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JUDDMONTE WASN'T THAT BAD
It's tempting to endorse the general view that this year's
Juddmonte International was a good race. After all the time wasn't that great.
However NOTNOWCATO (39) did actually put up the fastest time on the York card,
and he would almost certainly have run faster if CHERRY MIX (35) hadn't set such
a moderate early pace.
My speed ratings show that Notnowcato's three fastest runs
have all been on yielding or softer ground. His other big run came when he ran a
good second to David Junior in the Eclipse. The logical inference is that he
needs something which takes the emphasis off speed – either cut in the ground
or a steep uphill finish – to produce his best. This pretty much rules him out
of all the big international races that are run in the last few months of the
season as they are run on dead flat tracks and invariably on fast ground. Nonetheless,
next time he gets a bit of cut in the ground I'd give him a real shot of winning
another Group 1.
MARAAHEL (39) only just went under, and it now seems likely
that ten furlongs is his best distance. He's run quite a few good races at a
mile and a half. But he's never run anything but a great race over ten furlongs
and his best speed ratings have all come over the trip. He's now lost all eight
group 1's that he's contested but is good enough to win something big on my
ratings.
I think it was a shrewd move to lay off BLUE MONDAY (37)
for seven weeks. This meant he was able to avoid the fast ground that prevails
during the Summer months and be brought back to peak for an Autumn campaign. He
did well to run a good third as all his six wins have been scored off a 36 day
or less break. I'd bet on him coming on for this run and winning something big
before the season is out.
Dylan Thomas (36) confirmed my low opinion of him by
running fourth. He can run a bit quicker but he's not really a Group 1 horse if
the clock is any guide. I'd be surprised if he won again.
LAVEROCK (36) ran as if he was unsuited by the relatively
slow early pace. And looking back at my past ratings for him this does seem
credible. Although he's excelled in small fields, all his best form has come in
more strongly run races.
Cherry Mix was responsible for the moderate early gallop
and this is surprising. As a proven stayer he'd surely have been better suited
to a much stiffer test of stamina than he made it. Cherry Mix has a tremendous
record in the latter part of the season when there's cut in the ground and has a
good chance of winning a third Group 1 before the season is out.
FAIR ALONG STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR THE CESAREWITCH
Last week I wrote that I believed FAIR ALONG (39) was the
best handicapped horse in training. I also suggested that he'd have a great
chance in the Cesarewitch. I should also have noted that his low official
handicap mark was actually a problem as he'd need to go up nearly a stone to be
sure of making the cut for the big race. This is surely why his connections
brought him back again quickly in another minor staying handicap in which the
jockey allowed him to come home by a huge margin instead of easing him up in an
effort to protect his handicap mark.
This run is probably enough to get Fair Along into the
handicap for the Cesarewitch. But, if he does come out again before then I would
not oppose him. And I still see him as a great prospect for the big race itself.
He's now run two big Group class times in a row and is clearly just as good on
the flat as he was over hurdles. Indeed, next season I see him developing into a
Cup horse.
LONDON EXPRESS LIKES IT SOFT
LONDON EXPRESS (38) put up a Group class time to win a
valuable 12 furlong handicap at York. He clearly appreciated the cut in the
ground and had won by eight lengths the last time he'd run on anything but good
or firmer. There's plenty of soft ground to be found at this time of year so
London Express should be winning again.
RED ROCKS A MORE LIKELY LEGER CANDIDATE THAN YOUMZAIN
I 'knew' that RED ROCKS (37) was going to win the Great
Voltiguer Stakes. His two fastest speed ratings were bigger than any of his
rivals and the fact
that he was the only entrant to have placed in Group 1 company looked highly
significant. You can see this by checking the record of Voltigeur runners that
previously reached the first four in Group 1 races from 1995
2004 Rule of Law WON 11-8
Let the Lion Roar second
2003 Powerscourt WON 5-1
Brian Boru second
2001 Milan WON 6-1
Storming Home second
2000 Air Marshall WON 7-2
1999 Fantastic Light WON 4-1
Bienamado second
Glamis third
1997 Silver Patriarch second (by half a length)
1996 Dushyantor WON 3-1
Mons second
Even Top unplaced
1995 Pentire WON 4-5
Singspiel second
Luso third
Somehow though Red Rocks managed to get caught on the line
after sailing into the lead full of running with two furlongs to run. His
trainer feels he went on too soon and simply idled in front, and I'm prepared to
buy this explanation. He still looks the one to beat in the Leger to me.
Youmzain (37) does have a great turn of foot. But my
ratings tag him as a Group 2 horse. And the stats for the Leger suggest this is
right. He's already won over 1m 5f and it's almost unheard of these days to run
a truly Group 1 three year old at 1m 5f + in any race but the Leger itself.
