CHIC HAS IMPROVED AGAIN

CHIC (43) was one of the most improved horses last season. And the time she put up to win last Sunday's Celebration Mile suggests she has improved again this year.

This was not one of those situations where I had to take a shot at a speed rating on the basis of a single fast time which might be open to interpretation. The computer program that I use to help with my speed ratings indicates that the ground was riding precisely the same speed as the previous day at the same track. And all the fast races were run in exactly the time my ratings indicated they should have been. There's no question that Chic ran a seriously good international Group 1 class time. She can beat smart colts in Group 1 company. That's how good my ratings say she is. So I have to give her a huge chance of taking the Sun Chariot Stakes next time out against fillies.

Runner-up MAJORS CAST (43) had won the three previous times he'd run a mile and is clearly far better at this distance than over seven furlongs. He pulled five lengths clear of the rest of the field which included some smart performers.

Over a mile Majors Cast must have a great chance of taking a Group 1, maybe even the QEII, the European Mile Championship. I'd also like to see him go for the Breeders' Cup Mile. Normally that race features a slow pace, and that doesn't suit Majors Cast. But this year the hot favourite is going to be front-running Leroidesainmaux who tends to set a proper European-style gallop.

SHORT SKIRT'S OAKS PRICE IS TOO LONG

SHORT SKIRT (37) ranks as the top juvenile filly beyond six furlongs following her six length debut romp at Newmarket. It could well be that she needs the soft ground which she encountered at headquarters. But the fact remains this was a Group 1 class performance by a filly that earned the unusual distinction of being described as a 'good sort' by Raceform (fillies aren't usually big or muscular enough to merit that).

The 33-1 quote from VCBet for the Oaks looks too big to me. Short Skirt showed the form to match her smart pedigree and unusually good looks here. Horses invariably improve several lengths for their debut efforts, and this was the fastest debut we've seen from a two year old at any distance all season.

I don't know if Short Skirt is going to run again this year, but if she does I'd be very wary of opposing her. If she were mine the race I'd be targeting would be the Prix Marcel Boussac. That race is often run on soft ground and the extra furlong would clearly suit Short Skirt. The filly is certainly good enough to win the race, even though it's invariably the strongest race for juvenile fillies in Europe.

MOONLIGHT MUSIC (30), also making her racecourse debut, ran faster than the average maiden winner to run second. In my experience horses that get beat by wide margins while chasing home freakishly fast winners can invariably run a good deal faster. For this reason I suspect those Group 1 entries held by Moonlight Music are far from optimistic and fully expect her to frank this form by winning next time.

THE CESAREWITCH WINNER RAN IN THIS RACE

The staying handicap won by BADDAM (39) at Newmarket was so fast I'm strongly inclined to believe it contained the Cesarewitch winner.

It could be that Baddam is going to take the big race. He's a highly progressive three year old whose owner thinks could be good enough for the Leger (he's just about right according to my speed ratings which mark this out as a Group 3 class performance).

The second, third and fourth, LAND 'N STARS (39), LARKWING (39) AND MIKAO (38) all finished close up behind Baddam and look very interesting Cesarewitch candidates in their own right.

Land 'n Stars only got beat a couple of lengths in last year's Cesarawitch and looks to have been specially laid out for another shot at the big one this year. Larkwing ran close in the Chester Cup and clearly likes going marathon distances. And Mikao showed tremendous improvement on his first run over a longer trip.

I reckon that one of these horses is going to win the Cesarewitch. Just which one I'm not quite sure at this point.

MCELDOWNEY JUST KEEPS ON IMPROVING

Mark Johnston has an amazing knack of getting his charges to outstay their pedigrees. In fact it pays to take notice when he steps any of his horses to a middle distance for the first time (you'd actually have made a good profit betting him every time he tried this maneuver over the last decade).

The latest Johnston inmate to show spectacular improvement over a longer trip is MCELDWONEY (36). This three year old won in fast time at Hamilton and followed up in higher class at Brighton a few days later. Despite the much softer ground McEldowney still earned the same speed rating from me. When a horse earns the speed rating on two very different types of ground it usually means its capable of running fast in my experience. Even assuming he has already hit his top speed figure McEldwoney is still under-rated by official ratings so I can see him winning again.

