|
SPECIOSA THE ONE TO BEAT IN 1000 GUINEAS
A prejudice against small stables is the only way I can
explain the 16-1 and better offered against SPECIOSA (38) winning the 1000
Guineas. She ran a terrific time to take the Nell Gwyn stakes at Newmarket.
Looking through my records I can only find two other three year old fillies that
I've given a speed rating this big so early in the year in recent years - La
Cucaracha and Wince, and they both went on to win Group 1 races. I awarded a
slightly bigger rating to Ouija Board when she took the Pretty Polly Stakes in
early May and she did incredibly well. And I recently gave Time On a rating of
38 and I see her winning a Group 1 too.
Okay, Speciosa is a bit quirky and tacked all the way
across the course. But she ran on the same course that she'll tackle in the big
race, so I don't see it as a big problem given the remarkably fast time she ran.
Trainer Pam Sly says that Speciosa was only 90% fit for
this race and will improve. Logically the filly ought to pick up a bit if she
runs straighter too.
Speciosa proved that she's effective in a big field when
beating the smart Violette in the 14 runner Rockfel Stakes last Autumn. I reckon
she has a major chance of making it three big wins in three starts at Newmarket
next time.
THE OTHER CLASIC TRIALS WERE SLOW
If you're looking for any clues from the clock from the
Craven, Greenham or Fred Darling Stakes forget it. Killybegs (31), Red Clubs
(26) and Nasheej all won in slow time. They may prove competitive in the Guineas
but their runs last week didn't tell us much.
PARADISE ISLE BEST IN A SMALL FIELD
One horse whose name I drew a line through with some
confidence before the Abernant Stakes was PARADISE ISLE (39). The filly has
earned Group class speed ratings from me but previously her wins have all been
in fields of eleven or less - the normal cut-off point for horses that prefer
small fields. But I failed to consider the possibility that the big field would
split, which it did, leaving Paradise Isle with just three opponents racing with
her on the far side of the course.
I'd expect Paradise Isle to revert back to her former ways
in future and run below form in big fields. But she's a nice horse to bear in
mind for the next time she encounters a field of eleven or less.
Runner-up LES ARCS (39) earned a write up from me when
winning in very fast time on his previous start and came within a short head of
making it six in a row here. He's surely going to win in Group company in one of
his next few starts.
FORGERY IS THE REAL THING
FORGERY (39) won the Spring Cup in a time that suggests it
won't be the last big handicap he'll win this year. Thanks to a litany of
injuries he's been lightly raced but now looks ready to make up for lost time. I
see him going close in the John Smiths Cup which is apparently his big target.
ETLAALA UNBEATABLE AT SEVEN FURLONGS
ETLAALA (43) earned the biggest speed rating I've given a
horse all season when blasting Group 1 second Mac Love by five lengths at
Warwick. In doing so he lowered the seven furlong track record set by multiple
Group winner Lucky Spin by half a second - despite the ground being slower, both
officially and by my estimates, than when that one ran the previous fastest
time..
This run suggests that Etlaala is going to prove unbeatable
at what appears to be his specialist distance of 7f. He's now unbeaten in three
runs on fast ground at the trip and trainer Barry Hills is understandably keen
to keep him over the distance.
Etlaala's stated long term target is the Hungerford. But
that's only a Group 3 race and Etlaala is way better than that if my speed
ratings are any guide. Etlaala should be going for the two big Group 1 races at
his sort of distance, the Maurice de Gheest and the Foret in France. In any
event whenever he gets his ground and goes seven furlongs I would not oppose
Etlaala. My ratings say he's a champion over this unusual distance.
RIO RIVA CAN WIN A BIG HANDICAP
I awarded RIO RIVA (40) a Group class speed rating for his
last win in 2005. And he started off 2006 by repeating the performance to win a
hot class 3 handicap at Redcar.
Rio Riva probably failed to handle Polytrack two starts
back. But he'd he'd win both times he'd run beyond a sprint trip before that.
