RED ROCKS GETS THE STRONG PACE HE NEEDS

RED ROCKS (39) has been made to look bad on several occasions in slow run races. But, thanks to Mountain High (35) he got the strong pace he needs when taking the Gordon Richards Stakes at Sandown.

So far Red Rocks has run in four strongly run races at ten furlongs or more by my estimates. He won three of these four times and was a good second to the brilliant Rail Link in his only loss. He's lost all eight times he's run less than ten furlongs or encountered a slow early pace.

In recent years the big twelve furlong races have mostly been run at a slow pace. Even the Arc and the King George featured an early dawdle last year. This being so I'd be tempted to focus on the big ten furlong races rather than those over longer trips with Red Rocks. Races like the Eclipse and the Irish Champion Stakes still tend to be run at a strong gallop and that clearly suits Red Rocks.

If he were mine the race I'd be targeting with Red Rocks this year would be the Eclipse. Even if it were run at a moderate gallop he'd still have Sandown's steep uphill finish to pull him back into it.

As for the Breeders' Cup Turf, well I'm dubious about Red Rocks pulling off the double. That race is only strongly run about one year in ten and it's unlikely to pan out that way for Red Rocks two years in a row.

Red Rocks has run faster than this and is clearly going to be a player in many of the big middle distances races once more this year. But his chances are always going to depend on whether or not he gets a strong pace.

JEREMY IMPROVES AT A MILE

Statistically it was impossible for JEREMY (40) to win the Group 2 Betfred Mile at Sandown. No horse aged four or more had won a British Group race over a mile in the previous dozen years without having at least placed over the distance or longer. Indeed 68 of the 69 older winners of such races had previously placed in pattern company over a mile or more.

Nonetheless Jeremy won what turned out to be a very strongly run race in good style and fast time.

When a horse does something unusual like this, and does it in fast time, it pays to sit up and take notice. In this instance I would not be at all surprised to see Jeremy go on to win Group 1 races at a mile. After all, the mile is normally one of the weaker divisions. Most years a horse that only runs times that would win a Group 2 sprint or middle distance race can take a Group 1 prize.

The next obvious target for Jeremy is the Lockinge Stakes, and I see no reason why he shouldn't go for it as he'd have a serious chance on what he achieved here.

Runner-up BAHIA BREEZE (39) is a seriously good mare on tracks with a steep uphill finish and proved it again here. Unfortunately there aren't many races for her on really stiff tracks, not even against colts. So her best shot of another pattern win will probably come in the Listed Pipalong Stakes at Pontefract which she won in June last year.

RAINCOAT LOOKS GOOD FOR CHESTER VASE

You don't often see a race where the winner is obvious after they've gone a furlong. But that was the case in the Blue Riband Trial at Epsom won by RAINCOAT (37). Dubai Twilight was nudged along to set a pretty strong pace which had all his rivals on the stretch from the start except Raincoat who was always cruising.

Raincoat had a bit of trouble finding a run with two furlongs to go but he showed maturity in not backing off when his jockey forced him through a pretty much non-existent gap. After that it was plain sailing. Raincoat received only mild encouragement but soon stretched clear to win by a good margin and passed the post full of running.

Looking at the way this long striding colt won I would say that Raincoat might well have difficulty in future showing his best form over ten furlongs unless the pace was really strong. I'd expect a bit of improvement from him over a mile and a half. This being so I'd be surprised if his connections put him in the Dante rather than one of the mile and a half Derby Trials next time. They talked about the Dante and the Chester Vase. The latter race sounds about right because Raincoat will enter it as one of the fastest horses on my speed ratings.

If you want something to worry about with Raincoat it is that he had to miss the end of last season as he was so weak and still looks rather immature now. It could well be he needs a bit more time to grow and is a St Leger rather than a Derby prospect. In any event he's certainly very promising.

DESERT DEW IS PATTERN CLASS

DESERT DEW (37) won the Esher Cup in pattern class time and is clearly a useful three year old. As a brother to the very smart middle distance runner Indian Creek he is bred to improve over longer than the mile he tried here. The way he was staying on at the end endorses this idea. So he does look rather an interesting candidate for the Dee Stakes at Chester, a race that his trainer, Barry Hills, has farmed over the years.

STRINGSOFMYHEART AND FORCE GROUP MUST BE FOLLOWED

A few times a season speed ratings will tell you something truly extraordinary, something nothing else will tell you. This looks to be the case wit the 0-70 twelve furlong 3YO handicap at Pontefract last week won by STRINGSOFMYHEART (37) from FORCE GROUP (37).

If you look at the bare form of these horses it amounts to very little. But the clock shows that they both made huge improvement to run pattern class times.

For Stringsofmyheart, the race represented her first run beyond a sprint trip on grass and for Force Group his first run beyond a sprint trip on any surface. So there seems to be a ready explanation for their improved from.

The pair were separated by just half a length at the finish and they did something that only smart horses can do; they joined battle almost two furlongs from the finish and went at it hammer and tongs all the way to the line while pulling nine lengths clear of the rest.

Stringsofmyheart showed tremendous stamina to make all the running at a good pace and keep on strongly. I can see here developing into a candidate for the Park Hill Stakes over the Leger trip in the Autumn. Watching her run it was easy to see why she wouldn't have been suited to the slow early pace of Polytrack races. She clearly needs more of a test of stamina.

Force Group came from behind and looked all the winner when he came through to head Stringsofmyheart. But he seemed to run a bit green to my eye, or perhaps he was rolling around a bit on ground that was a little fast for him (he does show a bit of knee action and may prefer it softer). He has the build of a hurdler and I wouldn't mind having a few pennies on him for next year's Triumph Hurdle at big odds. Right now though he looks a cinch to rack up a string of handicap wins at this sort of trip before stepping up to pattern company.

REGIME WINS A WEAK CLASSIC TRIAL

The Classic trial at Sandown is sometimes a good race, sometimes a moderate one. This year's renewal looks set to fall into the moderate category if the clock is any guide. The winner Regime (33) ran a very slow time for the class.

