SPORAZENE THE FASTEST TWO MILE CHASER - IN A SMALL FIELD

SPORAZENE (43) ran seriously fast to beat the Grade 1 winner Contraband on his seasonal debut. And he ran even faster to beat another Grade 1 winner in Mariah Rollins on his second start this term at Exeter. I now rate him the fastest two mile chaser in training on this run. The proviso is that trainer Paul Nicholls, and he should know, says that Sporazene needs a small field to produce this level of form.

Just how small a field Sporazene needs isn’t yet certain. His two big wins over fences have been in four runner races. But he did win an eight runner chase and also showed consistently smart form over hurdles in races with eight runners or less. My best bet therefore is that eight runners is the cut-off point after which he has a problem jumping fences due to the crowding at the jumps.

Sporazene‘s next outing is likely to be in the Game Spirit Chase, a race that has attracted a field of eight or less in the last nineteen runnings. So it looks likely that he will carry out another demolition job on the field there. After that his connections will no doubt start looking at the Champion Two Mile Chase which has attracted a field of eight or less ten times in the last eighteen runnings. Perhaps the smartest play would be to take the big odds currently available about him for the Champion Chase and then lay him back at a much shorter price on the betting exchanges if more than eight runners end up being declared.

SIR JIMMY SHAND HAS MAJOR CHANCE IN CHALLOW HURDLE

SIR JIMMY SHAND (39) equaled the best rating I've awarded a novice hurdler this season when running away with a good race at Newbury by eight lengths. He's now won four of his five starts and looks to have a major chance of winning the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle which is his next intended target.

I don't know why Sir Jimmy Shand ran so badly in his sole loss at Aintree. It could be he dislikes tight left-handed tracks or is best fresh. More likely he had some problem in that race which went unreported. One thing is for sure, with his pedigree and physique he is a tremendous chasing prospect.

BILLYVODDAN CAN WIN ANOTHER BIG CHASE

BILLYVODDAN (40) ran away with the valuable BGC Silver Cup at Ascot. But I wouldn’t go running away with the idea that he somehow magically improved because he wore blinkers for the first time. Results show that blinkers generally have a negative effect on performance, especially the first time they’re applied. It seems far more likely to me that his connection’s previous statements about the horse explain his form. They’ve said he dislikes soft ground and tight tracks. It also looks likely he prefers courses without pronounced undulations. Throw out his races on soft ground and on undulating or tight tracks and you’ll find that Billyvoddan’s remaining form at two and a half miles or more shows five wins out of six, with his sole loss being an unlucky head defeat in a Grade 3 after he hit the last hurdle.

In the long term I can see Billyvoddan developing into a serious Grand National horse. Right now I reckon he has another big handicap chase in him this season.

DICTUM IS SMART ON SOFT GROUND

DICTUM (36) won all four times he ran in Germany on going rated 4.9 or slower on the very accurate local scale. And he’s won two of the three times he’s run on soft or heavy ground in Britain. His latest success came in a Uttoxeter Novice Chase where he romped home by 15 lengths in pattern class time.

Dictum has had leg problems and this almost certainly explains why he can’t handle anything except soft or heavy going and dislikes undulating tracks. But given his conditions he’s still a useful horse, probably capable of running even faster than he did here. I see him winning something very decent this term on a flattish track on soft or heavy going.

CROZAN SHOULD BE WINNING SOON

CROZAN (38) ran a big race to go under narrowly to Tamarinbleau (38) at Ascot. And I think he’s a better prospect for the immediate future than the winner. I say this because Tamarinbleau is best fresh and has yet to run to his best after his third run of the season. Crozan on the other hand is clearly a very useful horse at around two and a half miles. He would have won the last three times he’s run this sort of distance but for going under in photos twice to useful performers.

TAGULA BLUE NOT THAT FAST

One interesting thing about making international speed ratings is that it gives you early warning of weak and strong sub-populations of runners in particular countries. Last flat season for example my speed ratings made it clear from early on that there was an extraordinarily strong population of three year old middle-distance colts in France. This jumps season it's equally clear that there are a remarkably high number of very smart novice chasers in Britain and not nearly as many in Ireland.

Now it is becoming apparent that almost all the strength in the novice hurdle division this term lies in Ireland. The population of novice hurdlers in Britain, is, with a few exceptions, very weak. We saw more evidence of this last week when Tagula Blue (36) barely clocked a Listed class time to win the Grade 2 Kennel Gate Novice Hurdle from Moon Over Miami (36), a horse that had himself run slow when winning another Grade 2 at Cheltenham.

