KING EDMUND CAN WIN A BIG NOVICE CHASE

The bonus offered to horses that go on to win at the Cheltenham Festival has clearly had a big impact on the 2m 1f novice chase run at Plumpton in mid December. For the seventh year in a row it attracted a pattern class field. Indeed this year's race was a Grade 2 in all but name and was run in the sort of time you'd expect for that class.

The winner was KING EDMUND (39) who set a strong pace and fairly pinged the jumps.

Approaching the straight I thought that El Dancer was going to get by King Edmund as he looked to be going a bit better. But that one collided with Mahonia in mid air at the second last, got himself rather tangled up with his rival as that one fell and lost momentum. King Edmund made the best of his way home from there and finished out his race to such effect that I'm not sure he wouldn't have won anyway. Okay his stride was shortening a bit approaching the line but by then it was all over.

King Edmund is a proper chasing sort that looks built for at least two and a half miles. But he's a hard puller that seems to need tight turns to even the 2m 1f he ran here. Last time out, over this course, he bowled along in front last time as usual, moving well, but was totally done for speed by ex flat racer The Betchworth Kid in the closing stages. The switch to the bigger jumps clearly helped offset his obvious lack of acceleration.

If he hadn't fallen when two lengths up in one race King Edmund would almost certainly have won three of the four times he's run this distance or less around a relatively tight course. King Edmund's future campaign pretty much writes itself. There's the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices Chase at Kempton over Christmas, the Grade 2 Kingmaker Novices Chase at Warwick in February and the Grade 1 Maghull Novices Chase at Aintree in April. The only other fairly valuable two mile chase around a tight track is the one run at the Perth Festival in late April.

A similar program looks obvious for EL DANCER (38) at first glance, given his clear preference for shorter trips and tight turns. After all. when you toss his flat runs beyond 11 furlongs and his jump runs beyond 17 furlongs, El Dancer's record on tight tracks before this run showed seven wins out of nine and a second to a Group winner in one of his losses. He's yet to win in five tries on galloping courses.

However I'm not yet sure El Dancer won't be able to last home around more galloping tracks now he's running over fences seeing how well he recovered from his mishap here and how strongly he was moving on the run in.

El Dancer is a good looking classy sort that ran a terrific race on his seasonal debut to finish fifth of fifteen in the valuable Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham's Open meeting. I'm not ruling out the possibility he might stay well enough on galloping tracks over fences to be a threat in the Arkle come March.

You can debate where MAHONIA (37) would have finished had he not collided with El Dancer, bounced off Shoreacres and got turned sideways in the air two out, leaving him no chance of landing safely. I'm rating him as having run third by about four lengths which is my best guess. But wherever he would have finished it's clear the breathing operation Mahonia had in the Summer has worked. He pressed the scorching early pace hard while jumping fast.

Mahonia looked like a Grade 1 horse when beating the smart Medermit thirteen lengths on his hurdling debut last November. He's obviously never going to get home up the hill at Cheltenham due to his breathing issues and I doubt he'll ever win beyond 2m 1f. But he's surely got the ability to win something very decent over fences sooner rather than later. Against a normal field of novice chasers I can see him winning by twenty or thirty lengths next time thanks to the terrific pace he can go while flying the fences.

SIR HARRY ORMESHER SET TO WIN A BIG HANDICAP HURDLE

Last week I reckoned I'd found a great bet at huge odds in a valuable handicap hurdle at Doncaster in SIR HARRY ORMESHER (39). I had a theory that he was best in big fields as he'd won four of the most recent five times he'd run in fields of eight or more.

I'm now pretty sure my theory is wrong. But nonetheless Sir Harry Ormersher made rapid headway to improve from sixteenth position approaching the home turn to dispute the lead then kick on halfway up the straight. The only horse close able to go with him was Issaquah. The pair were going so much better than the rest that their riders chose to ignore the official waving a flag ordering everyone to stop at the second last to avoid a stricken horse. They continued to race on till their jockeys eased them up in the last hundred yards.