Scores of horses have tried to win the final Classic after running at such a
distance in the last sixteen years and none have succeeded.
ALEXANDROVA CAN RUN FASTER
ALEXANDROVA (37) didn't have to run her fastest to take the
Yorkshire Oaks. But she did demonstrate that she can beat high class rivals off
a moderate early pace. This bodes well for her chances in the Breeders' Cup
Filly & Mare Turf, as does her eight length win around the tight turns of
Tralee. This year the big US race is to be run at Churchill Downs which is just
seven furlongs in circumference, and it is invariably run at a crawl in the
early stages.
Alexandrova lucked out in that the going had dried out to
good according to my estimates when she ran on the second day of the big York
meeting. Horses with the turn of foot she has rarely perform as well on soft
ground because the surface blunts their acceleration. Alexandrova's two sub-par
efforts on genuinely yielding or softer ground bear this out. So I'd oppose her
with some confidence if she encounters soft ground for the Prix l'Opera.
Runner-up SHORT SKIRT (35) had beaten Alexandrova on
yielding ground in the Musidora and had earned a Group 1 class speed rating from
me at two when winning on similar ground. Connections talked about the
possibility of running her in the Park Hill Stakes with a penalty but I think
she deserves another shot at winning a Group 1. She's entered in the Prix
Vermeille on the tenth of September and would have a serious chance in that race
if she the soft ground she needs.
ALLEGRETTO (34) looked likely to get outpaced when the
gallop picked up, and so it proved. But she stayed on well again in the closing
stages, once again demonstrating her stamina. She still looks a great candidate
for the Park Hill Stakes.
WASSEEMA CONFIRMS HER CLASS
WASSEEMA (39) is one of the top 3YO fillies on my speed
ratings and confirmed her class by taking a hot Listed race over a mile at
Sandown. I note with interest that she is in the Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket.
I'd give her a real chance of winning that race if she gets the fast ground she
needs.
SPEEDY SAM LIVES UP TO HIS NAME
The late Reg Akehurst once said that what he wanted most as
a trainer was an improving three year old in the Autumn. Karle Burke looks to
have exactly that in the lightly raced SPEEDY SAM (38) who came within two
fifths of a second of Goodwood's nine furlong course record when winning a hot
three year old handicap at the track last week. Speedy Sam is still on a very
lenient official mark so I'd bet on him winning a few more times before the
season is over.
CARADAK ISN'T THAT FAST
Caradak (38) has never run faster than he did to win the
Group 2 Celebration Mile according to my speed ratings. So I wouldn't go
assuming that he'd have run a faster time if the early pace had been quicker. If
he could run any faster than this he'd have surely done it by now in one of his
13 lifetime starts.
George Washington (37) has also never run much quicker than
he did here if my numbers are right. So I wouldn't go combining all the excuses
offered for his run and assuming they add up to a big performance. The thing to
bear in mind is that seven of the last thirteen 2000 Guineas winners before
George Washington never won again after the big race. George Washington was the
slowest 2000 Guineas winner in years on my ratings and he's had a serious
injury. I'm happy to bet that he's going to make that negative stat read eight
out of fourteen.
ANNA PAVLOVA IMPROVES
ANNA PAVLOVA (38) ran a good time to take the Galtres
Stakes by three lengths and clearly appreciated the longer distance. She's only
lost three times in eight starts since her racecourse debut and each time was in
a very slowly run race according to my speed ratings. With hindsight it now
seems clear that she's been crying out for a greater test of stamina, so the
Park Hill Stakes looks an obvious target.
GREEN ROOM IMPROVES ON SLOWER GROUND
GREEN ROOM (37) showed her best ever form to win a hot 3YO
handicap at Salisbury in pattern class time. Trainer John Dunlop attributes the
improvement to the slower ground, and there's plenty of that around at this time
of year. This being so I'd bet on Green Room winning again soon and earning
black type before the season is out.
JUNIPER GIRL (36) ran a big race for a horse officially
rated only 70 to chase Green Room home. She looks likely to win again soon.
CROCODILE DUNDEE AS GOOD AS EVER
CROCODILE DUNDEE (40) earned some good Group 2 class speed
ratings from me back in 2004. And he showed he's as good as ever by winning a
red hot renewal of the August Stakes at Windsor.
He'll surely be winning something better soon.
Runner-up KHYBER KIM (40) keeps on bumping into very smart
horses and did so again here. He's now earned Group 2 class speed ratings from
me four times in a row and just has to win something decent before long.
OUININPHJA (39) ran his fastest race of the season on his
first start for Ian Semple. I'd be looking for him to win in Listed or Group 3
company soon.
WINDSOR KNOT (38) tired to finish fourth, and this makes me
think he's better at ten furlongs.
