YORK SETS AN EXAMPLE

I have been banging on for years about the need for British and Irish racecourses to provide us with information about the effect rail movements have on the distance of races. So it is with real pleasure I can report that William Derby, York's Clerk of The Course, has responded. He reported that the rails were moved out 3 metres for the first two days of the Ebor meeting and that this added 6.4 metres to the distance of races at a mile or more.

If I were William Derby's boss I'd be giving him a bonus. He has set an example that all other Clerks Of the Course should follow.

NICE LEGER TRIAL BY HONOLULU BUT ...

The Ebor handicap, like most valuable handicaps, tends to go to a relatively unexposed and lightly raced horse. In fact sixteen of the last twenty Ebor handicaps have gone to a horse with 14 or fewer previous starts.

One trainer who seems to know exactly what sort of horse wins the Ebor is Luca Cumani. In the last eleven years Cumani has run eight horses in the Ebor that had 14 or fewer previous starts. Three of them won. Another three were beaten less than a length.

This year Cumani ran PURPLE MOON (39) in the Ebor, a hose that had ten previous runs. Sure enough he won.

Purple Moon was under a hard drive for all of the final quarter mile and undoubtedly had a very hard race. His record indicates he's best when fresh too. So I'd bet against him with some confidence if he turned out again within the next month. That however looks most unlikely as he is to be trained for the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups.

As I've mentioned before, Purple Moon has run fast enough to win either of his two big Australian targets because European horses have the same sort of edge down under as Aussie sprinters enjoy over our own horses. Put simply, they can outsprint us but we can outstay them.

The one question I had about Purple Moon before this race was whether the short homestraights in Australia would prove long enough for him to unwind his run. He seemed to answer that here as he was committed early in the homestraight and would undoubtedly have won if there'd only been two furlongs from the home turn to the finish as there is at Flemington.

Runner-up HONOLULU (39) had a lot more left at the finish than the winner. Indeed he was full of run and closed strongly. So I'd have no worries about him regressing off this run if he takes his chance in the St Leger.

Honolulu encountered a good deal of traffic in the race. In the early stages he had to be snatched up and lost a length or two. And he had to be switched all over the place to find a run in homestraight, tracking over from the middle of the course all the way to the rail in the process. He was noticeably a bit smaller than most of his rivals, as you'd expect since he's only a three year old. So it's not surprising he had trouble fighting for position.

Honolulu ran as fast here as the winner of the Great Voltigeur. But he did so over the Leger distance which is a thing you don't often see with a three year old. However he still only clocked a Group 2 class time and I have a theory that says he can't win the St leger.

My theory is that these days if a three year old is capable of winning a Group 1 race its connections won't run it beyond a mile and a half before the St Leger for fear of ruining its stud value.

There's good evidence to support my theory: Since 1989 no less than 59 Leger runners have prepped at 1m 5f or more and they've all lost.

DUKE OF MARMALADE HAS MAJOR CHANCE IN IRISH CHAMPION STAKES

Andre Fabre once said that if you're going to use a pacemaker in a Group 1 race it needs to be one that the other jockeys are scared to let loose on the lead. In other words it needs to be capable of winning.

In the King George DYLAN THOMAS (37) had triple Group 1 winner Scorpion to make the running for him. In the Juddmonte International his pacemaker was Song Of Hiawatha, who is Listed class at best.

Song Of Hiawatha set an okay pace for a Listed contest. But his Group 1 rivals were all cruising along comfortably behind him while he was being scrubbed along at some points to set the pace. As a result they had enough left to start accelerating over the last two and a half furlongs.

One thing that Dylan Thomas isn't very good at is gaining ground into an accelerating pace. He needs an honest pace up front to make use of his stamina, especially when he's running less than twelve furlongs as he was at York.

Another thing Dylan Thomas dislikes is any cut in the ground at all. He coped with ground that was only marginally faster at Ascot. But the ground at York was just over that critical edge between good and yielding according to my estimates - just enough to blunt the finishing speed of a horse that relies on its acceleration as much as Dylan Thomas does.

If Dylan Thomas had been able to find a run earlier I suspect he'd have gotten up, even with the ground, the pace and the distance all against him. But he was stuck behind a wall of horses until a furlong and a half from the finish. And he only got out of the pocket when Johnny Murtagh executed a pretty dramatic swerve to his left. Once clear he gained ground all the way to the line and finished full of run. But Authorized had flown.

Dylan Thomas remains the fastest horse in Europe on my speed ratings. I would still regard him as basically unbeatable in any strongly run race on fast ground. He deserves to find that combination at least once more this season and, with his monstrous physique and classy pedigree, is surely going to be very popular as a stallion.

AUTHORIZED (38) was clearly very well suited by the moderate pace. He earned the form book comment 'quickened' for the third time in six starts. It seems that he can cope with the rapid change in pace of a slow run race far better than most horses. In addition his tactical speed gives his jockey the scope to execute race-winning manouvers such as the one Dettori carried out when bringing Authorized across to close the only gap in a wall of horses around Dylan Thomas and bottle him up until after he himself had accelerated clear.

Authorized has been very well managed by his connections. They've avoided the risk of running him on ground that they know would be too fast for him. And, barring the Eclipse, they've run him in all the right races.

