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GLASS HARMONIUM NOT FAR OFF GROUP 1 CLASS
GLASS HARMONIUM (40) stayed on really well to take a hot
renewal of the Gordon Richards Stakes at Sandown, coming with a big run down the
outside and then rallying to hold the even stronger finishing Redwood.
The strong early pace clearly brought Glass Harmonium's
stamina into play, as did the steep uphill finish.
It does seem clear that trainer Sir Michael Stoute is right
to say that Glass Harmonium will stay a mile and a half. In fact he may well
need that far on an easier course off a slower early pace. His previous win over
ten furlongs came at Ascot, another stiff course, off an even stronger early
gallop. He's failed to score in four other tries since his maiden win on easier
courses.
If he were mine I'd skip shorter races and let Glass
Harmonium take up his entry in the Coronation Cup over a mile and a half. That
is a weak Group 1 more often than not and Glass Harmonium has already run fast
enough to take an average renewal.
REDWOOD (40) looked like a serious Derby prospect when
winning the Feilden Stakes in seriously fast time last year but picked up an
injury in the Dante. This was his first run since that race and he so nearly
won. Held up last, he finished with a tremendous run that looked sure to succeed
until the winner rallied to hold him narrowly.
Redwood hung badly right as he was making his run and came
right across from the middle of the course to the far rail. I don't know why
this was but since it was only his fourth lifetime start I'm happy to put it
down to inexperience for now.
Trainer Barry Hills is probably right to say that Redwood
now needs a mile and a half (he's even got him entered up in the Yorkshire Cup).
But he's clearly very effective off a strong pace over ten furlongs on a stiff
track. As with the winner, he only needs to improve a little to take a Group 1.
CROWDED HOUSE (35) was clearly unlucky. He was moving well
when the winner cut across him, forcing him to be taken up. And he was rallying
when the runner up veered even more sharply in front of him, forcing him to be
taken up more abruptly.
The combined effect of the interference on a big horse that
takes a while to find full stride was significant.
I'd like to see Crowded House campaigned in France. If he
stays in Britain the incredibly soft attitude of the UK Stewards on interference
will make it hard for him to get a clear run. In France the jockeys know their
mounts will likely get disqualified if they do what was done to Crowded House
here.
In this regard I'm pleased to see Crowded House is entered
in the Prix Ganay on Sunday. I hope he takes up his entry there as I'd give him
a real shot.
PACO BOY STILL THE KING OF SMALL FIELDS
PACO BOY (40) has problems fighting for position in big
fields as he's below average size. But his turn of foot and tremendous class
makes him very hard to beat in fields of ten or less.
So far Paco Boy has won nine of the ten times he's run in
fields of ten or less, finishing second to the very smart Rip Van Winkle in his
sole loss. He's lost all six times he's contested races with more runners.
Paco Boy's latest win came in the Group 2 bet365 Mile at
Sandown where again he showed that brilliant turn of foot to score by over three
lengths. He's run a bit faster in the past but didn't need to go absolutely flat
out here.
The next target for Paco Boy apparently is the Lockinge
Stakes. He got into traffic problems in that race last year when there were
eleven runners. His chances this year will clearly depend on how many rivals
line up.
AZMEEL SHOULD IMPROVE OVER TWELVE FURLONGS
The slow early pace clearly suited CHABAL (38) in the
Sandown Classic Trial. It enabled him to use what is clearly a brilliant turn of
foot in a sprint finish to beat a runner up in Azmeel that I suspect will prove
his superior.
Chabal hasn't grown much since last year and is just too
narrow and light-framed for me to believe he's going to be a Group 1 horse. On a
fast surface he's clearly useful over ten furlongs though.
Runner up AZMEEL (36) is a bigger, stronger, more mature
sort with a long stride that seems sure to improve over twelve furlongs. He
pulled hard against the slow early pace and had a bit of trouble finding a run
but kept going strongly only to be swamped for finishing speed in the sprint
finish.
Trainer John Gosden is apparently keen to give Azmeel
another shot in a Derby Trial in the Chester Vase or Lingfield Derby Trial. I'd
prefer the former race as it is over the full mile and a half. In addition my
best guess at this stage is that this year it's likely to be the weaker of the
two contests.
