highly likely. The interesting question is whether or not he's going to stay beyond six furlongs. You can argue this either way on pedigree.

Three year old sprinters are hard to place, but Foreign Edition ran so fast that I just have to note him as a horse worth following. Besides, there is always the possibility he'll get longer and open up more opportunities for himself.

A BUNCH OF SPRINTERS WORTH FOLLOWING

Fast sprinters are a dime a dozen in Britain. Nonetheless I feel I still have to mention the excellent time put up by THE LORD (39) in winning at Musselburgh.

I suspect that the cut in the ground was of assistance to The Lord, whose trainer has said in the past that he doesn't like it firm.

The Lord has already gone on to win again. And I note with interest that he has won two of his three starts at Chester, so with that track's big May meeting coming up I suspect he will be steered towards the valuable five furlong sprint handicap there. If he is I'd give him a major chance.

CAPE ROYAL (40) finished fourth to The Lord on ground that his trainer says was too soft for him. He soon came out to win at Doncaster, earning the biggest speed rating I've ever awarded him. He looks to have improved markedly and is capable of winning a big race sometime this season. He is to be aimed at Chester where he may well get his revenge on The Lord if my ratings are right.

NATIVE TITLE (39) ran right up to his best to take second, showing that he's as good as ever even though he's now seven. He has had bleeding problems and I suspect this is why all his wins have occurred in his first four starts of the year (bleeders tend to be best fresh because it takes their lungs time to heal). This being so I'd look for Native Title to be winning sometime soon.

IFFRAJ (40) is another seriously good British sprinter that ran even faster than The Lord when winning at Kempton. He's very lightly raced and insanely well handicapped, so I think his trainer is right to consider big handicaps like the Wokingham and Stewards' Cup for his charge. Iffraj certainly ran fast enough to win either of those races and looks a great prospect.

Runner-up HIGH REACH (39) ran third in the Wokingham and the Stewards' Cup last year and keeps on running big races without winning. He'll surely take something decent soon.

NERO'S RETURN CAN WIN A BIG HANDICAP

NERO'S RETURN (38) was unbeaten at two, when he won a Listed race. But he blanked as a three year old, failing to reach the first four in seven outings. Now, after being gelded, it looks like he has bounced right back to his best as a four year old. I say this because he earned a Group 3 class speed rating from me to take a red hot mile handicap at Pontefract.

What I find interesting about Nero's Return is that, although he's bred to be a sprinter and has run over six furlongs in six of his ten starts to date, the best speed rating I gave him last term was when he ran over ten furlongs. Here he won over an extremely testing mile on good to soft ground. So I suspect he really is better at longer trips. This is not altogether surprising since he is trained by Mark Johnston who has an amazing knack of training horses to outstay their pedigrees.

I can see Nero's Return winning one of the top mile or ten furlong handicaps this season and will be following his future career with keen interest.

Runner-up CIMYLA (38) only lost in a photo and looks almost as promising. He's lightly raced and highly progressive, having beaten the smart Let's Roll into second on his previous outing. I expect to see him winning a valuable handicap at some point too.

ALFONSO (37) ran a close third and has clearly improved since last season. He seems to have slightly less stamina than the pair that beat him (it seems likely he only just gets the mile). It may also be that he needs a bit of cut in the ground to produce his best. Nonetheless he is still eligible for races well below his true class, so I have to say he's worth following.

COMMON WORLD NOT JUST A MUDLARK

I could see why COMMON WORLD (37) was gambled on for the Lincoln. He earned a pattern class speed rating from me when impressively winning a decent handicap at Cork.

Until the Lincoln my read of Common World was that he'd been been incredibly unlucky with the ground. He won two races on yielding ground in 2002, one of them in Group class time, and then finished a neck second on heavy in a Group 2. But since then he'd only encountered yielding or softer ground at less than ten furlongs once before his latest win. Then along comes the Lincoln which was officially run on good ground (actually I rated it good to firm) and he equals the speed rating he earned at Cork by running third.

It seems to me that something must have been wrong with Common World before this season and now it has been fixed. In any event I am not going to bet against him earning a pattern class speed rating for the third time in a row on his next outing whatever the going.

FLINT RIVER IS UNDER-RATED

FLINT RIVER (37) is seven years old, but he still looks pretty progressive to me. I gave him a Listed class speed rating for his good win at Kempton and I suspect he can follow it up - providing he's put in another race over seven furlongs around a turn on any surface but Polytrack. Seven furlongs does seem to be his specialist distance, and he does seem best around a turn, so he's obviously not that easy to place. I'd bet his shrewd trainer will find him another suitable race soon though, and at this sort of class level I wouldn't want to oppose him.