Unfortunately it's going to take more than good management and clever race-riding tactics to win with Authorized from now on. Every race he's entered for is going to present a serious challenge. If he were mine I'd skip the Irish Champion Stakes and let the ground dictate a choice between the Arc and the Canadian International. Both those races offer a good chance of getting the softer ground and slower pace that brings out the best in Authorized.

Third placed Notnowcato has been tremendously well placed by his connections to win three Group 1 races even though my speed ratings indicate that he's never run anything better than a good Group 2 class time. He ran his usual honest race but I wouldn't bet on him winning at the top level again.

For me the horse to take out of the race just has to be DUKE OF MARMALADE (35).

With three furlongs to go Duke Of Marmalade was running a very close second. Then, even though his jockey never had to stop riding, he seemed to get intimidated as Dettori brought Authorized across to box in Dylan Thomas. He eased himself back a bit. Then, just as he was doing this, Murtagh switched Dylan Thomas across him. It's hard to tell exactly what happened as the camera angles were switched at this point. But, for whatever reason, Duke Of Marmalade went from running a head second to being last by half a dozen or more lengths in just fifteen strides. He looked decidedly unbalanced, was hanging to his left, and appeared fearful of using the full length of his stride at this point. However about fifty yards later he started stretching out again and began to pick up ground hand over fist. He was never going to get back up there in time but was really flying at the finish, gaining about four lengths on the third Notnowcato in very short order and passing him a couple of strides after the line. No question he was much the freshest horse at the finish.

This, his first run beyond a mile, will have taught Duke Of Marmalade a lot. He's a big, handsome colt who looks a serious player for the Irish Champion Stakes to me. It will take a fair bit of persuading to make me bet anything else in that race.

YES, PEEPING FAWN COULD BEAT THE COLTS

I keep predicting that PEEPING FAWN (41) won't be able to hold her form, and she keeps proving me wrong. The most recent occasion was in the Yorkshire oaks where she earned a Group 1 class speed rating from me for the fifth time in a row (Group 1 class for a filly that is. This run was still just shy of earning the average rating I award male Group 1 winners).

I'm now inclined to believe that the reason Peeping Fawn has been able to hold her form without being rested is that she's actually running well within her capabilities. In other words she may very well be able to run a good deal faster. If I'm right that would make her a threat to the very best colts.

The caveat is that Peeping Fawn has beeing running in strongly run races. It's the norm these days for middle distance Group 1's involving colts to be slow run affairs. Peeping Fawn lost three very ordinary races that were slow run as a two year old. This makes me concerned about her ability to handle a slow run race now.

However, Peeping Fawn has proved me wrong so many times before I don't want to predict she's going to get beat again. Now that she's going longer trips she seems capable of doing nothing but winning. It could well be that she'll be able to do so off a slow pace as well at a mile and a half.

HUGE DEBUT RUN BY SPACIOUS

You rarely see a juvenile filly run as fast as SPACIOUS (36) did on her racecourse debut at Leicester. The run marks her out as one of the best of her generation and a terrific prospect.

A big, scopey filly, Spacious is by Nayef who stayed a mile and a half out of Palatial a seven furlong specialist. So I'd bet on her being best at a mile or ten furlongs next year.

Spacious has been slow to come to hand according to her trainer James Fanshawe who is convinced she will make a better three year old. If that's so then Spacious may well prove capable of winning a Group 1 next year because this performance was very solid Group 2 class according to my ratings.

A word of warning though. Spacious took time to come to hand this year. And her sire and dam didn't start winning again till the Autumn of their three year old seasons after being useful two year olds. This being so I'd be cautious about betting Spacious in the first half of next season but predict she'll bounce back in August or September.

SENSE OF JOY STILL THE ONE TO BEAT IN FILLIES MILE

SENSE OF JOY (23) earned a Group 1 speed rating from me when hosing up on her debut off a strong pace. Last week at Goodwood she showed that she could also cope with an exceptionally strong pace when taking the Group 3 Prestige Stakes at Goodwood.

An impressive aspect of Sense Of Joy's success was that she was happy to settle in the early dawdle even though most of her rivals were pulling for their heads. She raced like an old hand.

When the sprint to the line finally began two furlongs out Sense Of Joy was several lengths behind in fourth or fifth position. But she accelerated impressively to steadily close the gap and was always going to get there. In the closing stages she was edging away smoothly and clearly had a fair bit in hand.

I'm not surprised that trainer John Gosden says he wouldn't risk Sense Of Joy in the Fillies Mile if it came up soft. Horses with acceleration like hers rarely perform to their best on soft ground. On anything faster though I'd be awfully reluctant to beat any filly to beat her.

EXTRAORDINARY DEBUT BY SCREEN STAR

SCREEN STAR (38) equalled the best speed rating I've given a two year old beyond five furlongs all season when blasting eleven lengths clear of winning rivals on her racecourse debut at Redcar. It was a truly extraordinary performance. There's absolutely no question that she is a Group 1 horse.

Watching the race I got the impression I was looking at a future middle distance performer. She doesn't look to be built to produce the change of gear that Sense Of Joy demonstrated on the same day at Goodwood. Nonetheless she has to be a big threat to that filly in the Fillies Mile as she ran faster by a length per mile than that one managed on her racecourse debut according to my speed ratings.

PROBABLY NO LEGER WINNER IN THIS VOLTIGEUR

The Great Voltigeur has a reputation as being a highly significant St Leger Trial. But the fact is only 14 of the last 40 St Leger winners actually ran in the race.

