DEBUSSY HAS A SERIOUS CHANCE IN DERBY

Epsom's Blue Riband Trial deserves Listed status and has gone to a subsequent Group 1 winner a couple of times in the last decade. That may well prove the case again this year as the winner DEBUSSY (39) is a seriously good horse judged by the clock. He came home a tick quicker than the Group class older horse Duncan in the City & Suburban even though that one did so off a similarly modest early gallop.

Debussy is a powerful, deep chested sort with a big stride that's a bit reminiscent of Lucarno who won the St Leger for the same trainer, John Gosden, after running fourth in the Derby. But I think he's a slightly improved version as he's rather athletic for such a big horse and able to use himself very well.

Debussy impressed me right from the start by responding almost immediately when his jockey asked him to throttle back and drop in after a good start. Not many horses are so tractable after just two lifetime starts. He raced in a close fourth and gradually closed up, moving well, as the sprint up the straight began. He picked up nicely when ridden along by Jimmy Fortune to take the lead about a furlong and a half out and went a couple of lengths clear. Fortune only nudged him along for the final eleven strides which allowed the runner up MIDDAY (38) to close the gap down to a length and a quarter when they hit the line.

Looking at his physique it's easy to conclude that Debussy is going to follow in the footsteps of Shantou and Lucarno who both placed n the Derby for John Gosden before winning the St Leger. His pedigree points the same way. Like Shantou and Lucarno he's by one of the rare modern stallions that has no Northern Dancer blood (rare outside Germany, that is). The absence of this huge influence for speed in a pedigree tends to produce longer distance sorts.

The best three year old run by Debussy's dam came in the Park Hill Stakes (often called 'the fillies' Leger') and four of her six siblings proved they stayed the Leger trip too. The two that didn't almost certainly would have if they had the chance. They include the top class Belmez who won the key Leger prep race, the Great Voltigeur, and would surely have won the final Classic if he'd run at Doncaster instead of in the Arc.

I can see how all this makes Debussy look an ideal candidate for the St Leger rather than the Derby. Indeed, I confess that if someone were offering the same 25-1 and 33-1 for the final Classic that you can now get about the horse for the Derby I'd be really interested. However it's worth bearing in mind that Debussy picked up strongly off a relatively modest early gallop over just ten furlongs here, just as he did when blasting home by nine lengths in a ten furlong Polytrack maiden at Lingfield.

In that race at Lingfield Debussy earned the form book comment 'quickened'. This is highly significant. To win a modern Derby a horse needs to show that it can settle and then win the sprint to the line over the last two or three furlongs. This being so it's not surprising that 12 of the last 13 British-trained Derby winners previously earned the form book comment 'quickened' in some race. Most probably at least three of the last four foreign-trained Derby winners would have earned the same form book comment if form book compilers outside Britain used the same terminology.

As I see it Debussy is far more likely to reach the first four at Epsom than not. The fact that his connections paid 8000 pounds to supplement him for the race combined with the fact he's now run at Epsom pretty much guarantee he'll run in the race. So I'd be inclined to snap up the big odds available about him each way for the Derby before he goes and wins the Chester Vase next time out, which is what I strongly suspect he's going to do.

Runner up Midday kept on strongly and deserves a shot at the Oaks. I recognise it looks like being an unusually strong year for three year old fillies and that there are obvious stamina doubts since she's by Champion sprinter Oasis Dreams. However, while Oasis Dreams has yet to sire a pattern winner over a mile and a half plus he's only had one crop to do it with so far. And this year he's already had two high class three year olds whose physique and form suggests they'll get the Derby trip in Monitor Closely and On Our Way.

Midday clearly improved for the step up to ten furlongs here and will be very interesting if she lines up for an Oaks trial.

I'm not sure it's right to say third placed POPMURPHY (37) disliked the gradients of Epsom. He didn't go wide or lose his position rounding Tattenham Corner. And he didn't get unbalanced on the counter camber up the straight either. I think the reason he looked uncomfortable and had to be driven along from half a mile out was that he had trouble accelerating off a modest pace over a trip that may well be a bit on the short side for him. He certainly stayed on all the way to the line and looks a decent prospect. He's too immature for me to take him seriously as a Derby prospect. But he's at least Listed class on this showing.

STAR RUBY CAN WIN AN OAKS TRIAL

Up until two furlongs out the 3yo fillies maiden won by STAR RUBY (37) at Sandown last Friday looked like being just slightly above average. They reached that point 0.85 seconds later than they had in the Classic Trail over the same trip earlier on the card. But then the winner and HIDDEN BRIEF (35), who'd been running first and second throughout, picked up in tremendous style. They powered eight lengths clear of the rest as they ran the final quarter mile about 1.1 seconds quicker than the colts.

When you see two horses duel in a maiden in the way Star Ruby and Hidden Brief did here and then pull well clear of the rest you can bet good money that their pattern class. And that's certainly what the clock said here.

Star Ruby is a closer-coupled, more agile looking sort than Hidden Brief that's built to produce a decent turn of foot. She used this to put her rival away in the last furlong, winning the race in good style. It was her first ever start, so it's understandable she looked rather green in front and ran across to the rail once clear, causing the second to take up late.

Seeing how strongly she finished I wouldn't have a problem with Star Ruby stepping up to a mile and a half. She's got a bit more size and substance to her than most fillies and looks a good proposition for an Oaks Trial next time out.

Hidden Brief is a long striding sort that got done for a turn of foot by the winner. I'm not sure she'll get beyond the ten furlongs but she would have got about a length closer but for having to be snatched up close home. This indicates she's around Listed class. She'd be a slam dunk to win a maiden but I imagine job one right now will be to earn some black type in one of the many Oaks Trials to be run over the next couple of weeks.

