DRILL SERGEANT COMMANDS RESPECT

DRILL SERGEANT (38) won a valuable ten furlong three year old handicap at Beverley in Group 3 class time. After making all the running at a searching pace on the testing ground he kept on strongly to repel the late challenge of ALBAQAA (37).

This was Drill Sergeant's best run to date. And, given the stamina he displayed here it's probably significant that his two wins have come over ten furlongs with cut in the ground while his best effort in defeat was over a mile and a half at Royal Ascot.

I suspect Drill Sergeant will need soft ground to produce this level of form over ten furlongs in future. But, seeing how well he ran over twelve furlongs on firm ground at Royal Ascot, I'm not sure he needs a testing surface at longer distances. In any event he's going to have to step up to pattern company soon where he'll always be a threat to lead all the way, especially in small fields. Meanwhile I've little doubt that Mark Johnston will soon be executing one of his favourite manouvers by putting Drill Sergeant into another valuable handicap, this time against older horses, and exploiting the generous weight for age allowance as he has so often in the past at ten furlongs plus.

This was Albaqaa's first run at a middle distance, and it produced his best effort yet. IN the first furlong he was on the outside of the field, seeing plenty of daylight, and pulled hard. So his jockey quickly switched him back in behind runners to secure some cover and Albaqaa consented to settle. He came through strongly from the back up the straight. But once he got close to the front he started to run around a bit, shifting his ground to the right as he carried his head that way. His jockey was unable to stop him bumping the third placed Meeriss. However, despite continuing to hang, Albaqaa closed nicely and looked a much fresher horse than the winner as they crossed the line.

Albaqaa has pulled hard and shifted to the right before. But these are behaviours that young horses like him normally work their way out of as they gain experience.

Albaqaa won by four lengths the only previous time he ran beyond a mile and looked to be ideally suited by the ten furlongs of this race. My ratings indicate he could win a valuable handicap. But right now his official rating is so low I doubt that he'd get into another one as they're all going to be against older horses where WFA would force him out of the handicap. In lower grade races he's going to be tough to beat and could easily set up a sequence of wins.

MIDNIGHT CRUISER IS GROUP CLASS

MIDNIGHT CRUISER (35) didn't clock a fast time when breaking his maiden over seven furlongs at Newbury. But he showed impressive acceleration to go away from his rivals in the last furlong after setting an ordinary gallop. He actually came home a bit faster over the last three furlongs than Shaweel did in the Gimcrack Stakes over a furlong shorter trip on the same card. Adjusting my rating for this indicates this was a Group class effort by Midnight Cruiser.

Midnight Cruiser is a muscular, well proportioned sort that clearly has speed as well as stamina.

I don't think Midnight Cruiser needs cut in the ground to produce his best. He fairly flows over the ground like a fast ground performer. And horses with a turn of foot like his invariably prefer a quick surface.

It's tough to tell exactly how good Midnight Cruiser is off this run as he so obviously outclassed his opponents. My gut feel is that he'll prove just shy of Group 1 class, though at this stage I wouldn't want to bet too heavily on that.

GRANDE ANNEE WANTS TEN FURLONGS

Australian and American horses are the most speedily bred on the planet. So a horse by an American sprinter out of an Australian sprinter has no business going longer distances, especially when everything else on the dam's side was a sprinter as well.

However I have no hesitation in saying that despite her speedy pedigree GRANDE ANNEE (36) is crying out for the step up to ten furlongs following her win over an extended mile at Windsor.

Grande Annee raced at the back of the field in a strongly run race and was under strong pressure from soon after halfway. In the last couple of furlongs she just didn't have the speed to take three openings and eventually had to be switched to the rail where there was a big gap. She took it and proceeded to gain ground steadily, moving strongly. She ended up just getting there on the line.

Grande Anne is a pretty deep chested sort with a long stride. She has the build of a ten furlong horse and certainly ran like one here.

So far Grande Annee has twice earned a rating of 36 fro me. That's a length per mile shy of Listed class. But the fact that she's been able to earn the same rating in back to back races and has done so while staying on really strongly suggests to me that over ten furlongs, perhaps a bit more, she's going to be capable of winning a valuable race.

SHAWEEL A SUB PAR GIMCRACK WINNER

My speed ratings indicate that Shaweel (35) was a sub par winner of the Gimcrack Stakes. And the way he had to be drive right out to score tells me he's not likely to improve on this effort. I rather suspect that horses who finished behind him will turn out better.

Foremost amongst these is MARINE BOY (22) who had earned a proper Group 1 speed rating from me when scoring over the same course and distance a few weeks earlier.

DANEHILL DESTINY WAS THE BEST HORSE IN THE LOWTHER

DANEHILL DESTINY (31) was not suited to the slow early pace and wild sprint finish of the Lowther Stakes. She's a great big strapping filly that lengthens rather than quickens. When the pace picked up at halfway she was flat to the boards and hard to manouver. Johnny Murtagh used her size to barge his way off the rail but she was never going to be able to pick up at the pace they were going and found herself squeezed out in the closing stages to boot.

On a slower surface or off a stronger pace I'm certain Danehill Destiny would at least have equaled the rating of 36 I've given her before. She remains a very interesting candidate for the Cheveley Park Stakes.

MARMALADE'S RUN PROBABLY AT AN END

DUKE OF MARMALADE (38) became the first King George winner in 28 years to win another Group 1 within six week's of his Ascot success when taking the Juddmonte International. In doing so he stretched his run of Group 1 successes to five. But I have severe doubts about whether he'll be able to equal Mill Reef's record of six Group 1 wins in a row as this was quite a struggle for the Coolmore colt.