If the race had continued I'd be pretty sure Sir Harry Ormesher would have won by around four lengths with a similar gap back to the rest. But even being eased up he still passed the post first, clocking a time of 3m 55.60 by my estimates - making him much the fastest winner on the card.

I'm now inclined to believe that it is stamina and ground conditions rather than field size which dictates Sir Harry Ormesher's form. He didn't get home up the steep uphill finish at Cheltenham. But if you count this run as a win (and you should) then he's won five of the six times he's raced over less than two and a half miles outside Cheltenham on ground that race times indicate was good or faster. His sole loss was a close fourth in a Grade 2 to the smart Deep Purple - a race where he might well have finished second but for hitting the last.

Clearly Sir Harry Ormesher is seriously under-rated with an official handicap mark of only 133. Finding fast ground for him at this time of year is going to be difficult. But he looks a great bet to win a big handicap hurdle sometime this season, most likely in the Spring when underfoot conditions tend to be faster.

ISSAQUAH (37) is also rather interesting. She too doesn't seem to get home up the hill at Cheltenham and only seems to last two and a quarter miles elsewhere. And it looks like she needs yielding or faster ground.

Toss out her runs at Cheltenham and those beyond 2m 2f or on ground race times indicate was soft and Issaquah would have won seven of her eight other starts before this race if one short head photo had gone her way and she hadn't thrown a Bumper away by veering left on the run in.

The obvious target for Issaquah is the Grade 2 mares hurdle run at Doncaster next month. If she gets yielding or faster ground there I'll be very interested in her chances.

KHYBER KIM SMART ON SOFT GROUND

KHYBER KIM (41) has always been a smart horse when fresh and with cut in the ground. So far he's encountered soft ground in three hurdle races when it's been one of his first two starts of the season or with a five week plus break thereafter. He's won all three times, his latest success coming in the Boylesports.com International Hurdle at Cheltenham.

The race was run at a searching gallop thanks to Ashkazar who went off at a good pace and Celestial Halo who chased him. But Khyber Kim was always going really well. He quickened up nicely to take over when Celestial Halo landed too steeply and lost momentum jumping the last, and it looked to me that he would have won anyway.

Khyber Kim is a really good looking horse that's tricky to keep on song. But if he's kept fresh he'll be hard to beat whenever he gets his ground.

CELESTIAL HALO (40) is an imposing specimen. In fact he's always looked more of a chasing sort because he's so big and long striding. He just lacks the turn of foot needed to be truly brilliant over timber. He showed that again here when done for speed by the winner.

Clearly the steep uphill finish at Cheltenham helps Celestial Halo greatly. But my feeling is that if he's ever going to win again at the Cheltenham Festival it will be in the 2011 Arkle rather than the 2010 Champion Hurdle.

DEEP PURPLE TOUGH TO BEAT IN SMALL FIELDS

DEEP PURPLE (40) is not that big or robust. And this surely explains why he has trouble jumping in a big field, especially over stiff fences.

The stiffest fences in Britain judged by the percentage of fallers are Aintree, Ayr, Doncaster, Kempton, Lingfield, Wetherby and Wincanton. He won five runner chases at two of these courses but jumped poorly and lost two starts in bigger fields.

Toss out his chase runs over stiff fences in fields of six or more and his other jump starts when ten or more have lined up and you'll find Deep Purple has won ten of his other eleven starts over hurdles and fences. His latest success came in a strongly run renewal of the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon where he was always going well and scored by six lengths.

I can't see the King George cutting up to a small enough field to enable Deep Purple to jump the tracks tough fences effectively. But later on I can see him winning more decent chases in small fields.

