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SHARP RIGGING THE ONE TO BEAT IN JEWSON I've previously touted Hors La Loi III and Idole first as likely winners of the Jewson Novices Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. But now SHARP RIGGING (38) has gone and run faster than both of them, and defeated Idole First in the process. He did so when beating the useful NYRCHE (36) at Wincanton, with the rest of a good field strung out behind the pair. Sharp Rigging's trainer Alex Hales believes that his charge is a Spring horse, and the form book bears out this idea. But for tipping up when looking a winner in the Coral Cup last year Sharp Rigging would now have won four times out of five between mid February and April. I suspect that sentiment will ensure Hors la Loi III starts favourite for the Jewson. And I still think he has a great chance of scoring his third win at the Festival. But off this run, and that big race he ran in the Coral Cup last Spring, Sharp Rigging now looks the one they all have to beat.
STAMINA DOES IT FOR INNOX AGAIN INNOX (39) beat his stablemate L'ami (38) to take the racing Post Chase in good time. As I've mentioned before, it now seems clear Innox is best over a longer trip - at least three miles, preferably longer. Such distances are rarely run in France but they're common in Britain which explains why Innox has won the last three times he's run in Britain but hasn't won in France since 2001. Even though French-breds have such a bad record in the National I'm not going to say Innox won't last home at Aintree. Horses tracing to Northern Dancer used to have an even worse record in the big Liverpool race, scoring no wins from something like 200 tries. But they've now own two of the last three runnings. The breed as a whole is losing stamina, so it's a lot easier for horses with doubtful stamina to last home because their rivals don't either. My speed ratings keep on saying that L'Ami isn't quite fast enough for the Gold Cup. He's lost by six lengths or more all four times he's tired Grade 1 company to date. I can't see why it should be any different at Cheltenham.
DOES HALCON GENELARDAIS REALLY NEED IT SOFT? HALCON GENELARDAIS (37) maintained his unbeaten record with a hard fought win at Exeter. As before he looked to be in trouble halfway through the race but then rallied as his stamina kicked in. He equaled the best speed rating I've given him so far, and that puts him bang there with the best three mile novice chasers. At this point Halcon Genelardais is thought to need cut in the ground to perform to his best, but I'm not yet sure this is true. His fastest run over hurdles (speed rating 35) came at Bangor where my numbers agree with the official going which was 'good, good to soft in places'. I'm inclined to think that if Halcon Genelardais takes up his engagement in the Sun Alliance Chase he'll actually do pretty well even if the ground is as fast as it normally is at the Cheltenham Festival. The likely strong pace and stiff track would bring his stamina into play, just as the extended distance at Bangor did. In any event, this is probably academic as trainer Alan King has already nominated next season's Welsh National as Halcon Genelardais' big objective. That's probably the percentage play given the horse's obvious stamina and the terrific record of young horses in the big Chepstow race. Still, I'll be interested to see what happens when Halcon Genelardais next runs on good or faster ground. I'm betting he'll act on it and run to form if the distance is long enough. TIGHTEN YOUR BELT (?) was leading when he unseated his rider four out, and many observers feel he would have won. This makes sense to me as he's earned a bigger speed rating (38) than the winner ever has on his latest outing. Tighten Your Belt has now won three of his seven completed starts to date, and all his losses were smart efforts - third in the Grade 2 Aintree Festival Bumper, a pretty close seventh of 15 in the Grade 1 Sun Alliance Hurdle, second to the smart Lough Derg when almost certainly needing the run on his first completed start in 21 months, and finally a half length second to the very useful mudlark Olney lad in one of the fastest novice chases on his most recent start. It's unusual for a horse to run nothing but good races. It usually suggests that they are still green and have reserves of ability that they to offset unfavorable conditions. Normally such a horse improves significantly, and that's what my speed ratings say Tighten Your Belt is beginning to do. After his last run I said that the 50-1 offered by the bookies against Tighten Your Belt winning the Sun Alliance Chase was way too big. Now, despite another big race, he's out to as much as 66-1. Wow! Runner-up BASILEA STAR (37) made Halcon Genelardais fight hard for the win and is clearly a useful staying chaser. Whether he could show the same form over a shorter trip on faster ground in the Sun Alliance Chase is open to doubt. His form suggests that stamina is his strong suit, and the way he ran here, getting outpaced early, adds to that impression.