PHOENIX TOWER (37) challenged Duke Of Marmalade very strongly in the closing stages and would have got closer than three quarters of a length but for having to fight his way past the winner's pacemaker Red Rock Canyon who denied him a clear run.

Duke Of Marmalade has run a good deal faster than this in the past and probably would have hit a rating of around 41 if Red Rock Canyon had gone a bit faster early. But that's still slower than his peak performances.

I guess there's no real harm in running Duke Of Marmalade again. Two or three losses towards the end of his career aren't going to dent his stud value. But if he were mine I'd be inclined to retire him right now. He'll surely lose form if he's asked to keep on racing.

Phoenix Tower is a wonderfully consistent horse. But it's worth bearing in mind that we're now approaching a time of year when softer ground tends to prevail. Therefore I suspect that if this really good looking fast ground specialist is finally going to win a Group 1 it will be abroad where he's more likely to get the surface he needs. The two obvious targets are the Hong Kong Vase and Breeders' Cup Turf (for which he is qualified without the need for a big supplementary entry fee). Those races are over a mile and a half. But he'll almost certainly need that far at the slower pace of US and Hong Kong racing.

The main horse to take out of the race though just has to be third placed NEW APPROACH (35) who ran remarkably well in highly unfavourable circumstances.

Seeing how keen he is at the best of times, I figured that a lengthy break and the wide open spaces of Newmarket were sure to make New Approach pull like a train. Certainly he did throw his head around in the first furlong. But after that he consented to settle even when taken to run on the outside of the field. Clearly he's beginning to calm down and race in a more disciplined manner.

New Approach did come off a straight line briefly in the closing stages, as he has done before. But when he straightened up he picked off Pipedramer to take third place with amazing ease. That one is a habitual strong finisher. But New Approach cruised past him as if he was having an exercise gallop. He finished too late to have a chance of catching the winner. However I've rarely seen a beaten horse move as easily towards the end of a Group 1 race. With this prep race under his belt I'd be scared of opposing New Approach in the Irish Champion Stakes next time.

You might argue that New Approach should have done better. But he was cutting back to ten furlongs from his Derby win eleven weeks earlier. This was a huge ask according to a pet theory of mine that I call 'conditioning for distance' which I use to explain the massive change in the results of the top middle distance races from 1990 onwards. The theory is based on the idea that horses need to be trained through racing to run a particular distance. From that key year of 1990 there have been fourteen British and Irish Derby winners that were cut back to less than twelve furlongs as three year olds. All thirteen lost the first time they were asked to go back to the shorter distance. Several won the next time they tried the shorter trip, as I expect New Approach to do. But they needed that first run back at ten furlongs to get used to running the lesser distance.

I wouldn't give up on the idea of PIPEDREAMER (35) becoming only the second Cambridgeshire winner in the last half century to win a Group 1. He shows knee action and will surely improve on his fourth place finish here on a softer surface. If he were mine the race I'd shoot for would be the Premio Roma which is often a weak Group 1 and invariably run on soft ground. The alternative would be the Champion Stakes back at Newmarket which does come up weak quite often too.

It's now the right time of year for fifth placed HALICARNASSUS (31) according to his trainer. And he duly ran a decent race to come through from last place. He's a small field specialist and has run nothing but big races in single figure fields from July onwards. I've long had my eye on him to pull off an upset in some big Autumn race that cuts up to a small field.

RAVEN'S PASS STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR BREEDERS' CUP MILE

RAVEN'S PASS (42) was awfully impressive when winning the Celebration Mile from the high class BANKABLE (41) at Goodwood. He was always moving strongly in the lead and smoothly opened up a three length gap without much urging, once again showing that economical, daisy cutting stride. Bankable stayed on and Raven's Pass was eased close home, which cut his margin to a length. But he was never in any danger and could have hit a speed rating of 43 at least if pushed out. That makes him one of the best horses on the planet. So it's amazing he has yet to win a Group 1.

The ground was only just fast enough for Raven's Pass at Goodwood. On a faster surface he'll be very hard to beat in the QEII. But the race where he really looks set to shine continues to be the Breeders' Cup Mile where his tractability, acceleration, ability to handle tight turns and sheer brilliance will make him the logical favourite.

Bankable ran a big race to close the gap on such a smart winner while pulling nine lengths clear of the rest. He's a big strong sort who just doesn't look a natural miler. He's already proven that he stays ten furlongs and will surely be winning very good races over that distance. I hope he stays in training next year as I can see him developing into a good Group 1 horse over middle distances.

DOES LADY DEAUVILLE REALLY NEED MUD?

LADY DEAUVILLE (38) clocked a fast time when winning the Listed Upavon Fillies Stakes at Salisbury. Most people attribute her big run entirely to the soft ground. But I suspect the longer distance of ten furlongs also helped her. She's built and bred for middle distances (her dam won the Prix du Cadran over two and a half miles).

The first time she went further than a mile Lady Deauville got beat just three parts of a length in a red hot renewal of the Group 3 Prix de Psyche. Now she's produced this big run where she was cruising a quarter of a mile out while her rivals were all under pressure.

Lady Deauville showed that she can produce similar form over a mile when cutting back to that trip to take another Listed race a few days later. But I'll still prefer her over longer in future.

CAPE AMBER (37) is the other horse to take out of the Salisbury race. She set the scorching pace that produced the fast time. She's a good looking filly that her trainer has said all along would appreciate cut in the ground. He was proved right here.

