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WOOLCOMBE FOLLY RUNS FASTER THAN MASTER MINDED AT EVERY
STAGE
WOOLCOMBE FOLLY (42) put up one of the most interesting
performances on the clock of the entire season when winning a good handicap
chase at Cheltenham. Carrying exactly the same weight and running over exactly
the same course and distance he ran a faster time.
At first I was inclined to believe there had been a shorter
run up to the first fence in his race or that the early pace had been a bit slow
in Master Minded's contest. But having timed every part of both races I found
that Woolcombe Folly ran the first half of his race a bit faster than Master
Minded and came home faster from there too. He also ran a half second quicker
from the second last to the finish.
There's no question that if the two horses had run together
Woolcombe Folly would have finished about three and a half lengths ahead.
You can argue that Master Minded won more comfortably and
could have pulled out extra if required. In fact my ratings say he'd have come
out slightly the better of the pair if he'd reproduced his seasonal debut
performance. But it's impossible to knock the merit of this performance.
Woolcombe Folly now has to rank right up there with Master Minded and Big Zeb at
the top of two mile chasing.
Woolcombe Folly traveled strongly, jumped well and picked
up in terrific fashion to beat a useful runner up six lengths, with the rest of
the field well beaten off. With Master Minded and Big Zeb unlikely to line up he
looks to have a real chance of winning the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury next
time.
If he were mine I'd actually be going straight to the
Champion Chase with Woolcombe Folly. I say this because he ran fast both here
and on his seasonal debut at Ascot. Fast two mile chases really take it out of a
horse. This is why the majority of top two mile chasers are best fresh. They
produce their top form on their first two completed starts each season and then
need at least five weeks between their completed starts thereafter to run as
well again. There's a bit less than five weeks between the Game Spirit and the
Champion Chase.
If Woolcombe Folly wins the Game Spirit Chase really easily
or the early pace is slow I may revise my opinion. But with Petit Robin set to
line up he will have a rival at Newbury that always sets a strong gallop and has
a big shot of beating him. This being so I'm inclined to think that Woolcombe
Folly won't be fresh enough to win the Champion Chase this year despite this
tremendous performance.
Runner up TANKS FOR THAT (39) ran a tremendous race, taking
up the running from halfway and showing real class and determination to pull 14
lengths clear of the rest as he tried to keep tabs on the winner.
Tanks For That is clearly best over two miles. Before this
he had been fresh like most good two mile chasers need to be in two races around
the minimum trip over jumps and won both times.
This was the first run of the season for Tanks For That so
he should be able to take one more run before he requires resting in the run up
to the Cheltenham Festival. With his official handicap marking understating his
ability by about twenty pounds his connections will surely opt to go for another
handicap next time. I wouldn't dream of opposing him if they do, as long as they
keep him to around two miles of course.
MASTER MINDED SLIPS BACK A BIT
It's hard to argue against the idea that MASTER MINDED (40)
ran below his best despite taking the Tingle Creek at Cheltenham. He ran
slightly slower at every stage than stablemate Woolcombe Folly did over the same
distance earlier on the card.
I formed the opinion when watching his seasonal debut
success at Ascot that Master Minded may well have developed more stamina with
age and that the longer distance of that race brought out the best in him.
It's easy to get locked into an idea but I think that
theory offers the best explanation for Master Minded's slightly sub-par
performance here. After all Master Minded looked vulnerable before his stamina
came into play here. Soon after the third last he had a lot of ground to make
up, at which point the leader Petit Robin was trading close to even money on
Betfair. You have to wonder whether he'd have been able to make up the leeway on
a less testing track, especially if Petit Robin hadn't been pressed into running
so fast early by I'm So Lucky.
We should get a much better idea of whether Master Minded
does indeed now need a greater test of stamina in his next outing the Victor
Chandler Chase at Ascot. That is run on a less testing track and quite often
features a relatively modest early pace. I'll be looking for something to bet
against Master Minded there.