You could argue that the slow time was a product of the slow pace. But despite this the horses all looked to be tiring in the closing stages. This is confirmed by the sectional times of the race. I timed the horses with a stopwatch from the false rail entering the straight and they ran about a second slower from this point to the finish than they did in the Betfred Mile where the early pace was strong. If they were truly Group 1 horses they should have run a good deal faster.

Maybe something will emerge out of this race to prove me wrong. Right now though I just can't consider Regime or anything else from this race as a legitimate Derby contender.

DHEHDAAH SHOULD GO FOR CESAREWITCH

DHEHDAAH (37) earned a pattern class speed rating from me for the third time since June last year when winning an ordinary staying handicap on Kempton's Polytrack. He's now finished in the first two all four times he's run a mile and three quarters or more on the flat.

Dhehdaah is still going to be eligible for races well below his true class following this run so I reckon he's worth following now that he's going the right sort of distance. In fact he's fast enough to rank as a serious Cesarewitch candidate even at this early stage of the season.

Runner up NEWNHAM (36) is clearly pretty useful at two miles and should soon be franking this form on Polytrack or fast turf.

GLENBUCK A SMART SPRINTER

It wasn't just the tailwind that enabled GLENBUCK (39) to lower the seven furlong course record at Yarmouth. He is a smart performer over the specialist distance.

I confess that I just can't fathom why Glenbuck occasionally runs a clunker even when running over his favourite distance. All I can say is that he's way better than the class 4 tag of the contest.

I find it interesting that Glenbuck's big target is the Ayr Gold Cup. That may well be a shrewd move as the fierce pace that race generates makes it a contest that a seven furlong performer can win. Wokingham winners are often seven furlong performers too, so I'd be interested to see Glenbuck shoot for that race too.

NEW SEEKER STILL SMART WHEN FRESH

NEW SEEKER (39) has always been a smart horse when fresh. But he'd never won on his seasonal debut until he took a Listed race at Leicester in fast time.

New Seeker has won seven of the last eleven times he's come into a race off a break of five weeks or more but lost the last thirteen times he's been brought back more quickly.

He's run fast enough to win a Group race several times and it's surprising he hasn't done so yet. If he's kept fresh he ought to put that right this term.

NORTHERN FLING IS A USEFUL SPRINTER

I don't like mentioning sprinters as there are so many fast ones in Britain. In addition their form is horribly dependant on a good draw and luck in running. However I do need to make note of NORTHERN FLING (38), a three year old who won a minor six furlong handicap at Ripon in a time that suggests he'll be a player in much bigger races later this season.

Trainer Dandy Nicholls certainly knows how to train and place horses to win big sprint handicaps and he'll no doubt be giving it a shot with this smart young horse before long.

DEMPSEY A CHAMPION ON RIGHT-HANDED TRACKS WHEN FRESH

DEMPSEY (42) has long been one of the top two mile chasers. And, though he's run some smart races on left-handed courses, it's clear he is best on right-handed tracks.

Like most top class two mile chasers, Dempsey needs to be fresh to produce his very best form. When he is fresh and runs right-handed he is well nigh unstoppable. He's won seven of his last eight completed starts on right-handed tracks when he's had a break of six weeks or more since his last completed run. His sole loss was a close second to Limerick Boy who is a freakishly fast horse when right.

I wouldn't pay too much attention to the fact that Dempsey lowered Sandown's course record here. The course is reconfigured at this meeting to accommodate the running of jump and flat races on the same card. However it's clear from lines of form and the past times of jump races at this particular meeting that Dempsey does merit the big speed rating I've given him.

Dempsey's trainer suggested after the race that they might give the horse one more shot at going a longer distance. I think that would be a mistake. The fact that he needs to be fresh suggests strongly to me that he is an out and out two mile specialists. It's usually only the two milers which don't need to be rested between their runs that prove effective at longer trips.

If he were mine I would not run Dempsey at all between now and the Tingle Creek in December. I'd take him to that race fresh and give him the chance to take the Grade 1 that he deserves.

HOO LA BALOO (39), another right-hand specialist, ran right up to his best. I think he appreciated the cut back to two miles. My gut feel is that he would also appreciate being allowed to bowl along in front like he used to. Some horses have a natural running style and they tend to run below form when you attempt to change it. Now that he's back at two miles there's surely no longer a reason to try and conserve Hoo La Baloo's stamina.

DIAMOND TYCOON RUNS THE BEST GUINEAS TRIAL

You will rarely see a performance in a maiden as good as the one put up by DIAMOND TYCOON (39) to win over a mile at Newbury. He clocked the second fastest time over the course in the last dozen years and won full of running.

Unlike the winners of the recognized 2000 Guineas Trials in Britain this year, there is no question that Diamond Tycoon is an out and out miler. There's also no question that he is a Group 1 horse. That's clear from my speed ratings.

The big problem that Diamond Tycoon faces in the Guineas is lack of experience. He only had one losing run as a juvenile and this supremely easy win, where he made all and was always cruising, will have taught him very little. He never had to avoid any traffic. No rival ever pressed him. And he won so easily his jockey was able to steal a look over his shoulder in the closing stages. Basically it was little more than a public exercise gallop.

In my experience, however brilliant a horse may be, they invariably lose the first time they're thrown in against genuinely top class rivals. The increased competition is a shock to their system that they react to it by showing greenness in some form which costs them the race. And it would be hard to think of a horse more likely to suffer from this problem than Diamond Tycoon. He's the very opposite of battle-hardened.

In this regard I would direct your attention to the fact that no 2000 Guineas winner since Niksar way back in 1965 has won the Classic without having previously scored as a juvenile. That's a powerful statistic which Diamond Tycoon is trying to beat.

American and Australian punters would say that Diamond Tycoon lacks the 'seasoning' to win the Guineas. Almost certainly that is true. But after the Guineas, he should be some horse and will surely be taking a Group 1 at some point.

