ORANGE TOUCH RUNS A GROUP 1 TIME

Yikes, how good is Orange Touch? He dotted up by six lengths the first time he stepped up to a trip beyond ten furlongs at Newmarket. Now he's gone and romped the March Stakes at Goodwood by no less than eleven lengths from a very strong field.

Orange Touch is German bred, and German horses invariably stay a whole lot better than those bred elsewhere. So you could argue that on soft ground at a mile and three quarters he was the only runner that really got the trip. But whatever the reason, the clock says this was a huge run by Orange Touch.

Johnny Murtagh rode Orange Touch and trainer Amanda Perrett said that he told her to run the horse in the Irish Leger as soon as he dismounted in the winner's circle. She reportedly said that might be a bit too ambitious but my speed figures say she ought to listen to Murtagh. If Orange Touch runs in the Irish Leger I would not want to oppose him.

Orange Touch has posted his two impressive wins on soft ground. But I think it's almost certainly the longer distance rather than the ground that's wrought the improvement. His breeder apparently warned against running him on anything but fast ground. That's hardly surprising seeing he's by Lando, who hated even a tiny drop of moisture in the ground. I reckon Orange Touch will be able to reproduce this form on a firm surface. The intriguing question is whether or not he'll be able to reproduce it over two furlongs shorter. If he can then races like the Arc, the King George and the Breeders' Cup Turf should be logical targets for him next season. If he turns out to be a stayer then the Melbourne Cup looks a very interesting proposition. Right now, if I were Amanda Perrett I'd be entering Orange Touch for the Irish Leger, the Breeders' Cup, the Canadian International, the Japan Cup and the Hong Kong Vase. My ratings say he's that good.

CHIC (42) also ran a big time when taking the Celelbration Mile on the same card. She ran as fast as most Group 1 winners have this term and has clearly improved. It could be that the slower ground has helped her. It may also be that she's best on straight courses or small fields like this seeing how often she's hit traffic problems in bigger fields around a turn. In any event, the Sun Chariot stakes looks to offer Chic a great opportunity to score her first Group 1 win.

Over at Newmarket on the same day BORDER CASTLE (39) posted a solid Group class time to beat the useful ZERO TOLERANCE (37) at Newmarket. The amazing thing is that this was the three year old's first run of the year. No doubt Border Castle will be running in Group company soon enough. Right now he can still get into handicaps, so trainer Sir Michael Soute must surely be thinking of taking down a big prize with Border Castle soon. I note with interest that he has the horse entered up in the valuable John Smith's stakes at Newbury on September 18th. The weights are already out for that race and Border Castle has been rated on his old form and assigned bottom weight of 7-8. The danger now of course is that he'll miss the cut. But if he makes the line up that race is surely at his mercy.

ANCIENT WORLD (42) ran a huge race to beat the very smart Gateman at Windsor. I don't know why he ran so poorly at Salisbury on his previous start. It could well be that race came too soon after his big Goodwood win. His connections put the sticky ground at Salisbury down as the reason for his loss. But it was the same going at Windsor by my estimates. In any event, Ancient World ran a Group 1 time here and is clearly a very useful horse. Races like the Eclipse and Juddmonte International next season look like logical targets. This season I'd like to see him given a shot at Group 1 company over ten furlongs.

POSTERITAS (37) won a Listed race at Yarmouth and could well be a decent filly. She's now won two of the three times she's gone a middle distance. Her only loss came in a fantastically hot race behind INTO THE DARK at Newmarket. The winner earned a Group 3 speed figure from me in that race and the form has worked out incredibly well. In fact, if Lost Soldier Three hadn't been squeezed for room on his next outing and lost narrowly, the first four home would have won all five of their subsequent starts. Into The Dark, I note with interest, is entered in the St Leger. It's also interesting to note that Into The Dark is the only Leger entry that passes the five stamina points test I use to identify likely winners of the final classic - a test that 28 of the last 34 Leger winners have passed.

Gerard Butler doesn't often miss when he runs a two year old in a Scottish maiden race, and he took his record up to 9 wins from 18 with CYCLICAL (33) at Hamilton the other day.

Cyclical ran a rating only four lengths a mile off the fastest I've awarded to a juvenile so far this year despite getting off to a slow start and winning with what seemed to be something in hand. It looks likely therefore that he is capable of improvement. The race I'd be shooting for if I owned him would be the Flying Childers at Doncaster's Leger meeting. He'd have a real chance in that Group 2 race, and if he's kept below Group class next time I'd rate him a good thing.

YAJBILL (31) is another two year old that looks worth following. He showed seriously improved form according to my speed ratings to take a Birghton maiden. Birghton maidens are normally weak and Yajbill has already earned an official rating of 81. So I'm betting that the handicapper is going to use that as a guide. This will mean Yajbill will be eligible for an ordinary nursery handicap where he'd make a pretty decent bet.

Runner-up OLIGARCH (31) looks even more interesting. He's bred to go further than the six furlongs of this race and finished strongly to go under by just a neck. This was his racecourse debut and my studies show horses invariably improve at least three points on my ratings for their debut. That makes Oligarch look like a potential pattern winner like his half brother who won the Soalrio stakes. He looks like a good thing to win a maiden next time out even if he sticks to six furlongs. At seven he'd be even more interesting.