HERECOMESTHERUTH (39) is the opposite of the winner in that his exuberant jumping is wasted on most courses. He frequently clears the jumps with feet to spare. He makes the occasional blunder but always seems to get to the other side standing. Unfortunately he made one at the last, giving his rider no chance of staying in the saddle. Otherwise he would have finished second.

Herecomesthetruth is built and bred for three miles but doesn't really give himself a chance to last that far because he goes off so fast.

The best run Herecomesthetruth has put up on my speed ratings came when he beat Forpadydeplasterer at Down Royal on his seasonal debut. I'd like to see him return to Ireland where the stiffer fences play to his strengths.

The big plus here was that Herecomesthetruth didn't try to run out at any stage. He did so twice at Down Royal, once at Sandown last year and actually managed to do so at Cheltenham last November. Hopefully he's learning. Though if ever you back him you're always going to be holding his breath till he's run past the exit to the stables - something that seems to be a huge temptation to him.

ZAYNAR IS NO CHAMPION HURDLER

One of the first lessons I learned about jump racing was that there are two kinds of top class hurdler. The first is the sort that wins tactically run trial races like those ZAYNAR (27) has mopped up this season. The second is the sort that beats a huge field off a scorching early gallop to win the Champion Hurdle.

Zaynar certainly looked good winning the Relkeel Hurdle. But he only beat five rivals, one of whom fell. And the pace slowed down in the middle of the race which enabled him to use his superior turn of foot to beat the proper national hunt sorts he was racing against in a sprint finish.

I really can't understand what all the fuss is about with Zaynar. Not one of the horses he's beaten into second place in his five hurdle wins could be considered anything like a Champion Hurdle candidate. He's never earned better than a Listed class speed rating from me. And he's hardly a great physical specimen, being only medium sized and rather light framed. He's built and bred for flat racing, which explains that great turn of foot he has.

The clincher is that Zaynar will only be five years of age when the Champion Hurdle comes around. Since See You Then won the Champion Hurdle back in 1985 only one horse that young has taken the big race even though 72 have tried. This was Katchit in 2008.

Katchit had massively more experience than most five year old hurdlers. He'd started racing at two and had racked up 28 lifetime starts before winning the Champion Hurdle.

Katchit had run in a dozen hurdle races before taking the Champion Hurdle too, just one less than the record for a five year old in the last fifteen years.

Zaynar didn't start racing till he was three. He's had just eight lifetime starts and only five hurdle races. So he doesn't have the seasoning to overcome a lack of maturity like Katchit did.

DOCTOR PAT THE ONE TO BEAT IN FELTHAM

Last week I reckoned I might well have spotted a Grade 1 horse running off a mark of 111 in a novices' Handicap Chase at Sandown. Not only did I think so, but his trainer appeared to as well. The horse in question was DOCTOR PAT (37) trained by Francois Doumen in France.

Doumen had stated in several interviews that he rated Doctor Pat highly. And he was bringing him right back to Britain after travel problems stopped him from contesting another novice chase in the UK the previous week.

Seeing how he so often targets the Grade 1 Feltham Novices Chase at Kempton's Christmas meeting it looked likely that Doumen reckoned Doctor Pat was good enough to be representing him in the event this year - and that the purpose of the Sandown race was to give the horse some experience over British fences first.

My one big concern was that the race was only two and a half miles. Doctor Pat is a great big, really deep chested chasing sort with a huge stride that has very little in the way of acceleration. He looks built for every inch of three miles and was in fact due to run over the distance at Kempton till he was forced to miss the race.

I figured that the soft ground and Sandown's uphill finish would be enough to offset the inadequate distance. But it was a really close run thing.

For most of the race Doctor Pat lobbed along in last place. He was clearly moving well but still had ten lengths to make up with only two to jump. He started rolling there. However he was still seven lengths behind jumping the last. He stayed on tremendously well and just go up on the line. A few strides past it and he was bounding clear. He clocked a pattern class time and would surely have done even better over three miles.