SMART ENOUGH LIVES UP TO NAME
SMART ENOUGH (40) won a very good mile handicap at York in
Group 2 class time. His sole loss in his last four starts came when he finished
a close fourth in a stamped of 30 runners for the Brittannia at Royal Ascot. He
looks to have every chance of getting another furlong so he must be one of the
top candidates for the Cambridgeshire now.
BUACHAILL DONA SHOULD WIN GROUP SPRINTS
BUACHAILL DONA (40) won a red hot 3YO sprint handicap at
York in Group 2 class time. He was apparently plagued by sore shins at two when
he lost his sole start by just a neck. And he got repeatedly impeded when again
losing by a neck at Goodwood's big meeting. So with a bit of racing luck he'd
now be unbeaten in five starts.
In the long term I'd expect to see Buachaill Dona winning
Group sprints. Meanwhile he looks set to win a big sprint handicap.
If the photo had gone the other way TERENTIA (40) would
have been winning for the fifth time in six starts at five furlongs. Terentia is
a light-framed sort and her trainer has said she's not the sort of horse that
takes much racing. Indeed, all her wins have conformed to what I call 'the rest
pattern'. That is, her first two starts of the season and then with a break of
at least five weeks thereafter. This being so I'd be inclined to oppose Terentia
if she's brought back again before late September. But I'd expect to see her win
in pattern company before long.
NEW GUINEA DOES IT AGAIN
NEW GUINEA (38) stepped up to Listed company to earn a
Group class speed rating from me for the third time in a row at Chester. He won
clearly and continues to look a smart and under-rated performer. I'd happily
support him in a group race next time and would have liked to have seen him go
for the St Leger rather than this race.
NOT FOR ME HAS A REAL CHANCE IN FLYING CHILDERS
NOT FOR ME (37) won a five furlong Listed juvenile event at
York in a time that marks him out as a key player in the Flying Childers Stakes
at Doncaster. He ran only a length per mile off the two fastest five furlong two
year olds on my ratings (Abby Road and Hoh Mike) and clearly had something to
spare at the finish.
GOLD SPIRIT IS GROUP CLASS
GOLD SPIRIT (37) won a two year old Conditions race at
Chester in a time that would win most Group 2 and 3 contests for juveniles. He's
obviously improved for the step up to six furlongs and should have a big chance
in the Sienna Stakes at Kempton which is apparently his next target.
RAVI RIVER LOOKS USEFUL
RAVI RIVER (34) broke his maiden over seven furlongs at
Chester in a time that's Listed class for a juvenile. He holds some fancy
entries and is certainly worth a shot at better company.
QUITO AS GOOD AS EVER
QUITO (42) ran as fast as he ever has to take a strongly
run seven furlong Listed race on rain-softened ground at York. Clearly when
there is cut in the ground and he gets a strong pace Quito is still a very hard
horse to beat. This being so I'd bet on him winning again soon while the ground
is in his favour.
LIGHTNING FLASH (41) ran a terrific race to pull clear of
the rest and run Quito to a length. He'd won both his previous starts and is
capable of winning pretty much anything on this showing. I'd like to see him go
for the Prix Foret where I'd give him a major chance.
DUBAI BUILDER IS PATTERN CLASS
DUBAI BUILDER (36) was backward on his debut according to
Raceform, ran green second time out and pulled too hard on his third start. But
this big scopey sort finally got it together on his fourth outing to win a good
nursery at York in what I rated Group 3 class time for a juvenile at this time
of year. He's due to go for a Listed race in Germany in three week's time and
must have a great chance there.
TAM LIN SHOULD GO FOR THE ARC
WINDSOR KNOT (40) and KHYBER KIM (40) earned good Group 2
class speed ratings from me when chasing home Tam Lin at Newbury. And they did
so again when pulling well clear of their rivals to fight out the finish of a
conditions race at Newmarket.
Make no mistake, these are very smart horses. They're both
worth a shot at Group 1 company. But I suspect they'll be running well below
that level in the immediate future. So they're going to be very hard to beat –
unless they keep taking each other on.
Of course this race makes TAM LIN look even better as it
confirms the quality of the horses he beat at Newbury.
I don't know where Tam Lin goes next. I'm betting it will
be the Prix Niel on Arc Trial day at Longchamp as he's entered in the Arc and
that would be the logical target for a top class middle distance three year old
like him. Amazingly, no bookie is even quoting Tam Lin for the Arc at present.
Then again, they're not quoting Lauro either who will surely be supplemented if
he wins the Grosser Preis von Baden next month which looks likely on my ratings.
Lauro is incredibly fast and has beaten Rail Link who is one of the Arc
favourites. He got struck into when running below form in the German Derby.