I rather doubt that this year's Voltigeur winner LUCARNO (39) is going to win at Doncaster. Sure he ran as fast as most Leger winners do before taking the Classic. But he looks like an out and out mile and a half horse to me.

None of the last 20 St Leger winners ran a mile or less as three year olds unless it was on their racecourse debut. Lucarno has run a mile twice. He was also cut back to a mile and a quarter for his next to last start. And thirteen of the last fourteen St Leger winners ran twelve furlongs in each of their last three starts before taking the big race. The exception, Scorpion, ran once over ten and a half furlongs.

My research shows that horses need to be conditioned through racing to run a particular distance these days. And it looks like Lucarno has been conditioned to run shorter than the Leger trip.

Having said that I should add that Lucarno is a big, strong horse that's clearly improving. It's perfectly possible that he'll prove competitive in Group 1 company in the near future. I just don't think it will be over a mile and three quarters.

Runner-up YELLOWSTONE (38) has an identical profile in that he's run a mile twice this year and gone a mile and a quarter recently. And, like Lucarno, his trainer has expressed concerns about whether he has the stamina for longer trips.

Yellowstone isn't very big, and this seemed to give him problems here as he was blocked for a run and had to wait for a gap and then switch when a bigger horse could have pushed his way through. He's only won one of his last ten starts and just doesn't look a Group 1 horse on my ratings.

MACARTHUR (38) is the one most people seem to be taking out of the race for the Leger. And from the way he finished here and got outpaced on his previous start over shorter I'd have to agree that the Leger trip is going to suit him. However, if there really was a Leger winner in this year's Voltigeur (which I doubt) then I'd plump for the fourth horse ACAPULCO (37).

Acapulco had to be taken up briefly inside the last furlong when Macarthur swerved in front of him. The cots him some momentum. It took a while for him to get going again but towards the finish I liked the way he was moving.

MAHLER (37) was given every chance to make use of his stamina. But he couldn't stretch away from the field when set down early in the homestraight. It would be interesting if he were kept in training and aimed at the big Cup races next year. But I suspect that the Leger trip is going to prove too short for him. Besides no horse has finished fifth or worse in the Voltigeur and gone on to win the Leger in the last 40 years.

DUFF SHOULD GO FOR CHALLENGE STAKES

DUFF (39) clocked a time that would give him a real shot in Newmarket's Challenge Stakes when winning a hot Listed race at York.

I suspect that Duff is at his best on straight tracks or those with a homestraight of half a mile or more. I say this because his best previous run according to my speed ratings came on his only previous UK start when he ran up the straight at Redcar.

There aren't many races on straight courses or with long homestraights run in Ireland over Duff's specialist trip of seven furlongs. So I think it would be a smart plan for him to be shipped over to Britain a good deal more often in future. If he makes the trip to run in the Challenge Stakes I'd certainly be very interested in his chances.

Runner-up ADVANCED (39) is clearly better over seven furlongs than the six furlongs he's mostly run over. He ran much his fastest ever race here according to my ratings. Two of his three previous fastest runs were over seven furlongs as well. The only time he's run fast at six furlongs was in the Ayr Gold Cup, a race that's run at such a searching pace it often suits seven furlong horses.

KINGSGATE NATIVE NOT THAT FAST

One little anomaly I've noticed with my speed ratings is that every year there are one or two juveniles that are able to run freakishly fast at five furlongs - as fast as they do later in their careers. Lyric Fantasy and Superstar Leo are the ones most people will think of. But there have been quite a few others. Last year for example I gave Wi Dud a speed rating of 41 over the minimum distance. He hasn't bettered that rating this year but it made him the fastest two year old of last season on the clock.

For this reason I tend to separate two year olds into those that run fast at five furlongs and the more serious long term prospects that clock fast good times over six furlongs or more. History shows that fast five furlong two year olds don't tend to do well at three.

I give this preamble because KINGSGATE NATIVE (40), a two year old, has just gone and won the Nunthorpe Stakes.

I noted on his last run that Kingsgate Native was the joint fastest two year old on my speed ratings. This run confirms that assessment.

Maybe Kingsgate Native will prove good enough for the Abbaye. But my ratings indicate he won a very much sub-par Group 1 here. And you don't find many sub-par Group 1's at five furlongs. So I'll be opposing Kingsgate Native at Longchamp.

The number of two year olds taking on older sprinters has dropped dramatically over the last couple of decades in Britain and Ireland. But the five wins scored by juveniles against older rivals in Italy and France in the last ten years shows that it's worth taking a shot with a smart juvenile sprinter in a WFA race. No doubt the example of Kingsgate Native will encourage more British and Irish trainers to follow suit. And that will make racing more interesting.

ECHELON BEST FRESH

ECHELON (39) surprised me when winning the Celebration Mile. But when I looked at her form afterwards I spotted two obvious patterns that should have alerted me to her chances.

Firstly it's clear that Echelon is best fresh. She seems to run to what I call the rest pattern. That is she is good for her first two starts off a three month plus break but then needs a rest of at least five weeks to run well again. She's now won the last six times she's been fresh in this way at nine furlongs or less.

Secondly Echelon does seem to like undulating courses with downhill sections. She's now won all four times she's run at Goodwood, Epsom or Lingfield. No doubt she'd also excel at Chepstown and Brighton as well if only those tracks staged races for her.