DUNE RAIDER (36) ran McEldowney close at Hamilton. The key to him seems to be the ground. He'd won the only previous time the official going had 'firm' in the description as it did here. If he can be steered towards an ordinary handicap with fast ground soon he ought to win.

RED PEONY MUST WIN SOON

I thought I'd found myself a sure fire long shot winner in RED PEONY (38) in the Listed Virginia Handicap at Yarmouth. My confidence was based on her trainer Sir Mark Prescott and one of his favourite maneuvers. This is to ship a smart horse over to Ireland. In the last dozen years his Irish runners have won an amazing 15 times out of 31 tries.

The reason Sir Mark is able to sustain his terrific strike rate in Ireland is that he basically only sends high class horses over there. Of the twelve horses he's sent over there that raced three or more times subsequently nine won Group races or placed in Group 1 company. Another took four Listed races. (Six of the twelve won or placed in Group 1 company).

If you'd bet Prescott's Irish runners the next three times they ran following their Irish start you'd have done very well. All told you'd have won 17 bets out of 59 and earned a profit of 48%.

Red Peony had run in Ireland recently and my read of her form gave her every prospect of winning in Group company.

Red Peony was one of the fastest juvenile debutante winners of last season on my speed ratings. She subsequently placed and ran well in Group company against Group class 1 rivals. This season she seems to have been slow to come to hand, but she has run progressively faster with each start. Her Irish venture proved abortive. But she ran a good race on her outing immediately before Yarmouth to get within six lengths of La Persiana in a hot Listed race.

Sadly my long shot didn't quite get there. LA PERSIANA (39) beat her again. But Red Peony ran a close second, earning the Group class speed rating I thought she was capable of.

La Persiana is a high class filly (at least Group 2 on my speed ratings). I've mentioned her here before and think she's still worth following. But Red Peony is surely the horse to take out of this race. Sir Mark is surely going to place her to take at least a Listed race soon.

INTREPID JACK LOOKING GOOD FOR AYR GOLD CUP

There is basically no difference between the top handicappers and the top Group race runners in British sprints. So it was hardly surprising to see TAX FREE (40) and INTREPID JACK (40) run a Group 2 class time when fighting out the finish of the William Hill Trophy at York.

Tax Free is still unbeaten in sprints and must have a great chance of becoming one of the top horses over 5-6f when he returns next season. Intrepid Jack is due to come back to the races a lot sooner. He's entered in the Ayr Gold Cup and must have a great chance there if getting a decent draw and fast ground.

KYDD GLOVES IS PATTERN CLASS

KYDD GLOVES (37) won a York handicap in a time that would take many Group races for three year old fillies. This Godolphin filly is unbeaten in two starts and will surely be winning Listed and Group races before long. She stays in training next year apparently and looks set to improve as she's described as being still weak by Diana Cooper, the owner's representative.

MUBTAKER HAS DETERIORATED

Mubtaker (38) dropped to Listed company to take the March Stakes at Goodwood. But once again he earned a speed rating which indicates he's just not as fast as he used to be. I wouldn't bet on Mubtaker being able to make a successful return to Group company.

Runner-up Unfurled, unlike Mubtaker (37), has his career in front of him. But he didn't really run fast enough to merit consideration for the Leger. Indeed the stats show that in recent years if a horse is good enough to win the Leger it won't have been tried over 1m 5f plus before the big race as Unfurled was here. In the last 14 runnings of the big race 54 of the 133 starters had previously run 1m 5f or more before taking part. None of the 54 scored.

ECCENTRIC HAS GREAT CHANCE AT TURFWAY PARK

ECCENTRIC (40) showed once again that he's just as fast on grass as he is on Polytrack when taking a strong renewal of the Group 3 Winter Hill Stakes at Windsor. This is acutally not that surprising. The physical properties of Polytrack are much closer to grass than they are to a normal dirt surface - and this probably explains why Eccentric flopped when tried on a genuine dirt surface at Jagersro. He's won seven of his ten starts at a mile plus on Polytrack or fast turf, earning a whole string of big speed figures from me.

I think Eccentric's connections have been very shrewd to enter him in the upcoming $350,000 Kentucky Cup Classic at Turfway Park in America. The Grade 2 US race on September 17th is to be run on the new Polytrack surface that's been laid on the Kentucky course. So far no horse on the planet has run faster on Polytrack than Eccentric. It makes sense to give him a shot at the biggest prize yet run on the strange surface. He's run fast enough to win it unless one of the very top US dirt runners takes part.