MADISON DU BERLAIS STILL UNDER-RATED I don't often mention a horse here three times in a row, but I'm forced to do so in the case of MADISON DU BERLAIS (37). He's still significantly under-rated by his official handicap mark according to my speed figures and confirmed this with a decisive win in a class 3 handicap chase at Warwick. Madison Du Berlais now has several big race entries. The two that look most attractive are the Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase and the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham Festival. I'd like his chances in the first of those contests especially if he makes the cut.
LORD RODNEY SHOULD BE WORTH FOLLOWING Last year LORD RODNEY (37) put up a very smart performance to beat the subsequent Grade 3 winner Ungaro seven lengths at Wetherby. Now he's gone and produced another big run to win a Southwell novice chase in fast time by a distance. It's tough to figure out the exact preferences of such a lightly-raced horse. But clearly two and a half miles and mud suits Lord Rodney very well. The only time he's run the distance with cut in the ground and lost was when he knocked into himself at Haydock and had to be pulled up. According to my ratings Lord Rodney is not far behind the best novice chasers on this run. So I'd be wary of opposing him next time.
SIR OVERBURY IS SMART SIR OVERBURY (38) established himself as one of the better novice hurdlers with a win in fast time at Punchestown. The step up to two and a half miles probably brought about the improvement for this useful point to point winner, and he'll be sticking to the trip next time when he runs in the Grade 3 Michaell Purcell Memorial Novice Hurdle at Thurles. After that no doubt we'll be seeing him back at Punchestown for the Festival. Sir Overbury looks one of the best prospects for novice chases next season where he has every chance of developing into a Sun Alliance candidate. Runner-up PRIDEOFTHEYANKEES (37) ran fast for the second time in a row. Like Sir Overbury, he was a useful point to point winner and has a proper old-fashioned chasing pedigree. He too should make a very good novice chaser next season. Meanwhile he has the ability to take a Grade 3 novice hurdle.
MOORLANDS AGAIN USEFUL IN A SMALL FIELD MOORLANDS AGAIN (37) ran a decent time to win a long distance chase at Warwick. I can see him winning again if he can be found a suitable race. Moorlands Again is at his best in a small field that he can dominate from the front (seven runners or less seems ideal). He also appears to need at least three miles, a left-handed track and soft ground. But for a half length defeat by the useful (in a small field anyway) Jungle Jinks last time he'd now have won flour times out of four in chases where he's met his favoured combination of circumstances.
FOX IN THE BOX SHOULD WIN AGAIN FOX IN THE BOX (37) ran away with a decent handicap chase at Chepstow in good time. He only made it to the races three times in 2005 and had to be pulled up every time. This could be because he hurt himself the first time and was unfit off a lengthy break in the other two (trainer Bob Alner did say the horse had leg problems). In any event, to analyze his form I think it's best to simply draw a line through this horse's 2005 runs. Outside of that time he does seem to have shown a dislike of tight tracks and a preference for small fields. Toss out his 2005 runs and his record shows four wins from six tries in fields of ten or less. One of his losses in small fields was by a short head to grade 1 winner Tresor de Mai. Another was a pretty good third on ground that was probably too fast for him (Alner says Fox In The Box now needs cut in the ground). I'm not yet certain that Fox In The Box really does need small fields. There's not enough evidence yet. Right now I see him as a horse that's worth following on galloping tracks with cut in the ground regardless of the field size.
NYCTEOS IMPROVES NYCTEOS (36) had run second to the useful Idole First in good time on his chasing debut and improved slightly to take a two and a half mile novice chase at Chepstow. His trainer says he's better in soft ground and this was his second win from two tries on such going. Nycteos ran almost fast enough to win in pattern company here and looked to have a bit in hand. This being so I'd be wary of opposing him next time he encounters soft or heavy ground.