TUCKER MUST WIN SOON
Much the fastest race on Shergar Cup day at Ascot was the
Shergar Cup Mile won by PRINCE OF THEBES (40).
Prince of Thebes had been a good third to Spectait when
that one lowered the course record at Goodwood. He may simply need fast ground
but it's interesting to note that he has now run four times in single figure
fields when the official going has had the word 'firm' in it and won every
single time. He qualifies for more big handicaps, but I'd bet on his next win
coming in another small field like this one. And that means he's probably going
to have to step up to pattern company because there are few high class handicaps
which feature small fields.
Runner-up TUCKER (40) looked a very promising horse last
year and bounced right back to his best here on his second start for Walter
Swinburn. It may be that the change of stables has revived him. Or it could well
be he's simply at his best in small fields (11 or less) on straight courses. If
the photo had gone the other way this would have been his fourth win in four
tries over a mile or less in small fields up the straight. In any event, Tucker
ran so fast here he'll surely be winning soon.
BIG RUN BY MULAQAT
MULAQAT (40) won the Group 3 Rose Of Lancaster Stakes in
very fast time. This run makes him one of the top three year olds on my ratings.
It's easy to jump to the conclusion that Mulaqat bounced
back to form because of the first time blinkers. But I suspect it was the good
early pace that helped him more. In a small field where a slow early pace seemed
likely I'd still be inclined to oppose Mulaqat. He seems to be one of those
horses that pulls hard when he sees too much daylight, especially when the early
pace is slow. Having said that, this was a big run by Mulaqat, one that
indicates he'll be competitive in better company.
RAUCOUS CRYS OUT TO BE FOLLOWED
RAUCOUS (37) is a big, rangy sort according to Raceform.
And he's a full brother to a Group placed horse that stayed two miles. So it
makes sense that he would improve when stepped up to a mile and a half. And
improve he did. According to my speed ratings Raucous ran a Listed class time to
take what looked like a very warm maiden at Ripon from BEHLAYA (37).
Given his build, and the fact that he's trained by Tom
Tate, it seems likely Raucous will go jumping some day. Meanwhile though there
are some very decent stayer's races to be won with him. As Tom Tate said, he's
“a lovely horse, who might win a Chester Cup one day.” I wouldn't disagree
with that assessment and rate Raucous as a horse that must be followed.
Runner-up Behlaya has finished second to smart horses in
Britain, Ireland and France. It's pretty amazing that she's still a maiden after
16 runs. I find it hard not to see her winning within her next run or two.
ENGLISH BALLET MIGHT WELL BE GROUP 1 CLASS
ENGLISH BALLET (36) won the Sweet Solera Stakes in very
decent time for a two year old running seven furlongs. She'll need to run a
smidge faster to take the Fillies' Mile but rates as one of the best candidates
we've seen so far for that race on this showing. She might well be Group 1
class.
SRI PEKAN TOO SHOULD SCORE IN PATTERN COMPANY
When Paul Cole debuts a two year old at Goodwood it's
usually a good one, and this proved to be the case with SRI PEKAN TOO (36). The
colt improved markedly for the step up to a mile when winning a strongly run
maiden on Lingfield's Polytrack. The performance was Group class on the clock
and no doubt we'll be seeing Sri Pekan racing at that level soon.
Runner-up BEVERLY HILL BILLY (34) is a slam dunk to win a
maiden on this showing.
TAKITWO CAN MAKE IT THREE
Since Britain switched over to all-electrical timing a
couple of years ago a lot of horses have been denied the course records they
ought to have been credited with. As someone who has timed thousands of races by
hand I can tell you that hand times are on average half a second faster than
electric times. This is because the electric timer is activated by the starter
throwing the lever which opens the stalls. The human eye doesn't detect the
runners leaving the stalls till about half a second later.
One of two things should happen. Either half a second
should be added to all the old course record. Or two sets of record times should
be kept – one for the old hand times, the other for the new electric times.
This is the solution they went for in Australia.
I give this preamble because this week we have yet another
example of a horse that should be credited with breaking a course record in
TAKITWO (36) who won in very fast time for a class 5 handicap at Folkestone over
seven furlongs.
Takitwo has now won his last two races and all three times
he's run over seven furlongs on turf and looks very capable of winning again at
what seems to be his specialist distance.
Runner-up YOUNG BERTIE (36) looks even more interesting
from a betting standpoint as he's still a maiden after seven runs and his
official handicap mark is only 61. On the face of it his form looks little
better than that of a selling plater. But the clock says he has improved markedly.
It could well be that Young Bertie has just discovered his
specialist distance. This would make sense as he's a half brother to Lucky
Strike, the joint fastest sprinter in Germany. Lucky Strike's best trip is seven
furlongs. Then again Lucky Strike has won over a mile too, so it could be that
Young Bertie has simply been crying out for further than the six furlongs he was
formerly raced over and will improve again at a mile. In any event he looks a
slam dunk to win a race at this class level next time.
