UK FEBRUARY 05

CHAUVINIST LOOKS INTERESTING FOR AINTREE

CHAUVINIST (37) won a Sandown novice chase in pattern class time, showing once again that he's a useful horse with cut in the ground. My read of Chauvinist's form is that he's best fresh and runs to what I call the rest pattern. That is he's good for his first two runs of the season but then needs a break of at least five weeks between his completed starts to run well again. He's won five times out of six when he's run to this pattern on yielding or softer ground and finished a length second to a Grade 1 winner in his sole loss. I'd like to see him rested till Aintree now, and if the ground is soft there, he'd be rather interesting.

CAPTAIN CORELLI (37) blew away a decent field of novice chasers in unusually fast time at Haydock. He is clearly improving and now looks rather interesting for the big new novice handicap chase at the Cheltenham Festival.

L'ANGE AU CIEL (37) beat the useful Supreme Developer at Sandown, taking his record up to four wins from four completed starts. He was on his way to losing the only time he tried a longer trip. so it looks like two miles is his distance. He's apparently difficult to train but clearly has a good deal of ability.

SUPREME DEVELOPER (37) ran a bit below the form he showed when chasing home Pak Jack last time but ran his third big race in a row since being cut back to two miles. It looks likely that he's a slightly better horse on faster ground, so I wouldn't write off his chances of at least placing in the Arkle.

I confess I don't understand MONDUL (37). But I have to note him as a horse worth following after the fast time he recorded to win a decent Fontwell novice chase. Clearly Mondul needs soft ground. And my best guess is that nowadays he also needs longer than the minimum distance.

Runner-up SLEEP BAL (36) might also appreciate cut in the ground seeing that he's had joint problems and lost all his runs on good or faster going. If he can adapt to the likely firmer surface at the Cheltenham Festival he'd have a serious chance in the Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase.

THE BUTTERWICK KID (38) was unlucky to be disqualified for taking the wrong course in a Newcastle hunter chase. He actually ran a bit further than his rivals and still ended up a big margin winner in remarkably fast time.

The Butterwick Kid may be twelve but is clearly as good as ever according to my ratings. In fact he's just gone and topped the biggest speed rating I've awarded a hunter-chaser in years.

The trouble with The Butterwick Kid is that unless he gets a really stiff track and yielding or softer ground he's really not that good. However, he has won impressively the last four times he's run on stiff chase tracks with cut in the ground. I would regard him as unbeatable in hunter chases at Carlisle, Cheltenham, Hexham and Newcastle when the going is good to soft or softer.

Unlike The Butterwick Kid, BOHEMIAN SPIRIT (37) has no major quirks about going and track lay-out. He's a whole lot younger too. He was three lengths down when tipping up at the last and on his way to clocking a sensational time.

Bohemian Spirit may well dislike jumping left-handed. He's failed to complete both times he's run in chases on right handed tracks but is still unbeaten in five completed hunter chases and point to points at trips short of three and a half miles - a trip he didn't seem to stay when favourite for the novice hunter chasers championship, the John Corbet Cup, in May.

Bohemian Spirit had run unusually fast times for a hunter chaser before this race. And he was sold for what must have been a large sum recently. He was led out unsold at the sales for 52,000 guineas, so almost certainly fetched more when brought privately. My research shows that horses which sell for more than 50,000 guineas to jumping stables are worth following, and I suspect Bohemian Spirit will be.

Bohemian Spirit looks rather a classy young hunter chaser who I'd expect to see graduate to good handicap and conditions chases. Until he does I would not care to oppose him.

Joly Bey (37) won a class B three mile chase at Sandown in decent time. But there are plenty of horses at his class level that routinely run as fast, so I can't nominate him as one to follow.

One horse I'd avoid like the plague is It Takes Time (35) who won what turned out to be a very soft Grade 1 chase at Lingfield. This was his first win in ten races and I doubt that he'll be winning again soon if he's kept to this sort of class.

The going was really heavy judged by race times at Uttoxeter, and that suited OSSMOSES (37) and TOULOUSE-LAUTREC (37) who fought out the finish of an above average class C handicap chase. If either of this pair encounter bottomless ground again they could easily win a big staying chase.