HATTAN (39) ran a great race to run the older winner to three parts of a length. I don't know why he ran below form in the Derby and last time out at Newmarket. But he showed here, and when winning the Chester Vase that he's a smart three year old. I suspect he won't quite last the Leger trip. However, if he were mine, I'd be seriously considering a shot at Britain's final classic. He'd go into the race as one of the fastest runners on my speed ratings

HAKIM IS WAY BETTER THAN A SUMMER JUMPER

HAKIM (38) ran away with a strongly contested chase at Bangor in exceptional time. He lost his first start off a two year lay-off following leg trouble, but this is the norm for him. If you include his Kiwi form he's now lost and run well below form all 14 times he's been away from the races for five weeks or more.

Hakim has now won all three chases he's contested following a recent race and definitely looks one to follow. His trainer, John Spearing, says Hakim is ideally suited by a bit of cut in the ground - but I suspect this is only because he doesn't want to risk a aggravating the horse's old injury on fast ground. All Hakim's six New Zealand wins were achieved on good or faster ground.

In New Zealand Hakim was a pretty useful horse. He won a class 6 handicap (the highest class below 'open'). But he only once won over a trip longer than seven furlongs, so I'd be a bit wary of betting him over much longer than the 2m 1f and 110 yards that he won over at Bangor.

Hakim won off a mark of just 99 at Bangor, so he's clearly ludicrously well handicapped over fences. I can see him extending his winning streak all the way till the jumps season proper starts in November - and even then I'd be wary of opposing him. Hakim is way better than a Summer jumper.

ELECTROCUTIONIST DOES IT AGAIN

I've been whittering on about the fast times ELECTROCUTIONIST (44) has been running in Italy ever since last Autumn. So I was pleased to see him finally running outside of his home country at York last week. I confess I was a bit worried he was cutting back to ten furlongs for the Juddmonte International as my read of his form and pedigree suggests that a mile and a half is his proper distance. Sure enough he was stone last entering the straight and only got up very late in proceedings.

As ever Electrocutionist earned a big speed rating from me. Indeed he seems to be one of those horses that always runs fast. In my experience such horses are best fresh, and I'm now inclined to think this is why he's only had seven runs in his whole career. It's a pity he had to lose that one race last year by a short head. But even the very best horses get beaten sometimes, and make no mistake Electrocutionist is one of the very best. He may not be as versatile as his former compatriot Falbrav who won the Juddmonte in 2003. He's awfully smart though.

Personally I hope that Electrocutionist is now put away and goes straight to the Breeders' Cup Turf. It's a race that his New York owner is keen to win because it's run in his home town this year. But Electrocutionist's trainer, Valfredo Valiani, is now talking about taking in the Arc as well. I don't like the sound of that for a horse that seems to need breaks between his runs. And neither would French Champion trainer and unofficial Captain of the European team for the Breeders' Cup Andre Fabre. He once said that 'too many European trainers see the Breeders' Cup as an afterthought to the Arc'.

I'm hoping Valiani has a re-think, or is overruled by Electrocutionist's owner. As I see it, the Arc would not be an ideal race for Electrocutionist. The big field plus the strong possibility of a slow early pace and soft ground would all be against him. So he could lose the Arc and just by running in it blow his chances for the race his owner has set his heart on.

Japanese Champion ZENNO ROB ROY (44) only just went under to the Italian Champ. He certainly seems to have improved with age and must have a real chance of landing the same three big Japanese races he did at the end of last year - the Tenno Sho, the Japan Cup and the Arima Kinen. It's just a shame that Japanese prize money is so high it's hard to tempt the owner of a horse like this to run overseas.

The most interesting horse to take out of the Juddmonte surely has to be MARAAHEL (44). Willie Supple reportedly felt that Maraahel didn't quite last the twelve furlongs when he tired late in the John Porter Stakes on his seasonal debut. This view seemed to be borne out when Maraahel put up a career best performance on the clock to take a Group 3 over ten furlongs at Chester next time.

For some reason Maraahel was stepped back up to twelve furlongs last time and again tired late in the race. Back at what seems to be his right trip here, he again ran a lifetime best on the clock.

I rather suspect that many people are going to under-rate Maraahel's performance. In reality he finished a very close third to the champion racehorses of Italy and Japan. What's more he beat some very smart horses home. I see him as a very likely Group 1 winner over ten furlongs and look forward to getting a decent price about him in something like the Champion Stakes at either Newmarket or Leopardstown.