DUNCAN IS GROUP CLASS

The time that DUNCAN (39) clocked up the straight when winning the valuable City & Suburban handicap was two seconds quicker than the winner took in the Great Metropolitan handicap on the same card. This was partly because the early pace was a bit slow but also because Duncan is a group horse according to my sectional timing formula.

Duncan is a big, muscular, good looking horse that looked impressive as he strode clear. He's apparently matured since last year when he kept spoiling his chances by pulling hard. On this run he's in between Group 3 and Group 2 class. The concern is that he could start pulling hard for his head again when he encounters the smaller fields he'll be tackling in pattern company from now on and gets far less cover than he did here. But he's probably grown out of the problem now judged by Gosden's post-race comments. Certainly he'd be a slam dunk to win a Listed race. And, even off a likely welterweight, he'll be hard to oppose in the valuable handicap over this course and distance on Derby day.

RACKETEER SHOULD GO FOR ST JAMES' PALACE STAKES

British three year old handicaps frequently produce future pattern winners in the Spring. And RACKETEER (39) certainly looks likely to be one following his runaway win in the Esher Cup at Sandown. He tracked a leader that set a scorching pace, closed up to lead without pressure quarter of a mile out then came right away when asked to go and win his race in the final furlong.

Racketeer is a muscular, mature, classy looking horse with a fast ground action. And, though he does look built for a mile and is certainly bred that way, my read of his physique is that he might well get ten furlongs as well.

The logical thing to do now is surely to forget about handicaps and steer Racketeer towards the St James' Palace Stakes by way of the Listed Heron Stakes over the same course and distance that he took the Esher Cup. He's quick enough to have a shot at the big Royal Ascot race and would romp the Heron Stakes on this showing.

MALIBU BAY WAS BEST HORSE IN CLASSIC TRIAL

There are far too many big races for my taste where one or more jockeys deliberately manouver their mounts to box in what they see as their main rival and don't let them out till they themselves have kicked clear.

The prime example of this was the 2007 Juddmonte International where Frankie Dettori brought his mount Authorized across to box in Dylan Thomas and then waited till the last furlong to quicken up, surely knowing that his bigger rival needed more time to reach full stride.

As I see it the best horse did not win that day. And the best horse probably did not win last week's Sandown's Bet365 Classic Trial for the same reason. Michael Hills on ABOVE AVERAGE (36) and Richard Hills on TAAMEER (31) seemed as intent on keeping the Irish raider MALIBU BAY (35) boxed in on the rails as they were on winning.

I know this sort of thing isn't strictly against the rules. But shouldn't the rules be designed to ensure that the best horse wins? Doesn't it risk alienating punters when they manage to pick the right horse only for it to get beaten by a morally dubious piece of gamesmanship on the part of some jockey?

Okay I concede it's possible that Malibu Bay wouldn't have won if he'd been able to get out sooner. But he's a big-bodied horse that's built for longer trips. And by the time he was able to be switched out to the centre of the course 150 yards from the finish he was being asked to gain ground into an accelerating pace after the relatively ordinary early gallop.

The most frustrating thing about the result is that we now don't know just how good Malibu Bay is. Would he have been able to pick up and win the race by a couple of lengths if he'd gotten out earlier? Or would he still have been beaten? The difference between the two answers is that between a Group 2 and a borderline Listed horse.

My own feeling is that Malibu Bay would have got up to win narrowly. This suggests that he's Group 3 class but might well be better over a mile and a half.

Malibu Bay is a typical big, strong, really mature Coolmore colt. He won his only previous start at Navan in good style. And it was an odd race because they went a little too fast for the distance on the heavy ground. As a result everything tired badly in the closing stages and this brought out Malibu Bay's obvious stamina. He pulled well clear of the rest with the second and won ridden out.

Malibu Bay has a deep chest so he's almost certainly going to get a mile and a half. I like the way he was able to stick close to the strong pace at Navan and pick up instantly to lead when asked. His dam won an 8.5f Grade 1 and his sole sibling to race has won four six furlong races, so he's obviously bred to have a bit of speed as well as stamina and showed it first time.

It's interesting to note that this was only the second time Aidan O'Brien has had a runner in Sandown's Classic Trial. From what we've seen so far this season it's rather clear that O'Brien has more middle distance Group class three year old colts than he's ever had before. This overflow of talent is causing him to run horses in every available Derby Trial that's going - in Britain, Ireland and France. And it certainly bodes well for his prospects in the English, Irish and French Derbies and the Grand Prix de Paris.

The horse that won the Classic Trial, Above Average, is a well proportioned, medium sized colt that clearly has a decent turn of foot which he used to win this. The clock says he's barely a Listed class horse so I'll be inclined to side against him when he runs in the Dee Stakes or Chester Vase in a couple of weeks. I recognise that he's a lightly raced horse that's already improved dramatically and could do so again. But his physique isn't that of a top class horse, so I'm betting this is as good as he is.

Runner Up BIG BOUND (36) is totally unlike his half brother Pampas Cat. That one was a rather close coupled sort who had a good turn of foot. He is a long-backed, one paced animal with a big, long stride. His jockey used this to good effect when slowly winding up the pace from the front only to get caught close home by a rival with superior acceleration.

I suspect that Big Bound will do better over a mile and a half. But he's too immature and one-paced for me to believe he'll improve markedly on this anytime soon.

Fourth placed SAPTAPADI (33) is also worth a mention. He's a close-coupled horse that shows the most pronounced daisy-cutting action you can imagine. He fairly floats over the ground. He got caught briefly in the same box messrs Hills made for Malibu Bay. He got out a lot sooner but was unable to pick up. In fact the hung and ran green most of the way up the straight. I'm now wondering whether his peculiar stride means he needs a dead flat track as well as lightning fast ground.

Taameer started favourite and moved well for a long way. But he was unable to pick up when the gallop was stepped up. It looked to me that he would have preferred softer ground, a longer trip or a stronger early gallop.