BRAVEMORE SHOULD WIN AGAIN

BRAVEMORE (34) dotted up by seven lengths in a maiden on the Polytrack at Wolverhampton. His rating puts him within hailing distance of pattern class for an early season three year old but he looks likely to be eligible for pretty low grade handicaps. He's already proven on turf so I'd say we're looking at a ready-made repeat winner here.

RED DEVIL ROBERT CAN WIN A BIG HANDICAP CHASE

Paul Nicholls has had fantastic success with horses that he's given a breathing operation to this term. Most of them won their first two starts following the operation. RED DEVIL ROBERT (39) went one better, making it three wins from three starts since the operation when taking a hot little three mile handicap chase at Newbury.

Nicholls is already thinking of entering Red Devil Robert in next year's Hennessy - quite rightly according to my speed ratings. Meanwhile the horse looks to have a great chance of following up at either Aintree or Ayr which stage his next two potential target races.

Runner-up BEE AN BEE (38) earned a big speed figure when winning the same race in 2004 and did so again despite getting beaten. He's so well handicapped I find it hard to believe his connections won't find a race for him to win soon.

VISTA BELLA NO LONGSHOT IN 1,000 GUINEAS

The bookies were offering prices as big as 50-1 about the chances of VISTA BELLA (37) in the 1,000 Guineas following her success in the Masaka Stakes at Kempton. But the clock says she is no 50-1 shot. She earned what is a seriously good Group class speed rating for a three year old filly this early in the year. And she did it despite running green.

I predicted elsewhere that we we're going to see a different pattern developing in early season flat races this year, with Polytrack winners scoring more and more often. I say this because it's becoming clear that the top stables are starting off an increasing number of their high class horses on the Polytrack before the grass season begins. They're doing so because they've realized that not only are there now good races for them to run in but also most grass horses can adapt to the Polytrack. Polytrack is unlike any other dirt surface. It produces virtually no kickback and is much closer to grass than dirt in its most important physical properties. This is why loads of totally turf-bred horses have won on the surface.

Vista Bella is just such a horse. She won a red hot Polytrack maiden on her debut, earning a pattern class speed rating from me to beat the very smart Mogaamer who pulled six lengths clear of the third. I awarded Mogaamer one of the biggest speed ratings I've ever given a three year old on the AW when he won next time, so the form was certainly franked.

Vista Bella has now shown the sort of improvement horses normally produce on their second start, and it looks clear that she has the scope to progress even further. I say she's going to prove competitive in Group 1 company within her next few starts.

Runner up JOIN ASPIRATION (37) has already proved competitive in Group 1 company, getting to within three lengths of the winner in the Fillies Mile despite a slow start. That was her only loss in three starts till now, so Vista Bella clearly beat a very useful performer here.

I note with interest that Joint Aspiration has been entered in the Oaks as well as the Guineas. I'm beginning to wonder whether she might take after her middle distance dam rather than her sprint sire. It looks like her connections are too, so I'll be rather interested in her chances if she appears in one of the numerous Oaks Trials that are coming up. The 1000 Guineas Trials are mostly over seven furlongs and I suspect her owner and trainer won't want to cut her back to that trip after she's run so well at longer. In any event Joint Aspiration ought to be winning in pattern company very soon - and at nice odds too, seeing how the Masaka looks set to be generally under-rated.

Third placed BORTHWICK GIRL (37) has also gone close in Group 1 company (she was beaten just four lengths in the Moyglare Stud stakes). I can see her winning one of the 1,000 Guineas Trials at big odds. She's certainly fast enough.

MAKABUL FAST ENOUGH TO WIN COVENTRY

You don't see many early season two year olds that earn the comments 'rangy' and 'scope' from Raceform. So it was not really too surprising that MAKABUL (32) ran away with the first turf two year old race of the season in Britain. In doing so he earned a pattern class speed rating from me and instantly became the benchmark against which all other early season two year olds are going to be measured.

I would expect to see Makabul placed to win a Listed or Group race before too long. He's certainly fast enough to have a serious chance in the Coventry come June. Meanwhile he ought to mop up any conditions race he runs in. Whether you'll be able to get any sort of price about him is another matter though.

DETROIT CITY PUTS HIMSELF ON THE MAP

One of the strongest and strangest trends in British flat racing over the past decade has been the migration of high class three year olds from pattern races to handicaps in the early part of the season. Ten years ago the vast majority of big speed figures I awarded three year olds before June were in Listed and Group races. Since then an increasing proportion of the biggest ratings have been earned in handicaps. Two seasons ago a crossover point was reached when more fast runs occurred in early season handicaps than pattern races for the first time.

No such trend has been seen in Ireland, so I'd be pretty confident the British phenomena is linked to their frankly weird idea of diverting prize money towards big handicaps. The good horses follow the prize money, and the youngest ones are the most likely to be unexposed enough to get into a valuable handicap off a low weight - hence the trend - at least that's how I see it.

