HUGE RUN BY MY TURN NOW

The Sidney Banks Memorial Hurdle is one of those odd races which always attracts a strong field but never seems to get recognition from the pattern committee. It attracted as strong a field as ever this year but was won in emphatic fashion by MY TURN NOW (40) who now ranks as the joint fastest novice hurdler on my speed ratings.

My Turn Now was staying on strongly when tipping up at the last in the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle last time. If he'd won that race (which is perfectly possible) he'd have earned just as big a speed rating that day as he did here. He would also now be unbeaten in six starts over hurdles. This being so, the 25-1 that some bookies are now offering about him for the Ballymore Properties Novices Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival looks way too big.

LIGHTNING STRIKE (37) ran a monstrously big race for a juvenile hurdler having his first outing over timber against older rivals. You can get 40-1 about him for the Triumph even though this run marks him out as one of the big players for that race on my ratings.

GOOD SPIRIT LOOKS THE ONE TO BEAT IN THE ARKLE

It looks like Paul Nicholls is right to say that NATAL (39) is best on a flat track. The horse was winning for the seventh time in eight tries on flat courses when taking a novice chase at Kempton in fast time. On this run Natal will be tough to beat in the Future Champions Novice's Chase at Ayr which is apparently his next objective.

Nicholls also trains the runner up GOOD SPIRIT (38) and I'd bet he's right in saying this one is better at shorter distances. After all he was on his way to earning a speed rating of around 42 when tipping up at the last in a red hot race over fixed brush hurdles in France over a shorter distance in June. This run indicates he's still capable of running that fast. And, if he does, he'll be the one they all have to beat at the Festival.

HAS NIL DESPERANDUM PEAKED TOO SOON?

Nil Desperandum (39) ran his fastest ever race to storm away with the Eider Chase at Newcastle. He's now favourite for the Grand National but I rather think that he's peaked a few weeks too soon and won't be at his best for the big race. My research shows that horses that run this fast at marathon trips over fences take a long time to recover. This being so I'll be looking elsewhere for the National winner now.

GRANIT JACK PROBABLY NOT GOOD ENOUGH FOR CHELTENHAM

I know of one trainer with a reputation for improving other people's cast-offs who attributes much of his success to his habit of routinely administering a cheap dose of anti-ulcer medication to each of his new inmates. It's amazing how often it turns a horse around.

Paul Nicholls reckons this is exactly what happened with his smart French import GRANIT JACK (36) who bounced back to the form he'd shown on the other side of the Channel when running away with a Taunton novice hurdle.

The thing is Granit Jack was a chaser over in France and never ran faster than he did here. He also only won in Listed company, where the average winning speed rating is around the same that he earned here. This being so I'm inclined to believe that Granit Jack won't be good enough for Cheltenham, at least this time around. Next year when he's switched back to fences who knows.

LANKAWI SHOWS AMAZING IMPROVEMENT OVER FENCES

LANKAWI (36) was a very ordinary hurdler. But chasing is clearly his game as he showed amazing improvement when switched to fences for the first time to run away with a Sedgefield novice chase.

Lankawi is only five and it's impossible to know just what circumstances suit him best off just a single run. All I can say is that he ran a Listed class time here and might well be capable of running faster as he won with a bit in hand.

CHIEF YEOMAN GETS IT RIGHT

CHIEF YEOMAN (37) confirmed that he's just as good over fences as he was over hurdles with a comfortable success at Huntingdon. However I won't be expecting him to run well in the Jewson Novices Chase at Cheltenham. That track runs left-handed and it looks like Chief Yeoman is best going the other way around. All but one of his wins have been on right-handed courses and his sole left-handed success came on the giant two mile oval at Newbury where the turns are so big horses barely notice which direction they're turning. Chief Yeoman jumped right three runs back as well and it's surely significant that his connections have kept him to right-handed tracks since 2004 but for one abortive effort at the Cheltenham Festival.

Chief Yeoman is capable of winning a Listed or Grade 3 novice chase on a right-handed track. And we may well get a decent price about him doing so if he runs as poorly at Cheltenham as I expect him to.

