AZMEEL A SERIOUS DERBY CANDIDATE

I've spotted a very interesting trend in the Washington Singer Stakes at Newbury. Whenever a once raced horse which earned a Racing Post rating of 80 or more on their sole start runs in the race it's time to get your money down - as you can see from their record before this year;

2008 Cry Of Freedom WON 15/8

2007 Sharp Nephew WON 7-2

2005 Emirates Skyline fourth

2003 Haafhd WON 9-4

2001 Mamool second (by a head after running green)

2000 Prizeman WON 8-13

1999 Mana-Mou-Bay WON 10-11

1997 Bahr WON 2-1

This year these stats pointed to AZMEEL (37) and he duly romped home in a time that marks him out as a Group 1 prospect for next year.

Azmeel is a handsome, long striding horse with a big stride who won his sole previous start impressively under a considerate ride at Sandown. He swept through late down the outside to win going away with his jockey simply nudging him along and waving the whip at him briefly. He clocked the fastest time on the card, and I rated it a Group class performance.

Over the last fourteen years Azmeel's trainer, John Gosden, has had only four juveniles that won before August on their debuts over seven furlongs plus by more than a length while earning good speed ratings (95 plus from Raceform on their current scale). The four in question were Ryafan, Crystal Music, Raven's Pass and Rainbow View. All four went on to win Group 1 races.

Azmeel has certainly run like a Group 1 performer on both his starts to date. He might just lack the pace to win over seven furlongs or a mile at the top level this year, and I can't see him being fully effective over a mile at three. This is not surprising given his pedigree. His sire and dam both produced their best efforts at a mile and a half, which is no doubt why, together with his physique, he was entered for the Derby and not the Guineas.

Right now, of all the horses in the betting for next year's Derby, Azmeel at 33-1 is the only one that appeals to me. He's already demonstrated the combination of speed, stamina and acceleration needed for the big race. I imagine Gosden will go the Benny The Dip route with him from now on, tackling the Royal Lodge, the Racing Post Trophy, the Sandown Classic Trial and the Dante before the Derby.

KITE WOOD A DODGY PROPOSITION FOR ST LEGER

People who pay big money for racehorses nowadays don't want to see the slightest trace of real stamina in a sire. Those that win over trips longer than a mile and a half are avoided like the plague.

As a result if a horse is good enough to win the St Leger you can be almost certain that nowadays it will not be asked to run 1m 5f or more before it runs in the final Classic. This explains why since 1989 the 68 Leger runners which previously ran over 1m 5f or more all lost. The very fact that they were tried over such distances meant their connections knew they weren't really up to winning a Classic.

Every year there's at least one strongly fancied horse which attempts to defy this statistic in the St Leger. And this year we've already got one candidate in KITE WOOD (40) who was promoted to favouritism for the final Classic after winning the Group 2 Geoffrey Freer Stakes.

I concede that Kite Wood ran fast enough to win an average St Leger at Newbury. But the fact that it was his second successive win over 1m 5f isn't the only reason to side against him at Doncaster. The likely fast ground is also a big concern.

Frankie Dettori said the reason Kite Wood shifted to the stand rail in the closing stages of the Geoffrey Freer was because the ground was too fast for him. This makes sense. He's a big-bodied, heavy topped sort with a huge stride that hits the ground hard.

The ground at Newbury was actually very slightly on the slow side of good judged by race times. This is confirmed by the fact that the jockeys came up the centre of the course in search of better ground. Only three times in the last twenty running of the Leger at Doncaster has the ground been slower. This, together with the dreadful recent record of proven stayers in the race, makes the 7-2 currently offered by the bookies look distinctly unappealing.

BOUNTY BOX CAN WIN A LISTED RACE

I avoid reporting on fast British sprinters as there are just too many of them. But BOUNTY BOX (38) ran so fast for a horse with an official rating of 86 when winning at Newmarket that I have to say she's probably worth following. She's won the last three times she's run six furlongs and is quick enough to score in Listed company at least.

TIME FOR SEA THE STARS TO CALL IT A CAREER

It is fast becoming obvious that the proliferation of Group 1 contests and the increasing internationalisation of racing are making it all too possible for the best European horses to avoid each other. Nobody seems willing to address the problem, so we end up with races like last week's Juddmonte International where just two serious runners plus a couple of pacemakers showed up.

Japan seems to be the only country where they fully recognise the importance of competitiveness in the top races. They have an average of 17 runners in their Group 1's and would almost certainly abandon a top race that drew as small a field as last week's feature at York. They know it's vital for the sport's finances to stage races that are attractive to punters rather than the 'racing purists' who supposedly got such a bang out of the York showdown between SEA THE STARS (43) and MASTERCRAFTSMAN (42).

In any event, the race was certainly interesting from a time perspective as the pacemakers ensured a strong gallop which helped Sea The Stars lower the track record.

This was quite some performance by Sea The Stars. For a long time Mastercraftsman seemed to be holding him. Then in the last hundred yards he dug deep and found what was needed to get by his rival.

The huge concern with the future in mind is that Sea The Stars had a second really hard race in a row. He looked seriously tired at the end of the Eclipse on his previous run, and trainer John Oxx confirmed the Sandown race had taken a good deal out of his charge. He's since said that Sea The Stars appears to be suffering less ill effects from the York race. But my ratings suggest his performance, brilliant as it was, ranked two fifths of a second per mile behind his Sandown success. It seems to me he is regressing and will regress further unless he's now rested for several months.

It is worth bearing in mind that Sea The Stars has now won four Group 1 races in a row.

The only horses in the last fourteen years to win more than four Group 1's in a row were Duke Of Marmalade, Giant's Causeway and Rock Of Gibraltar. All of them were trained by Aidan O'Brien.

