GOLD MEDALLIST AND SECRET PLOY ARE TOP NOVICES

So far this season Marcel (38) has set the benchmark for novice hurdlers. And he earned a big speed figure from me for a fourth time to win a Grade 2 contest at Windsor. But it seems that as the new year approaches, as is usually the case, the better novice hurdlers are finally coming out of the woodwork. This being so I'd be betting against Marcel from now on.

The first obviously top class novice to emerge is GOLD MEDALLIST (41) who clocked a sensational time to win at Exeter on his first NH start.

I won't be rushing off to bet Gold Medallist ante-post for the Sun Alliance Hurdle just yet though. I first want to see if he can still handle firm ground as he did in the first half of his flat racing career. The going at Exeter was heavy judged by the race times. And I note with interest that Gold Medallist has now won the last two times he's raced on going that I rated yielding or softer but lost the last eight times he's run on good or faster ground.

I doubt that you'll get rich following Gold Medallist in his intended couple of runs on his way to Cheltenham. Still, he might be 5-2 or so if he runs in his next logical target, the Grade 2 Leamington Novices Hurdle at Warwick in January. He'd represent real value at those odds with some cut in the ground.

Runner-up SECRET PLOY (40) has no problem running on fast ground. In addition, unlike the winner, he is an inexperienced horse that has frequently been described as 'green' and 'a baby' by his trainer in interviews.

Secret Ploy has a tall reputation and lived up to it here. If I were had to pick the Sun Alliance winner right now he'd have to be my choice as he is proven on the fast ground Cheltenham invariably provides in March and has any amount of improvement in him. In the meantime I wouldn't want to oppose him.

Despite the fast time from Gold Medallist, good novice hurdlers are still a bit thin on the ground, so LUSTRAL DU SEUIL (36) may well be capable of winning in Graded company following his success in a pretty warm Fokestone contest in decent time. No doubt many smarter novice hurdlers will appear soon, but in the meantime, if he's brought back quick enough, Lustral Du Seuil is going to be tough to beat.

NATION STATE (34) had some decent form in France and translated it readily to hurdles on his first start over timber at Plumpton. This run was only a couple of points off the best juvenile hurdlers we've seen so far, so I can see Nation State winning one of the better contests restricted to his age groups this term.

Last week Monkerhostin earned the biggest speed rating I've awarded a horse all season. This week it was the turn of his half brother, ERIC'S CHARM (36) to run fast.

Eric's Charm achieved the feat when winning a hot little novice chase at Folkestone from the useful Hirvine.

Oliver Sherwood says that Eric's Charm is best going right-handed, and that seems correct. The horse has lost all five trims he's gone left-handed but won six times out of seven going right-handed. His sole loss came when he was probably brought back to the races too soon (I strongly suspect he's best fresh).

Last time out Eric's Charm ran in what I rate as the fastest novice chase of the season. He was still there when tipping up three out - and the fall is totally excusable as he was attempting to become the first horse in over six and a half years to win on its chasing debut over the very stiff jumps at Lingfield (the winner, Best Mate's brother Cornish Rebel, actually achieved that feat, and he is already a Grade 1 winner and a serious horse).

Sherwood is apparently unhappy that he will now be forced to step Eric's Charm up in class under the latest in a seemingly never-ending stream of controversial race-planning ideas from the BHB. He told the Racing Post that he'd prefer to give Eric's Charm another confidence boosting run around one fo the 'smaller courses' seeing how heavily he fell at Lingfield. In reality the statistics show that Kempton, Lingfield and Wincanton are the only southern courses these days that claim a high percentage of fallers. So if he can avoid those three tracks with Eric's Charm he ought to be able to get the required confidence boosting run into the horse with another win next time.

LOCKSMITH (36) won a decent novice chase at Plumton, equaling his best speed rating over hurdles. My ratings suggest he is only borderline pattern class so I hope he's kept out of Graded contests. If he is he'll be tough to beat.

DUNGARVAN'S CHOICE (36) also clocked a good time to win a novice chase, this time at Uttoxeter. He didn't jump well in novice chases last season, but trainer Nicky Henderson says he's schooled a lot better this term. He certainly out jumped his rivals here and looks a useful prospect. The proviso is that Henderson says "soft ground is important to him", which is certainly borne out by his record.