Echelon could probably manage one more win this season if she were rested. And I note with interest that she's entered in the Sun Chariot Stakes in October at Newmarket, a track she also seems to like. If she's not run between now and then I'd be interested in her chances there.

Runner-up CESARE (38) would also benefit from a rest I suspect. Seven of his eight wins have conformed to the rest pattern and he has run progressively slower in each of his four starts this season according to my ratings. The QEII comes exactly five weeks after this race so it's possible he'll bounce back to his best there. But, seeing the steady decline in his ratings, I'd prefer a longer break till his next start.

Third placed BLUE KSAR (36) had earned his two best speed ratings from me at nine and ten furlongs and remains unbeaten in four starts on yielding or softer ground. So it wasn't surprising he got done for speed at a crucial stage over a mile on good ground here. If he goes back up to a mile and a quarter and gets cut in the ground I'd be wary of opposing him in any race below Group 1 class.

PRIDE OF NATION DESERVES A SHOT AT A GROUP 1

Salisbury's Sovereign Stakes has been the most strongly contested Group 3 run in Britain in each of the past three seasons according to my speed ratings. It deserves Group 2 status and would surely attract many of the top milers if it were upgraded to Group 1. It falls at the perfect time for horses being prepped for big Autumn targets.

This year's winner was PRIDE OF NATION (40), a horse that has earned write ups from me here on numerous occasions. He was heavily bet after rain turned the ground yielding. But I don't think he needs cut in the ground as many seem to believe. I reckon he only does so well on softer ground because it amplifies the lengths between the runners and makes it easier to maneuver.

Pride Of Nation has worn ear plugs on his last two starts. This suggests that he dislikes the company of other horses. Add to this the fact that he was brought wide for his run in a big field at Sandown on his previous start and had encountered traffic problems in two other starts when lots of runners lined up and the conclusion seems obvious: He prefers smaller fields.

So far Pride Of Nation has run seven times in fields of fifteen or less. He won five of these seven starts. One of his losses was a photo finish defeat on his racecourse debut when he pulled too hard for his own good. The other was when he ran a close third in a Listed race to two horses that earned Group 2 class speed ratings from me. That race came off a nine month lay-off, so he probably needed the run.

Pride Of Nation has earned Group class speed ratings from me in six of his last nine starts. I've given him speed ratings that would win most Group 2 events on three occasions, including on his last two starts.

In this race Pride Of Nation was always going strongly but, as has happened before, came off a straight line once he got the front and saw daylight. He bumped the runner up but was always edging clear from him while still full of run so deserved to keep the race.

If he were mine I'd be looking at stepping Pride Of Nation up to Group 1 company. My initial thought was that the best race to do this would be the Woodbine Mile in October. However, having watched the video of the Salisbury race and reviewed his form, I suspect he'd be outpaced in that contest. A European horse needs to be effective at seven furlongs locally to have a chance at a mile in North America due to the slower early pace of turf races on the other side of the Pond. And, if anything, I'd say that Pride Of Nation runs as though he wants to go up in trip not down.

Now I'm inclined to think that the two best targets for Pride Of Nation are both at Longchamp's big Arc meeting. I'm talking about the Group 2 Prix Daniel Wildenstein over a mile or the Group 2 Prix Dollar over an extended nine furlongs. Either contest would provide a good stepping stone to Group 1 competition, and my preference would be for the longer race.

Runner-up ORDNANCE ROW (39) was unlucky to come up against such a good rival on his first try in Group company. He keeps on running seriously fast and will surely win a Group race in the near future. I still need convincing that he can handle tracks with pronounced undulations like Epsom and Goodwood. He would have been winning for the fourth time in a row at flatter venues beyond seven furlongs but for bumping into Pride Of Nation both literally and figuratively here.

Third placed OLYMPIAN ODYSSEY (38) has never run faster than he did here according to my speed ratings. But he ran like a Group 1 horse having a prep. He was always moving well and was closing the gap nicely towards the finish, still full of run.

My gut feel is that Olympian Odyssey can run quicker than this. So I'll be very interested in his chances next time. I suspect that he needs cut in the ground. After all he suffered a stress fracture on firm ground in the Prix du Jockey Club, scored his only win on soft ground and has run his three fastest races on what I rate yielding or softer going. Godolphin are clearly aiming to give Olympian Odyssey every chance at finding his ground as they've currently got him entered up in Group races in Britain, Ireland, France and Germany. Wherever he runs next I'd be interested in his chances.

CALDRA (37) was also moving smoothly at the finish in fourth place. This was a terrific run off a ten month lay-off and confirmed that Caldra has trained on.

As with Olympian Odyssey, this is the fastest Caldra has run. But again it looked like he'd be able to run faster with this run under his belt. I see him taking a Group race before the season is out and would like to see him sold to race in North America where he'd be eligible for the top races (he's barred from running in Group 1 races in Europe as he's a gelding).

I think I've been reading fifth placed THOUSAND WORDS (36) all wrong. I was impressed with his effort at Goodwood last time as he was moving so well at the finish. I figured he wanted a longer trip than seven furlongs. Now I strongly suspect he's actually best at that distance and that it's a straight course he's really in need of.

Here Thousand Words showed tremendous early speed. He set a searching pace and kicked clear impressively with three furlongs to run, opening up a four length gap on his pursuers before tiring in the final furlong.