ADAGIO LOOKS INTERESTING FOR THE ECLIPSE STAKES

ADAGIO (39) earned the biggest speed rating I've given a three year old colt so far this season when taking the Craven Stakes. He was undoubtedly impressive. But I doubt that he'll prove competitive in the 2000 Guineas. Teofilo ran faster as a two year old than Adagio did here according to my speed ratings. So it's clearly going to require some improvement on Adagio's part to win at Group 1 level, and I don't think it will be forthcoming till he steps up to ten furlongs.

Adagio's sire was best at ten furlongs according to my ratings. His dam won over two miles and has produced nothing but middle distance runners.

Adagio certainly has the build of a ten furlong horse and ran like one here - lacking the pace to get himself out of traffic problems at this short a trip and finishing much more strongly than any of his rivals.

If a horse as inexperienced as Adagio is really is a true miler then it will normally race keenly or pull for its head if held up in the early stages. Democratic Deficit and Hurricane Alan did this when winning the Craven and they subsequently proved to be best at a mile. But look at the names of the horses which came from behind to win the Craven without pulling for their heads early on in recent years: Compton Admiral, Xaar, Desert Story, Beauchamp King, Alnasr Alwasheek and Marju. Beauchamp King never won in pattern company again, but the other five all produced their best subsequent performances over ten furlongs or more. Okay Marju did win the St James' Palace Stakes over a mile, but, like the other five horses, he ran in the 2000 Guineas and failed to reach the first three.

I don't think Adagio will be effective over a mile in the Guineas and predict he'll run unplaced, just as those other six horses did. But I also suspect that the mile and a half of the Derby will prove a little too far for him as well. He looks like an out and out ten furlong specialist to me. This being so I'm thinking that, like Compton Admiral, Adagio could well win the Eclipse Stakes after running unplaced in the first two colts' Classics.

METAPHORIC AND REGAL FLUSH ARE GROUP CLASS

METAPHORIC (38) and REGAL FLUSH (38) fought out the finish of a remarkably good three year old ten furlong handicap at Newmarket. The race often goes to a Group class horse and it certainly did this year.

I would be wary of opposing either Metaphoric or Regal Flush in the Derby Trials they both seem sure to contest on their next starts. Which of them will prove best is hard to say at this stage, but I strongly suspect that the fourth placed PLAYERS PLEASE (35) will prove at least as good as them.

Players Please ran just as fast as the winner did here when winning his maiden on the Polytrack. But in this race he looked decidedly uneasy on the fast ground. He held his head to his left throughout the race and showed an inclination to shift ground that way. Then, when the race began in earnest and he was asked to pick up he showed even more knee action than he had on the way down and was inclined to shift in the other direction. Despite hanging he actually moved better than anything and looked the winner two furlongs out.

Clearly Players Please needs cut in the ground on turf to produce his best. He also looked to be crying out for a mile and a half.

The logical targets for Players Please would be the Chester Vase or the Lingfield Derby Trial. If he got yielding or softer ground in either of those races I'd fancy his chances. I realize he still qualifies for handicaps but his connections will surely want to see if they've got a Derby horse on their hands which I think they have.

PHOENIX TOWER SHOULD GO FOR ST JAMES' PALACE STAKES

PHOENIX TOWER (38) looked awfully impressive when quickening away from a decent field to win a seven furlong handicap at Newbury. The remarkable thing about this is that he has the build and pedigree of a miler and only got going in the last furlong. Who knows what he'll be capable of when stepped up to the right distance.

This was one of the best performances we've seen from a three year old so far this season. So I think the talk of him running in the Britannia Handicap or the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot is off the mark. I reckon Phoenix Tower belongs in the St James' Palace Stakes because he could very well be a Group 1 horse.

DON'T KNOCK PRIME DEFENDER

The general consensus of opinion seems to be that PRIME DEFENDER (38) was a somewhat lucky winner of a sub-par Free Handicap. My speed ratings and my read of the race suggest a different interpretation.

Watch the video of the race and it's hard not to be struck by how much bigger and more mature Prime Defender is than his rivals. Throughout the race he's moving powerfully with a very long, daisy-cutting stride. It seems to be simply a matter of when his jockey decides to press the button which he duly does over a furlong out. Prime Defender then sweeps into the lead but looks to run rather green to me, idling in front, which is the natural instinct of horses who don't like to be separated from the herd.

I think Prime Defender was actually most impressive here to hold on from such a strong finishing rival as TOBOSA (38). I also think trainer Barry Hills is right to suggest that seven furlongs is his optimum distance.

My gut feel is that Prime Defender is a Group 1 horse over what I suspect is going to prove his specialist distance of seven furlongs. His stride pattern screams out that he's always going to need fast ground so the logical thing to do is exactly what Hills talked about after this race. Namely to shoot for the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot over seven furlongs. If he were mine though I'd want to get another run or two into him beforehand to iron the greenness out of him. So I think it will be a good move to shoot for the 2000 Guineas as a loss there may well teach Prime Defender more than an easy win over seven furlongs in a lesser race.

Tobosa's physique, his pedigree and the way he stormed home here all suggest strongly that he is crying out for the step up to a mile. I suspect that he'll prove competitive in Group 1 races over that distance.

FORGET ABOUT MAJOR CADEAUX

I've been playing the video of the Greenham over and over, and my firm conclusion is that the winner, Major Cadeaux (33), hasn't got a prayer of staying the mile of the Guineas. I'm not even sure that he truly gets seven furlongs.

When I watched the race the first time the thought popped into my head 'gosh he's built like a sprinter'. When I watched it again I thought 'gosh he sure runs like a sprinter too'.

Indeed, the few decent horses sired by Cadeaux Genereaux that have stayed more than seven furlongs all had massively more stamina on their dam's side than Major Cadeaux has.