Azmeel's sire and dam both produced their best efforts at a
mile and a half. When he gets the chance to go that far he could yet prove Group
1 class. Indeed I gave him a borderline Group 1 speed rating for his win in the
Washington Singer Stakes at Newbury last year.
PROMPTER SHOLD IMPROVE ON EPSOM RUN
PROMPTER (36) looked to be the best horse in the Investec
Derby Trial at Epsom. But luck was not on his side. He was rather keen in the
early stages due to the modest gallop he was setting and looked to have trouble
holding his line around the tight turns.
He was shrewdly ridden by Hayley Turner who wound up the
gallop steadily from just before the straight. And for a long while it looked
like the pair would prevail narrowly from Dreamspeed who was challenging on the
outside. But then that one leaned in and prevented Turner from being able to
ride her mount out fully close home which turned the advantage towards
Dreamspeed.
It could be that Dreamspeed would have won anyway, and I
understand the new British policy is to avoid disqualifying winners for
interference wherever possible. But surely there should at least have been a
token enquiry to let the jockeys and the betting public know the Stewards
weren't asleep at the wheel. As the old saying goes 'Not only must Justice be
done; it must also be seen to be done.' We certainly didn't see it done here.
I liked the way Prompter kept moving well in this race
despite the problems he had handling the track and getting intimidated by the
winner. My strong suspicion is that he'll prove better than the winner and has a
real shot of improving the amount needed to take the Derby Italiano.
ALAINMAAR IS GROUP CLASS
ALAINMAAR (39) clocked a near Group 2 class time to take
the City and Suburban handicap at Epsom in impressive style. He's a big, strong
good looking horse that quickly opened up a gap on his rivals when asked.
Alainmaar is unbeaten in three tries beyond a mile, and I
have to agree with his trainer that he'll stay a mile and a half. Indeed he's a
half brother to Grand Couturier who has won three Grade 1 races over that trip
in America. He's surely run in his last handicap and will be targeted at Group
races now. I'd be wary of opposing him in anything but a Group 1 race, and he's
not eligible gor many of those in Europe because he's a gelding.
TREMENDOUS GUINEAS TRIAL BY CANFORD CLIFFS
I seem to have been watching a different race to everybody
else judged by the general reaction to the Greenham Stakes. They all now seem to
be dismissing CANFORD CLIFFS (41) as a Guineas prospect following his half
length loss to stablemate DICK TURPIN (41).
As I see it Canford Cliffs actually put up a tremendous
trial for the Guineas. He set a really strong pace and quickened most
impressively to go three lengths clear before the furlong pole then threw the
race away by diving across the track just as the brilliant Raven's Pass had done
in the Craven Stakes a couple of years earlier.
The clock shows just how smart an effort the first two put
up.
The time was much the quickest of the two day meeting and
1.08 seconds quicker than that of the Fred Darling Stakes over the same
distance. In fact it was the fastest Greenham Stakes of all time. Only one three
year old has ever run seven furlongs faster at Newbury and that was the Group 1
sprinter Three Points who did so with the aid of a tailwind.
The way that Canford Cliffs quickened up was most
impressive. It enabled him to cover the last three furlongs 1.5 seconds faster
than the fillies managed in the Fred Darling. He was really moving.
This was a serious Group 1 performance by both Richard
Hannon's colts.
I just don't understand why so many people are now
dismissing Canford Cliffs as a sprinter, just as they did with Raven's Pass
after he lost the Craven in similar fashion. He's always looked sure to get a
mile to me. And I predicted he'd probably lose the Greenham last season because
he's such a big horse and must be hard to get fully fit at home.
If he hadn't dived across the course Canford Cliffs would
have won by about a length and a half I reckon and clocked a truly sensational
time. I have to give him a huge shot of winning the 2000 Guineas on this run and
am amazed the bookies have pushed him all the way out to 12-1.
Previously I'd noted that Dick Turpin looked built for
seven furlongs or a mile. This big, handsome colt proved that here by coming off
a searching pace to catch a runner up that was really motoring in the closing
stages.