SEE YOU SOMETIME (37) won a Grade 2 novice chase at Windsor in respectable time. He has now won the last five times he's run on tight or figure of eight courses and completed the course. The stated idea of going for the Feltham Novice's Chase or the Racing Post at Kempton and avoiding the Sun Alliance seems like a smart plan. If he's not quite good enough for those races there's always Aintree.

MY WILL (37) ran his best ever race to go under by just half a length. He may well have won had he not made a mistake at the last. It's beginning to look like he is at his best on dead flat tracks. He's lost the three times he's run on courses with uphill finishes but would probably have won six of his seven starts on flat tracks but for a couple of jumping errors. He too looks a good prospect for Aintree rather than Cheltenham.

I carried out some research a while ago on chasers that returned to hurdles. The main finding was that most horses take two runs back over the smaller obstacles before they adapt back to jumping them efficiently. In their first two starts back over hurdles they tend to 'balloon' the jumps. TANTERARI (37) is a good example of this. He didn't do well over fences and, as per the research, did badly on his first two runs back over hurdles. He's been unbeaten over the smaller jumps since though and extended his winning run to three with a comfortable success at Bangor. He is still going to be over 20 pounds 'well in' on official ratings after he's re-assessed and is actually good enough to take a Listed contest on my ratings.

BRAMLYN BROOK (37) only lost narrowly to Tantieri and looks a good thing to take a similar race soon.

CLAN ROYAL (35) was having his first run over hurdles in three years and did tremendously well to run fourth on his seasonal debut. Normally horses whose big target is the Grand National are not worth following until after the weights for the big race come out. Even so, seeing how good this run was and how smart Clan Royal is over fences, I can see him winning over fences next time.

KANDJAR D'ALLIER (37) showed some very smart form over fences in France, earning Grade 3 class speed ratings from me. When he was transferred to Milton Harris in Britain however things went wrong. He failed to show anything like his French form. It turns out that the reason was nerves.

Switched to Alan King' stable for this season, Kandjar D'Allier bounced back with a very easy win first time and followed up with a harder fought victory in a hot little class D handicap chase at Windsor. Alan King attributes the horse's turnaround to Nigel Toal, the horse's groom, who has managed to calm him down apparently. Kandjar D'Allier is still eligible for races well below his true class thanks to his loss of form last term. He'll be tough to beat next time if he continues to race below pattern class.

Runner-up LIBERTHINE (37) has now run two big races out of two over two and a half miles (she clearly failed to get three miles at Aintree). On this run she rates as one of the best NH mares in training. She'd be capable of winning a Listed or Grade 3 event against males and would be almost unbeatable against her own sex.

Baracouda (30) won a tactical battle to score his fourth win in the Long Walk Hurdle and remains very hard to beat in stayers' events. He showed here that he has the speed to win a slow run race too. Seeing that he usually starts odds on I can hardly recommend him as a horse to follow though. Similar comments apply to runner-up Crystal D'Ainay whose ability is very obvious. However, I am not so sure many people rate third-placed RULE SUPREME (30) as highly as they should.

Rule Supreme finished strongest of all and would surely have won if he hadn't met traffic and made a mistake four out. He didn't seem well suited by the track, but his record on galloping courses is exceptional. In fact against novice chasers or over hurdles his form on galloping tracks at three miles plus shows five wins in a row following one initial loss.

Whether Rule Supreme is ever going to learn to jump fences effectively at the speed experienced chasers go is still open to debate. But on a galloping track over hurdles I rather fancy his chances of winning the Stayers' Hurdle come March. I wouldn't bet him ante-post right now though. I'd wait until he's had his next planned outing over fences since his odds will surely drift upwards if he loses again over the bigger jumps as seems likely.

Finally, turning to the All Weather, we saw a terrific performance from DESERT LORD (39) who lowered the 15 year old track record for six furlongs at Lingfield to clock a Group 3 class time.

Desert Lord was almost certainly helped by the furious early pace to show his best form over six furlongs. His trainer, David Flood said afterwards "he wants further. He'll go to Dubai for races over seven furlongs and a mile."