In fact Major Cadeaux's dam failed to stay when she was stepped up to seven furlongs. Okay his grand-dam has produced a couple of horses that have won beyond sprint trips - but that was in America on turf, and in America they go a crawl in the early stages on turf which means horses can 'stay' all sorts of distances that they'd never last in Europe. It's a similar story in Australia where for example Starcraft won the Australian Derby over 12 furlongs but proved to be a miler in Europe. Besides, do you really want to start trawling as far back as the grand-dam in a pedigree to try and dredge up some questionable evidence of stamina?

Major Cadeaux's race was run about two and a half seconds slower to halfway than the 3YO handicap won Phoenix Tower the day before, this despite the ground being a bit quicker. Yet Major Cadeaux ended up running three tenths of a second slower than Phoenix Tower for the full trip. That's bad. If he was a genuine stayer he should have really blasted the last couple of furlongs and run about 0.7 of a second faster than Phoenix Tower.

If Dutch Art (29) was ever going to win beyond six furlongs it would have been in this slow run race. But he got hammered nearly four lengths by a winner that has yet to run a pattern class time according to my ratings.

You don't often see a horse with a neck as short as Dutch Art's win beyond sprint trips. A horse with a physique like his is designed for five and six furlongs. Clearly he's inherited a lot of the speed from the dam's side of his family - almost every member of which was a five or six furlong horse.

Okay Dutch Art wasn't stopping at the finish. But that's hardly surprising seeing how slow they went early.

Give his physique, his pedigree and his free-running style, I will continue to oppose Dutch Art over seven furlongs and find it hard to believe he will ever win over a mile.

As I see it, you can forget about Major Cadeaux, Dutch Art and the rest. One way or another, the opposition to Teofilo in the 2000 Guineas has basically evaporated. I am utterly amazed that the bookies have pushed him out to 5-2. He was the fastest Champion year old we've seen in years according to my ratings. His rivals face a near insurmountable task.

SERENGETI CAN WIN A BIG HANDICAP

SERENGETI (38) ran a humongously fast time to take a ten furlong handicap on Lingfield's Polytrack. The question now is will trainer Mark Johnston step him up to pattern company where he belongs or will he shoot for a big handicap? I suspect he's going to do both in time. As I see it, a horse that can run this fast is bound to end up in Group races. But his handicap mark is still going to be remarkably low even after he gets a penalty for this win. So I see Johnston steering this very smart three year old towards a couple of big handicaps before stepping him up to something like the Gordon Stakes or the Great Voltigeur in the Autumn.

I would expect those that got closest to Serengeti here to frank this form soon. That means you should keep an eye out for MAFEKING (36), RESPLENDENT ACE (36) and WARM EMBRACES (36).

ASSET A CANDIDATE FOR SPRINT CHAMPION

A horse doesn't break a course record at Newmarket without being top class. And that's exactly what ASSET (42) is according to my speed ratings. He lowered the six furlong record at headquarters to take a good renewal of the Abernant Stakes.

Clearly Asset is a candidate for sprint champion on this run. He's now won both times that he's gone less than seven furlongs on the fast ground he needs.

Oddly enough, if he were mine, the big target I'd be looking at for Asset would be the Breeders' Cup Mile at the end of the season. European horses often have trouble coping with the slow early pace and sprint finish of that race. But Last Tycoon showed that a European Champion Sprinter has the speed for it. And I'm encouraged to think Asset can emulate him by the fact he won a good Listed race over a mile on Polytrack from subsequent German Guineas winner Royal Power. Polytrack forces jockeys to set the kind of slow early pace that is the norm in America and that win shows Asset can use his speed to win well in a sprint finish over a mile.

MANDURO IS HARD TO PLACE

MANDURO (40) is one of the fastest horses in Europe over 8-10 furlongs and proved it with a runaway win in course record time in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes. But he needs fast ground and a fast pace to produce his very best and that combination is not easy to come by in France.

Manduro has won six of the eight times he's run below Group 1 class. He's placed all six times he's run at the top level without winning. Given his need for a strong pace I suspect that he'll finally gain the Group 1 win he deserves outside of France.

SAKHEE'S SECRET NEEDS TO STEP UP TO SEVEN FURLONGS

SAKHEE'S SECRET (38) earned the joint biggest speed rating I've given a three year old in Britain or Ireland this season when blasting home by five lengths at Newmarket. Unfortunately he did so in a six furlong sprint, and that gives him a big problem.

I've never quite been able to figure out why, but the fact is Britain has several times as many Group class sprinters as the rest of Europe put together. There are so many of them that ordinary sprint handicaps are run in a time that would win Group races in Ireland and France. Indeed, British trainers exploit this fact by routinely shipping sprinters to France and Britain where they win an amazingly high percentage of the time.

This makes things extremely tough for a three year old sprinter in Britain that is Group class like Sakhee's Secret. They invariably just aren't fast enough to beat the extremely fast older horses that run in British sprints at Group level. And there are no five or six furlong Group races in Britain that are restricted to three year olds.

The solution for Sakhee's Secret is surely to step him up to seven furlongs. He's certainly bred for the distance as his sire and dam both scored over longer.

The thing is Sakhee's Secret needs time between his runs according to his trainer. Normally that means at least five weeks and usually six. So we may not be seeing the horse out again any time soon. When we do though, whether he goes six furlongs or seven, if it's against his own age group I'd be wary of opposing him in any race.

KALANKARI CAN BOUNCE BACK

I thought that KALANKARI (38) was a good thing to win a five runner Conditions race at Warwick. He'd twice earned Group class speed ratings from me and was running in what appeared to be his ideal circumstances.

Kalankari, like many horses that like to set or press the pace, seems to prefer running in smaller fields as this means he's not forced to go too fast by an abundance of rivals in the early stages. It also looks like he's best fresh as all his wins have come off a break of four weeks or more.

Before Kalankari ran at Warwick he had come into a race with 12 runners or less off a break of four weeks or more three times - and he'd won all three times. He looked like making it four out of four at Warwick but went lame in the closing stages and was beaten a short head by old-timer KEW GREEN (38).

