VOY POR USETEDES IS TOP CLASS

I've been whittering on about the fast times recorded by VOY POR USTEDES (41) ever since last season. But I though I'd found a good reason to go against him at short odds last week at Plumpton. The reason was that Voy Por Ustedes was struggling at one point on his previous outing. It was only when his stamina kicked in late that he managed to put his rivals away. Against better opposition I thought he might be vulnerable over the minimum distance.

As it turns out I was wrong. Voy Por Ustedes not only won again, he also ran faster than ever and established himself as one of the top novice chasers. However if you look at the pedigree of Voy Por Ustedes you'll find more evidence that suggests he's still going to be better over longer trips in chases: Voy Por Ustedes dam won over 1m 7f on the flat and her two previous foals that tried jumping were best over trips longer than two and a half miles. His sire Villez does get quite a few two mile hurdlers but almost all his best chasers have been best at two and a half miles plus.

Just how good Voy Por Ustedes might turn out to be over two and a half miles I don't know. But I can say he's now run fast enough to win a grade 1 novice chase at two miles.

Runner-up MY WORLD (39) ran a huge race on her chasing debut to get within five lengths of Voy Por Ustedes. This was a major improvement on her hurdles form, but it's perhaps not that surprising. Raceform described her as a big, strong filly and note that her half brother New team is also a chasing sort. Clearly she has the size for the bigger jumps. She certainly jumped very well here and ran exceptionally fast. I would not want to oppose her next time out and see her winning something big this term.

VILLON IS ONE OF THE TOP NOVICE CHASERS

VILLON (39) ran a seriously good pattern class time to beat smart rivals in a two mile novice chase at Uttoxeter.

I had thought Villon wouldn't make a successful transition to the bigger jumps. After all, of the top 28 highest rated hurdlers produced by his sire just two won over fences. His dam's record was even worse. Outside of Villon she'd produced eight foals and none of them won over fences. In fact not one of the four that tried chasing ever got to within 25 lengths of the winner in a steeplechase.

Villon was apparently not a natural over fences at home. But rigorous schooling showed that sometimes nurture can beat nature. And in this case it has made Villon one of the top novice chasers around. The only time he's lost so far in six starts was on unsuitably fast ground at Cheltenham.

I will remain a little skeptical about Villon's ability to cope with really stiff fences such as those at Doncaster, Aintree, Ayr or any of the top Irish tracks. But he proved me wrong here so I'll be shy of opposing him again seeing how fast he ran.

Runner-up ROMAN ARK (36) ran a big race. This was his first ever defeat in five starts on heavy ground. If he can be found similar swamp-like conditions soon he ought to score. His trainer has suggested before that he might handle faster ground over a longer trip and that sounds right.

VALLEY RIDE IS WORTH FOLLOWING

VALLEY RIDE (36) won a decent handicap hurdle in fast time at Bangor and now looks rather interesting. He ran second on his racecourse debut but would have won five of his six starts since had he not swerved and unseated his rider when leading on the run in at Stratford.

The clock indicates that Valley Ride is better than this sort of class and is worth following.

TURCKERS TAVERN (35) ran a big race for a chaser reverting to hurdles off a nine month break to finish a close third. No doubt he'll try to emulate last year's win in the Rowland Meyrick Chase at Wetherby over Christmas. And on this evidence he might well do it.

DON'T UNDER-ESTIMATE EUROTREK

EUROTREK (39) ran away with a good handicap Chase at Newbury in very fast time. Second to the subsequent Grade 1 winner Classified in a Grade 2 novice hurdle, he looked like being equally smart over fences when winning his first start over the bigger jumps last year. Unfortunately he bled next time and was off for a year. Presumably he needed his comeback race, and he showed he's as good as ever here.

The problem with horses that bleed is that they tend to need rests between their runs. They're good for their two starts of the season but they invariably require a break of at least five weeks between their completed runs thereafter for their lungs to recover. This being so. I'd be inclined to oppose Eurotrek if he returns in mid January or earlier. If he's rested I see him winning a big handicap chase. He certainly ran fast enough to do that here.