FERMION IS GROUP 1 CLASS
The Godolphin filly REUNITE (40) looked a good thing to
take the Listed Chalice Stakes at Newbury. But although she again ran a time
that ranks as Group 1 class for a 3YO filly she got beat by Coolmore's FERMION
(41).
Fermion has now won both times she's gone middle distances
and is joint fastest of her age and sex on my ratings. Her current Group entries
are over ten furlongs but it looks clear that she's better at the mile and a
half of this race. I'd be very interested in her chances in the Prix Vermeille
or indeed in any race. She's awfully good if my ratings are any guide.
Reunite's connections said they might cut her back to ten
furlongs following this loss. That would be a mistake according to my ratings
which indicate she actually improved slightly for the step up to a mile and a
half. I hope she takes up her engagement in the Yorkshire Oaks as she'd have a
real chance on the clock.
INTRIGUED (39) ran a close fourth to the brilliant Divine
Proportions in the French 1000 Guineas back in 2004 but missed all of last
season. By running a good third here she showed that it was a good decision to
bring her back for another shot at big races. She's entered up in five Group 1
races, three of them in Germany. So I suspect that trainer Sir Mark Prescott may
be aiming to repeat the tremendous success he enjoyed in big German races with
another filly, Albanova, in 2004. Intrigued doesn't need to improve much to give
her a real chance of emulating her former stablemate, and seeing that this was
only her second run in over 18 months, improvement does seem likely.
Fourth placed IDEALISTIC (38) seems to be at her best in
high Summer. In fact she'd won all three of her previous stars in August,
including the prestigious Queen Mother's Cup. She's entered in the Shergar Cup
and looks a strong candidate for that.
RUBY WINE (38) has been unlucky to come up against Group 1
fillies in each of her last two starts. She ran well enough here to indicate she
should take a Listed or Group 3 soon, probably over a mile and a half.
ROAD TO LOVE SMASHES TRACK RECORD
i was convinced that ROAD TO LOVE (42) would be forced to
go off too fast thanks to the big field in the valuable ladbrokes.com stakes at
Goodwood. So I felt rather smug when he surged clear early on, going like a bat
out of hell. But instead of stopping as I'd expected he just went further and
further ahead in the closing stages. He ended up lowering the treack record set
by Moon Ballad by three fifths of a second – and it's worth remembering that
Moon Ballad went on to win the world's richest race, the Dubai World Cup.
The going allowance I based Road To Love's huge speed
rating on assumes the ground was riding what I call 'superfast' at Goodwood
(i.e. It was speeding up the runners by as much as is physically possible). So I
can absolutely guarantee Road To Love is as fast as I've rated him. And that
means he's the joint fastest three year old in Europe. This leaves me struglling
to come up with a new theory to explain his losses, some of which have been by
huge margins.
The best I can do at this stage is to say that Road To Love
only just gets ten furlongs and doesn't do so at Newmarket because the lengthy
homestraight and wide open spaces of the track prompt him to run too free. For
the same reason he ran below form at sscot over 12 furlongs, didn't get home at
Pontefract, the stiffest track in the country and failed to last on soft ground
at Doncaster. I know, it's not a great theory, but it fits the facts. And it's a
pity because the obvious target for Road To Love now would be the Champion
Stakes at Newmarket.
Make no mistake, this was the fastest performance by a
three year old in a handicap in at least a decade. Road To Love is a proper
Group 1 horse.
If he were mine I'd be taking Road To Love to America where
his kamikaze style of front running would make him almost unbeatable in the
desperately slow run turf races they have over there. He'd go so far clear
they'd never get to him. But wherever he goes he's now a real force to be
reckoned with on fast ground at ten furlongs.
Road To Love's stablemate DESERT REALM (38) ran fast enough
to have won almost any previous running of the race and has obviously improved
for the step up to ten furlongs. His handicap rating is getting a bit high, but
the Weight For Age allowance would still enable him to get in against older
horses on decent terms in a big handicap like the Cambridgeshire. I fancy his
chances of taking a race like that and would bet on him winning in pattern
company before long.
Third-placed PEARLY KING (37) has now run in two freakishly
strong handicaps in a row (he was eight lengths back in the King George V won by
Linas Selection at Royal Ascot). He'd won his three previous starts beyond
sprint trips and is fast enough to win a big handicap or a Listed race.
SPECTACULAR SPECTAIT
It's fascinating to consider what would have happened if
SPECTAIT (42) had contested the Sussex Stakes instead of the Golden Mile. In my
assessment he would definitely have won because the going was exactly the same
both days and Spectait broke the course record while Court Masterpiece ran half
a second (two and a half lengths) slower.