I'm convinced that O'Brien's ability to win more than four Group 1's in a row with the same horse stems from the fact that he leaves a good deal more condition on them for their first start than other trainers. Stats from Hong Kong show that the average horse loses eleven pounds after a race and takes four weeks to gain the weight back. A big win in a ten to twelve furlong Group 1 probably causes a significantly bigger weight loss. And I reckon O'Brien's horses are the only ones that start out with sufficient bulk to withstand the weight loss involved in winning five or more Group 1's in a row without a break.

I find it hard to believe that Oxx would seriously think of bringing out Sea The Stars again, just eighteen days after this tough race, in the Irish Champion Stakes, even if he did get the fast ground he seems to need. I'd bet against him winning with a good deal of confidence if he did. After posting two successive monstrously fast times Sea The Stars looks set to 'bounce to the moon' as an American friend would put it. My research shows that the American bounce theory, which holds that horses often regress due to the effect of a fast recent race, is sound.

If he were mine I would be bundling Sea The Stars off to stud. I believe he'll lose if he is run again this season.

It's hard to know exactly where Mastercraftsman goes from here. He's a proper ten furlong sort that always struggled with shorter distances, so I don't think a cut back to a mile for the QEII is a smart option. He managed to win Group 1's at a mile or less with pacemakers against his own age group but never produced anything like his York level of performance. A trip to America for the Breeders' Cup looks a poor option as well because he lacks the turn of foot needed to win on turf or the Pro-Ride surface used at Santa Anita. With a mile and a half looking doubtful for him and his stablemate Fame And Glory going for the Irish Champion Stakes, the only viable option for Mastercraftsman would seem to be the Champion Stakes at Newmarket.

LADY OF THE DESERT IS PROPER GROUP 1 CLASS

After she'd won the Silver Flash Stakes in very fast time last month I had thought the title of Champion juvenile filly was pretty much sewn up by Cabaret. But we've since seen several performances of equal merit by two year old fillies, two of them this week. One was by the brilliant Special Day in France. The other was by LADY OF THE DESERT (38) who simply ran away with the Lowther Stakes in very fast time.

Lady Of The Desert is a light-framed rather ordinary looking filly. But she sure can run. She was always going very strongly and simply powered away in the closing stages to win full of running.

Smart as she is, I do have a couple of concerns about Lady Of The Desert. The first is that she's not all that big, and smaller juveniles, especially fillies don't tend to train on as well as bigger ones. We've seen this with Rainbow View this season. She was brilliant at two but has yet to win in five starts this term.

The other concern I have about Lady Of The Desert concerns her next target, the Cheveley Park. Her only loss in four starts came when she ran up the track in the Queen Mary Stakes, having been taken along at an early pace she was not comfortable with by the American challenger Jealous Again. In the Cheveley Park she will be facing the blazingly fast front runner Special Day who has already beaten the very smart colts Orpen Shadow and Canford Cliffs by forcing them to go a step faster than they could comfortably cope with early on.

My feeling is that Lady Of The Desert would do better going up to seven furlongs or a mile than keeping to six furlongs. The way she was finishing here off a strong pace convinces me that she'll stay longer without a problem.

DAR RE MI COULD PULL OFF A UNIQUE DOUBLE

No filly has ever won the Yorkshire Oaks and the Prix Vermeille. But both races were restricted to three year olds till recently. Now that older horses are allowed the task has been made somewhat easier, so there's every chance that DAR RE MI (39) can pull off this unique double now that she's gone and won the big race at York.

Dar Re Mi is a big, heavy-topped filly that's pretty easy to understand. Ten furlongs is too short for her unless the going is soft. And she can't make up much ground in a sprint finish so needs to stick pretty close to the pace which is what she did here. She kicked on around three furlongs out but didn't actually lead till one furlong out. However she was always going that bit better than SARISKA (39) and ended up nearly a length ahead..

Dar Re Mi was freakishly not to win the Yorkshire Oaks last year. If the race had been run at York instead of being rained off she'd almost certainly have romped home. But the race was transferred to Newmarket where lightning fast ground and a strong tailwind enabled Lush Lashes to stay the trip and beat her home. Lush Lashes would not have run had the race been run on the soft ground at York. And if the ground had been just a bit slower or the tailwind not as strong I doubt Lush Lashes would have lasted home to beat Dar Re Mi at Newmarket.

Dar Re Mi was also unlucky to come up against the brilliant Zarkava in last year's Vermeille, running second to the subsequent Arc winner when that one broke the race record.

The three year old fillies are a relatively weak group this year, and the likely Vermeille favourite Stacelita is no faster than Sariska and has nothing like her acceleration. So Dar Re Mi looks to have a real shot at Longchamp. Thereafter it would not be an entirely silly idea to take up her entry in the Arc. She might well reach the first four there as she's run a bit faster than she did at York on my speed ratings.

There has been a lot of hype behind Sariska. But the truth is she won uncompetitive races at York and the Curragh and badly hampered all her main rivals when narrowly winning the Oaks. I still say she should have been disqualified there.

Sariska's connections put forward the idea that she was in season as an excuse for her loss. But she ran up to form according to my ratings. And later in the week Alpine Rose won another Group 1 when she was in season so I'm not sure the excuse holds much water. As I see it Sariska is simply over rated.

WILL SHOWCASING STAY SOUND?

Before this year eleven of the previous thirteen Gimcrack winners had no more than three previous starts and earned a Racing Post rating of 88 or more in a maiden race. SHOWCASING (38) was the only runner in this year's Gimcrack who fit that profile and he met it twelve out of fourteen for the stats by winning in fast time.

Showcasing is a heavy-topped sort that has a big stride which shows knee action. Basically he hits the ground hard. His sire, dam and siblings seemed to positively hate soft ground but his stride pattern says he'll prefer it. Indeed my big concern about him is whether he will stand up to racing on the fast ground he's likely to be racing on most of the time.