The ground could not have helped Irish raider HOWAYA PET (35) who nonetheless managed a decent third. This smart mare has won the last four times she's run on yielding or softer going but lost all twelve times she's encountered softer ground over fences. She's worth watching out for seeing that the going invariably gets quicker in the Spring.

CERIUM (37) earned a huge speed rating for a juvenile hurdler when scoring at Wincanton. This was the second time that he's run really fast and he clearly has a solid chance in the Triumph if he can handle the ground. He won on what I rated to be soft ground here. He has won on what my going allowance indicates was genuinely good ground at Kempton. But it's normally a bit quicker than that at the Cheltenham Festival and trainer Paul Nicholls has expressed concerns about that. It could well be therefore that his best chance of a Grade 1 win lies at the Aintree or Punchestown Festivals where he's more likely to get softer ground.

PARTY BOSS (35) earned an unusually big speed rating for a three year old this early in the year when scoring his third win in a row at Wolverhampton. I wouldn't care to oppose him right now.

AZERTYUIOP AND WELL CHIEF AREN'T AS FAST AS MOSCOW FLYER

I've said before that I'm convinced Well Chief (39) is best fresh. Like a lot of the best two mile chasers he seems to run to what I call the rest pattern. That is, he's good for his first two runs off a break of three months or more but then needs a rest of at least five weeks between his completed starts to run well again. He's won eight times out of twelve when he's been fresh in this way but just one time out of ten when he hasn't. This being so, I was disappointed to see him line up for the Game Spirit Chase just a fortnight after his big win last time. I figured he would run below form and blow his chances in the Two Mile Champion Chase in the process. And I think that's just what he did.

Well Chief managed second, ran a fair bit slower by my estimates than he has at his best. So I don't think Azertyuiop (40) achieved that much to beat him. That's what my interpretation of the time of the race says anyhow. As I've mentioned many times before, Azertyuiop's biggest speed ratings have all been earned in defeat. He looks great beating up on second rank or out of form rivals. But when he faces an in form high class opponent he gets beat. As I see it, he's one of the most over-rated horses we've seen in recent years, and the only way he'll beat Moscow Flyer at Cheltenham is if that one falls.

The Game Spirit also confirmed that Armaturk is in serious need of a break and that Mister McGoldrick really does need cut in the ground.

FARMER JACK (41) won the Aon Chase in solid Grade 2 time. My read of his form is that he's best on a flat track and in a small field (nine runners or less). So I'd agree with his trainer's view that his best chances of another win lie at Kepton and Aintree rather than Cheltenham. In fact, he's likely to meet a big field in the Racing Post Chase at Cheltenham, so I'd bet on a re-occurrence of the jumping problems that have beset him in all his six runs in chases with ten runners or more since winning a moderate novice event from a big field back in 2002. Small fields are the norm for Aintree's Martell Cup though, so I'd be wary of dismissing him there.

STRONG FLOW (40) was reportedly blowing hard after the race, so his runner-up placing was a good effort. He's earned speed ratings as high as 43 from me in the past and looks to be working his way back to that level now. I can't knock his chance of winning the Gold Cup off this run.

Celestial Gold (40) earned the same speed rating from me for the third time in a row, confirming my view expressed here earlier, that he's going to be hard to place from now on. The clock says he's only a Grade 2 horse but he looks likely to keep on tackling the very top chasers.

SIR REMBRANDT (36) ran as well as could be expected over a trip that's clearly on the short side for him. He's won two of his four completed starts at three and a quarter miles or more and lost by just half a length in his two defeats (including that big run in the Gold Cup last year). It's easy to dismiss him as just a plodder who needs a marathon trip. But he nearly won the big race last year after running far worse in this race in his prep.

OVER THE CREEK (40) was the biggest surprise of the week on the clock. This Martin Pipe inmate earned one of the biggest speed ratings I've awarded a novice hurdler this season when taking a three mile handicap hurdle at Newbury.

My big concern about Over The Creek is that Martin Pipe describes him as 'big and weak'. Horses that are big and weak often need to be kept fresh to run to their best. And the only explanation I can come up with for Over The Creek's sole loss in four starts this term is that it's the only race where he wasn't fresh. This being so, I have to worry that Cheltenham is going to come a bit soon for the horse. But Over The Creek ran so fast, and the evidence for him needing rests on just one race, so I still must recommend him as one to follow.