As I see it Spectait is a Group 1 horse. And this isn't the
first time he's run really fast. He ran only a couple of ticks slower than this
when scoring at Kempton a few runs back. He earned another Group class speed
rating off a seven week break when off slow and getting into traffic behind the
brilliant Echo Of Light on his run before the Golden Mile.
The question now becomes 'why has Spectait' ever lost? A
horse this fast should have nothing but wins against his name below Group 1
class.
The only decent theory I can come up with is that Spectait
is best around tight tracks. He did win at Sandown but that was in a 0-85
handicap. He's lost his other three starts on galloping tracks. He's won four of
the last five times he's run on tight tracks, with that good run against Echo Of
Light being his only loss. It's a reasonable theory but there's not yet enough
evidence to be sure of it. It could be Spectait has simply needed racing
experience and we shouldn;t read too much into his old form.
Normally a horse like Spectait would be stepped up to Group
company right away. But since he's with 'handicap king' Sir Mark Prescott, one
has to believe he's considering one more shot at another huge handicap prize.
The races of this type coming up next month are the Grand handicap de Deauville
(France's most valuable handicap), the Irish Cambridgeshire and the September
Handicap at Leopardstown. Then there's the real biggie, the Cambridgeshire in
October. The concern I'd have is that every one of these races is run on a
galloping track. Nonetheless I'd think long and hard about opposing Spectait in
any of them – or in any other race come to that.
DUNELIGHT (41) has done nothing but improve. He won in
Group class time at Ascot on his latest run and ran even faster here to get
within a half length of Spectait. This performance marks Dunelight out as one of
the best 3YO milers. No doubt he'll be stepped up to Group company now, but that
shouldn't stop him winning again.
PRINCE OF THEBES (40) ran a terrific race to take third. My
read of his form is that he's best on fast ground around a turn. After all he's
now won three of the four times he's run around a turn when the official going
has had the word 'firm' in it, with this very smart performance being his sole
loss. He's lost all eleven times he's run on straight courses. I'd want to be on
him next time he gets what seems to be his favoured conditions. And, from a
punting persepctive, it'd be nice if he had a losing run or two on straight
courses in the meantime to build up his odds.
SIR GERARD (39) confirmed that he's a Group class three
year old by running fourth despite meeting traffic from his near impossibly bad
draw. The way he was running on at the finish makes him look a very interesting
candidate for the Cambridgeshire over a furlong longer. But I imagine he's going
to run in Group company instead. Indeed I note that he's entered back over this
course and distance in the Celebration Mile at the end of the month. He'd surley
have a great chance there.
YEATS DOES IT AGAIN
YEATS (41) won the Goodwood Cup in seriously good time for
a stayer these days. A couple of decades ago this sort of performance was almost
commonplace in Cup races. But nowadays so few horses genuinely get longer than a
mile and a half that it marks Yeats out as one of the best stayers we've seen in
years. Having said that, I wouldn't rate him as a slam dunk to take the Irish
Leger. There are several horses around that I could see beating him there. One
of them is Reefscape.
REEFSCAPE (36) finally got the fast ground and strong pace
he needs, so I was disappointed to see him lose. I'm now beginning to wonder
he's best on tracks with short run ins like Longchamp. After all, since his
maiden win at Chantilly, he has never won outside of France's top track. But a
more likely explanation is that he simply failed to handle the undulations and
tight turns of Goodwood, seeing that he ran in snatches. If he does go for the
Irish Leger I'd fancy his chances as my ratings still indicate he's the fastest
stayer in Europe. And I'd want to be betting him to beat Yeats if the pair meet
when Reefscape attempts to win the Prix du Cadran for the second time,
Runner-up GEORDIELAND (39) was a shrewd purchase from
France. Over there my speed ratings indicate that all his best form came in
strongly run races. Whenever he accounted the slow early gallop that's so common
in France he ran below his best. The step up to two miles was clearly a good
idea as the extra trip and fierce gallop enabled him to equal his lifetime best
speed rating.
Geordieland's stamina makes him look a very decent prospect
for the Melbourne Cup which is now his big target.
SOULACROIX LOOKING GOOD FOR THE EBOR
SOULACROIX (39) won a very strongly contested mile and
three quarter handicap at Glorious Goodwood in seriously fast time. He's earned
good Group class speed ratings from me on three separate occasions now and seems
at this best over this distance. Basically the only times he's ever lost between
12 and 15 furlongs the early pace has been too slow or the going too soft for
him.
I hope Soulacroix takes up his engagement in the Ebor as he
looks to have a great chance in the race – far better than he'd have in the
Mebourne Cup which is apparently his big target. He'll meet better horses in
Australia than he would at York, and I still need convincing that he really gets
the two miles.