Thousand Words is a big, long striding sort and I reckon he's best on a straight course as he can use the full length of his stride all through the race.

So far Thousand Words has won three of the four times he's gone seven furlongs on a straight course and lost all six times he's run longer or around a turn. The obvious target for him looks to be the Challenge Stakes at Newmarket. I'd fancy him strongly there.

PAPAL BULL (39) has attracted a good deal of negative comment in his time. But he impressed me with his win in the Geoffrey Freer Stakes.

The early pace was rather too strong for the ground and everything bar Papal Bull started to tired badly with two furlongs to run. Papal Bull kept on very strongly however, and the further they went the better he looked. He ended up fairly cruising home.

I think that Papal Bull's jockey was right to say after the race that his mount could develop into a Cup horse. Clearly stamina is his strong suit.

RED EVIE BEST OVER SEVEN FURLONGS

RED EVIE (39) just scrambled home in the Hungerford Stakes. And I'm now convinced that the seven furlongs of that contest is her best distance. She's won all five times she's run seven furlongs but has only scored at a mile when the early pace has been moderate or slow.

I'll be opposing red Evie with confidence if she steps back up to a mile for the Matron Stakes. But I'll be very interested in her chances if her connections go through with the plan to run her in the Prix Foret over seven furlongs.

SUNLEY PEACE: THE NEXT PERSIAN PUNCH?

I thought I knew the winner of the first race at Newmarket last Saturday. CAPE SECRET (38) had won all four times he'd run on good to firm or faster ground and earned Group class speed ratings from me.

SUNLEY PEACE (41) ran the second fastest time ever for the course and distance to earn a simply monstrous speed rating from me. He is a serious candidate for the big Cup races on this run.

However, judged by the comments of trainer David Eslworth, it seems likely that Sunley Peace will be going hurdling instead of staying on the flat. I hope that he reconsiders because on my numbers Sunley Peace shapes up as a very good replacement for the stable's grand old star Persian Punch.

If he does go hurdling I'd expect Sunley Peace to prove almost unbeatable in juvenile events. Meanwhile though there are some very decent flat races to be won with him. The most obvious target for him is surely the Cesarewitch. I'd rate him a good thing for that race and fervently hope he goes for it.

Cape Secret is a much bigger horse than Sunley Peace and his trainer has mentioned before that he would make a good jumping prospect. But he's so well handicapped at present he'll surely be taking a valuable flat race soon.

The Cesarewitch looks the obvious target for Cape Secret too. If he got his ground in that race he'd be a key player.

BAUER PUTS UP TERRIFIC TRIAL FOR EBOR

BAUER (39) equalled his best ever performance according to my speed ratings when an unlucky photo finish loser of a red hot handicap at Pontefract. He was denied a clear run yet still only went under by a neck while giving chunks of weight to the clearly very smart AJAAN (39).

The winner had to break the course record by two fifths of a second to hold off Bauer. And it was no soft course record either. The previous holder was High Action who went on to run fourth of twelve in the Ascot Gold Cup.

Bauer was trapped behind a wall of horses as the first and third came around the outside and kicked for home off the final turn. When he got clear he was around eight lengths behind them and seemed to have no chance of catching them as they were both going so strongly. However he lengthened and accelerated in the way that only a high class horse can and bore down on the the pair in remarkable fashion through the last furlong and a half, quickly passing one and then slashing the other's advantage rapidly as they headed towards the line.

This was a terrific trial for the Ebor by Bauer. The only concern for me about his chances in York's big handicap is that his official rating is so low he may not get into the race. But, seeing that his mark would have made the cut in eight of the last ten Ebors, I guess it's not that much of a problem. It simply ensures that he'll get in with bottom weight or close to it - which is pretty amazing seeing that this was the second time he's earned a speed rating between Group 2 and Group 3 class from me.

STARRY MESSENGER CAN EARN BLACK TYPE

The good three year olds have usually worked their way out of maidens by August. But a useful pair that had yet to shed their maiden tags fought out the finish of a Ripon non-winner's race the other day while pulling a long way clear of their pursuers.

The two horses in question were STARRY MESSENGER (36) and EARL MARSHALL (36) who have both improved with every run.

Starry Messenger is a filly, so given how fast she ran, she's clearly capable of earning black type. And with her ritzy pedigree I'm sure that's the route her owners will now be taking. If she can simply hit the first four in something like the Galtres Stakes she'll be worth a bunch of money as a broodmare. The way that she prevailed in a long duel here indicates she's definitely a classy sort. So I'd bet on her winning a Listed race before the season is out.

Earl Marshall carried his head high, went both left and right under pressure and has already acquired visors. So he's likely to be opposed in the betting despite his smart form next time out. However he's only had four runs and I think it's way too early to say that he's 'ungenuine'. Few horses really are and the very term attributes human qualities to an animal which I think is a mistake. Horses don't know where the winning post is or even realise that they're in a race. They invariably exhibit the kind of behaviour Earl Marshall did here due to inexperience. With time Earl Marhsall should work out of his quirks and be winning decent races. Certainly he'll be tough to beat in a maiden next time.

HALICARNASSUS MIGHT JUST BE A GROUP 1 HORSE

RIO DE LA PLATA IS SPECIAL

RIO DE LA PLATA (37) earned a speed rating that's borderline Group 1 class for a two year old when he took Goodwood's Veuve Clicquot Vintage Stakes. And the way he put a high class field away was breathtaking. He simply cruised to the front rapidly once asked and drew away comfortably despite running green.