Runner-up ONE COSMO TOUCH (39) would have been an 18 length winner if Over The Creek hadn't lined up. He's clearly a very smart staying hurdler as long as the ground is good as it was here. His official handicap rating currently understates his ability by an enormous margin, so I can see One Cosmo Touch winning a whole bunch of races, and quite possibly a big handicap if he can avoid yielding or softer ground.

MONTIFAULT (37) ran extraordinarily fast to win a Ludlow Hunter Chase by a distance. In fact, he earned the biggest speed rating I've given a hunter chaser in the last five years.

Fast times are rare in hunter chases, and this one shows that Montifault is the horse to beat in this sphere. I would not oppose him from now on. I am fervently hoping that he goes for the Aintree Foxhunters as he's shown he can jump the big National fences and will be ideally suited by the distance of the race. I'm not quite convinced that he is at his best over the longer trip he'd have to run over in the equivalent race at Cheltenham.

Another interesting pointer to come out of Montifault's race concerns his jockey, Coleman Sweeney. The fast time suggests he's an amateur to follow. I say this because the average amateur rider's chase is run about three seconds a mile slower than a chase of equivalent class involving professional jockeys. I've long felt that the reason for this discrepancy is that few amateurs are prepared to push a horse at speed towards a fence like a professional, especially in the latter part of a race when the runners are tiring and in danger of falling. This clearly doesn't apply to Coleman Sweeney. So I strongly suspect that you'll come out ahead if you simply bet all his hunter chase mounts blindly for the rest of this season. He's almost certainly going to get the strongest book of rides with Paul Nicholls team to draw on, and the clock indicates he has the skill to take advantage of it.

When a horse improves as LIVERPOOL ECHO (37) did to win a decent novice chase at Kempton it's a good idea to try to figure out why. His connections apparently thinks he moved up because the ground was a bit faster than in his recent starts. I don't see much evidence to support that argument though. Right now all I can do is guess, and my best guess would be that he's a bit too cautious at his jumps and that this costs him ground over normal fences. After all he has never failed to complete in eleven jumps starts to date, which is a bit unusual. And the fences at Kempton have claimed the sixth highest percentage of fallers among UK chase tracks over the past decade. Until I'm proved wrong I'll favor Liverpool Echo over the bigger fences to be found at Aintree, Ayr, Doncaster, Kempton, Lingfield and Wincanton. I'd also fancy his chances in Ireland where the fences have not been made easier in recent years as they have in Britain. This means I'll be opposing him at Cheltenham in his target race, the Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase.

Runner-up COPSALE LAD (36) was noticeably cautious in his jumping. But in his case this was probably because he'd blundered badly and scared himself last time. To get so close to such a useful horse while spending so much time in the air was meritorious. He ought to have no trouble winning next time and is probably going to prove good enough to win a big handicap or a Grade 3 at least.

ONEWAY IS TOP CLASS

ONEWAY (42) extended his unbeaten streak to five this season when taking a red hot two mile chase at Sandown. In doing so he earned a Grade 1 speed rating from me.

Oneway holds an entry for the Two Mile Champion Chase and would actually have a chance on the clock. But I hope his trainer follows the old adage of keeping yourself in the best company and your horses in the worst and runs him in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham. I much prefer to see horses stepped up gradually in class, and Oneway would surely have a far better chance in the handicap rather than the championship event at this stage.

I had thought that runner-up IMPEK (41) would be very hard to beat, and he certainly ran a big race, confirming that he's as good as ever.

Impek has a great record when fresh on right-handed tracks. But two things obscure this in my opinion. The first is that his trainer said after his latest win "He needs kid gloves. He is so delicate he probably won't eat for a week." In this regard I suspect that being a delicate horse, he may not like traveling far from his home base. His record certainly seems to suggest as much. In ten runs on tracks two hours or more away from his stable he's lost every time. He's won six out of 16 on nearby tracks.