Previously he'd run a neck second to the Group class Tax Free over seven
furlongs while pulling well clear of the third.
I strongly suspect that Rio Riva is best when fresh, so I'd
bet on him needing a break of five weeks or more once he's had another run. That
may well be at Thirsk this weekend where he'll be bidding to make it four out of
four on turf beyond seven furlongs.
Runner-up NAMROC (38) has been running over middle
distances and ran a whole lot faster on the cut back to a mile here. It's
interesting to note that Namroc's sole win to date came over a mile and that the
biggest speed rating I'd awarded him before also came over that distance. I'd
bet on him winning soon and will be very interested in his chances if he's kept
to this trip.
DABBERS RIDGE AND MALCHEEK WORTH FOLLOWING
DABBERS RIDGE (39) and MALCHEEK (38) pulled well clear of a
decent field to go 1-2 in remarkably fast time for a 0-90 handicap at Thirsk.
Both look to be highly progressive types that should win in much better company.
GALIENT LOOKING GOOD FOR QUEEN'S VASE
The middle distance three year old maiden races at the
first Newmarket and Newbury meetings are invariably very strongly contested.
Many of them throw up future Group and even Classic winners. One fine prospect
that certainly looks like a Group winner is GALIENT (37) who won in pattern
class time when scoring at Newmarket. He's a fine big colt according to his
trainer that should excel over two miles, and his main objective is the Queen's
Vase over that trip. Even off this, his first win, he may well end up the
fastest horse going into that race on my speed ratings. I like his chances.
Dante entry ALHAAJES (36) ran green, got unbalanced and
nearly fell, so I'm rating him as a two length loser which seems fair. He looks
a decent prospect for a Derby Trial of some sort. And if he goes for a maiden
race he'd surely dot up.
NIGHT CRESCENDO IS PATTERN CLASS
The better three year old handicaps run in Britain during
the Spring are getting hotter by the year. So it's not surprising NIGHT
CRESCENDO (37) clocked a pattern class time when winning one over a mile at
Newbury.
Night Crescendo is entered in the Derby but one has to
assume he'd have run beyond a mile by now if his connections thought he was a
stayer. In any event he's certainly capable of winning better races than this.
Runner-up ACHEEKYONE (37) pulled clear of the rest and also
looks a decent prospect to earn some black type in the near future.
MIKAO LOOKING GOOD FOR CHESTER CUP
MIKAO (38) earned a Group class speed rating from me when
stepped up to a long trip for the first time last August. He showed that he
could run just as fast over a bit shorter when taking a hot class 3 handicap at
Newmarket over a mile and a half. His objective is the Chester Cup and he'd
certainly be a very interesting player in that race, assuming he makes the cut
and gets a decent draw.
KING'S CAPRICE SMART AT SEVEN FURLONGS
I don't like nominating British sprinters to follow as
there are so many fast ones it's tough for them to win. This is shown by the
record of KING'S CAPRICE (39) who earned a Group class speed rating from me for
the second time in his last four starts but was still scoring for the first time
in his last 19 runs when taking a hot Newmarket handicap over seven furlongs.
The thing is King's Caprice is steadily running faster and
does now seem to have established himself as a seven furlong specialist. I find
it hard to believe that a horse as fast as him can't be placed to win again
sometime soon.
GRECIAN GROOM COULD BE VERY USEFUL
You rarely see a horse run any sort of a time in a bumper
race. So the speed rating that GRECIAN GROOM (28) earned for running away with a
Huntingdon bumper on his racecourse debut is worthy of note. He beat former
winner Mumbles head who'd been good enough to run in the festival Bumper by a
dozen lengths.
How good Grecian Groom will turn out to be I cannot say.
But, slow as his performance is by normal standards, it ranks in the top half
dozen bumper times we've seen this term.
