CENTENNIAL STEALS THE CLASSIC TRIAL FROM THE FRONT

I thought that CENTENNIAL (31) was well worth opposing in the Classic Trial at Sandown because I rate him only Listed or Group 3 class. But he managed to beat rivals that are almost certainly a fair bit better than him thanks to a very clever tactical ride from Jimmy Fortune.

The early pace was moderate and Fortune seemed to sense this as he soon kicked Centennial into the lead and continued to go below top speed in the lead until kicking on approaching the home straight.

It's very hard for a horse to gain ground into an accelerating pace. And, thanks to Fortune, Centennial made it as hard as possible by quickening up to cover the last three furlongs half a second faster than in the fastest of the three races over a mile on the card, and even a tenth of a second quicker than Major Cadeaux, the winner of the Group 2 bet365 Mile which also featured a slow pace and a sprint finish.

Despite the huge tactical advantage he enjoyed Centennial only just held on in a photo from the strong finishing pair WHISTLEDOWNWIND (31) and FEARED IN FLIGHT (30). In a true run race I'm convinced this pair would have beaten him soundly.

Centennial's record now looks rather good. But when you look closer it really isn't. He basically stole this race. And the Hanson and Clark Stakes that he won last season now looks like a very weak contest. None of the six horses that followed him home in that race which have run since won next time. In fact the horses that followed him home have collected just one win, and that a maiden, from their subsequent twelve starts. The only one to earn a Racing Post rating higher than 82 was Ramona Chase who actually lost his rider in the Hanson an Clark.

I also didn't like the way Thewayyouare simply ran away from Centennial at Saint Cloud next time. Both challenged together but Thewayyouare was basically still cruising and went away pretty quickly while Centennial was flat to the boards. I looked like a Listed class horse running against one of Group 1 class - and I suspect it was.

As I see it 8-1 against Centennial winning the Derby is crazy. He should be much longer than that. I he does anything except get soundly beaten in the Dante or Lingfield Derby Trial next time I will be very surprised.

Whistledownwind was unlucky not to give trainer Peter Chapple-Hyam a third winner in this race from just four starters (his other loser also ran second). He is a big, good-bodied classy looking sort that clearly has a serious turn of foot. He showed that here by picking up strongly, just as he had on his previous start at Newbury. In that race Whistledownwind lost four lengths at the start and was still last of the fifteen runners at halfway. The pace picked up from there but so did he. In fact he fairly stormed home up the rail, gaining ground hand over fist to win going away and full of run despite running green.

I can understand why Chapple-Hyam says he's reluctant to run such a heavy-topped horse on fast ground. But race times indicate it was good to firm here, so I'm not worried on that score myself.

Whistldownwind has the physique of a horse that wants longer trips, so it makes sense for his connections to nominate the St Leger as his long term objective. Meanwhile he looks to have a favourite chance of winning the Lingfield Derby Trial next time which is apparently his next target.

Feared In Flight came with a long run on the outside up the straight, closing the gap all the way to the line. He looked like a proper mile and a half horse here. I'm reluctant to say he won't prove competitive in Group 1 company once he steps up in trip. After all he ran third in the Racing Post Trophy on his final start as a juvenile.

MAJOR CADEAUX NOT REALLY A MILER

I thought MAJOR CADEAUX (32) would never have the stamina to win over a mile. But thanks to a slow early pace, weak opposition and being ridden to get the trip, he just held held on to win the Group 2 bet365 Mile at Sandown.

The early pace was so slow that Major Cadeaux ended up clocking a time exactly a second slower than that recorded in a handicap on the same card. Even so he still came home slightly slower over the last three furlongs than Centennial did in the Classic Trial over two furlongs longer. This was because he was tiring visibly in the last 100 yards.

Maybe Major Cadeaux will now go on to win more big races over a mile, starting with the Lockinge next time out. My speed ratings certainly indicate he's fast enough to do that. But they also show that all his fastest runs have been over shorter trips. As I see it, if Major Cadeaux is going to win a Group 1 race this year it will be the Prix Foret over seven furlongs not the Lockinge over a mile.

COLONY HAS A SHOT OF WINNING A DERBY TRIAL

One of the strongest trends in British racing over the last decade is that early season three year old handicaps at major tracks have attracted steadily stronger competition. In the past it was the norm for most of the better three year olds to run in pattern company before May. But now slightly more pattern class performances are put up by three year olds in handicaps before May than in black type races.

COLONY (37) provided more evidence of this trend when winning a red hot ten furlong handicap for three year olds in pattern class time at Sandown. Held up a long way off the strong early pace he made ground steadily up the straight but then picked up in terrific style inside the last furlong to quickly pick up the leaders and win going right away. Only a smart horse can make the second big move Colony made here. He's certainly at least Listed class and quite possibly Group class.

The stiff track and strong early pace made this race a real test of stamina. So I'm not sure I'd want to bet on Colony to repeat this performance over the same distance. He surely needs to go up to a mile and a half. I'd like to see him go for either the Lingfield Derby Trial or Chester Vase next time where I'd rate him a serious contender. However I can see the argument for keeping him to handicaps as his official rating will probably still be lower than 90 following this win. Colony is fast enough to win something really valuable in that sphere, though if he were mine I'd be thinking in terms of Derbies.

MIDSHIPS (36) did well to set such a strong pace and keep on for second. The winner outclassed and outpaced him in the closing stages, so I'm not sure he's quite up to pattern class. But he's certainly capable of winning a very decent handicap.

CAPTAIN WEBB (34) was favourite on the basis of his impressive win in fast time last time out. But everything seemed to be happening too quickly for him here. He ran around a bit when asked to try and pick up the leader and looked noticeably short of finishing speed. I think he needs more experience and a step up to a mile and a half. He's a big, tall, strong, long striding sort whose main asset looks to be stamina. It may also be he needs softer ground. He ran a pattern class time before and has a big handicap rating, so I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him go for something like the Lingfield Derby Trial where I'd give him a shot, especially on soft ground.

TEN FURLONGS TOO SHORT FOR ASK

ASK (36) needed every inch of Sandown's stiff ten furlongs to win the Group 3 Gordon Richards Stakes last week. And I'd be wary of blaming a lack of early pace for his sub-par performance. They actually went just a second slower for the first six furlongs than they did in the red hot 3YO handicap later on the card and came home only 1.2 seconds quicker up the straight.

This was a pretty desperate, hard fought win that was only secured in the last half furlong when Ask's superior stamina finally became a major factor.

It seems to me that Ask has the build of a mile and a half horse and needs that distance to be competitive in Group 1 company. Over ten furlongs I reckon he's no better than a Group 3 horse. This being so I'm surprised his connections were talking so confidently about ten furlong targets like the Prince Of Wales Stakes and Tattersalls Gold Cup. As I see it they're only doing so because no Group 1 twelve furlong races are available right now. I think they should wait until they are and keep Ask to Group 2 and 3 contests over what I see as his right distance until then.

HIGHLAND LEGACY DESERVES TO BE CHESTER CUP FAVOURITE

You won't see many easier winners than HIGHLAND LEGACY (38) who cruised home in a hot two mile handicap at Ripon despite getting bumped on the home turn and being heavily eased in the last furlong.

Highland Legacy is a classy looking sort with a beautiful flowing stride. He was most impressive as he surged clear of his field and would have won by five lengths had he not been so heavily eased. He still managed to clock a Group class time and would have hit a rating of 39 or 40 (Group 2 class) but for being eased up.

Trainer Michael Bell says Highland Legacy has strengthened up since last season and is a better horses as a result. That seems certain. Bell also says Highland Legacy needs a bit of give in the ground. I'm not quite sure about that though. This was only slightly on the slow side of good and he's won on good to firm before. Plus that long, flowing stride of his looks designed for a fast surface.

In any event Highland Legacy has now won all three times he's gone long distances. He looks a future Cup horse and will surely be very hard to beat in the Chester Cup next time. Obviously the draw will affect his chance there. The stats show he'll probably need one of the six lowest or four highest draws to score. Personally, seeing that he takes a while to get going and made his run on the outside here, I'd like to see him get one of the four highest draws rather than be buried down on the rail in traffic at Chester.

BOGSIDE THEATRE (37) was outclassed by the winner but ran fast enough to suggest she can earn some black type this season in long distance races for fillies. I'd bet on her franking this form soon.

HELIODOR LOOKS LIKE A FUTURE GROUP WINNER

MISS CHAMANDA (34) ran a big race on her racecourse debut to finish third to one of the top two year old colts. And she improved to score well on her second start at Windsor last week despite running green.

Always in a narrow lead early on, Miss Chamanda started to shift badly to her left when she was asked to stretch clear of her field in the closing stages. She came away well, and she'll undoubtedly start to run straight when she learns how to change leads which she failed to do rounding the dog leg or when asked to go clear (horses normally switch from leading with one foreleg to another entering or exiting a turn or when asked for a greater effort - it stops one foreleg doing a greater percentage of the work, getting more tired and causing the horse to shift ground as a result).