PETIT ROBIN (36) drove the final nail in the coffin of the
idea that he can produce his best on a stiff track by tiring rather dramatically
into second place. He's now lost all seven times he's run on tracks with uphill
finishes. He's also tired both times tried two and a half miles. But over
shorter trips on dead flat tracks he's won five times out of six - his sole loss
being a very close second to the brilliant German chaser Fiepes Shuffle at
right-handed Kempton in a chase where he jumped left.
Trainer Nicky Henderson is surely right to say that Petit
Robin prefers to go left-handed and prefers flat tracks. For this reason he's
aiming him at the Game Spirit Chase next time out at Newbury. He'll be up
against the smart Woolcombe Folly there but I see him building up a big lead and
being tough to catch around the less testing track.
Petit Robin has always been a skinny, narrow, light-framed
horse. Nicky Henderson said a couple of years ago that he hoped he'd grow as he
got older and that he could well improve markedly if he did. This season he's
apparently 20 kilos heavier and did look a fair bit more robust and stronger to
me from the video. He'll almost certainly still need to be kept fresh to show
his best form, but be fresh at Newbury for the Game Spirit where he'll have a
major shot of scoring his first Grade 1 win.
SOMERSBY (36) moved well in the rear early but yet again
had trouble keeping up running down the hill before staying on strongly in the
closing stages. Indeed he was picking up ground hand over fist after the last
and very nearly caught Petit Robin.
I've noted in the past that Somersby's stamina for longer
trips looks suspect despite the fact he so often stays on over two miles. This
being so, and given the way he's lost ground coming down the hill all three
times he's run at Cheltenham, I don't think the 2m 5f Ryanair is a great target
for him. I'd be more interested in his chances at Aintree afterwards.
TIME FOR RUPERT TOUGH TO BEAT
TIME FOR RUPERT (40) put up a big performance to take a
novice chase at Cheltenham's big meeting last week, jumping well and powering
clear in the closing stages. The time he clocked for the last two miles of the
race after a relatively modest early gallop entitles him to a speed rating that
would win pretty much any Grade 1 novice chase. He thoroughly deserves to be
favourite for the RSA Chase and will be tough to beat in novice company.
I liked the way runner up CHICAGO GREY (37) rallied after
looking beaten. His trainer Gordon Elliot is clearly right to say he has a lot
of stamina. If he goes ahead with the plan to run him in the four mile National
Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival I'll be very interested in his chances.
MENORAH DOESN'T NEED A STRONG PACE AT CHELTENHAM
From a tactical point of view the International (formerly
Bula) Hurdle at Ascot was a very interesting affair. It featured the first
pacemaker I can recall being employed in jump racing in many years.
The pacemaker was Nicene Creed who was in the race to
ensure a strong gallop for MENORAH (37).
Unfortunately he other jockeys chose to ignore Tom O'Brien
on Nicene Creed. The result was a sprint finish from three out which was flat
out from the second last. So I doubt we'll see anyone else experiment with a
pacemaker in a jumps race again in the near future. This race made it clear that
over national hunt distances it's pretty safe for jockeys to ignore them.
It turned out that Menorah, who had been caught flat-footed
a couple of times in sprint finishes before, didn't need a strong gallop this
time. Cheltenham's steep uphill finish was enough to ensure he could pull back
his rivals. In fact he showed a much better turn of foot than any of them to
quickly blast nearly five lengths clear after taking the lead approaching the
last.
Thanks to the slow early pace I cannot award Menorah any
better than a Listed class speed rating for this win even when I take account of
the sprint finish. This means that the runners had plenty of gas left at the end
of the race and weren't able to utilise all their available energy.
Menorah has earned ratings as big as 42 from me in the past
and would almost certainly have done so again here if the early pace had been
stronger. He's unbeaten at Cheltenham and clearly has a real chance against
Binocular in the Champion Hurdle, though I'm surprised the bookies have him
ahead of his big rival in their betting. Binocular is a truly exceptional
Champion Hurdler on my ratings and Menorah will need to improve to match him.
Runner up CUE CARD (35) moved really strongly almost all
the way till getting outsprinted by the winner. He also ran a bit green in the
closing stages, looking a little clueless about what he should be doing.