I wouldn't be too despondent about Kalankari's prospects of bouncing back from this injury. A veterinary survey carried out a few years ago showed that two thirds of all racehorses go severely lame in the course of a typical year. Sadly, throughbreds these days are inherently unsound. Most of them though can be nursed back to health and I dare say Kalankari can be. And if he returns in a race with a dozen runners or less watch out. He's fast enough to win in Group company in such circumstances.

The winner, Kew Green, recovered from a far worse physical problem, winning off a two year break following major back surgery. But, like a lot of horses with back problems, he does seem to need a rest between his runs. Five of his six wins since his comeback have been off a break longer than 30 days. It also seems that he's not able to cope with soft going. But give him a rest and a a relatively fast surface and Kew Green could yet win in Group company.

KING OF ARGOS SHOULD WIN AGAIN

I was very interested in the chances of KING OF ARGOS (36) in a minor handicap at Windsor because I had twice awarded him a Listed class speed rating in recent outings. Sure enough he romped home and again earned a Listed class speed rating from me.

Although he's done well on the AW, it seems to me that King Of Argos is likely to do better on turf than he has on Polytrack as he looks to be unsuited to the slow early pace that Polytrack races are normally run at and also the tight courses they take place on. He's pulled hard, gone wide and hung, things he hasn't done on grass.

On his last AW start in a very slow run Polytrack race King Of Argos attempted to come from behind, a very difficult thing to pull off in a slow run race as the leaders have saved enough energy to sprint to the line.

On his start before that King Of Argos went under in a photo finish after hanging in very fast time. And on his previous run he finished a good second to Cusoon, one of the top AW performers, again in pattern class time.

So far King Of Argos has run five times following a recent outing. He's won or finished second to a smart rival every one of those five times. This being so I doubt that he's stopped winning yet.

WISE DENNIS A USEFUL 7F HORSE ON SLOW GROUND

The Fibresand surface at Southwell is deep and slow. So it's not surprising that many horses which need soft ground on turf act on it . WISE DENNIS (37) proved to be such a horse when winning a class 2 handicap over seven furlongs at Southwell in Listed class time.

Wise Dennis has in fact already won in Listed company. He did this the only time he's encountered soft ground over seven furlongs on turf. Clearly he's a useful performer over his specialist distance when the ground is slow -whether it's Fibresand or soft turf.

Quite when Wise Dennis will next find his favoured conditions is hard to say. But when he does I'd be very interested in his chances.

NYCTEOS IMPROVES

NYCTEOS (39) ran a good deal faster than he has before to take a Grade 2 chase at Cheltenham. His trainer Paul Nicholls says that the 23 runner Racing Post Plate was just too competitive for him. It's also interesting to note that Nycteos encountered traffic problems in a 12 runner race at Newbury before that. This being so I'm inclined to believe that, like a lot of French breds, Nycteos is better in smaller fields over fences like the one he met here.

It's also interesting that all of the wins scored by Nycteos to date have come at Chepstow and Cheltenham, two of the most undulating courses in Britain. In fact, if you chuck out that run in a huge field over fences at the Festival you'll find that Nycteos has won four of his other five runs on undulating tracks.

In reality though it's very early to be making hard and fast judgments about such a lightly raced horse. It may well be that Nicholls is right to say the obvious target for Nycteos is the Becher Chase at the beginning of next season. After all he was doing pretty well till tipping up in a huge field in the Topham Trophy, and he certainly ran fast enough to be a serious contender for the Becher Chase here.

YES SIR, KING OF THE SPRING

A veterinary study carried out some years ago showed that the hormone levels of male horses drop dramatically in the darker months. This, I'm sure, is why some horses, even geldings, fail to run to their best during the Winter.

YES SIR (39) appears to be just such a horse. He has won the last eleven times he's run between late April and August but lost the last eleven times he's run outside of this period - running unplaced on ten of those occasions. His latest success came at Ayr where he set a strong pace to win Grade 2 Future Champion Novice Chase by a big margin.

Clearly Yes Sir is going to be a big player at the Punchestown Festival. He's one of the fastest novice chasers on my ratings.

RECORD BREAKER SHOULD BE FOLLOWED

RECORD BREAKER (36) ran a borderline pattern class time despite running green to take a Musselburgh maiden over nine furlongs. Seeing that he's bred for further, stayed on strongly and is trained by Mark Johnston it seems very likely he'll improve when stepped up to much longer than the nine furlongs he ran here.

Normally I'd say that a three year old this fast would be an interesting candidate for a Classic Trial. In this instance however it looks like Record Breaker will be awarded an official rating as low as 80 seeing that the second and third were rated 76 and 69 respectively. Mark Johnston is not someone who'd let an opportunity like this pass him by. There are several handicaps worth a whole lot more than a Classic Trial in which he'll be able to exploit Record Breaker's lenient mark.

In any event, whatever type of race record Breaker ends up in next he'll merit serious consideration.

CELESTIAL HALO COULD BE ANYTHING

CELESTIAL HALO (36) clocked a pattern class time to run away with a Newcastle maiden on his seasonal debut. He could be anything as he looked to win with a good deal in hand. Certainly he's worth a shot in a Derby Trial.

MIGHTY TOUGH TO BEAT IN SMALL FIELDS

MIGHTY MAN (40) is a horse that I've not quite understood before. But now it seems to me that his connections are probably right to say he prefers faster going. I also think that he is best in smaller fields as he has gotten into traffic trouble a couple of times in races with a dozen runners or more. On yielding or faster going in fields smaller than twelve, Mighty Man has now won five times out of six. His sole loss was a most unlucky second to The French Furze who stole the race from the front off a slow pace.

Mighty Man's latest success came in the Liverpool Hurdle where he beat many of the top staying hurdlers by a wide margin. He's run a bit faster than this before and I'd be wary of opposing him in future whenever he hits a smallish field and relatively fast ground.