Poor old ACE (43) earned an international class speed rating from me for the third time in his last four starts to run fourth. It's not his fault that he's now lost six times in a row. He's just been unlucky to keep banging heads with the best horses on the planet. His turn will surely come soon. I can't think of any horse that's run so fast so often in such a short run of races at ten furlongs plus that's failed ton win a Group 1.

One horse that has run fast an awful lot of times (though over a much wider spread of races) is fifth placed Norse Dancer (41). I can't nominate him as one to follow as I just don't think he's got what it takes to win at the top level. Most horses have a class ceiling above which they're unable to win, and for Norse Dancer that seems to be represented by Group 3. He has won four of the five times he's raced in Group 3 or lower class. But he has now lost no less than 22 times in Group 2 or Group 1 company. Okay he did run a big race last time in the King George. But that was surely because he dropped out to the tail of the field and thereby benefited from the collapse of the furious early pace.

ASHKAL WAY IS LOOKING INTERESTING FOR THE CAMBRIDGESHIRE

it invariably takes a Group class horse to win the Cambridgeshire, usually a lightly-raced one too. And I can't think of a better candidate than ASHKAL WAY (39) who earned a solid Group class rating from me when running away with the big handicap at Beverley last Saturday.

Trainer Brian Ellison says Ashkal Way should have own five out of five this season. That may be so. All I can say is that the horse is running faster with every start and looks a very interesting prospect for the first leg of the Autumn double.

ECHO OF LIGHT LOOKS GROUP CLASS

ECHO OF LIGHT (38) disgraced himself when dumping his jockey when well clear at Windsor a few weeks ago. But he redeemed his reputation in no uncertain style when hammering the useful Conscript by eight lengths at Yarmouth.

Echo Of Light is one of those rare horses that has such a good physique Raceform describe him as a 'nice colt'. On average there are only one or two horses a year that merit this description. Most of them have proven to be Group class and my speed ratings say that Echo Of Light is that way inclined as well. He came nearly three seconds a mile closer to my standard time than any other winner on the card. That's really unusual.

RED ADMIRAL IMPRESSES

RED ADMIRAL (36) ran away with a handicap at Salisbury, leaving his previous form this season well behind. Then again he is a Godolphin horse and they try to keep only pattern class horses in their yard. Red Admiral is not far off pattern class on this run and can surely be placed to win again soon.

TAWQEET IS SMART - BUT FORGET ABOUT THE LEGER

The Melrose Handicap is invariably won by a smart horse. And TAWQEET (38) undoubtedly maintained the tradition when taking this year's renewal by four lengths. He looks a Cup horse in the making. But the stats say you can forget about his chances in the St Leger. In the last 14 years over five dozen Leger runners raced beyond a mile and a half before the final British Classic and they all lost. It seems that these days if a horse is capable of winning a Group 1 race it will only be tried beyond a mile and a half in Group 1 company for fear of reducing its stud value.

NITEOWL LAD COULD WIN A BIG SPRINT HANDICAP

There aren't that many good three year old sprinters. My studies show that sprinters tend to peak in the spring of their five year old season. For this reason I think it's worth noting the unusually fast time recorded by NITEOWL LAD (36) hen he won an ordinary handicap over the minimum distance at Windsor.

Niteowl Lad has won the last three times he's encountered good or faster ground, and his trainer is now talking in terms of big sprints like the Ayr Gold Cup and Portland Handicap. I wouldn't rate that as impossible by any means.

Runner-up PEOPLETON BROOK (36) has already won three races this year. He went on to run a close third in a much higher class race at York next time despite a slipping saddle, so I suspect he too is worth following.

FLASHY WINGS NOT SO FLASHY THIS TIME

FLASHY WINGS (37) duly won the Lowther Stakes. But her time was a tad slower by my estimates than when she took the Queen Mary. In addition she didn't look anything like as impressive. It could be she's just a bit lazy. Or it could aslo be that the extra furlong didn't suit her so well and that the step up to a mile next year won't suit her at all.

I'm not yet convinced by Flashy Wings. I want to see how she does beyond short sprint trips before jumping on this particular bandwagon.