The International Hurdle has been run since 1968 and no
horse has ever won it that hadn't run over hurdles the previous season, so Cue
Card did well to get so close here after just a couple of runs over hurdles.
I imagine that plans to run Cue Card in the Champion Hurdle
will now be scrapped. He's clearly a bit interesting for the Supreme Novices
but, seeing how he was goofing off in the closing stages here, I suspect he
needs a bit more experience before he's able to win such a competitive race as
that.
Third placed SILVINACO CONTI (35) had the most trouble of
the first three coping with the sprint finish. After moving strongly he had to
be ridden vigorously in an attempt to hold the lead he'd taken at the third
last. He got beaten off but was staying on really well from the last.
I was most surprised to hear after the race that Silviniaco
Conti is set to tackle another Champion Hurdle Trial next time before running in
the Champion Hurdle itself. I had thought this run was an experiment to see if
he could be effective over two miles. The experiment failed, so why isn't he
being stepped back up to two and a half miles?
I rather liked the run of CRISTAL BONUS (32) back in fifth
on his UK debut. He moved well all the way and kept on strongly over a trip that
is probably a bit short for him.
Three runs back in a thirteen runner Group 3 hurdle at
Auteuil Cristal Bonus raced in last in the early stages. Approaching the
straight he moved up briefly. But when it started getting crowded he backed
right off and dropped back to trail the second last horse by three or four
lengths. His jockey gave him several sharp reminders with the whip. Approaching
the straight he brought him wide to try and encourage him. But it was only in
the closing stages when the field spread out that he consented to run on and
take sixth. It looked like he was really not keen on getting involved in
traffic.
Next time out in the Grade 1 Prix Renaud du Vivier Cristal
Bonus worked his way forwards into second place approaching the home straight.
But he was unable to prevent himself being forced really wide turning in and
dropped all the way back to ninth. Once more he ran on up the straight to
re-take second. Again he clearly had trouble coping with the traffic in a twelve
runner contest.
Cristal Bonus did win a minor eighteen runner contest by
half a length. But he's lost the other five times he's run in fields of twelve
or more. He'd won all three times he'd run in smaller fields before this
promising run.
It's very common for hurdlers and flat racers to produce
their best form in fields of eleven or less. In fact it's the most common
performance pattern I know of. So the fact that Cristal Bonus seems shy of
traffic doesn't worry me particularly. This is a strong, good looking horse that
jumps well that would probably have won a Group 1 hurdle on his final French
start but for being forced wide.
In the long run Cristal Bonus has the physique for chasing.
Right now I'm going to be very interested in his chances next time out,
especially if he goes up a bit in distance.
KARABAK PROBABLY NEEDS BIG FIELDS
KARABAK (40) ran an interesting race when winning the
Relkeel Hurdle at Cheltenham. In a strongly run race he was always moving well
and looked set to power clear when taking the lead before the last as he was so
full of running. But he idled until runner up Any Given Day joined him on the
run in before kicking clear again when he had company to win with his ears
pricked. He was still traveling strongly passing the line and was obviously a
good deal better than his rivals.
Karabak has won three of the four times he's encountered a
bit of cut in the ground in fields of nine or more and ran a close second in the
Grade 1 Ballymore Properties in his sole loss. But he's run second three times
in eight runner races and also ran second in a nine runner contest where one
horse pulled up. It does seem clear he needs plenty of cover to produce his
best.
Karabak may not necessarily need a slow surface to show top
form. I reckon he could do so off a really strong pace as well. But that's not
often available in staying hurdles. In any event if it came up yielding or
softer in the World Hurdle I can see him improving markedly on his fourth in the
race last season.
Runner up ANY GIVEN DAY (39) has apparently strengthened
significantly since last season. He looked set to blow right on by Karabak at
one point after he'd made up a lot of ground to get upsides, but the winner was
clearly too good for him. Still he's perfectly capable of winning a Graded
hurdle over two and a half miles plus sometime in the near future.
