AWESOME RUN BY KAUTO STAR

You won't hear me knocking KAUTO STAR (46) again after his demolition job on a high class field in this year's King George. He left them all for dead up the straight and for once jumped the last cleanly to score in astonishingly fast time.

The pace of the race was very good indeed. They reached the ninth 15.3 seconds ahead of the novices in the Feltham but still managed to cover the remaining distance 3.1 seconds faster. A comparison with the other novice chase over three and a half furlongs shorter also makes interesting reading. From nine fences out they ran 7.8 seconds slower in that race than they went in the King George. Clearly the front runners set one hell of a pace in the ing George and Kauto Star put up an extraordinary effort to sustain it and break away from his rivals rounding the home turn and all the way up the straight.

This was the best jump performance on the clock in years according to my speed ratings.

Kauto Star has now won all six times he's gone three miles or more. I would only ever think about opposing him over shorter trips or off a long lay-off.

OUR VIC (42), EXOTIC DANCER (42) and RACING DEMON (42) all ran fast enough to win most King Georges. But they were left trailing in the wake of Kauto Star as they fought out a remarkably tight race for second.

OUR VIC (42) always goes well fresh and did so again to chase the Champion home in a very tight three way battle for second place. Next time he comes into a race off a five week or longer break since his last completed start he'll be well worth considering.

EXOTIC DANCER (42) equaled his best ever speed rating to take third. He looked sure to finish a clear second entering the straight but Our Vic and RACING DEMON (42) both rallied to make a race of it. Although I should add that all three horses that fought out second place were really tired from a long way out.

Despite his big effort I suspect trainer Jonjo O'Neill is right to say Exotic Dancer is better at Cheltenham than Kempton. Indeed I wonder whether the horse is really at his best on any right-handed track seeing that he's now lost all five times he's run this way around.

Racing Demon of course is the reverse in that he jumps to the right and clearly prefers right-handed tracks like Kempton. Indeed his jockey Graham Lee aimed him almost at the wings of the fences right on the rail so that he had no room to jump right here. Jockey Graham Lee was clearly under instructions to make the running as he gave Racing Demon a crack of the whip all three times he looked in danger of losing the lead in the first two thirds of the race. Racing Demon looked to tire badly when he was headed after the fourteenth as he lost ground rapidly. But he then got a second wind and rallied rather remarkably despite looking tired to just miss second place.

Maybe Racing Demon will never win left-handed, but following this run I'd like to see him given a shot at the Cheltenham Gold Cup over 1.5 furlongs longer than he's tried to date. He ran his best ever race over hurdles at the longest trip he ran in the Sun Alliance Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival despite the course being left-handed. Seeing how he rallied here I wouldn't be surprised to seem him run his best race over fences at the longest trip he's tried too.

MY WAY DE SOLZEN had to be pulled up after getting outpaced, adding more weight to the idea that he needs an undulating track to produce his best. As I mentioned after his last run, since stepping up to pattern company My Way De Solzen has won seven times out of eight on tracks that the Racing Post describe as undulating. On other courses his sole win in nine tries in Listed and Graded races was in a nothing contest where he had over 30 pounds in hand of official figures and started at six to one on.

STRAW BEAR STILL ALMOST UNSTOPPABLE IN MUD

STRAW BEAR (43) put up one of best performances over timber in the last few years to beat HARCHIBALD (43) by a head in the Christmas Hurdle. He's now won nine of the ten times he's run on what my going allowances say was yielding or softer ground at seven furlongs or more (I'm counting Fibresand as yielding) but has lost all ten times he's run on anything faster.

Quite why he lost the one time is hard to say. I'm betting it's because he broke a blood vessel, as he did in last year's Champion Hurdle.

A measure of the pace Straw Bear went here can be gained from the fact that they reached the fourth last in his race 7.4 seconds sooner than in the good novice hurdle on the same card but ran the remainder of the race just 0.8 seconds slower even though the novices were able to sprint home off the slow gallop in their contest.

The going is usually good or faster even when it's officially good to soft at the Cheltenham Festival. So it's unlikely that Straw Bear will get his ground for the Champion Hurdle. But whenever it's genuinely yielding or slower I'd be very wary of opposing him. Though I have to add I'd like to see him kept fresh from now on because most horses that have bled prefer breaks between their runs.

Harchibald, as ever, cruised along the whole way. But, once more he found absolutely nothing once he hit the front and was just outrun by a more willing rival.

Frustrating as he is, I find it hard to knock Harchibald. He can run with anything on any ground on any course. It's just that he's ferociously hard to win with as he weighs anchor almost as soon as he hits the front and does not respond to being hit with the whip or ridden vigorously like other horses. I still think that the searching early pace and steep uphill finish in the Champion Hurdle may enable his jockey to delay his challenge long enough to succeed.

FRANCHOEK NEEDS A STRONG PACE

FRANCHOEK (39) won the Grade 1 Finale Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow in what I rate the fastest performance by a juvenile this season and deserves to be favourite for the Triumph. He won all three times he ran two miles on the flat and has won the three hurdle races where he's encountered what my speed ratings say was a strong pace.

Franchoek has shown that he's vulnerable off a slow pace. But he showed here how smart he can be when encountering a strong gallop, keeping on really strongly to outpace a high class rival in TATENEN (38).

Franchoek should get the stiff gallop he needs at the Cheltenham Festival where he looks the one to beat. Later on he'll have the chance to move up to longer trips and will probably not be at the mercy of the pace.

Tatenen is a long striding chasing sort who shows plenty of knee action. He was always moving well but got done for pace by the winner though keeping on strongly.

His stride pattern suggests he wants cut in the ground, something he's unlikely to get in the Triumph Hurdle. He'd be interesting if it came up soft at Aintree though.

Long term Tatenen is surely going to need at least two and a half miles. He certainly looks an exciting prospect for novice chases next season.

SERABAD (37) ran a big race to take third. He won in pattern company on the flat and has improved with every one of his hurdles starts. He looked a big threat early in the straight and I can see him improving to trouble the winner at Cheltenham. Meanwhile he's going to be tough to beat next time.

VOY POR USTEDES TOUGH TO BEAT IN STRONGLY RUN RACES

VOY POR USTEDES (40) showed how good he is when winning the Desert Orchid Chase for the second year running over Christmas. He's been beaten three times in slowly run contests but has won eight of the other nine times he's completed the course over fences, his only defeat being a second place finish to Kauto Star.

I continue to believe that Voy Por Ustedes would run more consistently at two and a half miles. At two miles he's always going to be vulnerable if the early pace is too slow to enable his stamina to kick in.

HOW GOOD IS PALOMAR

PALOMAR (38) was the easiest winner I've seen in ages when he took a good class 3 handicap hurdle at Kempton's Christmas meeting. He was Group placed on the flat and equaled the biggest speed rating I ever gave him on the level here. But it did look clear that he could have gone a fair bit faster if pressed. He was moving as easily as a horse just cantering down to the start at the finish.

Clearly Palomar has got over the problem of pulling hard that saw him fail to last home in his early hurdles starts. He's now won his last three outings over timber and will still be ludicrously well handicapped even if he goes up twenty plus pounds in the ratings. A big handicap hurdle should be his for the taking. After that it will be fascinating to see just how good Palomar is.

PEPPORNI PETE NEEDS MUCH LONGER

MAHIOGANY BLAZE (25) earned rave reviews for his runaway win in the Grade 2 Wayward Ld Novices Chase at Kempton. But I think he looked so good simply he was the only horse in the race able to jump the fences at the increased pace from halfway. They reached the sixth fence 3.9 seconds later than they did in the Desert Orchid Chase later on the same card after which the gallop picked up noticeably. Nonetheless he still clocked a time 2.3 seconds slower for the remainder of the race than they did in the Desert Orchid. This suggests strongly that he's really not that good at all and will be exposed when he meets better class rivals that can go a searching pace over two miles.

The horse that really hated the increased tempo was PEPPORONI PETE. As soon as the gallop picked up he smashed the next fence hard and jumped very slow thereafter till falling at the last. He clearly cannot jump at speed.

Looking at his form it's easy to conclude that Pepporoni Pete is only good off a three month or longer break and that he must have fast ground. But I'm not at all sure this is right. The going allowances I make for my speed ratings say that Pepporoni Pete can act on going that's yielding. In addition my speed ratings and the way he ran here point towards another explanation for his seemingly in and out form.

After he'd lost a big Bumper race at Newbury Pepporoni Pete's jockey said he was unsuited to the slow early pace. This makes sense. He's out of a mare whose only other winning foal has scored in a three and a quarter mile hurdle race. And he's by a sire whose best progeny all stayed at least three and a quarter miles (most stayed four). The way he got utterly outpaced here certainly indicates he wants much longer.

It seems to me that Pepporoni Pete is a three mile plus chaser in the making. So far the only time he's had a chance to run beyond two miles was on unsuitably soft ground. But there are clear signs of stamina from his other races. My speed ratings indicate that he's won four of the five times he's run on yielding or faster ground on stiff tracks or in races not run at a slow pace. If he steps up to at least two and a half miles next time I'd be very interested in Pepporoni Pete's chances.

PETIT ROBIN A SMART CHASING PROSPECT

PETIT ROBIN (38) has a rather unusual pedigree for a jumper in that his sire was actually a winning steeplechaser. His dam was unraced but her six siblings which reached the races all ran over fences too. Clearly therefore Petit Robin is bred for the bigger jumps, and he showed it by winning his first and second lifetime starts at Pau over fences.