It looks like Desert Lord had some sort of physical problem when he ran down the field in the Dewhurst stakes at two, seeing that he was off for nearly two years afterwards. He would have won all the other four times he's had a recent race but for an unlucky neck defeat at Chester one time. His dam produced only two other foals - Funfair and Carnival Dancer - both of whom were seriously good Group class horses at their best. It looks like she's made it three out of three with Desert Lord.

Runner-up CHATEAU NICOL (38) had narrowly beaten Buy On The Red last time out. That was some performance as I'd rated But ON The Red the fastest AW horse of the winter till Desert Lord came along. Chateau Nicol confirmed the form with Buy On The Red here. It may well be that he is actually best over this six furlongs rather than seven. Indeed if he hadn't bumped into a Group class opponent here and been badly bumped on another occasion he would almost certainly have won five times out of five over six furlongs on the AW.

RYDAL (37) was unable to go the kamikaze early pace set by Swedish raider Media Hora but stayed on strong to run third. He's a tough horse to read but I suspect in a normally run race on the AW he may well need seven furlongs. He certainly ought to win something soon.

BUY ON THE RED (36) was unlucky to come up against Group class rivals for the second time in a row. His big win three runs ago was over seven furlongs. If he's stepped back up to that trip I wouldn't want to oppose him. At six furlongs there are always a lot of useful horses around, and he's a bit slower over the shorter distance.

GOODENOUGH MOVER (36) ran close and must be one of the most consistent horses in training. He'd probably also benefit from the slightly weaker competition that tends to prevail over seven furlongs.

TREASURE CAY (36) was only beaten two lengths and earned his biggest ever speed rating. His other two highest ratings came over the stiff five furlongs at Carlisle and Sandown, so it looks like it was the sixth furlong that improved him here. He ought to be winning soon.

MEDIA HORA (32) ran very well considering that he set the fastest pace ever seen on a surface which eats tear away front runners alive. Media Hora ran awfully fast when winning on the AW at Jagersro last time out over the same distance. In fact, the ballpark speed ratings I make for Scandanavian races made him the fastest horse lining up here.

Media Hora has run appallingly every time he's run on grass. But he'd won six times out of nine on dirt or the AW before this run. The three losses were on his racecourse debut, on his second start off a lengthy break and when fifth in what looked to be a hot Listed race in Chile.

Media Hora has shown the speed to win over three furlongs and even one and a half furlongs at Jagersro. I rather suspect he doesn't last beyond five furlongs on a normal dirt surface (which would explain a couple of his losses). But on the lightning-fast Polytrack he'd probably get six furlongs if ridden with a little more restraint. Over five furlongs he'd be very tough to pass.

OUR VIC LOOKING GOOD FOR KING GEORGE

MONKERHOSTIN (44) earned the biggest speed rating I've awarded a horse this jumps season when taking the bonusprint.com Gold Cup at Cheltenham. My read of his form is that despite the fact that French-breds rarely stay three miles he does seem best at longer trips. In fact, but for a narrow defeat the first time he tried a longer distance, Monkerhostin would now have won all five times he's gone two miles five furlongs or more. He's lost the last six times he's run shorter distances.

Monkerhostin's three worst runs in recent years have come the three times he's run at Aintree. Quite why this is I don't know as he seems to handle other tight and left-handed courses. Outside of the Liverpool course I'd be wary of opposing him at 2m 5f or more from now on.

Whether or not OUR VIC (44) would have beaten Monkerhostin had he stood up is hard to say. He was a length and a half up when falling at the last and all I can do is rate him on the assumption that he would have finished within a length or two of the winner.

Our Vic now rates as the fastest horse entered for the King George on my ratings. What's more, his trainer has long said that he's best going right-handed. The thing is he took a heavy fall here and came out of the race battered and bruised. So it's going to be touch and go whether he makes the line up at Kempton. If he does he's obviously the one they all have to beat.

THISTHATANDTOTHER (41) improved slightly on his seasonal debut to take second but once more found the task of giving weight away to a smart rival beyond him. He also made jumping errors again. I'm now beginning to think that the reason for this is that he's being stretched by running over a trip a bit short for him. Over three miles I suspect he'd make fewer errors. Certainly there are fewer horses that can earn his sort of speed ratings at longer distances over fences than there are at this sort of distance.

