UK APRIL 06

 

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SPECIOSA THE ONE TO BEAT IN 1000 GUINEAS

A prejudice against small stables is the only way I can explain the 16-1 and better offered against SPECIOSA (38) winning the 1000 Guineas. She ran a terrific time to take the Nell Gwyn stakes at Newmarket. Looking through my records I can only find two other three year old fillies that I've given a speed rating this big so early in the year in recent years - La Cucaracha and Wince, and they both went on to win Group 1 races. I awarded a slightly bigger rating to Ouija Board when she took the Pretty Polly Stakes in early May and she did incredibly well. And I recently gave Time On a rating of 38 and I see her winning a Group 1 too.

Okay, Speciosa is a bit quirky and tacked all the way across the course. But she ran on the same course that she'll tackle in the big race, so I don't see it as a big problem given the remarkably fast time she ran.

Trainer Pam Sly says that Speciosa was only 90% fit for this race and will improve. Logically the filly ought to pick up a bit if she runs straighter too.

Speciosa proved that she's effective in a big field when beating the smart Violette in the 14 runner Rockfel Stakes last Autumn. I reckon she has a major chance of making it three big wins in three starts at Newmarket next time.

 

THE OTHER CLASIC TRIALS WERE SLOW

If you're looking for any clues from the clock from the Craven, Greenham or Fred Darling Stakes forget it. Killybegs (31), Red Clubs (26) and Nasheej all won in slow time. They may prove competitive in the Guineas but their runs last week didn't tell us much.

 

PARADISE ISLE BEST IN A SMALL FIELD

One horse whose name I drew a line through with some confidence before the Abernant Stakes was PARADISE ISLE (39). The filly has earned Group class speed ratings from me but previously her wins have all been in fields of eleven or less - the normal cut-off point for horses that prefer small fields. But I failed to consider the possibility that the big field would split, which it did, leaving Paradise Isle with just three opponents racing with her on the far side of the course.

I'd expect Paradise Isle to revert back to her former ways in future and run below form in big fields. But she's a nice horse to bear in mind for the next time she encounters a field of eleven or less.

Runner-up LES ARCS (39) earned a write up from me when winning in very fast time on his previous start and came within a short head of making it six in a row here. He's surely going to win in Group company in one of his next few starts.

 

FORGERY IS THE REAL THING

FORGERY (39) won the Spring Cup in a time that suggests it won't be the last big handicap he'll win this year. Thanks to a litany of injuries he's been lightly raced but now looks ready to make up for lost time. I see him going close in the John Smiths Cup which is apparently his big target.

 

ETLAALA UNBEATABLE AT SEVEN FURLONGS

ETLAALA (43) earned the biggest speed rating I've given a horse all season when blasting Group 1 second Mac Love by five lengths at Warwick. In doing so he lowered the seven furlong track record set by multiple Group winner Lucky Spin by half a second - despite the ground being slower, both officially and by my estimates, than when that one ran the previous fastest time..

This run suggests that Etlaala is going to prove unbeatable at what appears to be his specialist distance of 7f. He's now unbeaten in three runs on fast ground at the trip and trainer Barry Hills is understandably keen to keep him over the distance.

Etlaala's stated long term target is the Hungerford. But that's only a Group 3 race and Etlaala is way better than that if my speed ratings are any guide. Etlaala should be going for the two big Group 1 races at his sort of distance, the Maurice de Gheest and the Foret in France. In any event whenever he gets his ground and goes seven furlongs I would not oppose Etlaala. My ratings say he's a champion over this unusual distance.

 

RIO RIVA CAN WIN A BIG HANDICAP

I awarded RIO RIVA (40) a Group class speed rating for his last win in 2005. And he started off 2006 by repeating the performance to win a hot class 3 handicap at Redcar.

Rio Riva probably failed to handle Polytrack two starts back. But he'd he'd win both times he'd run beyond a sprint trip before that. Previously he'd run a neck second to the Group class Tax Free over seven furlongs while pulling well clear of the third.

I strongly suspect that Rio Riva is best when fresh, so I'd bet on him needing a break of five weeks or more once he's had another run. That may well be at Thirsk this weekend where he'll be bidding to make it four out of four on turf beyond seven furlongs.

Runner-up NAMROC (38) has been running over middle distances and ran a whole lot faster on the cut back to a mile here. It's interesting to note that Namroc's sole win to date came over a mile and that the biggest speed rating I'd awarded him before also came over that distance. I'd bet on him winning soon and will be very interested in his chances if he's kept to this trip.