MAYBE CUSOON SHOULD GO LONGER

CUSOON (39) broke his own course record when taking the Listed Winter Derby Trial at Lingfield. I should note that the Polytrack has been riding faster than ever this Winter and he had a strong wind to help him for part of the journey. Nonetheless it was a performance that would win most Group 3 races and many Group 2's according to my ratings.

Cusoon earned an equally big speed rating from me a short while ago but lost his last two starts due to the early pace not being strong enough for him according to his trainer Gary Moore. Moore is almost certainly right as my speed ratings show that Cusoon has won almost every time he's run on a fast surface beyond a mile and been in a race where the early pace was strong enough to produce a decent final time.

Normally when a horse needs a strong pace to be effective at a particular distance it will perform much more consistently at a longer trip. I rather suspect this is the case with Cusoon and that he's running this way simply because he needs a longer trip. And when I look at his pedigree I see pretty good evidence that he'll get a mile and a half.

Cusoon won't be guaranteed to get the strong pace he needs in the Winter Derby itself, so he's no cert for that contest. However grass races are run at a strong early pace more often than Polytrack ones, so even if he simply sticks to ten furlongs I'll be very interested in Cusoon in Listed and Group 3 company when he switches back to turf and encounters fast ground.

Runner-up BLUE BAJAN (39) seems similarly inclined to the winner in terms of distance. He broke his maiden at nine and a half furlongs but has done better at longer trips subsequently. He's since won four times out of seven at 12 furlongs and one of his only two wins at a shorter distance came the sole time he encountered soft ground. He's scored just one time out of fourteen at a trip shy of a mile and a half since his maiden win on yielding or faster ground. If there happens to be a strong pace in the Winter Derby Blue Bajan will obviously be a big player, as will Cusoon. But, as I see it, he'll be more of a betting proposition in a Listed or Group 3 at a mile and a half.

LISATHEDADDY SMART OVER 10F ON POLY

LISATHEDADDY (37) seems to be uniquely well suited by ten furlongs on Polytrack and scored for the third time in four tries over the distance and surface in Listed class time last week (she was off slow and pulled hard when running third in her sole loss.)

Normally I'd be saying that a mare as fast as Lisathedaddy is fast enough to earn black type. But she only seems to run her best in the one very limited set of circumstances, so she's rather hard to place as far as pattern company is concerned. However there are plenty of Polytrack handicaps run over ten furlongs and when Lisathedaddy runs in another of them I'd be wary of opposing her.

SARWIN IMPROVES

SARWIN (36) recorded an unusually fast time for the grade when taking a class 5 handicap at Wolverhampton. My research shows that horses which habitually hang like him gradually work their way out of the habit as they gain racing experience. It looks like Sarwin is beginning to do this and run faster as a result. Therefore I'm not going to jump to the obvious conclusion that he's a Wolverhampton specialist. Now that he's running straighter and faster I'd be wary of betting against him anywhere in class 4 or lower next time.

Mother nature is apparently the cause of the improved form shown by the runner-up POP MUSIC (36). He too has been running steadily faster like the winner. Trainer Julia Fielden attributes this to turning the horse out in a field. If he hadn't come up against a smart winner here Pop Music would have won for the fourth time in his last six starts. He hasn't finished winning yet according to my ratings.

MONET'S GARDEN PROVES HE CAN TRAVEL

Before he won the Grade 1 Ascot Chase last week there were two competing theories to explain the in and out form of MONET'S GARDEN (41). The first was that he simply didn't stay beyond two and a half miles unless the early pace was slow. The second was that he was a bad traveller and therefore not at his best when asked to travel down South.

Monet's Garden looked dehydrated last time out at Kempton and on another occasion when going down South to visit Cheltenham. But this time around he was taken down to Ascot on the day of the race instead of the night before and it seemed to do the trick.

Now we are left to wonder whether Monet's Garden would have lost the previous five times he'd travelled down South if the same strategy had been adopted. Personally I think that lack of stamina was still the explanation for most of those bad runs. However I'm going to keep an open mind and won't be opposing him in the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham with any great confidence. But if he does flop there I'd see him as a serious betting proposition closer to home over two and a half miles at the Aintree Festival.