Tagula Blue lost in selling and claiming company on the fact. And my speed ratings say he hasn't made the dramatic improvement over hurdles that is widely supposed. He's simply lucked out by hitting an unusually weak crop of novices.

DON'T FORGET BAHAR SHUMAAL

SWEET INDULGENCE (37) and MILVILLE (37) fought out the finish of a hot 12 furlong handicap on the AW at Wolverhampton. No doubt they'll both be winning more good races this Winter. But I'm convinced that BAHAR SHUMAAL (23) is the horse to take out of the race even though he got beat over 20 lengths.

Bahar Shumaal earned the biggest speed rating I've given a horse on the AW in years when breaking the 1m 1f 103y track record at Wolverhampton four runs back. He then refused to settle and basically beat himself in two more slowly run races at Lingfield. I figured that the return to the ultra tight Wolverhampton circuit would curb this tendency and he'd bounce back to form. Unfortunately his jockey lost an iron early on and was only a passenger thereafter as Bahaar Shumaal followed his natural inclination and tore off like a bat out of hell before tiring.

If he were mine I'd be shipping Bahar Shumaal to America on the next flight. Given his tendency to pull hard, he's always going to have a big problem coping with the slow pace that UK Polytrack races are run at. But in America, if he proved that he could act on dirt he could mop up the big races on the New York circuit where they're still likely to race on the traditional surface for the foreseeable future due to the recent bankruptcy of the New York racing Association. Dirt races are invariably fast run affairs. If he proved unable to make the transition to dirt Bahar Shumaal could be switched to America's other two big racing circuits of California or Kentucky where all but one of the major tracks are now Polytrack or something very similar. Either way he would have many more opportunities than he currently has in Britain.

The one big prize Bahar Shumaal can win in Britain is the Winter Derby. If the pace is strong enough to enable him to settle in that event I'd be surprised if he were beaten. It could also be that the usual big field the Winter Derby attracts would provide enough cover for Bahar Shumaal to settle. After all he's now won two times out of three in fields of eleven or more at ten furlongs or less. This being so I now eagerly await the chance to bet him in another big field.

DOES EXOTIC DANCER NEED A BIG FIELD?

EXOTIC DANCER (41) ran a near Grade 1 time to take the Boylesports.com Gold Cup. He’s obviously a quirky horse, and my current theory is that he needs a big field to run his best. He has won the last four times he’s completed the course in fields of ten or more at less than three miles but lost all but one of his nine starts in smaller fields.

Exotic Dancer didn’t stay the three miles in the Stayer’s Hurdle. Perhaps he’ll do better around the easier course at Kempton. But I rather suspect that Kauto Star may end up scaring the opposition away in that race and cause a small field which may do more to lessen Exotic Dancer’s chances than the increased distance. Indeed, it may well be that Exotic Dancer’s best hope of another big win will come in a valuable handicap like this one as Conditions races tend to attract smaller fields.

KNOWHERE (40) ran a huge race for a novice to finish second and looks a more likely winner at Kempton on Boxing Day if he takes up his engagement in the Feltham Novice’s Chase. The big question there though will be distance as neither he or any of his siblings have shown they stay three miles so far. For this reason, and the fact that there are so many smart novice chasers around right now, I’d be inclined to oppose Knowhere at Kempton and bet on him to score a big win later on at two and a half miles.

TARANIS (39) might well have won seven in a row prior to running third here but for tipping up a couple of times. He’s surely going to win a big handicap chase some time this season.

FLIGHT LEADER A FUTURE STAR

FLIGHT LEADER (39) bolted up by nine lengths in the Grade 2 Brit Insurance Novices’ Hurdle over three miles at Cheltenham. In doing so he earned one of the biggest ratings I’ve given a novice hurdler all season.

I’m not convinced that Flight leader needs soft ground to produce this level of form. His sire gets plenty of winners on firm going and his dam was a fast ground performer too. I reckon all he needs is three miles plus. He’s unbeaten over this trip in two tries and is going to be hard to beat at long distances in future. Long term he looks a terrific chasing prospect.

BORDER CASTLE IS USEFUL IN MUD

BORDER CASTLE (36) earned a pattern class speed rating from me when winning a hot handicap on the flat in the mud. And he repeated the feat in very soft ground over hurdles at Cheltenham.