The fastest two year old time of the past week was put up by Chic's half sister ECHELON (34) who won on her racecourse debut at Newmarket. My ratings say Echelon ran a Group 3 time here. Most horses improve a good deal on their debut run, so the top fillies races all look logical targets for Echelon now.

Runner-up NEWSROUND (31) was also making his racecourse debut and ran a time that would win plenty of Listed races. He'll surely be odds-on if he sticks to maiden company next time. But he might well be a betting proposition in a Listed or Group race.

Our old friend COLEORTON DANCER (32) is another juvenile who earned a pattern class speed rating from me on the same card. He took the nursery, validating the indications from his pedigree that a softer surface and a longer trip than five furlongs would suit him. Coleorton Dancer has run a bit quicker than this previously and is well capable of taking a Group race. So MARCHING SONG (31) did well to get to within half a length of him.

Marching Song is a typical Richard Hannon two year old in that he's improved for racing -something confirmed by his jockey, who said that he's only just coming to himself. With normal racing luck he should be capable of taking one of the more valuable nurseries or perhaps a Listed race.

There are a whole mess of fast sprinters in Britain, so I'm always wary of nominating one as a horse to follow. Nonetheless SPANISH ACE (38) ran so fast in such a low grade race that I just have to put him forward. His trainer, Andrew Balding, says he bounced back to form because of a hood and ear plugs being applied. I suspect the small field helped more though. After all, why was Spanish Ace bothered by the noise of other runners in the first place. Fear of crowding is surely the answer. In this regard it's interesting to note that Spanish Ace has reached the first two four times out of five at less than seven furlongs in what my research says counts as a small field (11 runners or less) but has not reached the first four in seven tries in bigger fields. Therefore I'd like to see Spanish Ace go for another conditions race next time. In a handicap I'd bet on claustrophobia beating him.

Runner-up DEVISE (38) was unlucky to come up against a revived Smokin Beau in his last two starts. He was unlucky once more to encounter a horse unusually fast for the class here and went down narrowly for the third time in a row. He's in such form that surely he'll find a race soon - especially seeing that he seems able to run his race on any track or going as long as the trip is five furlongs.

At a much longer distance SENDINTANK (36) showed that he's tough to get by on a slow surface when winning at Newmarket. This was the sixth time he's won in six tries on Fibresand or soft or heavy turf at 12 furlongs or more. He's almost certainly capable of going a bit faster, so I'd be wary of opposing him in any sort of race if the current wet weather holds and the ground stays soft.

DIKTATORIAL EQUALS FASTEST 2YO TIME

How good is DIKTATORIAL (37)? he ran away with a Sandown maiden over seven furlongs, equaling the biggest rating I've given a two year old all season in Europe. He did this despite hanging all over the place. With more experience he should learn to run straighter and faster.

I don't know what plans are in store for Diktatorial. But I'd expect to see him win a Group 1 race in the next month or two.

SURAWAKI (31) and GLEN IDA (31) were beaten a long way into second and third. But I'd expect to see them franking this form by winning maiden races next time out as they both ran quicker than the average maiden winner.

Another Group class time by a two year old was that recorded by CUPID'S GLORY (35) at Chester. He won by a pretty big margin, just as he had on the Polytrack last time. His pedigree says he ought to improve over seven furlongs (this was six). I can see him winning something like the Horris Hill stakes at Newbury and suspect his trainer, Sir Mark Prescott, is going to have to revise his apparent plan to win the string of minor races that he's currently entered for.

Windsor Knot (36) earned a speed rating well up to the Group 3 standard of the Solario stakes. But, as Diktatorial showed, there are a lot of fast juveniles which have yet to tackle Group company yet. So things are going to get a lot tougher for Windsor Knot from now on. Fast as he is, I therefore can't quite recommend following him.

Sometimes a slow time can tell you as much about a race as a fast time. This is probably the case with the first day of the big York meeting held recently. The jockeys at this meeting who were interviewed early on all seemed to believe that the going was soft when my going allowance showed that it was actually good to firm. The jockeys rode to their belief and had their mounts go an early pace that would have been correct on soft ground but was way too slow on good to firm. They only seemed to learn the error of their ways after the first four races, since the times of the remaining contests indicated they were truly run throughout.

The chief sufferer of the slow early pace in the Juddmonte International was almost certainly BAGO (29). Bago had shown last time out that he could get caught flat-footed in a slow run race by a rival with instant acceleration. His old rival Cacique was able to open up a four length break on him which he only closed down very late. Here a similar thing seemed to occur. Bago was scrubbed along when the pace quickened and only got rolling too late.

You could argue that the way Bago has run in his last two races suggests that the original plan to run him in mile and a half races was correct and that ten furlongs is a bit short for him. Another equally valid view is that he's basically running like a dirt horse on grass. The top dirt horses do not have instant acceleration. Like Bago, they can produce a prolonged surge which takes a while to build up to. In a slow run turf race they can get caught out as Bago was here. In this regard it's interesting to note that there are a whole mess of dirt runners on Bago's dam's side while his sire Nashwan produced Swain who narrowly lost the world's two most valuable dirt races - the Dubai World Cup and the Breeder's Cup Classic.