WHY WON'T OUR VIC STAY? OUR VIC (42) won the Grade 1 Ascot totesport Chase at Lingfield in seriously fast time. He's a hard horse to understand but I'm not sure it's a smart idea to doubt his stamina for the Cheltenham Gold Cup. He ran his fastest race as a novice over the longest trip he tried (in the Sun Alliance Chase) and he has a pedigree that suggests strongly he'll get the Gold Cup distance. The other six highest rated chasers produced by his sire that aren't still novices have all shown they can go at least three and a quarter miles. Our Vic's dam, Shabra Princess, has produced only one other horse to run outside bumper races. This is Commerical Flyer who has won over 3m 3f. Commerical Flyer is by Carroll House, and his 3m 3f win represents the longest trip any of his sire's progeny have won at. So it looks like Shabra Princess actually adds significantly to the distance any sire's progeny can go. As I say, it's very hard to understand Our Vic. Sometimes he jumps atrociously and puts himself out of races. It could be he needs fast ground to clear fences effectively in a big field. It might be that nowadays he needs to be fresh in order to run well. It's really too hard to say at this stage as there simply isn't enough evidence. What I can say is that Our Vic earned one of the biggest speed ratings I've given a chaser this season here and that in the past he's run a bit faster. So he's bang there with the best of them in the Gold Cup on the clock. I hope he's given a shot at the race.
VOY POR USTEDES DOES IT AGAIN VOY POR USTEDES (40) just keeps on running fast times. He did so again when beating the smart trailblazer HOO LA BALOO (39) at Wincanton. Clearly Voy Por Ustedes is a very smart horse. But my read of his pedigree is that he's going to be better at longer than two miles. He's only ever won at this short a trip when the early pace has been strong. When it hasn't he's run markedly below form several times. Hoo La Baloo set the race up for Voy Por Ustedes here and the soft ground added to the stamina requirements for the race. On the lightning fast ground that normally prevails at the Cheltenham Festival I'm a bit concerned that Voy Por Ustedes may get stretched into jumping errors and run below form. If he does I'd bet on him bouncing back to his best when he's stepped up to two and a half miles or when he again gets a bit of cut in the ground and a strong pace over two. HOO LA BALOO (39) just keeps on running faster. Toss out that race where he didn't have to run fast because he finished alone and this is the thirteenth consecutive race where Hoo La Baloo has run faster than the one before. He's still only five and has scope for more improvement yet. And few novice chasers in recent years have had the ability to jump with speed and accuracy that he attacks his fences. Surely this talent is going to win him some big two mile novice chase this term.
MY WAY DE SOLZEN ONE OF THE TOP STAYING HURDLERS MY WAY DE SOLZEN (41) beat the brilliant Neptines Collonges in the Oong Walk Hurdle at Chepstow in December. Now he's gone and won the National Spirit Hurdle in fast time. My ratings say that My Way De Solzen is running as fast as any of the top staying hurdlers of recent years. It does seem clear though that his trainer's right in saying the horse needs cut in the ground. This being so, Cheltenham does look rather improbable as a target given the likely firm ground. No doubt he'll be sidestepping that meeting. But I'd be very interested in his chances against whatever wins the World Hurdle on yielding or softer ground at Aintree or Punchestown.
OSSMOSES STAYS REALLY WELL OSSMOSES (40) won the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup in seriously fast time by fifteen lengths. He'd run just as fast when scoring at Kelso three runs back, so there has to be a reason for several races in his record where he's shown nothing like this level of ability. I don't think it's enough to simply say that Ossmoses is an out and out stayer who needs a searching gallop to perform to his best. He's won relatively slow run races before at only three miles. Ossmoses hasn't run enough times for me to be sure of his preferences. But at this stage I think it's interesting to note that he's run below form both times he's tried right-handed tracks - and that most of his best form has occurred when he's been fresh. Like many horses, I suspect he runs to what I call 'the rest pattern'. That is he's good for his first two starts of the season but then needs a break of at least five weeks between his completed starts in order to run well again. He's won four of the last five times he's run to this pattern on left-handed tracks and finished a good second in his sole loss. I doubt that this is the last staying chase Ossmoses will win. He's already shown himself to be one of the best marathon chasers around after only a dozen chasing runs. The next time he's fresh and goes left-handed I'd be wary of opposing him.
