POET'S VOICE ISN'T JUST TALK

POET'S VOICE (40) has chosen a bad year to be a good miler. In many years the kind of time he clocked to win the Celebration Mile would be good enough to win a Group 1 race over a mile because it's often a weak division. But this year there are a lot of smart milers including several that have run faster than he has.

I liked the way Poet's Voice came clear when shaken up in the closing stages. I clocked him running the last three furlongs just two fifths of a second slower than Theyskens' Theory did winning the Group 3 Prestige Stakes over a furlong less off a much slower early pace.

One thing that looked significant is that although the ground was yielding judged by race times Poet's Voice showed a fast ground action which means he'll likely be suited by a quicker surface.

It may well be significant that if a short head photo had gone his way Poet's Voice would be unbeaten in four starts in single figure fields over 7-8 furlongs but has lost all four times he's run in races with more runners. He's a tough horse to be sure about at this stage as he might just be good enough to take a Group 1. The race I'd be aiming him at is next month's Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland because it usually features a small field and I reckon Godolphin racing manager Simon Crisford is right to say the horse will be suited by the tight turning track.

ST LEGER THE WRONG RACE FOR REWILDING

REWILDING (44) put up the best performance of the season on my speed ratings when taking the Great Voltigeur Stakes. In a very strongly run race he came there cruising halfway up the straight and only had to be ridden out to go four lengths clear of the half length Irish Derby runner up Midas Touch.

He's now as short as 6-4 for the St Leger. And I wouldn't be surprised if he started odds on by post time. However if he were mine there's no way I'd consider running Rewilding in the St Leger following this performance.

First of all the Leger comes just 25 days after this enormous effort. With a normal horse there would be a major chance of him not recovering in time from such a fast effort. With Rewilding there looks to be an even bigger chance as his record suggests he's best with rests between his runs. This is evidenced by his below par run in the Derby following which was sandwiched between his two impressive wins in the Cocked Hat Stakes and this race off lay-offs.

Secondly there's a real doubt on pedigree about Rewilding getting the St Leger distance. His sire, Tiger Hill, only just got a mile and a half. And so far Tiger Hill's 34 pattern race winners have all been at a mile and a half or less. His nine runners over longer trips in black type races have all lost.

Rewilding's dam Darara won the Vermeille over a mile and a half and never ran longer. She's had eleven foals to date. Of these Dariyoun did win an unlisted Spanish race over 1m 6f from five attempts beyond a mile and a half but ended up being cut back to a mile when second on his final start in America. None of her other ten foals won beyond 12.5 furlongs.

Thirdly, the blindingly obvious target for Rewilding, and a race his former trainer Andre Fabre has already entered him in, is the Arc. If he went for that race he'd have nearly seven weeks to recover from his taxing run in the Voltigeur and he wouldn't be asked to run a distance he may well not stay. In addition he wouldn't be suffering the huge loss in stud value which comes from running a potential stallion like him beyond a mile and a half nowadays.

In the old days it was the norm for top class horses, including Derby winners, to run in the St Leger. But you have to go back to 1991 to find a horse that ran in the final Classic after earning a Racing Post rating as high as Rewilding got at York.

I can see the counter arguement. This is that Rewilding was just one of the top three or four in a fantastically strong crop of French three year olds. By staying in Britain he'll be able to dominate the relatively weak bunch of three year olds he'll be facing. If he went back to France he'd be tackling other members of their red hot Classic generation - notably Behkabad who continues to look a very serious horse.

I'm guessing that Sheikh Mohammed is locked into a long term plan to go for the St Leger with Rewilding. No doubt he'll be encouraged by the fact that three of the last four horses Godolphin ran in the Voltigeur went on to win the St Leger, and that Rewilding is clearly better than any of them. Personally I'll be siding against him, almost certainly with Snow Fairy, and betting that he bounces back next year to become one of the world's top mile and a half horses.

Runner up MIDAS TOUCH (41) had a hard race like the winner but I'm betting he recovers better as he's such a durable sort. He does lack a little for acceleration but that won't be anything like as much of a problem over the extra two and a half furlongs at Doncaster.

Good as the first two are I suspect that if there was a Leger winner in this year's Voltigeur it will turn out to be third placed JOSHUA TREE (40). A furlong and a half out I was fretting that he was going to force his way into the middle of what I'd thought was a sure fire straight forecast. At that stage he was moving really well having swept through down the outside. I even thought he might give the winner trouble at one point. But then he looked to blow up through lack of fitness off his lengthy break (it was his first run of the season). He was not unduly punished, his jockey looking around to be sure he had third place safe before letting him have an easy time of things in the last half furlong.

There's little doubt that Joshua Tree will move forward off this race a good deal more than the first two. He's a big-bodied sort that's clearly grown and filled out a good deal since lasts season. He ran as fast as the average Leger winner on my speed ratings and I'm not forgetting the terrific time and turn of foot he showed to take the Royal Lodge Stakes last season. That day he clocked a time only 0.73 of a second slower than Rip Van Winkle did in the QEII on the same card and came home four fifths of a second faster than his brilliant older stablemate in the final furlong.

I'm actually hoping that Joshua Tree doesn't win the St Leger or any Group 1 this season as that will probably ensure he's kept in training next season where he and Jan Vermeer will give Aidan O'Brien a strong hand in the big mile and a half Group 1 races for older horses.