Petit Robin showed he could do very well over hurdles when making all the running to win well at Newbury - making all then sprinting clear on the run in to win full of running. What was impressive was that he set a strong pace throughout the two miles and three furlongs yet came home from the fourth last jump in exactly the same time as they managed in the fastest two mile hurdle on the same card.

Petit Robin jumped like a stag, or perhaps I should say like a steeplechaser, giving the hurdles plenty of room. He'll deserve his place at the Cheltenham Festival and showed enough pace on the run-in here to indicate he's not going to be done for speed over timber. But his physique, his jumping style and his pedigree all say he's not going to show his best till he goes back over fences. His best must be pretty darned good because I gave him one of the biggest speed ratings I've awarded a novice hurdler all season for this performance.

JACK THE GIANT JUST AS GOOD OVER HURDLES

JACK THE GIANT (39), one of the top novice chasers last season, showed that he's just as good over hurdles with a battling win in the Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot.

There are two keys to Jack The Giant; the ground and the spacing of his races. He needs genuinely good or faster going and, like many of the top two mile chasers, is best on his first two runs of the season an needs a gap of at least five weeks between his completed starts thereafter.

Jack The Giant could now have won seven of the eight times he's run on good ground when fresh if he hadn't lost one race by a short head through running green.

I have to say I am a good deal less sanguine than Jack The Giant's connections seem to be about his prospects of staying two and a half miles.

If he's rested now and gets his ground on the day I'd say Jack The Giant has a major chance of taking the Game Spirit Chase next time.

ALSADAA (38) ran a big race to run the winner close and is clearly a smart hurdler on fast ground. He may well have won all four of his previous starts over timber but for tipping up one time. I imagine he'll now be laid off till the Spring as his record on yielding or softer ground is very poor. He's one of the better novice hurdlers on this run and could well take a Grade 2 or 3 event on fast ground. He's too small for chasing and probably needs a bit of bounce in the ground to clear hurdles effectively.

FUNDAMENTALIST WON ON STAMINA

I always try to figure out what preferences a horse has for course, going and distance. But I have to confess that FUNDAMENTALIST (39) has me stumped. You could argue that he prefers small fields, shorter trips, fast ground and being fresh from his form. But there is always contrary evidence for whichever theory you come up with.

My best guess is that there was something wrong with Fundamentalist which caused him to lose form and that now he's over the problem. He's certainly improved with every run this season and ran right back to his very best when winning at Ascot before Christmas.

The Ascot race was run at a searching pace, and it seems to me that Fundamentalist won it on stamina. I'd therefore like to see him step up to at least three miles next time. Softer ground or a stiffer track would not come amiss either.

Runner up COSSACK DANCER (38) has reached the first two ten of the eleven times he's gone right-handed on good or faster ground. Clearly he's useful in these circumstances.

VODKA BLEU BEST ON FAST GROUND

VODKA BLEU (38) bounced back to his best to take the BGC Silver Cup at Ascot. My read of his form is that he needs fast ground to clear fences and prefers smallish fields as he's a bit below average size and find it hard to fight for position. He's won the last five times he's run on good or faster ground in fields of 13 or less.

Runner up MADISON DU BERLAIS (37) may also be best in smaller fields. He's won six of his seven British outings in fields of 11 or less when he's had a recent run.

BOYCHUK (35) set a strong pace just as he had last time out. But he jumped out to the left both times they tackled the fences on the far side of the course. This cost him the lead on the second circuit. He faded from there but then rallied late to regain fourth on the run in.

I note that Boychuk has run below form all three times he's run at Ascot. It could very well be he's better on left-handed courses. He has won going right-handed but this was at Exeter, which at two miles has the biggest circumference of any right-hand course. On tighter right-handed courses he's now lost six times out of six.

Boychuk's bold, safe jumping and his tremendous stamina make him look a very good prospect for next season's Grand National. Meanwhile I'd like to see him shoot for another big marathon chase on a left-handed course. He's won a Grade 2 and placed twice in Grade 1 company and has run fast enough to win pretty much anything below Gold Cup class on five separate occasions according to my speed ratings.

WHERE DOES MIKO DE BEAUCHENE GO FROM HERE?

MIKO DE BEAUCHENE (40) just managed to prevent HALCON GENELARDAIS (40) from winning the Welsh National for a second time. But, smart as he is, it's hard to see what else he's going to win this season. His trainer says he needs cut in the ground and must go left-handed which looks correct. I would add that he also seems to be best fresh, that is on his first two completed runs off a long break and with five weeks plus between his completed starts thereafter.

The Grand National is out as Miko De Beauchene has only run five times over fences before. The Irish National is on a right-handed course so that's a non-starter. So it would seem that the only realistic target for the horse is the Scottish Grand National. But will he get his ground for that race and will his connections keep him fresh enough? On balance I rather suspect that we won't be seeing Miko De Beauchene win again this season. Certainly he had a very hard race here and will surely need a rest now.

I suspect that Halcon Genelardais is also best fresh. So I'd be inclined to oppose him if he runs again before February. He looked to be moving best for almost all the race here and would probably have won if only he'd jumped the last cleanly.

One of these days Halcon Genelardais is going to beat Gold Cup horses when he's fresh and racing on yielding or softer ground. He's that good. But, like the winner, he's rather hard to place.

OVER THE CREEK (36) ran a bit below his best to take a distant third. I dare say he could have run closer to his previous best speed rating if his jockey had beaten him up like the winner, but that wouldn't have improved his placing. In any event I see him as a somewhat more likely winner this season than either of the two that beat him. He'd won the three previous times he'd run further than three miles and still has an official rating that understates his ability by a wide margin.

NAUNTON BROOK (35) set a a searching pace and made a valiant attempt to rally in the closing stages after he'd been beaten off. But he didn't have the steep uphill finish he seems to need to help him.

I stick with my theory that Naunton Brooki is at his best on tracks with steep uphill finishes where the fences claim a low percentage of fallers. There are four such tracks in Britain - Carlisle, Exeter, Hexham and Towcester. He's won the last three times he's run on such courses and lost the last nine times he's run elsewhere.

Further back in the field GUNGADU (33) confirmed that he doesn't stay much more than three miles. He looked set to fight out the finish when he broke clear with the first two early in the straight but tired soon after. He'd taken a tired looking fall two out in the National Hunt Chase the only previous time he'd been asked to go a marathon trip.

Back over shorter Gungadu has earned ratings as high as 39 from me and is clearly a smart chaser. He lost his first point to point start as most horses do. Since then he's won six of the seven chases he's contested at around three miles (I'm including his point to point success). His sole chase loss barring his racecourse debut at trips short of marathon distances was a length and a half defeat by the multiple Grade 1 placed Boychuk. Gungadu will surely win a big three mile handicap chase sometime this season

SIR HARRY ORMESHER NEEDS A BIGGER FIELD

DEEP PURPLE (26) stretched his unbeaten run over hurdles to five when taking the Grade 2 Kennel Gate Novices' Hurdle at Ascot. However he has yet to run a pattern class time and once more had things all his own way up front in the small field here. He set a slow pace and when he quickened things up after halfway the jump bred rivals he was facing had a problem matching his flat race speed. Even so he ended up winning driven out so I really don't think he's that smart.

The weakness of Deep Purple's performance can be seen from the fact that he was allowed to run 4.4 seconds slower to the fifth jump than they did in the Ladbroke the next day when you allow for the slight difference in going. But he actually lost a bit of ground from that point on his more experienced rivals when he should have gained considerably.

My gut feel is that when Deep Purple is forced to go a stronger early pace he'll be in serious trouble.

I've little doubt that fourth placed SIR HARRY ORMESHER (24) will turn out to be better over hurdles than Deep Purple. He was caught flat footed when the winner kicked for home. But he then started to move better and ranged alongside him as they entered the straight. However at that point the horses up front spread across the track and Sir Harry Ormesher was clearly seeing way too much daylight. He began to run green just as he had last time. He looked like he wanted to ease himself up two out and simply walked through the last.

On his hurdling debut last time Sir Harry Ormesher was always cruising. And it was remarkable to see how well he jumped even when he was crowded. His jockey clearly didn't want to let go of him till the last possible moment but was forced to let him stride on before the last. When he did Sir Harry Ormesher ran green just like at Ascot, as inexperienced horses often do when going clear in a race. He ran around and lost concentration to the point where he made his only mistake of the race, dragging his back legs though the last, again just as he did at Ascot.

In a bigger field Sir Harry Ormesher is not going to face the problem of getting done for speed off a slow early pace. He's also going to be able to find a lot more cover. So I would anticipate major improvement. Indeed if there was a Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner in this race I would say he was it.

CALATAGAN LIKES WETHERBY

CALATAGAN (38) has earned pattern class speed ratings from me on the flat and over hurdles, and did so over fences when taking Wetherby's Castleford Chase.

I confess I've found it hard to predict Calatagan in the past. His trainer says this is because he pulls hard and needs a strong pace to help him settle. He got that here but it's always hard to predict just how fast the leaders will go in jump races. However, it does seem that whatever the pace Calatagan always runs his race at Wetherby. He's won all three times he's run at the course so far and lost the last fifteen times he's run elsewhere.