Seeing that he's a rangy, scopey sort you might think Showcasing is a slam dunk to get more than the six furlongs of the Gimcrack. But all his relatives were sprinters and I've seen too many six furlong sorts built like jumpers to be confident of him getting much further.

That said, this was a big run on the clock. In some years it would be enough to make Showcasing the fastest two year old on my speed ratings. But even at this stage this is looking a very strong year for two year olds. So I wouldn't be at all surprised if Showcasing gets turned over in the Middle Park when he steps up to Group 1 company.

ORPEN GREY (31) was well fancied after running a close second to the smart Arcano in fast time in the July Stakes. But he faded after lobbing along in the lead at a good pace. Perhaps he needed the run following a near six week break. Certainly I wouldn't desert him just because he's run below form this once. He may lack acceleration due to that big stride of his but is an admirable sort otherwise.

RADIOHEAD ANOTHER TOP CLASS TWO YEAR OLD

I liked the way RADIOHEAD (38) picked up so strongly to run third in the Nunthorpe. He will surely stay the six furlongs of the Middle Park and looks a serious contender in what is fast developing into an unusually strong renewal of that race.

Radiohead impressed me tremendously with the way he won his previous two starts.

At Bath Radiohead won in a common canter in a time I rated Group class for a two year old (the sprint course was clearly riding a good deal slower than the round course that day). Then at Royal Ascot he was severely impeded, totally stopped in his tracks but recovered in no time flat to sprint by his rivals and win ridden out with hands and heels only - despite the fact it was a Group 2.

One reason Radiohead was able to recover so readily at Ascot is that he's a great big colt that is very mature indeed. The huge bump that he took would have knocked most youngsters out of the race but he's so big, strong and mature he got over it easily.

ROARING FORTE IS SERIOUSLY GOOD

I loved the way ROARING FORTE (39) won a red hot mile handicap at York's Ebor meeting. He had the speed to quickly cross over from his wide draw to dispute the lead from the start. From there he simply lobbed along, using his big stride to comfortably force a very strong gallop.

Before the two furlong pole Roaring Forte had everything in trouble and forged clear despite running a bit green.

Roaring Forte is a good-bodied, scopey sort that looks likely to stay ten furlongs judged by his physique. So I can understand why trainer Willie Haggas says he found seven furlongs too short last time.

This was a Group class performance on the clock so I'll be wary of opposing Roaring Forte in the near future. He's the best horse his trainer has had in ages.

JUKEBOX JURY SET TO WIN SOMETHING BIG

I thought JUKEBOX JURY (29) was going to run a big race in the Great Voltigeur. But it now looks clear that unless he has a searching early pace or a bit of cut in the ground he's vulnerable. Here he got caught totally flat-footed when the front running winner picked up the gallop. Obviously he doesn't have much of a turn of foot. But he showed at Haydock before just how determined a galloper he is. He has some smart form and I can see him winning something big soon.

The winner MONITOR CLOSELY (35) was allowed to get away with setting a moderate early pace before sprinting for home. I've given him ratings as big as 40 (Group 2 class) in the past and he would probably have run to that here if the pace had been stronger. I had thought the ground would be a bit fast for him seeing he's such a heavy topped horse. But it turns out the fast times up the straight were the result of a strong tailwind. The going underfoot was actually slightly on the slow side of good judged by times around the turn.

I can't see Monitor Closely getting the St Leger trip seeing that he had yet to prove he even stays twelve furlongs in a truly run race and is really bred for ten. But he'll appreciate the softer ground which prevails in the Autumn and isn't that far off Group 1 class.

Third placed FATHER TIME (31) is a quirky but fascinating horse. He cruises along in the early stages of all his races and looks like he's going to blow by everything and win in a canter. But if the homestraight is too long, as it was here, his effort collapses like a punctured balloon.

So far Father Time has run four times on tracks with homestraights of three furlongs or more and lost every time. He's won two out of two on tracks with shorter homestraights.

Here Father Time cruised along as ever. But his head came up as it always does up a long homestraight and he wasn't doing a tap in the final furlong or so.

Father Time has a terrific turn of foot and would surely do really well in Germany, Hong Kong, Australia or America where the short homestraights would suit him perfectly. He has any amount of ability and could well win Group 1's in those countries. In Britain, Ireland and France the homestraights are just too long for all the Group 1 races he might run in.

THE BETCHWORTH KID GETS INTERESTING

THE BETCHWORTH KID (35) hit form on soft ground towards the end of last season. I'm thinking a repeat is likely having seen how well he ran in the Ebor. He had a dreadfully tough time fighting through traffic problems and passed the post in a very close seventh spot moving more strongly than any of his rivals. My ratings say he can run several lengths quicker than this.

I know that the Racing Post and Timeform have given CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD (36) huge ratings for his narrow loss. But that's only because they build in what my research suggests is a vastly inflated weight for age allowance into their ratings. I had him running the same borderline Listed class rating he ran in the Ulster Derby. I'm biased in his favour if anything as I picked him to win the race, but I can't see him as a serious Leger candidate.

CAMPANOLOGIST MUST GO FOR BREEDERS’ CUP TURF

I’ve been scratching my head over CAMPANOLOGIST (38) all season. He’s grown and muscled up fantastically since last season. But it has only been at Ascot that he’s looked a Group 1 horse.

Finally at Haydock he showed what the trouble is: He needs a shorter home straight.

He fairly tanked along into the lead two furlongs out but then idled before getting unbalanced and slowing down quite dramatically to get caught in the final furlong.