Taameer looked a big boat of a horse on his racecourse debut when finally getting rolling to narrowly beat two pattern class rivals in a hot Newbury maiden after being ridden along vigorously from two and a half furlongs out. To be fair though he did run a little green. So it may just have been inexperience rather than lack of acceleration which made him take so long to pick up.

Next time out Taameer ran in a Group at Ascot where he got boxed in on the rail early in the straight. But a gap opened in plenty of time just a few strides past the two furlong pole. Taameer took it and tried hard to close on the winner Kite Wood. But he just didn't have the acceleration to do so and ended up a length and a quarter down at the line, just as he was quarter of a mile out. Admittedly he did run a little green again, going slightly left and right. But this didn't slow him up noticeably. This time it really was a lack of acceleration that cost him the win.

Trainer Marcus Tregoning clearly has a high opinion of Taameer, and it looks like the horse has done well over the Winter and is in form judged by his recent comments. He said a week or so back "He's had a good winter and he worked very well over a mile the other day. "He's in good form. He's a middle-distance horse and has plenty of potential, so if things go well, you'd hope that races like the Derby would be on the agenda."

The fast going may have been Taameer's biggest problem at Sandown. Tregoning pulled him out of the Feilden Stakes because he was worried whether he'd handle the firm ground. It was just as firm at Sandown. Previously Taameer had only raced on ground with a bit of cut in it

The jury is still out on Taameer. In circumstances that require more stamina he could yet prove to be competitive in top company.

PACO BOY TOUGH TO BEAT IN SMALL FIELDS

Jockey Richard Hughes says PACO BOY (40) had to check twice in the sixteen runner Dubai Duty Free in March. He got a bit squeezed for room when third in the eleven runner Prix du Moulin according to trainer Richard Hannon. And he had a troubled passage in the nineteen runner French Guineas. He's only a medium sized colt and seems to come off worst in the traffic problems which big fields generate. But he's some machine in fields of ten or less. He showed this when winning for the eighth time in eight tries in fields that small when taking the Group 2 Bet365 Mile at Sandown.

The race developed into a sprint over the last three furlongs and that suited Paco Boy fine. He'd shown a terrific burst of speed when winning the Foret last term and was always more comfortable going the increased pace here. He just kept going a little further ahead all the way until the last 75 yards or so where everything started to tire, including him.

Paco Boy has a long, flowing daisy-cutting stride that's designed for fast ground. So although he won the Greenham on good to soft going I'd be wary of betting him in Group 1 or 2 company on anything but a genuinely fast surface. He also has a slightly short neck which raises the question of stamina. It's unusual for horses with short necks to stay beyond seven furlongs. Paco Boy did so here, but off a pace that was 1.6 seconds slower for the first five furlongs than in the class 2 mile handicap run on the same card. When I adjust my rating for the sprint finish it points to another run from Paco Boy that's borderline Group 1 class for the normally weak 7f-1m division. But his physique and the way the race was run keep the doubts about his stamina very much in play.

I'm going to think long and hard before concluding that Paco Boy will get the mile in the Lockinge next time. And if there's a big field or the ground is yielding I'll draw a line through his name without hesitation. I rather suspect that the TV commentator was right to say that if Paco Boy is going to win a Group 1 over a mile it will be the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood. That race normally attracts a small field and is run on fast ground. Throw in the fact that it's run around a tight course and has gone to seven furlong horses in the past and it does look the perfect medium term target.

Last year's 2000 Guineas fifth DREAM EATER (39) ran a big race to finish a close second. He showed no sign of the wayward tendencies that saw him swerve across the track and throw away a win in his seasonal debut at Warwick.

I rather suspect that Dream Eater is best around a turn because he doesn't get enough cover on straight courses and this leads him to hang or pull. If he hadn't swerved at Warwick and bumped into a Group 1 winner here he would now have won both times he's run around a turn. His only win on a straight course came in the biggest field he's ever encountered.

If I'm right Dream Eater won't run this well up Newbury's straight mile in the Lockinge Stakes but will be a solid bet next time he goes around a turn.

VIRTUAL (39) had won over a furlong longer and on soft ground before. So it was no suprise he was less comfortable with the sprint finish. Nonetheless he kept on well to finish a close third, proving that he can act on good ground. I'd have no problem with this very consistent horse going ten furlongs.

TARTAN BEARER AS GOOD AS EVER

TARTAN BEARER (41) showed that he's as good as ever when winning the Gordin Richards Stakes in a sprint finish on his seasonal debut. But it was only his big stride, the uphill finish and the fact that the runner up went for home a tad too soon that enabled him to pull back the big break PIPEDREAMER (41) opened up and nose ahead on the line. It looked to me that he was crying out for a step back up to a mile and a half.

They ran the last three furlongs just half a second slower than Paco Boy managed in the sprint finish for the big mile race. When I adjust for this it indicates a borderline Group 1 class performance from Tartan Bearer.

I'm not sure that Tartan Bearer can win a Group 1 over ten furlongs. So I'll prtobably side against him in the Tattersalls Gold Cup next time. I'm also not yet convinced he has what it takes to win a big Group 1 against serious international competition, even over a mile and a half. Still, he is a fascinating prospect for all the big middle distance races in the rest of the season.

Pipedreamer has only managed one win in eight tries since stepping up to Group company. However he looked like scoring here when bursting three lengths clear before the two furlong marker. He tired in the last 75 yards or so and just got beat, earning yet another very good Group 2 class speed rating from me.

The Group 1 race I'd be shooting for with Pipedreamer if I owned him would be next month's Prix d'Ispahan over nine and a quarter furlongs. After all he scored his biggest win over nine furlongs and may well be best over just shy of a mile and a quarter judged by this run.

Further back in the field I liked the way BUCCELATTI (39) kept on to take third. He's a mile and a half horse and ran like one. He's already gone close in a big international Group 1 over that distance and must have a good shot of taking something decent this term.