PASCO NEEDS LONGER

PASCO (22) clocked a slow time when winning a maiden hurdle at Newbury. But sectional times suggest he can run a good deal faster. Colton went off at too fast a pace in his contest, reaching the fifth hurdle 1.4 seconds sooner than the leader did in the fastest two mile hurdle on the same card. This may not sound much but I think it took the runners over what I call their 'collapse point'. There is a pretty wide spread to the early pace horses can go without hurting their final time. However my studies suggest there is a point where they can go so fast early they can't sustain anything like a racing pace from there to the finish. The pace collapses and the runners stagger home to clock a remarkably slow time. This certainly looked to be the case in Pasco's race. Almost all the other runners were being ridden along vigorously fully a mile from home. Pasco was the only one to keep going properly.

Pasco is a huge horse with a big raking stride that shows plenty of knee action. I strongly suspect he's a future three mile chaser. Back in a normally run two mile contest I think he'd get done for pace except perhaps on very soft ground. But over longer I think he could equal the borderline pattern class times he was running on the flat.

BOOMSHAKALAKA DOES IT AGAIN

BOOMSHAKALAKA (25) won in very fast time on his chasing debut at Kempton and showed that he doesn't need to go a strong pace to beat decent rivals at the same course over Christmas. However his exuberant jumping which had made him look so impressive at a strong gallop last time nearly got him into trouble at a much slower pace here. He overjumped two or three times and landed very steeply. This could easily have unseated his rider.

Only at a couple of points in this race were the runners going anything like a proper racing pace, and then only briefly. This explains why they covered the distance from the ninth last fence 7.8 seconds slower than they did in the King George.

Previously I'd theorized that Boomshakalaka might be best fresh and could go off the boil unless rested after his second start, which this was. However this race was so slow that I doubt it took much more out of Boomshakalaka than a stiff gallop at home, so I would not bet on him 'bouncing' off this performance. He remains a very promising novice chaser. Though I would add that now I'd prefer him in a bigger field where they'd likely go a strong enough pace to make his bold jumping more of an asset than it was here.

KING LOUIS' JUMPING COULD WIN HIM A BIG RACE

KING LOUIS (36) is a big strong sort who always looked likely to improve when switched to fences. Sure enough he ran fourth in a hot novice chase on his debut over fences and followed up with a good win at Ascot.

A measure of the quality of King Louis' win can be gained from the fact that they reached the sixth fence in his race 1.1 seconds slower than in the class 2 handicap chase over the same trip later on the card but ended up running a final time that was 2.9 seconds faster.

King Louis settled well behind the front running GENTLE JOHN (31) and moved alongside when that one ploughed through the fourth last and lost a lot of momentum. He only had to be kept up to his work to stride eleven lengths clear on the run in. But it didn't look like he had much in hand, so I suspect the Listed class speed rating I've awarded him accurately pegs his class. I should add though that King Louis jumped very well indeed for a novice and this may well win him a big race at some point this season.

It's very hard to say at this point what distance and going will suit King Louis best. His record indicates that he doesn't get two and a half miles when the going is soft. But he has pulled hard in his previous races and it may well be he'll get longer now he's learned to settle. He's certainly built to go through soft ground too.

Gentle John would have finished closer but for his blunder at the fourth last. He'd jumped well and set a pace that had many of his rivals in trouble till then. He's a decent looking horse that will surely be improving and winning a novice chase soon. Very few novice chasers can set as good a pace as he did here and jump well while doing so.

LOUGH DERG DIND'T STEAL THE LONG WALK

In Ascot's Long Walk Hurdle, LOUGH DERG (40) faced three high class rivals whose stamina for three miles was suspect in Hardy Eustace, Black Kack Ketchum and Kasbah Bliss. So it was a shrewd move on his jockey's part to make the race a serious test of stamina by setting a searching gallop.

The clock indicates that Lough Derg did not steal the race from the front as many seem to suppose. The pace he set was strong enough to ensure that he took five seconds longer to come home over the last five flights than they did in the Ladbroke Hurdle on the same card. It was certainly strong enough to ensure that the stamina flaws of all his main rivals were thoroughly exposed.

I will now be very wary of betting any of the horses Lough Derg beat over three miles in future. And I'll certainly accord Lough Derg himself a great deal more respect when he runs this far gain in future. He's clearly very smart over marathon trips.

CLOUDY LANE IS AMAZINGLY CONSISTENT

CLOUDY LANE (38) always seems to need his first run of the season. And he didn't loom to stay three miles five furlongs the two times he tried that far. Otherwise he's been amazingly consistent at shorter trips, winning seven of his ten starts when he's had a completed run within the last six weeks. His latest success came in a strongly run renewal of the Tommy Whittle Chase at Haydock where he was held up and struck late to nail the front running COMPLY OR DIE (37) on the run in.

Comply Or Die is also very consistent. The proviso with him, as it is with many front runners, is that he seems to prefer dominating a smallish field. His six wins to date have all been in fields of nine or less. He did fine here in an eleven runner race, jumping boldly at a strong pace and looking the winner until very late. Next time he hits a field this small I'd give him a great shot of scoring.

HIGH CHIMES (37) stayed on like a train in the closing stages after getting outpaced. He was a high class point to pointer and looks set to win a big handicap chase over a longer distance on this run.

FARCICAL FELTHAM

The Feltham Novices' Chase was a farcical contest because it was run at a ludicrously slow pace. They reached the ninth fence 15.3 seconds later than they did in the King George on the same card and still managed to cover the rest of the race 3.1 seconds slower because the race only began in any sort of way after the thirteenth fence and turned into a sprint from there. They ran the race from that point 2.3 seconds quicker than they went in the King George.

The first two Joe Lively (15) and Here's Johnny (14) both had trouble jumping the last few fences at the speed they were going. But they had the pace to run away from SILVERBURN (12) and BARBERS SHOP (12) who seemed much less able to sprint than they were. Barbers Shop in particular suffered as he was stretched into an almighty blunder that almost stopped him in his tracks just after the sprint began at the fourteenth.

I strongly suspect that Silverburn and Barbers Shop will turn out better than the two that beat them. But basically this race told us very little and the form should not be taken seriously.

DON'T DISMISS GRAY STEEL

I thought that GRAY STEEL (25) was a good thing to take a Graduation Chase at Exeter before Christmas. But he was denied the chance to adopt his normal front running role by MISTER QUASIMODO (37) and ended up tiring badly over the last two fences.

In France Gray Steel is used to having his own way up front on the dead flat mile and a half circuit of Auteuil. Here he was forced to go faster than he wanted and his stamina was found wanting by the stiff track and distance of nearly two and a quarter miles.

In France they there are very few races indeed over trips shorter than two and a half miles for older jumpers. And small fields are almost unheard of. So a front running horse like Gray Steel that's best at around two or two and a quarter miles when dominating a small field from the front tends to have a hard time winning. However when he has met his favoured circumstances he's done very well indeed. He needed his first couple of starts over hurdles. Since then he's won three times out of four in fields of eleven or less at two and a half miles or less in France. His sole defeat came when he ran a close third to Kasbah Bliss (who I reckon is the top staying hurdler) and multiple Grade 1 placed Shinco du Berlais. He only got caught with 150 yards to go that day.

Here Gray Steel showed that in the more strongly run chases running Britain he's going to be better suited by two miles, probably on an easier track than Exeter.

With opportunities so limited for him back home I'd bet on seeing Gray Steel running again in Britain this season. If he goes in a two mile chase on an easy course I'd be very interested in his chances. He went well and jumped well for nearly two miles here and has won Grade 2 and Grade 3 races in France.

I was impressed with the way Mister Quasimodo was able to cruise along at a pace that had Gray Steel being niggled along while jumping very neatly. He ended up winning by a wide margin, still moving well at the finish.

Mister Quasimodo clearly likes Exeter. His only loss in five starts at the track over trips short of three miles was a two length second to Noland who went on to win the Supreme Novices' Hurdle next time out. He has a similarly good record at Chepstow, so you could argue he's best on giant two mile ovals. My feeling is that he may be one of those horses that's best on his local tracks. After all he would have won nine of his ten starts over less than three miles at the tracks closest to his stables if he hadn't tipped up in one race and come up against very smart Grade 1 winners when running second in two others. He's lost all eight times he's run further from home. If I'm right Mister Quasimodo will also show his top form at Taunton as well as Exeter, Chepstow and Wincanton - local courses he's already run at.

It could be I'm misinterpreting Mister Quasimodo's form. You could also argue that he's simply not quite good enough to win in pattern company. So far he's won six of his eight completed starts below Listed and Graded class at trips shy of three miles and lost all seven times he's run in pattern company. My gut feel from watching him here though is that my speed ratings are right to indicate he's capable of winning at least a Listed chase. Hence my inclination towards the theory that he's best on his local tracks.

HOBBS HILL DOES IT AGAIN

HOBBS HILL (23) didn't have to run anything like as fast as his best to win a Grade 2 novice chase at Ascot. But he again showed that he's a seriously good two and a half mile chaser. He jumped really well except for the eighth fence where he jumped slow basically because he was being asked to set such a slow pace he didn't have enough momentum to clear the fence in the normal way. McCoy kicked on with him and asked him for a bigger jump at the next however where he put in a bold leap and continued to be faultless at the obstacles thereafter.

Around the home turn the second tried to make a race of it but Hobbs Hill only had to be asked to stretch for a couple of furlongs to get him in trouble again. He was clear by the time they reached the last and was eased up on the run in to win by three or four lengths less than he could have.

