DEE EE WILLIAMS IS TOP CLASS

Nick Gifford, the trainer of DEE EE WILLIAMS (39), is not a trainer who normally hypes his horses. So the fact that he says things such as "you dream about horses like this" and "nothing can get him off the bridle at home" when discussing the runner up in last week's big novice hurdle at Ascot looks highly significant.

Dee Ee Williams is a good bodied, chasing sort that won three of his four starts before Ascot despite running green. His only loss came in a slow run Bumper on a tight track on fast ground where he was caught out by trying to come from well off the pace in a contest that developed into a sprint finish.

On his start before Ascot Dee Ee Williams was again clearly unsuited to the pace quickening up markedly. But he lost no ground and eventually came from the back to pick up the leaders despite dragging his back legs through two out and losing a lot of momentum. The way he got by a leader that was still moving strongly on the run in showed serious class.

At Ascot, the pace set by habitual front runner GOLAN WAY (37) was reasonable enough. But they reached the fifth, just after halfway, 2.7 seconds later than they did in the big handicap hurdle the next day. As a result the field were able to nearly sprint home from two out, just two fifths of a second slower than Champion Hurdle favourite Binocular managed off a much slower early pace the next day.

The way the race was run clearly did not suit Dee Ee Williams. He wasted energy by pulling early on. And he just doesn't have the physique to sprint home on fast ground. Nonetheless he got himself into the lead at the business end of the race only to run a bit green and idle in front before being joined and then done for speed by the much more pacey MEDERMIT (39).

It's hard not to agree with Nick Gifford that Dee Ee Williams is a top class prospect. The horse has any amount of ability. It's also clear that Gifford is right to say Dee Ee Williams needs a flat out, end to end gallop to produce his best form. This isn't simply because he's a three mile chasing sort that needs a strong pace to make a two mile race a sufficient test of stamina. It's also because he tends to pull hard if the early pace is too slow.

I don't envy the decision that Gifford will need to make about Dee Ee Williams in the near future. He has to figure out whether to keep the horse to two miles to ensure he gets the strong pace he needs. Or he has to bite the bullet, step him up to two and a half miles plus and hope that he learns to settle well enough to last home over the longer distances he's clearly crying out for.

In the meantime Dee Ee Williams is clearly the one they all have to beat in the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown where softer ground and a stronger pace would surely make him almost unbeatable.

Medermit is clearly a smart horse. He moved well in the rear all the way and picked up strongly to join then outsprint the runner up in the closing stages. He's a much more compact and speedy sort than Dee Ee Williams. But I can see him jumping a fence in time. Indeed he has already won over fixed brush hurdles in France. What's more five of his six sibling that were old enough to run over jumps have done so. Four of the five went chasing and one of them won a race over half a furlong short of two and three quarter miles over fences.

It does seem that Medermit is a stuffy horse. After all he has won all three times he's had a vaguely recent race and lost all three times he's come into a race off a lay-off. I'd also conjecture that he's more of a prospect for the Aintree rather than the Cheltenham Festival. I say this because he looks more of a nippy type than a grinder. Plus it looks significant that his one poor UK effort came the only time he tackled a stiff track at Exeter.

I suspect that third placed WENDEL (37) could have done with softer ground as he looked stretched when the pace picked up and couldn't go with the first two in the closing stages. He's clearly a useful sort. But race times indicate the going was good here and his previous wins had come on Fibresand and soft ground. His sire and dam won big races on soft ground too. Back on a slower surface he's surely going to win something decent.

Golan Way's limitations seemed to be exposed here. He's not that big and does look rather unlikely to make much of an impression at the Cheltenham Festival. But he clearly has loads of pace and a willing attitude. I can see him winning again in pattern company.

Further back in the field DOOR BOY (34) ran a promising race. He moved really well briefly approaching the straight and was switched to try and make a run at the leaders. But he floundered as the sprint for home began on the quick surface. He won a point to point over three miles and his hurdle win came over the longest trip he's tried over timber - the extended 2m 6f at Kelso. Clearly the two miles here on fast ground was not enough of a stamina test for him. Back over longer he might just prove to be a candidate for something like the Spa Hurdle.

SHAMARI (32) is another that seemed unhappy with the sprint finish and fast ground. He's a proper chasing sort and was totally floundering up the straight. He hosed up on heavy ground in France and scored his hurdles win on similar going at Taunton. Back on softer going, especially over longer, I see him as a good prospect.

BINOCULAR'S WIN TOLD US NOTHING NEW

I don't really understand why BINOCULAR (41) was shortened up in price for the Champion Hurdle after his admittedly impressive win in the Boylesports.com International Hurdle at Ascot. We already know that he can outsprint almost any hurdler on fast ground off a slow early pace. So the way the race was run played to his strengths. So far the only evidence for how he'll fare in a more competitive race is his second place finish in last year's Supreme Novices - an effort that would not win him a Champion Hurdle.

They reached the fifth, just after halfway, in the big Ascot Hurdle 4.9 seconds later than they did in the handicap hurdle on the same card. So it's hardly surprising Binocular was able to outpace his rivals up Ascot's relatively short homestraight. He has a better finishing kick than any hurdler now racing barring perhaps Jered. I'm still dubious about how he'll do in the Champion Hurdle where the faster early pace and much bigger field may well not suit him. It's certainly going to take much more than the short, sharp burst of speed he produced here to win that race.