 

DABBERS RIDGE AND MALCHEEK WORTH FOLLOWING

DABBERS RIDGE (39) and MALCHEEK (38) pulled well clear of a decent field to go 1-2 in remarkably fast time for a 0-90 handicap at Thirsk. Both look to be highly progressive types that should win in much better company.

 

GALIENT LOOKING GOOD FOR QUEEN'S VASE

The middle distance three year old maiden races at the first Newmarket and Newbury meetings are invariably very strongly contested. Many of them throw up future Group and even Classic winners. One fine prospect that certainly looks like a Group winner is GALIENT (37) who won in pattern class time when scoring at Newmarket. He's a fine big colt according to his trainer that should excel over two miles, and his main objective is the Queen's Vase over that trip. Even off this, his first win, he may well end up the fastest horse going into that race on my speed ratings. I like his chances.

Dante entry ALHAAJES (36) ran green, got unbalanced and nearly fell, so I'm rating him as a two length loser which seems fair. He looks a decent prospect for a Derby Trial of some sort. And if he goes for a maiden race he'd surely dot up.

 

NIGHT CRESCENDO IS PATTERN CLASS

The better three year old handicaps run in Britain during the Spring are getting hotter by the year. So it's not surprising NIGHT CRESCENDO (37) clocked a pattern class time when winning one over a mile at Newbury.

Night Crescendo is entered in the Derby but one has to assume he'd have run beyond a mile by now if his connections thought he was a stayer. In any event he's certainly capable of winning better races than this.

Runner-up ACHEEKYONE (37) pulled clear of the rest and also looks a decent prospect to earn some black type in the near future.

 

MIKAO LOOKING GOOD FOR CHESTER CUP

MIKAO (38) earned a Group class speed rating from me when stepped up to a long trip for the first time last August. He showed that he could run just as fast over a bit shorter when taking a hot class 3 handicap at Newmarket over a mile and a half. His objective is the Chester Cup and he'd certainly be a very interesting player in that race, assuming he makes the cut and gets a decent draw.

 

KING'S CAPRICE SMART AT SEVEN FURLONGS

I don't like nominating British sprinters to follow as there are so many fast ones it's tough for them to win. This is shown by the record of KING'S CAPRICE (39) who earned a Group class speed rating from me for the second time in his last four starts but was still scoring for the first time in his last 19 runs when taking a hot Newmarket handicap over seven furlongs.

The thing is King's Caprice is steadily running faster and does now seem to have established himself as a seven furlong specialist. I find it hard to believe that a horse as fast as him can't be placed to win again sometime soon.

 

GRECIAN GROOM COULD BE VERY USEFUL

You rarely see a horse run any sort of a time in a bumper race. So the speed rating that GRECIAN GROOM (28) earned for running away with a Huntingdon bumper on his racecourse debut is worthy of note. He beat former winner Mumbles head who'd been good enough to run in the festival Bumper by a dozen lengths.

How good Grecian Groom will turn out to be I cannot say. But, slow as his performance is by normal standards, it ranks in the top half dozen bumper times we've seen this term.

 

DON'T UNDER-ESTIMATE OUR VIC

OUR VIC (42) routinely runs sensationally fast, and he did so again when taking a Grade 2 chase at Cheltenham. It's easy to put him down as being unreliable and quirky. But experience tells me there's always an explanation for a horse's seeming inconsistency. It's just that with Our Vic I for one haven't been able to find it yet.

It may be Our Vic is best in small fields or when fresh. The horse just hasn't run enough times to be sure.

Hopefully I'll come up with a viable theory before he's run too many times. Right now all I can say is that few chasers have run as fast as often as he has and that I'd consider him a threat against any horse in training over fences.

 

NYRCHE IMPROVES AGAIN

NYRCHE (39) just keeps on running faster, and did so again when running away with a decent handicap chase at Ayr's big meeting. I'm now thinking that Nyrche may well be one of those horses that's at his best outside of the darkest Winter months. After all, since coming to Britain he's won seven times from eleven tries from March 26th to November 16th but blanked in nine tries outside that period.

 

TIME ON IS A CLASSIC CONTENDER

TIME ON (38) earned the biggest speed rating I've given a three year old beyond a sprint trip this season when winning a Folkestone maiden. She was eased up at the finish when four lengths clear, so it looks likely she can actually run even faster. She's the first foal of Time Away, twice placed in Group 1 company at ten furlongs. My ratings say that Time On is probably going to prove as good as her dam.