In any event we've already seen quite a few fast times in UK handicaps by three year olds. And we saw another when DETROIT CITY (34) narrowly won a hot little class E handicap on Lingfield's Polytrack from GURRUN (34).

Gurrun may well not act on turf, seeing how he bombed on grass next time out and on all his previous outings on the green stuff. But he's certainly worth looking out for when he returns to the AW. I'd also be interested in his chances on firm ground (which tends to suit AW performers), especially at Brighton, Epsom or Yarmouth - the three turf courses where AW runners tend to run best.

Detroit City has yet to show whether he can run on grass, but his pedigree gives every hope that he will. Besides most Polytrack winners are able to reproduce their form on grass because the two surfaces have similar physical properties. This being so I'd be wary of opposing Detroit City next time out. He earned a pattern class speed rating for an early season three year old here and has now won all three times he's run beyond ten furlongs.

BLUES AND ROYALS FAST - BUT HE WON'T WIN KENTUCKY DERBY

BLUES AND ROYALS (39) earned a huge speed rating for an early season three year old when running away with the UAE Derby. He clearly took to the dirt surface really well and, according to US speed ratings guru Andy Beyer, ran significantly faster than any US three year old has so far this season.

Blues And Royals looks very likely to stay the extra furlong in the Kentucky Derby, which is now his big target. But I very much doubt that he'll do well in that race if the Sheikh pursues his normal policy of making it his first US start of the year.

History shows that unless a horse is given a prep race in America it has little chance of adapting to the unique conditions of US dirt racing at first time of asking in the Kentucky Derby. Some research I once carried out shows this clearly. I found that over 20 European horses had run in the Kentucky Derby over the last 25 years or so (I'm afraid I've lost the exact figures). Only one of them had a prep race in America in the same year as the big race. This was Bold Arrangement who finished second in the 'run for the roses' in 1986. None of the other European starters even placed.

If Blues And Royals is persevered with in America after the Kentucky Derby he'll become interesting for races like the Travers and the Super Derby (which Godolphin has won before). Right now though, unless the Sheikh changes his policy of preparing horses at home, I'd be laying Blues And Royals till the cow's come home for the Kentucky Derby on Betfair.

ROSES IN MAY WORTH AN ANTE-POST FLUTTER FOR THE BREEDERS' CUP AT 8-1

ROSES IN MAY (44) didn't face a very strong field in the Dubai World Cup. In fact he was the only true Group 1 or Grade 1 winner in the line up. The other two Group 1 winners - Yard-Arm and Adjudi Mitsuo were totally bogus.

Yard-Arm was a Group 1 winner in South Africa. But any South African punter will tell you that their racing is not up to international standard. The rule of thumb everyone uses over there is that a local Group 1 race is the same class as a Group 3 in a major racing nation.

Adjudi Mitsuo scored his Grade 1 win in Japan on dirt. And the same sort of rule applies over there. The Japanese turf horses are definitely world class but their top dirt runners are no better than Group 3 class.

Still, Roses In May won clearly and in very fast time. In fact he ran a bit quicker by my estimates than when chasing home Ghostzapper in the Breeders' Cup Classic last year. This backs up trainer Dale Romans' assertion that Roses In May has improved since that race.

I think Corals are taking a chance offering Roses In May at 8-1 for this year's Breeders' Cup Classic. There are very few decent dirt horses around right now - in America or elsewhere - and current favourite Ghostzapper looks far from sure to last the ten furlongs at Belmont. True, he stayed the distance at Lone Star Park, but Lone Star Park is a dog track in comparison to Belmont. It's only a mile around whereas Belmont's circumference is a mile and a half. I still vividly recall how badly Ghostzapper was tiring at the end of nine furlongs in the Woodward stakes at Belmont last year. He was stopping visibly and I'm convinced that if the race had continued for another furlong he would have been swallowed up by the field instead of winning. Remember Ghostzapper started off as US champion sprinter whereas Roses In May has always been a middle distance horse.

ZIGGY ZEN IS WAY BETTER THAN SELLING CLASS

One of the most profitable situations speed ratings can identify in my experience is when a horse runs a decent time in selling company. Punters generally expect selling platers to flounder when they tackle better company, so they allow them to start at big odds when they step up in class. When the plater isn't really a plater real money can be made.

I believe we saw exactly this situation with ZIGGY ZEN (35) who won a selling hurdle at Newton Abbot in a time that would give him a serious chance in class C company.

After he'd romped home at Kempon on his hurdling debut last season trainer Charlie Mann predicted that Ziggy Zen might well develop into a Sun Alliance candidate. It looks like this was prevented by a recurrence of the horse's old back troubles. But now this problem seems to have been fixed and Ziggy Zen is ready to win again in much better class