Runner up CELESTIAL HALO (39) is a tall, deep chested sort with a really long stride that would surely have no problem going three miles. He was allowed to bowl along in a clear lead as usual by Ruby Walsh. But he basically blew his own chances by setting too slow a pace. If he'd gone the same early pace they ran in the handicap hurdle and his rivals had kept to the speed he'd have been around thirty lengths clear just after halfway instead of ten. Seeing how well he stays I rather fancy he'd have held on to score. As it was he simply couldn't contain Binocular who totally outpaced him in the closing stages.

Celestial Halo jumped boldly and accurately here. He has the physique for chasing and looks an interesting prospect for the bigger jumps long term. Meanwhile he's probably going to have a tough time over hurdles this season as it's tough for horses as young as him to beat older rivals in the top staying races over timber. And if he sticks to shorter trips he's surely going to get outpaced unless he hits much softer ground or sets a far stronger early pace than he did here.

Still, he's an admirable horse with loads of ability and stamina. I think it will pay to forgive him if he loses a whole bunch of races this season as he's going to be running in highly unfavourable circumstances. Next term over longer trips or in chases he'll surely come into his own.

Third placed CHOMBA WOMBA (33) disappeared from the Champion Hurdle radar screen with this run. She got badly outpaced as the sprint began and only chugged on late to take a distant third. Clearly she needs to go back up in trip to two and a half miles and is not effective over two unless the ground is soft or the early pace is very strong.

Champion Hurdler KATCHIT (32) also floundered in the sprint up the straight. Clearly he's just not suited to tactical races produced small fields. So it makes sense to put him away now and bring him back for another crack at the big race in March.

It's worth bearing in mind that Katchit has won all seven hurdle races that he's contested with ten runners or more and lost. In addition the last three horses that won the Champion Hurdle at four like he did all went on to repeat their win in the big race the next year. This being so, the 12-1 now being offered by the bookies about his chances at Cheltenham does look rather too big.

CRACK AWAY JACK (31) ran way below his best to finish last. It's beginning to look like he's best when fresh. So the trainer's plan to rest him now looks like a good one.

NUMIDE SHOULD GO FOR CHAMPION HURDLE

After he'd won in fast time at Cheltenham last month I conjectured that NUMIDE (36) might well be able to act on fast ground. He proved me right when running an unlucky fourth in the valuable Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot on ground that race times indicate was good.

I'm convinced that Numide only seems to like soft ground because it causes the runners to spread out over a larger distance of ground. He 'dislikes the company of other horses' according to his former French trainer. For this reason his best form in France came in very small fields. Over the longer distances of hurdle races he's been able to win in big fields when the ground has been soft enough to open up big gaps for him to take. Now though, after this run, I foresee the possibility of him winning in big fields over jumps even on fast ground.

Jockey Jamie Moore kept Numide right at the back early on as usual. But, thanks to the relatively fast ground and to the fact the field declined to chase two tearaway pacemakers, Numide found himself facing a huge wall of horses approaching the homestraight. Rather than trying to find a way through them as he surely would have on another horse, Moore sensibly allowed Numide to swing eight wide to go around everything taking the home turn. As a result he allowed his mount to see nothing but clear daylight which encouraged him to move forward with a powerful surge to challenge for the lead at the last jump. Unfortunately Numide misjudged it completely, pitched badly on landing and lost a lot of momentum.

It's hard to say whether Numide would have won if he hadn't blundered at the last. Most observers feel he wasn't going quite as well as the winner SENTRY DUTY (39). But he'd run slightly faster than that one last time by my estimates and has shown himself to be a very determined customer indeed in the closing stages. So I'm open to the idea that he may have got up.

It may seem crazy to suggest that a horse which has just got beat over six lengths off an official mark of just 132 in a handicap should go for the Champion Hurdle. But that, I believe, is the right way forward with Numide. He ran close in the French Derby on the flat and has run fast enough to beat some of the top hurdlers over timber. As I see it, he is not responsible for his ludicrously lenient handicap mark. All it does is dictate his path towards Cheltenham. Clearly he has to be aimed at more big handicap hurdles. Off his current rating he'd be a good thing to take one on soft ground. And even on a quicker surface he'd be a major threat if ridden as cleverly as he was at Ascot.

The winner Sentry Duty is a light-framed horse that needs to be fresh and racing on fast ground. He's hard to beat when he gets his conditions. But his trainer, Nicky Henderson knows to space out his races and restrict him to fast ground, so his prospects look good.

BELCANTISTA (38) ran a big race on his first start for J P McManus, very nearly landing a huge ante-post gamble. This run showed that the novice is a solid Grade 3 class performer.

SONGE (38) ran his best ever race to take third. He burst a blood vessel on much softer ground last time. It looks like he shares the preferences of most horses that bleed in preferring faster surfaces, less testing tracks and being kept fresh.

BOOMSHAKALAKA SHOULD WIN SOON

I really liked the way that BOOMSHAKALAKA (36) ran in a red hot two mile handicap chase at Ascot last week. Previously I figured that he stayed further.

The mistake that I made is assuming that Boomshakalaka actually stays two and a half miles plus because he won over 2m 4f and 110 yards at Kempton on Boxing day. I should have realised that race was no guide because, like many novice chases, it was run at a slow pace.

Ignore that race and suddenly Boomshakalaka's record gets a whole lot easier to understand. He has lost the other six races which demanded real stamina - i.e. those over two and a half mile plus or ones run in soft or heavy ground. But over shorter trips his record has been brilliant.