Campanologist has won minor races on tracks with long homestraights. But he’s truly excelled on courses with short ones. So far he’s run on tracks with short home straights (three furlongs or less) three times on the fast ground he needs. And he would have won every time but for getting caught late in the Hardwicke Stakes.

Last year Campanologist became the only horse ever to beat Conduit in the five runs that brilliant horse has had over twelve furlongs plus when winning the King Edward VII Stakes. Clearly the short run in was the key to his success there. Seeing that he’s Breeders’ Cup nominated his connections will be missing a very big trick if the don’t run him in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, a race where Conduit looks set to start red hot favourite.

Before then I’d like to see Campanologist take up his entry in the Grosser Preis von Baden. The short home straight at Baden-Baden will suit him perfectly, and if the going comes up fast (which it does two years out of three) I’d give him a major chance of beating Getaway and the rest.

I very much doubt that JUKEBOX JURY (38) would have got by Campanologist if the Godolphin runner hadn’t eased himself up. But he’s and admirably game and consistent horse who just never stops trying. He looked in trouble when Campanologist kicked on as he had half a dozen horses in front of him and was being ridden vigorously. But the strong pace brought his stamina into play and he was able to get up. I’d say the ten and a half furlongs of this race is actually a bit short for him in normal circumstances. He’ll surely be stepped up to a mile and a half for the Great Voltigeur next time, and I see him improving for the extra distance.

LONG LASHES A BIG THREAT TO CABARET IN MOYGLARE

LONG LASHES (37) was pretty much a certainty on the clock to win the Sweet Solera Stakes. And she duly took the race comfortably despite running green in front.

Always moving much more smoothly than her rivals, Long Lashes picked up well to lead before putting her head a little too high in the air and idling in the closing stages. This is no doubt why she wears a sheepskin noseband (because it forces her to lower her head to see the ground in front of her).

Long Lashes had a good deal in hand of her rivals here and would have surely won by another length or two if she’d exerted herself a bit more.

What was most impressive is that Long Lashes is tall and strong, very reminiscent of her sire Rock Hard Ten, a ten furlong G1 winner. To be so effective over seven furlongs, admittedly on yielding ground, suggests she could be really smart over longer.

I do hope that Cabaret lines up for the Moyglare Std Stakes as the showdown between her and Long Lashes shapes up as one of the highlights of the season.

I know that her big targets are at the Dubai Carnival early next year. But it’s surely going to be very tempting to run Long Lashes in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. She’d have a serious shot there.

Long term I don’t see any good reason why Long Lashes shouldn’t handle fast ground. But the 1000 Guineas doesn’t seem a logical target. It will come a bit quick after her Dubai campaign, and I suspect she’s going to prove better over ten furlongs next year rather than a mile.

I WON’T HEAR A WORD SAID AGAINST LIBEL LAW

LIBEL LAW (37) impressed me when taking a very strongly run handicap over ten and a half furlongs at Haydock on Saturday. Seeing that he’s a deep chested horse that’s built and bred for a mile and a half, perhaps more, I’d have thought he might have had trouble going the scorching early pace. Not a bit of it. He was fairly tanking along in a close fourth place and actually looked like he wanted to go faster. He began to move away from his rivals as the race developed into a test of stamina in the closing stages and ended up winning rather nicely.

I rated this run a solid Listed class performance and would anticipate him improving on it over a mile and a half in future.

DANCOURT (35) was strongly fancied to win on the basis of his impressive win in fast time at Sandown. But he shows a bit of knee action and didn’t seem very comfortable on the faster ground this time. He nonetheless ran well enough to suggest that when the Autumn rains arrive he’ll have a big shot of landing a valuable handicap.

MONTAFF PROBABLY PREFERS FASTER GROUND

Watching PRINCE SIEGFRIED (36) win at Newmarket made it clear why he needs cut in the ground. He displayed a worrying choppy action and is clearly not the soundest of horses.

A much better proposition for the long term I would think is the runner up MONTAFF (33). He’d scrambled home in a weak maiden on heavy ground but is a horse that has a very decent turn of foot. Like most such horses he looks to need a quicker surface and appeared to be floundering on the yielding ground in the closing stages.

Trainer Mick Channon was calling Montaff his next Youmzain after he’d run second by a neck in the Lingfield Derby Trial to the useful Age Of Aquarius. But the horse stopped like he was shot when fading badly in the closing stages of the Derby and the King Edward VII Stakes on his next two starts, getting beat 30 and 22 lengths.

Following his improved run in a very slow run Gordon Stakes last time And his good run here over ten furlongs it appears much more likely than not that Montaff does not stay a mile and a half in a truly run race.

It now seems most probable that he managed to run second at Lingfield because the course is steeply downhill in the closing stages, the ground was lightning fast and the early pace was a crawl. This would explain why he’s stopped so badly in more strongly run races over half a furlong longer on his next two outings. And also why he ran an improved race over a mile and a half last time when the early pace was again slow.

Pedigree backs up the idea too as Montaff’s dam scored her last win when stepped back to seven furlongs and his only winning sibling didn’t stay even that far.

On fast turf or Polytrack I see Montaff as a likely pattern race winner before the season is out.

Third placed NATIVE RULER (32) is a giant horse with an enormous stride and very little in the way of acceleration. He always figured to get outpaced if the race developed into a sprint finish, which it did. It could well be he disliked the slow surface and the cut back to ten furlongs as well. Previously he’d run fast enough to win in pattern company

RIP VAN WINKLE WAKES UP

I had thought that RIP VAN WINKLE (44) would win everything this season. But it was finally revealed last week that he’d been suffering from a foot infection since the Spring which had held him back. He was still severely lame the day before but made it to the post for the Sussex Stakes and turned in a second consecutive stellar performance to clock a seriously fast time.