It's clear that Capa Amber doesn't stay a mile and a half. But over shorter trips she's run nothing but big races - bolting up in her maiden, running second to Lush Lashes in the Musidora and now this smart run where she would probably have finished second rather than third but for going off so fast.

NEZAMI CAN WIN A BIG HANDICAP

In my experience you have to resist the temptation to read too much into the form of a lightly raced horse when it shows marked improvement. So although I'd like to try and explain the form of NEZAMI (37) by saying he's best on flat or downhill straight courses I'm not. The fact is he simply showed massive improvement on anything he's done before when winning a seven furlong handicap at Leicester in fast time.

My impression is that the thing which really helped Nezami here was the scorching early pace set by Vhujon. This allowed him to settle in last place whereas in three of his other most recent six starts he was reported to have pulled hard.

With a furlong and a half to go, Nezami's joickey asked him to pick up and he made a huge move to quickly surge to the front then hold off the useful ZAKHAAREF (36).

Nezami is a fairly tall, good-bodied, muscular rather classy looking sort that I'm sure can stay a mile, maybe even the Cambridgeshire trip of nine furlongs.

The way that Nezami seemed so suited by the searching early pace tells me that he'll be ideally suited to valuable handicaps where they invariably go off quickly. He's a pattern class performer on this run and may well be able to improve a bit more. I say this because my research shows that horses learn to settle better as they gain experience and it may well be that Nezami will start doing this now even in more slowly run races.

Zakhaaref made a big effort to hold off the winner but wasn't quite able to go with him in the closing stages. He's clearly useful and consistent over seven furlongs on a galloping track. And he's lightly raced too so obviously has scope for improvement.

BEAUTIFUL BREEZE LOOKS GROUP CLASS

BEAUTIFUL BREEZE (34) won a hot juvenile maiden over the extended seven furlongs at Beverley in a style that suggests he's Group class.

Always prominent, Beautiful Breeze kicked on at halfway and began a long sprint for home which saw him come home more than two seconds quicker for the last three furlongs that older horses did over the same trip in the claimer.

Beautiful Breeze kept on running really strongly all the way to the line, standing off a succession of challenges. My impression was that if the early gallop had been stronger he'd have won more decisively. As it is, the sectional timing formula I use to adjust the ratings for juvenile races where the early gallop was slow indicates this was a pattern class performance.

Beautiful Breeze is a strong, ,muscular mature sort who clearly stays well. Over a mile, preferably on a stiff track or with cut in the ground, I can see him winning a Listed or Group 3 contest this term. Next year he looks a prospect for good middle distance races.

Runner up COSMIC SUN (34) keeps on bumping into smart horses in maidens. He did so again here in a race where he came with a storming late run that would have carried him to victory in 90% of maiden races. He looks even more of a staying type than the winner and will be interesting over even longer than this.

Third placed THE KYLLACHY KID (33) ran around a bit in the closing stages and did well to run so close. He looks sure to win a maiden soon.

BREEDERS' CUP MARATHON RIGHT TARGET FOR SIXTIES ICON

I've noted before that SIXTIES ICON (36) is a near unstoppable force in a slow run race. He showed this once more in the Geoffrey Freer Stakes even though the early gallop was on the borderline of how fast he can go without having nothing left for the finish. (The field traveled at the rate of 13.3 seconds per furlong for the first mile then picked it up to cover the last five furlongs at the rate of 12.4 seconds per furlong.)

Jockey Johnny Murtagh shrewdly kept Sixties Icon a good deal further back in the early stages than normal, ensuring he didn't have to go anything like as fast as the pacesetters. But it was still a struggle for the horse to pick up and narrowly beat the smart stayers TEMPELSTERN (36) and DONEGAL (35).

Sixites Icon lost his racecourse debut in a relatively slow run race. Since then he has run in seven races where the final time was pattern class and lost every time. He's run in eight slower run races and won seven, with his sole loss being a second place finish to Getaway - a horse that may yet show himself to be one of the best if not the best in Europe.

Trainer Jeremy Noseda says that the big target for Sixties Icon this term has always been the new Breeders' Cup Marathon due to be run on Santa Anita's new 'Pro-Ride' synthetic surface which has similar physical properties to Polytrack. This sounds like a good idea to me as an American race at a mile and a half like this one is near certain to be slow run. The obvious concern is whether Sixties Icon will handle the surface. But since most turf horses handle Polytrack I don't think that's likely to stop him. His chances will basically depend on what other European runners and jockeys there are in the race and whether there will be enough of them to change the normal pace scenario of 'marathon' races in America. By the way in America 'marathon' means any race over ten furlongs or more, which seems laughable to anyone outside the country and is a damning inditement of the lack of stamina of US bred horses.

SERIOUS ATTITUDE SHOULD IMPROVE OVER LONGER

You don't often see a horse sired by Mtoto win over six furlongs. Indeed his offspring had scored just three times at distances short of seven furlongs in the previous dozen years before SERIOUS ATTITUDE (34) won a juvenile maiden at Windsor last week. And she didn't just win. She bolted up by five lengths.

Understandably, given her stamina-laden sire, Serious Attitude was doing her best work at the finish of a strongly run race. She picked up strongly to clear away from before a furlong out, coming home 0.7 of second quicker over the last three furlongs than the quickest finisher in the other two six furlong races on the card.

Serious Attitude is a muscular, mature, useful looking sort that appears built for about a mile. This I guess is because her dam's side is pretty speedy, with all but one of her closest relatives on that side of the family being sprinters or milers. She's still a bit leggy but is clearly pattern class and looks bound to improve when she gets the chance to go seven furlongs or a mile.