The problem for Bago is that every jockey now knows how to beat him on turf. They simply have to set a slow pace and then kick. For this reason, if he were mine, I'd forget about the Irish Champion stakes and run him instead in the Jockey Club Gold Cup on dirt at Belmont Park in New York. Then again, Godolphin have a habit of putting in a pacemaker, and with their Irish Champion stakes runner Doyen cutting back to ten furlongs they will surely want to ensure a strong pace at Leopardstown which would of course help Bago tremendously.

In any event, it all goes to show that no horse is unbeatable. Secretariat got beat, Nijinsky got beat, Mill Reef got beat. And now Bago has got beat. I still believe that Bago may well be one of the best horses we've seen in years. He's done some extraordinary things in his races - earning the fastest speed figure I awarded a juvenile last season, the biggest speed ratings I've awarded any horse this year and running an astonishing 21.7 seconds for the last quarter mile last time out (the fastest final two furlongs I've ever heard of). Okay, we now know Bago has an Achilles heel that smart jockeys can exploit. But his connections now know it too.

The only time worth noting from the first two days of the York meeting was that run by ENCHANTMENT (38) who I've mentioned here before. Enchantment again showed she is pattern class by running away with a good sprint handicap. I don't know where she goes from here, but Enchantment still looks worth following.

The next day Bahamian Pirate (41) beat the same old band of regulars that have been infesting the top sprints this season. He earned a speed rating that several handicappers have beaten this term in sprints, so I can't recommend following him or any of those he beat.

MERCHANT (32) romped a York nursery by seven lengths in Listed class time. We've been seeing some unusually fast times in nurseries this season (e.g. Coleorton Dancer and Nova Tor). I don't quite know why. I suspect Britain is moving closer to the situation in Ireland where nurseries have been better contested than in Britain in the past. Over there it's not unusual to see pattern class horses run in handicaps at two. It looks like the British nurseries are following suit. This makes sense, as my research says early season three year old handicaps in Britain have steadily been attracting more pattern class runners in recent years. In any event Merchant looks likely to win again pretty soon.

TOPKAMP (37) obviously appreciated the step up to a mile and a half when winning a Salisbury handicap in fast time. This David Elsworth trained three year old is by the good hurdles sire Simply Great. Seeing that Elsworth usually has a decent juvenile hurdler, it would be very interesting to see this over timber where he might well develop into a Triumph hurdle candidate. However, it appears that his major objective is next year's Ebor. He showed that he has the talent for that sort of race her, running a Listed class time, and looks likely to win again soon. In fact, it looks like he'll still be eligible for class D handicaps after this run. At that level I can't see him getting beat.

Runner-up CIRCASSIAN (36) was another maiden stepping up in distance in handicap company. Sir Mark Prescott frequently scores with this maneuver but Circassian bumped up against a very smart opponent in Topkamp here. I note with interest that Sir Mark has the horse entered in a whole bunch of upcoming handicaps. Clearly he intends to exploit Ciurcassian's current ludicrously low official handicap mark. I can see him placing Circassian to win several races in a row.

On the same day Norton (38) won a hot class C handicap at Sandown. He'll be forced to tackle better company after this so is probably not worth following. Runner-up LITERATIM (37) looks the horse to take out of the race. This Cumani-trained four year old has only had four runs and stayed on well to get to within three parts of a length of Norton. He could be anything and ran fast enough here to win in higher class.

At Chester ZONUS (38) continued the season's big theme of pattern class times by three year olds in handicaps. He sluiced up by five lengths from a smart field of older horses. His jockey put the improvement down more to the soft ground than the first time blinkers, and looking at the horse's pedigree, that would seem to be the most probable explanation. Certainly Zonus should be able to win again soon if the going stays squidgy.

TAKE THE STAND IS ONE OF THE TOP CHASERS

There has been a significant increase in the number of valuable Summer jumps races staged in recent years. One of them, the Lord Mildmay Memorial Chase at Newton Abbot, attracted a seriously strong field. It was routed by TAKE THE STAND (43) who put up a huge performance, earning a Gold Cup class speed rating from me.

Take The Stand's form seems to be dictated by a recurring back problem. Chasers really have to bend their backs when they jump fences and a high percentage of them suffer from back problems as a result. The only thing that helps is rest in between their races. If they're not given a break of six weeks plus their backs normally haven't had time to recover from the last chase and they jump poorly as a result. This appears to have happened to Take The Stand a few times. But he's now won all five times he's run over fences when he's come into the race six or more weeks after his last completed chase start.

Take The Stand's next target is apparently the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury in November. If he's kept fresh for that race I wouldn't want to oppose him.

At the same meeting MARCEL (37) maintained his unbeaten UK record when running away with a novice hurdle. He's now looking a good deal better than an early season sort, so I suspect Pipe will put him away till the bigger prizes for novice hurdlers start appearing in October. If he's kept on the go he should extend his winning sequence.

PRINCESSE GREC (37) added to to number of unusually smart novice chasers we've seen in the off season when taking a handicap chase at Worcester in fast time. But for a couple of narrow losses Princesse Grec would be unbeaten in six starts this year. She ran off a mark of just 88 here and looks ludicrously well handicapped despite all her wins. For this reason she will no doubt be kept to handicaps for the immediate future where I'd be wary of opposing her.

LUCKY STORY IS BACK

The Sovereign Stakes at Salisbury only had a Group 3 grading from the pattern committee but it was good as most of the Group 1's for older horses that we've seen this year. NORSE DANCER (42) won the race, validating the idea that he's at his best on 'switchback' tracks like Epsom, Goodwood and Salisbury.