EUROPA (41) earned his biggest ever speed rating to run third. Trainer Ferdy Murphy says "he's a very stuffy horse who is hard to get fit". This certainly seems borne out by the fact that he has failed to get to within 25 lengths of the winner all six times he's run in class A or B contests where it's been six weeks or more since his last completed start. Now that he's fully fit I'd bet on Europa taking something decent soon. Coma January he'll certainly be hard to beat in the Mansion House chase run at Doncaster, which Murphy says is his favourite track.

ARMATURK (40) continued his revival to run a big race in fourth. The speed rating he earned over two miles last time was a couple of points better, so I guess Paul Nicholls is right to tag him as essentially a two miler. I don't think most people understand just how good a two miler he is either (my ratings say he is right there with the best of them). So I'd say Armaturk is definitely a horse to follow.

TIKRAM (40) is another horse to take out of the race. He ran close despite racing on ground slightly slower than he likes. On genuinely good or faster ground I'd think twice about betting any horse to beat Tikram over two and a half miles.

IMPEK (37) was hampered and therefore did well to run sixth, especially seeing that he was going left-handed. All his six wins have been on right-handed tracks. If he runs on a right-handed track soon I'll be interested in his chances, especially in a smaller field since I suspect he's best when he's not so crowded as he was here.

BACK IN FRONT (43) lived up to his name when taking the Bula Hurdle. He's obviously a brilliant hurdler, and everyone knows he's best off a strong pace, which he got here courtesy of Rooster Booster. You won't get rich following him, but he looks tough to beat.

INGLIS DREVER (41) again ran a big race to finish second. It may well be that he's slightly better over two miles. More likely he is simply improving with experience. He's certainly one of the top hurdlers and will be hard to beat next time out.

WESTENDER (41) stayed on again to take third. Trainer Martin Pipe suggested that he might be stepped back up to two and a half miles after his last start. I imagine he'll make the switch now. If Westender gets the good ground he seems to need he looks very capable of scoring his first win in three years.

ROOSTER BOOSTER (41) improved on his seasonal debut to take fourth. The improvement no doubt partly came from the fact that his jockey ensured he got the strong pace he needs by setting a fast gallop. He was also a bit fitter no doubt. I'd be wary of concluding that Rooster Booster is not fast enough to win another Champion Hurdle. He once again showed that he's as fast as ever here. In a big field, ridden from behind off a strong pace I can still see him winning again come March.

CONTROL MAN (37) won a decent Cheltenham novice chase in good time. The key to him seems to be the ground. If it is even slightly slower than good as it was here he seems fine. But on genuinely good or faster ground he's run terribly two times out of two to date. He's won seven of his other nine outings, with the two losses being to Grade 1 hurdlers.

Control Man almost certainly won't get his ground in the Sun Alliance Chase. But he looks an interesting candidate for the Feltham Novices' Chase at Kempton.

EL VAQUERO (37) was going really well when he tipped up four out, and I've rated him as if he'd have at least dead-heated with Control Man. He dislikes soft ground according to his trainer, so his Cheltenham prospects are obviously brighter. Meanwhile any time he gets his ground he'll be a threat in novice company over fences.

The general consensus seems to be that QUICK (41) was allowed to steal Cheltenham's Pertemps hurdle qualifier from the front. But the clock tells a very different story. He ran away with the race because he ran a serious Grade 2 class time. It now looks likely that he only lost form in the latter half of last season because he'd simply gone stale through over-racing. He'd won five of his first six hurdles starts beforehand. Now, following a five month break, he's picking up where he left off. Hopefully he'll be given a lighter campaign this term because on this run I'd like to see him steered towards the Stayers' Hurdle back at Cheltenham in March. That's how good this run was, and it marks him out as a very tough horse to beat next time, whatever the handicapper does and whatever the opposition he faces.

On the same card THEREALBANDIT (36) bounced back to form to take a decent handicap chase.

If you look at Therealbandit's form it's clear that with a bit of racing luck, and if you include his point to point win, he might well have won the first ten times he raced over two and three quarter miles or more.

After his tremendous run he was entered in the Gold Cup. But, as I've often mentioned, it's extremely rare for a novice to run well the first time it tackles Graded class rivals over fences. It is usually surprised at the greater speed which it is asked to jump the fences to stay on terms. In Therealbandit's case this is particularly true since he'd been unlucky in a way to have been so well placed. Basically he never came up against a rival that extended him for a long time. My speed ratings showed that despite his obvious ability he never ran that fast. The Gold Cup was the first fast run race he ran in.