Despite being eased up Hobbs Hill came home 1.3 seconds faster over the last seven fences than King Louis did in the other novice chase which was two furlongs shorter. Clearly he has plenty of pace.

It's hard to see this giant of a horse getting beat in novice company. So it's understandable that his connections are now talking about taking on more experienced chasers at the Cheltenham Festival in the Ryanair. If he stuck to novice company he'd have to drop back to two miles for the Arkle or step up to three miles for the Sun Alliance Chase, neither of which look like a good idea.

HERECOMESTANLEY SHOULD IMPROVE

The form of the Irish point to point that HERECOMESTANLEY (34) won by ten lengths has certainly worked out well. And we saw why when he won on his hurdling debut at Plumpton. Throughout the race this classy looking sort was cruising along, going far better than any of his rivals. It looked like he'd open up to win by a huge margin when his rider sent him on approaching the straight. However he just kept on galloping at the same speed. And although he opened up a gap of a few lengths he never accelerated in the way his jockey clearly wanted him to. Instead he ran around, looking rather green. He won the race with a fair bit in hand but only by five lengths, about half the margin that looked likely when he kicked on.

You can argue that if Herecomestanley had any serious acceleration he would have shown it here. But there is a fair chance he simply didn't know that his jockey wanted him to quicken up. You see this quite often with inexperienced horses when they're asked to go and win their race. And Hereceomestanley certainly showed major sings of greenness on his only previous start under rules - getting worked up before a Bumper race and unseating his rider in the paddock.

As he gains experience I strongly suspect that Herecomestanley will show he can run fast enough to be at least competitive in pattern company. He jumped nimbly here and easily covered every move that the pacemakers made without having to be ridden. This suggests he'd have no problem going faster. Obviously he's a great prospect for novice chases next season. This run showed that he might also be a prospect for the Ballymore Properties at Cheltenham this season. Clearly he has the speed to be effective over 2m 5f and doesn't need three, at least over hurdles.

OSANA KEEPS ON IMPROVING

I think it would be unwise to try and pin down exactly what circumstances suit OSANA (42). My speed ratings indicate that he has improved steadily throughout his career and is doing things now that he formerly was unable to. For example when he won the Boylesports.com International Hurdle at Cheltenham last week he set a stronger pace than he had in last season's County Hurdle. He faded up the hill in the County Hurdle, but last week he kept going to score an eight length win over smart rivals.

I don't really know where KATCHIT (38) goes from here. He keeps banging out the same Grade 3 speed rating and did so again to chase the winner home here. He's not running fast enough to win top Conditions hurdles and his rating is too high for handicaps. So if he keeps at this level of form he's obviously going to have problems. However he is only four and the way he powered up to challenge before the last suggests to me that he is going to improve when he matures and strengthens up a bit. Therefore I'd keep him in mind for a few months hence.

SUBLIMITY (33) had won the last five times he'd been away for more than six weeks and returned on genuinely good or slower going. So he has to be classified as disappointing for finishing a distant fourth.

It could be that Sublimity needs much softer ground. After all he's won all three of his hurdle starts on going that was officially softer than yielding and lost all four times he's run on faster ground. You can counter that race times suggest it was good when he won the Champion and not the official soft. But they have so much scope to move the rails at Cheltenham there has to be a question about whether race times were actually telling us the true state of the ground. In any event Sublimity was the slowest Champion Hurdle winner in recent years according to my speed ratings and would not have won this even with his best previous effort. I'll be interested in him next time he comes into a race on soft or heavy ground off a break. But I'll be inclined to oppose him otherwise.

AFSOUN (33) ran like he wanted longer, getting outpaced then staying on again late. He's produced his best run over nearly two and a half miles last time and probably needs to go back up to that sort of trip. But he also needs a rest as his record clearly shows he's best fresh.

Mudlark STRAW BEAR (33) moved up threateningly at one point but the ground was too fast for him to sustain his effort. However he showed enough to convince me he's still one of the best hurdlers on soft ground.

KRUGUYROVA CONFIRMS SHE'S THE BEST MARE

I mentioned after her UK debut that I'd awarded KRUGUYROVA (40) a bigger speed rating than any British or Irish mare for her last French win. Sure enough she went and replicated her big French effort by running a tremendously fast time to take a novice chase at Plumpton on her fencing debut.

Kruguyrova set a fierce pace that soon had many of her rivals in trouble. She herself ran down a couple of jumps and hit one pretty hard but she ended up passing the line still looking fresh with a couple of lengths to spare.

Clearly Kruguyrova has become one of the leading candidates for the Arkle on this run. Whether her gung ho, take no prisoners style of front running can be sustained up that steep final climb at Cheltenham I'm not yet sure. But you'd have to be pretty brave to oppose her in novice company after this.

Runner-up ITS A DREAM (39) ran a tremendous race on his first start following an injury over 20 months back. He was outpaced like most of field but stayed on really well to close the gap rapidly on the winner on the run in. He is one of the top novice chasers on this run and looks a good thing to score next time even if he's stepped up to Grade 1 company. Clearly he's bred to go longer and ran as if an extra half mile at least would be much appreciated.

WILLIAM BONNEY (36) has been unlucky to come up against smart rivals in his two chase starts to date. He was the only one that wasn't totally outpaced by the winner and will surely take an ordinary novice chase soon.

PAUILLAC (33) got badly outpaced but stayed on well to take fourth. He's going to be useful when he gets the chance to go longer. I see him as a three mile plus chaser in the making.

DOES OVER THE CREEK NEED A BIG FIELD?

OVER THE CREEK (39) looked set to run away with the 100,000 pound Boylesports.com Cashback Chase when he kicked into a five length lead with two to jump. He'd been going better than anything else all the way and was still full of run as he burst away from his hard ridden rivals. Shortly thereafter though he began to take on the confused look of a really green horse that is missing the company of his rivals. His ears began to go all over the place, he slowed himself up and he proceeded to dive across the last two fences when previously he'd jumped straight as a die. He was still full of run but his jockey had to get busy to ensure he didn't pull himself up completely. As it is Over The Creek's antics managed to reduce his winning margin to just three quarters of a length at the line.

Over The Creek had jumped noticeably well before he kicked clear. Indeed, I can remember thinking that for a horse with a history of jumping problems he seemed remarkably happy to jump when surrounded by the other runners. It was only when he was on his own that his jumping went wrong.

It's interesting to note that Over The Creek's five wins have all come in big fields, eleven or more. He's failed to get to within fifteen lengths of the winner on the four occasions he's run in smaller fields.

It may well be that Over The Creek will become happier jumping with less company as he gains experience. But until he demonstrates this I'm going to be wary of betting him in smaller fields. Having said that I must add that if he'd kept straight and not eased himself up here he'd probably have earned a speed rating of around 41 from me. That's pushing Gold Cup class.

If he were mine I'd be skipping the Welsh National with Over The Creek and keeping him fresh for the Pillar Properties Chase at Cheltenham in January. He's missed a lot of time off with injury and will be nine years of age then. So my inclination would be to see if he can adapt to a smaller field and prove competitive with Gold Cup class rivals right away instead of trying to exploit his low handicap mark once more. If he's going to have a shot at winning a Grade 1 chase this season is surely the time to strike.

Runner-up SIMON (39) earned the biggest speed rating I've ever given him. But he lost his place for the second time in a row on an undulating course before rallying late. So far his six wins have all come on relatively flat tracks. In fact he's now won four of the five times he's run three miles plus on a flattish track with a recent run. His sole loss came when he was going well in last year's Grand National when tipping up with five to jump. Clearly that race will be his objective once more, and he deserves his prominent place in the ante-post betting for Aintree.

Old MONKERHOSTIN (38) finished in taking style up the hill after losing ground following a blunder on the far side. He seems to run his best races nowadays on tracks with steep uphill finishes. Indeed he's very consistent on such courses. Seeing that he's gone 15 pounds down the official ratings I can see him being placed to win a valuable handicap at Cheltenham or Sandown sometime in his next few starts.

PRINCIPE AZZURO (38) had jumping problems as a novice last term. But he jumped well to win a good handicap on his seasonal debut and ran his best ever race to finish a close up fourth here. He's rather hard to analyze at this point but is clearly capable of winning a valuable staying handicap chase.

RING THE BOSS CAN BOUNCE BACK

At first glance it looks like RING THE BOSS (27) was dreadfully disappointing at Cheltenham last Friday. He'd won his last five starts but was badly outrun in the closing stages this time to finish a moderate sixth. However his wins were all over longer distances or on much softer ground. And it looked clear this race just wasn't enough of a stamina test for him.

The field crawled along to the sixth flight and then sprinted the last seven furlongs or so. In fact, when you adjust for the slight difference in going, they reached the sixth flight 6.8 seconds slower than Osana did the next day when winning the big hurdle over the same course and distance. From there it was a flat out sprint to the line. No wonder the five horses that beat Ring The Boss home had all won or placed over a mile or less on the flat. They needed that sort of speed to feature in this race. Ring The Boss has never run under flat rules or gone less than two miles. I'd bet on him bouncing back to form when he encounters a more strongly run race, softer ground or a longer distance.

JACK THE GIANT (32) made a successful transition back to hurdles to score in a driving finish from the ultra-game ROMAN VILLA (32).