PRESS THE BUTTON STILL WELL HANDICAPPED
PRESS THE BUTTON (37) won a good mile handicap in fast time
at Goodwood, earning a Listed class speed rating from me. This was the third
time the three year old has won in three starts on turf tracks where the going
has been good or faster this term. Clearly he's improved since his juvenile days
and is capable of winning better races than this.
THIS WAS A WEAK SUSSEX STAKES
There aren't many Group 1 races that regularly fall short
of their advertised class. The Prix de la Foret and Maurice de Gheest, the Derby
Italiano, the Middle Park and the Phoenix Stakes are the only ones that come to
mind. Certainly the Sussex Stakes is not among their number. But there's no way
I can rate this year's renewal of Goodwood's big mile race better than Group 2
on the clock.
The winner Court Masterpiece (40) had won just two of his
previous fourteen starts in Group company. The second Soviet Song (39) looks to
have deteriorated with age. And they were chased home by a motley crew which
included a couple of members of this year's very weak group of three year old
milers in Aussie Rules (37) and Araafa.
I had expected ECHO OF LIGHT (32) to win because he was the
only runner to have earned Group 1 class speed ratings from me in his recent
starts. But he had to be taken down early and probably went off too fast before
finishing a moderate sixth.
I confess that Echo Of Light now has me puzzled. It could
be that he simply boils over before a big crows and that this explains his two
dreadful runs (here and in the Champion Stakes). It's possible he needs to be
fresh in order to produce his very best. It could be that he needs to race on a
track that favours front runners more than Goodwood (where pace-setters do very
poorly according to the stats). And it might be that he simply requires a dead
flat track. There's just not enough evidence to say yet. All I can say is that
Echo Of Light has twice earned Group 1 speed ratings from me in his recent
starts and merits serious consideration in any race he contests for the rest of
this season.
NUMERIC RUNS A BIG NUMBER
NUMERIC (38) earned a Group class speed rating to take a
good three year old handicap at Goodwood. He'd been denied a clear run on his
first try beyond ten furlongs and pulled hard in first time blinkers on the
second occasion. But he got it all together this time to beat some decent
rivals.
Narola, the dam of Numeric has a terrific record. She's
produced nine foals to date and they've all won, three of them winning or
placing in Listed company. On this showing Numeric looks likely to be earning
more black type for his dam in the sales catalogues.
Runner-up NEW GUINEA (38) had boloted up by seventeen
lengths on his previous start and ran another big race to get within a neck of
Numeric here. It's hard to say exactly what circumstances suit him best at this
stage but he certainly looks worth following.
BEAU NASH (37) had finished miles behind in his last two
starts, so I have to assume something was amiss. He ran fast enough here to win
a Listed race or a good handicap.
COOL CUSTOMER (37) has run nothing but good races since
stepped up to middle distances and put up another decent performance to finish a
close fourth. His speed figures just keep getting. This coupled with the fact
that he's now run six big races out of six at longer trips prompts me to think
Cool Customer may well be capable of even better in time.
BORDERLESCOTT AN ABOVE AVERAGE STEWARDS' CUP WINNER
After looking at the stats In thought I knew how to pick
the winner of the Stewards' Cup. I found that six of the eight fastest times in
recent years had produced a winner from one of the three highest draws. With the
going riding lightning fast it seemed that all one had to do was pick between
the three highest drawn horses – Mutamared, Excusez Moi and Tax Free. All
three came within half a length of winning the big race but somehow
BORDERLESCOTT (40) managed to get past them all and win from a middle draw.
Borderlescott is a horse that needs to have cover in his
races according to his trainer. So it's probably significant that he's won four
of the last five times he's run in fields of 17 or more and lost all three times
he's contested smaller fields since stepped up to class 2 events.
The Stewards' Cup has a history of throwing up future Group
winners and Borderlescott looks like becoming another if his jockeys can find
the right way to ride him in smaller fields. Meanwhile there's probably one more
big sprint handicap in him before his official handicap rating gets too big for
this sort of race.
OUIJA BOARD'S TIME NOT SO MAGICAL
The epic duel between Ouija Board (38) and Alexandra
Goldrun (38) in the Nassau Stakes produced rave reviews. But the time indicates
both fillies ran below their best. As I've mentioend before, I reckon Ouija
Board prefers shorter run-in. However there was no real excuse for Alexandra
Goldrun not going a bit quicker. Seeing that she hasn't run a really big speed
rating in a year and has lost all but one of her last eight races I'm beginning
to wonder whether Alexander Goldrun might not have deteriorated with age.
Fourth placed CHELSEA ROSE (35) also ran below form. It
could well be that she prefers a more galloping track as she's run a whole bunch
of big races at Leopardstown and the Curragh. For this reason I'd like to see
her take up her engagement in the Yorkshire Oaks where she might well be capable
of springing an upset at big odds.