SNOW FAIRY THE ONE TO BEAT IN THE LEGER

SARISKA lost whatever chance she had in the Yorkshire Oaks by planting herself in the starting stalls. At the same time she compromised the chances of SNOW FAIRY (37) and enhanced those of Midday. Midday was able to win the ten furlong Nassau Stakes in a sprint finish last time and only just gets twelve furlongs. Snow Fairy on the other hand won a very strongly run Irish Oaks over twelve furlongs, totally outstaying her opponents to power eight lengths clear.

Sariska looked sure to press habitual front runner Barshiba to go a decent gallop to offset her own lack of acceleration. Without her in the race Barshiba was allowed a soft lead and was able to quicken things up from the front. As a result the field traveled at a rate of just 12.7 seconds a furlong for the first seven furlongs but sped up to run the last five furlongs at a rate of 12.3 seconds per furlong.

The near sprint finish suited Midday admirably. Even so Snow Fairy was starting to claw her way back to the Cecil filly in the final furlong after initially getting a bit chopped for speed.

I reckon that if Sariska had started and pressed Barshiba Snow Fairy would have come out on top and stretched her unbeaten record over middle distances to four races.

The 6-1 the bookies are offering about Snow Fairy for the St Leger looks too big to me. She looks certain to improve for the step up to the extended mile and six furlongs.

The big factor that persuades me Snow Fairy is a smart bet for the St Leger is that fillies have a terrific record in the race due to the huge bias that exists in thoroughbred breeding circles against stallions that are proven stayers.

Owners of genuine Group 1 colts are always wary of running their horses in the St Leger for fear of them getting tagged as plodders and being consigned to the ranks of national hunt stallions when they retire. They know the stallions that command the biggest stud fees are those that win top races over ten furlongs or less. This is why an obvious stayer like Youmzain doesn't get run over more than a mile and a half. It also explains why Harbinger is now being targeted at the Juddmonte International instead of the Irish St Leger, which would clearly have been an easier target for him given his stamina.

Bloodstock experts will tell you that 'a horse gets its stamina from the dam'. This is complete nonsense of course. Anyone who's studied 'O' level biology will have come across Mendell's experiments with beans that showed heritability comes equally from all forebears, whether male or female.

However the bloodstock market believes this nonsense. And it creates an incentive to run really good fillies in the St Leger to prove their stamina. Couple this with the disincentive to run good colts and the reason for the smart record of fillies in the St Leger is obvious.

By using the Racing Post web site and the France Galop one at

http://www2.france-galop.com/FGWeb/domaines/chevaux/cheval_perf.aspx

I've been able to see how Oaks winners have fared in the St Leger over the last fourty years.

Here is their record in that period:

1999 Ramruma second 10-11

1992 User Friendly WON 7-4

1988 Diminuendo second 4-7

1985 Oh So Sharp WON 8-11

1983 Sun Princess WON 11-8

1977 Dunfermline WON 10-1

1972 Ginevra third

Four wins from seven tries isn't bad - and note the short prices of most of them.

I can't check back fully further than that. However the German web site at

http://www.galopp-sieger.de/galoppsieger/sieger?rennkz=EL&backlink=1

does have the first three in the St Leger back to 1835.

The stats for the last fourty years show that all Oaks winners that ran in the St Leger reached the first three. So it's likely that the German web site actually lists the vast majority of Oaks winners that ran in the St Leger. This is how they fared:

1955 Meld WON

1942 Sun Chariot WON

1918 My Dear second

1915 Snow Marten second

1905 Cherry Lass third

1904 Pretty Polly WON

1902 Sceptre WON

1892 La Fleche WON

1890 Memoir WON

1888 Seabreeze WON

1885 Lonely third

1882 Gehimniss second

1878 Jannette WON

1874 Apology WON

1873 Marie Stuart WON

1871 Hannah WON

1868 Formosa WON

1865 Regalia second

1863 Queen Bertha second

1844 The Princess third

1835 Queen of Trumps WON

Thirteen wins from twenty one tries. This suggests that the four wins scored by the last seven Oaks winners to contest the St Leger is no blip but is in fact the historical norm.

MIDDAY (39) is an admirable filly and was deservedly winning her fourth Group 1 here. But she's clearly continuing to have physical problems because yet again she shifted her ground in the closing stages. She never did that before this season but has done so on every one of her starts this year. For this reason I'm inclined to oppose Midday in her remaining starts this year.

BREEDERS' CUP TURF THE RIGHT TARGET FOR RIP VAN WINKLE

I thought RIP VAN WINKLE (41) was a cert to win the Juddmonte International. But he had to come from behind into a near sprint finish and only got up late to beat a couple of rivals that are only just Group 1 class.

The early pace was ordinary, but my calculations suggest it wasn't slow enough to hurt the final time and that the last three furlongs weren't that quick. They went almost as fast for the first seven and a half furlongs as they did for the last three.

The way that Rip Van Winkle took so long to get rolling and finished so strong tells me that he's much more a middle distance horse than a miler now that he's strengthened up so noticably since his three year old days.

This being so, and taking into account there are so many smart three year old milers around this year, I'd say Rip Van Winkle is not going to become the first horse since Brigadier Gerard to win back to back QEII's. As I see it his best chance of top level success in the remainder of this season lies in the Breeders' Cup Turf.

Last season Rip Van Winkle stayed on strongly to be fourth by just two and a quarter lengths to the brilliant Sea The Stars in the Derby. Like the vast majority of horses by his sire Galileo he clearly stays a mile and a half. Indeed the way he ran here tells me he's crying out to go back up to that distance. Dropping down to a mile again does not sound like a great idea to me.