Jack he Giant seems to run to what I call the rest pattern. That is he's good for his first two starts of the season but then needs a break of at least five weeks between his completed starts to run well again. He would have won all six of his UK jump starts when fresh in this way but for one unlucky short head loss. He'll still be fresh for the Ladbroke next time so deserves his prominent position in the betting. Personally though I think Ring The Boss is likely to reverse placing's with him in that race as it will surely be a much more strongly run contest.

Roman Villa is an unusually small horse for a jumper. So I'd be wary of betting him in any race with a dozen or more runners until he's proven he can cope with it. I also suspect he needs a bit of bounce in the ground to clear the jumps, so soft ground would probably be difficult for him. However he traveled very strongly in the sprint to the line here and would surely be a threat to beat just about anything in a small field where a slow early pace seemed likely.

ENLIGHTENMENT PROBABLY BEST FRESH

ENLIGHTENMENT (37) is beginning to look very much like a two mile specialist following his win at Ludlow last week despite the fact that he won a point to point over three. That point to point was actually run 17 seconds slower than the fastest race of the day and therefore did not represent a serious test of stamina. Under rules Enlightenment continues to look best at shorter trips.

At Ludlow Enlightnement was, as ever, keen to get on with things, and soon pulled his way up to dispute the lead at a strong pace. The pace he and the runner up PRESENTING COPPER (35) set was so strong the rest of the field were soon in trouble. But Enlightenment was always traveling smoothly and jumped very neatly. He looked to have a fight on his hands four out as Presenting Copper edged into the lead. But then that one blundered and it became evident from the way Enlightenment surged clear full of run that he would have scored anyway.

Many if not most of the best two mile chasers are best fresh. So it has to be significant that Enlightenment's five wins (including his point to point success) have all come off a break of at least five weeks since his last completed start.

I'm not convinced Enlightenment's trainer is right to say the horse needs fast ground. It was genuinely yielding here judged by race times and soft when he won well at Plumpton back in March. In any event he's useful, and should win more novice chases this term.

Presenting Copper ran fast for a novice chase mare and would have run faster but for that blunder four out. Like the winner she won an Irish point to point. The difference is that she won her point in very fast time, just a second slower than the fastest race, the Open. She also ran second in a two and a half mile Grade 2 novice hurdle a few weeks earlier, so clearly she can stay a lot further than the two miles she tried here. Against her own sex she looks capable of winning a valuable race, whether she stays over fences or reverts to hurdles.

RABBIT FIGHTER IMPROVES MASSIVELY OVER SIX

RABBIT FIGHTER (39) was thought good enough to run in Group company last year. And his trainer has long held a high opinion of him. But it wasn't until he was cut back to six furlongs at Kempton last week that we saw why. He chased a ferociously fast pace set by Willhewhiz and then sustained it to surge past him and power away for a wide margin success, breaking the course record in the process.

Rabbit Fighter won this off an official rating of only 60. He's actually Group class by my estimates. So it looks likely that he's going to set up a sequence of wins if he's kept going on the Poly.

TURKO CAN TAKE A GRADE 1

Sectional times show that TURKO (37) did something pretty darned remarkable when winning at Sandown last week. He reached the first fence on the far side in a time 7.7 seconds slower than Alfadora managed in the next race but ended up clocking a final time half a second faster.

Okay they omitted the Pond fence in Turko's race. But I think they lost as much time going around it as they would have by jumping it. And a fence only adds about 1.4 seconds to the time of a race anyway.

Last Winter Turko was the fastest novice chaser according to my speed ratings. His best rating was 41. I'm sure he would at least have equaled that here if they'd gone faster early. As it is the slow early pace enabled him to finish this contest strongly after jumping better than any of his rivals - barring one fence which he got too low at.

Turko is a narrow, light-framed sort, so it's not surprising he's best fresh. His form fits what I call the rest pattern. That is he's good for his first two starts off a long break but then needs a gap of at least five weeks between his completed starts in order to run well again.

It also looks clear that, like most horses which have needed breathing operations, Turko is not at his best on steeply undulating tracks like Cheltenham and Chepstow. He has won seven times out of eight when he's run to the rest pattern away from such courses - his sole loss coming when he had to be pulled up after one fence when going lame on his seasonal debut (almost certainly because he rapped himself).

If he were mine I'd be aiming Turko at either the Melling Chase or perhaps the Betfair Bowl at Aintree and deliberately skipping the Cheltenham Festival to keep him fresh for that meeting. In the meantime I'd be dropping him to two and a half miles next time to get an idea whether he's better over that trip or the three miles he ran at Sandown. My gut feel is that his best distance is two and a half miles because he showed such pace here and the slow early pace ensured his stamina wasn't tested.

Runner-up GLASKER MILL (34) is another that is best fresh. But unlike the winner he is undoubtedly going to be better over three miles plus. He won a very strongly run race over an extended three miles at Cheltenham on his previous start in near Gold Cup class time. But here he was caught flat-footed when the pace picked up on the far side. He was being scrubbed along all the way from the eleventh fence and was still flat to the boards rounding the home turn. Nonetheless his stamina pulled him up from last place to second entering the straight at which point Turko put in a burst of acceleration which he had no way of matching.

If he's rested beforehand I can easily see Glasker Mill placing in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Ideally he should only have one more run between now and then. And for me the obvious target just has to be the Pillar Properties Chase in late January. He'd have a serious shot in that on my ratings.

TWIST MAGIC WON'T WIN THE CHAMPION CHASE

The Tingle Creek was a rather odd contest this year. Normally it's run at a searching early pace. But this time around the field went a very ordinary gallop for a remarkably long way. In fact it wasn't until the second of the Railway fences, the ninth, that they really got going. They reached that jump 3.6 seconds slower than the leader in the novice chase had earlier on the same card. They then proceeded to cover the remaining six furlongs or so 6.2 seconds faster than the novices managed.

In the circumstances stamina was hardly at a premium. So it's perhaps not altogether surprising that the winner turned out to be TWIST MAGIC (39), a horse whose stamina on a galloping track had previously looked questionable.

Twist Magic had won a one mile, seven furlong hurdle in France. But in Britain, where, two miles is the minimum trip over jumps, his four wins had all come on tight tracks. He'd been beaten 29 lengths or more all four times he'd previously run on galloping courses in the UK. Yes he was bang there when tipping up in the Arkle. But his record strongly suggests he would have tired badly.

As I see it, Twist Magic is a short runner that needs a slow early pace or tight turns to last two miles. He was tiring towards the finish here, so the idea of him getting home up the hill in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham off the likely stronger pace looks fanciful to me.

I've always felt that VOY POR USTEDES (37) would have no problem stepping up to two and a half miles. So I don't think he was best suited by the mad dash over the last six furlongs. He kept tabs on the winner but ended up finishing just as tired as him. I think he's much better suited to a more strongly run race and would happily bet on him reversing the form with the winner on a galloping track in future.

The horse that was most disadvantaged by the quickening pace was undoubtedly MONET'S GARDEN (35). He was really floundering soon after the race began properly six furlongs out but then started picking up again on the run-in to take third.

I'm always going to be a bit hesitant about betting Monet's Garden when he has to travel down south. But he seems to be okay now that he's being shipped down on the morning of the race. So if, as seems likely, he makes his next start in that big race he won at Ascot last year, I'd be inclined to support him. He's probably the joint best two and a half mile chaser in training along with that other brilliant grey The Listener.

OVER THE CREEK LOOKS SCARY IN WELSH NATIONAL

Watching Tony McCoy ride OVER THE CREEK (36) to victory in a novice chase at Hereford last week made me curious. He seemed extraordinarily focused on ensuring that the horse had as easy a race as possible. It looked obvious that his connections had a big target in mind for the horse and McCoy was under instructions not to ask too much of the horse this time around.

Over The Creek was always cruising along. But it was remarkable to see Tony McCoy already take a look back over his shoulder as he led the field into the backstraight fully a mile from the finish. He took another look back entering the straight and decided to let his mount keep on coasting along in the lead. Then early on the run in he eased Over The Creek right up, shortening a twelve length winning margin down to just four at the line.

After the race there was a big plunge on Over The Creek for the Welsh National, so the question in my mind was quickly answered. McCoy was saving him for the big Chepstow contest.

Over The Creek displayed jumping problems when he was tried over fences last season. But he jumped really well here and has learned to fiddle his fences when meeting them wrong. He earned a speed rating of 40 from me a couple of seasons ago, and it looks clear he would have got close to that sort of rating or even equaled it if McCoy hadn't been so intent on winning the race as easily as possible.

I've already touted Boychuk as a good bet in the Welsh National. But I have to say Over The Creek now has me scared. The horse would have won three of the four times he's run 2m 6f or more if he hadn't tipped up with the race won on one occasion. His only real defeat at a longer trip came when he ran second at the Cheltenham Festival. He is clearly a high class staying chaser and will be running off a very light weight at Chepstow.

The only real concern I have about Over The Creek in regards to Chepstow is that he may be best fresh - and that this is another reason why McCoy was so determined to give him an easy race here. The horse's early record suggests this may be true, but he's strengthened up since, so we're just going to have to wait and see whether he still needs five weeks plus between his starts to run to his best.

COE IS A GREAT PROSPECT

You won't see many winners run greener than COE (37) did at Wetherby. This, long striding, staying chasing sort was always paying far too much attention to what was going on around him than he should have. His ears were constantly in motion, he dragged his back leg through several flights and dived across quite a few. He seemed to get a bit more focused when the race was on in earnest entering the straight. But once he'd put the runner up away he started to goof off again.