Clearly Border Castle is a useful horse when the ground is soft. It may very well be that he's best fresh too. So far he's won all three times he's raced on yielding or softer ground following a lengthy break. But seeing that this run came off a six month break I'd bet on him still being fresh next time. If he gets his ground I reckon he'll win again.

STONEACRE LAD IS GROUP CLASS

I mentioned STONEACRE LAD (39) here after he'd run a pattern class time to win at Leicester in the Summer. I mentioned at the time that he seemed to prefer fields of eleven or less, and he went on to validate this idea by winning a ten runner affair at Southwell in a time that would win most Group 3 races.

Stoneacre Lad has run below form both times he's tried the lightning fast Polytrack at Lingfield. But he's won four of his last five starts on AW courses elsewhere in fields of eleven or less. And his sole loss came when he ran close off a long lay off.

Seeing that he's improving according to my speed ratings and has already run so fast I think it's best to regard Stoneacre lad as unbeatable in small fields below Group class. And in the Spring when those new Listed races on the AW are run I'd watch out for Stoneacre Lad's name in one of them. If it's not at Lingfield and the field is less than twelve I'd be wary of betting against him.

Runner-up MOOREHOUSE LAD (37), like the winner, is still only a three year old, and he's improving too. So I'd be looking for him to frank this form next time out. He seems best at five furlongs too and may also prefer small fields, though it's too early to tell for sure.

THIS SUPER HORSE IS NOT SO SUPER

Kauto Star (41) went and proved me wrong by winning the Tingle Creek Chase. And I do wish he'd run a fast time because then I could finally wave the white flag and join the bandwagon. But I'm afraid I just can't find a way to massage his speed rating into being anything more than just another of the good Grade 2 class performances he's put up in the past.

I honestly don't understand why the British racing press seem so keen on Kauto Star. The top three Irish chasers Kicking King, War Of Attrition and Beef Or Salmon all routinely run six to twelve lengths faster over three miles according to my speed ratings. And Kauto Star is not alone in winning Grade 1 chases over three miles as well as two. War Of Attrition and Kicking King both did that ages ago and nobody made much fuss about it.

Maybe I'm wrong. Perhaps Kauto Star will romp home in the King George and the Gold Cup and prove himself a true Champion. But right now all I can say is that if Kauto Star is a Champion he's the slowest one I've ever seen.

I'm keeping an open mind about runner-up VOY POR USTEDES (38). In my experience this is the best approach when a horse begins tackling experienced chasers after its novice season. It may turn out that the horse is suited to entirely different circumstances to those it was able to win under as a novice. The faster early pace and stronger competition of open company often bring out preferences that weren't apparent before. In this regard I'm thinking of the influences for stamina in Voy Por Ustedes' pedigree. I also have in mind the comment once made by his former trainer in France that he felt the horse was better on dead flat tracks.

CENTRAL HOUSE (29) was the unlucky horse of the race. It's impossible to say how he would have fared but for being brought to a near standstill by the fallen Dempsey with six to jump. But my ratings say he'd have gone very close.

Central House's trainer Dessie Hughes has said in the past that it's hard to keep condition on the horse. This is surely why Central House always loses form in February or sometimes sooner. But this early in the season, once he's got a run under his belt he's a near unstoppable force on yielding or softer ground at less than two and a half miles. In fact, prior to this start he would have won or finished second to a very smart Grade 1 performer seventeen times out of nineteen in these circumstances but for being eased when the jockey mistook the winning post in last year's Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase at Leopardstown.

No doubt Central House will be out to put the record straight in this year's renewal of the Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase later this month. He'll surely be tough to beat there even if his recent conqueror Nickname shows up.

MY WAY DE SOLZEN SHOULD STILL BE ARKLE FAVOURITE

MY WAY DE SOLZEN (32) ran below form at Sandown over hurdles. In fact he's now lost all six times he's run on tracks not described as undulating by the Racing Post since stepping up to better class company on his third UK start. However he's won five of the six times he's run on undulating courses such as Cheltenham and earned all his big speed ratings when he's been asked to go up hill and down dale.

This being so it's hardly surprising that My Way De Solzen again ran below his best when second to Fair Along (37) at Sandown last week. What is surprising is that Fair Along has now been promoted to Arkle favourtism while My Way De Solzen has been pushed out to 14-1.

My Way de Solzen showed on his chasing debut that he can run at least as fast as the average Arkle winner at two miles on an undulating course. I've no doubt that he'll do so again in future, very likely at Cheltenham in March. Fair Along isn't in the same league according to my speed ratings and I'd bet on that becoming evident sooner rather than later.