The second and third Twice Over (41) and Byword (41) are going to be hard to place to win again at the top level. But a couple of horses that finished behind them look good prospects to improve when they get the chance to go a mile and a half again.

The first of these is CAVALARYMAN (37) who has run nothing but big races over a mile and a half. He came through moving well and looked a real threat briefly. But he lacked the pace over this distance in the near sprint finish to get to the leaders. In addition he looked to be a bit intimidated when Rip Van Winkle went across him in the closing stages.

With this latter point in mind I note with interest that all Cavalryman's wins have been in single figure fields. He's lost all four times he's tackled races with more than nine runners. I'm thinking he's a little shy of traffic.

I do hope Cavalryman stops being run over ten furlongs. He's surely proven by now that he's better over twelve. I can see him winning something decent before the season is out over that trip. I don't think it will be the Arc as it figures to be a red hot race this year and the field may be too big for him. The Canadian International would be my favoured option as it's often run on yielding or softer ground which would help offset Cavalryman's lack of acceleration.

The other horse that wasn't suited by the near sprint finish was Italian raider JAKKALBERRY (33). He has the physique of an out and out mile and a half horse and needs a decent pace to run at according to his trainer. He tried to gain ground in the closing stages but lacked the pace to do so.

Watch the video of last year's Derby Italiano on Youtube and it's hard to escape the conclusion that Jakkalberry was an unlucky loser. He had just stormed through to take the lead when he jinked violently, bashed into the running rail, lost momentum and fell back to third in the closing stages.

What is significant about this is that Mastery, the eventual winner of the race, went on to take the St Leger.

Jakkalberry would have won his first three starts but for that swerve in the Derby Italiano. He lost his comeback race following a four month break but bounced back to win in good style before failing to cope with a sprint finish on fast ground in the Gran Premio di Milano.

Jakkalberry is a strong sort that grinds out his wins on stamina rather than finishing speed. As I've mentioned, his trainer says he needs a decent pace to run at, something he demonstrated once more two runs back when only sixth in the Premio Presidente della Repubblica over ten furlongs. However he bounced when stepped up to a mile and a half to take the Group 1 Gran Premio di Milano on his run before the Juddmonte from the useful pair Getaway and Campanologist (a dual G1 winner since).

If he'd encountered a strong pace in all his races and not swerved in the Derby Italiano it's quite possible Jakkalberry would have won all ten of his starts prior to tackling the Juddmonte.

It's best not to get sucked into the common belief that Italian horses are massively inferior to those trained elsewhere in Europe. Over the last fifteen years three Italian or former Italian horses ran at the Ebor meeting - Super Tassa, Electrocutionist and Falbrav. All three won Group 1 events.

It's not surprising that the top Italian horses have an affinity with York. The top Italian races are all run at the Cappannelle and San Siro, both of which are big, flat galloping courses with long homestraights - just like York.

The Gran Premio del Jockey Club is the obvious target for Jakkalberry as it's over a mile and a half and often features slow ground.

MARGOT DID SHOULD HAVE WON THE LOWTHER

HOORAY (36) was allowed to get away with setting a pretty soft pace in the Lowther and then quickened it up from the front in the last couple of furlongs. The early pace was slow enough to hurt the final time and force me to adjust my rating based on the sectional times. It seems to me that the second and maybe the third too would have beaten her in a more strongly run race.

Runner up MARGOT DID (35) looked particularly unlucky as she was boxed in with nowhere to go when the sprint for home and had four lengths to make up. She fairly flew home when finally finding a gap. My bet is she will turn this form around in the Cheveley Park.

Third placed RIMTH (32) was dropped out to last early, rushed up into third after halfway then seemed to totally lose focus and run green after two furlongs out. Her jockey had to stop riding in an effort to get her organised again and she slipped back to fourth. She finally got rolling again in the last 100 yards and picked up to go third once more.

It could be Rimth needs to go up in distance or else she simply needs more experience. The former idea seems the more likely as her dam was sprint bred but proved best at a mile.

SANS FRONTIERES GETS INTERESTING FOR IRISH LEGER & MELBOURNE CUP

I shared the concern of trainer Jeremy Noseda that SANS FRONTIERES (41) wouldn't act on the soft ground in the Geoffrey Freer Stakes. But he got through it without a problem. In fact he looked set to win by a pretty big margin when leading and clearly going best two furlongs out. But then he went walkabout after perhaps being in front too long and had to be ridden out to score by two and a quarter lengths.

It's easy to try and get creative explaining some of Sans Frontieres' previous losses. However the simplest explanation for most of those disappointing runs is that they were over inadequate distances. Sans Frontieres is by Galileo and most of Galileo's other top twenty offspring, as judged by Racing Post ratings, stayed a mile and three quarters. Indeed Galileo's original claim to fame is that horses from his first crop ran first, second and third in the St Leger.

Next time out Sans Frontieres will get the chance to win a St Leger of his own when he tackles the Irish version at the Curragh. Now that he's proven he can handle any ground it's hard to think what could beat him there. He has long looked like a Group 1 winner waiting to happen and is now starting to show what he can do over longer distances.

I do like the idea of shooting for the Melbourne Cup with Sans Frontieres. He's shown on his last two starts that he can produce seriously good form off the kind of moderate early pace he's likely to encounter at Flemington. And on faster ground last time he demonstrated a tremendous burst of finishing speed for a stayer.

Most Melbourne Cup winners in the past have stepped up in distance throughout the build up to the big race. Sans Frontieres has done exactly that this season. He started off at nine furlongs and will end up at fourteen in the Irish St Leger.