IDOLE FIRST HITTING FORM AT THE RIGHT TIME IDOLE FIRST (36) won a decent novice chase at Plumpton over a trip a bit short of his best. He'd run below form on his chasing debut last time. But he didn't do that badly, finishing sixth of 14 in what my speed ratings say was one of the fastest novice chases of the season. The most likely explanation for Idole First's below par effort last time is that, despite his previous record of going well fresh, he needed the run off an eight month break. After all he made headway before tiring and may simply have blown up through lack of fitness. The fact that his connections subsequently entered him in the Sun Alliance Chase certainly suggests they feel there was a reasonable explanation for his run. In fact, though he's entered for the big one his Festival objective is the Jewson Novice's Chase over a slightly shorter trip. Idole First's dam has already produced the useful chaser Lorainovich from a handful of other runners to date. That one, like Idole First seems best at around two and a half miles. Over 2m 5f last year Idole First earned a speed rating of 40 when taking the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival. Logically he ought to improve to something like that level for the step up in distance in the Jewson Novice's Chase. That being so, he now looks the one they all have to beat.
CRUISING RIVER LOOKS INTERESTING CRUISING RIVER (36) beat the Grade 2 winner DISTANT THUNDER (36) in decent time at Huntingdon and now looks a tad interesting for the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. He's now won all three times he's completed the course at three miles plus (including his point to point win) and has bottomless stamina according to trainer Henrietta Knight. The concern with Cruising River at this stage is that his three wins have all been on right-handed tracks. In addition, so far he's run below form every time he's run on a big galloping course. This makes Cheltenham look a bit dubious. Ho3wever it is early days to be coming to hard and fast conclusions about Cruising River's preferences, so I still think he has to be regarded as one of the top candidates for the Cheltenham marathon. Distant Thunder had been pulled up in three big races on his previous starts this term and I'm beginning to think he's best when not running in a crowd over fences. There were only three finishers here and his two previous chase wins were in fields of six. His four worst chase runs have come in the four biggest fields he's run in.
WESSEX KEEPS ON IMPROVING WESSEX (38) won a 6f handicap on Southwell's Fibresand in pattern class time. He's been running steadily faster with each run recently and hit his lifetime biggest speed rating at the shortest trip he's ever tried. Over six furlongs I wouldn't want to oppose him right now. Even at 7f or a mile he'd be tough to beat.
ALFONSO SMART IN TESTING CONDITIONS ALFONSO (37) clocked a pattern class time to win a mile handicap at Southwell and will now attempt to emulate his half brother Pablo and win the Lincoln. However, even if he gets the soft ground that his pedigree and form say he needs I'd be dubious about his chances in the big race. It's not that he isn't fast enough. It's just that on turf I think he needs an uphill finish to take the finishing kick away from his rivals. Alfonso's record clearly shows that he's not at his best on a fast surface like Polytrack or normal turf. He really does need something which takes the finishing kick away from his rivals - either a deep Fibresand surface like Southwell's or good to soft or softer turf on a stiff track. He's now won three times out of four in these circumstances. And the two losses were very smart runs. In his first loss he went under by a short head, despite meeting traffic, to the very smart My Paris who I rate pattern class. In the other he went under by just three parts of a length to the equally smart pair Nero's Return and Cimyla. Alfonso would be a seriously good horse in Germany where he could run on the deep sand surfaces they have at Neuss and Dortmund in Germany throughout the Winter. But in Britain he's a heck of a lot harder to place. There are few races for him at Southwell. And most of the races at the really stiff turf tracks are run on good or faster ground. Old-timer TE QUIERO (36) is a real Fibresand specialist and bounced back to something like his best to chase home Alfonso. He won at Southwell around this time last year and looks set to do so again if he can be found a race on his favorite surface soon.