Another conclusion I've made about Impek also stems from a comment by his trainer earlier in his chase career. At that time she said "the first time we schooled him over fences he put the brakes on." This makes me worry that he doesn't like jumping in a crowd. Again, his record indicates this is a valid concern. He won a poor maiden hurdle in a big field. Otherwise in fields of eight or more he has blanked in twelve tries. He's won five times out of fourteen in fields of seven or less.

Like a lot of smart two mile chasers, Impek appears to run to what I call the rest pattern. That is, he's good for his first two starts off a long break (3 months plus) but then needs a gap of at least five weeks between his completed starts to run well again.

If you toss out races at distant tracks, those on left-handed tracks, jump races with eight or more runners and any contest where he wasn't fresh you'll find that Impek's remaining form figures read 111311115222. In other words, he's scored seven times out of twelve in his favoured circumstances. One of his losses was over three miles, which he almost certainly doesn't stay in a true run race. Another was a second in a Grade 1 race, and another was second in a 75,000 pound contest that really ought to have Grade 1 status. The latest loss was his second place finish to Oneway in Grade 1 time.

I do hope Impek skips Cheltenham and is kept fresh for the valuable two mile chase on the closing day of the season back at Sandown. He'd have a serious chance there according to my ratings if the field was small enough.

A lot of the top two mile chasers are like Impek in that they go best fresh.. Third-placed GREAT TRAVEL (41) is certainly this way inclined according to his trainer. He ran a big race off a ten week break.

I suspect that Great Travel is one of those horses that idles when they see too much daylight. He looked to be going best between the last two but was just outrun. I'd bet that the small field was the problem. After all, Great Travel has won the last three times he's run in fields of 11 or more but lost the last four times he's run in smaller fields. This is significant for a horse with such a high level of ability. If he's kept fresh and runs in a bigger field next time (probably in a handicap) I'd be wary of betting against him.

TRIBAL VENTURE (36) ran a decent time to take a three mile novice chase at Kempton. I wish I could say I understood the horse well enough to suggest what circumstances suit his best. But he's so lightly raced I can only speculate at this stage. All I can say is that Tribal Venture is pattern class. He is due to run in the Racing Post Chase which should tell us more about him.

LONGSHANKS (36) ran a pattern class time to take a handicap chase at Kempton. His biggest asset would appear to be his sound jumping. He almost won the Topham Trophy last year and consistently wins or goes close on tracks with fences that claim a high percentage of fallers. In the UK the tracks which claim the highest percentage of fallers are Aintree, Ayr, Doncaster, Kempton, Lingfield, Musselburgh and Wincanton. I suspect that if you bet Longshanks in chases at these tracks and oppose him on others you'll come out ahead over the next couple of years.

Novice handicap chases are usually abysmal affairs, but the one CHEF TARTARE (36) won at Chepstow on his chasing debut was run in pattern class time. What makes his effort all the more interesting is that the race was run over only two miles and it looks likely that he wants further.

On his chasing debut over two and a quarter miles back in June, Chef Tartare stayed on strongly to just miss second to Milou Des Enceints who was beaten just a length over fences recently by the smart Sleeping Jack in the Grade 3 Grand Prix de Pau.

Chef Tartare's sire, Nikos, was a 7f-1m performer on the flat, and a fair slice of his best offspring have been two mile chasers (though he's had a couple of three milers including the smart Eric's Charm). However, Chef Tartare's dam was a real stayer who won three times over 2m 1f on the flat. She has previously produced a sister to Chef Tartare. This was Mascara whose only win came at the longest distance she tried - 2m 5f. I would therefore anticipate that Chef Tartare will improve a little over two and a half miles and might even stay three. His official handicap mark currently understates his actual ability by a large amount according to my ratings, so I imagine his connections will continue to go the handicap route with him.

Self Defense (16) has a great record in tiny fields (seven or less) and was clearly the one most suited to a farcically slow run Agfa Hurdle. No doubt he'll pop up again at nice odds when he hits another tactically run conditions race, on the flat or over hurdles. But races with seven or fewer runners are not that common, so I can't recommend Self Defense as a horse to follow in the immediate future.