THE LISTENER DOES IT AGAIN - BUT DON'T FORGET TURTHEN

I noted recently that THE LISTENER (38) is one of the fastest novice chasers. And sure enough he went and won a Grade 2 Novice Chase at Windsor in very good time. However The Listener now has a big reputation and I don't think you're going to get rich following him.

As I see it, the horse to take out of the race is fourth-packed TURTHEN (26) who ran well below his French form on his UK debut.

I'm always happy to forgive a horse its first start over unfamiliar obstacles. So I look forward to Turthen replicating his smart French form soon.

Turthen improved massively when switched to fences in France - running three big races from three tries, and earning speed ratings of 37 and 39, which puts him bang there with the top novice chasers.

On his chasing debut Turthen ran a close second to the high class Symphinique who is very hard to beat when fresh as he was there. Next time out he romped home by six lengths and on his final French start he finished a very close staying on third in a hot Grade 3. In that latter contest (where Turthen lost by less than a length) the winner was Hunorisk, one of the best young chasers in France and the second was Polivalente who went on to take two of his next three starts, including a Grade 1 chase.

Turthen's improvement over fences is not surprising when you look at his pedigree. His dam has basically produced nothing but steeplechasers, several of which were high class.

So far two horses out of Turthen's dam have run outside of France. They were Janidou who won his first two chase starts in Ireland and Majadou who won his first four outings over fences in Britain. Turthen lost his first UK chase start here, but I'd bet on him continuing the family tradition next time out.

ANOTHER NATIVE IS VERY WELL HANDICAPPED

ANOTHER NATIVE (36) won a strongly run novices' handicap chase at Haydock in unusually fast time. His official handicap mark massively understates his ability. So I suspect he'll be kept to handicap company in the near future. Even if he isn't I'd be wary of opposing him against anything but the top novice chasers.

The other horse to take out of the race I'd say is MADISON DU BERLAIS who has run as fast as the winner in France according to my ratings. Madison Du Berlais was still bang there and going pretty well judged by his shortening price in running on Betfair.

Madison du Berlais was a very shrewd claim by Martin Pipe. The horse finished a close second to Nostra on his final French outing in what I rate the fastest jumps claiming race run in France during the last six months. I awarded Notra a Listed class speed rating for the win - hardly surprising seeing that Nostra has already won in Listed company and has taken seven of his last fifteen completed starts.

LES ARCS IS VERY SMART IN A SMALL FIELD

One of the most common patterns you'll see in the form of racehorses is something I call 'the small field syndrome'. Horses that run to this pattern normally only run to their best in fields of eleven or less on the flat or over hurdles.

LES ARCS (39) is a prime example of a small field horse. If he hadn't run green and met traffic a few times he might well have won at least nine of the eleven times he's run in fields of 11 or less around a turn.

Last week at Lingfield Les Arcs met a small field for the first time since June and duly won in very fast time. He is now rather high in the handicap. But there are more races for the better AW horses these days so I'd be surprised if Les Arcs has finished winning for the winter.

FASYLITATOR WAY BETTER THAN CLASS 5

I mentioned ACTUALITY (36) here after he'd won in very fast time on his AW debut. I fully expected him to follow up in what looked like an ordinary class 5 handicap at Lingfield last week but he ran a bit green and went under in a photo to FASYLITATOR (36).

The general consensus seems to be that if Actuality hadn't run wide and put his head to one side under pressure he would have won. But this shouldn't detract from the merit of Fasylitator's effort. He and Actuality pulled well clear of the rest of the field and clocked an exceptionally fast time for the class.

I confess I can't find any obvious pattern to Fasylitator's form. But he has now won five of the eight times he's run beyond sprint trips on the AW and my speed ratings say he's improving. I'd bet on both him and Actuality adding to their wins soon.

MILLENAIRE LOOKS WORTH FOLLOWING

MILLENAIRE (38) is only a novice over fences. But he won a decent handicap chase against experienced rivals in unusually fast time at Leicester. Novices usually run about three lengths a mile slower than experienced chasers. So this was a big run from Millenaire who has now won both his completed starts over fences. He's still well handicapped so I imagine his connections will stick to this sort of race rather than switch back to novice chases which tend to be rather hot at this time of year, as many of the big stables introduce their future chasing stars. Either way I wouldn't want to be opposing Milleaniare next time out.