IRISH RAPTOR STILL IMPROVING

IRISH RAPTOR (37) blundered his way out of the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock, and you could argue that he might well have won all the other eight chases he's contested over three miles plus but for jumping errors. This being so the fact that he ran a bit faster than he has before to score by a wide margin at Sandown takes on added significance. To put it simply: as he gains experience over fences he is running faster.

Irish Raptor's wins include his sole point to point start on firm ground, so faster going at the Cheltenham Festival will hold no fears for him. He'll need to run a little bit faster again to win there but I suspect he can so I'd consider him carefully for the Kim Muir or the National Hunt Chase.

MONCADOU YET ANOTHER GOOD JEWSON CANDIDATE

The Jewson Novices Chase is fast shaping up as a better contest that the Sun Alliance this year. And yet another solid candidate for the former event emerged when MOCADOU (37) won a strongly run novice chase at Folkestone.

Mocadou didn't seem to get home over three miles on his last two starts but had won a Grade 3 over fixed brush hurdles in France the last time he'd run shorter. So clearly he's well up to standard for the big Cheltenham race. The trouble is so are a stack of other runners. This being so I'm beginning to think it's time they considered changing the Jewson from a handicap to a conditions chase and giving it Grade 1 status. After all there are a whole lot more Grade 1 chasers around at two and a half rather than three miles these days and the championship jumping fixture should surely reflect that.

Moncadou is clearly one of the major players for the Jewson. But I'd see him as more of a betting proposition in a lesser contest.

Former Irish pointer PROFESSOR JACK (36) was perhaps a bit keen for his own good and set a good gallop. He ran a smart time in second and looks sure to win an ordinary novice chase very soon.

WILL GUNGADU STAY

GUNGADU (39) is a whole lot faster than the average winner of the four mile National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. And he confirmed this by winning the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Chase in seriously fast time at Ascot. On my ratings, and I dare say everybody else's ratings too, he ought to romp the big race at Cheltenham. But I have several major concerns over his chances.

Firstly, he achieved his fast time here off an uncontested lead. He was allowed to set a pretty ordinary pace, and this has been the way in most of his races over fences. Plenty of front running horses earn big speed figures when they're not pressed in the early stages. But they often flounder when they're taken on for the lead as will surely happen in the much bigger field Gungadu is going to face at Cheltenham.

Secondly Gungadu has shown a tendency to jump right and though he did jump left at one fence this time it's surely significant that his connections chose to run him on a right-handed course seeing that left-handed tracks outnumber them two to one in Britain.

Thirdly there is the question of whether Gungadu can jump in a crowded field. He's been able to pick and choose the most comfortable spot to jump from in small fields in his last three starts but has still blundered badly every time. How is he going to do when he's crowded for room at the jumps as he will be in the big field that always lines up at Cheltenham.

Fourthly, and this is the biggie, will Gungadu stay the four miles at Cheltenham? Everything on the dam's side of his pedigree says that he's not going to get much more than the three miles he won over at Ascot.

In addition you have to wonder whether Gungadu would even be going for the four miler at the Festival rather than the three mile Sun Alliance Chase if he wasn't in the same ownership as the hot favourite for the shorter race in Denman. I suspect not.

On balance therefore I reckon Gungadu is a horse to oppose at Cheltenham. I'd expect him to lose there and bounce back to form over a shorter trip, quite possibly in a smaller field going right-handed.

WEE ROBBIE (38) showed huge improvement on his previous chasing runs to take second. He'd jumped right all the way on left-handed Newbury last time, so it seems likely that he needs to go right-handed over fences as he did here. It also looks probable that he needs cut in the ground and longer trips. He won both times he ran two and a quarter miles over hurdles and ran big here the first time he got cut in the ground and a right-handed course over fences.

HELTORNIC IS A VERY GOOD STAYING CHASER

I confess that HELTORNIC (41) is a horse I simply don't understand. She showed remarkable improvement to win a Grade 2 novice chase recently, and then she improved again to win the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup at Haydock in remarkably fast time.

Clearly Heltornic is a very progressive young mare. However my research shows that when a horse runs this fast at a marathon trip over fences it invariably takes a long time to recover from the effort - at least five weeks and often ten. I will therefore be opposing Heltornic if she comes out again any time soon. But if she were rested till the Scottish or Irish National I'd be rather interested in her chances.