At Ascot Boomshakalaka was unable to dominate from the front as he has before due to the searching early pace. But he settled happily and kept on strongly to finish a good third in a big field. My feeling from watching him is that he'd have done far better in a smaller field at a park course like Kempton or Sandown where he could bowl along in the lead and win the race with his bold jumping. He doesn't have much in the way of a finishing kick, so I think he's best ridden that way.

Like most good two milers, Boomshakalaka seems best when fresh. So I'd like to see him given a break of at least five weeks following this run. If he's brought back over two miles at Sandown or Kempton in a small field I'd really fancy his chances.

The winner MASER MEDIC (39) is a smart novice who would almost certainly need a longer trip in a race where the early pace wasn't so strong. He's now won three in a row and is highly regarded by connections. However it has to be significant that he jumped right the only time he was tried on anything but a right-handed track in eight lifetime starts. He won that day but it was at Fontwell where the final turn on the figure of eight course is taken right-handed. This has to temper enthusiasm for his chances of taking the Jewson at left-handed Cheltenham. He's certainly fast enough to win that race. But his best prospect of a win at the top level will surely come in the Scilly Isle Novices Chase at Sandown or later on at the Punchestown Festival. Both tracks of course are right handed.

ONEWAY (37) showed his best form in ages to take second. But the old boy hasn't won since 2005. I rather suspect that the unusually fast early pace was responsible for reviving his form. I've seen this happen before with quite a few veteran chasers. They lose pace and gain strength with age and occasionally run big when their younger rivals tire due to a testing pace.

DEEP PURPLE TOUGH TO BEAT IN SMALL FIELDS

DEEP PURPLE (34) won the Grade 2 Noel Novices' Chase at Ascot in good style. He can run a fair bit faster off a stronger early pace. But I believe he is best in small fields like the one he met at Ascot. He has now won al six times that he's run in single figure fields. He won a ten runner maiden hurdle where only nine finished. But since then he's lost all three times he's tackled races with ten runners or more. This being so the big market move for him in the Arkle following the race doesn't look justified. Fast as he is, I think he's best dominating smaller fields than normally line up for the big Cheltenham race.

PUNCHESTOWNS PROVES HIS CLASS

PUNCHESTOWNS (41) won the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot in seriously fast time. In doing so he proved that he can act on good ground. So he probably deserves to be favourite for the World Hurdle. He certainly has a lot of ability as he won this race comfortably from a strong field. I'm going to be wary of opposing him in future. But I have to say I rather hope he fails at Cheltenham because this will surely prompt his connections to send him chasing, and that will undoubtedly be his game in the long run.

IS MONET'S GARDEN AS GOOD AS HE WAS?

When MONET'S GARDEN (39) beat Kauto Star at Aintree on his seasonal debut last season he seemed to have the world at his feet. He'd won the last two Grade 1 chases he'd contested and just defeated one of the best chasers in recent years.

This being so it was surprising that Monet's Garden then proceeded to lose five times in a row.

I can see how you could excuse all those defeats. You can argue that Monet's Garden lost his sixth and third last starts because the distance was too short. He lost his fourth last start because the distance was too long. He lost his fifth last start because he was up against a brilliant rival. And he lost his latest outing before last week's Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon because he's somehow changed as he's gotten older and now needs his seasonal debut.

If Monet's Garden had lost the Peterborough Chase I'd have been inclined to say he was past his best. But he went and won. So now we need to figure out whether he can improve further all the way back to his very best.

That string of losses, the way he only scrambled home narrowly at Huntingdon and the fact that he'll soon be eleven years old all persuade me that Monet's Garden is not going to progress beyond the level of this win. In other words when he steps back up to Grade 1 company he'll be fund wanting.

Runner up SNOOPY LOOPY (39) has done really well this season for a horse that's only a bit better than Grade 3 class on my ratings. He's reached the first three in a bunch of big races and is now on target to win the BHA Order Of Merit.

I confess that the so-called 'Order Of Merit' is one of my pet hates. The crazy points system for this scheme ensures that it will almost always go to a Listed/Grade 3 horse that's consistent enough to rack up a string of places in decent company while rarely winning. As I see it the best horses are the ones that should win the big awards, not the ones that race most often.

Third placed MISTER MCGOLDRICK (37) seemed to enjoy the scorching pace set by the first two, just as he had when winning another very strongly run race at last year's Cheltenham Festival.

Until he won at last year's Cheltenham Festival Mister McGoldrick seemed a pretty easy horse to predict. He'd won ten of the fifteen times he'd run at Ayr or Wetherby since his novice days and lost all 36 times he'd run elsewhere.

I can only conclude that the furious early pace of this contest and the Racing Post Plate aided Mister McGoldrick in some way as normally he seems to have reverted to a dislike of anything but his two favourite, dead flat, left-handed courses.

Mister McGoldrick seems as good as ever. So he has to be worth betting the next time he runs at Ayr or Wetherby. That said, he hasn't won over two miles in a long time. So if he goes for the Castleford Chase at Wetherby over Christmas he may find his rivals going a bit fast for him unless the going is really soft.

NATAL unseated his rider at the fifth when close up and moving well. He continued riderless to finish the race close to the first two. I suspect he would have run really well if he hadn't got rid of his jockey because he has such a good record on dead flat tracks like Huntingdon.

So far Natal has won ten of his twelve completed starts on dead flat courses. The next time he runs on one I'll be very interested in his chances.

MY WAY DE SOLZEN eventually had to be pulled up. But I think his jockey, Robert Thornton, was wrong to tell the Stewards his mount was never traveling. There were actually a couple of points during the race where he closed up and moved strongly. It was only from the second last on the far side that he was beaten off and retreated.