As happens most of the time in early season maiden races, the pace for the first couple of furlongs was moderate but Miss Chamanda came home 1.3 seconds faster than the older sprinters later on the card over the last three furlongs or so. So I've based my rating on the formula I devised using sectional times.

I've no doubt that Miss Chamanda would have earned a rating as big as the 36 I've given Doughnut, the fastest UK juvenile filly so far, if she'd changed leads and kept straight. And it has to be said she is a whole lot bigger than Doughnut. In fact she's so rangy and scopey you might think Miss Chamanda is likely to stay much longer distances if you didn't know she was by Choisir whose progeny always seem to look this way but don't seem to go beyond sprint trips.

Miss Chamanda's connections talked about keeping her fresh until the Queen Mary after this run but also mentioned the possibility of shooting for the Hilary Needler Trophy at Beverley first. Going for the Hilary Needler before the Queen Mary makes a lot of sense for two reasons. First it will give Miss Chamanda more exerience which she clearly needs before tackling Group company. Secondly, thanks to the stiff track at Beverley, it will give her a greater test of stamina, which she also looks likely to benefit from seeing her physique and the way she's finished so strongly in her two starts to date.

Smart as the winner is, runner-up HELIODOR (32) was almost certainly the best horse in the race. He has the build of a miler which is not surprising since his sire was third in the Preakness and his dam's last three wins were over 8.5 furlongs.

Heliodor was about six or seven lengths off the pace early on, with only a couple behind him. He made up ground smoothly and easily from two furlongs out but had to be switched twice to do so. Entering the final furlong his rider saw that the winner had flown and only nudged him out hands and heels to secure second, which he did while continuing to move strongly. He finished the race full of run and looks a likely Group winner to me. In fact, if there was ante-post betting on the Coventry Stakes I'd be tempted to have a few pennies on him. He looks the best prospect for that race we've seen so far. And, unlike most early season youngsters, he's built and bred to keep doing well as the distances of the top races lengthen.

Before he tackles any Group races of course, Heliodor needs to go and win his maiden which I would bet on him doing without any trouble next time.

FLASHMANS PAPERS (31) ran a good race on his debut to pretty quickly come clear of the rest as he tried to go with the first two through the last furlong. He's a mature, rather classy looking, pacey sort that looks set to earn black type as well. He will take a good deal of beating in maiden company next time.

KLYNCH (29) looked as though he'd go with the first three from the way he traveled but was always running green and failed to pick up in the last hundred yards. But he looked as though he would have with more experience, so I'd bet on him improving on this soon and becoming another to frank the form soon of what looked like a red hot race.

IS CURATAIN CALL REALLY A DERBY HORSE?

CURTAIN CALL (36) won a three horse race by half a dozen lengths on his seasonal debut at Pontefract. And I'm not sure the big subsequent market move for him in the Derby was justified.

You could say I'm being what I call an 'equine hypochondriac' for thinking that all is not wondrous about Curtain Call. But I see a few things that concern me here.

First of all Curtain Call has kind of a funny stride pattern. He shows a bit of knee action. Horses that show knee action tend to prefer softer ground. In this regard it's worth noting that he's by a sire whose progeny tend to do best on soft ground out of a mare whose four places were all achieved on soft ground or Fibresand.

With these things in mind, it has to be a worry that Curtain Call has been kept to yielding or softer ground for all but one of his six starts. And that one start on fast ground produced that sub-par performance from him in the Racing Post Trophy.

Secondly there's a lot of stamina on the dam's side of Curtain Call's pedigree, and he was dreadfully outpaced in a couple of his races at two when the pace quickened. This suggests to me that he doesn't have the acceleration required to win in Group 1 company at middle distances.

My third concern involves the sectional times for this race that I clocked. The early pace was strong. In fact the first seven furlongs of his race were run 1.4 seconds faster than the good handicap for older horses won by Cabinet on the same card. But Cabinet was able to come home so much faster that he ended up clocking a half second faster time for the full distance. And Curtain Call's slow last three furlongs wasn't due to him being eased up. His jockey didn't resort to the whip but rowed him along pretty vigorously and never stopped riding.

Okay a horse can do no more than win impressively. But those sectional times tell me he's got to improve a good deal to beat Group 1 horses. His stride pattern and pedigree suggest the normal fast ground at Epsom may well not be suitable. In addition he's only a medium sized horse and I rather wonder whether his three disappointing runs in big fields may be because he's not so good at fighting for position in the kind of big field he'll face at Epsom.

Finally there's the way Curtain Call ran around for a few strides before he stretched clear. This makes me concerned about his ability to handle the severe gradients at Epsom. So far he's run on nothing but great big galloping tracks with easy turns.

Curtain Call will get the chance to dispel many of my concerns when he tackles the Lingfield Derby Trial next time out. But from what I've seen I'll be happy to oppose him there unless the ground is really soft.

JAMBORETTA CAN WIN A LISTED RACE

JAMBORETTA (37) came from off a strong pace to win a decent class 2 handicap over a mile in fast time. It looked to me from the way she was finishing, as well as her past form, that she's probably best over ten furlongs rather than a mile and only produced such a big run here due to the strong pace and stiff track. With her fancy pedigree the objective this year will clearly be to win a Listed race in order to secure her stud value. I reckon that mission should be accomplished. It's interesting to note that she's been kept to right-handed tracks for her last five starts following her racecourse debut. With only a third of Britain's tracks being right-handed this is almost certainly by choice, so I'd be wary of betting her on a left-handed track till she proves she can handle running that way

WAFFLE IS PATTERN CLASS

WAFFLE (34) was a classy looking winner of a hot little maiden race on his debut at Leicester. The final time wasn't brilliant but that's because they went slow for the first couple of furlongs. They ran the last three furlongs about half a second quicker than decent older handicappers in the next race. And when I use the formula I've devised for combing sectional and final times for two year olds it suggests Waffle is pattern class. He certainly looked that way as he closed the gap readily despite the quickening tempo, squeezed through and won going away with a fair bit in reserve. He looks a Norfolk Stakes candidate on this run, being a mature, close-coupled muscular sort. I couldn't say for sure whether he'll get six furlongs though.

RAYVIN MAD (32) another speedy sort, tried his best to get away from his rivals from halfway but was run down by a useful winner. It was impressive how he kicked away from the third as he tried to hold the winner in the closing stages. Only a useful horse can make a big move like that after making another big move earlier in the race. Clearly he'll have no trouble winning his maiden and may also be pattern class like the winner.

HEAVEN KNOWS GETS INTERESTING

The useful CABINET (37) won a decent handicap in pattern class time at Nottingham. He's clearly a smart prospect. It may be that he needs a surface that provides a bit of cushion - either Polytrack or yielding or softer turf. He's now won all three times he's run on such surfaces since losing his racecourse debut but lost all four times he's run on a quicker surface. Then again he's run well in very valuable races on fast ground, so I could easily be wrong on this score

I rather suspect that there's a big race in third placed HEAVEN KNOWS (35) who has earned a Group class speed rating from me before. He looked a big threat a furlong out but then ran around and failed to gain further.

I suspect the slow early pace and sprint finish didn't help Heaven Knows here and that he'll do better off a stronger gallop. Right now all I can say for sure is that he's improving and looked really good before he shifted his ground here. I've got my eye on him to win something decent in the near future.

FIEPES SHUFFLE SHOULD WIN SOMETHING BIG

Until he won the valuable Grade 2 Celebration Chase at Sandown, the main claim to fame of ANDREAS (38) was that he'd won the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham Festival. The Grand Annual invariably features the fastest early pace of the entire season in a chase. And at Sandown the German raider FIEPES SHUFFLE (33) ensured something similar by going off at a terrific gallop.

Before the race trainer Christian von der Recke had voiced concerns that the relatively big field would force Fiepes Shuffle to go off too fast to last home on this very stiff track. And so it proved.

Fiepes Shuffle has amazing pace. He actually switched back to the flat a year ago and beat a whole bunch of pattern class rivals by eight lengths over seven furlongs. It's surprising he stays well enough to win over jumps.

In fact Fiepes Shuffle clearly doesn't stay two and a half miles. But he would have won nine of his other eleven jump starts at shorter trips before this run if he hadn't tipped up at Sandown two years ago.

On his previous start Fiepes Shuffle clocked an extraordinarily fast time to win at Mannheim by a distance. I confess it's very hard to assess the times they run in German jump races as there is normally just one on the entire card. But I went back through the last six meetings where the chase Fiepes Shuffle won was run, and there was only one year where the winner's time compared anything like as well with the flat races - and that was the other year Fiepes Shuffle won the same race.

Mark my words Fiepes Shuffle is going to win a big race sometime in the next year when he's able to set a slower pace than he did here.