Runner up LAAHEB (40) is a long striding sort that shows a bit of knee action. He's won his only previous start on soft ground and his only previous try beyond ten furlongs, so he clearly benefited from the slow surface and step up in distance.

Previously I'd agreed with the assessment of trainer Mick Jarvis that Laaheb was only a Listed to Group 3 class horse. But this run suggests that on a surface soft enough to counter his lack of acceleration he could win a Group 2 at a mile and a half or more.

Third placed SAPTAPADI (39) Saptapadi has clearly had soundness issues as he'll be five in three and a half months but has only managed seven lifetime starts. He looked a decent stayer when an admittedly somewhat one-paced runner up in the Group 2 Henry II Stakes. But then he ran an absolute clunker when tailed off in the Curragh Cup.

Saptapadi's jockey said he didn't handle the firm ground at the Curragh. The vet report says he was "blowing hard post race", so clearly he was distressed.

A couple of days before the Geoffrey Freer Saptapadi's racing manager said "I don't know if he's a definite runner yet because of the ground. The horse is well but he wants the ground easier, so we'll see what happens. We think he just pulled a muscle at the Curragh but he seems to be fine now."

Clearly he was right because the rain softened ground enabled Saptapadi to bounce back to his best. He's obviously capable of winning a Group race over a staying distance when he gets similar conditions.

Further back in the field another Melbourne Cup candidate GOLDEN SWORD (38) ran a rather promising race, rallying to hold fourth when yet another Melbourne Cup entrant POMPEYANO (38) looked as though he was set to pass him with a late run. My impression is that this run will move Golden Sword forward just like his last run did. But I'd like to see him get one more run before going into quarantine for the big race, and I suspect he could win it. His trainer Jane Chapple-Hyam is the daughter of former Australian opposition leader Andrew Peacock, so I'm betting he was specially purchased for 'the race that stops a nation'.

Pompeyano is a smart horse around tighter tracks. So you might think he'd improve at Flemington. But he also seems best in small fields. In races with less than eleven runners he's won four out of four on the tight tracks he seems to favour - something he demonstrated once more when taking a four runner race at Epsom last time. In the cavalry charge that is the Melbourne Cup I suspect he'd run into traffic problems.

POET WANTS LONGER

POET (38) showed tremendous stamina to win the Group 3 Rose of Lancaster Stakes at Haydock. The big was allowed to use his huge stride to bowl along at a terrific pace, first chasing the front running Les Fazzani then taking up the running himself over three furlongs out. He just kept grinding away to the line as the effect of terrific early gallop and the soft ground offset his all too obvious lack of acceleration.

If one photo had gone his way Poet would have won four of the five times he's run on soft or heavy ground.

Thus far the ten and a half furlongs he tackled at Haydock is the furthest Poet has been asked to travel. But it looks to me like he's crying out for a step up to a mile and a half or more. Indeed he has the kind of physique and running style I'd normally associate with a Cup horse.

WHITE MOONSTONE PROBABLY A GROUP 1 FILLY

There are often some powerful statistics relating to big two year old races. This is certainly the case with the Sweet Solera Stakes at Newmarket.

There have been ten renewals of the Sweet Solera in the last fifteen years contested by fillies that won their sole start while earning a Racing Post rating of 78 or higher. Eight of the ten times one of them won from a total of seventeen tries.

In three of the four years that there were two qualifiers on this angle they ran first and second. In the one year there were three they ran 1-2-3. In one of the two losing years the highest rated qualifier lost by a mere half length.

This year the sole qualifier was WHITE MOONSTONE (36) who put up a rather impressive performance to score.

Up to three furlongs out the pace was moderate. But from there it became a sprint for home which they completed in a time two seconds faster than the good handicap over the same trip. Despite starting the sprint last of the nine runners and drifting towards the rail White Moonstone was able to prevail, picking up in terrific style to blast by all her rivals.

The field started the sprint all bunched up. By the end of it White Moonstone was starting to stretch the field right out, opening up big gaps between the runners. It looked like the performance of a Group 1 filly. My rating points the same way too when I adjust for the effect of the slow early pace and sprint finish with a formula I've developed. Many years this sort of performance is good enough to win the Fillies' Mile which is now White Moonstone's big target.

White Moonstone actually ran just as fast in a truly run race as my adjusted rating suggests when clocking the fastest time up the straight on the Ascot card last time on her debut. She's a good looking, mature filly with a fair bit of size and substance that only had to be pushed out with hands and heels to win comfortably that day. She looked to have a bit in hand this time too. The 25-1 you can get about her for the 1000 Guineas looks rather big to me.

WIGMORE HALL DOESN'T NEED A BIG FIELD ANY MORE

The runners came up the centre of the course in the hot Conditions race at Newmarket won by WIGMORE HALL (39). This made it impossible to take the sectional times. But they quickened up visibly and looked to come home a lot quicker than they did in the handicap over the same trip. So I'm happy to assign the winner a rating in line with that suggest by the first three's previous form.

Wigmore Hall was most impressive. Always cruising in last place, he coasted up to the useful CHABAL (38) and simply ambled by him to win with any amount in hand.

The big plus about this run is that it shows Wigmore Hall no longer needs the cover provided by a big field to produce his best. He saw plenty of daylight in this six runner contest and the early pace was moderate but he showed no sign of pulling at all.