DON'T UNDER-ESTIMATE OUR VIC
OUR VIC (42) routinely runs sensationally fast, and he did
so again when taking a Grade 2 chase at Cheltenham. It's easy to put him down as
being unreliable and quirky. But experience tells me there's always an
explanation for a horse's seeming inconsistency. It's just that with Our Vic I
for one haven't been able to find it yet.
It may be Our Vic is best in small fields or when fresh.
The horse just hasn't run enough times to be sure.
Hopefully I'll come up with a viable theory before he's run
too many times. Right now all I can say is that few chasers have run as fast as
often as he has and that I'd consider him a threat against any horse in training
over fences.
NYRCHE IMPROVES AGAIN
NYRCHE (39) just keeps on running faster, and did so again
when running away with a decent handicap chase at Ayr's big meeting. I'm now
thinking that Nyrche may well be one of those horses that's at his best outside
of the darkest Winter months. After all, since coming to Britain he's won seven
times from eleven tries from March 26th to November 16th but blanked in nine
tries outside that period.
TIME ON IS A CLASSIC CONTENDER
TIME ON (38) earned the biggest speed rating I've given a
three year old beyond a sprint trip this season when winning a Folkestone
maiden. She was eased up at the finish when four lengths clear, so it looks
likely she can actually run even faster. She's the first foal of Time Away,
twice placed in Group 1 company at ten furlongs. My ratings say that Time On is
probably going to prove as good as her dam.
If she were mine I wouldn't be messing around with an Oaks
Trial for Time On. I'd be shooting for a Group 1 race right away with the Prix
Saint Alary and then the Prix de Diane in which her dam ran third. Another
attractive target would be the very valuable Italian Oaks, though I concede Time
On might be pressed to get the 11 furlongs of that race (I'd bet on her proving
to be a ten furlong horse like her sire and dam - and that's why she wasn't
entered in the Oaks at Epsom).
Runner-up VIRGIN ISLANDS (36) is much more the sort of
horse for an Oaks trial. She's already entered in the Oaks itself and ran just a
shade slower than the average Oaks Trial winner here. She pulled a huge thirteen
lengths clear of the other nine runners and is clearly a pattern class filly.
Seeing that she's still not a winner I guess her connections will want to go for
a maiden next time which means she won't be much of a price. After that though
she should offer some value in something like the Lupe Stakes or Cheshire Oaks.
REVERENCE IS A TOP CLASS SPRINTER
REVERENCE (40) earned a Group 1 class speed rating from me
when winning at Doncaster last October. He didn't have to run quite that fast to
score at Nottingham last week. But he still ran awfully fast and extended his
unbeaten streak at five furlongs to five races.
Right now I wouldn't want to be any horse against Reverence
over five furlongs and fully expect to see him win in pattern company next time.
Long term the race I'd love to see him go for is the Abbaye.
FRANK SONATA DOES IT AGAIN
It's not often that a horse earns as many Group class speed
ratings from me as FRANK SONATA (39) has without winning a Group race. But that's
still the situation after Mick Quinlan's charge ran seriously fast to take a
Listed race over a mile and three quarters at Nottingham.
Clearly Frank Sonata is best with cut in the ground. It may
also be that he's best when fresh. Most horses that are best fresh run to their
top form on their first two runs of the season and then require a break of at
least five weeks between races in order to run well again. Four of Frank
Sonata's five wins have conformed to this pattern, though I concede it may be
different this year as the horse has apparently strengthened up this year. In
any event, providing he gets his ground, Frank Sonata should be a major threat
to score next time whether it's in the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup or the Group 3
Betty Barclay-Rennen in Germany which are his next alternatives.
It's interesting to note that Frank Sonata got beat
narrowly in the same Nottingham race last year by WINGED D'ARGENT (38). I'm now
inclined to believe that Winged D'Argent is a very smart horse when he gets cut
in the ground and runs on a galloping track. He's won four of the five times
he's run in these circumstances. His sole loss was in a slow run race at a
hopelessly inadequate ten furlongs where he got caught flat footed when the
leaders quickened. I can see why Mark Johnston rates Winged D'Argent so highly
and look forward to seeing the horse run on a galloping track with cut in the
ground again soon - perhaps in the Yorkshire Cup for which he's entered.