ATLANTIC QUEST DOES IT AGAIN I noted ATLANTIC QUEST (37) as a horse to follow here recently. And after his recent win in fast time at Wolverhampton I must do so again. Atlantic Quest's recent form reads like a who's who of the top horses to run on the AW in the last year or so. He's finished close up behind Psychiatrist, Eccentric, Wahoo Sam, Bravo Maestro, Gentleman's Deal, Secret Place and Appalachian Trail - all of whom have earned pattern class speed ratings from me. Last time out I figured that Atlantic Quest had finally found a race he could win. He'd won the last three times he hadn't faced rivals I rated pattern class and I thought he'd make it four out of four. But he tired in the last furlong and it now seems very likely that these days he doesn't get beyond nine furlongs. All his good form in the last couple of years has been at that distance or less. He's run unplaced the last six times he's tried longer. This is not unusual. A lot of flat racers develop more speed and less stamina with age (oddly it's usually the other way round with jumpers). Atlantic Quest is still eligible for races below his real class, so I think he'll win again soon.
OFF MESSAGE ON TARGET You don't see many racecourse debutantes winning in as fast a time as OFF MESSAGE (36) ran at Wolverhampton. The run marks this regally bred filly down as a live candidate for one of the Oaks Trials coming up when the flat racing switches to grass in a month or so. Trainer Ed Dunlop says that Off Message is still big and weak. This being so she ought to be improving on this effort as the season goes on. How good she may be only time will tell. All I can say right now is that I wouldn't care to oppose her below pattern class. Runner-up SOAPY DANGER (36), another very well bred debutante, was heavily backed and tried hard to get by Off Message. He failed by a neck to do so but pulled ten lengths clear of the rest of the field (a huge margin in a big field on the Polytrack). He too looks a candidate for upcoming pattern races and shouldn't be opposed below that level.
I'M WORRIED ABOUT DENMAN Normally when a novice hurdler runs as
fast as DENMAN (39) did at My worry is that Denman didn't need to run anything like as fast as he did to score. He buried his rivals by no less than 17 lengths. He ran just as fast last time when winning by 21 lengths. And he ran pretty fast the run before that when his winning margin was 16 lengths. I've seen a few national hunt horses in
my time that run fast on virtually every start.
And in my experience such horses are best when they're fresh.
They invariably run to what I call 'the rest pattern'.
That is, they're good for their first two starts of the season but they
then need a break of at least five weeks between their completed starts in order
to run well again. Denman is
unbeaten in five starts to date (including his point to point win).
But so far he's only ever been run when fresh in the manner I've just
described. Thanks to missing his
intended prep race due to an abandoned meeting he now won't have that five week
break before There are two other worries for me about
Denman's chances at Denman is already a Grade 1 winner, and I don't think there's much doubt he'll be a Gold Cup candidate in years to come. But this year, off a break of less than five weeks, over a trip that's short of his best and on ground that may well be too fast for him I just don't like his chances of winning at the Festival. THE BAJAN BANDIT - THE ULTIMATE MUDLARK There are few horses better in mud than
THE BAJAN BANDIT (38). And he showed
just how good he can be in squidge when beating the useful Royal Emperor 14
lengths at The Bajan Bandit has now won 14 of the 16 times he's completed on ground that I rate genuinely soft or heavy. He's had to pull up the last four times he's raced on ground I rate good or faster. On really heavy ground I suspect The Bajan Bandit could beat just about anything over hurdles or fences. I hope he gets the chance to prove it in the Scottish National where he'd be really tough to beat if he got his ground. IS MONET'S GARDEN BEST AT TWO MILES? Over the years I've noticed that quite
smart few staying hurdlers have turned out to be best over two miles over
fences, at least when they were novices. I'm
now beginning to think that MONET'S GARDEN (38) may well be this way inclined.
On his chasing debut he beat the smart Darkness over the minimum trip.
Now, on his second start over fences, he's gone and recorded a seriously
smart time over two miles at Trainer Nicky Richards has said in the
past that he thinks Monet's Garden flopped twice at ALDERBURN IMPROVES OVER LONGER TRIP When ALDERBURN (37) won a novices' handicap chase at Huntingdon he ran fast enough to justify his entry in the Sun Alliance Chase. However his official rating is still so low he'll surely be steered towards more handicaps instead. Alderburn was backward on his chasing and seasonal debut according to his trainer. He tipped up at the first two runs back. But he's won his other two chases and could be anything. Certainly he improved for the step up to three miles here. I like his chances of winning again soon.