There was also a lot to like about the way CHARLIE FARNSBARNS (38) rallied and was full of run at the finish after being squeezed out with two furlongs to run and pulling hard before against the slow early pace. Clearly he needs a stronger pace or perhaps softer ground. And a longer distance would be rather interesting too. He ran seriously fast when beating the high class pair Bankable and Kirklees last Autumn and is still as fast as when he ran second to Authorized in the Racing Post Trophy. I like his chances of winning something big at huge odds in the near future.

REDWOOD THE ONE TO BEAT IN DANTE

The last Derby winner to run in the Feilden Stakes was Erhaab back in 1994. Erhaab was a close coupled, muscular, medium-sized, loose limbed bay colt that was built for a turn of foot. It was hard to tell from his physique just how far he would stay. This year's Feilden winner REDWOOD (40) is a very similar similar type to Erhaab physically, right down to the star on his forehead. And he ran fast enough in winning the Feilden Stakes to suggest he has a very good chance of emulating Erhaab's feat of taking the Dante.

In a strongly run race, Michael Hills bided his time on Redwood till riding him along to take the lead two furlongs out. He had to be kept up to his work from there but kept on strongly and never looked like being caught, eventually winning by two lengths.

The extra furlong and a half of the Dante will suit Redwood admirably. My speed ratings say he's as fast as the average winner of the race and will take some beating. If he does win there the press will no doubt start speculating on whether he'll be supplemented for the Derby. But a more logical and less expensive route would be for him to take up his existing entry in the Prix du Jockey Club. That race is run over the same trip as the Dante, so it avoids the question of whether he'll stay twelve furlongs - as well as the huge supplementary entry fee required to get him into the Derby.

Runner up DRUMBEAT (38) has a long, efficient stride and kept on strongly to chase the winner home. He'd run second by half a length to Fame And Glory in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud on his only previous try beyond a sprint trip. Even though he's won just one of his nine starts he's clearly smart. He also showed here that he doesn't need soft ground to produce his best. I know some knock him for his high head carriage, but he saw his race out well here and looks likely to improve a good deal over longer trips. I'm going to be rather interested in his chances of taking a Derby trial next time.

I liked the way HELIODOR (37) kept going and gained ground slowly but smoothly in the last furlong. I banged on much of last season about how I felt he wanted longer trips. He's now run nothing but good races in four tries over nine furlongs or more. He's certainly capable of taking a ten furlong plus Listed race on this showing.

Fourth placed ON OUR WAY (37) is an enormous horse with a huge stride and absolutely no acceleration. The first three did him for a turn of foot here. But over a longer distance, on softer ground or on a stiffer track (preferably all three) he's probably capable of taking a Group race.

FANTASIA SHOULD DO GREAT OVER TEN FURLONGS

I confess that I thought FANTASIA (38) was well worth opposing in the Nell Gwyn Stakes because her trainer, Luca Cumani, tends to bring his best horses along slowly. He'd run seventeen three year olds in Classic Trials on their seasonal debuts in the previous thirteen years, and they'd all lost. But Fantasia ended that losing run in no uncertain style. She simply bounded away from her rivals in the final furlong, rapidly opening up a big advantage before being eased up in the last fifty yards. I suspect she'd have run fast enough to earn a speed rating of 39 or 40 from me if fully ridden out, and that marks her out as a very smart three year old filly indeed.

Fantasia is a tall, scopey sort that's clearly built for middle distances. So she was helped considerably by the searching early gallop set by ARABIAN MIRAGE (26). That one ran at five furlong pace till weakening just before the last furlong and set the race up for Fantasia.

Like her trainer, I'm not yet sure that Fantasia will stay a mile and a half. But I'm sure she'll be far better suited by ten furlongs than she will by a mile. This race was run at a very strong early gallop into a fierce headwind on a track with an uphill finish. So it was far more of a stamina test than the vast majority of seven furlong races.

I know that it looked like Fantasia was accelerating smartly in the last furlong. But that's simply because her rivals were stopping. To get a better idea of how Fantasia finishes in a more normally run race over this sort of distance I would refer you to the Fillies' Mile where Rainbow View simply swamped her for finishing speed.

The one race I would most want to avoid with Fantasia is the event her connections now seem certain to target. This is the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches (French 1000 Guineas), a contest that features a relatively short homestraight and very often a sprint finish. My bet is that Fantasia just won't get going in time in this race.

The race I'd be aiming for with Fantasia is the now very valuable Preis de Diana (German Oaks) in August at Dusseldorf. The Direktorium have bumped up the prize money significantly for this 11 furlong race and aim to make it a big international contest for the top three year old middle distance fillies in Europe. The distance and Dusseldorf's uphill finish make the race look ideal for Fantasia.

Arabian Mirage is a well proportioned, racy sort who hugged the tight turns at Wolverhampton when setting a fast pace to win a seven furlong maiden there. She went off a bit too fast to last home here. Perhaps she needs tight turns to curb her. But my feeling is that she's built to get a mile or more and would probably do better if ridden with more restraint and tried beyond sprint trips. After all her sibling Tungsten Strike was a Cup horse. In any event, a horse that can lead a top class rival in a Classic trial for six of the seven furlongs has just got to be better than she's shown so far.

SANS FRONTIERES COULD TURN CRAVEN FORM AROUND IN GUINEAS

I am not a big fan of slow run races. Neither it seems is SANS FRONTIERES (36) who ran rather oddly in the Craven Stakes, mostly I suspect because of the slow early gallop.

For most of the race Sans Front was pulling hard and putting his head to the right in an effort to wrest control from his jockey, Johnny Murtagh, and go faster. He was also racing green. When the pace finally picked up and Murtagh rode him along to accelerate he didn't respond. Instead he stuck his head up rather high and slipped back into fourth place. He remained there until the final 150 yards when the sight of the winner, Delegator, charging through and going clear finally seemed to motivate him. He picked up rather strongly and surged into second place but Delegator had already flown.