MULLEIN CAN EARN BLACK TYPE

Normally I'm very reluctant to report on fast times run by British sprinters because there are so many of them. But the Listed class time clocked by MULLEIN (37) at Windsor is worth noting as she's a lightly raced three year old filly that won comfortably and may well stay longer.

Mullein was behind early on and had to be given three cracks of the whip to catch up to the leaders with a couple of furlongs to run. But after just one more crack to encourage her to go and win her race she only had to be ridden out hands and hells inside the last furlong to win rather comfortably.

Mullein is a half sister to the smart ten furlong performer Illustrious Blue. I doubt that she'll stay that far. But the further they went here the stronger she got. So I think she'll appreciate a step up to seven furlongs and might just get a mile. Going up to a longer trip will open up more options for her too and ensure weaker competition. There are a huge number of very fast horses in British five and six furlong contests, even in class 3 handicaps. Over seven furlongs and a mile their numbers plummet.

Trainer Ralph Beckett says that cut in the ground is ultra-important to Mullein. I suspect this is because she has joint problems like so many horses as she doesn't really show any knee action. In addition she won the only time she raced on Polytrack, a surface that produces less concussion even though it rides pretty fast. In any event, on Polytrack or genuinely yielding or softer turf she must have a shot of earning black type before the season is over.

EXCEPTIONAL ART IS USEFUL

I confess that right now I have difficulty analyzing the physique of Australian horses and the horses sired by top Australian sprinters Choisir and Exceed And Excel. Many of them look really big, rangy and scopey but turn out to be sprinters.

The truth is Australian horses look radically different to 'normal' horses bred in Britain, France and Ireland because their pedigrees have diverged massively over the years to the point where they're basically a separate sub-species. It's a similar story with German horses who are so stamina laden they all look like national hunt store horses. Hopefully I'll eventually get used to the new kinds of horses I'm looking at so that I can perceive their physical differences and understand what they mean.

Right now all I can say about Exceptional Art, a son of Exceed And Excel, is that he's a big, strong, muscular sort who looked impressive as he bounded away from his rivals in the closing stages to win a six furlong maiden at Windsor in borderline Listed class time.

Exceptional Art ran a bit green in front and won with a fair bit in hand, so it looks likely that he can run a fair bit faster. This makes him look a fair prospect for the string of upcoming Group races he's entered in. It may turn out that the case of ringworm that set back his seasonal debut turns out to be a blessing in disguise as he'll be able to tackle his big targets as a fresher horse than many of his rivals.

PEACE OFFERING TOUGH TO BEAT IN SMALL FIELDS

PEACE OFFERING (40) showed once more just how hard he is to beat in a small field when clocking a Group 2 class time to take a five furlong Conditions sprint at Nottingham.

Peace Offering made most of the running. He doesn't actually need to lead, but he does have to race prominently to produce his best form. And if the early pace is really strong he doesn't get home.

The problem for Peace Offering is that he's running in the country that has about 90% of the best sprinters in Europe. All British Group and Listed races, and all the big handicaps he's eligible for invariably feature a furious early gallop. His best chance of success therefore lies in British Conditions races like this and in Group 3 and lower Grade contests abroad where he's better than his opponents and the early pace tends bot to be that strong. He's won six of the last seven times he's gone five furlongs in these circumstances and run second in his only recent loss.

Last time out Peace Offering showed how smart he could be when he was allowed to set a crawl of a pace till almost halfway in a similar Conditions race at Newmarket. He came home over the last three furlongs massively faster than any other race on the card to win impressively. When he's made to go fast however he doesn't get home.

ZAFFAAN NEEDS CUT IN THE GROUND

CELTIC SPUR (35) won a hot little Novice Stakes over Great Leighs in good style and is clearly pattern class. You can't see this from the bare time because they went slow in the early stages, as is so often the case in two year old races. But he came home half a second quicker over the last three furlongs than older handicappers managed over a furlong shorter trip in the previous race which takes some doing. I've adjusted the rating for the race to take account of this.

There's little doubt that Celtic Spur could have won by as much as two lengths rather than one if he hadn't put his head up, drifted towards the rail and idled when he hit the front. This suggests that he's going to prove competitive around Group 3 level.

Celtic Spur is rather narrow and immature but is clearly built and bred for longer than six furlongs. I'm certain he'll stay a mile and strongly suspect he'll get ten furlongs next year from the way he's put together. I imagine he was cut back to this trip following his promising run over seven furlongs to see if it was worth taking up his entry in the valuable Tattersalls Auction race in October, a six furlong contest. The way I see it, he's likely to be outpaced at some point in that contest and should be going back up to seven furlongs or a mile instead.

ZAFFAAN (34) had been seriously impressive when winning at Ascot two runs back. At the time I suggested he might not need the cut in the ground he had that day. But I failed to see something that was much more obvious in the small field this time around. Namely that he shows knee action, a sure sign of a soft ground performer.

Here, thanks to the fact he was racing on Polytrack, a surface that reduces the concussion a horse experiences to it's legs, Zaffaan was able to show a similar level of form to what he'd displayed at Ascot. But Polytrack is still a quick surface and he was clearly done for speed by the winner after setting just a fair pace then quickening it up.

It looked to me at Ascot that Zaffaan had the scope for serious improvement. The same is true for this run. On yielding or softer turf I suspect Zaffaan will prove to be better than Celtic Spur. So I'd like to see him take up his entries in the Mill Reef and Middle Park Stakes. With cut in the ground I'd rate him a serious threat in either of those races.