Noel Fehily apparently dropped Doctor Pat out early as he tends to be too keen for his own good early if he races more prominently. This prompts the one concern I have about his chances in the Feltham, and that's the small field the race so often attracts. If there are only half a dozen or so runners he could see too much daylight. In addition the pace might not be strong enough for him. He's shown in the past that he can be left floundering in a sprint finish following a slow early pace.

Doumen actually brought Doctor Pat over to Britain for his very first lifetime start in a Newbury Bumper a year ago where he was the subject of a big gamble but only managed to run fifth. Doumen said afterwards "I thought he would kill them at Newbury but he didn't. I have a lot of respect for him."

A few weeks later Doumen gave a tour of his Chantilly stable to several visiting British racing journalists. He said he was looking for a horse to fill the gap made by the retirement and sale of his most recent Grade 1 winners. And, after wheeling out the obvious candidate Kasbah Bliss, the very next horse he led out was Doctor Pat.

Doumen told the journalists that Doctor Pat's big target was the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in about six weeks time. He added "He has schooled well and is the first foal of Bilboa who finished third for me in the Champion Hurdle." he's a big, lovely chap, and I think he'll be very good one day."

In order to justify running in such a big race Doctor Pat obviously had to produce a very good run on his hurdling debut. This came at Ascot two weeks later. Before the race he said “He disappointed me at Newbury. I thought he was ready, but he was not. I am expecting more from the horse this time.”

Unfortunately Doctor Pat could only manage third. He pulled hard in the small field. He was also hugely disadvantaged by the very slow early pace and the fact the winner was allowed an enormous uncontested lead. He did gain eight lengths up the straight though.

Doctor Pat didn't do any better on his second hurdles start in another slow run race at Auteuil But following a six month break he did a lot better on his seasonal debut this term, in a hot fixed brush hurdle at Auteuil

In that race Doctor Pat showed that he'd been rigorously schooled over fences by ballooning the first jump, clearing it with feet to spare. He overjumped a couple more but eventually got his eye back in over the smaller jumps as the race progressed.

Unfortunately the race was only two and a quarter miles. So it wasn't surprising that Doctor Pat began to be outpaced from halfway. However the ground was soft and the pace had been strong throughout. This enabled his stamina to kick in from the time they entered the straight with three furlongs and two jumps left. From there he finished really well, picking up nine lengths to the line, six of which were in the final furlong on the run in. He ended up getting beat only eight and a half lengths in what was a red hot race.

The winner of the race was Cyrlight, a multiple Group 1 winner that has won twenty times over jumps. The runner up has won a Group 3 hurdle and run fourth in a Group 1. The third has won a Grade 1 hurdle in Britain and a Group 1 hurdle in France. The fourth was a Group 3 flat winner that had won its only previous completed start over jumps.

Cyrlight is actually the highest rated jumper in France on official figures. To get to within eight and a half lengths of him in a truly run race over an inadequate trip while getting only four pounds was a terrific performance.

One reason Doctor Pat was able to run off such a lenient mark at Sandown is that the official distances in the race he ran against Cyrlight were wrong. They show Doctor Pat as getting beat fifteen and a half lengths. This is totally wrong. If you use a stopwatch to clock the time between Doctor Pat and Cyrlight crossing the line you'll find that it was 2.1 seconds (I timed it three times to be sure). Over jumps 0.25 of a second is officially counted as a length. 2.1 divided by 0.25 is 8.4 lengths.

The other reason Doctor Pat got away with such a low weight at Sandown is that the British handicappers seem to under-rate French form. The horse which finished second to Doctor Pat at Sandown had exploited this by winning another novices' handicap chase on his first UK start just a week before.

I'm talking about RIVALISTE (37) who jumped well and looked sure to succeed till Doctor Pat staged his dramatic late charge.

Rivaliste is a tall, long striding chasing sort that had won nicely at Newbury. He showed significant improvement on his hurdles form when switched to chasing for the first time at Compiegne on his next to last start for former handler Guillame Macaire.