I don't know why Dick Turpin ran below his best in his last
two starts of 2009. But he's clearly back to the form which saw him dominate his
rivals in his first four starts.
My ratings suggest Richard Hannon is right to say Canford
Cliffs is the best horse he's ever trained. But they also say Dick Turpin is a
very smart horse in his own right, one that Hannon can surely place to win a
Group 1 this season.
PRINCIPAL ROLE GETS INTERESTING FOR THE OAKS
MUSIC SHOW (37) showed a serious turn of foot to win the
Nell Gwyn Stakes.
She's clearly going to have to run a bit quicker to win the
1000 Guineas but wasn't fully fit for this according to trainer Mick Channon.
The main concern I have with Music Show is that she's not
that big and had to be switched dramatically for a run here. If there's a as big
a field as normal for the filly's Classic she could get into a whole mess of
trouble trying to fight her way past bigger rivals.
Back in third I liked the way PRINCIPAL ROLE (34)
performed. She was rolling around a bit and running green, so her jockey was
only able to give her one crack of the whip as he wrestled to keep her balanced
in the closing stages. But she moved forward smoothly before getting outrun by
the winner and the much more hard ridden runner up.
Principal Role is a good looking, mature, middle distance
sort that will clearly appreciate much longer than the seven furlongs she tried
here. This was only her second start, so the Oaks may come a run or two early
for her. But I'll still be very interested to see how she does when she tackles
an Oaks Trial which will surely be her next assignment. She could well prove
Group 1 class on what I saw here.
COORDINATED CUT PROBABLY SHY OF GROUP 1 CLASS
Sectional times suggest that DON CARLOS (29) went off a
little too fast in the Tattersalls Timeform 3YO race at Newmarket and this hurt
the final time (which I've adjusted for). I'd draw a line through this run. I'm
sure he'll do better when ridden with more restraint next time. All he did here
was set the race up for the closers AMEER (38) and COORDINATED CUT (38).
Ameer looked certain to win as he swept through from the
back with a serious turn of foot to lead over a furlong out. But he then dived
about a dozen horse widths across the track to the far rail costing himself
ground and forcing Coordinated Cut to be taken up as he went across him.
It would have been an interesting test of the British
Stewards' determination not to disqualify winners unless absolutely forced to if
Ameer had held on. But Coordinated Cut saved them from potential embarrassment
by rallying strongly to get up.
Ameer is clearly a smart three year old. When I adjust for
the too strong early pace my ratings suggest he and the winner put up Group 3
edging towards Group 2 class performances for this early in the season. My
feeling is that he is the more likely of the pair to progress towards Group 1
company as he has such a terrific turn of foot. But the fact that Godolphin ran
him here suggests that they don't rate him as highly as Passion For Gold who was
so impressive winning the Criterium de Saint Cloud in France.
I should also say that if either of the first two were
truly Group 1 class the early pace would not have collapsed due to Don Carlos
going so quick early and the final time would have been a good deal faster.
Coordinated Cut is rather reminiscent of Monitor Closely
who lost this race by a head last year before going on to win the Great
Voltigeur and run third in the St Leger. Like that one he's a very strong,
scopey sort with a big stride that clearly appreciates a real test of stamina.
In my experience horses with Coordinated Cut's physique
invariably prove just shy of Group 1 class as they lack the push-button
acceleration needed to win at the top level and depend on a searching early pace
to offset their tendency to just lumber along before picking up too late in
slower run contests. In addition, anyone fancying him for Epsom has the tough
task of convincing themselves that he'll be able to cope with Tattenham Corner.
Personally I think he'll always do better on big galloping courses with easy
turns and long homestraights.
RETAINER ANOTHER SMART HANNON TWO YEAR OLD
Following Cape To Rio's sensational performance at
Folkestone, Richard Hannon introduced us to another Group class juvenile in
RETAINER (36) who ran away with a good Conditions race over five furlongs at
Newmarket.