I always feel a tinge of regret when I see an AW performance as good as that put up by ECCENTRIC (40) at Lingfield. The regret is because there are just not enough opportunities on dirt in Europe to keep such a horse racing over here. He is almost certainly going to join the ranks of horse's like River Keen, Hal's Pal and Running Stag who have won millions for their owners by switching to American rather than thousands by staying at home.

Eccentric bolted home by six lengths, smashing the 16 year old course record for the mile in the process. What makes the performance all the more amazing is that Eccentric has shown that he stays ten furlongs. In fact , following an initial defeat at a longer trip, Eccentric has remained unbeaten in three starts at a mile or more since. He has lost the last eight runs he's had at shorter trips.

Another amazing thing about Eccentric's runaway win is that he made all the running at a strong pace. Normally this is a suicidal tactic on the Polytrack. I can only wonder what he will do in America, especially in California, where the tracks show a huge bias towards horses with early speed.

The obvious target for Eccentric now is the Winter Derby. No doubt a few Group racers will come out of the woodwork to contest that race. There may also be some challengers from Germany, which stages the best AW racing in Europe. But right now, I'm wishing that somebody would offer ante-post betting on the race. I suspect I could get something like 5-1 for Eccentric, and if anybody offered it I'd bite their arm off to get it.

At Southwell we saw a freakishly good performance for a Banded stakes when SIR BOND (34) scored in fast time. In fact, I awarded Sir Bond the biggest speed rating I've ever given a winner of one of these bottom of the barrel events.

Sir Bond was only having his fifth lifetime start, and his first in ten months. Previously, according to trainer Bryan Smart, he'd been very weak and immature. Lately though he has matured and been working well at home. Clearly he has improved massively and is far better than the dreadful horses that contest class H regional contests. Quite how good he really is I can't say, since he won with something in hand. But on my ratings he could win a decent class D contest and would be a mortal lock to follow up this win in anything below that class.

Flat racers are not supposed to improve when they're eight years of age, but that's exactly what QUANTUM LEAP (36) is doing according to my speed ratings. If a couple of photo finishes hadn't gone the wrong way he would have been winning for the fifth time in his last six starts at Lingfield last Saturday. The race he took was only a class E contest, and my ratings suggest he'd be competitive in class C. So far the only AW track he's run on has been Lingfield's Polytrack. But the going was unusually slow last Saturday, so I suspect he could also handle the slightly slower Polytrack at Wolverhampton as well.

ONEWAY IS TOP CLASS

ONEWAY (42) extended his unbeaten streak to five this season when taking a red hot two mile chase at Sandown. In doing so he earned a Grade 1 speed rating from me.

I had thought that runner-up IMPEK (41) would be very hard to beat, and he certainly ran a big race, confirming that he's as good as ever.

If you toss out races at distant tracks, those on left-handed tracks, jump races with eight or more runners and any contest where he wasn't fresh you'll find that Impek's remaining form figures read 111311115222. In other words, he's scored seven times out of twelve in his favored circumstances. One of his losses was over three miles, which he almost certainly doesn't stay in a true run race. Another was a second in a Grade 1 race, and another was second in a 75,000 pound contest that really ought to have Grade 1 status. The latest loss was his second place finish to Oneway in Grade 1 time.

AMBOBO SETS THE STANDARD FOR SUN ALLIANCE HURDLE

AMBOBO (43) ran extraordinarily fast for a novice hurdler when winning a very competitive Grade 2 contest at Cheltenham. He'd earned one of the top speed ratings I've given a novice hurdler this season when hammering the smart My Way De Solzen at Clairefontaine but topped even that effort by some way here.

Ambobo would probably be unbeaten in all of his six hurdle runs so far if his jockey hadn't lost his whip when losing narrowly at Bordeaux a couple of runs back. He now ranks as the fastest novice hurdler on my speed ratings and looks the one they all have to beat in the Sun Alliance Hurdle over the same course and distance in March. He has won on fast ground, just like his sire and dam did, so I see no reason why he shouldn't reproduce this form on the likely faster ground at the Festival.

Grade 1 winner BREWSTER (42) ran a big race to finish second and looks very capable of winning once more at the highest level when he gets the soft ground he appears to need. No doubt he'll get outpaced on fast ground back at Cheltenham in March, but thereafter I'd be wary of opposing him at longer trips when there's cut in the ground. Brewster is bred for chasing, and looks a terrific long term prospect for the bigger jumps.