My gut feel from watching this race is that Rio De La Plata could have won by at least another couple of lengths. This being so I would be very surprised if Rio De La Plata gets beat as a two year old - unless he's asked to race on soft ground which I'm not sure he can handle. Horses with a stride pattern like his don't often handle mud, especially when they have such an electrifying turn of foot.

I don't see any problem with Rio De La Plata staying the extra furlong of the Guineas. Unless something goes wrong between now and next Spring he really ought to take that race. Meanwhile though there are Group 1 juvenile races to be won. And, as I see it, they are all there for the taking by this brilliant horse.

Runner-up LIZARD ISLAND (35) would have been a good winner in a normal year. He pulled four lengths clear of the rest in a vain effort to get to the winner and should be capable of winning a Group race. He gave me the impression that he'll improve for the step up to a mile.

DONEGAL (30) ran nowhere near as fast as he had last time. But he had obvious problems going the pace and didn't have the acceleration to stop himself being squeezed out at one point. However he rallied to good effect in the last furlong to pass several horses and take third. I think his connections have made the right decision to lay him off till the Autumn and target Saint-Cloud's two Group 1 two year old races. The one where he'd have the biggest chance is surely the Criterium De Saint-Cloud as it's over a mile and a quarter. That would suit him as he's surely a future middle distance Group winner.

HUGE RUN BY SENSE OF JOY

We may well have seen the top two year old colt and filly last week. Soon after Rio De La Plata staked his claim at Goodwood SENSE OF JOY (36) ran out an amazingly easy winner at Newmarket on her racecourse debut.

Sense Of Joy earned the biggest speed rating I've given a juvenile debutante all season. And she did so in breathtaking style, simply running away from her rivals when shaken up with a furlong and a half to go. She showed a big long stride when she was set down for her run. However I'm nor convinced she's an Oaks rather than a Thousand Guineas prospect. The speed and acceleration she showed here were fantastic, more than enough to give her a real shot at Newmarket next Spring.

Sense Of Joy deserves to start favourite for the Fillies Mile on this run. She earned the same speed rating as I earlier gave Muthabara. But my gut feel from watching both fillies win is that Sense Of Joy will turn out the faster. Certainly the 25-1 being offered by Betfred about her chances in next year's 1000 Guineas looks way too big.

PEEPING FAWN JUST KEEPS ON WINNING

I couldn't believe that PEEPING FAWN (40) would hold her form at Goodwood. But she did to take the Nassau Stakes from the brilliant French filly MANDESHA (39).

Peeping Fawn was again inclined to shift her ground once she hit the front, just as she did at Epsom. But she kept going strongly to repel the late charge of Mandesha and never looked in serious trouble.

This was the fourth consecutive Group 1 speed rating that Peeping Fawn has earned from me. I can't recall a three year old filly doing that in the last decade or more.

Okay this is a weak year for three year olds. But this run puts Peeping Fawn within a length per mile of the best of her generation on my ratings. Only Authorized has run faster.

With so many Group 1 races for fillies now available at middle distances I imagine that Coolmore will be keen to keep Peeping Fawn to her own sex for the rest of this season. This being so I'm hard pressed to say just how anything is ever going to beat her.

Mandesha is admirably consistent and ran yet another big race to chase Peeping Fawn home.

VERACITY HAS A SHOT IN LEGER

My theory that proven stayers can no longer win the St Leger is due to be tested in no uncertain terms this year following the great run of VERACITY (40) in the Goodwood Cup.

In the last 16 runnings of the St Leger all 59 runners that previously ran 1m 5f or more all lost. But in none of those 16 renewals of the final Classic did I rate any of the proven stayers much better than Listed class on my speed ratings. This year it looks more than likely that Veracity and Mahler, the horse that beat him in the Queen's Vase, will be joint fastest.

Veracity was still full of run when ALLEGRETTO (40) swept by him late to score narrowly and just didn't have the time or the acceleration needed to respond to the challenge.

Sheikh Mohammed who bred Veracity, was one of the first major European breeders to include German stallions and broodmares in his mating selections. Now everyone is doing it. The benefit is that it injects much needed stamina into their stock.

The downside could be seen from the way that Veracity was unable to quicken in time here. But his sire Lomitas showed that German breds can be brilliant at shorter trips too and aren't just value for money recruits for the jumping game. So I wouldn't discount the possibility of Veracity taking the St Leger at all. He's run faster with every single run according to my speed ratings and I'm not convinced he's stopped improving yet.

Whatever happens at Doncaster, next year Veracity will surely be a major player in the Ascot Gold Cup and all the other top staying races.

Allegretto does nothing but stay and probably benefited more from the searching early pace than any other runner. She refused to settle in the Ascot Gold Cup where the early pace was slow.

My gut feel from watching her race is that Allegretto will find the distance of the Irish St Leger too short. If she's going to win at Group 1 level this year it will surely be in the Prix du Cadran over two and a half miles. The danger there will the slow early pace the French race is likely to be run at. But if she can be settled at the back and covered up as she was here her late charge will be tough to repel.

FINALMENTE (39) has met traffic problems in big fields. But he's done better being ridden more prominently this season. He kept out of the crowding once more by running in second place here and kicked for home five furlongs out once the pacemaker tired. He went close and looks sure to win a Cup race within his next few runs.