Clearly Coe needs a fair bit more experience before he'll realize his potential. But the fact that he could run so fast here despite his greenness is a testament to his ability. I see him developing into a useful staying chaser when he switches to fences. Meanwhile he's going to be tough to beat in three mile novice hurdles.

HOW GOOD IS QUICAYO?

You rarely see a horse clock a pattern class time in a race that's visibly slow run to halfway. But that's what QUICAYO (36) achieved when winning a decent introductory hurdle at Ayr. Always cruising along, even when the pace quickened, Quicayo was really nimble at the jumps. He found himself in front a little sooner than he wanted I suspect because once there he took on that goofy look that green horses do, his ears went this way and that and he began to ease himself up. He was still full of run but his jockey had to punch him out to ensure he kept going. Next time I imagine he'll try and delay his challenge longer.

Experience tells me that a horse will always better the time it clocked in race where the early pace was slow. So I would say that Quicayo has now become a candidate for some of the better novice hurdles.

Quicayo's dam Quila has had only one other foal to race. This is the top international performer Quijano. Quicayo looked as though he might also be very useful on the flat when running a half length second on his racecourse debut earlier this year. He pulled five lengths clear of the third and the winner went on to win three more times and run second in Listed company.

With this background Quicayo must have cost a fair bit of money. He flopped in five flat starts in Britain but has clearly found his métier over hurdles.

I think the factor that enabled Quijano to rack up ten wins in a row is his versatility. He can act on any going, over any course and show his face over a fairly wide range of distances whether the early pace is slow or fast. His brother Quicayo looks similarly inclined. He ran a big race on Hannover's tight nine furlong oval with a short run in on fast ground on his racecourse debut. He ran just as well on heavy ground here at Ayr, a much more galloping track with a half mile homestraight. And on his penultimate start he won at the very stiff Carlisle on much faster ground.

I'd be wary of opposing Quicayo next time whatever the conditions or opposition. He could easily be Cheltenham class.

Runner-up RIGHTWAY STAR (36) had difficulty jumping the hurdles at speed when the pace picked up. But he stayed on well and managed to get close to the winner despite never looking vaguely likely to get by him. He's a tall, deep-chested sort that surely needs at least two and a half miles to produce his best. He's a bit narrow at present but he's got time to fill out and already has the build to make a decent three mile novice chaser.

RING THE BOSS CAN WIN ANOTHER BIG HANDICAP HURDLE

RING THE BOSS (39) ran about as fast as you'll normally see a horse go in a handicap hurdle when taking the valuable Paddy Power sponsored race at Sandown last Saturday. He's clearly a very versatile horse, having now won five in a wide variety of circumstances. He's undoubtedly fast enough to win another big handicap hurdle.

BREEDSBREEZE (37) ran a very good race for a novice that needs longer to chase the winner home. He'd earned a bigger speed rating from me over longer when winning most impressively at Chepstow on his previous outing. When he steps up again in trip he's going to be tough to beat in novice company.

NUDGE AND NURDLE CAN RUN FASTER

NUDGE AND NURDLE (36) looked likely to run away with a valuable novice chase at Kelso as they headed towards the straight. This tall, long striding sort had always been cruising in behind the leaders. And even a mistake at the second last which cost him nearly two lengths didn't stop this. He brushed through the last but quickly cruised into the lead. However once in front he clearly decided he'd done enough and looked horribly green. His jockey had to ride him vigorously despite the fact that his mount was still obviously full of running. He ended up only barely hanging on in a photo.

Nudge And Nurdle had idled in front on his previous start too, allowing the second to cut what should have been a big winning margin to little more than a length on the run-in. Clearly he's rather a tricky ride. He's just too big and long striding to produce any real acceleration but it looks like he has to be brought to challenge really late. It may be that this explains why all his wins and best form to date have been on relatively tight tracks. It could be he sees too much daylight on big galloping courses and eases himself up just like he seems to when he hits the front. Then again Kelso's run-in is the second longest in the country and it does catch out plenty of horses.

It's really too early to say for sure though. All I can say right now is Nudge And Nurdle is a really good-bodied, tall, classy looking sort that looks capable of running faster than he did here.

Runner-up MR STRACHAN (36) had finished second to L'Antartique and Tidal Bay on his previous two chase starts and was desperately unlucky to come up against yet another high class prospect here. He'll surely win next time unless he's jumped up into pattern company.

ALFADORA IS WELL HANDICAPPED

ALFADORA (36) won in a time that indicates his official handicap rating is about two stone lower than it should be at Sandown. In a race run at a searching pace he was the only one to still be actually running halfway up the homestraight. He tired to a walk on the run in, but by that point everything else had almost stopped anyway, so he was able to come home by a wide margin.

Alfadora showed jumping problems after winning three chases in a row last season. But a switch back to hurdles secured two more wins and seemingly a boost in confidence. That said, I'd still prefer to bet him in a single figure field over fences as his record suggests he may have trouble jumping in a crowd.

MIGHTY MATTERS (30) had won his previous three starts by making a big move to break away from his rivals with four or five to jump. That turned out to be a bad idea this time because the early pace was ferocious - nearly eight seconds quicker to halfway than in the other race on the card over the same trip. Mighty Matters certainly looked all set for a four timer as he headed into the straight going strongly with a five length lead. But the effort of breaking away from his rivals off such a searching pace told and he tired up the hill.

I know that the connections of Mighty Matters believe he's better over 2m 4f to 2m 6f and this race will confirm them in that view. But I think the horse would just about have lasted home to win this off a more normal pace. So I'm not going to dismiss him out of hand over three miles in future, especially if it's on faster ground on an easier track in a smaller field where the early pace isn't likely to be as strong as it was here. He earned the biggest speed rating I've given him so far in exactly these circumstances at Huntingdon.

Clearly Mighty Matters has been kept to right-handed tracks recently for a reason. All his wins have been on such courses. Next time he runs on one I'd bet on him winning again. My gut feel from watching this is that he's better than he's shown so far and capable of winning a valuable handicap.

PATRICKSNINETEENTH STILL SMART ON SOFT GROUND

You don't often see a Grade 1 winner that's only had thirteen previous starts running off a mark of just 125. But that's the rating PATRICKSNINETEENTH (36) had when he scored at Kelso last week. He's actually ten years of age and his outings have been limited due to the fact that he's broken down twice.

Horses with leg problems invariably needs soft ground. Normally they can't produce their best on tracks with steep undulations either as they hit their forelegs too hard on the downhill sections. Patricksnineteenth certainly seems this way inclined. He's won all four of his completed starts on soft or heavy ground outside of tracks with pronounced undulations but has yet to score in nine other starts. The plan is apparently to exploit the fact that he's still a novice over hurdles by running him in a fixed brush event at Haydock next time. If he gets his ground there he'll be tough to beat.

I would not write off EVER PRESENT (20) who finished far back. It looked like he simply went off too fast. In fact he reached the eighth fence in a clear lead 5.3 seconds sooner than they did in the novice event won by Nudge And Nurdle earlier on the card. Ever Present has always been best fresh and still will be next time as this was his seasonal debut. I'd consider him carefully then, especially if he's in against a small field in which nothing looks likely to press him too hard for the early lead.

MARODIMA NOT THAT FAST

Okay MARODIMA (32) probably went off too fast in the Henry VII Novices' Chase at Sandown. But he still clocked a very poor time for the class and has still yet to earn a pattern class speed rating from me in thirteen tries. He's not that big and I think he's not that fast either.

CONFIDENTIALITY SHOULD RAID DEAUVILLE

CONFIDENTIALITY (37) stretched her unbeaten record on the Poly to four with a very easy win at Wolverhampton. She was going so well entering the short homestraight that rider Nicky Mackay felt confident enough to take a look around even though he was still a couple of lengths down. He merely had to shake her up for a few strides to pick up the leader and sprint clear by four lengths.

Confidentiality earned a pattern class speed rating from me for this win. And even with a big penalty her official rating will still be about two stone lower than it should be if my own ratings are any guide.

I'm not sure there's much point in Confidentiality continuing to shoot for the tiny prizes on offer for races such as those she's been running in. She's capable of earning black type unless I'm much mistaken. If she were mine I'd be looking at the two races that are each worth 58,000 Euros coming up on the Fibresand at Deauville on the 26th and the 28th. One is over 7.5 furlongs, the other over 9.5 furlongs. Okay she'd totally blow her handicap rating by winning one of those but the prize money surely makes it worth it.

INCHPAST IS GOING TO BE HARD TO BEAT ON THE POLY

I wrote up INCHPAST (37) here after he'd run a fast time to win a staying handicap at Wolverhampton recently. Now I need to mention him again because he's just gone and run a bit faster to win again over the same course and distance.

In his last race the gallop was strong all the way. This time around it was slow in the middle of the race which meant Inchpast had to run the final three furlongs a whole lot faster. It didn't seem to bother him one bit. He powered through to lead around the turn and ground the second placed UP IN ARMS (35) into submission by keeping up a relentless gallop all the way to the line.

Back in 2004/2005 Inchpast won six times in a series of nine races. Even after the penalty for his last run his official rating was still nearly a stone lower than it was back then which has made him eligible for this moderate contest. I suspect he's going to rack up another sequence of wins now that he's back to form and racing in such weak company. He looks to be the top stayer now racing on the AW.