In that race Rivaliste set a strong pace and again jumped really well, just as he did later at Newbury and Sandown. The only time a rival tried to draw alongside he was asked for a big jump and gained a length in the air.

Rivaliste continued to give an exhibition round for the remainder of the contest and had run his rivals ragged by the time they jumped the last. On the run in his jockey took four looks back over his shoulders but never saw anything that prompted him to draw his whip. He allowed Rivaliste to fairly saunter home.

In a recent interview Paul Nicholls said of Rivaliste "I like this one a lot and he is worth looking out for in novice chases." Clearly he was right. Rivaliste is a good deal better than his handicap mark implies and jumps like an old hand. He's certainly capable of taking a Grade 2 or 3 novice chase.

Third placed LATANIER (36) isn't very strong up front. He has made the running in all his four wins to date but the tactic may not have been the best one this time as he had to head off the bigger, stronger Rivaliste early and that one kept outjumping him. Latanier hit one jump after another and showed tremendous gameness to keep on well for third. He was unlucky to come up against two pattern class rivals in a race like this and would be a slam dunk to win a similar contest - perhaps on a less testing track.

BOYLESPORTS NOT THE RIGHT RACE FOR SEVEN IS MY NUMBER

SEVEN IS MY NUMBER (40) clocked a time that puts him within hailing distance of the very best three mile chasers when winning the Intermediate Chase at Sandown's Tingle Creek meeting. The race has just been upgraded to Listed class thanks to the fact it's produced several high class winners in recent years. Seven My Number is undoubtedly another.

In a race run at a good pace Seven Is My Number was obviously going best from about a mile out. He moved through to lead early in the straight, came clear and scored fairly comfortably.

My read of Seven Is My Number is that he's not at his best in big fields. He did win a thirteen runner maiden hurdle but has lost the other seven times he's run in fields of twelve or more.

Seven Is My Number did also lose a race with just ten runners. But he finished tailed off last that day as favourite and was off for nearly ten months afterwards. So it's a safe bet he had some sort of physical problem that day. He's won the other six times he's tackled fields of eleven or less - eleven being the most common cut off point for horses that prefer small fields.

This run proved that Seven Is My Number gets three miles at a good pace on soft ground. And it was much his best ever run. So I don't think it's a smart move cutting him back to two and a half miles for the Boylesports Gold Cup. That race is likely to feature a field that's too big for him anyway.

If he were mine I'd be inclined to forget about trying to exploit Seven Is My Number's low official rating in handicaps and shoot for Conditions Chases over three miles. It wouldn't take much improvement for him to beat Gold Cup horses over three miles.

The other horse to take out of the race for me is TATENEN (38). This Paul Nicholls trained five year old has strengthened up and grown remarkably in the last eighteen months or so and is now quite an imposing specimen. He was always tall but has now filled his frame.

Tatenen has the build of a three miler and took this field along at a very decent pace. I kept wondering through the race whether he might actually be going a step too fast. But I don't think this is why he tired up the straight. As I see it, the steep uphill finish was the cause.

When he was a juvenile hurdler Tatenen stopped alarmingly up Cheltenham's finishing hill when he'd previously looked to be going well. He did win a novice chase there last year, but there were only four runners that day and the runner up Straw Bear has now demonstrated that he's nowhere near as good over fences as he was over hurdles.

With his big stride and a frame that's still kind of gangly and shows a lack of strength up front (and probably always will) Tatenen looks to me like a horse that is going to be best on dead flat tracks where he doesn't have to speed up or slow down or face an uphill finish. He's built to generate a strong, sustained pace and a flat track is the place he can do that.

So far Tatenen has won three of the four times he's run over jumps on flat courses. His sole loss was a second place finish in a Grade 1 over an inadequate two miles. I hope his connections don't get misled into dropping him back to two and a half miles as a result of this run as his physique screams three miles is his right trip.