Wigmore Hall's next race is set to be the Secretariat Stakes at Arlington. That is a Grade 1 contest but it actually represents a crop in class from this event as the American turf three year olds are invariably a very slow bunch. All Wigmore Hall has to do is come within a couple of lengths of this effort and the race will be his.

If he wins the Secretariat Stakes in the style I expect I imagine Wigmore Hall's owner may well consider using the prize money to pay for the $100,000 supplementary entry fee need to get him into the Breeders' Cup Turf. I reckon it would be money well spent because Wigmore Hall has the turn of foot that wins slow run races like those they run on turf in America. He should be able to handle anything the Americans run in the race, so his main opposition would be from back home.

Chabal was swamped for finishing speed by the winner but is clearly a good horse in his own right seeing how big a gap he opened on the rest. It's hard to tell off a video, but I have to say it looks like he's grown and filled out significantly in the three months since his last outing. This being so he may not need the breaks between his runs he appeared to require before.

CANFORD CLIFFS LOOKING UNSTOPPABLE

I thought there were decent reasons to oppose CANFORD CLIFFS (43) in the Sussex Stakes. He was returning from a six week break following four tough races in a row, so I figured he might need the run. There was also the concern he might not handle the undulations seeing how the dip at Newmarket had unbalanced him.

However champions always seems to find a way to win and Canford Cliffs did so here, producing a brilliant turn of foot in the final furlong to catch the top class older horse RIP VAN WINKLE (43) - himself one of the best horses in recent years.

Clearly Richard Hannon is right to say that Canford Cliffs is the best horse he's ever trained. I do hope his rather ordinary pedigree dissuades his connections from retiring him to stud at the end of this season. The horse could do some extraordinary things if kept in training.

Canford Cliffs has already won three Group 1's this year and began his season back in April. However the season has barely begun for Rip Van Winkle who didn't make his seasonal debut until Royal Ascot last time.

Trainer Aidan O'Brien wisely employed Encompassing as a pacemaker for Rip Van Winkle who ran fourth in the Derby and second in the Eclipse. And Encompassing did his job well but failed to expose any chinks in the armour of Canford Cliffs. He was still able to swamp the top Coolmore colt for finishing speed.

Coolmore are a hard-nosed business operation. They've become the most successful stud farm on the planet by focusing hard on the bottom line and doing absolutely everything possible to boost the stud value of their potential stallions.

This being so you have to ask yourself would they throw away an entire breeding season worth over 2 million Euros with Rip Van Winkle if they didn't think they could boost his reputation and therefore his stud fees by racing him as a four year old.

So far Coolmore have run seven horses at four that earned Racing Post ratings of 125 plus as three year olds. You can't count George Washington because he only returned to racing after proving infertile as a stallion, so his return wasn't an effort to boost his stud value. You can't count Milan either because he was a stayer and stayers have very little stud value in Europe. But the other five all went on to win again at least once in Group 1 company and thereby boost their stud value.

Seeing that Rip Van Winkle's three year old career was blighted by a hoof problem that's now been fixed it makes sense that he should do better as a four year old. He showed tremendous ability last year and might well have won the Guineas, the Derby and the Eclipse Stakes besides his other two Group 1 successes if only he hadn't encountered traffic problems and a once in a decade 3YO champ in Sea The Stars. He twice earned speed ratings of 44 from me which is absolutely massive and came close to that here. In fact he's in the top ten of European 3YO's to race in the last decade on both my ratings and those of the Racing Post.

O'Brien said that Rip Van Winkle would come on for this run which makes sense. My feeling is that he's better over ten furlongs than the mile of this race so the Juddmonte International and Irish Champion Stakes are his obvious immediate options.

The Juddmonte International has been shaping up as a weak Group 1 for quite a while now whereas the Irish Champion Stakes is usually a hot contest. So I know where I'd be going with Rip Van Winkle next. In fact I can see him winning the York race easily enough to enable him to run in both contests.

CRITICAL MOMENT HAS MAJOR SHOT IN CELEBRATION MILE

I had a dreadful time at Goodwood. So when Desert Myth surged towards my pick CRITICAL MOMENT (40) and went 1.01 in running on Betfair in the final furlong I got ready to be depressed all over again. But when the Stoute colt got to Critical Moment he produced a surge of his own to hold him at bay, producing a second run that is invariably a sign of a high class horse.

Sure enough the time that Critical Moment clocked was the fastest of the day. It marks him out as a solid Group 2 horse.

Critical Moment is a pretty big, good-bodied, very mature colt that has the build of a miler. He's good looking and is a good mover, meaning he has an efficient, daisy-cutting stride which is best suited to slightly faster ground than he got at Goodwood.

On his debut Critical Moment moved well in sixth place. His jockey pulled his stick just after halfway but quickly put it down again. With a furlong and a half to go he pulled his whip again and gave Critical Moment one slight crack on the behind. Then he out it down again and only rode his mount out hands and heels as he smoothly gained ground to finish a close third. It was the kind of gentle, educational introduction we see all too often in Europe with horses from big stables.

Next time out Critical Moment was put into the race from the start., He led pretty much all the way but his jockey was clearly trying to only do enough to ensure his mount would win and very nearly lost the race in a head bob.

Having won his maiden, Critical Moment was stepped up to Group company for the Horris Hill on his final start at two. Unfortunately the going was soft which Critical Moment's stride pattern and pedigree suggest is not suitable.

Critical Moment went well in the Horris Hill, closing pretty well to finish two and a half lengths fifth of fourteen after being rather tight for room. But he had a clear run when he needed it in the closing stages and simply couldn’t pick up well enough to take advantage. He was beaten strictly on merit. The only question is how much better he would have done on faster ground.