If she were mine I wouldn't be messing around with an Oaks Trial for Time On. I'd be shooting for a Group 1 race right away with the Prix Saint Alary and then the Prix de Diane in which her dam ran third. Another attractive target would be the very valuable Italian Oaks, though I concede Time On might be pressed to get the 11 furlongs of that race (I'd bet on her proving to be a ten furlong horse like her sire and dam - and that's why she wasn't entered in the Oaks at Epsom).

Runner-up VIRGIN ISLANDS (36) is much more the sort of horse for an Oaks trial. She's already entered in the Oaks itself and ran just a shade slower than the average Oaks Trial winner here. She pulled a huge thirteen lengths clear of the other nine runners and is clearly a pattern class filly. Seeing that she's still not a winner I guess her connections will want to go for a maiden next time which means she won't be much of a price. After that though she should offer some value in something like the Lupe Stakes or Cheshire Oaks.

 

 

REVERENCE IS A TOP CLASS SPRINTER

REVERENCE (40) earned a Group 1 class speed rating from me when winning at Doncaster last October. He didn't have to run quite that fast to score at Nottingham last week. But he still ran awfully fast and extended his unbeaten streak at five furlongs to five races.

Right now I wouldn't want to be any horse against Reverence over five furlongs and fully expect to see him win in pattern company next time. Long term the race I'd love to see him go for is the Abbaye.

 

FRANK SONATA DOES IT AGAIN

It's not often that a horse earns as many Group class speed ratings from me as FRANK SONATA (39) has without winning a Group race. But that's still the situation after Mick Quinlan's charge ran seriously fast to take a Listed race over a mile and three quarters at Nottingham.

Clearly Frank Sonata is best with cut in the ground. It may also be that he's best when fresh. Most horses that are best fresh run to their top form on their first two runs of the season and then require a break of at least five weeks between races in order to run well again. Four of Frank Sonata's five wins have conformed to this pattern, though I concede it may be different this year as the horse has apparently strengthened up this year. In any event, providing he gets his ground, Frank Sonata should be a major threat to score next time whether it's in the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup or the Group 3 Betty Barclay-Rennen in Germany which are his next alternatives.

It's interesting to note that Frank Sonata got beat narrowly in the same Nottingham race last year by WINGED D'ARGENT (38). I'm now inclined to believe that Winged D'Argent is a very smart horse when he gets cut in the ground and runs on a galloping track. He's won four of the five times he's run in these circumstances. His sole loss was in a slow run race at a hopelessly inadequate ten furlongs where he got caught flat footed when the leaders quickened. I can see why Mark Johnston rates Winged D'Argent so highly and look forward to seeing the horse run on a galloping track with cut in the ground again soon - perhaps in the Yorkshire Cup for which he's entered.

 

CARSON'S SPIRIT A USEFUL JUVENILE

If you look at the pedigree of CARSON'S SPIRIT (32) you'd think he's a typical early season five furlong juvenile speedball that's going to slip off the radar as soon as distances get longer. But although he did win over the minimum trip in fast time I suspect Carons's Spirit is actually going to stay longer.

Although he's by Carons City who gets stacks of early season 5f juvenile winners in the states out of a dam that was best at 7-8f there's clearly stamina in his pedigree. His full brother Phersande is a decent French maiden. From three starts to date his best run was a close fourth in a nine furlong maiden that's worked out well. Only two of the three that finished in front of him have run since but both placed in Listed company. Carson's Spirit's dam has had no other foals, but her own dam has produced eight other horses to race. Seven of the eight stayed at least ten furlongs and three of them were hurdlers.

I'd keep an eye on Carson's Spirit. He's capable of at least placing in pattern company on this run.

Runner-up ALTERNATIVE (30) is more obviously bred to get longer and is a good deal faster than the average early season two year old maiden winner. He ought to win soon and should improve as distances lengthen for juveniles.

 

NO WORRIES YET BETTER THAN SELLING CLASS

NO WORRIES YET (30) ran an unusually fast time for the class when winning a juvenile selling race at Bath on her racecourse debut. In a race where the second and third were claimed for 6,000 pounds it's surprising that her connections were able to retain her with a bid of just 4,800. I suspect time will show that No Worries Yet is much better than selling class. My speed ratings are already saying that and I can see her winning a much better race next time out.

 

MANEKI NEKO A GOOD PROSPECT FOR FLAT & JUMPS

MANEKI NEKO (37) won a long distance Catterick handicap in a time that I rate Listed class. He'd won the only previous time he'd completed the course on the flat at longer trips (he slipped up once). In addition he'd shown some very promising form over hurdles, notably finishing a good second to the promising Jack The Giant.