The race I'd be aiming Tatenen at would be the Totesport Bowl over three miles and a furlong at the Aintree Festival. I'd skip the Cheltenham Festival to keep him fresh for that. He's previously run as fast as last year's winner Madison du Berlais on my ratings and would have a real shot. Next year the King George or the Lexus would be good targets if he does as well as I think he might.

TWIST MAGIC LIKE AN UNSTOPPABLE TRAIN OVER RAILWAY FENCES

TWIST MAGIC (36) proved once more that he's almost unbeatable in two mile chases at Sandown when winning the Tinge Creek for a second time. He's now won three of the four times he's run on the course and would have been a very good second to Master Minded if he hadn't tipped up in the same race last year.

This race made it obvious that it's the Railway fences down the far side of the course at Sandown that make Twist Magic so hard to catch at the course. They're closer together than the fences at any other track and amplify the edge that Twist Magic's fast and accurate jumping gives him.

Twist Magic has always been a short runner. He's often had trouble lasting even two miles elsewhere in very strongly run races. But the Railway fences come so close together they prevent the horses free-wheeling and going too fast for a big part of the race. In addition, this time around Twist Magic was allowed to get away with setting a slow early pace. He didn't start running at top speed till they reached the fourth jump by which time the field had gone seven furlongs. From there Twist Magic came home 0.85 of a second quicker than the novices did in the hot Grade 2 earlier on the card but still ended up clocking a time 1.8 second slower than them thanks to the moderate early gallop he'd been allowed to set.

I've often said that if there were 1m 6f chases Twist Magic would be unbeatable. He certainly proved that here when winning by fifteen lengths.

There doesn't seem to be much point going for the Champion Chase with Twist Magic as he's pretty much established he can't last home at Cheltenham. So it's obvious his one big remaining target for the season just has to be the Celebration Chase back at Sandown in April. If he runs a few clunkers between now and then I wouldn't worry. Back over the Railway fences he should be very hard to beat.

It was interesting to hear that Twist Magic is likely to be seen next at Leopardstown in the Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase on December 27th. He's never run at the course before but, despite turning in the other direction, it was modeled on Sandown Park, so it could suit him very well. The big concern is that the race is over two miles and a furlong. The only time Twist Magic has won an inch beyond two miles was over two miles and 110 yards in a novice chase at Fakenham, Britain's tightest track.

Trainer Thomas Cooper had warned beforehand that he was worried about the soft going for his charge FORPADYDEPLASTERER (30). And he clearly didn't get home in the ground.

Forpadydeplasterer has been unlucky to encounter soft and heavy ground so often in his career. The only time he's run on a faster surface in his eight chase starts was in the Arkle, which of course he won. His Grade 1 win over hurdles also came on ground faster than soft. It could well be therefore that we won't see the best of him again till the ground dries out in the Spring.

WELL CHIEF (24) was always likely to be vulnerable being brought back to the races just twenty days after his last start. He did win a couple of races as a novice when he didn't have a break of five weeks or more since his last completed start. But his form figures since then off a shorter break read 3F2F4. He's now won eight of his ten jump starts when he's come into the race off a break of five weeks or more since his last completed start. One of his losses was a head defeat when he made a hash of a fence. The other was that bang up second to Master Minded off a two year break in last year's Champion Chase.

It is extremely rare for a former star to win another Grade 1 after returning from injury following a long break at nine years of age or more. But Well Chief showed something close to his best at Cheltenham in his comeback race. I'd bet on him doing so again after he's been rested.

BIG ZEB (20) ran shockingly below form to finish a distant fourth after making jumping errors.

I know the general view is that Big Zeb has made mistakes in the past and was stretched into more this time by the pace Twist Magic set down the far side. However I cannot accept this is the reason he ran so far below his best. I've seen horses win Grade 1's after jumping errors far worse than those Big Zeb made here. And any horse that can win a Grade 1 around Punchestown is a slam dunk to jump the fences at Sandown which have claimed only two thirds the percentage of fallers over the last fourteen years.