Racing manager Teddy Grimthorpe said before his seasonal debut in the Craven "He didn't get the run of the race in the Horris Hill and the ground was pretty soft. Hopefully this will be informative and will tell us what standard he is. I spoke to Barry Hills this (Tuesday) morning and he's happy with him and hoping for a decent run."

Earlier Grimthorpe said "Barry Hills has been very bullish of Critical Moment. He's got a bit to find but in the Horris Hill he didn't get the clearest of runs."

Critical Moment disputed the lead in the Craven but just couldn't go with the winner and was tiring in the closing stages. He slipped back to finish third by five lengths. The runner up was getting away from him in the final furlong and the fourth was catching him too. His previous runs had been over seven furlongs. It looked like he had trouble going the final furlong.

Trainer Barry Hills clearly had a big re-think about Critical Moment following the Craven. He entered him in the Chester Vase, the Lingfield Derby Trial and the King Edward VII Stakes. Obviously he believed the horse wanted to go a mile and a half.

As I've mentioned Critical Moment has the build of a miler. In addition Critical Moment's two siblings both won over a mile but lost a combined total of twelve tries over longer. It's therefore not surprising Critical Moment failed to last home in the Chester Vase or at Royal Ascot over ten furlongs. He bounced back to win a hot Conditions race last time though when cut back to a mile.

Barry Hills said after his win at Goodwood that he felt Critical Moment would be well suited by the course. I suspect he meant that a mile around the tight track would not tax his stamina as seemed to happen up the straight in the Craven. In any event he's clearly much better than Listed class and looks a very interesting proposition for the Celebration Mile over the same course and distance later this month.

Runner up DESERT MYTH (40) is a smart horse too. He came there traveling strongly and would almost certainly have won had the race been just a little bit further.

Desert Myth is a mature, quite muscular colt that looks built to produce a decent turn of foot. His stride pattern suggests fast ground will be best for him.

On his racecourse debut Desert Myth won what looked a pretty hot maiden at Newmarket's Spring meeting over ten furlongs in pretty good time.

It's significant that race was the fastest middle distance maiden run at the first Newbury and Newmarket meetings of the season. It earned the biggest speed rating from me and everyone else.

The middle distance maiden at the first Newbury and Newmarket meetings which earns the biggest Raceform speed rating is invariably a hot contest. Eight of the last twelve winners of the fastest race went on to finish first or second in a Group 1 or lost one by under a length.

Desert Myth won that race well. He was held up, closed readily when the long time wide margin leader folded up three furlongs out and was only ridden out vigorously with hands and heels to score after his jockey twice went for his stick but decided against using it after waving it once at his mount on either side. In fact he was cramped for room and probably forced to ride hands and heels. In any event Desert Myth came though strongly to score going away in a race where the first three quickly pulled six lengths clear of the other seven runners.

Desert Myth was moving strongly as they passed the line and looked a fresh horse pulling up and in the winner's enclosure. In fact he was so impressive he started 6-4 favourite for the Lingfield Derby Trial next time out.

Before that race his owner's racing manager Bruce Raymond said “We are confident he will get a mile and half - we actually think he needs a mile and a half." Seeing how he tired in the closing stages that day makes it look like Raymond was wrong. But it's worth bearing in mind that Desert Myth is rather straight through the shoulder which means he hits the ground a little too hard on long downhill sections of a course like they have at Lingfield.

In any event Desert Myth proved that he certainly stays at least ten furlongs when winning on his debut and running half a length second to the smart filly Myplacelater on his outing after the Derby Trial. I'll be very interested in his chances next time out, especially if he steps back up to ten furlongs or more.

REDWOOD CAN STAY LONGER

Given the length and prestige of the meeting and the fact that middle distance WFA races for males have the most prestige it's pretty amazing that Glorious Goodwood only stages one race of this type, the Glorious Stakes, won this year by REDWOOD (42).

Before this year four of the six runnings of this race since it was run on WFA terms had gone to a previous Group 1 winner or one that went on to win or run second in a big international Group 1. I'd be surprised if that didn't prove the case once more as the four horses that chased Redwood home had all previously reached the first three in Group 1's.

I've banged on in the past about my theory that Redwood is best in small fields due to his relatively small stature. This eight runner contest therefore must have suited him well.

Held up at the back and sensibly brought wide for his run, Redwood repeated what he'd done at Sandown a few runs back when veering towards the rail, hampering third placed Traffic Guard in the process. He picked up well and won going away.

What was really interesting about the run was that despite the early pace being slow enough for them to run the last three furlongs just a fifth of a second slower than in the big handicap over half a mile shorter Redwood had to be nudged along right from the start. The only other horse that had to be ridden early in the entire field was the stayer Manighar.

This being so I'd say Redwood will be suited by longer than the mile and a half of this race, just like his sole sibling to race Astral Flower. I'd like to see him entered for the Prix Royal Oak.

Trainer Barry Hills has the Bosphorus Cup and the Canadian International in mind for Redwood, both mile and a half events. They normally attract bigger fields than Redwood's record says he can handle.

The again it could be that all Redwood needs to avoid traffic is a long homestraight. His only sub par runs bar the Dante where he went wrong have been at Ascot and Chester where the homestraights are shorter than most top courses.

I like the idea of keeping Redwood in training next year that Barry Hills suggested. That will give him more chance of winning that vital Group 1 which will secure his stud value.