LA CUCARACHA IS A SMART SPRINTER - BUT SO ARE MANY OTHERS

I've never quite figured out why there are so many smart sprinters in England. But the bunched finish of the Nunthorpe Stakes confirmed that this year is no different than previous ones. There were less than three lengths between the first dozen past the line.

Normally I'd be jumping up and down about the speed rating earned by the winner La Cucharacha (43). However there are so many fast sprinters in Britain it's easy to see her getting beat next time.

SERRE CHEVALIER CAN WIN AGAIN

SERRE CHEVALIER (38) earned a pattern class speed rating from me when winning a handicap at York. I'm betting that something went wrong with him at Epsom last time seeing that he was off for two months afterwards. Toss out that run and Serre Chevalier has won both times he's run beyond six furlongs this season. He must have a good chance of winning again next time.

LAYMAN IS A REAL STAR

Wow did LAYMAN (43) run fast at Salisbury. He broke the course record for the mile when winning the Group 3 Sovereign Stakes, ear5ning a seriously good Group 1 speed rating from me.

Layman lost a Group 1 by a head and ran a good second to Divine Proportions in another Group 1 in his only defeats so far. He's won all his other three starts and I wouldn't want to bet on him losing below Group 1 class if he turns out for the Group 2 Celebration Mile at Goodwood. He's fast enough to win the QEII. But that race normally suits horses that can stay at least ten furlongs and trainer Saeed bin Suroor says that a mile is Layman's distance.

Layman has previously shown that he can be effective in slow run races. So the race I'd like to see him in is the Breeders' Cup Mile. They always go slow for the first five or six furlongs of that race and a European runner as fast as Layman that can handle that sort of pace scenario is rare/

Runner-up JACK SULLIVAN (41) earned a borderline Group 1 class speed rating for the second time in a row despite the fact that his trainer is convinced he's better on dirt (all his wins have been on dirt or AW tracks). The plan is apparently now to go for the Grade 1 Woodward Stakes at Belmont Park on dirt on September 10th. The fastest US runners in that race will only have run a couple of lengths a mile faster than Jack Sullivan did here. Jack Sullivan will likely be available at huge odds but he has a real chance of at least placing on the clock.

NEW SEEKER (39) ran seriously well for him in a smallish field to take third. My read of New Seeker is that he is at his best with in recent run in a huge field. I think he enjoys the fierce pace that only a really big field can generate. He's won four times out of four in fields of 22 or more with a recent run. But this was the first time he's placed in his last six starts in smaller fields. New Seeker would have to carry a huge weight if he switched back to handicap company again, but, given his record, I'd say that's where his best chance of success lies.

HELM BANK (38) ran a nice race to finish fifth. I fancied him strongly despite his big odds because of the trip and the ground. My theory is that Helm Bank has become a one mile specialist since his two year old days. He also seems to need fast ground. Toss out his runs since two at anything but a mile or less and his form prior to this run would almost certainly show five wins from five tries but for two narrow and very unlucky losses in valuable handicaps. This run was excellent too as he earned a Group 3 speed rating from me.

Helm Bank beat Tomahawk in the Chesham Stakes at two, and that one went on to run second in Group 1 races on his next two starts. I strongly suspect that he is just as good now. In fact I believe the switch back to pattern company could be the making of him. He habitually meets traffic trouble in big field handicaps and has scored all of his wins in fields of 12 or less. I reckon he'll take a Listed or Group 3 race sometime soon if the going remains fast.

SLEEPING INDIAN STILL LOOKS A GROUP 1 WINNER IN THE MAKING

A couple of months ago SLEEPING INDIAN (40) won a Listed race in what I rated Group 1 time at Haydock. He didn't run quite as fast to take the Hungerford Stakes. But his jockey said he had a fair bit in hand at the finish so there's every likelihood he could have run another Group 1 time if pressed.

Sleeping Indian is a very good looking horse and has now won four of his five starts. I have to agree with his trainer's post-race statement that he doesn't need cut in the ground as race times suggest the going was actually good here. Hopefully he'll be given another shot at Group 1 company soon.

CIRCASSIAN LOOKS A CESAREWITCH CANDIDATE

CIRCASSIAN (36) bolted up by six lengths in a low grade staying handicap at Beverley. In doing so he earned a speed rating from me that would win many Listed races. This wasn't the first time he's run fast. In fact last year I had him running a bit quicker when he won another minor race.