I don't really know where Andreas goes from here as he does seem to need a searching early gallop to score in decent company - and that's not often forthcoming in the Conditions chases he'll probably be contesting from now on.

RAVEN'S PASS HAS BIG CHANCE IN 2000 GUINEAS

A horse is most effective at the outermost limits of its stamina. At longer distances it will tire in the closing stages if the race has been truly run. At shorter distances it is in danger of being outpaced. This is a basic, common sense principle that tells us TWICE OVER (39) put up a tremendous performance to win the Craven Stakes narrowly from RAVEN'S PASS (39).

There is no question that Twice Over stays at least ten furlongs because he earned one of the biggest speed ratings I awarded a two year old last season when winning over that distance. In addition he's built like a middle distance horse. He's scopey and rangy. You could easily see him doing well over jumps. This being so he did really well to win the Craven Stakes over a mile.

The strong early pace set by RIVER PROUD (31) certainly helped make the race a test of stamina. He took the field along in a time over six seconds faster to halfway than in either division of the Wood Ditton Stakes over the same course and distance earlier on the card by my estimates. But the suspicion has to be that it was lack of fitness on the part of Raven's Pass that enabled Twice Over to rally late after being headed and score narrowly.

I think Twice Over's trainer Henry Cecil is right to be talking about the Prix du Jockey Club rather than the Guineas or the Derby for his charge. The horse's physique, pedigree and preparation all suggest that the Guineas may well be too short and the Derby too far. Having tipped Twice Over at big odds for the Derby it gives me no joy whatsoever to say this. But I now worry that Twice Over won't quite last home at Epsom. I hope he does, and Cecil will surely have a hard time resisting the temptation to run him seeing that he's now clear favourite and the betting is 10-1 bar Twice Over.

Trainer John Gosden warned beforehand that Raven's Pass was in need of the run. But he so nearly won it, dueling with the winner and producing a tremendous spurt to head him before being worn down again close home.

Raven's Pass was drawn like a magnet towards Twice Over in the closing stages and drifted right across the track as he looked for company. You could argue this made the difference between victory and defeat. But I don't think the result really mattered. This was one of the fastest trials by a 2,000 Guineas candidate we've seen in years.

Raven's Pass actually earned a speed rating of 40 last year when I rated him the fastest juvenile. He looks the one they all have to beat in the 2000 Guineas.

River Proud now seems to have proven in his last two starts that a mile is beyond him. He's got seriously good form in sprints and will be interesting when he's cut back in trip.

HOW GOOD IS PAMPAS CAT?

A horse has no business clocking a time close to decent in a race where the early pace has been about four seconds slower than it should have been for the first seven furlongs. But thanks to a sustained burst of speed over the last three furlongs PAMPAS CAT (34) did manage to run a good time when scuttling away from his rivals to score by five lengths in a ten furlong maiden at Newmarket that has produced several Group winners in the past.

Pampas Cat came home exactly a second faster over the last half mile by my estimates than Campanologist in the Fielden Stakes on the same card and was just three tenths of a second slower than the time they took to run the last four furlongs in the Nell Gwyn Stakes -a three furlong shorter race. If you were impressed with the finishing burst of Infallible in the latter race then you have to be over the moon about how Pampas Cat finished here - because his finishing effort rates better compared with what's the norm for the longer trip he was running.

Pampas Cat has a very relaxed, almost sluggish, manner of racing. But he's clearly got a serious turn of foot and deserves a shot at the Cheter Vase which is apparently his next target.

Pampas Cat has a real daisy-cutting stride, so I don't think he'll be suited to anything but fast ground. That shouldn't be a problem over the next few months though. It's tough to say how good he is but logically he ought to be able to clock a faster time off a stronger early pace. And that suggests he's Group class.

BRONZE CANNON AND DOCTOR FREMANTLE ARE GROUP CLASS

The ten furlong three year old handicap at Newmarket's first meeting often throws up future Group winners. And that was surely the case this year because the first and second BRONZE CANNON (38) and DOCTOR FREMANTLE (38) both looked seriously useful as they engaged in a prolonged duel while sprinting clear of their rivals to clock a Group class time.

Both Bronze Cannon and Doctor Fremantle have Group race entries. And either would merit serious consideration if they ran in a Derby Trial.

It's very hard to tell which of the two will turn out the best or what their preferences are at this stage. All I can say is you won't find me opposing either of them below Group 2 class in the near future.

I confess I like Doctor Fremantle as he's bigger and stronger and has a more attractive stride pattern. But both the first and second finished full of running so I think they're both likely to do very well.

ART CONNOISSEUR PROBABLY THE BEST UK TWO YEAR OLD SO FAR

ART CONNOISSEUR (34) produced a huge move to win a good Conditions race for two year old at Newmarket. Just after the two furlong pole he was a couple of lengths off the leader. But when he was shaken up he accelerated in tremendous style, simply running past everything into a four length lead within about a furlong. He was eased up about fifty yards out otherwise he would have won by a bit more. I reckon he'd have hit a rating of 36 or 37 if really driven out and that makes him the best two year old we've seen so far this season.

I can see why the connections of Art Connoisseur plan to stick to five furlongs and go for the Norfolk Stakes at Ascot. He's a close coupled, muscular, speedy sort - a real ball of muscle. But I still think he'll stay six furlongs. In any event it's going to take a smart horse to beat him.

Runner-up SERVOCA (30) is not built or bred to be effective over five furlongs. He surely wants seven furlongs. Nonetheless he showed good early speed before losing his place when the winner produced that tremendous spurt. But he was rallying to very good effect through the last furlong and gained significant ground to take second.

WILL INFALLIBLE STAY THE MILE?

INFALLIBLE (37) was most impressive when taking the Nell Gwyn Stakes, coming from last to first with a tremendous burst of speed. But horses with necks as short as hers rarely stay beyond sprint trips. And seeing that her sire and dam were both six furlong sprinters, I'd say her chances of getting the mile are a good deal lower than 50%. So I'm amazed she was cut to favourite for the 1,000 Guineas on the basis of this run.

Perhaps Infallible will overcome her lack of experience. Maybe she will somehow find the stamina for the extra furlong. But even then I think her trainer got it right after the race when he told reporters "she is going to have to be darn good to take on that grey French filly" (Natagora).

My speed ratings say this was only a Listed to Group 3 class run. My gut feel from watching her win points the same way. I just can't put Infallible and Natagora on the same level on my ratings or on the visual impressions I got from their recent wins and their physiques.

CHAMPIONSHIP POINT PROBABLY BEST GOING RIGHT-HANDED

CHAMPIONSHIP POINT (39) won a pretty hot Conditions race at Ripon in a time that would win most Group 3's and many Group 2's. My read of his form is that he's at his best on right-handed tracks that aren't really big and galloping like Newmarket or the Curragh. He would have won six of the seven times he's run on such courses if a couple of very close finishes had gone the other way.

Last year Championship Point won good races at Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood. I see no reason why he shouldn't do something similar again this term.

Runner-up SPICE ROUTE (38) has run a string of good races, many of them in Group and Listed company. But he does seem to lack a finishing kick. It could be he'll improve on even softer ground or perhaps on a track with a steep uphill finish - both things that tend to counteract a lack of acceleration.

BID FOR GLORY (38) ran his best ever race to take third. His trainer feels that even the one in 63 gradient horses meet from the six furlong mark to the entrance to the straight on Lingfield's Polytrack would not suit the horse. And it's interesting to note that Bid For Glory's two wins since his maiden success have come on dead flat tracks. They've been in very small fields like this one too - which also looks significant as he's met interference a few times.

In a small field on a flat track I'd give Bid For Glory a serious shot of taking a Listed race.

ROYAL AND REGAL LOOKS GOOD FOR YORKSHIRE CUP

Owner Peter Savill has a good explanation for why ROYAL AND REGAL (40) was able to score his second win from two UK starts when taking the John Porter Stakes at Newbury. He told reporters "I brought him to England because I am convinced he needs a good strong gallop, and too many times in France they crawl, then sprint."

Royal And Regal won this race well in Group 2 class time. He was up against it when twice facing his very smart stablemate Coastal Path in France last year. And I don't know why he ran such a clunker in the Irish Derby. But he would have won his other five most recent starts if he hadn't gone under by a head in the incredibly slow run Prix Hocquart early last year. He's already won a Group race over two miles and looks the one they'll all have to beat in the Yorkshire Cup next time.

I suspect runner-up ZAHAM (40) also needs a strong gallop. He floundered in the Winter Derby which turned into a three furlong sprint off a very slow pace last time. And he ran below form in a couple of slow run races before that. Here though he stormed home and only just failed to get up, equaling the big speed rating I gave him for chasing home the smart Ask at Ascot last year.

Zaham is a Group 2 horse on my speed ratings and will surely be taking a big race soon.