LUSH LIFE WILL MAKE A USEFUL CHASER
LUSH LIFE (37) won a rather messy three mile hurdle in
which a slow early pace prompted a bunched finish at Cheltenham. He was always
close up and moving well but idled and wandered around after drawing level at
the last. He straightened up once reaching the rail and picked up strongly to
forge clear close home.
Lush Life is built for chasing but clearly has the pace to
do well in staying hurdles. It will be interesting to see what he can do in a
more truly run race. Rather well I suspect. I reckon he could win a Grade 2 or 3
event.
When he switches to fences I'd expect improvement from Lush
Life. He could well prove top class at that game.
DIAMOND HARRY NOW LOOKS MAIN THREAT TO IMPERIAL
COMMANDER IN GOLD CUP
The Hennessy Gold Cup is a remarkable race. Very often,
when the light weights are top class, the race is run in fantastic time. The
runners manage to sustain a two mile pace for three and a quarter miles.
That was certainly the case this year when DIAMOND HARRY
(45) clocked a remarkably fast time. He was less than a second off the course
record despite the fact that the rails were set far out, adding about 73 yards
to the distance. There's no question that he put up one of the best performances
on the clock by a chaser in recent years.
I concede that I do not adjust my speed ratings for weight
and that Diamond Harry clearly benefited from carrying the minimum weight of ten
stone. But he also had the disadvantage of sticking rather too close to a pace
that was rather too fast set by Hey Big Spender. His rider Daryl Jacob sensibly
let Hey Big Spender go when that one really kicked on down the far side on the
second circuit. But he still did really well to keep going so strongly in a race
run an unrelenting gallop.
Diamond Harry is a horse that tends to lose condition if
he's not kept fresh. This is almost certainly why he's lost at the last two
Cheltenham Festivals when he's arrived with four runs under his belt that season
both times. Trainer Nick Williams is going to avoid that same mistake this time
around by restricting Diamond Harry to just one more start before the Cheltenham
Gold Cup.
Diamond Harry is such a big, strong horse and kept going so
well at a furious pace that I'm inclined to believe he can run just as fast with
more weight on his back in the Gold Cup. I now see him as the main threat to
Imperial Commander in that race and wouldn't want to oppose him next time out.
The 16-1 the bookies are offering about his Cheltenham chances looks way too big
to me.
Runner up BURTON PORT (45) stayed on tremendously well to
take second. But I'm much less optimistic about his chances in the Cheltenham
Gold Cup.
For starters Burton Port is a small horse. The low weight
was therefore a much more important factor for him than it was for Diamond
Harry. I'm dubious about his chances of running this fast with 23 pounds more on
his back at Cheltenham.
In addition Burton Port was held back off the furious
gallop, so he was able to pace himself better in a race where they went
lopsidedly fast in the early stages.
Finally, and this is the clincher for me, the small stature
of Burton Port is always going to make him a dodgy proposition in big fields
where he has to fight for position against larger rivals. He did break his
maiden over hurdles in a big field. But that was in a weak race where he was
able to lead all the way and avoid traffic problems. Since then he's lost all
four times he's run in fields of 11 or more. In fields of ten or less his form
figures in races beyond two miles read 111121 with his sole loss being a second
place finish in the RSA Chase.
There are almost always more than ten runners in the
Cheltenham Gold Cup these days. And there surely will be this year with the
connections of many horse likely to be keen to take on the ageing Kauto Star and
Denman.
It seems to me that Burton Port's best shot of another
Grade 1 win will come at Aintree in the Totesport Bowl, a race that usually
attracts a small field. Even then I'm still a little dubious of his weight
carrying ability and want to see how fast he can run in a level weights contest
beforehand now that he's out of the novice ranks and competing in faster run
races.
DENMAN (40) ran a tremendous race under his big weight to
finish third. And I've little doubt he'd have finished five or six lengths
closer if he hadn't engaged in a taxing duel with Diamond Harry early in the
straight.
I still wonder whether Denman is quite the same horse he
was. After all, he won fourteen of his first fifteen starts, including four
Grade 1's but since returning from a near one year break due to a heart murmur
he has only taken one race out of eight. In addition he's lost the six Grade 1
and 2 events he's tackled since his heart problem. That said, I'd still see him
as a big player in any race he contests outside of the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
There I think he'll find it tough to turn last year's form around with Imperial
Commander and overcome the smart new generation of three mile chasers which now
include Diamond Harry.