Retainer pulled hard going down to the start and looked to
be racing a little too freely in the lead. But when he was shaken up in the
closing stages he quickened impressively, covering the last three furlongs 1.8
seconds quicker than was run in the next fastest race on the card (the Nell
Gwyn).
Richard Hannon says he'd ideally like to give Retainer a
couple of months off to teach him how to settle better at home. There's time
enough to do that before the Norfolk Stakes which surely has to be his big
target.
SRI PUTRA MAY WELL BE GROUP 1 CLASS
SIR PUTRA (40) has matured into a real bull of a horse.
He's now a heavily muscled, powerful, very classy looking sort that would make
an attractive stallion if only he can gain that vital Group 1 win.
That may well be possible judged by the way Sri Putra
clocked won the Earl Of Sefton Stakes at Newmarket. He rallied impressively when
challenged by runner up Tranquil Tiger to surge one length clear quite quickly
in the last few strides after his rival got level.
It looked to me that Sri Putra had a bit of energy in
reserve and could have run a smidge faster. Seeing that he clocked a Group 2
time, that's impressive.
So far Sri Putra hasn't managed to hold his form in
September or later. But he's won all five times he's encountered good or faster
ground before that. If he gets an invitation for the Singapore Airlines Cup as
his connections hope I'd give him a real shot. He looks like a serious player in
all the big ten furlong races to me.
ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL NEEDS TO DO A LOT MORE
ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL (34) looked good when coming right away
from his field in the closing stages of the Craven. But there's no way I can
interpret the time of the race to say it was a Group class performance. He ran a
much slower time than Sri Putra in the Earl Of Sefton on the same card and only
came home three fifths of a second faster over the last three furlongs despite
running against a slower early pace over a shorter distance.
I guess all Elusive Pimpernel could do was win clearly. But
I'm not enthused about his chances for the 2000 Guineas on this effort.
BULLET TRAIN CAN DO BETTER
The Pattern Committee seem to have a blind spot when it
comes to the ten furlong 3YO Conditions race run at Newbury's Spring meeting. It
is a proper Classic Trial and surely deserves at least Listed status seeing how
many top class horses have taken it over the years.
Henry Cecil has run brilliant horses such as Belmez, Old
Vic, Light Shift and Oath in the race and this year sent out BULLET TRAIN (37).
Bullet Train is a muscular, mature classy looking middle
distance sort that has grown a fair bit since last season. He looked smart
winning his sole start over a mile at Yarmouth last year. He had to be ridden
along when the pace picked up but accelerated smartly in the last furlong with
fellow Derby entrant Lion Mountain and the pair quickly sprinted clear of the
rest, with Bullet Train winning the sprint to the line narrowly but still full
of run - only ever being ridden hands and heels.
Despite the modest early pace Bullet Train was only a
couple of ticks slower than the other winners up the straight that day and would
undoubtedly have run a lot faster judged by his finish if they'd gone a decent
early gallop.
Here Bullet Train lobbed along in the early stages and
showed clear signs of inexperience in the closing stages. He just didn't seem to
know what was required of him until the winner MYPLACELATER (37) flashed by on
his outside late and he picked up really well to go after her and pull away from
the rest. He ended up running second, just as Oath did before going on to win
the Derby.
At this stage it's too early to tell if Bullet Train has
the ability to emulate Oath. But he's a very good looking horse that clearly has
more ability than he showed here. I'm going to be rather interested in his
chances in the Dante.
Myplacelater clearly stays well. She bolted up by nine
lengths the first time she ran beyond a mile and then ran the Group racer Middle
Club to a photo the next time with recent Listed second Kinky Afro back in
fourth.
Last time out, when she was cut back to a mile last time
for what used to be called the Masaka Stakes Myplacelater got outpaced when the
field kicked for home but was picking up ground, using her big stride close
home. She's a useful filly that's clearly Group class. I'd give her a shot of
winning an Oaks Trial but suspect she's not going to be good enough to win the
Oaks itself as she won this race by racing more professionally than the runner
up.
CAPE TO RIO A SERIOUS COVENTRY PROSPECT
Richard Hannon has been doing tremendously well with his
two year olds this season. And he produced his best on yet with CAPE TO RIO (37)
who was most impressive at Folkestone.