I wouldn't read too much into the fact that Therealbandit ran badly on his seasonal debut over hurdles. He is by Torus, a proper old-fashioned chasing sire whose progeny virtually all do better over the bigger jumps. Therealbandit also got beat a long way when switching from fences to hurdles for his first start under rules last year (he was a point to pointer before).

Now that he's back on track I'd like to see Therealbandit stepped up gradually in class and given a shot at a Listed or conditions race next time rather than take on the big stars in a fast run chase. I'm sure he can run quicker than he's shown so far, but he needs to learn how to before he's thrown in the deep end again like he was last March. In this regard, talk of him running in the King George if his stablemate Our Vic fails to recover in time is rather worrying.

SILK TRADER (37) won an ordinary little handicap chase in much faster time than is normal for the class at Doncaster. It could well be that he's best in really small fields such as the one he met here since he's now won the last four times he's run in fields of seven or less following a vaguely recent run. Alternatively it may be that he's simply better over fences than hurdles. Whatever the answer he looks a horse to follow.

NO NEED FOR ALARM (37) was largely responsible for the fast time since she set a furious pace up front and kept on well to go under narrowly. She had won a whole string of hurdles and novice chases at two and a quarter miles or less when allowed to bowl along in front. But she then lost form when she was restrained in the early stages, asked to go longer trips or pitched in against some of the top two milers last season. Now that she's back to shorter trips and being allowed to tear off in front she's clearly as good as ever. What is interesting is that her official handicap mark has plummeted from 140 down to its current 107 which means she could easily be placed to win another string of races below her true class in the coming months.

HOT WELD (36) won a three mile novice hurdle at Newcastle in good time. He clearly stays very well, and it's probably significant that but for a couple of photo finish losses he would now have won all five times he's run on stiff tracks but run unplaced all three times he's run on easier courses. This being so I'd be inclined to favour him only when he runs at the UK's stiffest tracks, namely Carlisle, Cheltenham, Exeter, Hexham, Leicester, Newcastle, Sandown, Sedgefield and Towcester.

LORD OF ILLUSION (36) once again ran a good time to take a good novice chase at Newbury. This was the third time in recent starts he's earned a Listed class speed rating from me.

As I mentioned here before, it seems to me that what really affects Lord Of Illusion is stamina. I don't think he gets home over longer than three miles or on tracks with steep uphill finishes. Toss those sort of runs out and Lord Of Illusion would have won six of the last seven times he's run on normal tracks at three miles or less but for tipping up when looking the winner one time. The loss came when he ran second to First Ballot in what my speed ratings say was the joint fastest novice chase run so far this season. Seeing how Lord Of Illusion just keeps on winning in fast time while winning easing up as he did here, I'd be surprised if he's not capable of running a bit faster than he's shown so far. I would not be surprised at all if he turned out to be one of the top three mile novice chasers.

MOSCOW FLYER AN ALL TIME GREAT

MOSCOW FLYER (43) took his chasing record to sixteen wins from 16 completed starts when winning the Tingle Creek, earning the joint highest speed rating I've awarded so far this NH season. Quite how fast he could really run if pressed we may never know for jockey Barry Geraghty says that, like many horses, he doesn't like to be out on his own in front.

I've mentioned before that there are strong indications from Moscow Flyer's pedigree that he should stay three miles. However I could certainly understand it if his connections chose to keep him to shorter trips. He may have been conditioned to running them after so many years and have trouble adapting to longer. Also, one has to ask why they should bother. After all, Moscow Flyer has won eleven Grade 1 races by sticking to shorter trips. It's only the racing fan in me that wants to see him try something new. If I owned him I'm not sure I'd be prepared to take the risk of going longer.

Azertyuiop (42) earned his biggest ever speed rating to chase Moscow Flyer home. But I'm still not convinced he's such a superstar. According to my speed ratings, he has lost the four fastest chases he has run in (admittedly he tipped up in one of them) and won the seven slowest. It seems to me Azertyuiop looks great beating up on Grade 2 and Grade 3 rivals but when he tackles a seriously fast horse he gets beat.