I've been banging on for months about my theory that BLACK JACK KETCHUM (36) doesn't truly stay three miles. And he certainly seemed to run that way once more here. As his jockey, Tony Mc Coy, said “He was going to win going to the third-last but after the third-last he was dead." Trainer Jonjo O'Neill added. “Looking at it, he didn't get the trip, but he's got it before, so I don't see why he doesn't get it now."

As I've said before, quite a lot of horses manage to win over three miles against novices, but against the stronger opposition they face in open races, and the stronger pace, their lack of stamina is exposed.

If he were mine I'd now cut back Black Jack Ketchum to two and a half miles. At that distance my speed ratings say there are few, if any, hurdlers that could beat him.

I suspect that BLAZING BAILEY would not have threatened the winner had he not fallen. I say this because I'm now inclined to think is what I call a 'rest pattern' horse. That is he's good on his first two starts off a break of three months plus but needs a gap of at least five weeks between his completed starts thereafter to run well again. He's won five times out of eight at 14f plus when he's run to the rest pattern and run big races in all his three losses. But he's now been defeated all nine times that he hasn't been fresh.

KATCHIT NOT A CHAMPION HURDLE PROSPECT

Katchit (38) showed that he's undoubtedly the fastest juvenile hurdler we've seen this term by following up his Triumph win at Aintree. But my ratings show that he's a long way behind last season's freakishly smart juvenile Champion Detroit City. This being so, and seeing the dreadful record that horses his age have in the Champion Hurdle, I have to say that the 10-1 now being offered by the bookies against Katchit winning the big race next year is barking mad. I don't see how he could have any hope in that contest.

AZTEC WARRIOR IS A GOOD PROSPECT

AZTEC WARRIOR (38) won a decent novice chase in fast time at Fontwell. It's a bit early to say for sure what his preferences are, but I note with interest that he has run below form every single time he's run on a left-handed track or in anything bigger than a single figure field (I count Fontwell and Windsor as right-handed incidentally as the all important home turn at each track is right handed).

So far Aztec Warrior has run five times on right handed tracks in fields of nine or less. His only defeat in those five starts was a second place finish in a Grade 1.

For a horse with such good form Aztec Warrior has a remarkably low official handicap rating. No doubt his trainer will want to exploit this in a valuable handicap chase early next season.

When he returns the plan is to step Aztec Warrior up to three miles. Over that sort of distance I wouldn't be surprised if Aztec Warrior was able to cope with bigger fields as he'll have more time to manouver - which he may need seeing that he's such a big horse.

Runner-up WHICH POCKET (37) is even better handicapped than the winner. The jury is still out on whether this ex pointer truly stays three miles but he's certainly useful and would probably run up a sequence of wins if kept going in the off season.

MARSHALL HALL HASN'T STOPPED WINNING YET

BAMBI DE L'ORME (39) always seems to hit form in the Spring and did so again to take the red Rum Chase at Aintree. He's a useful two miler on fast ground at this time of year but I suspect that the runner-up MARSHALL HALL (38) has better prospects in the immediate future.

Marshall Hall is only six years of age and has an official rating that gives him a great shot of winning a valuable handicap chase like this. He's improved markedly since cut back to two miles and looks a big player whether he goes to Ayr or Punchestown next. It seems more likely to be Ayr as his jockey, Graham lee, says he goes to the left. Marshall Hall's Irish form seems to endorse Lee's concerns as he ran five times at shorter trips on right-handed Irish courses without showing anything like this sort of form.

DOES EXOTIC DANCER REALLY STAY?

An increasing proportion of the top three mile chases in Britain are being run at a slow pace nowadays. This has led to horses winning that would previously have been fading badly after they'd run two and a half miles in the old days. One such horse as I see it is Exotic Dancer (35). He looked awfully impressive winning the Betfair Bowl, just as he had taking the Cotswold Chase and when running second in the Gold Cup. But the clock says all three races were slow run. So I have strong doubts that this former two and a half mile specialist truly gets this longer trip. Certainly I will be opposing him with a great deal of confidence if he tries the 3m 5f of the Betfred Gold Cup.

The trend towards a slow pace in the big three mile British chases makes me concerned about the good natured rivalry between Britain and Ireland that has for so long been part of what makes the Winter game so appealing. Are we now entering an era when the old-fashioned national hunt store horses which largely represent Ireland will be shut out of Britain's top three mile chases by an unsuitably slow early pace? And will the ex flat-racers and French breds that make up a large slice of Britain's top three mile chasers be shut out of Ireland's top three mile chases by a lack of stamina. I hope not.

The out and out stayer MY WILL (31) certainly can't have been helped by the slow pace. But if he goes for the Betfred Gold Cup this admirably consistent horse looks to have a great chance of turning this form around and improving on his close third in the race last year.

Third-placed OUR VIC (27) can beat just about anything when he's fresh. But he'd had to be pulled up the only two times he's been returned to the races as quickly as he was here in the last few years. So this was actually quite an encouraging run. Previously I was anticipating deterioration from him next term. Now I'm thinking that he'll be a great bet on his seasonal debut.

STATE OF PLAY (25) ran as well as could be expected on the ground which was surely too fast for him. I say this because in my experience nobody knows a horse better than its trainer. This is especially true in regards to their going preferences. When a trainer repeatedly says a horse prefers a certain type of going you've just got to bet that they're right. So let's look at what trainer Evan Williams has said about State Of Play:

After he'd won at the Aintree Festival last year Williams said "he is a horse who needs to get his toe in". Following his win in the Hennessy he said "when the rain came down that made me more confident". He also told reporters after State Of Play's dreadful run at Sandown that "he found the ground too quick."

The going allowances I make for my speed ratings back up what Evan Williams says. They show that he's won the four times he's gone over fences on yielding or softer ground but that he's run unplaced all three times he's run on faster ground like that he encountered here.