CARSON'S SPIRIT A USEFUL JUVENILE
If you look at the pedigree of CARSON'S SPIRIT (32) you'd
think he's a typical early season five furlong juvenile speedball that's going
to slip off the radar as soon as distances get longer. But although he did win
over the minimum trip in fast time I suspect Carons's Spirit is actually going
to stay longer.
Although he's by Carons City who gets stacks of early
season 5f juvenile winners in the states out of a dam that was best at 7-8f
there's clearly stamina in his pedigree. His full brother Phersande is a decent
French maiden. From three starts to date his best run was a close fourth in a
nine furlong maiden that's worked out well. Only two of the three that finished
in front of him have run since but both placed in Listed company. Carson's
Spirit's dam has had no other foals, but her own dam has produced eight other
horses to race. Seven of the eight stayed at least ten furlongs and three of
them were hurdlers.
I'd keep an eye on Carson's Spirit. He's capable of at
least placing in pattern company on this run.
Runner-up ALTERNATIVE (30) is more obviously bred to get
longer and is a good deal faster than the average early season two year old
maiden winner. He ought to win soon and should improve as distances lengthen for
juveniles.
NO WORRIES YET BETTER THAN SELLING CLASS
NO WORRIES YET (30) ran an unusually fast time for the
class when winning a juvenile selling race at Bath on her racecourse debut. In a
race where the second and third were claimed for 6,000 pounds it's surprising
that her connections were able to retain her with a bid of just 4,800. I suspect
time will show that No Worries Yet is much better than selling class. My speed
ratings are already saying that and I can see her winning a much better race
next time out.
MANEKI NEKO A GOOD PROSPECT FOR FLAT & JUMPS
MANEKI NEKO (37) won a long distance Catterick handicap in
a time that I rate Listed class. He'd won the only previous time he'd completed
the course on the flat at longer trips (he slipped up once). In addition he'd
shown some very promising form over hurdles, notably finishing a good second to
the promising Jack The Giant.
No doubt Maneki Neko's connections will want to retain his
novice status over hurdles for next season. So I'd be on him continuing to be
campaigned on the flat in the immediate future. He should do well because there
are few horses as fast at long trips at the class level he's currently eligible
for. He should be well worth waiting for over timber too as I suspect he's going
to improve when given the chance to run two and a half miles.
TOTAL IMPACT IS A USEFUL 3YO SPRINTER
TOTAL IMPACT (37) won a hot handicap on Kempton's Polytrack
in Listed class time. If a photo finish had gone the other way he'd be unbeaten
in three starts this season. Obviously he's a useful young sprinter. It could be
that, like his dam's only other foal to race Scarlet Secret, he only acts on the
AW. But most Polytrack performers handle firm turf so I'd bet on Total Impact
winning on the green stuff when the weather turns drier.
Runner-up PRINCE TAMINO (37) has been unlucky to bump up
against smart sorts in his last two outings. He'll surely be found a race soon.
IRELAND ARE GOING TO KEEP ON WINNING THE NATIONAL
In the last two seasons Irish runners have dominated the
big British jumps races. There have been twelve British chases and hurdles worth
100,000 pounds or more to the winner, and Irish horses have won ten of them.
Irish horses went 1-2-3 in the Gold Cup and Champion Hurdle at the Cheltenham
Festival, and 1-2-4 in the next most valuable race at the meeting, the Champion
Chase. At Aintree Irish horses filled the first three places in the biggest
Grade 1 hurdle race of the meeting, the Aintree Hurdle. They also swept the
board in the biggest Grade 1 race over fences, the Melling Chase.
In the Grand National it would have again been an Irish
1-2-3 if only Nil Desperandum hadn't lost third by a short head.