AFSOUN NOT QUICK ENOUGH FOR THE TRIUMPH Afsoun (35) equaled the best rating he earned on the flat when taking a fast run juvenile at Huntingdon by a wide margin. But this is a vintage season for juvenile hurdlers and his performance prompted me to draw a mental line though his name for the Triumph Hurdle. Afsoun is going to have to show remarkable improvement on this effort to have a shot in the big race and I just don't see it happening. The race was truly run, he was ridden right out till being eased late. So the time ought to reflect his ability. And the fact he never ran faster on the flat suggests clearly that it does. I recently upgraded the latest speed
rating I awarded SPEED DIAL HARRY KEEPS ON IMPROVING SPEED DIAL HARRY (37) spent his first couple of dozen races running over five and six furlongs. Since being stepped up to longer trips he's improved markedly. In fact he's actually equaled or bettered his lifetime biggest speed rating in each of his last seven races. The latest occasion was at Southwell where he won a Class 2 seven furlong handicap in a time that suggests he's not stopped winning yet. Right now I concede it looks like Speed
Dial Harry needs the deep Fibresand surface at Southwell or soft turf in order
to produce his best. I'm not so sure of that though.
His recent run at
RED BIRR AND ZALKANI WORTH FOLLOWING Last Winter ZALKANI (38) seemed to find form from out of nowhere and quickly won three races from four tries over 10f on Lingfield's Polytrack. He didn't win thereafter but now he seems to be doing the same thing again this Winter. Last week, with a string of recent losses to his name, he suddenly produced a huge performance to score in terrific time over his specialist course and distance. Quite why Zalkani runs like this I don't know for sure. The most likely explanation is that he needs the sort of early pace that can only be generated by a big field to produce his best. So far all his wins have been in fields of 13 or more over 10f on the Polytrack. His best run on turf also came over 10f on a tight track on fast ground. Even in a smaller field however while he's in this form I'd still be worried about betting against Zalkani over 10f on a tight track on fast ground. It could simply be that he peaks during the Winter. Runner-up RED BIRR (38) looked a slightly unlucky loser in that he lost ground at the sart and seemed to idle in front. On his last run he finished second to the very smart Amorist and bettered even that smart effort here. My speed ratings for Red Birr show constant improvement since he switched to the Polytrack. I suspect it's the fast nature of the surface that helps him as he won the last time he ran 10f on good or faster turf. In any event he is way better than his handicap mark suggests and must win soon.
DETROIT CITY DOES IT AGAIN I noted after his debut win that DETROIT CITY (38) had run incredibly fast. In fact I awarded him the joint biggest speed rating I'd given a juvenile hurdler in years. Now he's gone and run almost as fast to win again at Sandown. This is a decent season for juvenile hurdlers and the Triumph is no penalty kick for Detroit City. But off this run and his last one I find it hard to understand why he isn't yet favourite for the big race. My speed ratings say that with normal physical improvement he is likely to be one of those rare juvenile hurdlers that develops into a Champion Hurdle candidate next year. If he were mine I'd be sending Detroit City straight to Cheltenham off this run. In my experience horses that always run fast as he seems to, at least over NH distances, are best when they're fresh. They take a lot out of themselves by running fast and need time to recover between starts once they've had their first two runs in a season. Runner-up ROYALS DARLING (35) had finished runner up to Detroit City on his previous start as well. And it's interesting to speculate on what his reputation might be if he'd only managed to avoid Detroit City. He'd have been an impressive winner of both his UK starts in fast time and would be surely one of the more fancied Triumph Hurdle candidates. As it is Royals Darling remains a very promising sort, but given his physique he surely won't perform to his very best till he tries fences next term.