Fourth placed THE TOTHER ONE (40) is a bit of a lumbering
oaf of a horse that often clambers over his fences when stretched as he was
here. But he seems to have almost bottomless stamina and stayed on really well
from far back. His record suggests that he's best on galloping tracks and when
fresh. So if he's aimed at the Grand National and given a break beforehand I'd
take his chances very seriously. He's got the ability needed to win that race
and matches the profile of past winners closely.
Sixth placed NICHE MARKET (40) is another obvious National
candidate. He is a hard horse to get fit according to new trainer Paul Nicholls.
So it was unfortunate he fell at halfway on his seasonal debut as that left him
without a proper prep for this race. It probably explains why he tired late
after picking up ground.
Niche Market has lost all fourteen times he's come into a
race off a break longer than 36 days since his last completed. Before this race
it had been 256 days since he completed the course.
CARRUTHERS (39) ran a great race in adverse circumstances
to finish sixth. He's a gung ho front runner that gets pressed to go too fast in
big fields. That was certainly the case here with Hey Big Spender setting a
tremendous pace,
So far Carruthers has run eight times in fields of eight or
less. He won five of those eight times and was a close second to old rival What
A Friend in two of his losses.
Four runs back Carruthers looked rather a good thing on
paper at Cheltenham in the Argento Chase as the field was small and the ground
soft. However he was never left alone up front by Madison Du Berlais and Joe
Lively and didn't seem to enjoy being pressured by that pair. Either that or he
is not at his best around Cheltenham, where he's yet to win in four tries. In
any event he kept on for second after a series of scrappy jumps while running a
bit below his best.
The next time Carruthers hits a field of eight or less I'd
be wary of opposing him. He's certainly capable of winning a Grade 1, especially
on softer ground which seems to bring out his very best.
TARANIS (38) had won all eight times he'd come into a race
off a break of 40 days or more since leaving France. But there had to be a
concern that he'd find the extended three and a quarter miles just beyond him in
such a strongly run race. And that did appear to be the case because he tired up
the straight. Back over a slightly shorter trip I've little doubt he'll be
winning another decent race when he's been freshened up.
WEIRD AL (32) is another horse that probably needs to be
freshened up before he can run to his best again. He moved well for a long way
here before tiring in the closing stages.
Before this loss Weird Al had won all five times he'd run
over hurdles and fences in a wide variety of circumstances. He'd been able to
score on fast and soft ground, around tight tracks and galloping ones and over
two and a half and three miles.
I liked the way Weird Al was able to win after dueling with
the smart Knockara Beau in a Grade 2 where they rapidly pulled clear of their
pursuers two runs back. I also liked the way he was able to win a sprint finish
the previous time against the very pacey Pigeon Island.
The major worry today was that he was legless in the
closing stages last time when just getting up in a slow motion finish to dead
heat with subsequent Paddy Power Gold Cup winner Little Josh at Carlisle.
It was especially worrying to note that the Racing Post
reporter said Weird Al looked distressed in the unsaddling enclosure after that
race. I say this because it was a similar story after he'd won on his hurdling
debut where he actually needed to be given oxygen he was in such a bad way.
The only win Weird Al has scored that wasn't preceded by a
break of at least eight weeks was in a very slow run race on his second start
last season where they were only going at racing pace for the last half mile.
He'd needed a one year break after his hurdling debut win when he'd finished
distressed before.
Weird Al looks to have any amount of ability. As long as
he's rested he should be able to win something decent this season.
It was most unfortunate that the connections of PANDORAMA
were suckered into running their horse on unsuitably fast ground by the
misleading official going report. Trainer Noel Meade had pulled him out of
several races previously when he felt the ground was too fast and surely would
have done so again here if only he'd known how firm it actually was. This being
so it was probably a blessing in disguise that Pandorama got hampered and had to
be pulled up early in the race. He apparently returned sound and could go for
the Lexus over Christmas where I'd fancy his chances if it came up soft as it
usually does.