Runner-up YOU'RE SPECIAL (38) ran Millenaire to a head and pulled well clear of the third. He's already come out and jumped up two whole grades in class to win at Doncaster in equally fast time. My ratings suggest he can win again.

MOTORWAY ONE OF THE TOP NOVICE HURDLERS

MOTORWAY (39) clocked a seriously fast time when beating experienced rivals in a good handicap hurdle at Cheltenham. The run was his third victory in a row and marks him out as one of the fastest novice hurdlers.

The going was about a second per mile slow by my estimates (or good to soft like the official going report said). So I need convincing that Motorway needs genuinely fast ground to produce his best as his connections seem to think. In any event I expect to see him back at Cheltenham in March whether it's for the County Hurdle or the Supreme Novices. Meanwhile Motorway shouldn't have much trouble in winning again.

... AND SO IS NOLAND

NOLAND (38) won what was a Grade 3 novice hurdle in all but name at Cheltenham, blasting clear by five lengths from a strong field.

Noland has experienced sore shins in the past and seems to prefer a bit of cut in the ground. So far he's won both times he's raced on yielding or softer ground and lost both times he's encountered a faster surface. This would seem to rule him out of the Cheltenham festival where the going is invariably fast nowadays. But there are plenty of good novice hurdles that will be run on softer ground before then and I'd expect Noland to take more of them.

HARCHIBALD DOES THE JOB

HARCHIBALD (41) duly won the Bula Hurdle, displaying his terrific speed after getting into traffic trouble as he so often does. On the clock this was not his very best effort but it was certainly good enough to suggest he's the same hors that so nearly won the Champion Hurdle last year. I'm still inclined to think he's the kind of horse that does best in the Champion Hurdle Trials against small fields rather than in the big race itself against a bigger field. Nonetheless I find it hard to knock him. He almost always runs his race.

INTERSKY FALCON (40) chased Harchibald home after setting a strong pace. He ran as fast as he ever has according to my ratings and looks a likely candidate to win a similar race against a small field. After all, he would have won all six times he's run in fields of seven or less but for one photo finish loss.

SIR OJ IS GOOD, BUT WAS HE LUCKY?

Sir Oj (39) ran slightly slower than the average winner of a realy valuable contest like the Robin Cook Chase. So I'm inclined to believe that FONDMORT and THISTHATANDTOTHER would have got by him had they stood up. Both have run faster than the winner and both were going well when Fondmort tipped up and brought down Thisthatandtother with three to jump.

BIG HONG KONG RACES WERE SLOW RUN

The information that's given out on the Hong Kong Jockey Club's website at http://www.hkjc.com/english/index.asp is extensive. And it includes standard times for every distance and every class at Sha Tin and Happy Valley. Using these, and the sectional times and 'photo form' from the same site it's easy to see that the races run at the big Hong Kong race meeting last week were all slow run affairs. They basically went slow early then sprinted the last couple of furlongs.

Two horses that produced seriously fast finishes were the fillies OUIJA BOARD (28) and PRIDE (29). Ouija Board flew the last quarter mile of the Hong Kong Vase in 22.9 seconds while Pride blasted home in a mere 22.8.

In many of the biggest middle distance races run around the world these days a big finishing kick is the most important attribute a horse can have. Only in Britain and Germany are most of the top races run at a strong early pace any more. This being so, if Ouija Board and Pride are kept in training I'd bet on them continuing to do well in the top races.

DON'T OPPOSE NEPTUNES COLLONGES IN MUD

It's hard to convey just how big a reputation NEPTINE COLLONGES (41) had in France. He won all five of his completed starts and blasted the brilliant Balko by no less than 15 lengths on his final outing over there. Read the write ups he got after his wins in Paris Turf and you get the impression that there were many who expected him to develop into one of the best jumpers France has ever produced.

The speed ratings Neptunes Collonges earned in France were equally amazing. He twice earned Grade 1 class ratings from me.