Watch the runner up Paco Boy and you’ll see just how good Rip Van Winkle’s performance was. Paco Boy was cruising early in the straight and quickly sprinted four lengths clear of dual Group 1 winner Ghanaati as he set off in pursuit of the winner. Only briefly did it look like he had a chance of making an impression. Then it became apparent that Rip Van Winkle was going to be able to sustain the strong gallop and the race was over.

The QEII and the Breeders’ Cup Classic look the logical targets for Rip Van Winkle now. He’s just as fast as his former stablemate Henrythenavigator on my speed ratings. And of course Henrythenavigator ran second to Raven’s Pass in both those races. However Rip Van Winkle does seem to have a bit more stamina than Henrythenavigator and is more versatile in terms of surface and type of track as well. So there has to be a good chance that he will succeed where that one failed in at least one of those races.

Before this race PACO BOY (42) had won all nine times he’d run in fields of ten or less. He’s a bit below average size and tends to get into traffic problems in bigger fields. He tried valiantly to retain his unbeaten record in small fields but was up against a serious international class performer here.

If Paco Boy gets a small enough field he’ll have a great chance of repeating his win in the Prix de la Foret at Longchamp. Other than that I’m not sure exactly what else he can win. If he were mine I’d be inclined to bundle him off to stud after the French race.

GHANAATI (38) ‘felt a little flat’ according to her jockey, shifted her ground and ran about two lengths below her best on my speed ratings. I’m not really sure where she goes from here as this run seems to demonstrate she’s not up to beating colts. It looks likely she’ll have a tough time beating the best older fillies too. If she were mine I’d rest her then bring her back for the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes at Keeneland in October. That race is a very weak Grade 1 that’s restricted to three year old fillies. And the American three year old turf fillies are massively inferior to Ghanaati. It should be a slam dunk for here whereas everything in Europe looks hard if not impossible for her from now on.

I really liked the way BEACON LODGE (32) surged up into a pretty close fourth spot around a furlong out. The ground was clearly too fast for him and on a softer surface my strong suspicion is that he’d have been a decent third. I continue to believe he’s capable of taking a Group 1 race when he gets some cut in the ground.

HARBINGER NO LEGER HORSE

I think that trainer Sir Michael Stoute immediate post-race reaction was right after the Gordon Stakes. The winner HARBINGER (25) is just too pacey to be a viable Leger candidate. I estimate he’d have earned a speed rating of around 39 from me if the pace had been strong. But the way he picked up so tremendously well off the slow early pace when the sprint finish developed made him look like a ten furlong horse running against stayers.

Harbinger’s sire was a miler. His dam was a miler. And two of his three siblings were five furlong sprinters. True, he is a scopey, rangy sort that does have the build of a mile and a half horse. But his sire has yet to produce a pattern winner over 14 furlongs or more, having sired 54 at shorter trips.

I reckon that Harbinger may well prove best over ten furlongs. He looks just the type of horse that could excel for Stoute as a four and five year old at middle distances. Right now though it sounds like his owners are going to pressure Stoute into running the horse at Doncaster where I’d bet on him not lasting home.

If there was a St Leger winner in the Gordon Stakes I reckon it was third placed URBAN POET (24) who had earned a Group 3 speed rating from me when romping home at Hamilton on his only previous start.

Urban Poet is a tall, long-striding colt that’s all about stamina rather than speed. So it was basically a suicidal move on the part of his jockey to set a slow pace. It was inevitable that he got outpaced and dropped back when the sprint finish began. But it was impressive how he was able to rally and come back at the winner despite getting squeezed out and having to switch around horses when begin his late run.

Most likely Urban Poet is going to need even further than the Leger trip. I can see him developing into a serious candidate for Mark Johnston in the Cup races next year. But it’s surely worth supplementing him for the final Classic.

XTENSION HAS A SERIOUS TURN OF FOOT

There was a flat out sprint finish for the Group 2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood. But that didn’t stop XTENSION (36) picking up in tremendous style to gain a huge amount of ground in the closing stages and win going right away.

This muscular, mature, good looking sort would be unbeaten in three starts but for running second to the freakishly fast Canford Cliffs at Royal Ascot. With his fast ground action I doubt that he’ll be effective on anything but fast ground. But when he gets it his turn of foot is going to make him tough to beat, especially in slow run races like this one.

Runner up MATA KERANJANG (34) looked to have the race won briefly when quickening up nicely to lead a furlong out but then got swamped for speed by the winner. He’d run third in that red hot renewal of the Prix Yacowlef at Deauville where Sorciere broke the track record when beating Special Duty. He’s run to the same sort of level in both races, that is around Listed class on my ratings. But my feeling is he’s going to prove a bit better than that, especially when he strengthens up and matures next year.

I was rather taken with the performance of CHAPERNO (30) who finished five and a half lengths behind the winner. He was moving well but boxed in just a length off the lead with two furlongs to go. He kept trying to take the gap but got bumped back in all three times he did so. Interference has much more effect in a sprint finish so he did well to finish so close. He’s a mature good looking sort that’s built and bred to go a mile. I think he’d have gone close with a clear run and would have appreciated a stronger pace.

ROMAN REPUBLIC IS GROUP CLASS

I liked the way ROMAN REPUBLIC (38) won a red hot ten furlong handicap for three year olds at Goodwood. Always prominent, he made a big move to kick on two furlongs out and held off two rivals who had looked to be going really well. His dam was third in the Prix Vermeille over a mile and a half and he certainly looks built to get that far.

It’s tough to say exactly how good Roman Republic is. But you don’t see anything but a Group racer make the kind of move he did here, and he clocked a Group 3 time.

Third placed MIRRORED (37) was cruising most of the way up the straight. It looked to be simply a matter of when his jockey chose to press the button. However this was his first try beyond a mile and the competition was fierce. So I think we can forgive him for not being able to get by such a smart winner and then being caught late for second. He keeps running one big race after another and will surely take something valuable before the season is out.