Third placed TEMPELSTERN (39) provided the 'good strong gallop' the winner needed, setting the pace until headed in the last furlong. He's a useful front running sort that can set a strong pace and keep on going. No doubt he'll be taking the winner on again in the Yorkshire Cup where he'd have a shot of reversing placings if allowed to go a bit slower up front.

The strong pace and soft ground brought the stamina of IVY CREEK (39) into play. He stayed on strongly to finish a close fourth. He ran another seriously fast race last year at the very stiff Pontefract on yielding ground. It looks like he needs at least genuinely good or slower ground to produce his best, and at least a mile and a half. He's capable of taking a Group 2 in these circumstances.

COBO BAY USEFUL WITH CUT IN THE GROUND

COBO BAY (37) clocked a Listed class time when making all the running to win a mile class 3 handicap for three year olds at Ripon. His trainer says he doesn't like firm turf, and he certainly seems to be right. So far Cobo Bay has won all four times he's run on Polytrack or yielding or slower turf at seven furlongs or more. He's going to be forced into pattern company soon due to his increasing handicap mark. But he's capable of scoring in at least Listed company on this run.

BONNIE CHARLIE LOOKS A NORFOLK STAKES CANDIDATE

Richard Hannon looks to have a Norfolk Stakes candidate on his hands in BONNIE CHARLIE (34) following the juveniles impressive win on his racecourse debut at Windsor.

Always moving very smoothly, showing a smooth, daisy-cutting stride, Bonnie Charlie had no problem keeping almost level with the leader when the pace quickened up markedly after about a furlong and a half. He kept going well from there and pretty much cruised away late to win full of running. I'd be pretty sure he'd have won more impressively and by a bigger margin if they'd gone a good pace all the way.

If I rate Bonnie Charlie purely on the final time he clocked I'd only give him a rating of 22. But the new formula I use for two year old races, where they so often go slow for the first couple of furlongs, suggests a pattern class speed rating. The formula is based on sectional times, and my estimate is that Bonnie Charlie came home 0.7 seconds quicker over the last 700 yards than the winner of the handicap over the same trip later on the card.

Bonnie Charlie is a compact, muscular, real five furlong sort to my eye. I don't think he has the size, substance or stamina to be a factor in big two year old races later in the season. And I doubt he'd act on going any slower than this. But he looks one of the best prospects we've seen so far for the Norfolk Stakes.

Runner up MISS CHAMANDA (31) is big for a juvenile filly (no doubt because her sire is the giant Aussie sprinter Choisir). She was under pressure to keep up once the pace quickened and then ran green in the closing stages. It looks to me that she's built for six furlongs and she certainly ran as though wanting an extra furlong here.

Third placed RIFLESSIONE (29) ran significantly below the form he showed when second to Doughnut last time. The most likely explanation is that he needs genuinely soft ground. But it's also possible, judged by his physique and pedigree, that he wants a greater test of stamina than this race which was basically a 700 yard sprint. He certainly has the build of a six furlong rather than five furlong horse.

FANJURA'S WOOD DITTON LOOKS THE BETTER DIVISION

With both division of the Wood Ditton Stakes developing into a sprint over the last half mile it makes sense to rate the one which produced the fastest final four furlongs the best. This was the second division won narrowly by FANJURA (22) from KHATEEB (22). He went the first half mile about six seconds slower than they did in the Craven on the same card but came home over the last half mile three seconds quicker (and about half a second quicker than the other division of the Wood Ditton). I can't say for sure, but after tinkering around with various formulas on my calculator and looking at the race I reckon Fanjura is probably at least close to pattern class.

Fanjura and Khateeb are both mature, good-looking horses. From his physique and the way he ran I'd say Fanjura will stay ten furlongs without a problem. I'm less sure that Khateeb will get further than a mile.

UNNEFER CAN IMPROVE AGAIN

Henry Cecil's resurgence continued when UNNEFER (37) won a hot Conditions race in taking style over ten furlongs at Newbury. Always moving best, Unnefer looked set to blow home by several lengths when cruising up to the front running BOUGUEREAU (37) before the two furlong pole. But that one turned out to have plenty of run left in him, so the pair proceeded to engage in a protracted duel over the final quarter mile. There was little in it all the way to the line but Unnefer was clearly going the better of the pair and took then held a narrow lead despite looking to run rather green. He looked to me to have more in reserve at the finish than the runner up and ended up clocking a very decent time.

Unnefer is a very well balanced horse that's built to produce a turn of foot, which he showed here. I was impressed that he was able to hold his line when Staying On was failed to handle the turn and moved out towards him early on. Many horses would have been spooked and gone wide. This bodes well for future races where he'll face more traffic.

Unnefer's dam is a half sister to Derby winner Kris Kin and my feeling is that Unnefer might just improve to somewhere close to that level. Certainly he's Group class and I've no doubt he'll get a mile and a half. In addition I'm not worried about faster going even though his wins to date have both been with cut in the ground. Horses with a turn of foot like his invariably prefer a faster surface.

Bouguereau showed real class to rally so strongly when the winner tackled him. He too is almost certainly a Group horse. But his pedigree and physique suggest that around he won't stay much more than the ten furlongs of this contest. His big target is the Derby Italiano on May 10th. That race has been cut back to 11 furlongs this year and had its value increased to a million Euros, so I suspect it's going to attract a stronger field than has been the case in the past. The shorter trip will suit Bouguereau but I imagine he'll find a few too good for him in the line up.

MUTHABARA HAS A REMARKABLE TURN OF FOOT

The Fred Darling Stakes was visibly run at a slower early pace than the Greenham Stakes on the same card. I actually noted a couple of horses pulling hard for their heads in the first furlong - something you don't often see in a seven furlong race. So I wouldn't take too much notice of the final time being slower than the colts' race. The winner MUTHABARA (28) is clearly a useful filly.

Muthabara looked to be in trouble with a furlong to go, being ridden along about three lengths back in fifth place. But soon after she produced a tremendous burst of speed to mow the leaders down and win going away full of running. Her win was rather reminiscent of those Bank's Hill achieved for Andre Fabre a few years ago. That filly also possessed a devastating turn of foot. And like her, I suspect Muthabara will get ten furlongs.

Muthabara is now unbeaten in three starts. If there's a danger to Natagora in the 1,000 Guineas she is surely it.

It's a pity Muthabara is not Breeders' Cup nominated as her turn of foot would give her a real shot of emulating Banks Hill by winning the Filly and Mare Turf - a contest which is invariably slow run and goes to the horse with the best finishing kick. French races also tend to involve sprint finishes, so it would be interesting to see Muthabara try her luck over there (the Prix L'Opera would be a logical late season target).

Muthabara earned a speed rating of 36 from me at two. Normal improvement would see her hit 38 or 39 this year, and that's good enough to make her very competitive in Group 1 contests for three year old fillies.

TRANSCEND SHOULD WIN A BIG HANDICAP

On his final start of the year in 2007 TRANSCEND (39) clocked a seriously good Group class time to win at Brighton. He did so again when winning a much better race at Thirsk on his seasonal debut.

Settled in second place, Transcend was always moving the best and had all his rivals in trouble when he kicked for home before reaching the two furlong pole. He only had to be ridden along to open up a three length gap and had things so much in hand in the last furlong his rider was able to look over his shoulder and ease him up in the last fifty yards.

Clearly this big strong horse has improved markedly. And I confess I don't know why. I also don't know what his distance limit is for sure. He was still moving strongly at the end of a fast run seven furlongs on softish ground here, so logically he should get the mile.

Transcend looks set to win a big handicap sooner rather than later, and I won't be opposing him in the near future.

EXTRATERRESTRIAL (38) had some good form in Ireland and finished well to go clear of the rest on his second start for new trainer Richard Fahey. I suspect this trip of seven furlongs is his best distance, and I'd be looking for him to win something decent in the near future.

BENTONG A SMART SPRINTER WHEN FRESH

BENTONG (38) earned a Group class speed rating from me when taking a hot little class 2 sprint handicap at Brighton on yielding ground. He was always cruising, tracked the runner up ANGUS NEWS (36) all the way, made slight contact with that one two furlongs out, took a while to find full stride when shaken up but was powering clear quickly in the last 100 yards. He looked to have a fair bit in hand and has previously run a point quicker on my ratings.

The key with Bentong is clearly that he needs to be fresh. All his wins have conformed to what I call 'the rest pattern'. That is, he's good for his first two runs of the season and then needs a break of at least five weeks to run well again.

I also suspect that Bentong has a bit of trouble with the traffic to be found in the really huge fields which line up for races like the Stewards Cup and Wokingham. He found a bit of trouble even in a tiny field here and has been hampered in bigger fields before.

Bentong has now won all four times he's been fresh and run in fields of 14 or less. Though I wouldn't discount the possibility of him scoring in a bigger field with a favourable draw.

On what I saw here I'd be worried about opposing Bentong in his favoured circumstances in any race. I can easily see him scoring in Group company.