Zaffaan is more close-coupled and muscular than the winner and does look more of a six furlong horse to me now that I've had the chance to get a better look at him. He was closing on the winner in the closing stages but that was more because Celtic Spur was easing himself up really. It could be Zaffaan will get seven furlongs and a mile but that's not the way I'd bet right now. I see him as having a great shot of winning a big two year old race over six furlongs when he gets his ground.

ORDNANCE ROW BEST ON STIFF TRACKS

ORDNANCE ROW (38) gradually ground away at the soft lead LAA RAYB (37) had been allowed in Salisbury's Group 3 Sovereign Stakes to win by three parts of a length. He's earned the same speed rating from me several times before and is clearly a very solid Group 3 horse.

Stiff tracks seem to suit Ordnance Row very well. So far he's run four times in races where the course rises 15 feet or more during the contest. His only loss in those four starts came when he was backward on his seasonal debut.

It could be that on soft ground, particularly over longer than a mile Ordnance Row will prove equally effective on easier tracks. We may get the chance to test this idea very soon as he's entered up for the nine furlong Strensall Stakes at York where he may well get some cut in the ground.

Personally I'll be inclined to side against Ordnance Row at York. I'd prefer to bet him on courses which are steep enough to offset his lack of acceleration. Those that rise 15 feet or more over a mile or ten furlongs are Ascot (one mile only), Pontefract, Salisbury and Sandown (one mile only).

Runner up Laa Rayb is a rather quirky horse that has hung, carried his head high and even dumped his rider at the start in recent races. He did nothing wrong here, and I'm betting that's because he was allowed an uncontested lead in a relatively small field.

I suspect that, like a lot of horses, Laa Rayb's odd behavior in races stems from the fact that he doesn't like too much company. His wins have all been in fields of nine or less or in races where he's had one of the two outermost draws. He had his favoured circumstances here and ran his race. Next time he hits them I'd bet on him doing so again.

KERRY'S REQUIEM (31) is a big, strong, rangy filly that's built and bred for seven furlongs plus. But she'd pulled too hard to get home the only two times she ran beyond seven furlongs. So, following her good run in the Cerry Hinton, it looked like a good idea to cut her back to five furlongs for a Listed race on yielding ground at Newbury.

In the early stages Kerry's Requiem had trouble lying up. In fact after about a furlong her jockey clearly got worried as she labored in last place as he drew his stick. He didn't have to use it as Kerry's Requiem lost no more ground. And approaching the last furlong she started to pick up strongly while moving really well. Unfortunately the horses in front of her edged closer together, closing the gap her jockey was aiming to take. He switched her pretty dramatically to the rail to take another gap, but that closed on her too. Eventually, far too late to do any good, Kerry's Requiem found herself in the clear and closed strongly on the winner MADAME TROP VITE (35) who had already flown.

Kerry's Requiem never had a chance to pull hard here as the pace was so strong. But horses eventually stop doing that as they gain experience, and clearly she's just got to step up to longer distances to show her best form. She's already earned a rating of 36 from me for beating the useful White Shift over five furlongs at Windsor. That kind of rating wins Group races and I think that's what Kerry's Requiem can do over longer distances.

It could just be that right now six furlongs will be okay for Kerry's Requiem. And it makes sense to step her up gradually in distance. So her entries in the Lowther and Cheveley Park Stakes over six furlongs make perfect sense. But my feeling is that she's going to prove best over seven furlongs or more even at two.

Madam Trop Vite is clearly useful over the minimum distance as she's won two times out of three over the trip and finished a close second to the useful Doughnut in her sole loss. But there are far fewer opportunities for fillies over the minimum trip so I'd be pretty confident Kerrys Requiem will end up being more successful.

TROPICAL STRAIT CAN WIN A BIG HANDICAP

It was obvious two furlongs out that TROPICAL STRAIT (37) was going to win a 1m 5f handicap at Newbury. He'd just cruised into the lead and his jockey was sitting stock still while all his rivals were under pressure. Approaching the final furlong he was asked to go and win his race and stretched clear in good style to score by three lengths full of running.

Tropical Strait is a very lightly raced five year old that has run nothing but big races over twelve furlongs or more. This was the second time he's earned a pattern class speed rating from me and he's clearly capable of winning a valuable handicap. But whether or not that will be the Ebor is hard to say. His connections seem to think that race will come too soon.

It's hard to spot any patterns in the form of such a lightly raced horse. All I can say is that Tropical Strait stays well, acts on any ground and is a big , strong sort that would make a good hurdler.

EARLSMEDIC STILL INSANELY WELL HANDICAPPED

Even if EARLSMEDIC (39) goes up ten pounds for his latest runaway win at Newmarket he's going to be insanely well handicapped according to my speed ratings. He ran as fast as horses with official ratings of 110 or more but looks set to be rated just 80 or lower following this win.

Earlsmedic was always prominent in a race where he kicked on and picked up the pace noticeably from halfway. He simply powered clear in the final furlong despite racing with his head rather too high for my liking.

I imagine Earlsmedic will be tried with a sheepskin noseband in future in an attempt to correct his high head carriage. But although he's still clearly a bit undisciplined he has masses of speed. I wouldn't like to oppose him over six furlongs in a sprint handicap in the near future and suspect he could cut back to five without a problem too.

WITH INTEREST GETS INTERESTING

DRUMFIRE (37) clocked a solid Listed class time to take a hot little Conditions race at Newmarket and is clearly better over the ten furlongs of this race than the shorter trips he's been running over. Indeed he might just stay a bit further as he was under pressure from before the three furlong pole and took quite a while to pick up.

However it is the horses that finished behind Drumfire that look the most interesting.