Runner-up L'AVENTURE (41) ran freakishly fast to win the Welsh National by a distance last season and did so again here. Clearly she's best when fresh and with cut in the ground, but that doesn't entirely explain her form. Her big target now apparently is the Betfred Gold Cup. If she's rested for that race I'd rate her chances, but, as with the winner, I'd oppose her with some confidence if she comes back to the races within five weeks.

STRAW BEAR CAN DO IT OFF A SLOW PACE TOO

I gave STRAW BEAR (16) a huge speed rating when he chased home Detroit City at Sandown. And he showed that he could run just as well off a much slower pace when dotting up in the Kingwell Hurdle. My speed ratings say that trainer Nick Gifford is wrong to believe that Brave Inca and Hardy Eustace are the two to beat in the Champion Hurdle. I rate Straw Bear second only to Detroit City. I believe he's a seriously hard horse to beat on a stiff track or with cut in the ground, preferably both. As a Detroit City fan, I'll be worried if it comes up soft at Cheltenham because that will make Straw Bear a major threat. Make no mistake this is a truly brilliant hurdler.

TURKO LOOKS GOOD FOR AINTREE

I rate TURKO (36) the fastest novice chaser in training, and have given him speed ratings as big as 41. He didn't have to run that fast to win at Fontwell the other day, where he scored by no less than 65 lengths. But however fast he may be, I won't be picking him at Cheltenham. My read of Turko is that he cannot handle steeply undulating tracks like Cheltenham and Chepstow. He's lost all five times he's run on such tracks. However, since his losing hurdling debut he's won six of the seven times he's run on relatively level courses such as Fontwell. In fact his only loss on such a course came when he was a staying on fifth in a red hot Grade a at Aintree in a big field behind the brilliant Detroit City.

From a betting point of view I rather hope that I'm right about Turko as it means he'll run a clunker at Cheltenham but be a great bet to bounce back to form at Aintree.

UNITED MIGHT JUST WIN ANOTHER GRADE 1

UNITED (38) ran faster than ever when taking the National Spirit Hurdle at Aintree despite winning with any amount in hand. And her record is still almost spotless when there's cut in the ground. I'm happy to forgive her that one loss in France as she's not really got the size to jump fences or fixed brush hurdles. I'll draw a line through that loss at Sandown too since it came off an eleven month break. Otherwise she's won all six times she's run on yielding or softer ground at less than three miles (that Haydock loss indicates she doesn't stay that far). When she gets her conditions again I'd be wary of betting against her and wouldn't be at all surprised to see her take another Grade 1.

PARTY BOSS LOOKING GOOD FOR THE WINTER DERBY

PARTY BOSS (40) has done nothing but improve on my speed ratings since coming back from Dubai last year. And he ran his fastest ever race to win a hot conditions event at Lingfield.

Party Boss is already a dual Listed winner on Polytrack. Now he has the chance to win in Group company on the surface in the Winter Derby. The extra distance of that race has to be a concern, but Party Boss only got beat three and a half lengths in the Lingfield Derby Trial, so I see no reason he won't stay.

Runner-up CEREMONIAL JADE (39) is clearly a Group horse, just as his trainer has said all along. No doubt he'll get the chance to prove it soon and should be able to win a Listed or Group 3 contest on Polytrack or firm turf.

NIGHT CRUISE KEEPS ON IMPROVING

I've had cause to mention BILLICH (36) here before. He ran a borderline pattern class time when winning on fast ground at Yarmouth last year. He repeated the feat at Lingfield the other day but just got beat in a photo by the highly progressive NIGHT CRUISE (36) who broke the long standing track record for two miles.

Night Cruise has done nothing but improve on my ratings, and he has scope to improve more seeing that this was only his fourth lifetime start. Neither he nor Billich have any business being in a class 4 handicap like this. They're much better than that. Therefore I'd bet on them both winning again soon.

STORYBOOK AND BOSCOBEL CAN WIN AGAIN

STORYBOOK (35) and BOSCOBEL (35) were bet to the exclusion of everything else in a decent three year old handicap on Wolverhampton's Polytrack. Neither horse had lost previously and, amazingly, they both kept their unbeaten records by dead heating. In doing so they pulled six lengths clear of the rest and ran a fast time. In fact Storybook ran fast enough to earn some black type since she is a filly and fillies run about three lengths a mile slower than colts. Both horses should win again soon.