An interesting thing about him is that he has the build of a miler and has already won over seven furlongs. So trainer Paul Cole has plenty of scope to find a good race for him. I'm rather excited about Bentong's prospects and am hoping to get the chance to bet him at big odds in a much better race than this.

Angus News won two Listed races back in 2006 when her connections were confidently forecasting she'd soon score in Group company. I don't know why she's only won a couple of minor races since then. But my speed ratings for her now show a most unusual pattern. They indicate that her last eight starts have all been faster than the one that preceded it. Basically she's improving from race to race, and I confess I don't know why.

On her previous outing Angus News finished a good third to what I rate a prospect for top sprint honours in Sonny Red in a Conditions race. Here she set the pace which enabled Bentong to post a Group class time. On her start before that she ran a close third in Listed company. This being so she's very lucky to still have an official handicap rating of just 89, seeing that she was as high as 100 back in 2006 and is now approaching the form she was showing then.

Seeing that she's already earned the black type she needs to ensure her stud value, I imagine Angus News' connections will be keen to exploit her lenient official mark in a big handicap sometime soon before stepping her back up to Listed company. I've given her ratings as high as 39 in the past, so I suspect she hasn't stopped improving yet. She looks set to run as fast as she did back in 2006 and that means she's getting very interesting for one of the big sprint handicaps.

CAPTAIN WEBB COULD BE ANYTHING

CAPTAIN WEBB (37) blew home by twenty lengths in a ten furlong handicap at Brighton, earning a pattern class speed rating from me despite being eased in the last 100 yards. This big, long striding three year old is now unbeaten in three starts and could be anything.

As on his last start, Captain Webb was niggled along slightly to go the early pace but really asserted when the race began to be a test of stamina in the closing stages. Clearly he is wanting a mile and a half already and looks likely to stay the St Leger distance. Indeed he's fast beginning to look like a candidate for the final Classic.

A couple of things temper my enthusiasm for Captain Webb. The first is that he hits the ground pretty hard and has been kept to yielding or softer ground to date. With faster ground set to prevail for the next few months he could be in trouble.

The second thing that makes me hesitant about seeing Captain Webb as an immediate prospect for big race success is that he still looks to be green. He idled and ran around in front last time, with his ears going all over the place as they often do with very green horses. This time his jockey kept him glued to the running rail all the way up the straight. Clearly he was worried that Captain Webb would run around again if he gave him the chance.

The other thing that puts me off Captain Webb as a prospect for big races in the next couple of months is that he looks to lack the kind of push-button acceleration to win top contests over 12 furlongs or less. He surely won't be earning black type till he runs longer trips than a mile and a half.

One logical thing to do with Captain Webb would be to lay him off till the Autumn, bring him back for the Great Voltigeur Stakes and then hope to get a bit of cut in the ground for the St Leger. However I'd say the horse needs more experience before he'll be able to win in Group company. It's sad to see such a smart horse lose but I'd say Captain Webb would learn a lot from getting beat in two or three good races between now and the Autumn, even if they're run on unsuitably fast ground. It might turn out that he'll be able to act on firmer going anyway.

In any event, Captain Webb does look a seriously good prospect. One thing's for sure: He'd make a seriously good hurdler.

BLUE SPINNAKER BACK TO BEST

BLUE SPINNAKER (37) has earned pattern class speed ratings from me on many occasions. But after blanking last season it looked like he had little chance of recovering his form at the age of nine. However it turns out that he was wrong all last season according to trainer Mick Easterby. This season the old horse has bounced back to form with a vengeance and would be unbeaten in all three starts but for meeting trouble in running when second at Beverley.

Blue Spinnaker has dropped 39 pounds in the handicap since 2005 but is still every bit as fast according to my speed ratings. So I suspect his winning streak hasn't ended yet.

It's worth noting that all Blue Spinnaker's wins have come on dead flat tracks and that only his maiden success was scored on a straight course. I've speculated in the past that he needs the strong pace that's generated by a big field, and the record shows his last five wins have come in fields of 14 or more. It may also be he needs a bit of cut in the ground these days, though this is far from certain.

DON'T PANIC PROBABLY A BIT BETTER THAN MEDICINE PATH

Peter Chapple-Hyam is fortunate to train two milers as good as MEDICINE PATH (39) and DON'T PANIC (38) who fought out the finish of the Doncaster Mile. At Doncaster it was Medicine Path who came out the better of the pair, winning by a length. But IF the pair meet again I suspect it will be Don't Panic that comes out on top.

My prediction is based on the fact that Medicine Path's latest win before this came in a typically slow run Polytrack race involving a sprint finish while Don't Panic won off a really searching early pace on his previous start. Here the early pace was only moderate till just before halfway and that looked to suit Medicine Path. He sat in behind in last place and was able to cruise up to get alongside Don't Panic just off the leaders before the two furlong pole. When the pair settled down to fight out the finish Medicine Path spurted a length and a half clear of his rival in just twelve strides before Don't Panic started to come back at him in the last fifty yards. I'd say Medicine Path's superior turn of foot won him this race. In a more strongly run race or on a stiffer track I'd bet on the result being reversed.

Chapple-Hyam says that Medicine Path prefers cut in the ground. But I'm not at all sure this is true. Three of his previous four wins came on good to firm ground or Polytrack which basically mimics good to firm going. And horses with a serious turn of foot like his generally do best on a fast surface.

So far Medicine Path's four wins have all followed a break. But this may well be just happenstance. After all he was a good third in the Racing Post Trophy when he didn't have a break and Chapple-Hyam was worried that he might actually need this run.

In any event Medicine Path is clearly a smart miler. He's won four of his six starts at the trip and finished third in a Group 1 and second in a Group 2 in his two losses.

Don't Panic also seems best at a mile, having won all three of his previous starts at the distance. He was cruising with a couple of furlongs to go but simply couldn't go with his stablemate when Medicine Path blasted by him. However he was rallying so strongly and quickly very late that he had to be switched to avoid bumping into the back of Medicine Path while gaining three quarters of a length in a matter of strides.

Don't Panic has a rather choppy action, so I'm prepared to believe he really does need cut in the ground. But that decent win on good to firm at Goodwood last year suggests he can actually handle a quicker surface.

KANDAHAR RUN WILL IMPROVE FOR THIS RUN

KANDAHAR RUN (37) is a horse I have a lot of time for. He impressed me in all his starts last year and did so again when going under narrowly in the Listed Feilden Stakes at Newmarket on his seasonal debut.

A couple of weeks earlier trainer Henry Cecil had reported that Kandahar Run was "very big". And paddock judges said the horse would definitely come on for the run.

Kandahar Run certainly behaved like a horse that was not fully fit following a lay-off. Like many horses in such circumstances he was just too keen and pulled hard against the moderate early pace for the first half mile, actually throwing his head around as jockey Ted Durcan tried to anchor him in behind the other runners. He raced much more smoothly when the pace quickened three furlongs out and the race developed into a sprint. He made up the ground quickly to nearly go level with the eventual winner CAMPANOLOGIST (37) but couldn't quite get past him. I suspect he'd have blown right by and won by a couple of lengths if he'd been fully fit and he'd settled better.

Kandahar Run is built and bred for ten furlongs and is entered up in four Group races over that distance. He's also in the Guineas but a mile is surely too short. He's in the Derby too, but, as Cecil noted, he wouldn't want to be going much more than ten furlongs.

I still can't say just how good Kandahar Run is. It's perfectly possible he'll be able to win a Group 1 race like his three parts brother Grey Lilas. Certainly I'd be wary of opposing him below that level over ten furlongs next time.

Campanologist is clearly a decent horse in his own right. But he lacks the turn of foot of a proper Group 1 horse. Group 3 looks to be more his level. Having said that he has now won all four times he's run over a mile plus or a very stiff seven furlongs on a fast surface. It's possible he may progress further when stepped up to ten furlongs. Certainly he looks likely to appreciate that distance.

ZIDANE HAS A TERRIFIC RECORD IN HUGE FIELDS

The more runners there are in a race the stronger the early pace is likely to be. And there's no question that ZIDANE (20) needs a seriously strong early pace to make his ultra-late finish effective. This being so it's not surprising that he's won four of the five times he's run in fields of twenty or more but lost all seven times he's run in class 3 or higher in smaller fields.

Zidane's latest success in a huge field came in the Listed Abernant Stakes at Newmarket which was a Group 2 race in all but name. As ever he came from far back and just got up close home.

It's a shame that Zidane is not Breeders' Cup nominated as I could see him running a big race in the Breeders' Cup Sprint at Santa Anita. I imagine Santa Anita will be replacing their problematic Cushion Track with Polytrack or Tapeta. And experience shows that on those surfaces when horses go the kind of pace they always go in the Breeders' Cup Sprint they set the race up for a very late runner like Zidane.