PURPLE MOON HAS A REAL CHANCE IN CAULFIELD CUP

PURPLE MOON (40) won a red hot renewal of the Glorious Stakes at Goodwood in Group 2 class time. In fact he ran quick enough to have a real chance in the Caulfield Cup since European middle distance horses have the same sort of edge down under as Australian sprinters have back here. Indeed the European Listed performer Taufan's Melody was good enough to win the Caulfield Cup, and Purple Moon is undoubtedly a bit quicker than him according to my speed ratings.

A couple of things are obvious about Purple Moon. Firstly all his wins have come off a break of six weeks or more, and it's probable he needs this sort of gap between his runs. Secondly he clearly doesn't like any cut in the ground.

What I can't decide at this point is whether or not Purple Moon needs a really long homestraight to unwind his run. So far he's won all three times he's come into a race off a break of six weeks or more on firm ground at tracks where the homestraight is half a mile or more. He's yet to run up to form in four starts where the homestraight is shorter. The thing is you can excuse all those losses on the grounds of the going, the distance or lack of freshness.

The answer to whether or not Purple Moon needs a long homestraight is vital to his chances in the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups as the homestraights in Australia at short. Even at Flemington (where the Melbourne Cup is run) which is advertised as having a 'long' homestraight it's only two furlongs from the home turn to then finish. Still, if he were mine I'd be making the journey. Purple Moon showed here he's good enough to win a big race in Australia. He's also shown previously that he can win in the kind of sprint finish he'll have to cope with down there.

Funnily enough you could argue that third-placed STOTSFOLD (38) is the opposite of Purple Moon in that his best form has been on tracks with short homestraights. He's won four of the five times he's run on tracks with homestraights shorter than three furlongs on the fast ground he seems to need. His sole loss was a three parts of a length second.

IMPERIAL STAR (38) split the above pair to take second, earning a Group class speed rating from me for the second time in a row. It looks clear that he's best on tight tracks because before his last two starts he'd won all three previous times he'd run on such courses but run unplaced all three times he'd gone on galloping ones. He deserves to find a race soon.

WAKE UP MAGGIE AWFULLY SMART AT SEVEN FURLONGS

WAKE UP MAGGIE (40) is one of the fastest fillies in training according to my speed ratings. And she proved it by winning a red hot renewal of the Oak tree Stakes at Goodwood.

THIRD SET (39) had the highest draw of all this year and won the race clearly. But he ran so fast I don't think his success was simply due to his stall position. Indeed he's now won four of the five times he's run seven furlongs or more on the fast ground he needs (he was hampered in his sole defeat). He's a proper Group horse according to my speed ratings and looks capable of taking another big handicap.

PIPEDREAMER IS GROUP CLASS

PIPEDREAMER (38) pulled too hard when losing at Newmarket. So it's not surprising that his jockey was determined to anchor him at the back of the field and get plenty of cover in a big handicap at Goodwood last week. He visibly yanked him back twice to be a dozen or more lengths behind entering the straight.

With a couple of furlongs to run Peipedreamer looked to have altogether too much cover as he was trapped behind a huge wall of horses. But half a furlong later his jockey had managed to switch him into the clear up the centre of the course. And from there he finished like a train to sweep clear in the closing stages, winning with a fair bit in hand.

I have no doubt that Pipedreamer will be winning Group races before long. I'm also sure he'll have no problem staying at least a mile and a half from the way he was finishing over a strongly run ten furlongs here.

I'm not yet sure that Pipedreamer likes the wide open spaces of Newmarket as they invite a hard puller like him to go off too fast. But I'd be happy to bet him to win pretty much anything anywhere else next time. He's a very promising horse.

CHAMPIONSHIP POINT GETS BETTER AND BETTER

CHAMPIONSHIP POINT (39) continued the improvement he showed at Royal Ascot to storm home in a hot ten furlong handicap at Goodwood. Clearly he's right back to the smart form he showed as a two and early three year old. I like his chances of taking a Group race next time out.

FREMEN LOOKS SURE TO WIN AGAIN SOON

There are always some very interesting horses that win the lesser races at Glorious Goodwood. And this year the one to catch my eye is FREMEN (38).

Fremen is seven years old but still looks highly progressive. My read of his form is that he's best on good or faster ground, needs a turn and wants a mile or more. He lost his first two races in these circumstances but has won six of the subsequent seven times he's encountered them. I rate him capable of taking a valuable handicap in these conditions.

KASUMI (37) was unlucky to come up against such a smart rival in a mere class 3 handicap. She finished second in pattern class time and had won the three previous times she'd encountered good or faster turf. I'd fancy her chances of landing an upset win in a Fillies' Listed race. If she sticks to handicap company and gets her ground next time out I wouldn't care to oppose her.

TARIQ SHOULD GO TO AMERICA

TARIQ (39) won the Group 2 Betfair Cup at Goodwood in decent time for the class. He's now won all three times that he's run seven furlongs this year. But, like most of the top seven furlong horses he's going to be hard to place. There just aren't that many opportunities over the odd distance. So it's understandable that his connections have entered him in the Sprint Cup at a furlong shorter and the Celebration Mile at a furlong longer.