Seeing how well he ran in snatches here convinces me that my theory about My Way De Solzen preferring undulating courses is right. Since stepping up to pattern company My Way De Solzen has won seven times out of ten on tracks that the Racing Post describe as undulating. On other courses his sole win in eleven tries in Listed and Graded races was in a nothing contest where he had over 30 pounds in hand of official figures and started at six to one on.

POSSOL GETS INTERESTING FOR WELSH NATIONAL

MON MOME (40) produced his very best form to win, having race prominently and moved strongly throughout. He had his ears pricked on the run in and was clearly still full of run but seemed disinclined to fully extend himself. This surely explains why he was scoring for the first time in fifteen tries outside of novice company.

Clearly Mon Mome is a smart staying chaser when he has some cut in the ground. But, having seen the way he ran here, I'm not sure I'd want to trust him in future. The exception for me would be a race over the Grand National fences at Aintree where his safety-first style of jumping would be a big plus.

STAR DE MOHAISON (40) equaled his fastest performance on my speed ratings and did really well to run the winner so close while conceding 18 pounds. He's still very lightly raced and had run very consistently over fences. I can see him improving off this effort to take another Grade 1. After all his best previous effort was in novice company and chasers invariably run a couple of lengths per mile faster than they did as novices when they gain more experience.

POSSOL (34) had beaten Mon Mome narrowly in another valuable chase at Haydock on his previous start. Here he raced prominently until steadily losing ground coming down the hill approaching the straight. He looked to have no chance early in the straight as he was fifteen lengths behind the third. But his stamina really kicked in thanks to the uphill finish and he picked up strongly to pass two horses and take third close home.

I know that Possol is only five. But the stamina he showed here persuades me that he'd have a serious shot in the Welsh National, a race that seems to favour very young horses.

TINGLE CREEK WAS A MESSY RACE

I thought that FIEPES SHUFFLE was a rattling good bet to score an upset win in the Tingle Creek Chase. This gung ho front runner had lost a few times in big fields when faced with too much competition for the lead. But he had won ten of the eleven times he'd completed the course in races with eight or fewer runners. He would undoubtedly have won both times he tipped up in small fields too as he was clear in each race at the time. One of them was in a good Listed hurdle at Sandown where he was moving strongly in a three length lead over the smart Royal Shakespeare at the last when he fell.

It looked like Fiepes Shuffle would enjoy an uncontested lead in the Tingle Creek. And he did. Sadly though he got no further than the first fence. He took it slightly sideways and crumpled on landing. If his jockey hadn't booted him into it he might well have got over.

With Fiepes Shuffle out of the race, the game plans of all the other jockeys were instantly up in the air. For the next three quarters of a mile they basically all just looked at each other. MASTER MINDED (35) led but only because he was second when Fiepes Shuffle came down and nobody wanted to go past him. They'd clearly all planned on settling in behind Fiepes Shuffle and didn't like the idea of kicking on themselves with him gone.

Tony McCoy finally decided to get on with things as they approached the first of the Railway fences on the far side. He asked Master Minded to pick up. And from there they covered the final nine furlongs or so 6.3 seconds quicker than they did in the Grade 2 Henry VIII Novice chase over the same trip earlier on the card. If they hadn’t missed the Pond fence the difference would have been about 5.0 seconds, but that's still a huge amount for the second part of a two mile race. Clearly the field were fairly flying when the pace picked up.

One horse that positively thrives in these sort of circumstances is Master Minded's stablemate TWIST MAGIC (34). He doesn't really get two miles except on a tight track, on lightning fast ground or off a slow early pace like he had in last year's Tingle Creek and again this time.

Once the pace picked up Twist Magic was the only horse really traveling besides the winner. He wasn't stretched into mistakes like most of the others chasing Master Minded and entered the homestraight moving slightly better than that one. Approaching two out it was hard to say for sure whether he or his stablemate would win. My impression was that by then Master Minded was going slightly the better. Sadly though Twist Magic crashed out at that fence, so we'll never know for sure what would have happened.

Clearly though, Twist Magic showed once more that he is a seriously good horse over two miles in circumstances where his stamina is not unduly tested.

My impression that Master Minded would have won is backed up by a formula I use to predict what time a horse would have run based on the sectional times it clocked. This suggests that in a true run race Master Minded would have equaled the speed rating of 43 I gave him for his big win in the Champion Chase.

When Ruby Walsh first rode Master Minded in France he told Paul Nicholls that the horse didn't stay the extended two and a half miles. Clearly this is the key to his form. Master Minded has won all four times he's run 2 miles and a furlong or less. But he's lost all seven times he's tackled pattern class opposition at longer distances.

It's worth noting that even in his most impressive win in the Champion Chase Master Minded was actually tiring in the closing stages. He took 56.9 seconds to run from the third last to the finish compared with the 55.2 seconds by Tidal Bay when you adjust for the difference in going.

One concern I still have about Master Minded is that in fourteen lifetime starts he's just earned that one really big speed rating from me.

A smart American speed ratings expert once told me "never bet a one-number horse". He meant a horse exactly like Master Minded that shows one off the scale huge performance in a record that is otherwise not that brilliant. The likelihood is that either you got the big number wrong or there was something unique about the circumstances of the big performance that is not often going to be replicated.