I know that the bookies and the pundits all seem to assume that Delegator beat the Craven field easily and that Sans Frontieres has little chance of reversing this form. That's not the way I see it at all. I suspect there's little, if anything between the pair, and that Sans Frontieres could easily turn out the best of the pair in a bigger field and off a stronger early pace in the Guineas.

Sans Frontieres is a well proportioned, mature, racy looking sort with a longish, machine-like, daisy-cutting stride that suggests a preference for fast ground and the ability to produce a good turn of foot. He certainly showed that in the closing stages of the Craven, and also on his sole previous start. This was in a really slow run maiden over seven furlongs up the straight at Lingfield.

In that race Sans Frontieres was always moving well but found himself behind a wall of horses. His jockey kept waiting for a gap to open, but as they approached the furlong pole he saw rather too late in proceedings that wasn't going to happen. So he yanked him rather violently to the outside, pulling his head severely to the right. Sans Frontieres responded like an old hand to the severe manouver, came to the outside, found a gap and picked up rapidly, gaining two lengths to hit the front. Unfortunately his jockey just nudged him along from there to retain the narrow advantage to the line. We didn't get the chance to see what Sans Frontieres could have done if asked for a serious effort.

As it is Sans Frontieres ran the last furlong a whopping 1.7 seconds quicker than the winner managed in a much more strongly run race for older horses later on the same card over the same trip. In fact he clocked 11.5 seconds for the final furlong without being pressed, which takes some doing.

Sans Frontieres was supposed to run in the Royal Lodge after his debut win but had to be pulled out at the last minute due to developing a small corn on his right front foot. Trainer Jeremy Noseda said at the time "Although we are disappointed about Saturday, I'm not too upset because this is a project for the future rather than here and now." He said something similar just after the horse's debut win, saying he'd be much better at three than two.

It looks like Noseda is going to be proved right and that Sans Frontieres has a real chance of taking a Group 1 this season.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not knocking DELEGATOR (39). He earned a speed rating that's right up there with the best half dozen Guineas Trial winners of recent years when I take account of the sectional times. The burst of speed he produced to win the race was most impressive.

Delegator is a big, strong, muscular, good-bodied, mature, quite lengthy, classy looking sort with a daisy-cutting stride that's designed for fast ground. He has the build of an out and out miler.

On his debut Delegator moved well and when ridden produced a good burst to surge into the lead over a furlong out. However he then jinked left, lost momentum and got headed before picking up again and closing in the last 75 yards. It looked like he was momentarily spooked by all that daylight in front of him or perhaps the noise of the crowd. But without the jink I suspect he would have won by around half a length, perhaps more, from the useful Wingwalker instead of losing by a length.

Next time out Delegator ran pretty much the same race. But this time he produced two bursts, one to get into the lead, the other to surge rapidly clear soon afterwards. This suggests that he might well have been able to produce a second burst on his first run and win really well but for jinking. Indeed he was probably just starting to do so as they approached the line that day.

In any event, Delegator once more failed to keep straight second time. But this time he didn't lose momentum when drifting both left and right. However his jockey did cause that too happen when easing him heavily rather too soon before the line without looking over his shoulder to notice a fast finishing runner up. This reduced his winning margin from what should have been four or five lengths to only one.

Only a high class horse can produce two or more runs in a race. And the way Delegator simply charged away from his rivals when producing his second burst of speed was very impressive. He looked like a Group 1 horse when doing that. So it was no big surprise he stepped up to Group 1 company next time for the Dewhurst.

In the Dewhurst Delegator was caught rather flat footed when the pace picked up markedly after a couple of furlongs and dropped six lengths behind. It wasn't that he couldn't go the pace, more that he was surprised by the sudden increase in the gallop. This happens a lot the first time a horse runs in Group 1 company. They've grown used to dominating lesser rivals and get taken aback when facing opponents that can also produce a serious burst of speed.

Delegator produced an impressive surge to make up the lost ground, clocking just 10.8 seconds from the two furlong pole to draw level with a furlong to go. But the huge effort told and he flattened out from there while also hanging slightly in both directions as he once more raced with somewhat of a lack of discipline, though not so much as before.

I have no doubt that Delegator is a proper Group 1 horse and that he'll be winning at the top level sometime this season with normal racing luck. He's run more professionally with each of his four starts. Though I should add he did drift right in the closing stages once more here. Clearly he still has a bit to learn. But you could say that of most Guineas winners.

NEEHAM PROBABLY NOT A DERBY HORSE

At first glance the time clocked by NEHAAM (40) in winning the inaugural Tattersalls Timeform 3-Y-O Trophy at Newmarket seems to make him a big player for the Derby. However I am wary of leaping to that conclusion.

I readily concede that Nehaam earned one of the biggest speed ratings I've ever given a three year old in Britain before the Guineas. But this doesn't mean he's some kind of superhorse. The fact is there has never been an early season race for three year olds anywhere near as valuable as the new sales race. It's worth six times as much as any 3YO race previously run in Britain before the Guineas. In other words there's never been a good reason to get a high class three year old fully fit or fully extended this early in the season before. So the basis of comparison is false.

If you look at racing in Dubai or America you'll find that quite a few three year olds run as fast as Nehaam in March and April. Many of them turn out to be only Group 2 rather than Group 1 class.

I should also say that Nehaam just doesn't have the physique of a Group 1 horse. He's rather plain and a bit light-framed. This suggests he may well be best when fresh, which of course he has been on both starts to date.

That said, this was a big run by Nehaam.