SOPRANIST (37) finished with a big surge to close in on the winner late despite racing with his head to one side. This is often a sign that a horse is feeling the ground. In this regard it’s interesting to note that his best previous run had come on soft ground. Here the ground was good to firm until rain turned it yielding an hour or so later. If the rain had arrived earlier I’m inclined to think he would have won. Certainly he’s worth following on a slower surface in the Autumn.

MOURILYAN WANTS SOFTER GROUND

I liked the way MOURILYAN (40) rallied strongly to mount a sustained challenge over the last quarter mile in the Goodwood Cup. He showed knee action as he did so and hung, both things which indicate a need for a softer surface. If he gets it in the Londsdale Cup at York next time he'll be hard to beat.

The winner SCHIAPARELLI (40) is a four time Group 1 winner that has always displayed plenty of stamina. Indeed he'd already won the German St Leger. So it was no big surprise to see him excel over two miles here. He's always looked vulnerable to horses with a superior turn of foot at a mile and a half. But his riders have countered this by either setting the pace or kicking on a long way from home and using his ability to sustain a strong gallop to hold off his rivals. This has been enough in normal Group 1's. However he's run unplaced in the two big international Group 1's he's contested, the Grosser Preis von Baden and the Arc. I'm not convinced it's a smart move to go for those two races again. I'd have thought he should stick to races around two miles now that he's proven he stays this far.

DICK TURPIN CAN DELIVER OVER LONGER

DICK TURPIN (37) is a big, strong, muscular, mature, rather tall and rangy juvenile that looks built for seven furlongs or a mile. So it's not surprising he took a while to find full stride when a sprint finish developed for the Richmond Stakes following a slightly slow pace to halfway. But he eventually got rolling and powered clear in the final furlong, looking like a potential Group 1 horse.

I know there's a lot of speed on the dam's side of his pedigree. But the way he ran here convinced me that Dick Turpin takes more after his sire who was smart at seven furlongs but did stay a mile. I can't say for sure whether Dick Turpin will get the longer trip. However the seven furlongs of the Goffs Million certainly looks within his compass and he'll be a worthy favourite when lining up for that race after a break.

NOSEDIVE (29) was stone last when the sprint finish began. So he did well to pass three horses. It's impossible to gain much ground when everything else is flying. His sire and dam were both milers and I'd like to see him go longer now. He's already shown smart form when finishing fourth in the Norfolk when hampered. I await his next run with great interest.

ZACINTO HAS TRAINED ON

ZACINTO (39) looked a terrific prospect last year and confirmed he's trained on when winning his comeback race over a mile at Goodwood in fast time. The way he was finishing convinces me that his connections are right to say he'll improve over ten furlongs. Seeing that he probably needed the run and would have preferred faster ground he does look to have some sort of chance in the Champion Stakes.

Runner up HARTLEY (39) kept on strongly and clearly improved for the step up to a mile. He's Group class over a mile and looks more than capable of winning a Listed or Group 3 contest soon.

I've mentioned before that PURE POETRY (38) is built and bred for ten furlongs. So it's surprising he's been kept to a mile. He's clearly useful over the trip. But the way he finished so strongly here will surely convince his connections to finally give him a shot over longer.

KATIYRA WILL BE INTERESTING BACK OVER A MILE

MIDDAY (39) failed to handle the bog-like conditions in the Irish Oaks. But she bounced back to her best to win the Nassau Stakes on ground that was about five seconds a mile faster.

I suspect that Midday's connections will be reluctant to pitch her in against old rival Sariska in the Yorkshire Oaks as the race may come too soon. But I'd still like to see her given a chance to set the record straight. She should have been awarded the Oaks in my opinion and is every bit as good as Sariska on my speed ratings.

Runner up RAINBOW VIEW (37) continues to earn the same speed ratings from me as she did last year. The obvious reason for this is that she hasn't grown since last year. The softening ground and increased distance were in her favour here, and she did run her best race of the year. But I think she'll struggle to win again in Group 1 company.

For me the horse to take out of the Nassau Stakes is KATIYRA (33). This smart filly was moving well when edging into a narrow lead two furlongs out. It’s quite possible that she tired afterwards because she needed the run. After all it was only her second start of the season and followed a five week break. She was eased inside the final furlong so clearly could have finished closer.

Then again I note with interest that Katiyra's only two upcoming entries are in the Matron and Sun Chariot Stakes, both of which are over a mile. This raises the interesting possibility that her connections believe she'll do better over a mile. The way that she tired late here plus the fact that she's unlucky not be unbeaten in three starts at short of ten furlongs suggests they may well be right.

CONDUIT ON TRACK FOR BREEDERS' CUP DOUBLE

CONDUIT (43) used his superior turn of foot to mow down his stablemates Tartan Bearer and Ask to win the King George. It was a somewhat messy affair as he drifted across the runner up when kicking clear. But he scored by nearly two lengths, confirming that he's the best mile and a half horse in training (I reckon he'd beat Sea The Stars over the trip in a true run race).

Conduit lost the King Edward VII Stakes by three quarters of a length when Frankie Dettori basically stole the race from the front by setting a slow pace on Campanologist. But he’s now won the other four times he’s run a mile and a half plus.

Last year Conduit clocked the fastest time of the whole two day Breeders’ Cup meeting when winning the Breeders’ Cup Turf. And his season is clearly being geared towards a second successive win in that race. This explains why he was run over the inadequate distance of ten furlongs on his two previous starts this term. He did well both times, losing by a short head to the smart Group 1 winner Cima De Triomphe then finishing third to the brilliant Sea The Stars in the Eclipse.