No doubt Maneki Neko's connections will want to retain his novice status over hurdles for next season. So I'd be on him continuing to be campaigned on the flat in the immediate future. He should do well because there are few horses as fast at long trips at the class level he's currently eligible for. He should be well worth waiting for over timber too as I suspect he's going to improve when given the chance to run two and a half miles.

 

TOTAL IMPACT IS A USEFUL 3YO SPRINTER

TOTAL IMPACT (37) won a hot handicap on Kempton's Polytrack in Listed class time. If a photo finish had gone the other way he'd be unbeaten in three starts this season. Obviously he's a useful young sprinter. It could be that, like his dam's only other foal to race Scarlet Secret, he only acts on the AW. But most Polytrack performers handle firm turf so I'd bet on Total Impact winning on the green stuff when the weather turns drier.

Runner-up PRINCE TAMINO (37) has been unlucky to bump up against smart sorts in his last two outings. He'll surely be found a race soon.

 

IRELAND ARE GOING TO KEEP ON WINNING THE NATIONAL

In the last two seasons Irish runners have dominated the big British jumps races. There have been twelve British chases and hurdles worth 100,000 pounds or more to the winner, and Irish horses have won ten of them. Irish horses went 1-2-3 in the Gold Cup and Champion Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, and 1-2-4 in the next most valuable race at the meeting, the Champion Chase. At Aintree Irish horses filled the first three places in the biggest Grade 1 hurdle race of the meeting, the Aintree Hurdle. They also swept the board in the biggest Grade 1 race over fences, the Melling Chase.

In the Grand National it would have again been an Irish 1-2-3 if only Nil Desperandum hadn't lost third by a short head.

The truth is racing is in a much better state financially in Ireland than it is in Britain, and with Ireland placing a much greater emphasis on jump racing it's not surprising that they're now dominating the Winter game

NUMBERSIXVALVERDIE (39) was the fifth Irish-trained winner of the Grand National in the last eight years. I'd bet on there being another Irish trained winner next year too. And that winner might well be Numbersixvalverdie again as the horse has now won both times he's run a marathon distance (the other time was of course in the Irish National).

I think Hedgehunter has had his day as far as the Grand National is concerned. The race is much more competitive nowadays and it's much harder to concede weight as he did here and will have to again next year.

If next year's winner ran in this year's race and is again going to be Irish-trained my money would actually be on Nil Desperandum. He looked like the winner to me jumping the last, and I suspect he would have been on slightly faster ground. He's younger than those that finished in front of him and would be my long term pick for the race at this stage.

 

STATE OF PLAY IS VERY SMART

STATE OF PLAY (41) ran away with the valuable betfair.com handicap chase at Aintree. The time he recorded marks him out as one of the very best novice chasers we've seen this season.

State Of Play is not a very big horse, and like many such horses he may well be best when fresh. His trainer also says he is best with a bit of cut in the ground. So far the horse has won four of the five times he's run two and a half miles or more. His sole loss came on ground that was probably too quick for him in the Feltham Novice's Chase.

I see State Of Play as a very interesting proposition for more big handicap chases next term. And I wouldn't rule out the chances of him developing into a candidate for the King George or the Gold Cup.

 

REFINEMENT IMPROVES OVER LONGER TRIP

REFINEMENT (40) was a seriously fast bumper horse and has been running steadily faster over hurdles as she's been stepped up in trip. She earned the biggest speed rating I've ever given her over timber when winning a valuable Listed hurdle over thee miles at Aintree.

Refinement's only loss in her last eight starts came when she was a staying on third in the recent Sun Alliance Hurdle at Cheltenham. Over this longer trip she ran a good deal better and now looks like a decent candidate for the World Hurdle next season. I'd be wary of betting anything against her over three miles plus.

 

TWO MILES TOO SHORT FOR ASIAN MAZE

ASIAN MAZE (40) won the Aintree Hurdle by no less than 17 lengths from HARDY EUSTACE (33). But I wouldn't go running away with the idea that this means she's some sort of superhorse. It's now looking likely that the reason Hardy Eustace has been steered away from tight tracks since his flop at Aintree back in 2003 is that he's much better on more galloping courses. Apart from him, this was not a strong field.