DUKE OF MARMALADE GETTING INTERESTING
I gave STRATEGIC PRINCE (27) a Group 1 speed rating for his
win in the July Stakes, and he showed that he merited that assessment when
taking the Group 2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood in great style. Unfortunately the
first couple of furlongs were run slow – possibly because Silent Waves took
the jcokeys by surprise by not making the running as expected. This hurt the
final time. Nonetheless Strategic Prince impressed by moving ominously well
through the race and going clear quickly when asked.
Thanks to the moderate early pace Strategic Prince was able
to sprint the last couple of furlongs. So it was a particularly good effort on
the part of DUKE OF MARMALADE (27) to gain so much ground on him in the closing
stages. Watching the race between the pair it felt like one was seeing a Guineas
prospect in the winner and a Derby candidate in Duke Of Marmalade. Duke Of
Marmalade certainly ran like he was wanting longer than the seven furlongs and
has to be an interesting candidate for the Racing Post Trophy.
DOCTOR BROWN IS PATTERN CLASS
DOCTOR BROWN (34) cruised home on his racecourse debut in
what is Listed class time for a juvenile. He looks an interesting prospect but I
need to see more before I can figure out how fast he really is and what
circumstances suit him best.
LADY BAHIA SMART IN SMALL FIELDS
LADY BAHIA (39) ran a seriously good time to win a low
grade sprint handicap at Hamilton. I suspect that the reason all her wins have
come in fields of ten or less is that she gets spooked into starting slowly by
the presence of more runners surrounding her in the stalls. She looks a good
proposition to win several more races like this in the near future when she gets
a small field.
THE KIDDYKID CAN WIN AGAIN
THE KIDDYKID (40) won a hot little Listed race at Chester
in Group 2 class time. He actually won a Group 2 last year and is capable of
winning again in that grade on this run. It looks likely that he's best on dead
flat tracks at less than seven furlongs in fields of 11 or less. He's won six of
the fifteen times he's run in these circumstances and run several big races in
defeat. He has yet to win in 21 tries in bigger fields or on tracks with any
gradient. It's also interesting to note that his last three wins have come off a
break of four weeks or more.
INDIAN MAIDEN (39) might well have won if she'd made her
run earlier and not had to come wide. Indeed I'd thought she was a certainty.
Prior to this race
Indian Maiden had run nine times around a turn or a dog leg in fields of eleven
or less at five or six furlongs when she'd had a vaguely recent run. And she'd
won nine times out of nine. Whatever the going, whether it was grass or AW, off
a slow pace or a strong one she'd always managed to find a way to win – but
not this time.
Indian Maiden has run fast enough to win a Group 1 race.
But there aren't any Group 1 races at five or six fulrongs around a turn in
Europe. And there are precious few Group races of this description. In America
there all the big sprints are around a turn, and if she were mine that's where
I'd take her, and I'd make it California because field sizes are so small there.
BECKERMET (39) is another horse that's very smart in small
fields. He's surely going to find a race sometime soon and it might even be the
Sprint Cup at Haydock if there are eleven runners or less sinc he's previously
run a bit faster than he did here.
MOONE CROSS (38) did very well for a three year old filly
to finish a close fourth. I imagine this run has ruined her handicap mark. But
that's no problem becuase she's fast enough to win a pattern race on this run.
In fact back home in Ireland there are very few sprinters that can run as fast
as her, so I reckon her prospects are bright.
CHICKEN SOUP FOR THE PUNTER
CHICKEN SOUP (38) ran away with a class 3 handicap at
Chester in Group 3 time. He's clearly a very progressive horse and might well
have won four of the last five times he's run 7.5 furlongs or a mile with better
racing luck – and all three times he's run for his new yard. Even with a huge
penalty he'd still be very well handicapped and has surely not stopped winning
yet.
ZENDARO BETTER THAN A SELLING PLATER
One of my faourite bets is when a horse run a fast time in
a selling race and then steps up to handicap company. However fast they ran
punters invariably under-rate them, so they make excellent bets. A case in point
is ZENDARO ( 35) who won a seller at Muselburgh in ramarkably fast time for the
grade.
This was only Zendaro's third start of the year and my
ratings say he has improved markedly for some reason. I like his chances of
winning a class 4 or 5 handicap next time at nice odds.
IL PENSEROSO SHOULD KEEP ON WINNING
I mentioned IL PENSEROSO (36) here after he'd won his last
start at Perth. Now I've got to mention him again because he's gone and won a
Stratford chase in equally good time. He remains unbeaten in three starts since
joining Alison Thorpe and is still eligible for races well below his true class.
He's going to be tough to beat while the going remains firm and the opposition
soft during the Summer.
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