HEY BIG SPENDER went off a little bit too fast in front. He
was asked to go kick on down the far side, using up a lot of energy, and kept
going strongly for a long way. But he couldn't quite sustain the effort and fell
away up the straight before falling through tiredness at the last.
Hey Big Spender is a big, long striding sort. So it's not
surprising he seems to dislike tight courses. He's lost all six times he's run
on tight courses, including when putting in his worst ever lifetime start to get
beat 69 lengths at Aintree last year
He's done far better around great big galloping courses. In
fact if he hadn't twice bumped into the top class Inchidaly Rock and run second
he would have won all six times he'd completed the course on such tracks over
two and a half miles plus before this loss.
Hey Big Spender was on his way to running another big race
when tipping up in the Jewson at Cheltenham in March.
Trainer Colin Tizzard said before his seasonal debut he
wanted to find a small field for Hey Big Spender to build his confidence back
up, mentioning this race several weeks ago as a possibility, most likely because
he's aware that the fences at Carlisle are so easy. They've claimed a lower
percentage of fallers than any chase track in Britain or Ireland over the last
fifteen years, lower even than some hurdle courses (e.g. Cheltenham and
Newbury). Despite the fall this run seemed to show that Hey Big Spender can now
jump well at speed.
I'd like to see Hey Big Spender given a break to recover
from what must have been an exhausting effort here. If he is I'll be very
interested in his chances next time out, assuming he runs on a galloping course.
FINIAN'S RAINBOW A TOP CLASS TWO MILE CHASER
FINIAN'S RAINBOW (41) clocked a seriously fast time to win
on his chasing debut at Newbury. I've given him a rating equal to the one I
awarded Noble Prince for his spectacularly fast win at Punchestown a few weeks
back.
The fast time was due to the fact that Sang Bleu took
Finian's Rainbow on up front at a scorching pace.
Jockey Barry Geraghty shrewdly realised he couldn't keep
going at such a strong pace for the full distance and got a breather into
Finian's Rainbow for about half a mile starting down the far side. When he asked
his mount to pick up again in the straight he soon had Sang Bleu in trouble and
kept going strongly to score by a dozen lengths from Hell's Bay who attempted a
rally but could never get close enough to land a blow.
I'd prefer to see Finian's Rainbow given at least five
weeks off after such a fast race, seeing that all his wins to date have followed
even longer rests. Like most top class two mile chasers he does seem best fresh.
So far Finian's Rainbow has won all four times he's run 2m
3.5f or less. He'll probably remain unbeaten until the Arkle which I suspect
will be his first real test.
HELL'S BAY (36) has already won over three and a quarter
miles and lacked the pace to keep up with the two trailblazers early. His
stamina was coming into play late in the race but clearly he needs to go back up
significantly in distance.
SANG BLEU (23) paid the price for taking on Finian's
Rainbow at a pace he could not sustain. My thinking is that he was the second
best horse in the race. It could well be he needs a tighter track to last home
as he's won all three times he's run around tracks 12f or less in circumference
since losing on his racecourse debut.
AIGLE D'OR ANOTHER ARKLE PROSPECT FOR HENDERSON
Last Thursday Nicky Henderson unveiled a serious Arkle
prospect in Finian's Rainbow at Newbury. The very next day he produced another
one when AIGLE D'OR (40) ran just a fifth of a second slower to take a valuable
handicap chase over the same course and distance. His official time was actually
3.4 seconds faster, but that's only because there was a much shorter run up to
the first fence in his race. From the first fence to the finish he was a fifth
of a second slower.
Apart from one blunder four out Aigle D'Or jumped fast and
well. Even with a big penalty for this win his official handicap mark will still
be understating his ability by a big margin.
The question is whether Aigle D'Or will be able to hold his
form. So far he hasn't managed to win or produce anything like his best beyond
his first two runs of the season. But that was before his connections had
figured out he's best over two miles. If he follows the profile of a typical
high class two mile chaser he'll be able to produce his best beyond his second
start of the season if he's rested for at least five weeks between runs.