CAN KAUTO STAR JUMP IN A CROWD?

KAUTO STAR (22) duly won the Aon Chase in a contest which developed into a sprint up the homestraight following a lamentably slow early pace. What is worrying is that despite being full of running he again absolutely smashed through the last fence and nearly tipped up.

The thing to bear in mind is that in steeplechasing it is the size of the field rather than the size of the obstacles which creates most problems for a dodgy jumper like Kauto Star. The bigger the field the higher the percentages of fallers. And for Kauto Star a big field does appear to be a major problem. He seems to be a horse that needs to be given plenty of room to clear an obstacle effectively. Since he stepped up into pattern company he has contested five races with ten or more runners and lost every single time. These days there are always at least ten runners in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. So logically we must put aside the questions about whether Kauto Star will stay the trip or be good enough to win the big race. His record says he’ll hate being crowded at the fences, that his jumping is going to let him down and those questions simply won’t be answered at Cheltenham.

As I see it, the relatively lightly-framed French breds that have played such a big part in British jump racing over the last decade or so aren’t really built to fight for position at a fence in a big field. This is surely why only one French bred has won the Cheltenham Gold Cup in the last half century or so and also why French bred horses have yet to win a Grand National in the same period.

If you’d care to bet that Kauto Star, who is noticeably less robust than many of the other top three mile chasers, is going to be the exception that proves the rule I’d point out that in four of the last eight chases he’s contested with six runners or more he has either fallen or made a humungous blunder. And the last time Kauto Star ran in as big a field as he’ll meet in the Gold Cup was at the Cheltenham Festival a year ago. He only managed to clear two fences that day before falling at the third. This being so, the 6-4 still being offered by the bookies about his chances of winning the Gold Cup looks utterly ridiculous.

WELL CHIEF IS TOO SHORT FOR THE CHAMPION CHASE

WELL CHIEF (42) ran right up to his best to take the Game Spirit Chase off a long lay-off. But he’s always gone best fresh so I wouldn’t be betting on him making any improvement between now and the Champion Chase at Cheltenham. This being so I have to say he’s way too short at 6-4 and 7-4 for that race as I’ve simply got him in a heap with a whole bunch of other horses on my speed ratings. He may well win but you’ve just got to oppose him at such skinny odds.

Runner-up Ashley Brook (37) won’t be turning this form around if my speed ratings are any guide. He’s never run much faster and surely would have done by now if he was going to.

One horse that does interest me for the future is FOREMAN who had to be pulled up and finished distressed. I was expecting him to run badly because his ten previous wins had all been scored on tight courses (don‘t let that Leopardstown win fool you, it was on the tight inner hurdles course). Last year Foreman proved good enough to win a Grade 1 at the Aintree Festival. I’m rather hoping that he runs another clunker at Cheltenham after this because I’d then be able to get a very nice price about him winning when he returns to a tight track once more at Aintree.

LIMITED EDITION COULD BE ANYTHING

LIMITED EDITION (36) won a Kempton novice chase in borderline pattern class time. His trainer Carl Llewellyn is fast developing an amazing knack of bringing horses back off long lay-offs to score. He didn't quite manage that off with Limited Edition at Newbury but scored with the horse here on his second start following a two year break.

It's very hard to say how good Limited Edition is because he's so lightly raced. On this run though he does look an interesting candidate for the Jewson Novices' Chase at Cheltenham, and in any lesser contest he'd be very hard to peg back.

SGT SCHULTZE IMPROVES

SGT SCHULTZE (36) recorded a smart time to take a class 4 handicap on Lingfield's Polytrack. His trainer says he's been big and weak and is only now beginning to be mature enough to fulfill his potential. He also says they've got Sgt Schutlze's trip wrong in the past. Now that he Knows Sht Schultze is a twelve furlong horse he should be able to place him to win another couple of times this Winter as he's racing well below his true class according to my speed ratings.