TYSOU RUNS BIG The shorter the distance, the more horses there are that can run really fast. Nonetheless, even at the minimum distance over fences few run as fast as TYSOU (42) did when taking the Victor Chandler Chase at Sandown. Tysou seems to be at his best coming from off a strong pace on a stiff track. I suspect he's also better on fast ground. This being so, he really does look like a great candidate for the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham Festival. I've mentioned before that runner-up DEMPSEY (41) is one of the top two mile chasers according to my speed ratings. And he confirmed that idea by equaling the biggest speed rating I'd previously awarded him. The obvious concern about Dempsey's chances in the Two Mile Champion Chase stems not from his ability but rather from the fact that Cheltenham is right-handed. With only 13 of Britain's 43 NH tracks being right-handed it can surely be no coincidence that Dempsey has been run on a right-handed track for 14 of his last 15 starts. His seven wins have all been right-handed and he's been beaten 25 lengths or more all three times he's gone left-handed. I mentioned third-placed KALCA MOME (39) after he'd run seriously fast at Warwick on his previous outing. At that time I figured the horse was best on dead flat tracks. But he came up the hill fine here and it's not looking like there must be some other explanation for his previous poor form. While he's running this fast and is so low down the weights he's surely worth following. Fast ground specialist BAMBI DE L'ORME (38) would probably have equaled his best ever speed rating of 39 had he not hit a couple of fences. He still ran a good race and will surely be found a decent race this Spring. HOO LA BALOO (38) ran a fine race for a novice and will remain hard to beat against his own kind.
UNGARO IS A VERY SMART STAYING HURDLER UNGARO (41) is only a novice, but he won a Grade 3 hurdle at Sandown in a time that puts him close to the top staying hurdlers on my speed ratings. He's now won all three times he's run beyond 2m 5f and looks set to win another big race soon. SH BOOM (40) chased Ungaro home, finally returning to the form that made him one of the better staying hurdlers two seasons ago. Quite why he blanked in 2005 I don't know. All I can say is that Sh Boom is now back to his best and can surely be placed to exploit his handicap mark which has dropped by nearly a stone. Even in conditions company he'd be tough to beat off this run. Third-placed MATERIAL WORLD (39) had been off for over a year. But, like many mares, she does seem best fresh. I'd expect her to run another big race next time but to need a rest of at least six weeks after that to run well again. Her handicap mark massively understates her ability so I'd bet on her being placed to win a handicap next time. French raider DANAW (39) was giving significant weight to all but Sh Boom and did well to finish so close. He'd run fast as a juvenile in France but, like so many Francois Doumen inmates, probably needs the longer distances available to him in Britain now. I see Danaw as a major player in one of the big staying handicap hurdles at Cheltenham.
NOBLE REQUEST IMPROVES NOBLE REQUEST (38) ran a time that would give him a shot in a big handicap hurdle when scoring by eight lengths at Wincanton. He seems to need yielding or faster ground and a recent run. So far he's won five times out of seven below pattern class in these circumstances. Judged by the time, he's improving. Therefore I'd expect him to prove competitive in pattern company in future. Certainly he looks worth following in the immediate future.
REMEMBER FIEPES SHUFFLE I reckoned FIEPES SHUFFLE (35) was a great bet at huge odds for the Agfa Hurdle at Sandown and was mortified when he tipped up with the race in the bag at the last. Fiepes Shuffle wouldn't have run a huge speed figure if he'd stood up. But he would have beaten some smart horses. According to my speed ratings Fiepes Shuffle is the fastest hurdler they've had in Germany in years. He broke the track record when winning a 2m 1f hurdle at Munich 17 months ago. He then won chases at Dusseldorf and Baden-Baden in remarkably fast time. Fiepes Shuffle won all these races by big margins, and I strongly suspect he could have run faster if he'd only been pressed. As it is, the very conservative speed rating I awarded him for that Munich hurdles win puts him bang there with the best UK hurdlers. For a horse that was a Group class sprinter on the flat, it's surprising that Fiepes Shuffle was stepped up to two and a half miles for two races. Not surprisingly he failed to get home each time. But, if he hadn't tipped up here, he'd now be unbeaten in four jumps starts at shorter trips. I look forward to getting some compensation for his unlucky loss here and do do not dismiss his Champion Hurdle chances at all.