The targets for Zidane in Europe are pretty obvious (Golden Jubilee, July Cup etc). And if he hits another huge field in any of them I'll respect his chances greatly.

Runner up ASSERTIVE (40) always seems to run his best races over six furlongs on fast ground before July. He's won four times out of nine in these circumstances and run second to high class rivals in three of his losses. But he's blanked in fourteen starts from July onwards. He's earned this sort of rating from me before, and its' more than good enough to win him a decent Group race.

Third placed DARK MISSILE (40) is a mare. And a common pattern in the form of mares is that they do best at tracks relatively close to where they're trained. Dark Missile did scramble home in a poor maiden up North as a two year old. But she's run unplaced all six times she's had to travel a long way to the races since. She's won or gone very close the last nine times she's run closer to home. She's now run fast enough to win a Group 2 three times and came within a short head of winning at that level last September. She looks sure to finally get a Group win this season. Though I imagine her connections will avoid undulating tracks like Goodwood as they say she lost her balance coming down the hill the only time she ran there.

SONNY RED (39) was one of four horses that crossed the finish almost in line abreast. He only just went under and has gone very close to winning all three of his starts last year.

Sonny Red looked set to win this race as he was moving best and in the lead with a furlong to go. But he seemed to run a bit green and flashed his tail for a second when his jockey asked him to go about his business and was caught before picking up the bit again and gaining ground pretty strongly in the last fifty yards. He was still moving strongly at the finish and I again got the impression he can run faster, just as I did when he won so well last time.

I suspect Sonny Red is going to prove one of the top sprinters this season and will prove the best horse to come out of this race. He's lightly raced for a sprinter and is getting better as he gains experience.

IL WARRD MAY NEED MORE TIME

IL WARRD (37) showed an impressive turn of foot to sprint clear of his rivals in the Easter Stakes over a mile on the Poly at Kempton. And clearly he should be given a shot at a Guineas. But although he's a big strong sort his stride pattern looks to me like that of a rather immature horse that needs to strengthen up a bit in front. Watch him gallop and you'll see he comes down very slightly in front just like many two year olds do before they mature.

It could be that Il Warrd simply has a rather odd stride pattern and always will. It does result in him hitting the ground rather hard. So it's interesting to note that his trainer Marcus Tregoning said he wanted to avoid firm ground with the horse who apparently developed quarter cracks (small splits in his hooves) last year.

Horses that don't like jar in the ground also tend to do badly on tracks with steep downhill sections because they hit their legs harder on them. So I rather wonder if that clunker Il Warrd threw in at Goodwood last year resulted from the undulations.

If he were mine I'd be inclined to give Il Warrd the Summer off and bring him back for an Autumn campaign in the hope that he'd strengthen up. (It's been my observations that three year olds tend to grow more if you give them time off.). Right now I'd bet against him winning in Group 1 company with confidence. But later on when he's stronger I wouldn't be so sure.

In any event Il Warrd is clearly a useful miler. And though he has a fast ground action and probably won't handle soft going I'd want to avoid betting him on undulating tracks or really fast ground.

STIMULATION SHOULD IMPROVE OVER A MILE

The Free Handicap doesn't tend to attract horses as good as it did a couple of decades ago. But this year's winner STIMULATION (37) should do better than most. He has the build of a miler and looked like a miler running against sprinters for much of the way. He was flat to the boards and only gradually closed the gap on the leaders to get up on the line.

Stimulation is a mature, good looking sort. I can see him improving to win Group races over a mile. Weirdly enough, even though he's by Choisir, I have a feeling he'd get ten furlongs. His dam is a sister to a ten furlong winner and her other winning foal has won over ten furlongs and stays twelve.

Stimulation has run nothing but good races in his four starts to date. Trainer Hughie Morrison says he tends to pass horses easily but then idle in front. For this reason he reckons a bigger field suits Stimulation best as it gives him plenty to shoot at. This suggests we may be looking at a horse that's better than he appears on bare form. After all Stimulation was unlucky when going under by a head to Beacon Lodge in the Horris Hill and ran second in a very small field when beaten a length by Confront. With a bit of luck he'd probably be unbeaten in four starts. Certainly I'd consider him carefully in any race he contests.

STANDIN OBLIGATION WOULD BE INTERESTING IN GALWAY PLATE

STANDIN OBLIGATION (38) won a valuable three mile handicap chase at Kelso in fast time. He seems to be an out and out Spring and Autumn horse that is no good in the darker, colder months. So far he's won ten times out of eleven from April to mid November but blanked in eight tries during the main part of the jumps season.

If he were mine I'd be eyeing the huge prize money offered for the Galway Plate. And, seeing that Standin Obligation excels on fast ground and is proven at the Galway Plate trip, it's hard to believe his connections won't steer him towards the big race.

STAN DOES IT AGAIN

I confess that I don't really understand why STAN (38) has suddenly struck form. But he won his second big race in a row in fast time when taking the Grade 2 Silver Trophy at Cheltenham. My best shot at analysing his form is that he needs yielding or faster ground and does not stay three miles.

DOES EARTH PLANET LIKE THE WINTER?

EARTH PLANET (37) clocked a pattern class time when winning a good staying handicap hurdle at Cheltenham. He certainly looks like he'll jump a fence next season. But there's an obvious pattern to his form that makes me wonder whether he might go off form after winning first time over fences next term. So far he's lost all six times he's run between November and February but won all three times he's started outside this period. Perhaps the application of a tongue tie is what has improved him in his last couple of starts. Still I'm going to be cautious about supporting him after October next season until he's shown he can hold his form.

MAHOGANY BLAZE IMPROVING

Previously I've had a theory that MAHOGANY BLAZE (38) doesn't last home on tracks with steep uphill finishes - or indeed in any circumstances that demand stamina. But he proved me wrong when winning narrowly in good time at Cheltenham form the useful OSLOT (38). Now it could be that a combination of a moderate early pace, a small field and fast ground enabled Mahogany Blaze to get home. But most likely it was the hold up tactics that did the job. These were used when he was on his way to running a really big race, maybe even winning against Tidal Bay at the Aintree Festival, and they did the trick here.

Indeed jockey Paddy Brennan will probably hold on to Mahogany Blaze even longer in future as he said afterwards he felt the horse would have won by a wider margin had he delayed his move longer.

Now I'm going to be very wary about saying this big, good looking horse won't get home in any circumstances. Mahogany Blaze is clearly very tractable and a nimble jumper. It's perfectly possible he will develop into a contender for top honours over two miles next year. Having said that, this was just one race at the end of the season, so it may be a bit early to draw too many conclusions from it.

Oslot had won his three previous races over fences and earned his biggest speed rating yet to run the winner to a photo. It is interesting to note that seven of his eight wins to date have come off a break. This is normally a pattern you see with two mile chasers, so it may well be the cut back to the minimum trip suited him here. It could be that next year, when asked to got the stronger early pace found outside the novice ranks, he will fail to last the two and a half miles he's won over before.

BORDER CASTLE WIN NO FLUKE

BORDER CASTLE (40) earned a Group 2 class speed rating from me when winning from the smart dual Listed winner Zero Tolerance at Newmarket on his three year old debut back in 2004. But I confess he rather disappeared off my radar till he repeated the trick to take the Scottish Champion Hurdle last week.

There was no fluke about this success at all. Border Castle chased a strong pace, went on a long way out and rallied strongly to finish full of run when the smart TAKEROC (39) tried to challenge him up the straight.

My best shot at analyzing Border Castle's form is that he's at his best on a galloping left-handed track. All his wins have been on such courses barring that Newmarket success where the last mile was up the straight.

It was a smart move switching Takeroc back to hurdles for this race as he's on the small side for chasing and has looked stretched to cope with the steeplechase fences he's faced in Britain (which are stiffer than those to be found in France where he did so well). He ran right up to his best here.

I don't really know quite where Takeroc goes from here. My ratings say he's not quite fast enough to beat Grade 1 horses over fences. And I wouldn't fancy his chances in valuable handicaps over the bigger jumps as they invariably attract big fields which would make it much harder for Takeroc to clear the fences. If he were mine I'd be inclined to exploit his relatively lenient official hurdle rating and shoot for more valuable handicaps over timber like this one.

MARCEL STILL SMART IN SMALL FIELDS

MARCEL (37) looked likely to develop into a star when winning nine times in a sequence of ten races as a novice hurdler, including two Grade 2's and a Grade 1. He's failed to win all ten times he's tried pattern company since that time but remains a useful horse in small fields. He's won five of the last six chases he's contested with less than ten at trips short of two and a half miles and was impressive when taking his latest race at Ayr's Scottish National meeting.

PERKS IS PATTERN CLASS

PERKS (37) showed little in three starts as a two year old but has matured over the Winter according to trainer John Dunlop. He certainly showed marked improvement when running away from a big field to take a three year old handicap over a mile up the straight at Doncaster.