As I see it trainer Colm Murphy got it right when suggesting that the cause of Big Zeb's poor run was the 27 day break since his last outing.

Almost all the top two mile chasers are best when they're fresh. Normally this means their first two completed starts of the season and a five week plus break between their completed starts thereafter. But there are plenty of variations on this theme. So we now need to figure out just how big a break Big Zeb is going to need to run well again.

One reasonable answer seems to be 31 days. Big Zeb might well have won seven of his eight chase and hurdle starts over two miles following a break of 31 days or more since his last completed start if he hadn't twice fallen when going well. However it's also true that the only three wins Big Zeb has scored since his novice days have all come off breaks longer than 100 days since his last completed start. He's unbeaten in four chase and hurdle starts off rests that long.

My inclination is to go with a bigger number as 31 days is an unusually short rest period for the best two mile chasers. The vast majority need longer. Also, when they don't get it they tend to do what Big Zeb did here and jump poorly.

My theory is that the top two mile chasers needs rests to enable the glycogen supplies in their fast twitch muscles to build up. It is these muscles they need to ping the fences at the speed it takes to win big two mile chases. In this regard it is interesting to note that Big Zeb has fallen four of the eight times he's run in a chase less than six weeks after his last outing over fences. This being so my best guess is that Big Zeb needs six weeks before his next start to run well again - unless that is he switches to hurdles and doesn't have to use the same muscles he uses for jumping fences. This trick seemed to work last year when he so nearly beat Master Minded just fifteen days after a win over hurdles.

As far as I'm concerned Big Zeb remains the most likely winner of the Champion Chase. If he goes into the race off a break of six weeks or more I'd bet on him winning. So the 10-1 the bookies are now offering about his chances looks awfully big.

The horse that really got stretched when Twist Magic stepped on the gas down the far side was MAHOGANY BLAZE (12). He's an oddity for a high class two mile chaser in that he's never been able to ping the fences at speed. For this reason he doesn't need to be fresh. What he does seem to need are fences that are so stiff the other runners have to slow down to jump them. In Britain fences this stiff are only found at Aintree, Ayr, Doncaster, Kempton, Lingfield and Wincanton judged by the percentage of fallers. This being so I have to reiterate that Mahogany Blaze looks a very interesting candidate for the Desert Orchid Chase over Christmas at Kempton, a track where he's won both his starts over fences so far.

TCHICO POLOS IS EXCEPTIONALLY FAST

When studying the form for the Henry VIII Novice's Chase at Sandown I spotted something truly amazing about the win TCHICO POLOS (38) had scored at Exeter on his most recent start.

Watch the video of that race and listen to the commentator and you'll get a clue about what I discovered when he says Tchico Polos was "taking a pretty keen hold" jumping the first and still "fighting the rider slightly" jumping the second.

At the third fence Tchico Polos was given his head by his rider. They'd only run a couple of furlongs at that point, but the way he'd been held back by his jockey had cost Tchico Polos about 3.5 seconds. If you clock the race from the third fence you'll find that he got home from there in 3m 28.85 seconds. That's exactly the same as they took in the previous race, the Grade 2 Haldon Gold Cup where they went a decent pace from the start.

I know from studying sectional times in jump races that those first couple of furlongs made a negligible difference to the energy he and the Haldon Gold Cup winner used. It had much more effect on their respective times. So it is fair to say that if they ran in the same race they would have just about dead heated. And seeing how much easier Tchico Polos was going at the finish I'm betting he'd have won. But let's just say they dead heated. That would merit a speed rating of 41 for Tchico Polos, which put him ahead of everything he met at Sandown.