The two things which seem to dictate Circassian's form are the distance and the going. Give him good or faster ground and a trip beyond ten furlongs and he's really hard to beat. In fact he's yet to lose any of this three starts over 10f plus on fast turf.

I can see Circassian winning a decent handicap at some point this season. In fact I'm fully expecting to see him among the entries for the Cesarewitch where I'd be very interested in his chances on fast ground.

REGENT'S SECRET AHEAD OF THE HANDICAPPER

REGENT'S SECRET (37) is steadily building a formidable record at Hamilton. He was winning for the fourth time in his last six runs at the track when taking a fast run handicap in good style.

It could well be that Regent's Secret can run just as fast at any track as long as the ground is fast and he's racing over 9-10 furlongs. So far all his runs in these circumstances have been restricted to his local track. In any event Regent's Secret still qualifies for races well below his true class according to my speed ratings. So as long as he gets his ground and his distance I'd bet on him winning again soon.

LA PERSIANA HAS A BIG CHANCE IN THE BLANDFORD STAKES

I noted LA PERSIANA (37) here before after she'd run a good second to Dash To The Top in what I rated one of the fastest races of the season. She didn't have to run as fast to take a Listed race at Salisbury. But in doing so she seemed to prove that she prefers fast ground.

La Persiana has now encountered fast ground at ten furlongs on five occasions, winning four and running that big second to Dash To The Top in her only loss. As with all good fillies the big objective is now to get her a Group win. The Blandford Stakes looks set to be her next target and I'd have to give her a major chance there.

SUMMITVILLE IS BEST OVER SHORTER TRIPS

SUMMITVILLE (38) equaled the bests speed rating she's ever earned from me when taking a Listed race in near course record time at Bath.

Summitville's entry in this mile race and the Sun Chariot over the same trip seems to suggest that trainer James Given beleives that lack of stamina explains the filly's long losing streak before this run - and I think he's right.

Summitville's middles distance credentials rest largely on the fact that she lost the Oaks by only three quarters of a length. But according to my speed ratings the Oaks was actually a slow run race. Indeed Summitville has never run a Group class time over a middle distance. The only time she did that before this run was when she was cut back to a mile a couple of runs back. On that occasion she went under in a photo finish to multiple Group 1 placed Red Bloom. Her next fastest recent effort came the only other time she ran less than ten furlongs since her juvenile days. This was when she ran a neck second to Tarfah in a red hot Group 3 at Newmarket in May.

I actually suspect that there are a couple of other preferences other than for a shorter distance that produced Summitville's long losing run. The first is that she tends to hit traffic in big fields. For most horses this means 11 runners or less (that's the cut-off point after which there is a big increase in the amount of interference in a race). The second is that she's best when fresh. She seems to run to what I call the rest pattern. That is she's best on her first two starts of the season but then needs a break of five weeks or so to run well again.

If you accept my read of Summitville's form you'll find that her record shows nothing but good runs short of middle distances in small fields when fresh. She's now won three of the five times she's run in this combination of circumstances and run second to high class fillies in her three losses. I'll be very interested in her chances next time she comes into a race on firm ground short of middle distances off a break.

DON'T OPPOSE OUNINPHOJA

OUNINPOHJA (40) won for the third time in a row when taking a hot little class 3 handicap at Pontefract. He earned a Group class speed rating from me in doing so and looks ludicrously well handicapped at present. He's apparently due to go hurdling but there's another flat race for him at Ayr in September where I wouldn't want to oppose him. If he can translate this sort of form to hurdles I'd expect to see him in the Supreme Novices next March.

SUZY BLISS LOOKS PATTERN CLASS

SUZY BLISS (34) won a seven furlong maiden juvenile auction race at Sandown in unusually fast time for the class. My interpretation of her time suggests that she is at least Listed class so I'll be very interested to see where she runs next. I'd be very interested in her chances in a Listed race, and if she goes for a nursery I'd be wary of opposing her.

PARISIAN STORM IS BETTER THAN AN OFF-SEASON CHASER

PARISIAN STORM (37) blasted home by 20 lengths at Bangor and is clearly way better than the average off season chaser. His trainer clearly rates this smart ex pointer highly. So do I. In fact my speed ratings suggest that he is still likely to be very well handicapped even after he's been re-assessed for this win.

Given fast ground Parisian Storm is going to be very tough to beat over the next two or three months.