Perks was held up just off the pace, improved to dispute the lead four strides before the furlong pole and simply bounded away from there to quickly open up a six length gap by the finish to win full of run.

We now need to see whether Perks will only ever reproduce this level of form on the kind of soft ground he encountered at Doncaster. It's tough to give a strong opinion on this score. But his sire and dam were both fast ground performers and Perks doesn't show the kind of knee action you'd normally associate with a mudlark.

On this run Perks could win a minor Guineas trial. But he'll still qualify for handicaps even with a big penalty. So he looks worth following.

APRIL PRIDE WORTH WAITING FOR

You might think that a horse by Falbrav out of a Theatrical mare has no business winning a five furlong two year old race early in the season. But APRIL PRIDE (31) did the job at Bath.

MAMLOOK HAS A SHOT IN SWINTON

MAMLOOK (36) won in fast time when taking a fiercely run juvenile handicap hurdle at Ascot. Held up, a long way off two gung ho front runners, he improved steadily from the end of the backstretch and cruised up to dispute the lead before the last. He fluffed that jump though, losing ground and momentum on the landing side. But he had so much in reserve he was able to pick up again to catch the leader and win going away while still moving smoothly.

It looks like Mamlook only just gets the minimum jumps distance of two miles and doesn't even do that on a stiff track. But he's won four of the five times he's gone beyond ten furlongs on easier courses, with his sole loss being a race at Ludlow where he pulled too hard to last home.

I see Mamlook developing into a very decent hurdler. And I'd say he's ideally suited to very fast run two mile hurdles on relatively flat tracks. That describes the Swinton Hurdle perfectly, so it looks a shrewd move to target him at that race next.

COMMANDER KEV A GOOD NOVICE CHASING PROSPECT

COMMANDER KEV (35) looked sure to win a good maiden hurdle at Ascot when cruising into the lead with two to jump. But approaching the last he started to take on that goofy look that inexperienced horses do when they've been in front too long. His ears started going back and forth and he looked around for company, spotted the rail and made for that, allowing the late rally of HORA (36) to look a bit stronger than it was.

Hora stayed on so strongly I can't say for sure that Commander Kev would have won if he hadn't run green and idled in front. But his loss is probably a blessing in disguise as it retains his novice status for next season. Then again he's already seven, has the build of a three mile chaser and is with a trainer who tends to focus on the bigger jumps. So it may well be that Commander Kev will be found an opportunity over timber soon, even if it is before the end of the season.

Hora continued the extraordinary run of Nicky Henderson with hurdling debutantes in the second half of the season.

Normally trainers want to protect the novice status of their better prospects as the end to the season draws near. But over the last three seasons Nicky Henderson seems to have identified this as an opportunity for his won horses to make a winning start over timber. He's won about 40% of the time with his hurdling debutantes from January to the end of the season in this period. And this year he has won a remarkable 13 times out of 24 with horses he's run over timber for the first time.

I reported on Hora a few months back when she won in pattern class time on the All Weather. She did so again here and looked to take this race purely on stamina. She was outpaced when the leaders kicked for home and under pressure from a long way out. Her chance of winning looked pretty remote at the last but her stamina really kicked in on the run in where she picked up the leader and surged clear close home.

If Hora stays in training rather than going to stud straight away she'd be an interesting prospect for the new series of valuable mares only hurdle races to be run next season. She's certainly capable of at least placing in one of those contests on this run, though I rather suspect she's going to need three miles to produce her best consistently. I also suspect she's best when fresh.

SPANISH HIDALGO PROBABLY BEST AT TWELVE FURLONGS

The Germans have a stranglehold on Italian pattern races at longer distances these days thanks to the fact they stay so much better than the local horses. But last year SPANISH HIDALGO (35) ended a seven year winning streak by the German runners in the Italian St Leger.

In fact, after watching Spanish Hidalgo run at Nottingham last week, I'm convinced he doesn't truly stay a mile and three quarters. As I see it the only reason he was able to win over the trip in Italy was because the Italian St Leger was a very slow run race indeed. In a more strongly run race at the Chapannelle next time he tired badly. In Britain he did run second over a mile and three quarters to the smart Lion Sands. But again, that was a slow run affair. In the three strongly run races he's tackled locally beyond a mile and a half it looks like he failed to stay.

Last week at Nottingham Spanish Hidalgo looked like a mile and a half horse running against stayers to me. He certainly has more speed about his physique compared with the rugged, deep chested, long striding sorts he was up against.

In the early stages Spanish Hidalgo was clearly going the best. And when he cruised up to dispute the lead three furlongs out it simply looked a matter of how far he was going to win. But over the last two furlongs his effort began to peter out and he tired to finish third.

It may be that Spanish Hidalgo simply blew up through lack of fitness here and that I'm wrong about his distance preference. But my gut feel it was lack of stamina rather than fitness which caused his defeat. So I'm hoping he cuts back to twelve furlongs next time.

It's worth bearing in mind that the only other two British trained winners of the Italian Leger since it was opened to older horses were Assessor and Double Trigger, two seriously good Group 1 winners. Maybe Spanish Hidalgo won't prove that good but I'll certainly be taking a long hard look at him next time out, even if he sticks to a longer trip.

SHE'S A SHAW THING SERIOUSLY FAST

SHE'S A SHAW THING (34) prompted me to tweak the new formula I'm using to assign ratings to two year old races when winning at Nottingham last week. Previously I'd assumed that many two year old races don't produce a fast final time because the horses go too slow in the early stages. Indeed this was the way She's A Shaw Thing ran on her racecourse debut, going slow early then sprinting the last three furlongs to earn a rating of 32 from me.

At Nottingham She's A Shaw Thing showed that two year olds can also go too fast early. She showed blazing early speed and would have been bang there at halfway with the smart older Group horses if she'd run against them in the next race on the card. Now I've decided to look for the fastest three furlongs or so wherever it occurs in a race and base my rating on that for two year olds. This indicates that She's A Shaw Thing is pattern class which looked obvious from the way she buried the Brocklesby winner here.

She's A Shaw Ting did tire a bit in the closing stages and would probably not have done so on faster ground. Her next target is apparently the Lily Agnes at Chester's May meeting. And she's got to have a good chance there seeing that she's already shown she can run really fast around a turn when scoring at Warwick on her racecourse debut.

SONNY RED GETS INTERESTING

Normally I'm hesitant about reporting fast times by British sprinters as there are just so many of them. But I do need to mention the performance of SONNY RED (39) at Nottingham because it seemed to me he actually had a fair bit in hand even though he won narrowly. This big, muscular horse has now won all three times he's run on soft ground and three of the four times he's tried five furlongs. However I'm not yet convinced that he's either a mudlark or an out and out five furlong specialist. I'm rather sure he can produce the same sort of form on a faster surface and over six furlongs.

Sonny Red takes a bit of getting fit according to his handler and this is why he improved a bit from his narrow loss on his seasonal debut.

My gut feel is that Sonny Red has a real shot of proving competitive in the top sprints this season. We should soon find you because he now goes for the Abernant Stakes at Newmarket followed by the Duke Of York at York.

THERE ARE NO HOLES IN THIS DOUGHNUT

Benandonner is not a very big horse. So I think this is probably why his best form has come in races where he's been in a position to avoid traffic problems. In one of his wins he stayed out of trouble by making all the running. In two he was able to do so because there were just nine runners. And last time he turned the trick because he was isolated, racing far clear on his own for much of the way on the far side of the track.

It may also be that soft ground spreads the horses out enough in a race to ensure Benandonner gets a clear run. But clearly there are limited opportunities for him. Most handicaps that he qualifies for over the next few months will feature big fields and fast ground. It may not be until the Autumn that Benandonner finds another race he can win.

Runner-up Regal Parade is somewhat harder to assess. He found himself blocked behind a wall of horses when trying to being a run entering the homestraight. So his jockey switched him to the right and he closed strongly, pushing the winner hard while steadily pulling several lengths clear of the rest. But he kept going to the right as he did so and has shifted his ground before. This leads me to suspect that the reason he was so cheaply purchased at the Horses In Training Sale for a horse with such good form is that he didn't pass the vet. It may be he has leg trouble and needs a slow surface like Fibresand or soft turf to produce his best. He certainly has a somewhat unusual stride pattern.

So far Regal Parade's best form has all been shown in small fields (he's met traffic problems before this run). I suspect that will continue to be the case. Then again it could be that he's simply wanting to go a longer distance than a mile. He was certainly finishing strongly here.

It might also be that Regal Parade is best fresh.

Right now all I have are a few vague theories. I need to see Regal Parade run a few more times before I commit to one of them. All I can say right now is that Regal Parade ran a fast time here and looks likely to win soon.

STRAW BEAR LOOKS INTERESTING FOR PUNCHESTOWN OR AYR

AL EILE (40) deserves all the praise being heaped on him for his fourth win at the Aintree Festival. But his big objective will surely be a fifth win at the meeting next year. So it is the horses that finished behind him which look to hold more immediate interest from a betting perspective.