TURPIN GREEN (19) is capable of running with the very best chasers according to my speed ratings but it seemed unlikely he would be at his best here. After the horse had lost at Aintree last year after running at Cheltenham his trainer, Nicky Richards, said "To be honest it has probably come a bit quick for him after Cheltenham". His jockey confirmed that view this time around, saying exactly the same thing.

It's worth bearing in mind that Turpin Green is still a very lightly raced horse and has only run in a handful of three mile chases. Next season his connections will know exactly how to place him and I strongly suspect they'll keep him fresh and be able to land at least one of the top chases.

HALLA SAN AN EBOR PROSPECT

HALLA SAN (37) hosed up an ordinary 1m 6f handicap at Catterick in a time that marks him out as a serious prospect for the Ebor. He's now won five of his last eight starts. One of his losses was excusable as he was found to be sick afterwards. And I'm happy to chuck out his other two recent defeats as well because my speed ratings show they came in very slow run races. Clearly Hall San has plenty of stamina and needs a strong pace to run to this best, at least over trips short of a mile and three quarters.

This was the longest trip Halla San has tried so far and it produced his biggest speed rating. Indeed he has improved every time he's been stepped up in distance, so it's possible he may do even better over two miles. Certainly he looks a horse to keep an eye on for a big staying handicap win sometime this term. But over a mile and a half or less he's always going to be vulnerable in slow run races.

MANDRAGOLA LOOKS INTERESTING FOR THE DEE STAKES

Every year around this time punters look for the horse that Barry Hills is going to try and win the Dee Stakes with. Right now I have got my eye on MANDRAGOLA (36) who won a 10f maiden on Lingfield's Polytrack in a time that just slithers into pattern class.

In fact, it looks like Mandragola is going to be awarded a handicap mark that will make him eligible for one of the handicaps at Chester's May meeting. So it could be he'll take that route. Either way this is a promising young horse who will probably stay longer and improve with experience judged by his what his assistant trainer said after the race. This being so I'd be surprised if he doesn't earn black type by the end of the season.

Runner-up NORMAN THE GREAT (36) showed big improvement on his first try at a middle distance to pull six lengths clear of the third. He ought to hose up in a maiden next time and should be capable of winning a decent handicap at least soon after that.

EXPENSIVE IS FAST WHEN THE GOING IS FAST

EXPENSIVE (38) bolted up in a mile Listed race on Kempton's Polytrack at Easter and is quick enough to win a Group race for fillies on my ratings. The caveat is that she seems to need a lightning fast surface - either Polytrack or turf that's good to firm or firmer. But for one photo finish loss in fast time at Sandown she would now have won the last four times she's gone a mile or less on such ground following a vaguely recent run.

Expensive now goes for another Listed race on Lingfield's Polytrack. It will take an unusually good horse for the class to stop her completing the double.

BOND CITY CAN TAKE A PATTERN RACE

Fire Up The Band (40) failed to reach the first three or earn a decent speed rating all last season. But he returned to his best to take a hot Conditions sprint at Nottingham in Group 2 class time.

Fire Up The Band was pretty consistent in 2005 and ended up finishing third in the Abbaye. Logically he should 'bounce' off this run if he runs within the next five or six weeks. And, seeing that he is now eight, I'm going to be wary about believing he'll reproduce this run until he's show that he can.

Runner-up BOND CITY (39) looks a better immediate prospect as long as he's steered away from handicaps. I say this because his record indicates he's best in smaller fields like the one he met here (all his wins have come in fields of 13 or less). For this reason I'd like to see him go for a Listed or Group race as such events attract smaller fields than handicaps. If he gets a suitably small field I'd see him as tough to beat in a Listed or Group 3 sprint.

ADOPTED HERO BOUNCES BACK TO HIS BEST

ADOPTED HERO (38) was a smart performer three years ago but for some reason failed to show his true form when switched to Howard Johnson's yard. However he bounced right back to his best when returned to Gary Moore to score at Haydock.

I don't know why Adopted Hero has returned to form. But he's as good as ever according to my ratings and must have a decent chance of following up this success in the Swinton Hurdle over the same course and distance. My read of his form is that he's at his best on good or faster ground and on a track without pronounced undulations. If he gets this combination of circumstances any time in the near future I'd be interested in his chances as this was a pattern class performance.

BANKNOTE TOUGH TO BEAT WHEN FRESH

One of the fastest performances in a handicap last season according to my speed ratings was the one put up by BANKNOTE (33) when he won at Haydock. I gave him a speed rating that day in between Group 2 and Group 3 class.

I wasn't surprised to read after that race that his connections were going to try and win a Listed or Group race with him. They surely waited till this season to do that because the horse is clearly best when fresh. Their target was the Doncaster Mile at Lingfield which he duly won.

Before his Lingfield win Banknote had come into a race around a turn off a break of five weeks or more eight times. He'd won six of those eight times. His two losses were very slow run races where he finished second to smart winners who got first run on him. His jockey made sure that wouldn't happen in this slow run race by making his own running.

Basically with decent racing luck Banknote would now have won all nine times he's run around a turn off a five week plus break.

Trainer Andrew Balding says Banknote has strengthened up this year. So it's just possible he won't need big gaps between his runs now. I wouldn't bet on that though. I'd wait until he's rested once more before betting him again. And then I'd expect him to be capable of winning in Group company.

VERY WISE AN ABOVE AVERAGE LINCOLN WINNER

In most seasons the Lincoln winner tends to disappear off the radar for the rest of the season. However this year's Lincoln winner VERY WISE (39) is above average judged by the time he clocked. This being so I'd expect to see him win something else decent before the year is out. He'd been showing good form against some of the best AW horses and proved here that he's at least as good on grass. I rate him good enough to win in Group company. And seeing how versatile he is, I suspect he'll be doing just that before long.

Runner up RIO RIVA (38) has actually run a bit quicker than the winner according to my ratings in the past and is very hard to beat when fresh as he was here. Unfortunately he had his chance compromised by a low draw.

Rio Riva will probably still be fresh enough to run to his best next time. After that his record shows he'll need a break of five weeks or more.