Norse Dancer is now being aimed at a quick return in the Juddmonte International. I hope he starts there because I'd like to see another loss in his record to build the odds for when he returns to another switchback track, Goodwood, for the Celebration Mile on August 28th.

Norse Dancer is good enough to take an ordinary Group 1, and he needs to in order to be sold for a decent sum as a stallion. So I suspect we'll be seeing him again next year for another shot at the Sussex stakes. That seems the race most likely to earn him the Group 1 win he needs. He's gone close in the last two running's and must have a real shot of making it third time lucky in 2005.

LUCKY STORY (42) ran a huge race off an eleven month break to go under by a mere short head. His trainer and jockey are convinced he will come on for the run. That means he's going to be one tough horse to beat in the QEII next time out.

HURICANE ALAN (40) ran his usual sort of big rating to finish third. As is normal for him in a big field, he had to be switched when making his run. I remain convinced that he is pretty much unbeatable in a very small field (i.e. seven runners or less) and that he might well spring a major shock in a Group 1 where the field cut up.

PASSING GLANCE (40) like the winner seems to love switchback tracks. He's run a tad quicker, and might have just needed the run - since he'd been off for nearly two months before his next to last start. He's just been sold to the National Stud. So his last remaining shot at Group race glory comes in the Celebration Mile as well. Then again, the National Stud have been known to keep a horse like this in training. That might be a smart move with Passing Glance because he's good enough to take a Group 1 and that would boost his popularity at stud immeasurably.

I confess that I am not fond of sprinters. But I have to make note of SMOKIN BEAU (42) who bounced back to his very best to run away with the prestigious Great St Wilfred handicap at Ripon. He's looking rather interesting for the Ayr Gold Cup now which is apparently his target. A Group race would be well within his compass on this form. I can see him winning the Prix Abbaye at a monster price for example.

An old sprinter that's already won the Abbaye is CONTINENT (42) who roared right back to his best to take a hot conditions sprint at Nottingham. I may be over-interpreting his form here, but it seems to me he's needed good or softer ground these past three seasons and is at his best from mid July onwards. He's won four of his last five starts in these circumstances and looks to have a real chance of winning the Abbaye again on this run - especially if the ground has a bit of cut in it on the big day. It's a shame Continent wasn't in the Nunthorpe a few days after this run. He would have had a real chance.

At as somewhat lower level, WUNDERBRA (36) looks to be a sprinter worth following. She won in unusually good time for a low grade handicap at Windsor and is capable of winning in slightly better company according to my ratings. She's won two of her three starts and run close in the other since switching back to turf.

Runner-up SKYHARBOR (36) showed improved form on his first run for his new stable. He'd be something of a good thing for a class D handicap sprint next time on this run.

The fastest two year old colt according to my speed ratings is Afrashad who started his career on the Polytrack. Now SUMORA (36) another Polytrack debutante has gone and earned the biggest speed figure I've awarded a juvenile filly to take a very warm Listed race at Newbury.

Sumora's next target apparently is the Flying Childers at Doncaster. She'll be tough to beat there.

NOTJUSTAPRETTYFACE (32) ran a good race to finish fourth following a two month break. She ran a bit quicker on her debut and may well have needed this. Looking at her pedigree it looks likely she'll improve for a longer trip as well. She remains an interesting prospect for the Chevelely Park stakes.

NOVA TOR (33) is another two year old filly worth noting. She ran a solid pattern class time to take a Newmarket nursery. It could well be that she only just gets the minimum distance. So I'm a bit concerned that her next entry is at Sandown, seeing how she failed to get the five furlongs at Beverley which has an uphill finish like the Esher course. That said, it's tough to interpret the form of a lightly raced horse. All I can really say is that Nova Tor is very fast and ought to be followed.

The two year old colts produced a pattern race candidate recently as well in COLEORTON DANCER (35) who won a Nottingham nursery by a wide margin. He'd won in a similar style on his on his previous start, after which his trainer had this to say; "We gelded him after his last run, and that seems to have made the difference. He was a maniac in the paddock at Chester last time, and in his races he was the sort of horse who wanted to do everything too quickly. He settled much better there and won like a decent horse."

Coleorton Dancer highlights one of the problems of the handicap system. The handicapper can only rate a horse on what it has beaten. So, if by happenstance it runs a string of moderate races and then its connections discover why, it can end up in cheap races such as those Coleorton Dancer has been contesting. In this instance, it looks likely that if Coleorton Dacner sticks to handicap company it will be several runs yet before his official ratings reflects something like his true ability. I'd say he's set to win again, whatever type of race he contests next time. He's won both times very easily since being gelded and is Group class according to my ratings.

CHIC (40) won the Hungerford stakes in decent time. She's clearly very well suited by the seven furlongs of the race. So the Prix Foret looks a logical target, seeing how that race is so often a very soft Group 1.

NEW MORNING (40) has run well against some of the top fillies at 11 and 12 furlongs this season. But she clearly improved on my numbers for the cut back to ten when winning a strong Listed race at Salisbury. Michael Jarvis says he's now convinced she is a better horse over ten furlongs just like her half sister, Islington, and that seems clear from her speed figures. Her next target apparently is the Blandford stakes at the Curragh. There are a lot of smart fillies around this year, but she ought to be hard to beat there. She showed herself to be one of the top three year old fillies here. Top fillies like Ouija Board, Lune D'Or and Latice have only earned one point bigger ratings.