Early on Nehaam's rider, Richard Hills, allowed him to drop back through the field into eighth spot after a good start. He was always moving well and started to edge closer from halfway before hitting the front before the two furlong pole. At that stage he was visibly going a good deal more smoothly than anything else. For a few strides it looked like he was going to come right away from his field. He was still a length and a quarter up with seventy five yards left, but it looked like he idled more than tired to me. I say this because he was still moving strongly all the way to the line but the runner up MONITOR CLOSELY (40) was able to narrow the gap quite dramatically in the closing strides to lose by just a head.

Seeing that he's not built very strongly I would have liked to see Nehaam go straight to the Derby off this run rather than take in the Dante which is now apparently the plan. There has to be a big concern he'll need time to recover from this race and that the Dante will come too soon. If, as I suspect, this proves the case and Nehaam runs below form at York and Epsom, I'd bet on him bouncing back once he's been rested.

Monitor Closely is a heavy topped sort that may not have been letting himself down fully on the fast ground when asked for maximum effort in the closing stages. He put his head to one side and edged left but this didn't stop him finishing really well to almost get up late. Then again he doesn't show that much knee action and it could just have been greenness. He certainly showed signs of inexperience early on when throwing his head about until his jockey anchored him in behind rivals.

Monitor Closely won his maiden on yielding ground and finished a close third to the smart Kite Wood on soft. So it's possible he's going to prove the old adage of racehorse trainers that all horses will act on firm ground once. But there's just not enough evidence to say

Despite his pedigree which suggests ten furlongs should be his maximum distance I strongly suspect that Monitor Closely will do best over a mile and a half. He's just too big and strong to be anything other than a 12f plus horse. If he runs in one of the longer Derby trials (i.e. the Lingfield Derby Trial or the Chester Vase) I'll be rather interested in his chances whatever the going. He certainly looks a better prospect for the immediate future than the winner.

ROCKHAMPTON (38) stayed on well to take third. He's typical of the big, strong colts Coolmore tend to produce. He may well appreciate a longer trip but I suspect he's not going to better the Group 3 class performance he produced here. Of the many Group 1 winning three year old colts Aidan O'Brien has trained for Coolmore just two failed to win as juveniles. One was Saffron Walden who finished second in a Group 3 on his only 2YO start. The other was Scorpion who did not race as a juvenile. Rockhampton lost two maiden races as a two year old, and the very fact he ran in this race rather than a regular Derby Trial suggests he's probably in the second division of the admittedly incredibly talented Coolmore squad.

THE MINIVER ROSE (38) established herself as a perfectly valid Oaks candidate by staying on to finish fourth. My feeling from studying her physique is that she may not get much more than the ten furlongs of this race though. The fact that her dam and her six siblings were all 8-10f performers points the same way.

MONSIEUR CHEVALIER DOES IT AGAIN

As a speed ratings enthusiast I'd like to see every winner being fully ridden out so that I had the chance to see exactly how fast they can run. But I'm happy enough with the fast time that MONSIEUR CHEVALIER (35) clocked when coasting home at Newmarket last week as my ratings already suggest he can run a couple of lengths per mile quicker.

As on his debut, Monsieur Chevalier had a bit of trouble going the early pace. But once the strong pace began to tell he moved through smoothly and went clear without much trouble at all.

While Monsieur Chevalier is a muscular, well proportioned mature sort that's built like a miler I must now add that he's not yet fully developed up front. I didn't see this on his previous start due to the camera angle. But seeing him race side on here showed that he actually comes down a bit too heavily in front when he strides out fully. Visit a stud farm and you'll see why this is. Half the yearlings are not fully developed up front. Their back legs seem to grow first, Their front legs look to be shorter, though this is probably simply because the muscles are too weak and can't fully support them as seems to be the case right now with Monsieur Chevalier at present when he's in full stride.

I can see why trainer Richard Hannon wants to avoid running Monsieur Chevalier on fast ground again. In his present state of development he could easily jar himself up or incur a more serious injury. This being so, and seeing that he clearly wants longer, I'd be inclined to lay him off till the Autumn and target him at the Prix de la Salamandre or the Dewhurst. He might well strengthen up considerably by then. He's certainly shown that he's good enough to have a serious shot in those races.

The counter arguement (and it's a very good one) is that Monsieur Chevalier is one of the fastest early season two year olds of recent years and would have a big shot of scoring a Group 1 win in the Phoenix Stakes or the Prix Morny if he's kept on the go.

It's a nice problem to have, and either way I'd say Hannon has a Guineas prospects on his hands in Monsieur Chevalier.

Runner up SOCCER (30) is a mature, good-looking sort with a fast ground action who probably stayed a little too close to a pace that looked a little bit too quick in the early stages. He was totally swamped by the winner in the final furlong but that's no disgrace. He was up against what may well be a Group 1 performer. Basically he was made to go too fast early and was then stretched to breaking point in the closing stages by a freakishly fast rival. In a more normal race I reckon he could well have clocked a pattern class time.

TAZEEZ PROBABLY BEST AT NEWMARKET

TAZEEZ (40) clocked a solid Group 2 class time to win the Earl Of Sefton Stakes in good style. He's a well proportioned, classy looking sort. But he 'lacks self confidence' according to his trainer, John Gosden. I suspect this explains a rather clear pattern that's developed in his form

So far Tazeez has won four of the five times he's run at his home track Newmarket or just up the road at Yarmouth. But he has yet to win in five starts at more distant courses. And the further he's had to travel to the races the worse he's run.

Until he proves me wrong I'm going to bet that Tazeez is a poor traveler and side against him any time he runs anywhere but Newmarket, Yarmouth or Great Leighs (if that track ever gets revived). And it looks like Newmarket is the only place he'll be eligible.

No doubt Tazeez will have a shot at becoming only the second Cambridgeshire winner in the last half century to win a Group 1 in the Champion Stakes at the end of the season. Between now and then there are sadly no more suitable races for him at Newmarket. So, smart as he is, I'd bet on the Earl Of Sefton being the last race he wins this year.