FRANKS IS STILL SUPER AT SEVEN FURLONGS

SUPER FRANK (37) banged out another pattern class time when winning a good seven furlong handicap on Lingfield's Polytrack. He'd actually run a tad quicker last time, and this gels well with the comment from his trainer, John Akehurst, that he'd run up light and now needs resting.

I see no reason why Super Frank shouldn't continue to excel over seven furlongs when he comes back on turf. The only proviso is that he'll almost certainly need good or faster ground to produce his best, like most Polytrack performers, since Polytrack basically mimics the effect of firm turf on a horse.

ROWE PARK SHOULD WIN AGAIN

There are a lot of fast sprinters around on the AW this Winter. Nonetheless ROWE PARK (38) is well worth making a note of because he ran really fast to take a mere class 5 race at Southwell. He’s now won four of the five times he’s run five furlongs, with his sole loss being a second place finish from a wide draw last time. Clearly he’s tough to beat over the minimum distance.

BOLD DIKTATOR CAM MAKE IT FOUR IN A ROW

New trainer Tom Dascombe is rapidly building a tremendous reputation for improving other trainer’s cast-offs. And he turned the trick again when BOLD DIKTATOR (37) won for the third time in a row at Wolverhampton. On this showing the horse can make it four in a row next time.

BELDON HILL HASN’T STOPPED WINNING

BELDON HILL (37) won an ordinary staying handicap at Southwell in a time that indicates she’s capable of earning black type if she can show the same form on grass. She’s improved markedly since joining Richard Fahey and is still massively under-rated by the handicapper on my ratings despite her three recent wins. I wouldn’t want to oppose her till she starts running in much better races than she’s currently qualified for.

ROSA DE MI CORAZON IS SMART

ROSA DE MI CORAZON (36) clocked a very smart time for a three year old filly this early in the year when taking a seven furlong handicap at Southwell. She’d won her only previous start too and could well end up earning black type. Right now this very well bred filly looks pretty much unstoppable in the low grade races she remains eligible for.

DETROIT CITY IS FREAKISHLY GOOD

DETROIT CITY (45) is one of those very rare horses that presents a challenge to those of us who make speed ratings. The times that he runs push the outer envelope of what should be possible for a horse.

Most horses that run really fast times do so only occasionally, perhaps once or twice in their entire careers. Detroit City runs almost unbelievably fast virtually every time he runs. And he did it again in the Agfa Hurdle last Saturday, matching the simply monstrous speed rating I gave him last time out despite making that blunder at the last jump.

Only once in the last decade have I encountered a horse that routinely ran ludicrously fast like Detroit City does. This was Falbrav who I still rate the best flat racer in recent years.

Like all true champions Detroit City somehow manages to find a way to win even when he shouldn’t really be able to. He’s now won eight in a row and I find it hard to see what’s going to stop him from making it nine, ten and even more.

Having said all that I must say that the runner-up STRAW BEAR (44) ran one hell of a race and now rates the main threat to Detroit City at Cheltenham on my speed ratings.

Straw Bear tends to pull hard in small fields and is probably better when there are more runners, as there will be at Cheltenham. His prior losses were all basically excusable, and the time he ran here would be good enough to win most Champion Hurdles. But it’s unlikely he can run any faster so I don’t see how he’s going to turn this form around.

WHISPERED PROMISES (41) ran a big race to finish less than eight lengths behind the winner in third. He’d been second in the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown a year ago and run second in a valuable handicap at the same course a couple of runs ago. He also ran well in the Supreme Novices Hurdle last term so it’s clear he goes well on tracks with an uphill finish. This being so I will be very interested in his chances in one of the big handicap hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival - my preference being for the 2m 5f Coral Cup seeing how he stays on so well.

HUGE RUN BY HOBBS HILL

HOBBS HILL (39) has improved massively on my speed ratings with every outing. And he continued the improvement to score by 17 lengths at Folkestone in seriously fast time. This run marks him out as one of the very best novice hurdlers. In fact I rate him as good as Straw Bear who won the same race last year.

Last time out Hobbs Hill was beaten a long way into second by Amaretto Rose, now ante-post favourite for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle. I now have him slightly ahead of Henderson's mare. That's how much my ratings say he came on for what was his first outing in a year.