TAHTHEEB (39) was unlucky to come up against such a smart opponent in a mere LIsted race and ran well to finish a good second. She ought to be able to win a Listed race herself with ease and is well up to Group standard on my ratings.

SNOW GOOSE (37) was my idea of the winner following her smart run against another top pair last time. She ran fast again here and I like the run from a betting point of view because on a bare read of her form she doesn't look that impressive, having lost six in a row and never scored in pattern company. This means she could well start at tempting odds in pattern company next time. She'd win most Listed races easily, so I'd love to see her at the same level next time.

JEEPSTAR (38) did zip in his first few starts last year but then hit a rich vein of form while earning pattern class speed figures. The same pattern seems to be developing in his form this year, as evidenced by his recent win in a time between Listed and Group 3 class at Pontefract where he beat the German Listed winner Pretty Star into second. Trainer Tim Easterby beleives Jeepstar will make a useful novice hurdler which is probably true. Equally true is that he's so insanely well handicapped that Easterby's been able to enter him for a class D handicap at Ripon in a few days time. I suspect Jeepstar is going to win a few more times before he's done for the season, and I'd like to see him shoot for the November handicap.

CAPABLE GUEST (34) had to cope with short distances and slow run races in his previous starts. But he showed what he could do in a strongly run race over seven furlongs when winning a maiden in good time at Leicester. His next target is apparently the Prix Dufont D'Eelevage at Deauville. He should have a great shot of winning that. Though I'd have to add a note of caution. He's got an edge on the French juveniles we've seen so far. But the top French two year olds do tend to start appearing at the big meeting on the Cote D'Azure.

Second and third PIANOFORTE (32) and BANCHIERI (32) shouldn't have any problems winning their maidens next time out. Both are probably pattern class.

GIOCOSO (36) earned an unusually big speed rating for a class D handicap when scoring at Leicester. His trainer now thinks he's best at a mile and that it was a mistake to ruin him over longer distances. He's now won both times he's had a recent race and run over what seems to be his optimum distance, so it's tough to say just how good he is. Certainly he ought to be good enough to follow up this win if he's entered in a class C or D contest over a mile again soon.

TROJAN FLIGHT (36) also ran fast in a class D handicap and has clearly improved massively since cut back to five furlongs. He should be able to win again soon over the minimum distance and may well be capable of running a bit faster.

Another big speed figure in a race where you don't normally find them was the good rating earned by TENDER FALCON (37) when he ran away with a Bath amateur rider's race. Tender Falcon has clearly improved since being stepped up to a mile and a half. In fact, but for getting pipped on the post by the smart Party Ploy he would have won three of the four times he's raced this far. He looks capable of winning in better company.

Over jumps MINBULE (36) ran an enormous speed figure for a selling hurdle when running away with a Newton Abbot race by 16 lengths. I'm not surprised Martin Pipe's stable bought the horse in at the post-race auction. Off his low official handicap mark Minibule looks set to win a string of low grade races at 'gaff' tracks. I rather doubt Pipe would risk losing him in a seller or claimer again.

MISTER MONEY RUNS A GROUP 1 TIME

The Group 3 Rose of Lancaster stakes normally attracts a field that is much stronger than its official grading. This was true again this year. I thought the two key protagonists were Muqbil, who'd won the four previous times he'd run on dead flat courses like Haydock, and Checkit, who has consistently shown he can run with Group 1 horses in small fields. But these two smart older performers were brushed aside by the three year old MISTER MONET (42).

I think you can toss out Mister Monet's racecourse debut as it was over only six furlongs. You can also throw out his seasonal debut this year, as it was his first start in a year following a major injury. He's won all his other four starts impressively and just keeps running quicker and quicker.

Mark Johnston is apparently thinking of cutting back Mister Monet to a mile for the QEII. There are two reasons not to do that. The first is that Mister Monet showed signs of inexperience here - looking at the crowd and wandering when in front. This suggests he needs a bit more 'seasoning' before taking on Group 1 runners. The second reason not to go for the QEII is that it's over two furlongs less than his big Haydock win. I have a maxim; 'a horse is at its most effective at the outermost limits of its stamina'. At trips short of its best a horse will need a furious early pace to be effective, while at distances beyond its optimum it will need a slow early pace to last home. Clearly Mister Monet stays at least ten furlongs. He might well go a mile and a half judged on his pedigree.

In any event, wherever Mister Monet goes next I'd think long and hard about opposing him. This run showed that he is one of the best three year olds in Europe. Even in the QEII, despite my concerns, he'd be a bit interesting since that race is invariably very fast run and normally goes to a horse which stays ten furlongs.

At the same meeting DUNAKSIN (38) sprang a 50-1 surprise to take the valuable Totesport stakes, a big handicap. My read of Dunaskin's form is that he's a ten furlong specialist that is only effective at a mile on soft ground and needs a recent race (15 days or less). In the circumstances I've just described he's now won five times out of seven and gone close in his two losses. If he's turned out again soon over ten furlongs I can see him winning again.

PENTECOST (42) demonstrated once more that is is among the top milers in Europe by winning the Shergar Cup Mile in terrific time.