Runner-up OSANA (36) clearly didn't stay the two and a half miles. This is understandable seeing that he's such a pacey, free running sort. Like a lot of horses that have serious speed I suspect he's going to prove best when fresh. He's always going to have trouble lasting home when taken on for the lead in big fields. But in smaller fields and over two miles you'd have to be pretty brave to bet against him when he's fresh.

STRAW BEAR (35) looked a danger to Al Eile turning for home as he was going really well. But he tired even more badly than Osana and was an even more obvious non stayer. It was a good experiment to see if he stayed. But I doubt that it will ever be repeated. However the run did show that Straw Bear is still in very good form. He's the best hurdler in training on soft ground according to my speed ratings. So if he turns out again at Ayr or Punchestown and gets his ground I'd be very interested in his chances.

Further back in the field MY WAY DE SOLZEN (25) once more showed that he tends to get outpaced on dead flat courses. He still has a tremendous record on undulating tracks. But he's so big I remain convinced he should be going back over fences. Even if he sticks over hurdles though I'd be very interested in his chances at Punchestown should he go there.

BATTLECRY LOOK INTERESTING FOR THE KING GEORGE

I became a big fan of BATTLECRY (23) after watching him put in two tremendous runs in the Reynoldstown and Sun Alliance Chases. In those contests he made a huge move, accelerating powerfully and stretching his rivals for six furlongs or more until tiring late. It made sense that he'd do better on a flatter track, around tighter turns and on faster ground at Aintree. And so it proved.

This time Battlecry was never asked to make a single sustained move. Instead he was allowed to set a moderate pace and then wind it up steadily from halfway. He was always going a bit better than anything else and looked set to win until ploughing through the second last fence. The blunder cost him a lot of momentum and he was quickly joined and then passed by the eventual winner BIG BUCK'S (24).

Battlecry jumped several of Aintree's stiff fences really big, just as inexperienced chasers will often do. Then again it could just be that he's always going to jump this way and will therefore be suited by really stiff fences that claim a high percentage of fallers. Aintree, Ayr, Doncaster, Kempton, Lingfield, Musselburgh and Wincanton are the only such tracks left in Britain. So maybe Battlecry will do well over Irish fences which are stiffer than the British variety, especially at the major tracks, judged by the percentage of fallers.

Right now Battlecry looks to be best on dead flat tracks and on fast ground. This may change as he gains more experience I suspect. In any event, if he turns out again at Punchestown I'll be interested in his chances. And long term the obvious target for him just has to be next year's King George. True, he hasn't yet run fast enough to win a race like that. But he'd probably have earned a rating of 40 from me if there'd been a faster pace and he'd jumped the second last properly. That would make him one of the best novice chasers.

Big Buck's is more the finished article. As I've noted before, he's been crying out for a step up to three miles. Now that he's won on his first attempt at the trip he's obviously a good prospect for big chases next term. It's hard to say for sure what circumstances suit him best. But I'd speculate that he may well prefer relatively flat tracks. I suspect he won't quite be good enough to win a Grade 1 next term. He's twice earned ratings of 39 from me which pegs him around Grade 2 class. But it's possible he'll improve.

VOY POR USTEDES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEMS WITH THREE MILES

Ever since he first ran in Britain I've been banging on about how VOY POR USTEDES (42) is built and bred for longer than two miles and has certainly run like he's been wanting longer. I was not that surprised therefore when he ran away with the Melling Chase when stepped up to two and a half miles for the first time.

Voy Por Ustedes was always going strongly and simply powered away from MASTER MINDED (35) when that one ran out of gas from two out. He was still full of run going past the line and looked fresh as a daisy on pulling up. Seeing that the race was run at a searching end to end gallop that looks highly significant.

I have no doubt at all that Voy Por Ustedes will get three miles. In fact I'm now a bit concerned whether he still might get done for pace in a slowly run race over two and a half miles.

Voy Por Ustedes's dam certainly had plenty of stamina. Her only win came at the longest distance she ever tired, 1m 7f on the flat. Her best other foal was Le Pero. And his top performance also came at the longest distance he ever tried when he was third in a Grade 3 chase over three miles.

This was a most unfortunate exit by Mahogany Blaze in a race that looked tailor-made for him. As I've mentioned Mahogany Blaze is a big handsome horse with obvious stamina problems. He doesn't seem to last home on really stiff tracks like Cheltenham, huge flat galloping courses like Newbury, in races much beyond two miles or in big field handicaps where the early pace is invariably searching. But if one photo had gone the other way he would have won the previous five times he's run two miles on easy courses in fields of 13 or less.

So far Faasel has failed to win in twelve jump starts where there have been less than ten runners. He's won five of the eleven times he's run in bigger fields over hurdles or fences and run big races in five of his six defeats.

In fact since he started wearing headgear Faasel has lost all fourteen times he's run in single figure fields. But if the photo had gone the other way in the Triumph he would have won seven of the eleven times he's run in fields of ten or more.

Faasel is probably best on tight tracks like Aintree. He’s won eight times out of fifteen around tight turns but just two times out of 21 on bigger, galloping courses with sweeping turns. And he does seem to have a particular affinity with Aintree, having won a Grade 1 and run second in two big races the three times he's run at the course.

Here Faasel was going much better than anything else from a long way out and looked to have a real chance before losing ground with a mistake at the last. No doubt he'll be back for another shot at the Liverpool Hurdle next year. Meanwhile Faasel looks a good bet for any race where he encounters more than a single figure field, especially on a tight track.

Further back in the field FLIGHT LEADER (35) ran with some promise. He's run progressively faster with each of his three comeback runs and went really well here. He's a long striding horse with a record of performing best on softer ground than this. So I don't think he was suited by the sprint from four out - or the tight turns come to that. I'd be rather interested in his chances at Punchestown if it came up soft.

BINOCULAR IS GETTING FASTER

BINOCULAR (39) just keeps on running faster and did so again when earning the biggest speed rating I've give a juvenile hurdler all season at Aintree. Once more he showed that devastating turn of foot which has won him his previous starts. This time it saw him blast away from the Triump Hurdle winner CELESTIAL HALO (36) so quickly that his jockey was able to take a look back over his shoulder halfway up the run in.

I tend to divide the top hurdlers into those with a serious turn of foot that win Champion Hurdle trials and those that emphasize stamina more than speed which win the Champin Hurdle itself. At this point I have to say that Binocular is looking much more like a horse that does best in smallish fields in races where his turn of foot is a devastating weapon.

Celestial Halo is obviously much more of a Cheltenham sort. Indeed he almost certainly has far too much stamina to be fully effective at just two miles once he steps outside of the juvenile division next term. He's a big, tall, long striding sort that I can easily see jumping a fence in time. The stats say it will be a year too early to aim him at the World Hurdle next year. But the season after that I suspect we'll be seeing him line up for that and other top staying hurdles.

KAUTO STAR NEEDS TO BE KEPT FRESHER NEXT TERM

One of the problems with races that cut up to a small field is that occasionally all the horses can perform significantly below form. This is what the clock says happened in the totesport Bowl won by OUR VIC (37) from KAUTO STAR (37).

As everyone knows, Our Vic has a terrific record when fresh. He wasn't for this race. And, as we've seen so often before with him, he tired badly from two out and became almost legless with exhaustion. But soon afterwards the same thing happened with Kauto Star as well. The result was that Our Vic was able to rally and get up in a desperate slow motion finish.

Kauto Star has clearly been subjected to too much recent racing. He ran below form in the Gold Cup. Now he's run even further below form here. Next season his connections will no doubt learn the lesson and spread out his runs more like they have in previous seasons. I just hope Kauto Star has not suffered any long term physical effect of this campaign.

FLYING CLARETS HAS A REAL SHOT AT DUNDALK

FLYING CLARETS (38) won on her seasonal debut for the third successive year when scoring at Pontefract. In doing so she earned a Group class speed rating for the second time. She does seem to prefer smaller fields, so it looks like a good idea to step her up to pattern company where small fields are much more common than in the handicaps she’s been contesting. Her next target apparently is the Listed Salsabil Stakes at Dundalk where she should have a serious chance according to my speed ratings. I do hope Paul Hanagan can take the ride as he’s been aboard for all the mare’s five wins and she’s yet to score in seventeen tries for other jockeys.

BIG BOOTS LOOKS PROMISING

There are few fast times recorded in Bumpers. But the Irish raider BIG BOOTS (35) certainly ran one when he blew home by no less than 53 lengths at Ayr. He was ridden out all the way up the home straight and kept on responding to power away from his rivals.

Although Big Boots is built and bred for chasing he does look to have a bit of pace about him. So I see him doing rather well in novice hurdles next year. No doubt the owner’s phone will be ringing off the hook with offers from many of the big stables. Wherever the horse ends up he should be worth following.