Ebor winner MEPHISTO (39) put up the best performance we've seen from a hurdling debutante in quite some time to finish third. What made it even more remarkable is that it came following a five month break. Mephisto has won all five times he's gone 12 furlongs or more when he's run within the last month but never won off a longer rest. Logically therefore he ought to show more than normal improvement next time. Indeed, I can see him turning the tables on the winner. Certainly he looks a big player in the top novice hurdles to come.

LADY ZEPHYR (38) showed that she's probably the best female novice hurdler in Britain by finishing fourth. But the truth is all her six wins to date have been in mares only races. She'd be lucky to find a Graded novice hurdle against males that she could win. And if she did she would blow her current handicap mark which looks exceptionally lenient to me. If she were mine I'd be switching her to handicap company and looking for some valuable longer distance hurdle where I could exploit her low official rating.

Ladalko (37) equaled his best speed figure so far to run fifth. Quite where he goes from here I don't know. The clock and the form book say pretty clearly that he's not good enough to beat top class rivals over hurdles. So I suspect that it's time he was switched back to fences.

BUBBLE BOY (39) scored at odds of 100-1 on his chasing debut, but he ran a whole lot faster than any 100-1 shot I can remember. In fact, among the longer distance novice chasers, only Cornish Rebel has run faster by my estimates, and by a single point at that (or a length per mile).

Runner-up DISTANT THUNDER (39) has been unlucky to finish second to top class rivals in four of his five chase starts to date. He is almost certainly the best maiden around in the chasing ranks and is well capable of winning a decent Graded event. His trainer has mentioned before that he didn't travel well when losing badly at Haydock last year. I note with interest that his two worst runs have now come on the tracks furthest from his stables while here he equaled his biggest lifetime speed rating on the course closest to his home base. This being so I'd oppose Distant Thunder if he travels up North again and bet him to run his best closer to home on the Southern tracks.

Locksmith (36) is another novice chaser that ran a decent time last week. But he keeps on hitting the same speed figure, which only marks him out as Listed class. I'd therefore be most surprised if he proved good enough to be competitive in the Arkle.

VOY POR USTEDES (36) beat a decent rival in fast time at Huntingdon. This is not that surprising. He was one of the top juvenile hurdlers in Europe and had run much faster over hurdles than any rival he faced at the Cambridgeshire track (he actually earned a speed rating of 37 from me back in November and normal improvement would see him hit around 39). Four runs back he ran a close third to the brilliant Danaw at Enghien in the joint fastest juvenile hurdle run in Britain, Ireland or France this season. You don't have to believe my speed ratings either. Danaw went on to win a hot Group 3 hurdle next time and has now been awarded an official French handicap mark equal to 158 - far bigger than most Triumph Hurdle winners.

Voy Pur Estedes tipped up on his hurdles (and racecourse) debut, probably needed his next start when third, won well next time, then ran third to Danaw before winning again next time. He tipped up on his first UK start but showed he's a very smart hurdler here. The caveat is that former trainer Francois Doumena advised new handler Alan King that Voy Por Ustedes is best on dead flat tracks. For this reason King favours Aintree rather than Cheltenham for his new charge. This will mean he'll be able to sidestep another clash with Danaw.

DANAW himself looked a cert on the clock to win the at Cheltenham a few days later. But he only finished ninth. However I'm now convinced that a theory developed by a friend of mine explains his poor showing. The theory is that since juvenile hurdlers are smaller and less mature than older jumpers they really have to exert themselves to get over the big hurdles that they have in France. As a result when they first run in Britain they initially tend to over jump the flimsy obstacles they are presented with, wasting valuable energy and ground in the process. If you doubt the theory, consider the first UK hurdle runs of Danaw, L'Oudon and Voy Por Ustedes who ran 1-2-3 in the fastest juvenile hurdle I referred to above. Danaw sprawled on landing three out when losing his first UK start, Voy Por Ustedes jumped the first hurdle too big, landed too steeply and unseated his rider, and L'Oudon according to the Racing Post "put in massive leaps at the opening two flights, almost unseating Ruby Walsh at the first."