You could accuse me of talking through my pocket here as I desperately wanted WELL CHIEF (42) to run second to Moscow Flyer for the straight forecast. He so nearly did it too, missing by just a short head.

This was the third time in a row that Well Chief has earned a speed rating of 42 from me. In my experience horses that run fast virtually every time tend to run to what I call the rest pattern. That is they are good for their first two starts off a lengthy break but then need at least five weeks between their completed starts to run well again. This is particularly true with two mile chasers. I note that seven of Well Cheif's eight lifetime wins have conformed to the rest pattern. So I'd like to see him given at least five weeks before his next run. If he is I'd not want to oppose him unless he takes on Moscow Flyer again.

Fourth placed CENKOS (30) is worth noting not for the time he ran but the way his poor performance confirmed a lifetime pattern in his form. Since his novice days Cenkos has now won just once in 17 tries in Graded company - and that was in the 2002 Tingle Creek when mishaps put his only two serious rivals (Moscow Flyer and Flagship Uberalles) out of the race at the fifth. Cenkos' trainer, Paul Nicholls has also noted the strong seasonal preference the horse seems to have, saying "he hates the winter weather" and "he never seems to come to himself in early spring". Indeed, if you look at the horse's form in the last four years you'll find that in ungraded two mile chases from the last week of April to the first week of December Cenkos has won six of his seven completed starts, with the loss being a second to the very smart Seebald. Outside of this period he's blanked in 14 tries. I'd bet on Cenkos running a series of awful races between now and late April. But I'm drooling over the prospect of betting him to win that big two mile race at Sandown's Betfred meeting at the end of the season.

Chives (40) ran a fast time to take the Tommy Whittle Chase at Haydock. However it was his second run of the season and that is probably significant. I say this because horses which tend to break blood vessels invariably need a break of at least five weeks in order to run well again after their first two starts of the season. Chives has run below form all five times he's not been kept fresh in this way, so I'd say his chances of winning the Welsh National are nothing like as good as the current odds suggest.

SIR REMBRANDT (38) ran a good race to finish second over what was clearly an inadequate distance on the ground. Jockey Andrew Thornton apparently told trainer Robert Alber afterwards that "it was hard work" and that "he takes three miles to warm up" These comments look spot on when you consider Sir Rembrandt's record. Indeed if you consider only hurdle races at three miles plus and chases at three and a quarter miles plus (or three miles on soft) Sir Rembrandt's record shows three wins in five completed starts and half length seconds in his two losses.

Sir Rembrandt earned a rating of 44 from me when narrowly losing the Cheltenham Gold Cup last term. It looks like he's as good as ever, and it's a pity there are so few conditions chases at three and a quarter miles plus for genuine stayers like him. Then again, it normally comes up soft for the Pillar Property Chase at Cheltenham which is his next target. So Sir Rembrandt should have at least one chance of scoring before the Festival.

PIZARRO (38) made the normal mistakes novices make when they tackle top experienced chasers for the first time. But he ended up running a good race to finish third. No doubt he'll come on for the run too, seeing it was his first in nine months. He's a triple Grade 1 winner who has won eight of his twelve completed starts, so there's every chance he'll prove capable of being competitive with the Gold Cup horses after this.

PATCHES (38) proved to be another example of Paul Nicholls' miracle breathing operation when winning a hot little Wincanton novice chase in fast time. He's now unbeaten in three starts since the operation and is capable of winning a Graded novice chase according to my ratings.

LACDOUDAL (37) ran another good race to finish second. At this time of year the big stables are wheeling out their future stars in novice chases and Lacdoudal has been most unlucky to bump up against three of them in his last four starts. The big guns will soon have more Graded novice events to shoot for and will have debuted most of their best first season chasers soon. So Lacdoudal ought to have no problem getting off the mark in the very near future.

It has been a similar story for third-placed KADOUNT (36) who'd chased home the highly promising Trabolgan on his previous start. He too shouldn't have any trouble winning over fences soon. Maybe it would be a good idea to go for a handicap so that he can avoid the smarter novices.