Hobbs Hill is a fragile horse according to his trainer Charlie Egerton, and that's why he's had just five runs despite being eight years old. However if anyone can keep a horse sound till Cheltenham it's Charlie Egerton. I've long believed that he is one of the most under-rated trainers in Britain since he's scored highly in almost every large scale statistical study I've ever done of British trainers. In Hobbs Hill he might just have his best ever horse, so I wouldn't mind having a bit of Betfred's 40-1 each way about the horse for the Supreme Novices. We know the horse can act on faster ground and this run shows he has the ability to win that race.

CARRICK OSCAR IS A GOOD PROSPECT

CARRICK OSCAR (37) ran away with a novice hurdle at Towcester on his racecourse debut in pattern class time. He’s bred for chasing and is clearly a good prospect. Whether he can act on faster ground or run as well on a tighter track I can’t really say. All I know for now is that he’s not far behind the best novice hurdlers and should win again.

DEMPSEY DOES IT AGAIN

DEMPSEY (41) is an admirably consistent horse on right handed courses at less than two and a quarter miles. In fact he is one of the best two mile chasers in the game as he showed once more at Sandown last Saturday when taking a hot Grade 3 handicap chase.

Dempsey has now won eight of his eleven completed starts at two and a quarter miles or less. And one of his losses was a close second to Limerick Boy who I rate top class. No doubt he’ll be given another shot going left handed at the Cheltenham Festival and maybe Aintree as well. Indeed from a punting point of view I rather hope he is because this will ensure he starts at a nice price the next time he goes right-handed over two miles which I’m hoping will be at the Punchestown Festival.

MALAGA BOY SHOULD WIN AGAIN

MALAGA BOY (36) improved markedly to win a 0-125 chase at Taunton in a time that suggests his official handicap mark is around 20 pounds too low. Quite why he showed such improvement I can't say for sure. But it seems highly significant that both his wins have come on right-handed courses and that he's been steered away from left-handed tracks for most of his starts even though the majority of UK tracks run that way. I'd also speculate that he prefers genuinely soft ground and needs longer than two miles. With the weather the way it is and his handicap mark being so low it shouldn't be very hard for Malaga Boy to be placed to win again soon.

PRIORS DALE LOOKING GOOD FOR AINTREE

I don’t know why PRIORS DALE (37) lost the Wayward Lad Novices Chase over Christmas. But I’ve long believed that it’s a good policy to excuse any horse one inexplicably bad run. Priors Dale has won all the other three chases he’s contested since November and is undoubtedly one of the better novice chasers. His trainer Emma Lavelle seems to agree with the idea I expressed here earlier that Priors Dale only just gets two miles and only does that on easy courses. This being so, and seeing that he’s actually run a bit faster previously, he looks a decent prospect for the Aintree Festival in April.

Runner-up FLYING ENTERPRISE (35) is a whole lot better over longer than two miles according to my speed ratings. He did well to run so close. I still regard him as a great bet for the Jewson Novices Chase over a longer trip at the Cheltenham Festival as he’s earned ratings as big as 39 from me recently, which is more than good enough to take that race.

GENTLEMAN’S DEAL ONE OF THE BEST EVER AW HORSES

I confess that I had my doubts about whether GENTLEMAN’S DEAL (41) could run as fast on Polytrack as he had on Fibresand. But he proved me wrong when coasting home in a Listed race on the surface at Kempton last Sunday. In doing so he stretched his unbeaten run on the AW to six.

Gentleman’s Deal had actually earned a rating of 42 from me on his previous run and is every bit as fast as previous AW stars such as Running Stag and River Keen who won millions of dollars on dirt in America.

If he were mine I’d be putting Gentleman’s Deal on the next plane to America rather than bothering with the Winter Derby (which might just be a half furlong further than he wants to go). He’d be a snap to win in Graded company over there, and with his fabulous pedigree he’d then be worth a bundle as a stallion (he probably is already).

MIGHTY SMART

MIGHTY (38) beat the useful Rapid City (37) when cruising home in a ten furlong handicap on Lingfield’s Polytrack. He’s a lightly raced horse that has won both times he’s run over the course and distance. So I’m not surprised his connections are considering a tilt at the Winter Derby. He might well be good enough for that and looks well worth following.