ALEXANDRA GOLDRUN IS IMPROVING

ALEXANDRA GOLDRUN (43) earned one of the biggest speed ratings I've awarded all season when taking the Nassau Stakes. In fact her speed ratings show a steady upward trend all the way from her two year old days till now.

Part of the reason for the improvement Alexandra Goldrun has shown has clearly been brought about by the step up to ten furlongs. She has in fact now won four of the last five times she's run ten furlongs - all in Group 1 company. I'd be wary of betting any horse against her - male or female - at this distance.

Runner-up CASSYDORA (42) emulated her dam and grand-dam by bouncing back to form after flopping in the Oaks at Epsom. I'd given her a solid Group 1 speed rating for her win in the Lingfield Oaks Trial before that, and she once again earned a seriously big rating from me here.

Cassydora deserves a Group 1 win, and I note with interest that she's entered in the Yorkshire Oaks. I'd like to see her go for that race, but wherever she runs next I reckon she'll be hard to beat.

INDIAN MAIDEN IS VERY SMART AROUND A TURN

INDIAN MAIDEN (42) took a Listed sprint from a small field at Chester in good Group class time. And if you analyze her record this is not surprising.

Look through Indian Maiden's form and you'll find three comments which crop up regularly - 'dwelt', 'wide' and 'not clear run'. This is very typical for horses which suffer from what I call 'the small field syndrome'. Such horses tend to be smaller or lighter-framed than their rivals so they come off worst in the traffic that occurs in a race (often they're fillies like Indian Maiden). As a result they become wary of getting involved in any crowding. They hold back at the start when crowding is at its greatest, they go wide around the turns to avoid the traffic on the rail, and they are shy of going for gaps that bigger horses would be able to push their way through.

Most horses that suffer from the small field syndrome have a very specific cut-off point - a certain number of runners that they can cope with. With Indian Maiden the number of runners seems to be twelve. She's won nine of the last sixteen times she's run in fields of a dozen or less but won just one of her 13 starts in bigger fields (most recently on her next outing at the Curragh).

Indian Maiden seems especially good in races around a turn in small fields. She's now run in six races around a turn with a dozen runners or less and won every single time. If she were mine I'd ship her to California and farm the turf sprints at Hollywood and Santa Anita which invariably feature small fields. Over here we're just going to have to be patient for another suitable race to come along for this smart filly.

Runner-up EISTEDFOD (41) has won more races than he's lost and already taken a valuable sprint handicap this term. This run suggests he's capable of winning in Group company now.

CROSSPEACE CAN WIN IN GROUP COMPANY

It takes a very smart three year old to place in a big handicap against older runners. But CROSSPEACE (39) managed the feat when losing the Totesport Mile at Glorious Goodwood by only a neck.

If he were mine I'd be avoiding handicap races with Crosspeace from now on. This does indeed seem to be the plan as trainer Mark Johnston has him entered up in several Group races. ON this run Crosspeace is well capable of taking a Group 3 and maybe even a Group 2.

HIGH CURRAGH A FREAKISHLY FAST NURSERY WINNER

HIGH CURRAGH (35) won a nursery handicap in pattern class time at York. He might well have won all his three starts to date had he not run green on his debut. Now he will surely step up to pattern company where I'd give him a serious chance of success. A half-brother to top class sprinter Kyllachy, I wouldn't rule out the possibility of him proving as good as that one. We'll get the chance to see if he is should he take up his engagement in the Middle Park.

HOW GOOD IS NOTABLE GUEST?

NOTABLE GUEST (40) earned a big write up from when winning at Newmarket back in April. Now he's gone and run a really good Group 2 class time again in beating the useful David Junior at Haydock in the Group 3 Rose Of Lancaster stakes.

One is left to wonder just how good Notable Guest now is. After all he's now won four of his last five starts - with the sole loss being from a bad draw when he got agitated before the start in the John Smiths' Cup.

Could Notable Guest be Group 1 class? I wouldn't like to bet against it at this stage. Indeed I'd be worried about opposing him in any race he contests in the near future.

ACE OF HEARTS SHOULD DO WELL IN PATTERN COMPANY

Until he beat a big field at Sandown last month I thought I had ACE OF HEARTS (39) figured out. It seemed to me he was one of those horses that prefers a small field - in his case 11 runners or less. Then he went and beat the very smart Momtic and 15 others in Sandown's valuable totescoop6 handicap.