Previously he'd run a seriously good Group 2 time to win one of Europe's biggest handicaps last time. On tracks with uphill finishes like this he has a terrific record at a a mile - as long as he's had a race in the last three weeks. With a bit of racing luck he probably would have won the last six time times he's run in these circumstances but for a slow start and subsequent traffic problems one one occasion and an effort that was probably delayed too long in a fast-finishing loss in a Group 3.

Petnecost now goes for the European Mile Championship, the QEII over what is clearly his favorite course and distance - Ascot's mile. I'd be surprised if he failed to reach the placing in that race, and he might just win it.

Runner up VORTEX (41) equaled his best lifetime speed rating to chase Pentecost home. He is a seriously smart horse and ought to be racing in Group company. In fact, in my opinion, he oughtn't to be racing in Europe at all. He belongs in America on dirt where he could rack up as much money as he's earned in his entire life with a single win in a decent Grade 2. Vortex lacks the acceleration normally required to win big races on turf. On dirt, it's a different ball game.

WING COMMANDER (40) ran his best ever race to finish third. It may well be that he's best in smallish fields like this, so I'd like to see him switched to pattern company. He'd be a solid bet to take a Group 3 and a near certainty in Listed company.

Fourth placed COLISAY (39) earned a Group class speed figure for the fifth time in his last seven races. He's still a fresh horse, having had just three runs this year, and he acts on the kind of soft ground that tends to prevail in the Autumn. So I'd bet on him winning something big between now and the end of the year. I'd like to see him in a Group 3 or a Listed race. But he'd also be interesting in another valuable handicap.

At the same meeting PARADISE ISLE (39) won the Shergar Cup sprint in seriously good time. I confess I'm only taking a stab at the standard time for the distance of his race, as this meeting was the first where they've had to run six furlong races on the round course at Ascot. But I based her rating on the standard time for the straight course, and the round six must be at least as slow since the uphill start is steeper according to the course map and they have to negotiate a turn which adds about 0.6 of a second to the time.

Paradise Isle has now won the last three times she's run a very stiff five furlongs or gone six. She beat a seriously good field here and is clearly a smart filly who appreciated the step up in distance here. She deserves a shot at pattern company and would be a good bet to take a Listed sprint against her own sex. She might well stay seven furlongs too.

JUSTAQUESTION (33) won the Shergar Cup Juvenile in decent time. She started off in the Brocklesby but clearly appreciates a better test of stamina than that race provided. With luck in running she would have won all five times she's raced on yielding or softer ground or at seven furlongs plus. She must have a decent chance in the Group 3 Prestige stakes at Goodwood which is her next target. I'd say Justaquestion ought to improve again at a mile, so she might well end up having a good shot in the Fillies' Mile back at Ascot.

Runner-up BEAVER PATROL (33) also looks a good bet to improve at a mile seeing how much he improved when stepped up to seven furlongs here. His speed rating only ranks as Listed class, but not many two year olds run as fast as he did here at seven furlongs plus. So I can see him winning a Listed or Group 3 contest.

LAMH EILE (33) completed the three way photo to take third. She lost for the first time in three starts here but ran fast enough to suggest she's worth a shot at a Group 3. She and the winner ran a tad faster than Maids Causeway (32) who took the Group 3 Sweet Solera on the same day at Newmarket. But, as I've mentioned before, the Group races for two year olds seen so far have been unusually weak. For some reason the better juveniles seem to have been hanging back in maidens and conditions races or not even racing a bit longer than usual.

If Henry Candy trained the tortoise in that mythical contest with the hare my money would be on the tortoise. Candy has an extraordinary knack of getting horses to sprint. He's the mirror image of Mark Johnston who seems to know how to get horses to stay. One of these days I hope some academic studies the methods of these two trainers. They'd probably uncover something very useful about training a horse to run a specific distance.

I mention this because Candy has gone and done it again with RUM SHOT (38). This three year old put up a Group class time when winning a warm Listed sprint against older horses at Chester. Rum Shot won well and seemed to have a bit in had, so it's hard to tell how much faster he can run. But I'd bet Candy is right when he says "he ought to go for a Group race" as he did in the winner's enclosure.

The top fillies are a pretty hot bunch this year. The expanded programme of fillies pattern races has clearly persuaded the owners of many smart females to keep them in training at four and up this term. SAHOOL (39) is only three but she managed to beat older fillies and mares in what turned out to be a rather warm Chalice stakes at Newbury. Sahool has steadily improved this year and deserves a shot at the Yorkshire Oaks or Prix Vermeille on this run. She's probably not quite good enough but wouldn't have to improve much more to have a real chance in either contest. More likely, seeing that her trainer says she stays so well, Sahool will end up in the Park Hill stakes at Doncaster. She'd be tough to beat there.

POLAR JEM (39) improved significantly over the extra distance to run Sahool to a neck. She'd won five of the previous six times she'd run beyond a mile on fast ground and finished a good sixth in the John Smiths Magnet Cup in one of her two losses. I'm rather hoping that the handicapper doesn't refer to the time of this race and leaves Polar Jem on her current mark of 92. That would give her a major chance of winning a big handicap like the one at Ascot at the end of September. Of course, Polar Jem is a filly, and that means her owners will be keen to get her Group placed. From a betting point of view I'm rather hoping she takes up her engagement in the Group 3 Rose Of Lancaster stakes. That race is run over only ten furlongs and would pitch her in against colts. So it's unlikely that she'd run well. The punters would most likely put this big run at Newbury down as a fluke and allow her to start at nice odds when she steps back up to twelve furlongs.