I imagine Aigle D'or will be shooting for another valuable
two mile handicap chase next time to take advantage of his lenient mark.
Thereafter I'd like to see him rested and brought back for the Arkle. The Red
Rum Chase would be another tempting Spring target, and he'd be able to fit in
another run or two before then since it's staged later on.
Runner up MATUHI (38) kept on trying and ran a big race.
He's going to be a little hard to place right now as he seems to be a fast
ground performer.
AITEEN THRITYTHREE PROBABLY NEEDS GOOD GROUND
AITEEN THIRTY THREE (36) ran like a very good horse for
most of the Grade 2 Worcester Novices Chase. He dueled with the smart but sadly
ill-fated Tell Massini from the end of the far side and the pair quickly pulled
clear. But he then started to tire in the closing stages and ended up winning
clearly but in slower time than had earlier looked likely.
Race times suggest the going was only just good on the
chase course. And my suspicion is that it was only barely fast enough for Aiteen
Thirty Three. He's now won all three times he's run on genuinely good or faster
ground and lost all three times he hasn't.
My feeling is that Aiteen Thirty Three would have kept
going for longer on faster ground and run a representative time for the class. I
can see him getting bogged down in softer ground a couple of times in his next
few starts. But when the ground firms up again in the Spring he's going to be
interesting at one of the Festivals. My thinking at this stage is that trainer
Paul Nicholls was right to voice
doubts about the RSA Chase being ideal for him and that Aintree will be better
for him this time around. I think he might not get home up that steep final hill
in top class company at this stage of his development.
STARLUCK LOOKING GOOD FOR CHRISTMAS HURDLE
In recent years there have been eleven renewals of the
Fighting Fifth where one or more horses had fewer than ten previous hurdle
starts and earned a Racing Post rating bigger than 155, Eight of those eleven
times one of those horses won (from a total of sixteen tries).
PEDDLERS CROSS (41) was the only horse in this year's line
up to match this profile and duly won. But his success a good deal to a very
smart tactical ride from his jockey Jason Maguire.
With three to jump Maguire seemed to realise that the early
pace had not been that strong and that his mount probably had enough left to
sprint home from there. So he kicked on and Peddlers Cross duly picked up
strongly and was indeed able to run at top speed all the way to the finish. He
actually got home from the third last in just 53.6 seconds compared to the 58.3
seconds Tocca Ferro managed in the Gerry Feilden hurdle on the same card.
At the third last Peddlers Cross was two and a half lengths
ahead of Binocular and three in front of Starluck. Giving a rival that kind of
head start in a sprint finish is a big disadvantage.
BINOCULAR (38) actually managed to get upsides by the last
jump, but the effort of doing so plus lack of fitness took its toll and he fell
back to third, not being given a hard time of things on the run in.
The big objective for Binocular is clearly a second win in
the Champion Hurdle. And I've little doubt Nicky Henderson will train him to
peak once more for the big day. He's run considerably quicker than Peddlers
Cross in the past so I don't see much chance of the winner confirming this form
in March. Indeed Peddlers Cross is more of a two and a half mile plus chasing
sort than a two mile hurdler physically, so I can't see him improving the amount
needed to be a serious threat to Binocular in the Champion Hurdle.
Runner up STARLUCK (41) moved smoothly throughout and
looked to be going best turning in. However he couldn't quite close the gap in
the sprint finish and went under by a length and a quarter. If he meets the
winner again I'd be inclined to bet him to turn this form around.
Like a lot of horses Starluck seems to be good for his
first two runs of the season but then needs a break of at least five weeks to
run well again. If three very close finishes had gone his way Starluck would
have won nine of the eleven times he's been fresh in this way. He'll still be
fresh next time as this was his seasonal debut. So he looks a very good
proposition for the Christmas Hurdle next time.
I'm not sure that Starluck is big enough to cope well with
the hustle and bustle of the Champion Hurdle. It could well be that he's best
suited to smaller fields as well as flatter and tighter tracks. However it would
be interesting to see how well he'd do if he were rested after his next start
and brought to Cheltenham fresh.
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