Foremost amongst these is WITH INTEREST (34) who'd run faster than the winner ran here when taking a valuable handicap at Nad Al Sheba back in February. This was the first run in six months for this classy looking sort. And from his daisy-cutting stride pattern I'd say the ground was a little on the slow side for him. Nonetheless he moved strongly for a long way and was only ridden along hands and heels in the final furlong when it became clear he wasn't going to pick up the winner.

I strongly suspect that With Interest will improve markedly for this run and see him as an interesting prospect for Group races.

KHATEEB (35) moved smoothly and looked the likely winner with two furlongs to run. But I've always been a but dubious about whether he truly gets ten furlongs. He didn't appear to run out of gas here but found nothing like as much as had seemed likely in the closing stages. I'd like to see him go back to a mile or ideally nine furlongs.

BLUE MONDAY (36) ran a decent race off a long break to take second. But he's now seven years of age and I'm always dubious about horses that return to Britain after running abroad for a long time. If he was as good as ever why isn't he still Down Under running for the bigger prizes available to him there.

Further back in the field I should make note of WILD DESERT (27) who is a great big strapping national hunt sort that will surely be jumping fences once day. He's a half brother to the decent hurdler Anemix and will surely be running over hurdles this Winter. He's got a much better physique for jumping than the vast majority of juvenile hurdlers and will surely do well in that sphere. After all he's already won on the flat and did well to take this useful field along at a good clip for a long way.

ASHRAM LOOKS A SMART TWO YEAR OLD

You don't often see a two year old race run so fast in the early stages that the pace hurts the final time. But that's what happened in the seven furlong Newmarket maiden won by ASHRAM (33).

The runner up Equipe De Nuit (31) set a scorching early pace and looked set to win a furlong out as he was still clear. But he began to tire pretty badly as did everything that had been chasing him. And out of the clouds came a great big flashy chestnut that was eating up the ground despite flashing his tail and drifting badly to his left. This was Ashram who picked up the winner in a fashion reminiscent of Fiery Lad's amazing finishing burst at Navan a couple of months back.

Ashram simply flew by Equipe De Nuit to win full of running.

I've adjusted the rating to take account of the early pace, and my calculations make this a borderline Listed class performance by Ashram. He can surely run a good deal faster as he had so much in hand at the finish. So his entry in the Dewhurst looks by no means optimistic.

I suspect that Ashram will be too green to win the Dewhurst. In addition he's so big, and rangy that the seven furlongs may prove too short for him in a more normally run race. In any event he looks an exciting prospect.

ALMIQDAAD LOOKS A MIDDLE DISTANCE PROSPECT

ALMIQDAAD (34) picked up smartly off a moderate early pace to win a mile maiden at Newmarket. He was just one of several in with a chance two furlongs out but found a serious change of gear to spurt away from his rivals despite drifting to his left. He's a rangy sort that is clearly a middle distance prospect for next year. In fact his trainer talked about running him over ten furlongs this season after the race.

My feeling from watching him win is that Almiqdaad is going to prove Listed or Group 3 rather than Group class. That's certainly what sectional times suggest. But it's always hard to tell with lightly raced horses like him. He might just be a bit better than that.

Runner up CITYSCAPE (33) is a big strong sort that ran most promisingly. He had to be switched in the closing stages but still picked up really strongly.

RAINBOW VIEW DOES IT AGAIN

I suggested after her impressive debut win that RAINBOW VIEW (37) might be more of a filly for next season rather than this as she's a rangy, scopey sort that looks built for a mile and a quarter. However she proved me wrong by demolishing her rivals in the Group 3 Sweet Solver Stakes by six lengths.

The yielding ground and strong pace certainly helped make the Sweet Solera Stakes enough of a stamina test for Rainbow View. But the race is run over just seven furlongs so, as her trainer pointed out, she's now proven that she possesses speed as well as stamina. She ran a time that's Group 1 class for a juvenile filly and is now clearly a contender for the Fillies Mile and Marcel Boussac.

If she were mine the race I'd be targeting with Rainbow View is the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. She's Breeders' Cup nominated so her owner wouldn't have to pay a supplementary fee to get her into the race. The race is to be run at Santa Anita where the new Prio-Ride surface will almost certainly favour turf performers. And the distance of eight and a half furlongs would certainly be a plus for Rainbow View. Her trainer, John Gosden, used to be a top trainer in America and certainly knows what it takes to win a race like that.

ON OUR WAY A USEFUL STAYING JUVENILE

I confess that I have a soft spot for great big strapping sorts like ON OUR WAY (33) who won a mile juvenile maiden at Sandown in good style. I guess it's because I like jump racing and am always looking for horses that will be suited to the Winter game. Certainly it's easy to see this tall, long striding inmate of the Henry Cecil stable jumping a fence later on in his career. Meanwhile he looks a fair prospect for races like the Royal Lodge Stakes.

The race that On Our Way won featured a farcially slow early pace. The field were barely cantering for five of the eight furlongs. But they really picked it up over the last three furlongs, covering them slightly more than a second quicker than Isphahan did in the handicap over the same trip. The sectional timing formula I use to adjust the ratings of slow run juvenile races indicates this was a Listed class performance.

The cut in the ground and the steep uphill finish certainly helped On Our Way. He's clearly a horse that does nothing quickly. But he did stretch clear in good fashion in the closing stages.

It may be that on faster ground and on easier tracks On Our Way won't have the pace to get competitive in pattern company this year. But next season when he'll have the chance to run over longer distances he should really come into his own.

IT'S CRACKERS TO OPPOSE QRACKERS

Champion Jumps trainer Paul Nicholls has clearly elected to bring out a few of his better horses for a crack a the valuable prizes now available in the off season. One of them is QRACKERS (38) who clocked a seriously fast time when winning a novice chase at Newton Abbot.