SELEBELA (38), like the winner, keeps on improving. The way she got outpaced then stayed on again strongly at the finish suggests that she ought to be joining the winner in the Park Hill stakes over longer. Before then I'd like to see her in the Galtres stakes at York. Her trainer, Luca Cumani has won that race an extraordinary number of times and could easily win it again with this smart filly.

At a somewhat lower level HAVETOAVIT (35) earned a seriously good speed figure for a maiden handicap winner at Redcar. He romped home by six lengths and has clearly not been getting home over the longer distances he's been racing over. Even with a big penalty he'll still be eligible for class D and lower grade handicaps, so he should be well worth following.

Over jumps SHALAKO (39) nearly lowered the course record when scoring at Worcester. I don't know why there are so many smart novice chasers running in the off season. But in Shalako's case it's almost certainly because he needs firm ground. He showed here that he's at least as good over fences as he was over hurdles. On fast ground even First Ballot (the fastest novice chaser currently running on my ratings) might have trouble beating him.

Shalako adds weight to my long term prediction that come November we're going to see an unusual pattern to the results of novice chases. Normally at that time the chasing debutantes fielded by the big stables are more than good enough to beat the first season fencers that have won before. But this time around there is strength in depth amongst the current novice chasers, so I'm betting they'll keep on winning. Several, including Shalako, are seriously smart.

WATCH THE DOVE (38) who ran second to Shalako, go to within a length and a half. He pulled a distance clear of the rest while doing so and is clearly a very novice chaser in his own right. It could be that he's best on a galloping track and needs fast ground, but there's not enough evidence to say that for sure yet. I would not care to oppose him next time out. I just hope he takes on something with a reputation as punters look sure to under-rate this horse since he's lost all 22 of his starts to date - the vast majority of which came over hurdles or on soft ground - probably unsuitable conditions for him.

ALKAASED AND FIRST CHARTER ARE VERY SMART

The Group 1 races for older horses have generally been fought out by a motley crew of sub-standard runners this season. The Sussex stakes was no exception. It saw Soviet Song (41) and Nayyir (41) fight out the finish in a time that plenty of Group 2 and Group 3 horses could equal or better.

There were excuses for some of the losers. Refuse To Bend had finished eighth or worse in his three previous tries on tight tracks, so his last place finish here means little. Back on a more galloping track I'd expect him to bounce back to form. The trouble is his best form only earned him a rating of 42 which is a tad below average for a Group 1.

Antonius Pius might just have won had he not been impeded. Haafhd drifted in the betting, and that normally signifies a horse is unfit, which may have been the case following his lay-off. Le Vie Dei Colori is another who was almost certainly unfit. Cumani's acquisitions rarely run to their best first time up for the new stable. Le Vei Dei Colori should therefore improve. But basically I see nothing very promising from this race. And I think we're going to see in the Juddmonte International just how weak the older Group 1 horses are generally. With smart three year olds Bago, Azamour and Cacique due to take part, I'm predicting a wipeout for the older generation.

Actually there are quite a few older horses lurking around in Listed and Group 3 contests, even handicaps that are running as fast or nearly as fast as the Group 1 runners. A whole bunch of them met in the Listed Glorious Stakes at Goodwood. ALKAASED (42) and FIRST CHARTER (42) pulled well clear of the field to fight out the finish and are now looking very interesting indeed.

First Charter is a typical five year old improver from the Stoute barn. It's amazing how often Sir Michael succeeds in bringing a horse along slowly and then getting it to improve massively as a five year old. He's turned the trick again with First Charter. I wouldn't under estimate First Charter. Only two horses have finished in front of him in the last year on good or faster ground (he obviously hates soft) - Alkaased and Mubtaker, the Arc second.

Alkaased is a lightly raced four year old who just keeps on improving. I'd like to see him take a shot at the Canadian International later on in the year. Meanwhile I rather hope both he and First Charter take up their engagement in the Geoffrey Freer stakes. Most likely they'd run 1-2 again and punters would under-value their form, since the best of it will have been exclusively against each other.

ANCIENT WORLD (39) is another up and comer. He took the William Hill Mile under a huge weight in Group class time. I mentioned Ancient World before after he'd run second to Putra Pekan. Putra Pekan has twice earned Group 1 speed figures from me and is a serious horse when fresh and racing on good or softer ground. Ancient World is pretty nifty too, and has seemingly calmed down since being gelded. Whether we'll get any sort of a price about him when he steps up to Group company is debatable. But he's probably worth following.

Runner-up IMPELLER (38) has run Group class times before and did so again here. Unfortunately he alwys seems to hit traffic problems in big fields as he did here. He broke his maiden in a big field but has lost all 26 times he's contested races with more than ten runners since. But for an unlucky short head defeat, he would have won the alst three times he's been in races with ten runners or less. Clearly the route to go with Impeller should be to steer him towards Listed and conditions races rather than valuable handicapos like this where there are always a huge number of runners.