Up In Arms has improved markedly since stepped up to two miles and looked like he was going to give the winner a real fight when upsides the winner just before entering the straight. It looked to me that he was fazed by the extremely powerful challenge that the winner threw down and that's why he ran around as the winner started to pull clear. If he hadn't run a bit green he'd have finished closer. He's only three and I think he's going to be winning better races than this.

HOBBS HILL DOES IT AGAIN

HOBBS HILL (39) has earned very big speed ratings from me several times and did so again to beat the very smart SILVERBURN (37) in a hot Grade 2 at Newbury last week.

Hobbs Hill is a giant of a horse who reminds me a fair bit of another giant called The Mighty Mac who I can recall seeing put in a similar round of smart jumping to win over two and a half miles at Newbury many years ago. Like The Mighty Mac I suspect Hobbs Hill is an out and out two and a half mile specialist. He seems to find two miles a bit short except on a very stiff track, and he didn't quite get 2m 6f when he was asked to run that far over hurdles.

Charlie Egerton's charge has been hard to keep sound and suffered episodes of bleeding in the past. He's rising nine and this was only his ninth career start. But he's now doing things that a horse that's still suffering from bleeding problems shouldn't be able to do. He's not needing rests between his runs. He's acting in testing ground and on steeply undulating courses. This being so I'd say Hobbs Hill is now in better shape than at any point in his career. I'd bet on him continuing to show this level of form if he's brought out again for that valuable novice chase over two and a half miles at Ascot later this month.

I do hope Hobbs Hill can be kept sound as he looks likely to develop into one of the best two and a half mile chasers we've seen in recent years.

SILVERBURN (37) was unlucky to come up against such a smart rival on his chasing debut. He was held up while moving and jumping well. Then, as the winner kicked on entering the straight, he was kicked into second place to cover the move. He kept trying to get to Hobbs Hill but became very tired from just before the last. He kept on willingly and only gave ground grudgingly, but it was clear the winner was going a good deal more strongly on the run-in.

You could argue that Silverburn blew up here through lack of fitness rather than stamina. But I'm beginning to wonder whether it's wise to assume he's going to be a three mile plus chaser like his brother Denman. After all, if the photo had gone his way on his racecourse debut he'd now be unbeaten in four starts at two miles. So far he's lost all four times he's gone longer and tired badly to get beat 127 lengths the only time he tried longer than two and a half. Yes I know he was staying on when fourth in the Ballymore Properties over 2m 5f at the Cheltenham Festival. But that race was run in slow time according to my speed ratings, so it wasn't a serious test of stamina.

IT'S TOO EARLY TO START RAVING ABOUT DENMAN

It's frustrating to speed ratings compilers like myself when the early pace of a big race is so slow it hurts the final time. There's no formula that can tell you how fast the winner would have run if the early pace had been stronger.

This is the case with DENMAN (33) who won a renewal of the Hennessy where the field did little more than hack along for the first ten fences. For comparison, if the two races had been run on the same going, Denman would have jumped the tenth fence in a time 6.4 seconds slower than the front runner in last year's Hennessy.

It's impossible to make up 6.4 seconds in the second half of even the longest race. Denman managed to make up 3.75 seconds, 0.8 of which came on the run in. Even so I don't think he achieved anything more than State Of Play did when winning the same race last year. After all, the runner up Dream Alliance (30) is a long way off Gold Cup class. In addition, although he finished stronger than State Of Play, Denman did begin to tire noticeably on the run to the last and had to be ridden pretty hard to keep going in the closing stages.

This is one of those situations where I have to differ strongly with those who make handicap ratings. They rate this performance one of the best by a steeplechaser in the last decade. I've yet to give Denman a speed rating better than 39 on my scale. That's Grade 1 for a novice chaser but doesn't buy you better than third or fourth place in an average Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Denman may well go on to run as fast as the handicappers now say he can. But until he does I'm going to oppose him when he tackles genuine Grade 1 chasers.

HARCHIBALD COULD YET WIN A CHAMPION HURDLE

If I hadn't seen HARCHIBALD (40) run before I'd be jumping up and down about his recent win in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle. He came through on a tight rein to take the race with any amount in hand. His jockey barely moved on him.

Of course, we all know that this is the way Harchibald has to be ridden. He finds nothing extra if his jockey tries to ride him out. Still it was a big performance on the clock and reminded us that Harchibald can run with anything.

It's interesting to note that Harchibald has lost the last six times he's run in Ireland but would have won the last five times he's run in Britain if the photo in the 2005 Champion Hurdle had gone his way. Actually I think this is simply due to the fact that the going in Britain tends to be faster which suits a horse with a serious turn of foot like Harchibald. In addition he's always fit for his UK runs while some of his Irish starts are just prep races. A better way to look at his form I think is to say that he has won six of the last seven times he's run on going faster than soft with a recent run.

Harchibald has run faster than this before. And I'd still be very wary of opposing him on anything but really soft ground when he's had a recent run.

Runner-up AL EILE (39) showed once more that he's a very smart horse when fresh, especially in a small field. No doubt he'll be rested soon and brought back for a shot at winning at the Aintree Festival for a fourth time. It will take a smart horse to stop him winning the Aintree Hurdle there.

WATCH OUT FOR KASBAH BLISS ON FASTER GROUND

Many observers were convinced that we saw the World Hurdle winner in the Grade 2 Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury last Saturday. And most of them will tell you it's the winner INGLIS DREVER (40). But while the old Champion is clearly as good as ever, I think that one of the horses which finished behind him at Newbury may end up taking his crown.

I'm talking about KASBAH BLISS (34), a horse that needs much faster ground to make his blistering turn of foot effective.

Check out the last two wins of Kasbah Bliss on www.youtube.com and you'll see what I mean about his turn of foot. First of all he finished really strongly to defeat dual French Champion Hurdler Zaiyad in a hot Grade 3 hurdle at Auteuil. Then he showed an extraordinary and sustained burst of acceleration to run away with an even hotter Auteuil Grade 3 while inflicting the only defeat in 19 French starts on the French Champion Mid Dancer.

It seems to me that Francois Doumen has found himself an able replacement for the mighty Baracouda and that Kasbah Bliss is the one they all have to beat in the World Hurdle if the ground is as fast as it normally is at the Festival.

KRUGUYROVA THE BEST MARE IN NH RACING

EDEN LINTY IS SMART

EDEN LINTY (38) put up her best performance so far when winning the Pertemps qualifier at Newbury. Always close up and moving well, she was still moving strongly at the finish in a race where her rivals looked really tired after three miles in mud.

Eden Linty would probably have won seven of her eight starts if she hadn't lost her rider on her debut and tipped up in the lead on another occasion. The way she won here made me think that she could have run a fair bit faster if pressed. That being so I'd say she has the mares final at Newbury at her mercy.

Eden Linty, like most mares, isn't that big. But I can see her being able to jump a fence in time. Meanwhile the fine turn of foot she showed here is surely going to make her hard to beat over hurdles. Indeed I'd like to see her have a shot at a Grade race against males, She's good enough to win a Grade 3 at least on this run.

MIKO DE BEAUCHENE (37) was scrubbed along from three quarters of a mile out but stayed on to chase the winner home. He looked and ran like what he is, a staying chaser. Obviously this was a prep for the Welsh National and he must have a real shot in that race. He seems best fresh and prefers soft ground and left-handed tracks.

BOOMSHAKALAKA A SMART NOVICE CHASER

BOOMSHAKALAKA (37) is a good looking chasing type that looks built for speed. He won impressively on his chasing debut at Kempton. He jumped boldly throughout and disputed the lead at a strong pace till going on himself from halfway. In fact he actually overjumped a few, standing way off and soaring through the air to clear some obstacles with feet to spare. But he was always accurate and never touched a twig. I suspect he was simply a bit spooked by Kempton's big black jumps which can be intimidating for a novice. He certainly warmed to his task and, after looking nervous before some of the very early fences, he showed no signs of apprehension thereafter and put in some spectacular leaps.

The speed that Boomshakalaka went here makes me suspect that, like many two and two and a half mile chasers, he takes a lot out of himself in a race and is going to need time between his runs to recover. His record bears this out so far. I'd bet on him being best on his first two runs and then needing five weeks plus between his completed starts thereafter, this being the norm for horses that are best fresh.

It is worth noting that Boomshakalaka has now won all three times he's run on tight tracks and lost all three times he's run on galloping ones. However I'm not yet ready to conclude he needs a tight track. I can easily see his bold jumping make him tough to beat around any course.

An impressive aspect of Boomshkalaka's performance is that he came under pressure as the field closed on him with three to jump. For about fifty yards it looked like he was in trouble. But then he seemed to get a second wind and began going so well again that his jockey was able to stop riding him from a hundred yards before the last which he jumped boldly before going on to win clearly.

Boomshakalaka won a hurdle race over 2m 3f and, seeing how well he stayed on here, I think he'll have no problem getting two and a half miles over fences.

Runner-up CALIDEO (36) couldn't go the early pace but closed to within a length or so of the winner with three to jump. When the winner kicked again he was left floundering but kept on well all the way to the line, looking like a horse that wants a good deal further than two miles.