I'd bet on Hardy Eustace bouncing back to his best at Punchestown. And I'd bet against Asian Maze if her connections really do go through with the idea of running her over two miles next season as is apparently planned. She's lost all nine times she's run over less than two and a quarter miles and won eight out of ten at that distance or longer.

 

HOLY JOE SHOULD WIN SOON

HEVER ROAD (36) showed improved form to take a good class 3 handicap chase at Exeter. He's relatively lightly raced, and this was the first time he'd run three miles or more over fences following a recent run. I'd bet on him winning again soon.

Runner-up HOLY JOE (36) looks an even better prospect, providing he can be found some soft ground. According to my going allowances Holy Joe raced on genuinely soft or heavy ground at long distances five times in France (two and a half miles plus over hurdles or three miles plus over fences). He won two of these five times. In two of his three defeats he finished second in valuable Grade 3 chases. And in the other loss he got to within six lengths of the winner in another hot Grade 3 handicap chase.

In that last big handicap chase I mentioned Holy Joe had to carry top weight but finished only four lengths behind Innox. Innox is currently rated much higher than Holy Joe on official ratings in Britain. So if Holy Joe runs on soft ground soon I wouldn't oppose him.

 

MY WAY DE SOLZEN NEEDS TO BE FRESH

Mighty Man (40) ran a very fast time to run third to My Way De Solzen in the World Hurdle. He actually ran a bit slower by my estimates when gaining his revenge on the winner at Aintree. His win was, I strongly suspect, due to his rival being past his best rather than any improvement on his part.

MY WAY DE SOLZEN (38) looks to be best when he's fresh. His record is very smart on his first two runs off a break of two months or so and then with a rest of five weeks plus thereafter. But so far, whenever he's not been kept fresh in this way he's run below form.

My speed ratings say that when he's fresh My Way De Solzen is very fast indeed.

 

HAIL THE CHIEF NO BACK NUMBER

HAIL THE CHIEF (38) is best known for winning a whole string of AW races and then the valuable Hawthorne Gold Cup on dirt in America. But the old boy is no back number according to my speed ratings. He once more ran a pattern class time to take a Leicester handicap over a mile from a decent field.

It seems rather significant that Hail The Chief has won the last three times he's run on a straight turf course at seven furlongs or a mile with cut in the ground. If he meets these circumstances next time out I'd bet on him winning again.

 

TAMAGIN IS FAST

A strange trend has emerged in Britain over the last decade. More and more three year olds have been running fast times in handicaps during the Spring. Ten years ago I was awarding far more big speed ratings to three year old runners in pattern races before June. The fast times run by handicappers have now increased to the point where they earn big speed ratings more often than in Listed and Group company this early in the season.

The trend continued when TAMAGIN (36) beat a red hot little field over a mile in a handicap on the Polytrack at Lingfield.

Tamagin is clearly not suited to the tight turns of Wolverhampton. But he's been doing very well indeed since stepping up to longer trips at Lingfield. The downside is that he's already had eight runs this year and will surely need a break soon. Nonetheless I'd be wary of opposing him next time unless he cuts back to a sprint trip or runs on a really tight track like Wolverhampton. He's a pattern class horse according to my speed ratings yet remains eligible for low grade handicaps.

KALANKARI (36) ran a big race to run Tamagin to a neck. He'd won pretty well on his 2006 debut previously and has clearly improved from two to three. I'd be surprised to see him beat next time.

GO FIGURE (34) looked a progressive horse when winning over seven furlongs on his previous start and confirmed that impression by running faster to take third here. He was unlucky to come up against two such smart rivals in an ordinary race and will surely win again soon.

 

FORTUNATE ISLE CAN WIN A BIG HANDICAP

FORTUNATE ISLE (37) ran a fast time to take an unusually valuable 0-95 handicap at Pontefract by almost three lengths. He's only made it to the races three times due to training setbacks, but his form certainly doesn't read like that of a 0-95 handicapper. He was second on his racecourse debut to subsequent Group 3 winner Rob Roy despite being backward. Then he won a good maiden from Bahar Shumaal who went on to finish fifth in the Irish Derby a couple of runs later. And now this.

My ratings say that Fortunate Isle is capable of wining at least a Listed race. But his handicap mark makes him eligible for ordinary handicaps. With so much money available for the big handicaps these days it would make sense for his connections to exploit the handicapping blooper and delay running Fortunate Isle in pattern company for a bit. I see him as a prime candidate for a big handicap over the next month or two.