I honestly thought trainer Michael Jarvis was wrong to believe runner up SRI PUTRA (41) would stay a mile and a half. But the horse proved me wrong by running a big race to chase home Redwood. He's bigger and more versatile than the winner, so it's going to be easier to place him to win a Group 1. He's in all the big German Group 1's over a mile and a half and looks a good bet to win one of them, maybe even the Grosser Preis von Baden.

Third placed TRAFFIC GUARD (40) was moving really well halfway up the straight. He received a pretty hefty bump from the winner two furlongs out then picked up well while moving strongly all the way to the line.

Traffic Guard only ever seems to win between July and September, having blanked twenty one times outside of this period. However he's won or finished second by half a length or less in nine of his thirteen starts between July and September. He ran back to form right on cue on his latest start before this one, reaching the placings for the first time in 2010 when third in a Listed race at Sandown to the useful Stotsfold in early July.

The other thing worth noting about Traffic Guard is that he tends to run into traffic problems and has now done so in five of his last nine starts. All his wins and nine of his ten biggest racing Post ratings have been earned in fields of eight or less or on straight courses. He's lost all fifteen times he's run around a turn in fields bigger than eight.

Clearly Traffic Guard is a little tricky to place given his preference for a small field. But this run showed he's still as good as when he ran New Approach to half a length in the Irish Champion Stakes two years ago. If trainer Paul Cole can find a small field for him in the next two months he'll be worth betting.

Fourth home DUNCAN (38) lacked the pace to avoid getting squeezed out in the near sprint finish and ran a smidge below his best as a result.

Duncan is a big, muscular, good looking horse that's clearly a little top heavy for his own good. He's had training issues throughout his career. He only managed to make his first run in July as a three year old and failed to get to the races after early August last season.

In his first season Duncan's form fell apart after his first two starts over middle distances. In his second season he again failed to score after his first two tries. Now, after running big on his first two starts of 2010 he comes into this race as a warm favourite.

If two half length losses had gone his way Duncan would have won five of the six times he's run ten furlongs plus for the first two times each season and run second to the highly regarded Harbinger the other time. He's lost the other six times he's gone ten furlongs or more, running clunkers on three occasions.

This run was encouraging in that Duncan showed he was holding his form. But my speed ratings continue to say that Duncan is only a Group 3 horse. The fact that he's won just one of his nine tries in pattern company, and that a Listed race, suggests my rating is right. He can win a normal race at Group 3 level I'd say but not one this strong.

Luca Cumani, trainer of fifth placed MANIGHAR (38) won the first running of the Glorious Stakes as a WFA race with Alkaased who went on to set a world record for 2400 metres when winning the Japan Cup later that year. His second runner was Purple Moon who also won before going under by just half a length in the Melbourne Cup later that year. His other two runners lost but two out of four is not a bad record in such a hot race. So clearly Manighar was very well meant here.

Manighar was officially the second best three year old stayer on the planet last season. Cumani has acquired him in furtherance of his quest to win that elusive Melbourne Cup.

Manighar lost his first start for Cumani. But this is par for the course with him and new acquisitions. Even the mighty Falbrav only ran third for him first time.

Manighar actually ran a pretty good race that day, finishing second to Holberg over this course and distance when that one clocked what I rated a very good Group 2 class time. He improved from fourth to second in the last half furlong despite only being ridden with hands and heels.

Next time out Manighar was bet down to odds on for a Listed race over 2m and 78 yards at Sandown but tired in the closing stages to finish fifth.

Cumani says Manighar didn't stay the extended two miles on the very stiff course that day. He adds that this is no bad thing because the Melbourne Cup tends to go to a mile and a half horse with a turn of foot which is what he believes Manighar to be.

I would be very wary of going against Cumani's opinion because he really thinks long and hard about his horses and what races are best for them and does his research. If he says the horse didn't stay my bet is it didn't stay.

However Manighar was clearly finding the mile and a half a little quick for him here, especially with the near sprint finish. He had to be niggled along from the start and couldn't quicken up as well as the first three.

It now looks like a mile and a half is too short for Manighar and two miles a bit too far, at least in a strongly run race on a stiff track. It could well be Cumani is right that the way the Melbourne Cup is run makes it a very easy two miles and therefore suitable for Manighar.

Manighar has a rather high head carriage, indicative of horses that prefer to do everything on the bridle, and he wears a sheepskin noseband to correct this. But he seems to run his races out willingly enough - note especially that run against Wajir where he dueled with the winner gamely in a sustained effort.

This is a smart horse with a very good turn of foot for a stayer. His performance here in no way dents his Melbourne Cup chances.

HARBINGER NOWHERE NEAR AS GOOD AS THE HYPE

I've been watching the British racing scene for a long time now. But the extraordinary way horses get heralded as all time greats on the basis of a single questionable performance never ceases to amaze me. Despite having seen so many of the horses they've touted flounder when attempting to justify the hype British racing hacks seem prepared to don their rose tinted spectacles en masse at least once a season.

The latest horse to receive the accolades is HARBINGER (42) because he's just romped the King George by eleven lengths in course record time from two Derby winners.

According to Timeform Harbinger is now the equal of Ribot.

Let's take a look at that:

Ribot won all sixteen of his lifetime starts including two Arcs, a King George and three other events that were awarded Group 1 status when the pattern was introduced. He won at the top level in all three seasons that he raced.

Harbinger has just become the first older horse since the pattern was established to win the King George without previously placing in a Group 1. He has been beaten three times below that class in a career spanning just fifteen months.