I concede Master Minded won well again here. But the time was slow, and I still wonder what would have happened if Fiepes Shuffle had stood up. Maybe Fiepes Shuffle wouldn't have beaten him. But the German horse would certainly have put Master Minded's jumping under more pressure and ensured that three key rivals in Tidal Bay, Mahogany Blaze and Takeroc wouldn't have been stretched into jumping errors when the pace quickened so dramatically.

TIDAL BAY (35) was the horse that was most inconvenienced by the quickened pace on the far side. He jumped the first of the Railway fences slow as soon as Master Minded accelerated and lost his position there and again at the next fence. He's a big, strong tall horse that looked like a three miler running against a two miler here. His stamina pulled him into a distant second late in the race, but clearly this was nothing like his best form.

You may recall that Tidal Bay was stretched into a similar series of jumping errors over two miles last term when he got caught out by an accelerating pace off a slow early gallop at Doncaster. He's won the last five times that he's run two and a half miles or more and surely needs to go back up to a longer trip.

The way that TAKEROC (28) got stretched into a pretty bad mistake three out by the quickened pace suggests to me that he too would be more comfortable going back up in trip. He's won just one time in five at two miles but has taken both races he's contested beyond two and a quarter miles.

Things went horribly wrong for MAHOGANY BLAZE (12). I've noted before that he's best held up off a strong pace. Here, once Fiepes Shuffle exited he was forced to race more prominently. And he was then stretched into a monumental blunder on the far side at the eighth. His back legs went out from under him as he sprawled to a standstill on the other side of the fence. He continued but his chance was wiped out by the blunder.

If he were mine I'd be inclined to steer Mahogany Blaze towards handicaps right now. He's been caught out by a slow early pace in his last two starts. In valuable handicaps the early pace tends to be strong and that would suit him better. In this regards it's interesting to note that his biggest win over hurdles came in a handicap, as did his best run over fences judged by Racing Post ratings and my speed figures. The obvious immediate target would be the Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot. Then again it may be that he simply needs to go up in trip.

CHEATING WORTH ANOTHER CHANCE

If the Tingle Creek was a messy race due to a slow early pace the Henry VIII Novice Chase was messy for the opposite reason. The novices looked to go off just a bit too fast for their own good in a race run over the same course and distance as Sandown's big two miler.

FREE WORLD (36) and ARALDUR (36) were the pair responsible for the fast gallop. They took each other on from the start and gave themselves no room for error at the jumps. As a result they both made mistakes and even collided in mid-air at the eighth on the far side.

Free World is built to produce more speed than Araldur and his jumping was slightly better. He was going best for most of the race but was beginning to tire when hitting two out. He still led at the last but Araldur's superior stamina kicked in and he got caught late in proceedings by a neck.

In most novice chases Free World would not have been pressed to go so fast early. He would have run his rivals ragged by about halfway, been able to pace himself better and almost certainly clock a faster time. As it is the time for the race would have been about 0.3 seconds faster than the Tingle Creek if they hadn't omitted the Pond Fence in that race.

I would bet that Free World is going to need a while to recover from this big effort. This is the norm for out and out two mile chasers like him anyway. They invariably produce their best on their first two completed starts of the season but then need at least five weeks off to run well again. Free World was able to win outside of this pattern over hurdles but two mile chasers need the extra bounce that only their 'fast twitch' muscles can provide to clear fences, and fast twitch muscles burn glycogen which takes a while to build up again when it's been depleted. (This is why the top two mile chasers fall so often when they're not fresh.)

Free World is still only four. I don't know how good he will be when he matures and strengthens up. But right now I doubt that he can run more than a couple of lengths per mile faster than he did here. That tags him as a bit below Grade 1 class at present. If he were mine I would lay him off for eight weeks plus then find an easy race for him that's at least five weeks before the Aintree Festival. His best chance of big race success surely lies there in the Maghull Novices' Chase. It is a Grade 1 but can often be won by a horse that's a bit shy of that class.

Araldur does not look or run like a two mile chaser. He's a more robust sort than the winner that looks built for around two and a half miles. In addition, unlike most good two mile chasers, he does not seem best fresh at all. In fact he has won four times out of four when he's had a recent run and lost all four times he hasn't.

I liked the professional way that Araldur went about his business here. Despite being taken along at a pace he found uncomfortable he did what was necessary to win. Over a longer trip he could turn out to be very useful.

The other horse to take out of the race is surely CHEATING CHANCE (10). He simply could not go the pace. He was spooked into jumping way too big at the first in order to clear it safely and proceeded to drop further and further behind. He'd shown very good form to win three in a row beforehand and earlier took a point to point over three miles. He clearly needs to go back up to that sort of distance now. When he does I'll be interested in his chances.

BY GEORGE THAT WAS A PROMISING RUN

BY GEORGE (36) put up one of the most eye-catching runs of the week when staying on into third in a good novice handicap chase at Sandown.

Early on By George was dropped out about five to six lengths off the leader, with only one horse behind him. But it was noticeable that he was moving well and jumping the fences with real precision. Then in the backstraight on the last circuit, when the pace picked up slightly, he got stretched into a couple of errors at the Railway fences and lost ground. As they began the home turn he was about ten lengths in arrears.

From there however By George began to move well once more as the leaders began to tire and his stamina kicked in. He'd closed up to be only about three lengths back at the Pond Fence. And running up to the last he had his ears pricked and was moving smoothly just a couple of lengths off the first two in third place. With the hill to help him and the leaders going nowhere near as well, it looked sure he was going to pick them up and win nicely. But his head came up and he ran green, just as he had when winning at Huntingdon on his previous start. He looked totally unfocused and failed to put in anything like a maximum effort. It was only in the dying strides when the first two tired and the hill helped him that By George began closing the gap with any speed, though he was clearly still not exerting himself.