The remarkable thing about Cape To Rio's effort is how
strongly he came home over the last three furlongs. He ran them a full two
seconds faster than older handicappers managed in a sprint on the same card.
When I take that into account it pushes the rating I must award Cape To Rio
right up to what is Group 1 for an early season two year old.
I don't think Canford Cliffs is going to develop into a
Guineas prospect like Canford Cliffs, Hannon's big two year old star last
season. But on this run I'd say this good-bodied mature colt has every chance of
repeating that one's win in the Coventry at Royal Ascot.
Runner up COCOHATCHEE (32) is also mature and good looking.
He was most unlucky ton come up against such a smart rival in an ordinary maiden
and is probably capable of better. Certianly he should win a maiden next time.
BIG BUCK'S WIN STREAK PROBABLY AT AN END
I've never been a big fan of BIG BUCK'S (40) primarily
because he's never run a proper Grade 1 time. He's dominated the weakest
division in jump racing for over a year now, winning all eight staying hurdles
that he's contested. But he's never run any faster than he did over fences and
fixed brush hurdles. And over those stiffer jumps against better opposition he
was only a good Grade 2 horse. He's no better now. It's simply that his
opposition has been softer.
Big Buck's has certainly looked impressive winning until
now. Many times he's cruised home, seemingly with plenty in hand. But I've
always wondered just how much more he'd find if a rival of similar class put him
under pressure. We found out in the Liverpool Hurdle at Aintree.
In this race the smart POSSOL (39) had Big Buck's and
everything else at full stretch when he kicked for home rounding the home turn.
He was still narrowly ahead when he over jumped the last, nearly landed on all
fours, lost momentum and started to wander around and lose focus. This ceded the
edge to Big Buck's. But it was very interesting to see how the Paul Nicholls'
horse failed to extend his advantage significantly despite being pushed right
out all the way to the line.
I rate Possol and Time For Rupert the equal of Big Buck's
on my ratings and still have Tidal Bay ahead of him with another five or six are
just a length per mile slower. It seems to me that a horse with his level of
ability is going to have a very hard time continuing to dominate a division
where there are so many worthy challengers. I'd bet his long win streak is now
at an end.
Possol is clearly a little difficult to keep balanced. He's
rather gangly and has shown in the past that he is uncomfortable negotiating the
long downhill runs towards home at Cheltenham and Chepstow. It also seems clear
that he's not very good at clearing fences which claim a high percentage of
fallers (Doncaster, Kempton and Wincanton being the three he's tried).
Here Possol wandered around and seemed to lose focus at the
fourth last, dropping back to third before rallying. The same thing happened at
the last and to a greater extent. This being so I'm not convinced he's best
ridden from the front as he was here. I suspect he'd do better if he were the
one making the late challenge rather than being out in front for a long time.
I'd like to see Possol kept to hurdles because the
opposition is softer. He may never win the World Hurdle because it's run at
Cheltenham. But there are plenty of Grade 1 events run at other courses where
there is no long downhill section to put him off. Over fences many of the tracks
where he could run in big races are unsuitable due to the gradients or stiff
fences. What's more he'd face the same problem as Big Buck's if he switched back
to the bigger jumps in that he'd be up against tougher opponents.
SOUFFLEUR (39) stayed on to take second as Possol went
walkabout and is clearly a smart staying hurdler as well. He
is best on dead flat tracks like Aintree according to his trainer. This is borne
out by the fact that before this fine run he'd had won seven of his eleven
hurdles starts on such courses and placed in three of his four losses. Two of
his wins came at Aintree, so clearly he'll be a big player in this same race
next year.
TIDAL BAY (38) confirmed that he gets outpaced on fast
ground these days. He was flat to the boards when Possol kicked for home before
staying on late to take fourth. I still rate him the best staying hurdler we've
seen in years on my ratings and wouldn't dream of opposing him over timber the
next time he gets some cut in the ground.