ROSS RIVER (38) won a novice chase at Herford in exceptionally fast time. Trainer Phillip Hobbs said in a recent interview that Ross River had tendon problems before he arrived in his stable last term and that he was never really happy with him. However he said he came back in great shape, hence the improved form. He also says the horse is best fresh, so, now that he's had a couple of runs I'd be wary of betting him unless he's given a break of at least five weeks between his completed starts. The jury is still out on whether Ross River handles fast ground. Looking at his pedigree and form, I suspect not. In any event he's certainly capable of winning one a Graded novice chase sometime this term.

COLONEL FRANK (39) won a hot little Intermediate Chase at Sandown in Grade 3 class time. Once again, he demonstrated what a safe jumper he is, and it was this rather than the ten pou8nd weight concession that probably gained the day for him over Calling Brave and Lord Sam who will, I suspect, prove better in the long run.

Colonel Frank is now due to be given a rest, partly to avoid the soft winter ground that his trainer says he doesn't like. As I've mentioned before, I see Colonel Frank as a Grand National prospect for 2006. Talk of him as a Gold Cup candidate is a bit optimistic according to my speed ratings. He'd need to improve a dozen lengths to have a chance in the big race and I doubt that's going to happen.

CALLING BRAVE (38) had an interrupted preparation and cannot have been fully fit. Yet he might well have won had he not blundered at the last. He rallied strongly and should improve for the run. I wouldn't want to say just how good Calling Brave is at this stage. But he earned a rating of 39 from me as a novice. Novice chasers tend to improve a point or three as they gain experience and improve their jumping, so it's possible Calling Brave will have a shot in the King George. After all, but for jumping errors he might well be unbeaten in his five chases to date. More probably, it will be a little while before Calling Brave is able to beat the very top chasers.

LORD SAM (38) is another who has had problems with his jumping and exhibited them once again here. He might well be unbeaten in all twelve starts if he'd jumped better. He's still only lost three times.

One interesting thing about Lord Sam is that although he's jumped sloppily several times he has won every time he's been asked to negotiate an exceptionally stiff course. For example, Lingfield and Kempton are two of the three toughest chase courses to jump in the south of England judged by the percentage of fallers they've claimed over the last decade - and Lord Sam beat horses that went on to win at the Cheltenham Festival both times he raced there. In Ireland Punchestown claims an even higher percentage of fallers, yet he beat the smart Hi Cloy to take a Grade 3 there last season. This being so it seems likely that the reason he has jumped poorly is that he doesn't have enough respect for the very soft fences now to be found at most British steeplechase courses. Therefore, until he shows more respect for softer jumps, I will be most interested in Lord Sam's chances when he races over the stiffer jumps to be found in Ireland or over one of the few UK tracks with tough fences, namely Aintree, Ayr, Doncaster, Kempton, Lingfield, Musselburgh or Wincanton. I note with interest that he's due to contest the King George at Kempton next time. If my theory about Lord Sam's jumping is right he ought to run a whole lot better there. He certainly looks the best King George prospect to take out of this race.

MURPHY'S CARDINAL (38) had his first race on anything but soft or heavy ground and suffered his first defeat in seven starts. I'd be inclined to forgive him this run and bet him to return to winning form on softer ground.

Ladalko (37) won the Grade 2 Winter Hill Novices Hurdle at Sandown, but I suspect it is the runner-up NO REFUGE (36) who will turn out to be the better hurdler. I say this because No Refuge has far less experience and showed it with some sloppy jumping.

No Refuge maintained Howard Johnson's amazing 50% strike rate with Graham Wylie's hurdling debutantes by winning first time over jumps at Aintree. But he jumped poorly that day too. Howard Johnson said at Sandown "We'll give him more practice and he'll come. We've only had him five weeks." I'd take him at his word because No Refuge is one of the fastest flat racers to be recruited to hurdling in recent years according to my speed ratings.

Corriolanus (37) won a strongly run class C handicap on Ligfield's Polytrack in good time. He's long been a consistent Listed/Group 3 class performer at middle distances but must be pretty much handicapped out of AW racing by now, which probably explains why his next target is a race at Nad Al Sheba in January. I don't know whether he'd be quite good enough there, so I can't really recommend following him.

I have no such reservations about the runner-up CALEDONIAN (37) who so nearly won after a slow start. Only a three year old, Caledonias has had just a handful of starts and could be anything. Certainly he ought to be good enough to take a similar race if he's kept going on the AW next time.