The problem for Tariq is that there are stacks of faster horses at six furlongs and he's unlikely to stay a mile on pedigree. His sire has had no winners from 40 tries beyond seven furlongs. His dam was unraced and has had no other runners. But her own dam has produced horses that invariably stay no further than the average winning distance of their sire's progeny.

If he were mine I'd be shipping Tariq to America. Over there the turf races are run at a slow early pace and the turns are invariably very tight. As a result US punters prefer to see imports that run a mile locally having seven furlong form in Europe. Experience has taught them that European turf runners need to go a bit longer when they run in the States.

Tariq's tremendous turn of foot is exactly what's required to win mile turf races in America.

The ideal opportunity for Tariq in America would be the Grade 2 Oak Tree Mile at Santa Anita on October 7th. This race looks likely to be weak for two reasons. First it clashes with the much more valuable Shadwell Turf Mile run the previous day. Secondly fields in Califonian races are rarely very big due to the limited population of horses in the State (caused by tax reasons).

If Tariq won the Oak tree Mile he would automatically become qualified for the Breeders' Cup Mile under the new 'win and you're in' policy tied to a series of qualifying races. Otherwise his connections would have to pay a huge supplementary fee to get him into the big.

Runner-up ASSET (39) had earned Group 1 class speed ratings from me in each of his two previous starts. But those races were over six furlongs. He's not quite as good over seven. He looks a big player in the Sprint Cup next time if he gets the fast ground his trainer says he needs.

Third placed DUNELIGHT (38) had won all three times he'd enjoyed an uncontested lead before this run. And he looked certain to make it four out of four a furlong out as he'd kicked two lengths clear and was full of run. All his previous wins since his juvenile days had come over a mile however and he got caught here. Back over a mile he's always going to be tough to beat in any race where nothing takes him on up front.

No horse was moving better at the finish than A THOUSAND WORDS (38). He came from second last and closed steadily from second last place to take a close fourth. He's a big, long-striding horse and just didn't look capable of responding quickly enough over this short a trip. I think he needs at least a mile now, quite possibly ten furlongs. Certainly I will be very interested in his chances if he takes up his engagement in the Celebration Mile on August 25th.

Australian import MUTAWAAJID (29) pulled like a train before fading pretty badly. The thing to bear in mind here is that in Australia, as in America, they tend to go really slow and then sprint the last three furlongs. So the form Mutawaajid showed at seven and eight furlongs down under is almost certainly misleading. Over here he surely needs to cut back to six furlongs and quite possibly five. When he does I'd pay serious attention to his chances. Australian sprinters are the best on the planet, and any horse capable of winning an Australian six furlong Group 2 is likely to be a serious threat in any European race at that trip or shorter.

ZIDANE THE FASTEST STEWARDS' CUP WINNER IN YEARS

There's almost no difference between the top sprint handicappers in Britain and the horses that contest the big Group 1 sprints. So it wasn't particularly surprising that ZIDANE (41) clocked a fast time to win the Stewards' Cup. Even so his performance is still worthy of mention as he earned the biggest speed rating I've given a Stewards' Cup winner in years.

Zidane is a relatively lightly raced horse. And many of his losses can be explained by bad draws. For a horse that comes from as far back as he does a good draw is essential. It's well nigh impossible to maneuver away from a bad draw when you're fighting your way through heavy traffic. For this reason I suspect that Zidane will be winning more often in Group races than he has in handicaps because he'll be running in generally smaller fields. Indeed I expect him to develop into a serious contender for the July Cup by next year.

I don't really know where runner up BORDERLESCOTT (41) goes from here except to the Ayr Gold Cup, the race mentioned as his most likely target by connections. He needs cover in his races, and it seems clear he also prefers a searching early pace. These things are normally only available in handicap sprints which attract a big field like this race and the Ayr Gold Cup.

Borderlesscott has won four of the last seven times he's run in handicaps where seventeen or more have lined up and gone close in all three of his losses. He's been beaten all nine times he's run in smaller fields or in conditions races above class 4. This being so I'd bet on Bordlerlescott losing his starts between now and the Ayr Gold Cup. But he'll be a big threat in the big race itself.

KNOT IN WOOD (40) was only just behind Borderlescott in third and also looks to have a major chance of compensation in the Ayr Gold Cup. He's actually run a smidge faster than this according to my speed rating on softer ground. So if it turns up yielding or softer at Ayr he'll probably be my choice for the big race.

THAT'S HOT (40) ran a huge race for a filly to finish a close fourth. She looks to be best fresh. So the next time she comes into a race off a five week plus break I'd be wary of opposing her.

FLEETING SPIRIT HAS GOOD CHANCE OF FOLLOWING UP IN FLYING CHILDERS

I mentioned FLEETING SPIRIT (38) here after she'd won on her debut in fast time. Sure enough she followed up by taking Goodwood's Molceomb Stakes in even faster time from KINGSGATE NATIVE (38). In doing so she and the runner up equaled the biggest speed rating I've given a two year old so far this season. But that's not really as impressive as it sounds. It is the norm in each season for two or three juveniles to do this over the minimum distance.

It's the big speed ratings over six furlongs or more that have real long term significance. Five furlong speedballs like Fleeting Spririt and Kingsgate Native invariably fail to cut it against older horses (though they often bounce back as four or five year olds).

Nonetheless the winner clearly has a good chance of following up this success in the Flying Childers over this trip. Equally the runner up looks the one to beat in the Cornwallis Stakes.