As I see it, Danaw is still the one they all have to beat in the Triumph Hurdle. The generally available 25-1 about his chances looks amazingly generous to me. Voy Por Ustedes showed that he could adapt to the smaller UK hurdles second time, and I'd bet on Danaw following suit.

Akilak (33) won the Cheltenham race in which Danaw flopped. In doing so he earned a decent speed rating for a juvenile hurdler. It could be he has improvement in him since this was his first start over timber. But trainer Howard Johnson has such a smart record with hurdles debutantes that I doubt that. I suspect this run is as good as Akilak is, and that is ten lengths slower than Danaw over two miles according to my ratings.

Well Chief (40) earned rave reviews for winning the Victor Chandler Chase under a big weight. But, despite touting him as a likely winner here before, I'm now inclined to side against him when it comes to the Champion Two Mile Chase at the Festival.

What concerns me is that Well Chief only earned a Grade 2 rating from me in the Victor Chandler. When I couple this with the fact that he's now lost all three times he's taken on in-form experienced Grade 1 winning chasers I have to be suspicious about his prospects. It seems to me that he's not quite good enough to beat championship class opponents now that he's graduated from the novice ranks. In this regard his record looks somewhat similar to Azertyuiop. As I've pointed out before, Azertyuiop has now lost the five fastest chases he has run in according to my ratings and won the seven slowest.

I'm betting that if anything is going to beat Moscow Flyer at Cheltenham it's going to be Rathgar Beau.

THISTHATANDTOTHER (39) ran a bit below his best when second to Well Chief in the Victor Chandler Chase, geting outpaced at a crucial stage before running on again. I'd noted here previously that the horse might well be better over longer trips and trainer Paul Nicholls echoed that view after the race. I'd like to see Thistatandtother given a shot at three miles. But meanwhile, given his smart record on tight tracks, he looks an interesting proposition at likely big odds for the Grade 1 Melling Chase at Aintree over two and a half miles. He's run fast enough to win that race according to my speed ratings.

The staying hurdlers outside of Baracouda are looking an awful bunch, and Patriarch Express (38) confirmed this view when taking a moderate renewal of the Cleeve Hurdle.

I'm now beginning to think that if Baracouda is going to get beat in the Stayers' Hurdle it will be by a novice. There are some smart novice hurdlers around at longer trips, and the one that looks the most logical candidate for the Stayers' Hurdle is Gold Medallist, currently available at 33-1. With the two and a half mile novice hurdlers looking so strong, and with Gold Medallist staying so well, there must be a fair chance that he'll be diverted to the longer race seeing how soft it is beginning to look. And the 33-1 makes that chance look worth taking.

It's not often you see two potential Group winners fight out the finish of a class D handicap. But that's what my speed figures say happened when RESPLENDENT GLORY (38) and FRANCIS CADELL (38) pulled away from the field to get within 0.12 seconds of the 6f course record at Lingfield. Both horses are held in high regard by their connections, and rightly so if the clock is anything to go by. If either of them can stretch their stamina to seven furlongs they'll have a major chance of landing a Guineas Trial. If not they're both fast enough to score in Group company at sprint trips.

Kandidate (36) is another three year old who ran fast on the AW. And he'll have earned plenty of respect because he beat smarter older horses at a longer distance to score at Wolverhampton. The trouble is, the clock suggests his was only a Listed class performance. And it looks clear that his win was mostly due to his biggest rivals running below form. Favorite and second placed Compton Bolter is not the force of old. He has won just once in his last 19 starts, and that was in the lowest class contest he's contested in that sequence where the runner-up had run in claiming company on its latest start. Second favorite Moayed was having his sixth race in seven weeks and eleventh in the last four months. He went well early but then tired and shifted his ground, signaling that he's almost certainly in need of a break. Third favorite Te Quiero has never shown anything like his best form on surfaces other than Fibresand.

Kandidate is going to be fancied for the Winter Derby on the back of this run. But no three year old has ever won that race, and I doubt that one ever will. The Winter Derby is a Group 2 contest in everything but name, and I don't know of any three year old anywhere that has ever beaten older horses in that high a class that early in the season.