The truth is racing is in a much better state financially
in Ireland than it is in Britain, and with Ireland placing a much greater
emphasis on jump racing it's not surprising that they're now dominating the
Winter game
NUMBERSIXVALVERDIE (39) was the fifth Irish-trained winner
of the Grand National in the last eight years. I'd bet on there being another
Irish trained winner next year too. And that winner might well be
Numbersixvalverdie again as the horse has now won both times he's run a marathon
distance (the other time was of course in the Irish National).
I think Hedgehunter has had his day as far as the Grand
National is concerned. The race is much more competitive nowadays and it's much
harder to concede weight as he did here and will have to again next year.
If next year's winner ran in this year's race and is again
going to be Irish-trained my money would actually be on Nil Desperandum. He
looked like the winner to me jumping the last, and I suspect he would have been
on slightly faster ground. He's younger than those that finished in front of him
and would be my long term pick for the race at this stage.
STATE OF PLAY IS VERY SMART
STATE OF PLAY (41) ran away with the valuable betfair.com
handicap chase at Aintree. The time he recorded marks him out as one of the very
best novice chasers we've seen this season.
State Of Play is not a very big horse, and like many such
horses he may well be best when fresh. His trainer also says he is best with a
bit of cut in the ground. So far the horse has won four of the five times he's
run two and a half miles or more. His sole loss came on ground that was probably
too quick for him in the Feltham Novice's Chase.
I see State Of Play as a very interesting proposition for
more big handicap chases next term. And I wouldn't rule out the chances of him
developing into a candidate for the King George or the Gold Cup.
REFINEMENT IMPROVES OVER LONGER TRIP
REFINEMENT (40) was a seriously fast bumper horse and has
been running steadily faster over hurdles as she's been stepped up in trip. She
earned the biggest speed rating I've ever given her over timber when winning a
valuable Listed hurdle over thee miles at Aintree.
Refinement's only loss in her last eight starts came when
she was a staying on third in the recent Sun Alliance Hurdle at Cheltenham. Over
this longer trip she ran a good deal better and now looks like a decent
candidate for the World Hurdle next season. I'd be wary of betting anything
against her over three miles plus.
TWO MILES TOO SHORT FOR ASIAN MAZE
ASIAN MAZE (40) won the Aintree Hurdle by no less than 17
lengths from HARDY EUSTACE (33). But I wouldn't go running away with the idea
that this means she's some sort of superhorse. It's now looking likely that the
reason Hardy Eustace has been steered away from tight tracks since his flop at
Aintree back in 2003 is that he's much better on more galloping courses. Apart
from him, this was not a strong field.
I'd bet on Hardy Eustace bouncing back to his best at
Punchestown. And I'd bet against Asian Maze if her connections really do go
through with the idea of running her over two miles next season as is apparently
planned. She's lost all nine times she's run over less than two and a quarter
miles and won eight out of ten at that distance or longer.
HOLY JOE SHOULD WIN SOON
HEVER ROAD (36) showed improved form to take a good class 3
handicap chase at Exeter. He's relatively lightly raced, and this was the first
time he'd run three miles or more over fences following a recent run. I'd bet on
him winning again soon.
Runner-up HOLY JOE (36) looks an even better prospect,
providing he can be found some soft ground. According
to my going allowances Holy Joe raced on genuinely soft or heavy ground at long
distances five times in France (two and a half miles plus over hurdles or three
miles plus over fences). He won two of these five times. In two of his three
defeats he finished second in valuable Grade 3 chases. And in the other loss he
got to within six lengths of the winner in another hot Grade 3 handicap chase.
In that last big handicap chase I mentioned Holy Joe had to
carry top weight but finished only four lengths behind Innox. Innox is currently
rated much higher than Holy Joe on official ratings in Britain. So if Holy Joe
runs on soft ground soon I wouldn't oppose him.
MY WAY DE SOLZEN NEEDS TO BE FRESH
Mighty Man (40) ran a very fast time to run third to My Way
De Solzen in the World Hurdle. He actually ran a bit slower by my estimates when
gaining his revenge on the winner at Aintree. His win was, I strongly suspect,
due to his rival being past his best rather than any improvement on his part.