It may well be that By George is always going to suffer from what you might call the Harchibald syndrome. That is he's going to ease himself up as soon as he sees too much daylight. It's far too early to say that for sure though. Right now he's not even racing over his right distance. He's a strong, classy sort that's built and bred for three miles, not the two and a half of this contest. I suspect he's only running over trips this short right now because he's shown an inclination to pull hard in the early stages. Again though, like greenness and hanging, this is something that tends to disappear as a horse gains experience.

Those two poor runs at Fakenham and Newbury suggest that By George has otherwise been kept to right-handed tracks for a reason. Indeed he hung right on the run in at Huntingdon and did tend to go in that direction here once he got near the front.

It was probably a shrewd idea to run By George in a non-novice chase last time. This enabled him to encounter a bigger field and get plenty of cover. In chases for experienced horses the early pace tends to be strong too.

My inclination now would be to put By George back against more experienced rivals, step him up to three miles and shoot for a decent prize on a right-handed track. I see him developing into a very decent three mile chaser.

The winner RUSTARIX (37) is clearly a decent horse in the circumstances that he faced here. Indeed he would have won all five times he's run on right handed courses in Britain between 2m 3f and 2m 5f but for bumping into two high class rivals and running second by two lengths each time. However I should note that his trainer, Alan King, has a different explanation for his form. I should note that Alan King, the trainer of Rustarix, feels the horse dislikes genuinely soft ground. He beat ordinary rivals when taking a novice hurdle on soft ground but has run below form in three subsequent tries on such going. Toss out those runs and the remaining seven UK performances of Rustarix are nothing but first or second place finishes.

Trainers are normally right. So I imagine that Alan King has his eyes firmly on the Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase at Cheltenham for Rustarix. He looks a solid contender for that race.

On reflection Rustarix was probably fortunate to have run up against one or more of the top novice chasers in every single one of his chase starts last term. This ensured that he retained his novice status for this season while gaining valuable experience. He's now putting this to good use and will surely be placed to win again when he returns in January.

THE VERY MAN WORTH ANOTHER SHOT AT CHASING

I confess that I have a weakness for mudlarks with an insane amount of stamina like THE VERY MAN (28). I admire the way they can just keep on running through hock deep mud when everything else is legless.

The Very Man is one of the more extreme examples of this type. Before he ran at Chepstow last week he would have won all four times he'd run on genuinely soft or heavy ground if one photo had gone the other way and he hadn't bumped into the top class Aran Concerto when running second in another race.

With the ground riding heavy at Chepstow I figured that The Very Man just had to win. After all he'd earned pattern class speed ratings from me in the past but was running in a mere 0-125 handicap hurdle.

What I hadn't thought of was that the jockeys would be so cautious about going any sort of a pace in the ground that the early gallop would be a crawl. They basically walked for the first half mile and only really picked up the pace properly from around halfway. As soon as they did The Very Man jumped the next hurdle hesitantly and proceeded to drop further and further behind. He was being horribly outpaced.

By the time The Very Man's near bottomless stamina began to kick in it was far too late. All he could do was stay on from seventh to reach a distant fourth in the last three furlongs.

I have had my eye on The Very Man as the likely winner of a good staying handicap hurdle in mud for some time. But now I think he'll need a big field to score in such a race. In smaller fields there will be less competition for the lead and the jockeys will probably be too cautious about going a decent pace early as they were here.

Seeing that he's built for chasing, I think that it would be a smart idea to try The Very Man over fences once more. I know he had to be pulled up on both his previous starts over the bigger jumps to date. But those races were over two and two and a quarter miles on ground that was too fast for him. It's no wonder he was stretched into making mistakes. On softer ground and over a longer distance I think he could well prove pattern class over fences.

AIR FORCE ONE SHOULD GO TO IRELAND

Even after his good second in the Hennessy I know you can still make a good case for saying that AIR FORCE ONE (38) prefers going right-handed. After all seven of his eight wins have been on right-handed courses, the sole exception being one success around Fontwell's figure of eight track where the all-important home turn is taken right-handed.

However I now agree with his trainer, Charlie Mann who says Air Force One has no right hand bias. His argument is that Air Force One has won at Fontwell, which turns both ways, and run second at the Cheltenham Festival on a left-handed course. My argument is based on watching the videos of Air Force One's races where he has never shown the slightest inclination to jump to the right.

The physical feature that is most obvious about Air Force One is his odd stride pattern. He almost paddles the air in front of him. And he does nothing quickly. This, I'm convinced, is the key to understanding his form. Watch his races and see what happens whenever he is asked to approach a fence at real speed, either because the distance is too short, it's downhill or a sprint finish has developed (especially on fast ground). Watch and you'll see that he just can't get high enough in time and drags his back legs through the jump.

Thanks to his odd stride pattern Air Force One can always get his front end over a jump because he can raise his front legs really high, ensuring they don't get tangled up in the fence. It seems to me that he's happy to take the scratching and bumping to his back end as he drags it through a fence so long as he can get his front end over and ensure there's no chance of falling.

Looking back through his form I see that Air Force One fell at the second obstacle on his first jumps start, in a fixed brush hurdle race at Munich. This, I think, is the origin of his safety-first jumping technique.