Calideo's dam has produced two other foals to race; Calisson who won a Cross Country Chase in France over 2m 7f and Caliman who has won a 3m 3f hurdle in Britain. His sire, Video Rock has produced the Welsh National winner Edmond and the half length runner up in the Scottish National Nine de Sivola. Clearly there is oodles of stamina in Calideo's pedigree. He's bred for three miles plus and certainly ran like he wants three miles. I think it's only his efficient jumping that made it possible for him to run so well over two miles here.

The fact that he has now twice been able to run a pattern class time over two miles makes me suspect that Calideo might just be good enough for some of the better novice chases over three. Certainly when he steps up to two and a half miles plus next time, as he surely will, I'd be wary of opposing him.

LE BURF (35) ran a promising race. He was stretched into jumping errors at the first three and just couldn't go the fierce early gallop. In the early stages he was tailed off last by fifteen lengths plus but worked his way into contention on the final circuit. Approaching the second last he was level with Calideo and just a length off the winner, looking to be going well. But he hit the fence hard and lost momentum. His jockey clearly decided not to risk riding him into the last to keep him safe seeing how he'd been jumping. And he didn't push him that hard on the short run-in either once it became apparent he wasn't going to get by Calideo for second.

Le Burf is a good-bodied, proper chasing sort who could very well be up to pattern class over fences on this run. But he surely needs to go up to two and a half miles next time.

PAUILLAC WANTS LONGER

PAUILLAC (37) put up a very good display of jumping to win on his chasing debut at Lingfield. This tall, long striding sort was always moving well in a strongly run race and never touched a twig.

In the straight the runner up WILLIAM BONNEY (36) closed and managed to mount a brief challenge on the run-in. But within a few strides of being ridden along by jockey Tony McCoy Pauillac was going away again, ears pricked and still full of run. He looked like he would have been perfectly happy to go around again.

Pauillac is a tremendously good jumper for a novice but as trainer David Pipe noted 'all he does is gallop'. He looks to lack a turn of pace and will surely be vulnerable if he sticks to two miles, especially on good or faster ground. I rated this ground yielding to soft and note with interest that he had to be pulled up the only time he tackled fast ground (at the Cheltenham Festival).

Big, long striding sorts hit the ground hard, so I'd be wary of betting Pauillac on anything but genuinely yielding or softer ground. I'd also be inclined to oppose him at two miles in better company than this. He only ran so well because the searching pace and softish ground brought his stamina into play.

My gut feel is that Pauillac now wants three miles. But you can't jump horse up from to to three miles in one hit, so I'll be happy to see him go two and a half next time. If he does I'd be wary of opposing him

William Bonney also needs longer judged by the way he ran here. He was stretched by the pace into scrambling over a few of these jumps, especially early. And he had to be rousted along for a long way to close on the winner. The fact that he was able to do so and keep on despite being under pressure for so long strongly suggests that he'll do better over longer. And, as with the winner, I'm talking about three miles not two and a half.

BLACK HILLS USEFUL IN A SMALL FIELD

Horses that improve with sheepskin cheekpieces are often those that tend to be uncomfortable when racing in a crowd. The cheekpieces seem to provide some sort of psychological buffer that fools the horse into thinking there's something between them and the other runners.

I'd say this is the case with BLACK HILLS (37) who won in fast time at Kempton last week.

It was noticeable that Black Hills' jockey steered him to the centre of the course and appeared keen to give him a clear view of his fences. Approaching the eighth fence this suddenly became impossible as John Diamond went across and caused Black Hills to approach the fence boxed in by a crowd of runners. Black Hills didn't seem to like this at all because he blundered badly.

Black Hills was able to keep clear of the other runners thereafter approaching the fences but still didn't look entirely comfortable until Pole Star fell, taking out two other runners with three to jump, leaving Black Hills with just JOHN DIAMOND (36) for company up front.

Black Hills outstayed John Diamond in the closing stages and is clearly a very decent chaser around two and a half miles. However I'd be wary of betting him to reproduce this form in a bigger field and would prefer to bet him in chases with seven runners or less. If one photo had gone the other way he'd have won the last three times he's run in chases with seven runners or less. He was beaten 55 and 59 lengths the two times he ran over fences in really big fields.

JOHN DIAMOND (36) was going like the winner throughout and moved into the lead in the backstraight. Just before the straight it looked like he'd hold off the winner. But he stopped to nothing between the last two fences and flashed his tail when Tony McCoy tried to galvanize him into a renewed effort. He kept on as well as he could but was clearly really tired jumping the last and on the run in. It looked to me that he just didn't quite get home on the soft ground. His two previous wins have both been on a quicker surface. So he did well to run so fast over a trip that clearly taxed his stamina on soft ground.

With only a third of Britain's jump tracks being right-handed it has to be by intent that John Diamond has been kept to right-handed tracks for his last five runs. Clearly his connections feel he needs to go that way. The horse has now won both times he's run around two and a half miles on good ground, both times on dead flat right-handed courses. Next time he runs over this sort of trip again on genuinely yielding or faster ground again, most likely at Wincanton, Huntingdon or Kempton I'd bet on him improving in this effort. I certainly wouldn't want to bet him on a track with an uphill finish though, however fast the ground, seeing how he stopped here.

HARRYCONE LEWIS BACK TO BEST

Carl Llewellyn is rapidly building up an impressive record as a trainer. Almost every time I analyze his record I find that he's done exceptionally well in circumstances most trainers flounder in. This being so it should be no surprise that he has managed to bring HARRYCONE LEWIS (37) back to his very best for a runaway success in an amateur riders chase at Newbury.

Harrycone Lewis was always pressing or setting a strong pace here and cruised away from before the last to win this cozily. He has always been at this best on dead flat tracks like Newbury. And over fences he seems to need a single figure field to produce his best. When he meets these circumstances again I'd bet on him adding to this success.

OSCAR D'ANGRON SHOULD WIN SOON

I think that the way French jump ratings are converted to the British scale gives horses from across the Channel an edge when they run off their mark in UK handicaps. The current formula assumes that the best French jumper in recent years, Mid Dancer, only merits a rating of 169 compared to the 180 given to Moscow Flyer, the highest rated jumper in Britain or Ireland.

Certainly OSCAR D'ANGRON (37) looked a good deal better than the rating of 114 he ran off when narrowly losing a Newbury Novices handicap chase on his UK debut. He was always going well in a very strongly run race and I think he would have won if only he'd jumped better. He seemed to think that the fences were going to be a bit shorter and offer less resistance - no doubt because that's the way they were back in France. At seven of the jumps he skimmed pretty heavily through the top of the fences, bending the top of the birch back and costing himself momentum. Nonetheless he headed into the homestraight traveling strongly and with a lead of a few lengths. And he rallied, proving most persistent, when the winner THE HAIRY LEMON (37) passed him on the run in.

If the handicapper leaves Oscar D'Angron on the same mark it would make sense to exploit it by running him in another handicap next time as he's unlikely to come against such a smart rival as the winner in a 0-125 or lower grade contest.

Oscar D'Angron looked rather a classy sort here and it's interesting to note that he'd finished a close third to the Grade 3 winner Oh Cailin and multiple pattern placed Hairball on his last French run. I suspect he's going to be winning some decent races before long.

The Hairy Lemon, like many of the runners, was stretched by the strong pace Oscar D'Angron was setting or forcing in the early stages. But he worked his way through to move alongside the winner before the last and was clearly going better by then. His rider seemed intent on delaying his challenge till the last possible moment because The Hairy Lemon tends to idle in front. But Oscar D'Angron fought back hard when headed, so he never got left out in front too far.

The Hairy Lemon is clearly better over fences than he was over hurdles. And, seeing how he was stretched by the strong early pace and stayed on so well, I think the extended two and a quarter miles is going to prove the absolute minimum for him over the bigger jumps. I' like to see him step up to two and a half miles next time and can see him staying three. He's certainly good enough to win better races than this.

BIG BUCKS PROBABLY WANTS LONGER

I got the impression from watching BIG BUCK'S (37) and BARBERS SHOP (37) fight out the finish of a Newbury novice chase that each of their riders was trying to win the race cozily. Both were making their chasing debuts and would have won any normal event of this type easily. One of them had to lose but each finished the race out strongly and has a good deal of potential.

Barbers Shop is a big chasing sort that's already won a 2 mile 6 furlong hurdle, so there's little doubt he'll need longer than the 2m 1f of this race on anything except testing ground. Big Bucks is a bit more of a puzzle distance wise. He might just be an Arkle type. Certainly he ran fast enough to go close in an average Arkle when winning a 2m 2f hurdle by ten lengths at Auteuil back in March (earning a rating of 39 from me). On the other hand he's by Cadoudal whose progeny tend to need at least two and a half miles. In addition he's already won over that distance.

If he can run up to his French form, and that looks very likely, then Big Bucks is going to be competitive in Grade 1 novice chases. The question is 'over what distance?'

VENTURA A TOP CLASS FILLY

VENTURA (39) put up a tremendous performance to totally dominate a field of smart male rivals in a hot Listed race on Kempton's Polytrack. She produced an extraordinary burst of acceleration to open up a four length gap on her pursuers with about a furlong and a half to go and went on to win impressively.

Clearly trainer Amanda Perrett is right to say Ventura needs a fast surface. Horses with a serious turn of foot like Ventura showed here just can't produce it when there's cut in the ground.

Any thoughts of retiring Ventura must now surely be shelved. On this run she's going to be competitive in the big Group 1 races for fillies at a mile next year. Indeed on fast ground I'd think twice about betting anything to beat her.