KICKS FOR FREE THE FASTEST BUMPER HORSE National Hunt flat races are invariably slow run affairs so they rarely merit a big speed rating. But KICKS FOR FREE (34) bucked the trend when winning a Wincanton bumper in very decent time. In fact he earned the biggest speed rating I've awarded a bumper winner in Britain or Ireland all season. Kicks For Free won very easily, just as he had on his only previous outing and could almost certainly have run a fair bit faster. This being so I'd say he merits serious attention in the Cheltenham Festival Bumper which is now his target. Debutantes STRIPE ME BLUE (33) and WEST RIDGE (33) were the only ones to get close to Kicks For Free, and I'd bet on them franking the form soon.
NEPTUNES COLLONGES MUST HAVE IT SOFT NEPTUNES COLLONGES (37) duly won the Grade 2 Brit Insurance Novice Hurdle at Wetherby without much fuss. He's run a fair bit faster in the past and is the fastest jumper imported from France in recent years according to my speed ratings. The big thing about Neptunes Collonges is clearly the ground. It was only good to soft when he ran second in the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle last time, and clearly he needs it genuinely soft or heavy, as it was here, to produce his very best. This being so, brilliant as he is, I'll be opposing Neptunes Collonges at Cheltenham unless the ground is much softer than it normally is for the Festival. Next season though, when he goes back to chasing, I'd expect to see Neptunes Collognes develop into one of the top chasers, just as he was in France.
SHINING STRAND IS FAST When Interviewed by the Racing Post at the beginning of this season, trainer Nicky Henderson had this to say about Shining Strand: "Has lots of ability, but that's matched by a quirky temperament; he'll refuse to leave the yard without blinkers, and insists on going everywhere on his own. Although on the racecourse he needs four people to lead him to the start, we are at least progressing towards sanity." The progression towards sanity continued when SHINING STRAND (38) was switched to fences and stepped up to three miles at Southwell. The quirky one made all the running at such a strong pace that only two of his seven rivals completed. Shining Strand has refused to race in the past and may only be able to run like this if he's allowed his head. It could also be pretty worrying to bet him in a big race where the pre-race parade was extended and the racetrack crowd might worry him. And it's probably horribly significant that his two wins to date have come in the two smallest fields he's run in (it could well be he dislikes being crowded). Nonetheless, even with all these concerns, this run shows Shining Strand is capable of beating smart opponents at three miles plus over fences. In a similarly small field I'd be wary of betting against him next time. this run indicates he's one of the better novice chasers at three miles plus.
A THIRD FESTIVAL WIN FOR HORS LA LOI III? CERIUM (37) ran a decent Listed class time to take a strongly contested novice chase at Wincanton. But the clock confirmed what his previous form says, and that is he'd probably not going to be quite good enough to win the Arkle. Runner-up HORS LA LOI III (36) might just be a able to win at the Festival however. He stayed on strongly to get close to the winner and will surely improve for the step up in distance and the stiffer track in the Jewson Novices Chase. It's a good few years since he won the Champion Hurdle and the Triumph but clearly the old boy still has plenty of ability. So it's perfectly possible that he'll score his third festival win next month. Remember, Hors La Loi III has won three of his four completed starts at Cheltenham and finished a good second to Istabraq the only other time he got around.
SRI DIAMOND DESERVES A SHOT AT THE WINTER DERBY SRI DIAMOND (38) won a hot little handicap in fast time on the Polytrack at Lingfield. My speed ratings suggest he may not be quite good enough for the Winter Derby, but he's certainly capable of winning in pattern company. In fact, seeing his seeming preference for small fields it would seem logical to steer him towards Listed and Group races from now on as they're far more likely to feature small fields than the valuable handicaps he's otherwise eligible for. In a field of 11 or less on fast ground I'd rate Sri Diamond a great bet to win a Listed race.
BOBBY KENNARD BETTER THAN SELLING CLASS BOBBY KENNARD (32) won a seller at Wolverhampton in unusually fast time for the class.. It seems pretty clear that he's one of those horses that prefers small fields. Like most horses of this type, eleven runners seems to be the cut-off point. If he runs in any race soon with less than 12 runners I'd be interested in his chances. And if he sticks to this grade he'd be very hard to beat. THREE BOARS (32) got to within half a length of Bobby Kennard and also looks worth betting at this kind of level or in a low grade handicap.
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