The horse that I'll be taking out of the Earl Of Sefton is fourth placed BARSHIBA (34) who was moving well for a long way but then seemed to find the rail an irresistible attraction a quarter of a mile out. She drifted all the way across the track to get there, ending up a dozen horse widths away from the leaders. She seemed to simply lose interest due to the lack of psychological connection with her rivals and didn't run anywhere near as well as had looked likely earlier in the race. The best analogy I can think of is how greyhounds sometimes stop chasing the mechanical hare when they get too far behind in a race.

It seems to me that Barshiba needs a biggish field to keep her motivated. So far she's won three of the four times she's run below Group class in fields of 11 or more but lost all thirteen times she's run in races with ten runners or less. She's actually fast enough to win a Group race in a big field and I look forward to getting the chance to side with her next time there are enough runners.

GREENHAM AND FRED DARLING WERE WEAK RENEWALS

The clock suggests that the Greenham and Fred Darling Stakes were relatively weak this year. I'd be surprised if they held any significance for either Guineas.

However there were a couple of nice looking fillies in the Fred Darling that stayed on well after meeting traffic problems. I'm talking about SARISKA (32) and LASSARINA (32) who ran fourth and fifth. Both are built and bred for longer and look the two to take out of the race.

MONSIEUR CHEVALIER HAS A MAJOR SHOT IN THE COVENTRY

MONSIEUR CHEVALIER (37) took over the mantle of fastest two year old when running away with a maiden at Folkestone. Not only did he clock a fast time, he also covered the last three furlongs 1.4 seconds quicker than decent older sprinters managed later on the same card. The performance earns Monsieur Chevalier a rating that puts him just one to three lengths per mile off the best rating earned by the vast majority of Champion two year olds.

Early on Monsieur Chevalier had a bit of trouble going the pace. But his stamina started to come into play with a quarter of a mile left to run and he began to forge clear despite running a bit green and lazily and drifting right.

Monsieur Chevalier has an unusual pedigree for a modern racehorse in that he’s by a sire that would almost certainly have been a mile and a half horse if he’d stayed in training at three out of a five furlong sprinter. The bloodstock market has a curious belief these days that horses get their stamina from the dam. This contradicts all known science on the subject of heritability but breeders tend to accommodate it to ensure they get the best prices for their yearlings.

Actually there is a bit of stamina on the dam’s side of Monsieur Chevalier’s pedigree too (his dam is a half sister to the smart 7-8f runner Rockets ‘n Rollers). So it’s no surprise he has the build of a miler. He’s actually unusually muscular, tall and mature for a juvenile and already looks like a three year old.

There has to be a danger that Monsieur Chevalier is going to get badly outpaced in the early stages when he steps up to pattern company over the short trips currently available to him. But he’s so much better than the vast majority of early season two year olds that his class may well pull him through. As I write this he’s set to line up for a Conditions race at Newmarket that his trainer, Richard Hannon, has won with the last three experienced youngsters that he’s started. I’d be very surprised if Monsieur Chevalier hasn’t made it four in a row by the time you come to read this.

RED AVALANCHE A SMART PROSPECT

I noted after his first start that I rated STAR ROVER (36) the best two year old to have run in Britain so far. But I thought I'd uncovered a rank outsider that had a serious shot of turning him over in a Novice Stakes at Nottingham.

The horse in question was RED AVALANCHE (34) trained by Paul Cole who does very well with the few two year olds he brings out this early in the season. He has far more firepower than the vast majority of trainers who focus on early season juvenile contests, thanks to rich owners who provide him with scores of high priced yearlings.

Cole has plenty of juveniles to pick from. So when he runs a two year old this early you have to know it's showing him plenty at home. And when he runs it for the second time before May it just has to be good.

Over the last thirteen years Paul Cole had run five two year olds for a second time before May. Three of them won, one ran second to a subsequent Group 1 winner and the other finished third. Both the losers own next time out.

The form book says that Red Avalanche was 'very slowly away' when he ran ninth to Star Rover at Kempton first time. But that's not what I saw when I re-watched the video several times. He actually jumped almost on even terms with everything else. It was a stride or so after the start that he began to lose the ground. He took a look at his rivals all shifting towards the rail and didn't like what he saw. He backed off, putting his head right up and his ears flat back. He seemed hugely disinclined to involve himself in the heavy traffic ahead of him and would not fully extend himself despite his jockey scrubbing him along. He raced in last place, moving easily and clearly not running as fast as he could.

Red Avalanche did not handle the transition from the bend into the homestraight well at all, getting a bit unbalanced and going wide. But then, when they straightened up and had been racing dead straight for a while, he finally consented to run, picking up strongly in the last furlong. Rounding the home bend he was a length behind the next to last horse. Hitting the line he was five lengths ahead and closing in rapidly on the two horses immediately in front of him, despite not being ridden very hard. He was still moving strongly at the finish.

Red Avalanche is a close coupled, muscular, mature, useful looking sort that looked likely to improve markedly for the switch to a straight course here. His physique and the way he ran suggested he was useful. And his trainer's record said he could well be fast enough to give the hot favourite a real race.

Sure enough Red Avalanche took Red Rover on up front right from the start and the pair soon had everything else in trouble. However Star Rover is clearly quite some sprinter as he picked up strongly to cover the last three furlongs a couple of ticks quicker than pattern class older sprinters did in the next race. Red Rover couldn't quite go with him and finished a good second.

Star Rover once more edged left in the closing stages but straightened out in the last 100 yards, suggesting that he's learning. He remains a close-coupled speedball that looks unlikely to get beyond five furlongs. But he's clearly very hard to peg back over the minimum distance.

Red Avalanche is a more substantial, classier looking sort that's built to get six furlongs. He's clearly pattern class and looks a fair prospect for Royal Ascot. No doubt he'll be long odds on if he runs in a maiden next time. But he's fast enough to be worth following in better company after that.