CHANINBAR IS FAST
I don't make adjustments for weight differences in my
ratings. Normally this makes little difference. The one major exception is in a
very strongly run two mile handicap chase where a lightly weighted horse can
earn a rating around three points higher than it should. Weight seems to tell in
these races.
A low weight certainly helped CHANINBAR (41) in the Red Rum
Chase at Aintree. He set a scorching pace and just kept on going to score a wide
margin win. However I wouldn't be too quick to put this big run down to a low
weight. Chaninbar might well have won four of the last five two mile chases he's
contested but for falling at Aintree last May. It could just be he'll run just
as fast when he gets more weight on his back. He's certainly an interesting
prospect.
IMPERIAL COMMANDER HAS PROBLEMS JUMPING STIFF FENCES
I thought it was a bad decision running IMPERIAL COMMANDER
in the totesport Bowl at Aintree so soon after his Gold Cup winning seeing how
his record suggested he was best fresh and disliked tight tracks. I thought we'd
learn nothing from his run but it turned out we did.
Imperial Commander clearly had major problems coping with
the very stiff fences at Aintree, eventually unseating when beaten six out.
It now looks highly significant that Imperial Commander has
run clunkers at Kempton and Punchestown, the other two tracks he's tackled where
the fences claim a high percentage of fallers.
Clearly future raids to Ireland with Imperial Commander
will be a bad idea as the fences are stiffer than in Britain. Races at Aintree,
Ayr, Doncaster, Kempton, Lingfield and Wincanton should be avoided too because
the fences at these tracks claim a percentage of fallers similar to Irish
tracks.
Now I'm beginning to wonder whether Imperial Commander
really needs to be fresh at all and if the truly dislikes tight turns. It could
well be that it's only stiff fences that present him with a problem.
Ruby Walsh rode a great race to win the totesport Bowl on
WHAT A FRIEND (40). This quirky horse has a high head carriage and simply cannot
be ridden hard till the last possible moment. Walsh didn't hit him with the whip
until they'd jumped the last and the response was tremendous.
Cheltenham is always likely to be a problem for What A
Friend as the steep uphill finish forces him off the bridle. So he's a most
unlikely Gold Cup winner. But all the other big three mile plus Grade 1 chases
are run on more suitable courses. He may lose the occasional race in future as
he has in the past when his jockey gets after him too early, but around an easy
course he can run with pretty much anything.
The ground was a bit too fast for front running CARRUTHERS
(39) but he ran a fine race to rally back into the lead before the last -
providing a perfect target for What A Friend to aim at.
This was the third time Carruthers and What A Friend have
met. And all three times they've finished first and second, with the score 2-1
in What A Friend's favour. There's little between the pair when Carruthers is
running in a small field, especially with more cut in the ground. But in bigger
fields and on faster ground What A Friend has the edge.
NACARAT (35) ran a big race to go with Carruthers for a
long way till tiring considering how exhausted he'd finished in the Racing Post
Chase just fourty days before. He's always been best fresh and every other horse
that had come out of the big Kempton race had been beaten 100 lengths or more.
It was a very testing race as the early pace was too strong and everything got
so tired they almost ground to a halt.
Next season when he's fresher Nacarat will be a big threat
once more any time he runs on a dead flat track.
TATANIANO A SERIOUS THREAT TO BIG ZEB
TATANIANO (42) set a searching pace while jumping
accurately to run away with the Grade 1 Maghull Novices Chase at the Aintree
Festival. The run was so fast it earned him a rating that puts him very close to
Big Zeb.
With Master Minded looking to be in trouble I'd say that
Tataniano is now going to be Paul Nicholls' top horse in the two mile chasing
division.
Tataniano failed to get home when twice run over trips a
bit beyond his best on soft ground and also in one 2m 5f race. But he's won his
other seven starts and is clearly a top class two mile chaser. He was still
traveling strongly at the end of this race and is going to be tough to beat from
now on.
Like most top two mile chasers Tataniano is best fresh. His
big objective in the first part of next season just has to be the Tingle Creek
where his fast and accurate jumping will give him a big edge over the closely
spaced Railway fences down the far side at Sandown. Even Big Zeb would have
trouble pegging him back there.