MY WAY DE SOLZEN (38) looks to be best when he's fresh. His
record is very smart on his first two runs off a break of two months or so and
then with a rest of five weeks plus thereafter. But so far, whenever he's not
been kept fresh in this way he's run below form.
My speed ratings say that when he's fresh My Way De Solzen
is very fast indeed.
HAIL THE CHIEF NO BACK NUMBER
HAIL THE CHIEF (38) is best known for winning a whole
string of AW races and then the valuable Hawthorne Gold Cup on dirt in America.
But the old boy is no back number according to my speed ratings. He once more
ran a pattern class time to take a Leicester handicap over a mile from a decent
field.
It seems rather significant that Hail The Chief has won the
last three times he's run on a straight turf course at seven furlongs or a mile
with cut in the ground. If he meets these circumstances next time out I'd bet on
him winning again.
TAMAGIN IS FAST
A strange trend has emerged in Britain over the last
decade. More and more three year olds have been running fast times in handicaps
during the Spring. Ten years ago I was awarding far more big speed ratings to
three year old runners in pattern races before June. The fast times run by
handicappers have now increased to the point where they earn big speed ratings
more often than in Listed and Group company this early in the season.
The trend continued when TAMAGIN (36) beat a red hot little
field over a mile in a handicap on the Polytrack at Lingfield.
Tamagin is clearly not suited to the tight turns of
Wolverhampton. But he's been doing very well indeed since stepping up to longer
trips at Lingfield. The downside is that he's already had eight runs this year
and will surely need a break soon. Nonetheless I'd be wary of opposing him next
time unless he cuts back to a sprint trip or runs on a really tight track like
Wolverhampton. He's a pattern class horse according to my speed ratings yet
remains eligible for low grade handicaps.
KALANKARI (36) ran a big race to run Tamagin to a neck.
He'd won pretty well on his 2006 debut previously and has clearly improved from
two to three. I'd be surprised to see him beat next time.
GO FIGURE (34) looked a progressive horse when winning over
seven furlongs on his previous start and confirmed that impression by running
faster to take third here. He was unlucky to come up against two such smart
rivals in an ordinary race and will surely win again soon.
FORTUNATE ISLE CAN WIN A BIG HANDICAP
FORTUNATE ISLE (37) ran a fast time to take an unusually
valuable 0-95 handicap at Pontefract by almost three lengths. He's only made it
to the races three times due to training setbacks, but his form certainly
doesn't read like that of a 0-95 handicapper. He was second on his racecourse
debut to subsequent Group 3 winner Rob Roy despite being backward. Then he won a
good maiden from Bahar Shumaal who went on to finish fifth in the Irish Derby a
couple of runs later. And now this.
My ratings say that Fortunate Isle is capable of wining at
least a Listed race. But his handicap mark makes him eligible for ordinary
handicaps. With so much money available for the big handicaps these days it
would make sense for his connections to exploit the handicapping blooper and
delay running Fortunate Isle in pattern company for a bit. I see him as a prime
candidate for a big handicap over the next month or two.
MR LAMBROS IS GROUP CLASS
MR LAMBROS (40) earned a Group class speed rating for the second
time in a row when bolting up in a conditions race at Lingfield. His jockey said
earlier that "when he gets his way in front he's very hard to get by".
That certainly proved to be the case here. And it says a lot for the talent of
SOMETHING that Terry Mills' charge was able to go past him last time.
If he were mine I'd be targeting Listed and Group races
with Mr Lambros over his specialist trip of seven furlongs. In big handicaps
he's always going to be in danger of getting taken on for the lead and made to
go too fast early for his own good.
DON'T DILI DALI LIVES UP TO HER NAME
I reckon there's a widespread prejudice against All Weather
winners. This has never made any sense to me, especially since the advent of
Polytrack which suits turf horses perfectly. But the prejudice should ensure
that DON'T DILI DALI (37) starts at decent odds when she steps up in class
following her win in the Listed Masaka Stakes on Kempton's new Polytrack.