Conduit clocked the fastest time in the 26 year history of the Breeders’ Cup Turf. The horse he beat into second went on to win another of the world’s most valuable turf races, the Hong Kong Cup, next time. And there was another two and a quarter lengths back to the rest of a very strong field.

With wins in a Classic, Britain's top WFA race and the Breeders' Cup Turf, Conduit now looks like one of the best mile and a half horses we’ve seen in the last decade.

I imagine Conduit will now be given a rest before he gears up for another assault on the Breeders' Cup meeting. The bookies seem to think he has a great chance of winning the Arc. But it's worth bearing in mind that no horse has ever pulled off the Arc/Breeders' Cup double. And the seven Arc runners that did win the big US race all lost at Longchamp. As Andre Fabre once said "Far too many trainers see the Breeders' Cup as an afterthought to the Arc." I'm sure a trainer as good as Sir Michael Stoute won't make that mistake. If he runs Conduit in the Arc it will simply be as a prep race.

If he were mine I'd be looking at the Japan Cup or Arima Kinnen as targets for Conduit after the Breeders' Cup. A win in either race as well as the Breeders' Cup would push Conduit just past the European earnings record. And they'd both make good targets for Conduit seeing that he's clearly well suited to the searching early pace that's the norm in Japan.

TARTAN BEARER (42) did have to take up when Conduit went across him late. But he wouldn't have been more than half a length closer without the interference.

Basically Tartan Bearer has never done a thing wrong. He ran second in a sprint on his debut. However he’s won three of his subsequent seven starts, and the only horses to finish in front of him since have all been Group 1 winners.

Tartan Bearer has now run second in three Group 1's and is clearly fast enough to win a race at the top level. The big problem is that he takes a worryingly long time to get into full stride. His three wins have all come on tracks with homestraights of at least half a mile. He was a sitting duck for Conduit here. He also took a while to get into top gear when he got beat half a length last time out. And he also lost the other time he ran on a track with a homestraight shorter than half a mile when fourth in the Irish Derby (promoted to third).

The logical immediate target for Tartan Bearer would seem to be the Juddmonte International where York's five furlong homestraight would suit him admirably. Then again that race may come too soon and the opposition could be too strong. The only other race I can see for him on a track with a long enough homestraight is the Champion Stakes at Newmarket. That contest often comes up soft these days, so it would give him a great shot of finally cracking it in a Group 1.

ASK (42) surprised me with how well he ran to finish third. I thought the ground would be too firm for him. I also thought he wasn't a proper Group 1 horse. It turns out I was wrong on both counts.

It does seem clear that Ask needs to be fresh to produce his best form. So the logical thing to do would be not to race him again before the Arc.

ALWAARY (40) ran a big race to be fourth. He came from the back with a good run and kept tabs on the first three all through the final stages while rapidly pulling four lengths clear of the rest.

It looks like the St Leger is now the plan for Alwaary as his next run will apparently be the big Leger prep the Great Voltigeur. The stats certainly make him look interesting for Doncaster, at least those I can check. I found that five of the last six horses to reach the first three in the King George which ran in the St Leger won. Sadly the results I can find on the internet don't give me the Leger record of horses that ran fourth in the big Ascot race. In any event, seeing how quickly he scooted four lengths clear of the former Leger favourite Golden Sword here 8-1 does look rather big for the final Classic for this smart three year old.

SCINTILLO finished tailed off. But I'm now getting rather interested in him once more.

He clearly didn't get home off the strong gallop here but has shown repeatedly that he can produce a phenomenal turn of foot off a slow early pace. He covered the last four furlongs in just 45.35 seconds when winning the Winter Derby and came home even quicker when second to the smart Buccellati in that wild sprint finish for the Ormonde Stakes. He again picked up in the most amazing fashion off an incredibly slow early gallop to win the Group 2 Grand Prix de Chantilly two runs back. However he's got beat a distance here and 19, 16 and 14 lengths when running unplaced the previous three times he’d tackled more strongly run races. In addition his only three wins beyond a mile have all been off a very slow early pace indeed. He’s lost all nine times he’s had to go any sort of early gallop beyond a mile.

There are a lot of countries where they go slow in the early stages of big turf races and tend to have the firm ground that Scintillo needs. But Britain is not one of them. If he were mine I'd be looking at races in Hong Kong, America or Australia where his terrific turn of foot would make him a formidable opponent in the slow run races they tend to have over ten furlongs plus.

KIRKLEES STILL TOUGH TO BEAT OVER TEN FURLONGS

KIRKLEES (41) took his record over ten furlongs on fast ground to five out of five when winning the Group 2 Sky Bet York Stakes. In doing so he showed here that he can win in a sprint finish which is a big plus for the big international races he looks set to contest in future.

After adjusting for the sectional times I awarded Kirklees a borderline Group 1 class speed rating for the fourth time here. He may not be quite good enough to win the Juddmonte International over the course and distance next time. But it's far from impossible and he deserves a lot more respect than he's getting.

I was impressed with the way ALLIED POWERS (40) finished to take second. The sprint finish, fast ground and short distance were all against him. Over a longer trip, preferably with more cut in the ground, he's very capable of taking a Group 2. In fact the race I'd be shooting for is the Group 1 Premio, one of the few Italian Group 1's that really is a weak contest for the class. And it's usually run on the soft ground that Allied Powers favours too.

The dual South African Group 1 winner KINGS GAMBIT (40) also finished nicely to take fourth. I note that all his three wins since his maiden success came at Turffontein, the stiffest track in South Africa. And his latest success was in a mile and a half Group 1 run on soft ground at the course. Clearly a greater test of stamina will suit him too.

CURTAIN CALL (39) ran a great race on ground that was too fast for him to take a close fourth. When he gets softer ground in the Autumn I can see him winning a very good contest, quite possibly a Group 1.