THE LISTENER HAS A SHOT IN THE LEXUS CHASE

I thought that Star De Mohaison (40) was well worth taking on at Sandown last week as he'd run below form twice last season when encountering soft ground on stiff tracks. He improved when fitted with a tongue tie. But a tongue tie is a sure sign of a breathing problem and horses with breathing problems tend to run below form in testing conditions.

As it turned out Star de Mohaison won but I'm rather dubious about his chances of making up into a Gold Cup contender. He needs to run a bit faster and his breathing problems may yet catch up with him.

THE LISTENER (40) needs to run a bit faster to if he's to beat Gold Cup horses. But his connections said before the race that the run would bring him on considerably in fitness. So he did well to lose narrowly and run faster than he ever has before according to my speed ratings.

The Listener lost on his hurdling debut but with any sort of luck would have won all of nine of his subsequent starts on yielding or softer ground prior to this run. He earned one of the biggest speed ratings I've ever given a chasing debutante when a year ago and continues to look a terrific prospect.

It's a shame that The Listener needs cut in the ground as this all but rules him out of the Gold Cup picture. But he's got a major chance of getting his ground if he takes up his chance in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown on the 28th. I'd give him a real shot in that race.

DON'T UNDER-ESTIMATE WILD CANE RIDGE

WILD CANE RIDGE (40) ran a Grade 2 class time to beat the smart Mister McGoldrick (36) by ten lengths at Ayr last week. And, looking through his record, I'm beginning to think he might even be Grade 1 class. After all he's basically won every time he's had a chance.

Most horses loses their hurdling debuts, so we can forgive him that loss. Most horses lose the first two times they run back over hurdles after going chasing. So I'm happy to chuck out those two defeats as well. I'll also gladly draw a line though another bad run when his stable was horribly out of form due to a bug. Otherwise Wild cane Ridge would have won his other nine completed starts if he hadn't jumped poorly when losing in a photo on one occasion.

Obviously jumping is the big question with Wild Cane Ridge as he's made mistakes, fallen and been forced to revert to hurdles in the past. But he jumped around a course that has claimed the fourth highest percentage of fallers in Britain over the last decade here, and did so at speed.

I look forward to seeing Wild Cane Ridge run in a big chase soon. If he gets the cut in the ground he seems to prefer I'd be wary of betting against him.

SIBERION A SMART NOVICE CHASER

SIBERION (37) looked set to win when tipping up with four to jump at Plumpton the other day. If he had he would almost certainly have run as fast as he has in some of the best hurdles in Italy and Germany.

Siberion has won a Grade 2 over fixed brush hurdles and finished second in a Grade 1. I'd bet that Christian von der Recke will be shipping him back to Britain sooner rather than later. When he does I'd want to be betting him.

GENTLEMAN'S DEAL IS VERY SMART

GENTLEMAN'S DEAL (39) extended his unbeaten record on the AW to four races with a wide margin win in Group class time at Southwell. The thing is his two fastest runs by far have come on the Fibresand. I'm not yet sure that he can reproduce this level of form on Polytrack. If he were mine I'd be shipping him to America because Fibresand is far more like traditional dirt than Polytrack and this run indicates he can win big races on dirt across the Pond.

ACTIVO IS WORTH FOLLOWING

ACTIVO (37) ran nothing but good races over ten furlongs on Polytrack last Winter. So it's not surprising ran big again when losing a red hot handicap on returning to what seems his best trip and surface. He lost narrowly but remains eligible for class 4 contests which is pretty amazing for a horse that routinely runs pattern class times. This being so he looks well worth following.

The winner was SOLO FLIGHT (38) who seems to have been revived by a switch to the Polytrack. I do worry a bit that he may need the strong pace he had here to produce his best. But it's too early to tell that yet. Solo Flight may well be able to run just as well of the slow early gallop that normally prevails on the Polytrack. Certainly he should be able to win again soon.

WOODNOOK IS A SMART SPRINTER

I hate nominating sprinters to follow in Britain as there are just so many fast horses in the UK at 5-6f. However I simply must make note of WOODNOOK (40) who earned a Group 2 class time when going under in a photo to course record holder Maltese Falcon (40) at Lingfield.

Maltese Falcon has already run second in Group company and now has a big official rating which will make him hard to place. But Woodnook is still eligible for class 4 events, and I wouldn't want to oppose her in even class 2 company right now.