In 2004 and 2005 no 1,000 Guineas Trial worked out better
than the Masaka Stakes. The winners both placed in the Classic while all the
other 1,000 Guineas Trials winners ran unplaced. Don't Dili Dali ran as fast as
either of those Masaka winners according to my speed ratings. It's just a pity
she isn't entered in the Newmarket Classic. She is in the Irish 1,000 Guineas
though, and her trainer thinks she'll have a great chance in the Italian Oaks
after that. My numbers say he's right.
I had thought that SONG OF SILENCE (35) would win the race
as she was the fastest runner on my speed ratings. She certainly looked like
winning with 100 yards to run (she was ten to one on in running on Betfair at
that point). And it says a lot for the tremendous finishing burst produced by
Don't Dili Dali that she ended up getting beat by two lengths. Song Of Silence
should be able to win a Listed race herself on this showing. And her run
certainly franks the form of ROYAL RESERVATION (36) who I should have written up
after he'd beaten Song Of Silence and that other very smart AW filly Fusili at
Lingfield.
BORDER MUSIC IS GROUP CLASS
There are a ludicrous number of high class sprinters in
Britain, so it's tough to make money following them except when they race
abroad. Nonetheless I'm compelled to mention BORDER MUSIC (40) who earned a
Group 2 class speed rating from me when winning a hot six furlong conditions
race on the Polytrack at Kempton.
Border Music's trainer, Andrew Balding, apparently believes
his charge is best around a turn. But my ratings show he ran almost as fast when
going under narrowly up the straight at Newmarket last September. So my money is
on fast ground being his prime requirement. If I'm right then Border Music has a
great chance of landing a big sprint handicap on turf soon as his turf mark is
much lower than his AW one.
PRESTO SHINKO (40) was trying for five wins in a row and
only just went under. His trainer predicted last year that he'd be a Group 1
sprinter in 2006. All Presto Shinko has to do is improve by a length or so to
make the prediction come true. Certainly he should win a Group sprint in one of
his next few runs.
YOUNG MICK IS STILL VERY WELL HANDICAPPED
YOUNG MICK (38) ran a Group 3 time to sprint away with a
decent handicap at Yarmouth. If he hadn't lost in photos when twice running over
trips on the short side for him this would have been his eighth win in a row.
The objective now is apparently the Roseberry handicap at
Kempton, and he belongs in that sort of race according to my speed ratings.
Actually I'd have preferred his original target, the Ebor, as the Roseberry is
over a mere ten furlongs and his two biggest speed ratings have been earned over
11.5f and 12f.
The downside about Young Mick is that he's now packed ten
runs into three months. No horse can hold its form much longer than this over
middle distances if its raced that often. However Young Mick did so when running
second in fast time on his next outing a few days later. So I'd be wary of
saying he'll run below this level any time soon.
COUNTRY PURSUIT SHOULD BE FOLLOWED
YOUNG MICK (37) has been winning everything in sight
recently. But COUNTRY PURSUIT (38) beat him fair and square in pattern class
time at Lingfield last Saturday.
Country Pursuit seems to have improved markedly from three
to four and should be capable of winning much better races than this. He's still
very well handicapped, so I imagine he'll not be trying pattern company, as he
did last year, until he's won a few more times. I wouldn't care to oppose him
till he does.
RED EVIE CAN WIN AGAIN
RED EVIE (35) won a seven furlong maiden at Yarmouth in
unusually fast time for a three year old filly this early in the season. It's a
pity she isn't racing in America as she'd be able to run in a whole slew of
stakes races at short trips restricted to her age and sex. In Britain she's
almost certainly going to have to run in handicaps, and British three year old
handicaps are red hot affairs in the Spring. Nonetheless she ran quick enough
here to win a good 3YO handicap and I'd bet on her doing so next time.
|