ASTROCHARM (39) has improved dramatically since stepped up to longer distances. She clocked a time that would win Group 2 races for fillies when winning a Group 3 at Goodwood over a mile and three quarters. Her trainer says Astrocharm needs fast ground. She has now won four of the five times she's raced on officially good to firm or faster ground at 12 furlongs or more. Reading the reports on her win I get the impression she's still generally under-rated. It will take a very smart filly to beat her on fast ground at longer trips, so I reckon she's worth following.

Runner-up PONGEE (39) improved slightly on her Lancashire Oaks win and also seems to like firm ground. If she hadn't bumped into such a smart horse here she'd have been winning for the seventh time in eight tries on fast ground at ten furlongs or more. Pongee would have a shot in the Yorkshire Oaks. If Luca Cumani runs her in his favorite race, the Galtres stakes, instead she'd be very hard to beat. Personally I think that would be 'overkill'. He has another filly, Selebela, who'd have a major shot in the Galtres stakes. If she were mine, I'd be going for the Group 1 prize with Pongee.

The King George stakes was yet another in a long line of Group sprints where the runners finished in a heap and the winner. Ringmoor Down (39) ran just an average time for the class. The Racing Post noted that three of the first four home in this race are among the first five in the betting for the Nunthorpe. I can only hope none of them are good enough to win and that a genuine Group 1 horse like Airwave will encounter the circumstances required to produce their best in that race.

MAC LOVE(38) ran almost as fast as Ringmo0r Down when beating the smart Lochridge in a conditions sprint at Doncaster. I confess that I find it hard to get a handle on this three year old's form. My best shot is that he needs fast ground and a dead flat, dead straight course. On officially good to firm or faster ground on tracks without any turns or gradients whatsoever he would have won six out of six but for two photo finish defeats. He's entered in the Nunthorpe, and of course that is on exactly his sort of track. He wouldn't need to improve much to win or go close if he got his ground.

FONG'S THONG (38) won a Listed race impressively at Goodwood, running a Group 3 class time once more. The fact that he did not regress from his big Newbury effort suggests that it probably wasn't as fast as he can run. He'd only need to improve a point or two to have a shot in the Celebration Mile on this track. His trainer rates him very highly and is not usually one to go overboard, so I'd say Fong's Thong remains one to follow.

MEPHISTO (38) ran a Group class time to take a valuable 1m 6f handicap at Glroious Goodwood despite encountering traffic. He seems to need a couple of recent runs and is tough to beat when he gets them. In fact. So far he's run four times when he's had two outings in the previous two months and won every time. He's looking quite interesting for the Ebor now.

Runner-up SERGEANT CECIL (38) also earned a chunky speed figure. But I'd give him far less chance in the Ebor. I say this because he seems to prefer small fields. A small field for most horses is 11 runners or less, and Sergeant Cecil's form on fast ground in fields that small is very solid. The Ebor field won't be small enough for him but lesser handicaps at his the longer trips Sergeant Cecil favours generally attract small fields. So I'd say he's worth following.

Byron (38) earned exactly the same speed figure as he had at Royal Ascot to win the Group 2 Lennox stakes. He'd need to improve to take another race at this level, which is why I haven't put his name in capitals signifying him as a horse I think is worth following.

At Kempton WELCOME STRANGER (36) ran a pretty good time to take a Classified stakes over a mile. My read of his form is that he's best at a mile and in smallish fields. In fact, with a bit of racing luck he would have won the last seven times he's run in fields of 12 or less at a mile.

The good three year old handicappers just keep on coming, and ATTUNE (36) added to their number with a clear cut win in unusually fast time for a class D contest at Newmarket. It looks like Attune needs fast ground to run her best. If she gets it next time I'd be wary of opposing her in a class C or D contest.

Not many top class horses make their debuts at Epsom. Trainers tend to prefer dead flat straight courses to introduce a youngster to racing. Nonetheless RED PEONY (32) showed that she's probably Group class when lowering the seven furlong juvenile record on her racecourse debut at the home of the Blue Riband.

A rating of 32 would be pretty ho hum at five or six furlongs at this time of year. But over seven it's a bit more interesting since so few two year olds stay. Red Peony obviously does. In fact she's bred to get at least ten furlongs. It will take a smart horse to stop her winning in pattern company next time out. I'd be surprised if we don't see her running in the Fillies' Mile at Ascot later on.

Red Peony is one of many fast juvenile maiden winners that I've mentioned here in recent weeks. I've been predicting for a while that such horses would soon begin overturning the form that has so far been established in two year old Group races because they've been universally slow so far. The process began when MONTOGMERY'S ARCH (33) won the Richmond stakes at Goodwood.

Peter Chapple-Hyam was taking a risk cutting back Montgomery's Arch to six furlongs from the seven of his debut win. But it paid off. Montgomery's Arch needs to improve a little to be competitive in the big two year old races to come. But that seems quite possible if, as planned, he's stepped back up to the longer distances he's bred for.

Trainer John Gosden is convinced that runner up MYSTICAL LAND (33) did not like the firm ground here or at Royal Ascot (where he placed in the Norfolk stakes). For this reason he nominated the Prix Morny in France as the horse's big target, as the ground is likely to be slower there since they water more. Right now Mystical Land rates faster than any French two year old that has run. This isn't really a fair comparison, since the French race horses at two massively less than the British or the Irish, and their better juveniles tend to start much later in the season. In any event, Mystical Land would clearly have a real shot in the Morny. The race normally goes to a British or Irish runner simply because the top French juveniles have yet to race when it's run.