I can only speculate about why Qrackers ran such a clunker at Chepstow in April. But he's won his other five most recent starts and showed himself to be pattern class here.

Ellereslie Tom (32) set a searching pace that had many of his rivals really stretching at the jumps. But Qrackers was always moving strongly in a close second place and jumped like an old hand. In fact he really pinged the fences in a fashion you rarely see from a novice. The only two slight jumping errors he made came when he was asked by his jockey to go and beat the pacemaker. When he first got alongside him he over jumped a fence and landed a little steeply. He was also slightly messy at the next. But once he got clear he was back to pionging the fences as before as he steadily drew clear.

Qrackers clearly idles in front just as his trainer has said. He certainly eased himself up in the closing stages here. No doubt he'll do better in higher class races when he has company for longer.

Qrackers is actually a pretty tall, rangy sort with a long stride. He looks much more of a two and a half mile sort to me than a two miler. In fact I suspect he may last three miles from the way he's built and the way he ran here. Nicholls says the horse also needs a fast surface. I'd question this on form, but in my experience if there's one thing a trainer knows it's the going preference of their horses.

There is a valuable handicap chase to be run at Newton Abbot's Summer Jumps Festival at the end of August which is Qrackers next big target. If, as seems likely, he gets his ground I'd be wary of opposing Qrackers there.

HENRYTHENAVIGATOR AND RAVEN'S PASS LOOKING GOOD FOR BREEDERS' CUP

Did we see two future Breeders' Cup winners fight out the finish of the Sussex Stakes? I rather think it's possible. I'm convinced that the winner and runner up are horses that are bumping into the outer limits of how fast racehorses can be.

I concede that the final time HENRYTHENVIGATOR (30) clocked when just getting home from RAVEN'S PASS (30) in the big Goodwood race was slow. But the last half mile was truly remarkable. I timed them covering the last four furlongs in a blistering 44.6 seconds. That's two and a half seconds quicker than Orizaba managed at the end of the Group 2 Vintage Stakes and 1.8 seconds quicker than the useful Firestreak managed in a class 2 Classified Stakes.

The reason that they were able to come home so fast in the Sussex Stakes was that the early pace was a crawl. This should have given a serious advantage to the two useful sprinters MAJOR CADEAUX (27) and WINKER WATSON (27). But though both of them moved really well soon after the sprint for home began they eventually found themselves outrun by two horses that are clearly very smart indeed.

Henrythenavigator has long struck me as a horse that should stay a mile and a quarter. The way he kept going off a much stronger pace last time on a stiffer track certainly suggests as much. So the Breeders' Cup Classic looks a very logical target.

The unfortunate thing about this year's Breeders' Cup Classic is that the top dirt horse Curlin may well skip it due to the fact it's being run on an artificial surface which favours turf horses like Henrythenavigator. With the other US dirt horses looking a mediocre bunch at best this year Henrythenavigator should have a pretty simple task at Santa Anita as long as he stays. I can see US pundits knocking him for winning a soft race on a surface that disadvantaged his main competitors.

Raven's Pass won't have it so easy in the Breeders' Cup Mile. But watching his smooth, machine-like, stride as he gained strongly on his old rival in the sprint finished convinced me he can produce the kind of finishing kick required to win the big US race.

Major Cadeuax looked a real threat two furlongs out. He was moving really well at that stage. But even off a really slow pace he didn't quite see out the mile. He really needs to go back to his specialist trip of seven furlongs - a distance where he's very smart indeed.

Winker Watson has the build and stride pattern of a six furlong sprinter. He looked dangerous for a few strides when he moved up on the outside but clearly failed to get home. He obviously doesn't stay a mile and I'm not fully convinced he'll get seven furlongs either. I'd like to see him back over six.

RIVER PROUD IS SERIOUSLY GOOD

RIVE PROUD (40) was most impressive when taking a Listed race over a mile at Goodwood in seriously fast time. He was gifted a fairly soft lead but didn't really got that slow. His fast time stemmed from the fact that he was able to pick up so strongly in the last half mile which he covered only about 1.3 seconds slower than Henrythenavigator did off a much slower pace in the Sussex Stakes when you allow for the difference in going.

Seeing how strongly River Proud was moving at the finish here I've now got to revise my views and say he stays a mile really well. In fact I'm inclined to believe trainer Paul Cole who thinks he'll stay middle distances. He plans to run him on the Group 2 Prix Guillaume d'Ornano over ten furlongs next time, and I'd be wary of opposing him there. He's just a hop, skip and a jump off proper Group 1 class on this run and will almost certainly rank as the quickest runner in the French race.

DONEGAL A SMART STAYER IN THE MAKING

This year's Gordon Stakes was an interesting contest from a timing point of view because it turned out that the early pace was just slow enough to hurt the final time. But they didn't go that slow early. And my experience of sectional timing tells me that a proper Group 1 horse can regain a lot of lost time in the closing stages of a race. So the fact that the winner CONDUIT (33) failed to do so tells me he is not a Group 1 horse.

Conduit was basically a proper middle-distance horse with a turn of foot facing a bunch of one-paced stayers here, so he really should have won in better style than he did. I'm pretty sure he's no better than Group 3 class.

The runner up DONEGAL (33) is a different matter. He clearly wants two miles and did really well to get within a head of winning a twelve furlong Group 3 run the way this one was.