In winning the King George Harbinger beat a runner up that didn't seem to get the distance after chasing the strong early pace, a third placed horse that's now seven and has won just one of its last 21 starts, a fourth placed horse that clearly ran below form, a fifth placed horse that pulled too hard due to seeing too much daylight and his own pacemaker who ran a suspiciously close sixth seeing he clearly doesn't stay the distance.

It's also worth noting that Harbinger's so-called course record was achieved around a new course that has only been used just 46 times for 12 furlong races when the word 'soft' hasn't appeared in the official going description. He ran a time just half a second faster than three year old handicappers achieved when establishing the previous course record.

How anyone can justify saying that single performance merits rating Harbinger alongside Ribot and ahead of such legendary stars as Mill Reef and Nijinsky is beyond me. I rate him just an average Group 1 winner that was made to look good due to his main rivals running below their best in a tiny field.

And let's not forget that Harbinger has a history of tying up. His form fell apart after July last year in the only two subsequent starts he managed. So the chances of him even making it to the Arc look pretty darned slim. The idea of him being as short as even money for the race is just plain daft.

Given the press coverage and that enormous Timeform rating it's going to take a lot of courage on the part of Harbinger's owners to run him again. It will surely be awfully tempting to exploit the situation and retire him right now rather than risk denting his currently huge stud value with another loss.

The one other Group 1 that I'd give Harbinger a serious chance in if he stands up to training and continues to run would be the Irish St Leger. I say that because he's already scored over 13.5 furlongs and won the King George by outstaying his rivals off a strong gallop. There aren't many decent horses around in the staying division and he'd have a good shot of beating most of them.

I suggested after he'd won the Irish Derby that the King George might come too soon for CAPE BLANCO (35) because he'd had such a hard race. But I'm not sure this is the reason he tired so badly in the closing stages at Ascot he rolled towards the fence then back again. My feeling is that he didn't quite last the distance thanks to pressing the strong pace on a track that's stiffer than the Curragh. This being so I'm not at all opposed to the idea of cutting him back in distance for the Juddmonte International. After all he won the Dante over the same course and distance.

There has to be a suspicion that the real reason Cape Blanco and Workforce became the first Derby winners to contest the King George since 2003 is that their owners were scared of tackling this year's fearsomely strong crop of French middle distance three year olds in the Grand Prix de Paris - a race that is nowadays the normal target for such horses.

I've been banging on all season about the French three year olds being a much stronger group than the British and Irish ones, and this race seemed to add yet more weight to that theory.

It's getting ever harder to sustain the belief that third placed YOUMZAIN (33) is going to win again at the top level. The old boy hasn't won in over two years and has taken just one of his last 21 starts. His two narrowest margin losses in recent years have both been in slow run races. Maybe he now needs that sort of race to have a decent shot.

DARYAKANA (32) most disappointing in running a distant fourth. She simply chugged on at the end, picking up slowly.

It could well be that Daryakana is a horse that needs the competition of a big field to get her interested. After all she's only won a weak fillies' Group 2 from four starts in fields of seven or less but has won four out of four in bigger fields - including that spectacular last to first rush in the Hong Kong Vase. Being good in big fields is no bad thing as most of the world's really valuable races feature stacks of runners.

WORKFORCE (27) ran a dreadful race and it's possible that he too needs a bigger field seeing that he was pulling in the early stages. It could be he needs the cover of a big field to prevent this happening. Even so I'm still dubious about his future prospects. His Derby win is the only one of his four starts where he's seemed to have shown top class form. And the Derby often produces odds results due to the fact that so many horses fail to handle the course.

It's worth bearing in mind that eight of the sixteen Derby winner immediately before Workforce never won another Group race. Chances are he's going to be another Sir Percy, High Rise or Oath and prove to be a shade below true Group 1 class.

I can see the arguement the connections of Workforce put forward that maybe he disliked the firm ground at Ascot. It does seem to get really firm on occasions at the course now that the new drainage system is in place and it's true Workforce shows knee action and hits the ground pretty hard. However he did win the Derby on ground fast enough to ensure he broke the course record. Yes rail movements were probably partly responsible for that but the ground must still have been plenty fast.

TOOLAIN CAN DO BETTER

On my ratings TOOLAIN (21) should have romped home in a seven furlong Listed race at Ascot. He was on his way to winning or running second while earning a rating of 36 or 37 from me when unseating his rider in a red hot Sandown maiden won by Ecliptic who I rate Group 1 class.

However Toolain struggled to pull less than a length clear in the closing stages, showing such a lack of acceleration that I'm now pretty sure Ecliptic would have been able to hold him off if he hadn't unseated at Sandown.

Toolain did run a little green once more, being sucked towards the running rail in the closing stages as he and the second got into the clear after racing down the centre. But I don't think that was what caused him to run below the form he showed at Sandown. It seems to me he's wanting a greater test of stamina and it was the slower early pace that was the problem. This made the race more a test of speed than stamina.

Toolain is a great big, very mature, heavy-topped sort that's reminiscent of Monitor Closely and Coordinate Cut. Like them he has the build of a mile and a half horse. And, in my experience, being built like he and they are tends to limit a horse's ability to Group 2 or lower class. Heavy topped sorts lack the push-button acceleration that wins Group 1 races.

Toolain's full sister has been tried over a mile and three quarters and two miles, admittedly without much success. My thinking is that despite his pedigree pointing towards seven furlongs or a mile being his right trip he'll actually do best over middle distances. It could be he'd prefer softer ground as well seeing how big he is. In any event I'd be pretty sure