I've seen quite a few horses which fell or blundered on their first start over bigger jumps thereafter employ various strategems to ensure they never go through the experience again. Hold Em is another good example. He made a mistake on his point to point debut but has only hit one jump since in fourteen subsequent starts over hurdles and fences. Hold Em is nowhere near as big or strong as Air Force One. So he keeps himself safe by easing off and taking a jump slow if he's meeting it wrong (actually I've seen Air Force One do this a few times as well).

When Air Force One doesn't have to take a fence at too fast a pace he can jump exceptionally well. He stands off and can clear it with feet to spare. He's a very strong horse. Basically if all fences were six feet high instead of the regulation four and a half he'd be nearly unbeatable because his rivals would have to slow up to take them. I strongly suspect this is why his best ever performance came at Punchestown where the fences claim a higher percentage of fallers than anywhere except Aintree's National course.

At Newbury the percentage of fallers in chases has been almost exactly half of Punchestown's over the last dozen years. And in recent years the rate has been dropping, as it has at most UK tracks, thanks to the measures taken to decrease casualties by making fences safer. Indeed since 2004 just 4.20% of the runners in Newbury's chases have fallen. That's only slightly more than the 3.14% which have fallen on the track's hurdles course. Statistics like these make me wonder whether the safety measures in Britain have now gone too far. As I see it fences are supposed to be much harder to jump than hurdles. Eroding the difference between fences and hurdles by continually making them easier to jump does a disservice to the game in general and to proper chasing sorts like Air Force One in particular.

In the Hennessy Air Force One was going better than any of his rivals throughout the race. But ISLAND FLYER (22) had been allowed to set a somewhat modest early pace. When he picked up the gallop as they headed onto the far side this caught Air Force One out. He was forced to take the first fence they tackled at increased speed (the twelfth) slow. He changed tactics by taking the second last sideways to keep himself safe but reverted to his normal routine of dragging his back legs through the last. But for these errors he would have won the race for sure as I see it. And the errors only occurred because of the slow early pace which prompted the field to go much faster over the last eleven furlongs. In fact they ran this part of the race less than a second slower than the very fast Petit Robin did in the two miler earlier on the card. They should have run it four seconds slower if they'd gone a normal pace earlier. I've adjusted the rating for the race to take account of this.

If he were mine I'd be inclined to focus the future chasing career of Air Force One on Ireland where the stiffer fences will ensure that there's far less chance of him being asked to 'hurdle' a fence at speed than there is in Britain.

I'm not sure that Air Force One is ever going to be suited by a steeply undulating course such as Cheltenham because the runners speed up so much on the downhill section of the course.

The race I'd most like to see Air Force One go for this term is the Irish Grand National where the stiff fences will suit him and the extreme distance will bring his seemingly bottomless stamina into play.

If he stays in Britain the best shot Air Force One would have of taking a big chase would surely be in the Totesport Bowl at Aintree where the fences still claim the same kind of percentage of fallers we used to see at most UK chase tracks. The King George would also be a fair target as the track is flat like Aintree, the fences fairly stiff and the pace tends to be strong. However I'd much prefer his chances in the Lexus Chase in Ireland.

In the longer run it would be very interesting to see him tackle the Grand National, a race that seems tailor-made for him. But I doubt that he'll ever take to Cheltenham's steep undulations well enough to be a serious factor in the Gold Cup.

I've written so much about Air Force One because I think he has almost any amount of ability and is capable of beating just about any rival in a truly run chase over three miles plus on anything but a steeply undulating course. In slow run races he's always going to be in danger of hitting the jumps and getting done for speed in the finish.

Other Hennessy runners are worth mentioning though starting with the winner MADISON DU BERLAIS (39).

Madison du Berlais is a greedy feeder at home apparently and always seems to need a run within the last 28 days to produce his best. He also doesn't seem to like being crowded at a fence. Prior to this win he had scored six of the previous seven times he'd run in fields of eleven or less off a break of 28 days or less. He was forced into a few jumping errors here. But the extra wide fences at Newbury have helped several horses win in big fields in the past that preferred smaller fields elsewhere. In addition the fast pace over the last eleven furlongs stretched the field out here somewhat, creating more gaps for Madison du Berlais to jump the fences.

It's still an open question whether Madison du Berlais really stays three miles plus in a truly run race. Previously the only time he'd run to his best over such a trip was on very fast ground at Ascot, a track where a lot of horses seem to get three miles over fences which don't elsewhere.

Still, in a field of eleven or less or at Newbury, Madison du Berlais is a very solid and consistent Grade 2 chaser when he's had a run within the lasts 28 days. He's been earning ratings of 39 and 40 from me for three years now, and that's enough to win him a good Conditions chase if he can avoid the very best horses.

This race seemed to prove conclusively that Island Flyer does not stay three and a quarter miles and is probably best short of three. This is no big surprise. Island Flyer is the only offspring of his sire so far to win over two and a half miles plus over fences. In addition he has the build of a two and a half mile horse. Indeed he seemed to have trouble getting the three miles when he was a point to pointer. The only time he scored between the flags in five tries was in a race where only two other horses completed the course. Under rules he has been kept to shorter trips until last time out where he jumped boldly in the lead before tiring up the straight. He was out on his feet in the closing stages. And though he did rally an lost by a mere short head he had almost stopped to a walk crossing the line. That was on a tight course. Here on a bigger, more galloping course he clearly failed to get home. He's unbeaten in three chases at trips short of three miles and is clearly very useful over such distances.