Could the race that Tchico Polos won be that good? Yes I think so. I rate the runner up Dee Ee Williams a proper Grade 1 horse on my speed ratings. He just needs a strongly run race to show his ability but rarely gets it. The third and fourth each went on to win next time and both look decent Cheltenham prospects.

I loved the way Tchico Polos jumped the fences down the far side at Exeter at terrific speed while piling the pressure on his rivals and going even further clear than he was already. It was easy to picture him doing something similar here when they tackled the Railway fences.

Sure enough Tchico Polos went well clear and set a really strong pace. And this proved his undoing. He never allowed himself a breather at any stage and demonstrated he doesn't wear that cross noseband for nothing. He pulls like a train.

Tchico Polos tired up the straight, allowing the eventual second and third to join him at the last and then get away from him up the final climb to the finish.

I can see why front running tactics are being used on Tchico Polos. If you wrestle a hard puller like him to the back of the field early they simply end up fighting the jockey all the way till you allow them their head late in the race. They then gain ground rapidly but are hard to win with. A good example of this is Father Time, another horse that wears a cross noseband. He has any amount of ability but has managed just one win in his last seven starts.

Tchico Polos was dropped out early in his two French races and finished really well both times. But he showed nothing like the form he has in Britain when allowed his head.

My thinking right now is that since Tchico Polos cannot be restrained effectively by his jockey he needs the track to do it for him. In other words he needs tight turns or undulations which force him to slow down. Horses slow up by 0.6 of a second or more when they have to negotiate a tight turn and by two seconds or more on a prolonged downhill section on a track.

So far Tchico Polos has run four times on undulating tracks or ones eleven furlongs or less in circumference, and he's won all four times. On other courses he's blanked in five tries.

Seeing that he has jumped to the right several times and has been kept to right handed courses for all but one of his runs it's easy to conclude that Tchico Polos is best going that way. But, though he did jump right the only time he ran on a left-handed track at Kelso, the prolonged downhill section helped him win comfortably by seven lengths. This being so I'm not yet convinced he is not an Arkle candidate. It's possible he may throw the race away by jumping right at Cheltenham. But that long downhill run leaving the far side could also help him greatly.

SOMERSBY (40) won the Henry VIII in a time that puts him within hailing distance of the Arkle favourite Sizing Europe. And it was hard not to be taken with the way he traveled so smoothly and jumped so well at the scorching pace Tchico Polos set.

However I have a couple of problems with Somersby as an Arkle candidate.

The first is that the Henry VIII is a very different kid of race to the Arkle. It's run on a park course which emphasises fast jumping rather than stamina. This is surely why only one Henry VIII winner has gone on to win the Arkle in the last twenty years (from fourteen attempts).

The second problem I have with Somersby as an Arkle candidate is the way he lost ground coming down the hill in the Supreme Novices at the Cheltenham Festival last year. Yes he picked up again well to finish third but it does look like he's not ideally suited to the course.

Somersby is a good-bodied sort that looks built for two and a half miles, maybe even longer. His pedigree points that way too. All but one of his sire's best NH runners have stayed two and a half miles and he's the first foal of a dam that's a full sister to last season's RSA Chase third. However Somersby tired badly the one time he tried two and a half miles. And the fact that he seems to be best fresh, like most good two mile chasers, is more evidence that he's a specialist at the minimum distance.

The most likely Arkle candidate in the race is runner up CRACK AWAY JACK (39). He won't have any problem going left handed or running downhill at Cheltenham. And he looks sure to improve on the faster surface that normally prevails at the Cheltenham Festival. Plus he clearly stays longer than two miles, just like many Arkle winners.

I've noted before that a horse with a turn of foot as good as Crack Away Jack has needs a reasonably fast surface to produce it. Trainer Emma Lavelle says the horse finds it much harder jumping out of soft ground too (hence his lack of fluency here).

It was impressive how Crack Away Jack rallied from being three lengths down two out to put himself level at the last. On a quicker surface he'd probably have been able to really ping the fences like the winner and produce a better finish.