WEIGHT MADE THE DIFFERENCE FOR MON MOME

The great nineteenth century gambler 'Pittsburgh Phil' once said "no amount of weight within the handicapper's compass can bring a good horse and a bad horse together."

My research and that of others suggests Pittsburgh Phil was right. That's why I've never taken weight differences into account when making speed ratings.

However the flip side of Phil's assertion is that weight swings between horses of comparable ability can make the difference between victory and defeat. And it is now looking horribly likely that the result of the 2009 Grand National, and every one of the last 25 Grand Nationals, was affected by this.

In the old days there were invariably only two or three runners in the Grand National set to carry what now seems the critical mark of 11-2 or more. A large number of the other runners were moderate horses that were out of the handicap, quite often by a huge margin. They carried the minimum weight allowed of ten stone. But they would have carried a stone and a half or more less if they'd been able to run off the mark the handicapper actually gave them.

Up to 1983 it was a lot easier for a horse to carry 11-2 or more to victory in the Grand National. It would normally only face one or two rivals of comparable ability, and those rivals might well fail to complete the course or stay the distance. They'd be left to beat a bunch of inferior opponents, many of whom were racing on hugely unfavourable handicap terms.

Since 1983 things have changed. The Grand National has become steadily more valuable. It now offers about four times as much prize money when you allow for inflation. In addition the fences have been made easier and the handicapper has deliberately been lenient with better class horses in an effort to attract more of them into the line up.

The combined impact of all these factors has drawn in better horses and seen the average number of Grand National runners set to carry 11-2 or more jump from 2.3 in the period from 1988 to 1999 to 8.3 over the last decade. Twenty six horses have carried that much or more in the last two runnings. And since 2004 there hasn't been a single Grand National runner that's been out of the handicap.

Modern Grand Nationals now feature 25 or 30 runners that are basically only carrying 11-2 or less by happenstance rather than any lack of ability. Most of them are at least as good as those set to carry 11-2 or more. And the weight concession between these horses of comparable ability is telling.

Since 1983 there have been 103 Grand National runners that carried 11-2 or more. Actually I'm estimating the high weighted runners before 1988. There have been 95 that carried 11-2 plus from that year. In any event, all the National runners carrying that much since 1983 have lost.

In the other 38 Grand Nationals since WW2 twelve horses carried 11-2 or more to success from about 87 attempts if that pre-2000 average of 2.3 held - meaning you'd have made a big profit just betting all the horses carrying that much.

That run of success by horses carrying 11-2 or more was no statistical blip. 40 of the 99 Grand Nationals run as handicaps before the end of WW2 also went to horses carrying 11-2 or more. From 1865 to 1983 there was never a run of more than seven Grand Nationals where no winner carried 11-2 or more. Since 1983 we've had 25 Grand Nationals in a row where this has happened.

Every physical system has a hysterisis, a clear tipping point where its performance undergoes a drastic change. For modern Grand Nationals that point seems to be eleven stone and two pounds. The single extra pound above 11-1 appears to be the equivalent of the straw that broke the camel's back.

I give this preamble to explain the sight of MON MOME (40), carrying 11-0, running away from COMPLY OR DIE (37), MY WILL (37) and STATE OF PLAY (36), all of whom carried 11-2 or more, in the closing stages of this year's Grand National.

A smart trainer once said that weight only starts to show in the final quarter mile of a race. That certainly seemed to be the case in this race. With a quarter mile to go Mon Mome's rivals looked to have a shot. But then he quickly opened up on them to finish a dozen lengths ahead by the finish.

You may question whether weight really made the difference for Mon Mome or the previous 24 Grand National winners. But whatever way you slice it, the dreadful run of high weighted horses just has to start affecting the quality of runners in the Grand National.

Up till now the organisers of the big race have done a fantastic job of attracting more and more high class horses to take part. But sooner rather than later they're surely going to become the victims of their own success. Owners and trainers are going to start asking themselves what is the point of training a top class steeplechaser specifically for the Grand National if it is going to be assigned a weight that no horse has carried to victory in a quarter of a century?

The solution is obvious. If the Grand National is to continue attracting high class horses the spread of weights carried by the runners must be compressed. If it isn't changed to a Conditions race or a Limited handicap its quality is going to start dropping.

I know that many people wondered about the pace in the Grand National. Several e-mailed me asking me if the reason 15 horses were able to approach the second last in a tight bunch is because the early pace had been really slow.

I wondered this myself. But I found that if you clock the last six Grand Nationals and adjust for the apparent going you get the following which shows when the leader jumped Bechers for the second time;

1: Numbersixvalverdie

2: Amberlieigh House 1.28 seconds later

3: Mon Mome 5.63 seconds later

4: Hedgehunter 7.27 seconds later

5: Silver Birch 8.15 seconds later

6: Comply Or Die 11.84 seconds later

So it looks like the early pace was just average not slow this year. And I don't think it's a case of modern Nationals being more slowly run. The leader reached second Bechers 12.64 seconds behind the leader in Numbersixvalveride's year when Mr Frisk set the course record. Records are generally set when there is an even pace. So I think anything going faster to second Bechers than the leader did in his year is going too fast to clock the best possible final time. That seems to happen pretty much every year, endorsing the tactic employed by so many winning riders in the race of hunting around for the first circuit, when the leaders go too fast, and then getting involved from halfway.

Out of curiosity I timed the Youtube video of the National where Crisp set that scorching pace before going under to Red Rum. It's edited and only shows the full race from two out. At that point, when you adjust for the going, Crisp was 6.1 seconds ahead of the leader in Numbersixvalveride’s year. Bechers is over three and a half times further away from the finish. So if he enjoyed the same proportional advantage Crisp would have jumped second Bechers 23.1 seconds ahead of the leader in the National which featured the fastest early pace of the last six runnings. That's huge. No wonder he was legless on the run in.