After his win in a small field last week at Windsor I'm inclined to think that Ace Of Hearts big field win was a one-off. After all he has now won five of the last six times he's run in fields of 11 or less and scored just that once in 24 starts in bigger fields.

Ace Of Hearts has run Group class times on several occasions and did so again at Windsor. I do hope he is now stepped up to pattern company because that means he'll encounter small fields far more often.

YES PROCLAMATION IS BRILLIANT - BUT WILL HE WIN AGAIN THIS YEAR?

Anyone who saw PROCLAMATION (44) surge from last to first to take the Sussex Stakes will have been mightily impressed. It was undoubtedly one of the best performances of the season - both visually and on the clock. It merited a third successive Group 1 speed rating from me for Jeremy Noseda's charge, and his fastest time yet.

My concern about Proclamation involves his next two likely targets - the QEII and the Breeders' Cup Mile. Both these races as I see it are unlikely to suit him.

The QEII is invariably a very fast run race and it takes place over a very stiff mile. So it's hardly surprising that the vast majority of winners have been middle distance horses. Indeed the last two QEII winners both previously won Group 1 races over a mile and a half. Proclamation was stopping in the closing stages at Goodwood and he tired really badly the only time he was asked to go ten furlongs. Therefore I have to wonder whether he'll really get home at Ascot.

The Breeders' Cup Mile presents a very different problem for Proclamation. It's a US turf race and US turf races are virtually always run like contests on the Polytrack. They invariably feature a pedestrian early gallop followed by a sprint over the last couple of furlongs. Seeing how Proclamation pulls for his head in slow run races and is still inexperienced enough to continue the habit I rather doubt that he'll settle well enough to do himself justice at Belmont.

If there was a Breeders' Cup winner in the Sussex Stakes I'm convinced it was runner-up SOVIET SONG (43). Funny enough though, the race I really fancy her for is not the Breeders' Cup Mile but the Filly & Mare Turf. Banks Hill demonstrated that the ideal European runner for this race is a miler like Soviet Song. Banks Hill tired both times she ran beyond a mile in Europe. But thanks to the slow early pace of US turf races she was able to use her speed to out sprint her rivals over ten furlongs in the Filly & Mare Turf. I think the same would be true for Soviet Song. In fact I'd rate her a banker in the longer race but only an outsider in the Mile.

THE FAST PACE HELPED AZAMOUR

AZAMOUR (44) is almost boringly consistent on my speed ratings. He earns a speed rating between 43 and 45 virtually every time he runs and did so again when taking the King George.

The thing is Azamour clearly benefited from being held up well off the furious early pace at Newbury. Rank outsider Norse Dancer (43) was also right out the back, and I think it's highly significant that he managed to run second. His big run suggests that both he and Azamour moved up due to the way the race was run and the way they were ridden.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not knocking Azamour. He is one of the best horses in Europe in recent years. It's just that I'm beginning to suspect he needs a strong pace to bring out the best in him.

Third-placed BAGO (43) was ridden exactly as I would have recommended before the race. He stuck much closer to the pace and kicked for home two furlongs out. I'm strongly inclined to think that he would have finished at least a very close second if the early pace hadn't been so furious and if he hadn't been so close to it. Add to this his interrupted preparation and I have to say this was a big run by the French champion.

Personally I've always felt that Bago would have a tremendous chance of translating his form to dirt. His pedigree and style of racing certainly give me every hope in this regard. This being so I do hope his connections shoot for the Breeders' Cup Classic which they would have done last year if Bagoi had recovered from the Arc in time.

PLECTRUM CAN PLUCK A BIG HANDICAP

PLECTRUM (39) ran away with a class 4 handicap at Glorious Goodwood in pattern class time. Even when he's re-assessed by the official handicapper it looks likely he'll still be eligible for handicaps well below his true class. In fact almost any handicap is below the true class of Plectrum if my speed ratings are any guide. I can see Peter Chapple-Hyam winning a big race with this one.

SOUND BREEZE IS UNDER-RATED

SOUND BREEZE (39) ran seriously fast to beat older horses in a Class 2 handicap at Pontefract. The win took his record to three wins from three tries beyond sprint trips, and I doubt that he's stopped winning yet.

Sound Breeze is only three and could be anything. Right now he looks like a ready-made winner of a big handicap.