Neptunes Collonges only ran over fences in France. But he showed that he could adapt to the smaller jumps when strolling home on his UK debut at Chepstow. Then came that shock defeat last time out at Cheltenham. In a race he should have won easily on all known form he only ran fourth. Now it looks almost certain that the fast ground was the cause of that sub-par run for he bounced right back to his best to win the Grade 2 Winter Novices' Hurdle at Sandown by a distance in exceptionally fast time.

It's a shame Neptunes Collonges doesn't seem to act on fast ground because that means he's set to lose again if he takes in the Sun Alliance Hurdle at Cheltenham on the fast ground the Festival normally provides.

We apparently won't be seeing Neptunes Collonges again until the Spring when I imagine his big target will be at Aintree rather than Cheltenham thanks to the prevailing ground. I'd fancy him to win the Aintree Hurdle against the top staying hurdlers if he got his ground. And he'd be a good thing to win the big novice event over two and a half miles.

Of course the time to look forward too with Neptunes Collonges is next season when he'll be back over fences and stepped up to three miles. He should be a major threat to the top chasers then, and for many years to come seeing that he's still only four.

THE LISTENER THE ONE TO BEAT IN THE FELTHAM

I can't recall ever giving a chasing debutante a bigger speed rating than I awarded THE LISTENER (39) for his nine length win at Exeter last week. He jumped noticeably well and beat a very nice field in exceptionally fast time.

The race for The Listener is surely the Grade 1 Feltham Novices' Chase at Kempton at Christmas. His pedigree and form suggest strongly that he's basically a mudlark so he's most unlikely to get his ground if he runs in the Sun Alliance Chase at Cheltenham. If he's going to take a Grade 1 chase this term it just has to be at Kempton. Should the going be favorable there I'd be wary of opposing him.

RACING DEMON GOING THE 'RIGHT' WAY

RACING DEMON (40) ran a seriously fast time for a first season chaser to take the Henry VIII Novice Chase at Sandown. But I wouldn't be rushing to take the short odds about him for the Arkle because I suspect he's best going right-handed.

Take a look at Racing Demon's form and you'll notice that seven of his eight starts to date have been on right-handed tracks. Only 13 of Britain's 43 jump tracks are right-handed so his largely right-handed schedule must surely have been by design. Add to this the fact that he 'tended to jump right' at Sandown according to the form book and Racing Demon's preference for tracks that turn right seems all but proven. Indeed the way he ran down the final flight when losing at Cheltenham last term the sole time he's gone right-handed now seems to have extra significance.

I'd be wary of opposing Racing Demon in novice company on right-handed tracks. But if it's an Arkle winner you're looking for I'd prefer the runner up HOO LA BALOO (38).

there's something very interesting about the speed ratings I've awarded Hoo La Baloo. Each of his last eleven runs has been faster than the ones that preceded it. I can't recall ever seeing this pattern before. He just keeps on running faster and faster.

Hoo La Balloo seems to have just one way of running: Flat out. He attacked the fences at Sandown with remarkable speed for a novice, jumping brilliantly. On faster ground I have to question whether Racing Demon would have got to him.

NOW I'M NOT SO SURE ABOUT KAUTO STAR

Kauto Star (38) clocked a slow time for a Grade 1 chase when winning the Tingle Creek. It could be that the early pace simply wasn't fast enough for him to produce his best. But the close proximity of Ashley Brook (37) in second has me worried. Ashley Brook has so far not earned a speed rating better than 38 from me. And that's not good enough to win a normal Grade 1 against experienced chasers.

Right now I'm inclined to oppose Kauto Star when he takes on the top two milers again. I want to see him run a really fast time before I believe he's worthy of being favorite for the Champion Chase.

LACDOUDAL BETTER AT THREE MILES

LACDOUDAL (39) is almost boringly consistent. He earned a pattern class rating from me for the eighth time in his last twelve starts when taking a good three mile conditions chase at Sandown. In doing so he ran slightly faster than he ever has before by my estimates.

I have a dictum that I follow: A horse is at its best at the outermost limits of its stamina. At trips short of its maximum a horse can risk getting outpaced at a crucial stage. At trips longer than it can truly stay it risks tiring badly if the pace is strong.