BIG BUCK'S (38) would almost certainly have been a decent third if he hadn't blundered at the last and unseated his rider. He was attempting to become the first five year old to win the Hennessy in its fifty year history, and the stats were heavily against him. This is shown by the fact that all 73 horses aged less than six which have contested non-novice national hunt races worth 35,000 or more to the winner and run over 2m 6f or more in the last dozen years all lost (all but a handful were five year olds). Clearly a horse as young as Big Buck's is just not strong enough to beat good older rivals over a distance this far. But he put up a big effort and will surely do even better as he gets older and stronger.

ALBERTAS RUN has a fast ground action and has never won a chase on anything but good or faster ground. But it wasn't the cut in the ground that beat him here. He was forced into jumping errors by the increased gallop in the last half of the race, just as he was at Aintree last year. I now rather suspect that he's so one paced that he needs an uphill finish to pull him into a race. In this regard it is interesting to note that he has now won all four times he has run in a chase on good or faster ground on a track with an uphill finish.

Marathon runner MY WILL (35) did very well to stay on to take fifth seeing that the distance was on the short side for him and the pace not strong enough. He's run nothing but good races over three and a half miles plus or on soft or heavy ground. I can see him winning something big when he gets his conditions in the near future.

HIGH CHIMES (35) was keen early due to the modest early pace but started to move well exiting the backstraight and stayed on nicely. I note with interest that this lightly raced sort has won both times he's run on steeply undulating courses including at Chepstow, where of course the Welsh National will be run. He does look rather interesting for that race seeing that he was good enough to win at this year's Cheltenham Festival. The caveat is that his trainer says he's better on good ground and the Welsh National normally takes place on soft.

DEAR VILLEZ (35) jumped really well for such an inexperienced horse, especially seeing that the ground was faster than he seems to like. He has now won all four times he's run on soft or heavy ground and lost all five tries on faster surfaces. He's clearly useful (he clocked a solid Grade 3 time at Limerick) and must have a good chance of taking another big chase when he gets his ground.

PETIT ROBIN IS TOP CLASS

You won't see many better performances in a two mile chase than that put up by PETIT ROBIN (42) at Newbury last week. He set a scorching pace and fairly pinged the jumps. A succession of rivals tried to get to him but he stood them all off and ended up winning so cosily that jockey Tony McCoy was able to take a look back over his shoulder in the closing stages.

Petit Robin is not that big for a chaser and is rather light-framed. So I strongly suspect he will prove to be best fresh, just like most top two mile chasers. That is on his first two completed starts of the season and with a five week plus break between his completed starts thereafter.

It may also be that Petit Robin's relatively slight physique will mean he needs a bit of bounce in the ground to clear fences effectively. It was firm and good to firm when he won his two chases in France (forget the official going descriptions, they're laughably inaccurate). And it was only just yielding for his success here. He may handle soft ground as well over fences as he did when scoring over hurdles last term. But it has to be a concern at this stage. There must also be a worry about how he'd cope with the stiffer fences to be found in Ireland and at a few UK courses - Ayr, Aintree and Kempton being the ones where he'd be most likely to run.

The other obvious question mark hanging over Petit Robin is how well he'll do on tracks with steep uphill finishes. His only loss came on the one occasion he ran on anything but a dead flat track. This was at Cheltenham last year. You could argue that was because it was his first run back over hurdles after jumping nothing but fences. But given his gung-ho style of front running his one defeat at Cheltenham just has to raise a red flag in terms of whether he can get home on a stiff track.

That said, I'd be wary of betting any horse to beat Petit Robin in a two mile chase right now. He's clearly top class.

Of the beaten horses the one that impressed me most was PREDATEUR (28). He was going well for an awfully long way. In fact as they entered the straight he looked to be moving better than anything. However he tired badly from two out to finish a distant fourth.

My best guess at this stage is that Predateur is best at trips short of two and a half miles and, like many short distance chasers, is best fresh. Toss out his hurdles debut (which most horses lose) and his other form when fresh at shorter trips shows two wins from three completed starts with a second place finish in a Grade 2 in his sole loss.

SAINTSAIRE (30) had won the last two runnings of this race and ran well this time on his first start for new connections. He improved moving ominously well just before the straight but simply couldn't go with the winner when that one really kicked on. However he kept on pretty nicely on the run in to take third.

Paul Nicholls, the former trainer of Saintsaire, surely got it right when he said the horse was best on dead flat tracks with cut in the ground. Here the ground may not quite have been soft enough for him. That plus the sustained pace shown by a Grade 1 class winner is probably what beat Saintsaire here.

Like most short distance chasers Saintsaire seems to be best fresh. He still will be next time out. So if he can be found a slightly weaker race on softer ground and on a dead flat track he will be interesting.

The stamina of ITS CRUCIAL (36) proved very helpful to him in a race where all his rivals were basically run into the ground by the tremendous gallop set and sustained by the winner. He has only won one of his last 24 starts. But he's been consistent on genuinely soft ground. Seeing that his last win came over three miles, he'd surely have a very good chance over a longer distance on softer ground in the near future.

KING LOUIS (8) has never seemed to handle anything but genuinely good or faster ground. But it was primarily the pace and the distance that caused him to get beat so far here. He was flat to the boards right from the start and stretched into a series of errors. He clearly needs to go up in distance. He's won three of the four chases he's contested below pattern class on good or faster ground and run second in his sole loss. The way he's built and the way he runs suggests to me that he'll get three miles. However I like to see a horse stepped up gradually in distance. So I'll be most interested in King Louis the next time he goes 2m 3f to 2m 5f and gets his ground. Normally he jumps really well, and I can see him progressing to better the Listed class speed ratings he's earned from me so far over longer trips.