Just after leaving the stall's Donegal's rider rode him along in an attempt to gain the early lead. But despite the pace not being very fast the horse was unable to oblige him. Clearly Donegal is totally devoid of early speed. Nonetheless he still raced prominently and was moving strongly when the pace picked up noticeably early in the straight. Conduit always looked like swamping him for speed when he ranged alongside but Donegal kept on in most determined fashion.

I rather doubt that we'll be seeing Donegal running over a trip as short as a mile and a half again anytime soon. His next outing will be in the Prix Kergoraly at Deauville over 1m 7f. I rather fancy his chances there and see him as a smart stayer in the making.

SAVARAIN HAS A SHOT IN ST LEGER

SAVARAIN (37) only finished second in a red hot three year old handicap at Goodwood. But my gut feel from watching the race is that he will turn out to be a better horse than the winner LOVE GALORE (38). I say this because Savarain stuck close to a scorching early pace but was still moving strongly all the way up the straight. It seemed to me that it was simply lack of acceleration rather than ability that caused him to give best to Love Galore in the closing stages. Over a longer trip I think this good-bodied, classy looking colt that shows an enthusiastic, bounding stride will improve. I can see him having a real shot in the St Leger.

Love Galore is clearly a Group class horse too. He stayed on really strongly to run down his smart rival as the pair quite rapidly surged away from the rest in their duel to the line.

Love Galore is a tall, deep chested, long striding colt who looked in need of a step up to a mile and a half when finishing really well off a strong pace to be fourth to Jedediah in a valuable ten furlong handicap at Newmarket. He confirmed this impression when outpaced at the finish of a slow run race over the same trip next time. Sure enough he went and won over the longer trip in a very strongly run race here.

My ratings say that Love Galore only ran a Group 3 class time here. But there's only one St Leger, so surely his connections must now give serious thought to supplementing him for the final Classic. He could well at least place in the race. Certainly he stays well and must win a pattern race sooner rather than later.

BLUE SKY BASIN IS GROUP CLASS

Nobody really wants a seven furlongs specialist. But they don't come much better than BLUE SKY BASIN (38) who ran away with a valuable three year old handicap over the trip at Goodwood.

True his rivals allowed him a fairly soft lead. But the fact that Blue Sky Basin was able to sprint the last half mile in just a second slower than Henrythenavigator managed off a much slower pace in the Sussex Stakes says a lot for his ability.

Blue Sky Basin is a muscular, mature, classy looking sort that does really look built for precisely seven furlongs. He's got that funny sprinters stride which means he pushes with his back legs an uses his front legs simply for landing. Still he's clearly very speedy. In fact he's won all four times he's gone seven furlongs on an easy course on fast ground with a recent run.

There's obviously at least one more valuable seven furlong handicap in Blue Sky Basin, seeing that his official mark is still relatively lenient. But long term there's no doubt he'll be running in pattern company. In fact right now I'd see him as a good thing to take a Listed race over seven furlongs on fast ground on an easy course.

GALLAGHER LOOKS GOOD FOR THE PRIX MORNY

Gallagher was awfully impressive when winning a six furlong juvenile maiden at Chepstow on his only previous start. By halfway in that race everything else was being ridden along while he was cruising. From there he picked up very strongly, taking just 34.6 seconds to cover the last three furlongs. That's way quicker than any other winner on the card and 1.2 second faster than the winner of the other six furlong race (a handicap for older horses).

Gallagher simply ran away from his rivals through the final furlong or so at Chepstow, and he again finished really strongly here.

All the other three offspring of Gallagher's dam stayed at least seven furlongs. Seeing the way he's finished both times suggests strongly that Gallagher will have no problem stepping up to that trip. But he's clearly very effective over six furlongs and looks to have a real shot of taking the Prix Morny next time.

Reve De Soleil is a tall, scopey, rangy, long striding sort that looks to be crying out for a step back up to seven furlongs. He finished strongly to win over a very stiff six furlongs at Hamilton and Pontefract then met traffic problems but nonetheless ran well when trying seven in a French pattern race.

LUSH LASHES DESPERATELY UNLUCKY IN NASSAU

I hate slow run races because they result in bunched, sprint finishes where luck in running counts for far too much. This was certainly the case in this year's Nassau Stakes where the field crawled around the track until starting a wild sprint to the line from about a quarter of a mile out. In the crowded stamped LUSH LASHES (26) could be seen desperately trying for a run only to be denied every time as her jockey switched her this way and that. She finally got clear close home and finished with a tremendous rush but was a head short of the very lucky winner at the line.

This run did at least show that Lush Lashes is very smart at ten furlongs or less on fast ground. I'd give her a shot against pretty much any filly in these conditions and would seriously consider her against males even in a Group 1.

KING'S APOSTLE MAY WELL BE A GROUP 1 SPRINTER

KING'S APOSTLE (39) didn't clock a Group 1 time when losing the Stewards' Cup in a photo. But the way he picked up ground so quickly in the closing stages despite not getting a clear run on unsuitably slow ground while hanging tells me that he may well be Group 1 class at six furlongs.

Kings Apostle is a big, muscular, very classy looking horse that needed the run on his racecourse debut, was almost certainly not fully fit first time out this year and missed work and was unfit when losing another contest. He would have won all the other six times he's gone six furlongs but for being desperately unlucky here and in the Wokingham.

In that race King's Apostle was trapped behind a wall of horses on the far side and had to be switched violently a furlong out, at which point he looked to be impossibly far behind. But he again picked up with a tremendous surge to lose by just half a length. That was quite some performance, as was this one.

Sprinters are rarely as consistent as King's Apostle has been in big handicaps unless they're Group class. I think King's Apostle certainly is and have my eye on him as a Group 1 prospect.