MONITOR CLOSELY (38) pulled hard against the slow early pace and once more put his head to the side, as he always seems to when the ground is a bit too fast for him. He kept on nicely in the circumstances to finish a close fifth. I've had my eye on him for some time as a likely big race winner. Nothing he did here dispelled that notion.

TAZEEZ (35) has still yet to win in seven starts outside the two tracks closest to his home stables (Newmarket and Yarmouth). But he led till nearly a quarter mile out here and didn't get beat that far. I still see him as a possible huge upset winner if he returns to Newmarket for the Champion Stakes in October. He's won four times out of five at Newmarket and Yarmouth and run fast enough to win a weak Group 1 (which the Champion Stakes quite often is these days).

MUDAARAAH LOOKS GOOD FOR MAY HILL

John Dunlop has a remarkable record in the Star Stakes at Sandown. He’s had a total of nine runners in the race and six of them won. It would have been seven out of nine if one half length loss had gone his way.

This year Dunlop won the Star Stakes with MUDAARAAH (35), a half sister to Sudoor who won the race for him in 2006.

Mudaaraah won rather impressively on her racecourse debut at Folkestone. In that race she quickly moved up from seventh by five lengths to a one length lead when shaken up inside the last two furlongs. Her jockey was clearly at pains not to put her under too much pressure as she looked a bit green. But she smoothly moved clear and looked to be crying out for a seventh furlong.

The second and third both franked the form of Mudaaraah's Folkestone win by scoring next time out. But Mudaaraah herself flopped when running unplaced as 2-1 favourite in a Listed contest at Newmarket.

It looks pretty clear that the reason Mudaaraah ran below form at Newmarket was because there was cut in the ground. Race times indicate it was firm at Folkestone but on the slow side of good at Newmarket, just like the official going report suggest. Mudaaraah has a fast ground action. So I strongly suspect that she disliked the going at Newmarket. In addition she apparently scoped dirty after the race. Plus the six furlongs of the race was inadequate.

Mudaaraah has the build of a ten furlong horse. Indeed two of her three siblings seemed best over that distance. So the step up to seven furlongs at Sandown looked sure to suit her. And it did. She came from stone last entering the straight and swept by everything on the outside to win going away, passing the line still moving strongly.

The unusually strong pace and the steep uphill finish almost certainly helped Mudaaraah here. So I was pleased to here that she’s due to be stepped up to a mile for the May Hill Stakes and the Fillies Mile. I think she might be in trouble over seven furlongs in a more normally run race.

I suspect that fast ground is always going to be important for Mudaaraah. She’s probably not a Guineas filly. But next year she could be very decent over ten furlongs. Meanwhile she looks to have a great shot of taking the May Hill Stakes if she gets her ground.

DANCOURT IS INCREDIBLY WELL HANDICAPPED

DANCOURT (37) is a full brother to the smart Group 2 winner Stage Gift. And he looks destined for pattern race success of his own after running away with a Sandown handicap on his first try over ten furlongs.

Dancourt fairly powered away in the closing stages, clearly appreciating the extra distance, just like his brother did. He’s a good-bodied, strong, useful looking sort that’s clearly a lot better than the official rating of 83 he ran off here suggests.

Even if he gets a big penalty for this win Dancourt is going to be rated a good deal lower than he should be. So I imagine his connections must be thinking in terms of a valuable handicap for him next time out.

Judging by his stride pattern and his brother’s record I can see Dancourt improving on the softer ground which tends to prevail in the Autumn. All in all he looks like a horse that simply must be followed for the remainder of the season. He’s improved with every run and looks set to continue doing so.

BARSHIBA HAS A SHOT IN GROUP 1 COMPANY

Newmarket’s Aphrodite Stakes breaks the usual rules that apply in pattern races. Normally pattern race winners are improving sorts that haven't yet run their best. They tend to be going up in class too. But not in the Aphrodite Stakes. The stats show that horses which have already run really big and are dropping in class have a huge chance.

When the Aphrodite Stakes is contested by a horse that had already earned a Racing Post rating higher than 105 and ran in Group company last time it's time to sit up and take notice. The last eight times a horse fitting that description has run in the race they've won, from a total of just thirteen such runners in the eight qualifying years.

This year only one horse in the Aphrodite Stakes matched this profile and that was BARSHIBA (38) who duly won.

Two runs back Barshiba went off much too fast in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot and kept on remarkably well to get beat just seven lengths, earning a pattern class speed rating from me. That was her first try over a mile and a half and she clearly appreciated it, as she showed when winning the Group 2 Lancashire Oaks over twelve furlongs on her run before the Aphrodite Stakes.

At Newmarket Barshiba made all the running at a strong pace to win by three lengths. The timer she clocked puts her within a length or two of what’s needed to win the Nassau Stakes or the Yorkshire Oaks. She has now won three of the last four times she’s run ten furlongs or more and might well be good enough to make it four out of five in much better company next time.

PERKS SHOULD WIN SOON

I thought PERKS (38) was a great bet to win a one mile Conditions race at Doncaster as he was running in what looked to be ideal conditions. He loves a slower surface. And he’d won three of the four times he’d run on dead flat tracks - including two out of two at Doncaster.

Sure enough Perks ran a big race and actually ran fast enough to win a Group 3. But that wasn’t quite good enough to get by DREAM LODGE (38) who prevailed by a short head.

With hindsight I can now see that Dream Lodge was also running in optimum circumstances. He’s clearly best at a mile in single figure fields on galloping tracks. He’s now won the last four times he’s run below pattern class in these circumstances and finished second and third in Listed company in his two tries at that level in small fields on galloping tracks at a mile.

Perks is the younger of the two horses, and the best looking one too. I see him as a good prospect to win something decent sooner rather than later.