 

MR LAMBROS IS GROUP CLASS

MR LAMBROS (40) earned a Group class speed rating for the second time in a row when bolting up in a conditions race at Lingfield. His jockey said earlier that "when he gets his way in front he's very hard to get by". That certainly proved to be the case here. And it says a lot for the talent of SOMETHING that Terry Mills' charge was able to go past him last time.

If he were mine I'd be targeting Listed and Group races with Mr Lambros over his specialist trip of seven furlongs. In big handicaps he's always going to be in danger of getting taken on for the lead and made to go too fast early for his own good.

 

 

DON'T DILI DALI LIVES UP TO HER NAME

I reckon there's a widespread prejudice against All Weather winners. This has never made any sense to me, especially since the advent of Polytrack which suits turf horses perfectly. But the prejudice should ensure that DON'T DILI DALI (37) starts at decent odds when she steps up in class following her win in the Listed Masaka Stakes on Kempton's new Polytrack.

In 2004 and 2005 no 1,000 Guineas Trial worked out better than the Masaka Stakes. The winners both placed in the Classic while all the other 1,000 Guineas Trials winners ran unplaced. Don't Dili Dali ran as fast as either of those Masaka winners according to my speed ratings. It's just a pity she isn't entered in the Newmarket Classic. She is in the Irish 1,000 Guineas though, and her trainer thinks she'll have a great chance in the Italian Oaks after that. My numbers say he's right.

I had thought that SONG OF SILENCE (35) would win the race as she was the fastest runner on my speed ratings. She certainly looked like winning with 100 yards to run (she was ten to one on in running on Betfair at that point). And it says a lot for the tremendous finishing burst produced by Don't Dili Dali that she ended up getting beat by two lengths. Song Of Silence should be able to win a Listed race herself on this showing. And her run certainly franks the form of ROYAL RESERVATION (36) who I should have written up after he'd beaten Song Of Silence and that other very smart AW filly Fusili at Lingfield.

 

BORDER MUSIC IS GROUP CLASS

There are a ludicrous number of high class sprinters in Britain, so it's tough to make money following them except when they race abroad. Nonetheless I'm compelled to mention BORDER MUSIC (40) who earned a Group 2 class speed rating from me when winning a hot six furlong conditions race on the Polytrack at Kempton.

Border Music's trainer, Andrew Balding, apparently believes his charge is best around a turn. But my ratings show he ran almost as fast when going under narrowly up the straight at Newmarket last September. So my money is on fast ground being his prime requirement. If I'm right then Border Music has a great chance of landing a big sprint handicap on turf soon as his turf mark is much lower than his AW one.

PRESTO SHINKO (40) was trying for five wins in a row and only just went under. His trainer predicted last year that he'd be a Group 1 sprinter in 2006. All Presto Shinko has to do is improve by a length or so to make the prediction come true. Certainly he should win a Group sprint in one of his next few runs.

 

 

YOUNG MICK IS STILL VERY WELL HANDICAPPED

YOUNG MICK (38) ran a Group 3 time to sprint away with a decent handicap at Yarmouth. If he hadn't lost in photos when twice running over trips on the short side for him this would have been his eighth win in a row.

The objective now is apparently the Roseberry handicap at Kempton, and he belongs in that sort of race according to my speed ratings. Actually I'd have preferred his original target, the Ebor, as the Roseberry is over a mere ten furlongs and his two biggest speed ratings have been earned over 11.5f and 12f.

The downside about Young Mick is that he's now packed ten runs into three months. No horse can hold its form much longer than this over middle distances if its raced that often. However Young Mick did so when running second in fast time on his next outing a few days later. So I'd be wary of saying he'll run below this level any time soon.

 

COUNTRY PURSUIT SHOULD BE FOLLOWED

YOUNG MICK (37) has been winning everything in sight recently. But COUNTRY PURSUIT (38) beat him fair and square in pattern class time at Lingfield last Saturday.

Country Pursuit seems to have improved markedly from three to four and should be capable of winning much better races than this. He's still very well handicapped, so I imagine he'll not be trying pattern company, as he did last year, until he's won a few more times. I wouldn't care to oppose him till he does.

 

RED EVIE CAN WIN AGAIN

RED EVIE (35) won a seven furlong maiden at Yarmouth in unusually fast time for a three year old filly this early in the season. It's a pity she isn't racing in America as she'd be able to run in a whole slew of stakes races at short trips restricted to her age and sex. In Britain she's almost certainly going to have to run in handicaps, and British three year old handicaps are red hot affairs in the Spring. Nonetheless she ran quick enough here to win a good 3YO handicap and I'd bet on her doing so next time.