This run, and Lacdoudal's previous form suggest to me that he's better at three miles than over the shorter trips he was run over previously. His few sub-par efforts before had been mostly restricted to slow run races which probably didn't provide enough of a stamina test for him. Now this big run over three miles indicates he's bene wanting this sort of trip all along.

I hope Lacdoudal is not cut back to two and a half miles for the Robin Cook Memorial Handicap Chase at Cheltenham next time out. There are plenty of two and a half mile chasers around who are faster than him. But at three miles there aren't many chasers that can run as fast.

I'm beginning to wonder whether runner-up MY WILL (37) is at his best on tracks with stiff uphill finishes like Sandown. True he did win at Cheltenham once but that was in a race where all but one of his rivals failed to complete - and that one was continually hanoered by a loose horse. Outside of that win My Will's record on stiff tracks shows no wins in five tries. On easier courses he's won six times out of eleven.

CAPTAIN CORELLI PROBABLY NEEDS A FLAT TRACK

CAPTAIN CORELLI (38) ran a decent time to take the Tommy Whittle Chase at Haydock. And afterwards his assistant trainer and jockey probably pinned down the key to his form. His assistant trainer suggested he might well be better on flatter tracks. And his jockey said you could hear a slight whistle in his wind on occasion.

In my experience horses with breathing problems are invariably best on flat tracks like Haydock. On steeply undulating tracks such as Cheltenham they seem unable to cope with the widely varying demands on their breathing caused by going downhill then up.

This wasn't exactly a huge effort by Captain Corelli by my estimates. But it was good enough to suggest he has another big handicap chase in him on a flat track. I'd only bet him on an undulating track if he has a breathing operation. Horses which have been unable to win on undulating tracks often do so after a breathing operation. Armaturk is a good example of this.

CIMYLA LOWERS ANOTHER TRACK RECORD

CIMYLA (39) seems to be making a habit of breaking AW track records. Last time out he chopped nearly two seconds off the record for 8.5f at Wolverhampton. Now he's gone and lowered the course record for 10f on the Polytrack at Lingfield. In doing so he took his AW record to three wins from three starts and defeated a red hot field.

You don't need to be a rocket scientist to figure out that Cimyla is now the horse they'll all have to beat in the Winter Derby come March. Indeed I suspect he'll go off at odds on in his planned two prep races for that contest. The betting value from the race he won last week is surely going to come from those that followed Cimyla home.

Closest was runner-up ACTIVO (38) who was making his UK debut, having run some very good races in France and Germany. Activo was second in a Listed race at Baden-Baden and also in a hot conditions race at Chantilly to the subsequent Group 1 winner Lune D'Or.

Thanks to an anomaly in the handicap system, horses with the kind of official German rating that Activo has find themselves thrown in when their ratings are converted to the UK scale (for some reason there is a much wider spread in the German ratings scale which makes a nonsense of the linear conversions used by UK handicappers). But despite carrying about 15 pounds less than he should according to my estimates Activo still couldn't get by Cimyla - though admittedly he met a lot of traffic.

It would appear from Activo's form that he's best on lightning fast ground. So the Polytrack (which basically mimics firm turf) suits him ideally. If he can avoid Cimyla he ought to be able to exploit his lenient official rating and win several races before taking his place in the Winter Derby.

WILD SAVANNAH (38) ran a big race to finish a close third. It looks like he may be better over ten furlongs than twelve, and he too should find his way to the Winter Derby in March. Meanwhile he will surely win a race or too.

Fourth-placed BOOT 'N TOOT (38) has been tried in pattern company four times now, and this run shows why. Clearly she has plenty of ability and takes after her dam in preferring the AW. With more pattern races set to be run on the AW in 2006 I'd bet on Boot 'N Toot earning the black type she needs to boost her value as a future broodmare. Before then there are a couple of nice handicaps to be won with her.

Close fifth SRI DIAMOND (38) had won the three previous times he'd run on Lingfield's Polytrack beyond a sprint trip and had surged up the handicap as a result. He showed how smart he is by defeating Wild Savannah on his last outing and despite his high mark still looks set to win again.