I'm not sure it would be a great idea to go to Punchestown
with Tataniano because he ran awfully fast here and may well not recover in
time.
ALDOVRANDI IS SMART
I don't know why Kempton's Masaka and Easter Stakes had
their names changed and lost their Listed status. But this year's renewals
looked as good as ever, especially the race for colts won by ALDOVRANDI (38).
The pace was really slow for the first furlong and a half
in Aldovrandi's race and he threw his head about, clearly wanting to go faster.
The gallop picked up steadily from there and they completed the last six and a
half furlongs of the mile race half a second quicker that older fillies did in a
Listed race over the same trip in the next race. Aldovrandi ran 1.55 seconds
slower than the fillies for the full distance but sectional times suggest
strongly he'd have run a bit quicker than them if the runners had been allowed
to stride on in the very early stages. I've assigned his speed rating on this
basis.
Aldovrandi looked to have a tough task to catch runner up
Azizi when that one kicked for home two furlongs out. But despite having to be
switched for a run Azizi picked him up to score by a length, showing a
tremendous burst of speed to do so and looking like a decidedly smart horse.
Aldovrandi is a very muscular, mature sort who actually has
the build of a seven furlong specialist. But he ran a short head second to
Monblue over 8.5f on soft ground on his only other start in a huge field at San
Siro, and the winner is entered up in the French 1000 Guineas and Oaks. So it
looks like he'll get the mile without a problem in a more strongly run race.
Judged by his stride pattern and that serious turn of foot,
I'd say Aldovrandi is always going to perform best on fast turf or Polytrack.
It's tough to tell exactly how good he is on this run. My rating says he's good
Group 3 edging towards Group 2 but he looked so impressive I'm far from sure he
won't be competitive in Group 1 company.
The plan is for Aldovrandi to go for the Italian 2000
Guineas - unless trainer Marco Botti can persuade the horse's owner to
supplement him for the colts' Classic at Newmarket. Later on he's going to be an
interesting player in races like the St James' Palace Stakes and Prix Jean Prat.
Runner up AZIZI (37) was unlucky to come up against such a
smart rival. He cost himself a little ground by edging right when going for
home. But for this he would have run the winner to a neck or half a length.
Azizi is a good-bodied, mature, classy looking sort that's
built for a mile and has a daisy cutting stride designed for fast ground. If he
hadn't been boxed in when finishing with a rush to be a half length second in
one race he would have won all four previous times he'd run on fast turf or
Polytrack beyond six furlongs.
Azizi has a smart turn of foot but clearly couldn't produce
it on soft ground at Ascot on his final 2YO start. Nonetheless he would still
have finished third in a decent Group 3 but for having to change path when
making his run in the closing stages.
Having watched all his races I reckon Azizi is definitely
Group class on a fast surface at a mile. I think he'll prove up to winning a
Group 3 or perhaps a Group 2 but, as with the winner, it's a bit too early to
say for sure.
PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE AND SALUT FLO ARE SMART
When two horses engage in a lengthy duel in which they
rapidly pull well clear of their pursuers you can be sure they're both good
horses. This certainly looks to be the case with the valuable two and a half
mile chase at Haydock that PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE (39) won from SALUT FLO (38).
Prince De Beauchene moved well just behind the leaders till
throwing down his challenge soon after entering the half mile long homestraight.
He got the better of his rival in a protracted battle which understandably saw
him finish rather tired.
Seeing how tired he finished I think it would be a bad idea
to run Prince De Beauchene back again quickly in the Topham Trophy. The longer
distance of that race would also be a major concern. Prince De Beauchene would
have won all six times he's run 13-20 furlongs but for falling in one race where
he was remounted to take third. He's lost all four times he's tackled longer
trips.
Salut Flo is not very big for a chaser but he's very game
and a slick jumper. He set a strong pace and rallied gamely when the winner
tackled him. I suspect he'll also take a few weeks to get over this tough run.
Indeed his physique suggests he'll most likely always be at his best fresh. I
also wouldn't want to bet him in a really big field over fences as he might have
trouble fighting for position against bigger horses at the jumps.
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