RISING SHADOW CAN WIN IN GROUP COMPANY

Sprinters tend to hit their peak form at five and six years of age. So I guess it isn't that surprising that RISING SHADOW (41) has been doing nothing but improve in recent starts. He's now won three in a row and earned his latest success in the Listed Cammidge Trophy at Newcastle.

Britain is overstocked with good sprinters. But if Rising Shadow gets the yielding or softer ground he needs in the Duke Of York Stakes next time plus a good draw he'll have a great chance of taking his first Group race.

ACTIVE ASSET IMPROVES OVER 12 FURLONGS

After he'd broken his maiden as a two year old rider winning rider Ted Durcan predicted that ACTIVE ASSET (37) was going to be best at 12 furlongs. 35 runs later he was proved right when Active Asset tried the distance for the first time and ran his fastest ever race to score on Lingfield's Polytrack.

I think it's significant that Active Asset's best two previous runs came in a huge field when third in the Zetland Gold Cup and in a strongly run race at Newcastle. Big handicaps invariably generate a strong pace and Newcastle is a very testing course, so it looks likely he ran well in those races because they required more stamina than normal for a a ten furlong races.

If I'm right then Active Asset is unlikely to run this well when he's cut back to ten furlongs for the Rosebery handicap at Kempton next time. But when he goes back up to a mile and a half I'd be wary of betting against him on Polytrack or good ground as he ran a pattern class time here.

HATHAAL (37) was a 50-1 shot but finished a good second. His price was no surprise considering his recent form. After all, while he had won Spain's most valuable dirt race, the Mijas Cup, way back in 2003, he'd lost all but one of his 21 subsequent starts and descended to much weaker company. Somehow though he bounced back to his very best here at eight years of age. It could be that he appreciated the cut back to 12 furlongs. Or maybe he likes Lingfield's Polytrack (it was the first time he tried it). Whatever the reason, Hathaal is a horse to keep an eye on as he is insanely well handicapped right now.

MAHMJRA WORTH FOLLOWING OVER 10-11F

MAHMJRA (36) won a low grade handicap on Southwell's Fibresand in a time that would take much better races. So one has to ask how he has lost so many times. The best answer I can come up with is that the eleven furlongs of the Southwell race represents the limit of his stamina. He's won three of the last four times he's run 10 or 11 furlongs and run second in very fast time when second in his sole loss. But he's lost all eleven times he's run 12 furlongs or more.

Next time he runs what seems to be his specialist distance on fast turf or the AW I'd be wary of opposing Mahmjra.

TAKITWO SMART OVER SEVEN

TAKITWO (36) earned a Listed class speed rating from me when taking a minor race over seven furlongs at Folkestone last August. In fact, he deserves to be credited with the track record for that win as the new method of electric timing adds about half a second to times.

Last week Takitwo again ran fast enough to take a Listed race when scoring on Kempton's Polytrack over the same distance. He has now won four of the seven times he's gone seven furlongs and lost all six times he's run other distances. Clearly he is very useful over what seems to be his specialist distance. Certainly he is way better than his current official handicap rating suggests. This being so he really ought to be winning a few more races in the near future. Indeed, I rather hope he runs at Chester's May meeting. Before then I'd bet him to win pretty much any of the low class races he still qualifies for as long as he runs seven furlongs. The only caveat I'd throw in is that, like many Polytrack winners, he may need fast ground on turf.

MENDO KEEPS ON IMPROVING

MENDO (37) won a two mile novice hurdle at Ascot in a time that gives him a good shot of scoring at the Aintree or Punchestown Festivals. The way he got outpaced and then stayed on indicates that he may improve again if stepped back up to two and a half miles.

I find it interesting that all three of Mendo's wins to date have been on right-handed tracks and that his last four outings have been on courses which turn right. It's interesting because only a third of Britain's jump tracks are right-handed. This suggests that his connections have deliberately steered him towards right-handed courses. If I'm right then his best chance of a Festival win will be at right-handed Punchestown rather than left-handed Aintree.

Runner-up MODICUM (37) started off in a couple of those dreadful British bumpers that are now run over less than two miles. This is not surprising as he is bred for the flat. He's been kept to the minimum hurdles distance of two miles and good ground since, so clearly his connections are worried about him lasting longer. He got caught late after going clear here but ran much his fastest race. I see him as a likely winner of a decent race before the season out. Next season he could very well be a smart two mile novice chaser.

LAOUEN WINS BIG OFF FOUR YEAR LAY-OFF

LAOUEN (37) hosed up in a class 3 handicap hurdle at Hexham despite a four year lay-off. He has now won six of his seven outings over hurdles and earned a pattern class speed rating from me here. No doubt his legs will continue to be fragile, so I'm not sure he'll handle fast ground any more. In any event he'd be an interesting contender for a handicap hurdle at the Aintree Festival.

BENETWOOD IS LOOKING GOOD

BENETWOOD (36) won a novice hurdle at Kempton in unusually fast time for the stub end of the jumps season. His trainer, Victor Dartnall, says he needs time between his races and that this is why he ran below form at Fontwell on his previous start. The horse's record bears him out as he's won three of the four times he's been rested for more than a month between his runs and finished a good second to one of the top novice hurdlers My Turn Now in his sole loss.

Benetwood is considered a chasing prospect by Dartnall, and he certainly has the build for that game. So he looks a very interesting prospect for next season.

I should note that Dartnall also thinks Benetwood is best on fast ground. My ratings say he's probably right as this was the fastest ground Benetwood has encountered and it produced his best performance.

ISHKA BAHA CAN WIN AGAIN

ISHKA BAHA (36) ran away with a minor handicap chase at Uttoxeter in decent time. She's clearly got stamina problems. But over the minimum national hunt distance on good or faster ground she's clearly tough to peg back, having now won two times out of three in these circumstances and run second in her sole loss. Her official handicap mark will doubtless go way up, but my ratings indicate she'll still be well in as she's capable of winning much better contests than the one she took here.