NACARAT SMART ON A FLAT TRACK

You won't see many chases that are more strongly run than the Racing Post Chase won by NACARAT (40). Tom George's charge disputed the lead early then made the running from halfway at a scorching pace that he sustained all the way to the line.

To give you some idea of how fast Nacarat went, he went 3.8 seconds faster over the last 16 fences than they did in the half mile shorter handicap won by the useful Le Burf later on the card.

I had thought that Nacarat needed to be fresher than he would be off a 28 day break coming into the Kempton contest. But Tom George had trained him for ten of the intervening days since his last run solely on a water treadmill. In addition Nacarat does look to have strengthened up a bit since last term. So he got away with the slightly quick return this once. Though I have to say I'd still worry about him being fresh enough in future unless he's rested for at least five weeks after his first couple of starts of the season.

As everyone knows by now, Nacarat simply can't run downhill. His stride seems to go to pieces when he tries. So he'll be kept fresh for Aintree.

I'm not yet convinced that Nacarat will be a great bet at Aintree. Firstly Tom George says he thinks the horse prefers going right handed. He has won left handed. But that's been at Doncaster and Newbury, both giant two mile ovals where the turns are very easy. Around the much tighter Aintree circuit he could have a problem.

Nacarat has now earned ratings of 39 and 40 from me on three separate occasions. That's good Grade 2 class. It could be he'll be able to make the necessary improvement to win a Grade 1, but I'd be inclined to bet on him doing so on a right-handed course or an easy left-handed one rather than Aintree.

Runner up POSSOL (37) once more showed that he has almost bottomless stamina by staying on strongly after getting badly outpaced. He's still only six, so I think we can expect him to improve a bit over the next year. Next term he'll surely be aimed at the Grand National. This year the race I'd be aiming him at is the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown on the last day of the season. The extended distance of that race would suit him well as would the likely fast ground (I suspect he prefers quicker ground). If he takes his chance in the William Hill Trophy at Cheltenham he'd also be a bit interesting.

BIG FELLA THANKS (37) ran as fast as he ever has to take a distant third. But he's always looked like he had the potential to do better, so this run must count as somewhat disappointing. It seemed to show that he needs cut in the ground to produce his best as he got outpaced before staying on late up the straight. His four wins have all come on soft ground. He has now lost all four times he's run on a quicker surface.

Big Fella Thanks needs the cover provided by a big field as he tries to pull himself up when he sees too much daylight. Prior to this run he'd won all four times he'd run in big fields on soft ground. His only loss in a big field came when he fell behind Fleet Street on good ground when looking booked for third.

Perhaps the marathon distance of the National Hunt Chase will pull Big Fella Thanks into the race. But I have to say that now, having previously seen him as the one to beat, I'll be looking to oppose him if the ground is fast.

I suspected that the previous timid jumping of HOLD EM (36) might well have been cured by being forced to jump at a fast pace in a crowded field at Cheltenham last time. Sure enough he was much more adventurous at his fences here and didn't make a single serious mistake. He was the only horse in the whole race to ever put it up to the winner, making a bold move to mount a sustained bid to try and get to him early in the straight. It could well be he'd have run second if he'd delayed his challenge.

Hold Em has run a bit faster than this over hurdles, so clearly has scope for more improvement on what was a lifetime best chase run here. He would have a shot of at least placing if he took up his engagement in the RSA Chase. But it's worth bearing in mind that he's lost all eight pattern races that he's contested and won seven of the last eight times he's run below pattern class (when you include his point to point win). So if his connections want to get a win out of him maybe the best approach would be to exploit his relatively lenient handicap mark rather than risk ruining it by running him in the big race at Cheltenham

OLLIE MAGERN (36) hadn't run any sort of a race after his seasonal debut in the last four seasons until producing a good effort here to take fifth despite being denied the early lead he seems to need to score. I now suspect that he has changed with age and simply needs a fast surface to produce his best. The way he rallied in the closing stages suggests that the Grand National is not such a longshot for him after all. Though he does seem a bit small to cope with Aintree's big fences.

CARRICKBOY NEEDS IT SOFTER

CARRICKBOY (38) looked a cert to win at Hereford on Monday following his brilliant win at Market Rasen a few days earlier. However it was clear right from the start that the faster ground was against him. He's a tall, chasing sort that had romped home on soft and heavy on his two previous outings, making all the running in a clear lead. But at Hereford he didn't have the pace to make the lead on the quicker surface and was flat to the boards when the principals kicked for home.

It may be that Carrickboy 'bounced' due to the effects of the fast race he'd run at Market Rasen. He is rather a lean, narrow type after all, so a race probably takes more out of him that it would a more robust animal. It could also be that he doesn't need mud but simply a longer distance when the ground is faster as he doesn't show much knee action.

In any event if you watch the video of Carrickboy's win at Market Rasen and of his runaway success on his run before that it's hard not to be impressed. He hammered European Dream just after that one had won the valuable County Hurdle trial at Musselburgh. He set a strong pace and just kept on going to score in pattern class time. European Dream tried to challenge him coming up to the last but he only had to be shaken up to sprint clear again on the run in to score full of running. Previously he'd won by a wide margin in another race that looked no more than a schooling session.

If he goes to Cheltenham the race I'd like to see Carrickboy in is the Coral Cup rather than the County Hurdle. But my preference is that he skips the big meeting and is kept fresh for Aintree where hopefully he'll get softer ground than now looks likely at Cheltenham.

Whatever happens to him the rest of this season Carrickboy looks quite some prospect for novice chases next term.

AINAMA LOOKS A GOOD PROSPECT FOR AINTREE

The Grade 2 Dovecote Novices' Hurdle at Kempton was a somewhat farcical contest from a pace standpoint. The race was basically an eleven furlong contest following a crawl for the first five furlongs. This suited the winner Trenchant (33) fine. But the formula I use to adjust the speed ratings of slow run races indicates he produced nothing like a pattern class performance. He was simply suited by what was effectively an eleven furlong race far better than his rivals.

Runner up AINAMA (32) is almost certainly capable of winning a race of this calibre. He's best on tight, relatively flat tracks like Kempton and would have won all the previous six times he'd run beyond sprint trips if a couple of very narrow losses had gone the other way.

Ainama traveled well throughout but he just couldn't jump the last two hurdles well at the pace they were going. He will probably get hammered at Cheltenham but looks a good prospect for Aintree afterwards where the track will suit him far better.

Poor old DEE EE WILLIAMS (27) keeps getting caught flat footed in the sprint finishes that are far too common in novice hurdles these days. That proved the case here once more. He was under a full out drive from a long way out and simply couldn't sustain the sprint as well as his rivals. He's built and bred for two miles plus not eleven furlongs and is one of the best novice hurdlers according to my speed ratings. He simply needs a stronger pace and quite possibly a stiffer track or softer ground.

ALARAZI (18) was a very interesting newcomer in the race, mainly because he's trained by Terry Mills.

When Terry Mills sends out a vaguely decent flat racer on its hurdling debut it's time to sit up and take notice. Before Alarazi he had started off five horses that earned a Racing Post rating bigger than 70 in one of their last three starts for the first time over hurdles. Here is how the five fared;

Resplendent King WON

Settlement Craic second

Strikeen WON

Personal Column WON

Tyrerrells Wood WON

Settlement Craic only lost narrowly because he ran green and made a few mistakes. He bolted up by twelve lengths next time out.

With multiple pattern race places to his name, Alarazi is way better than any former flat racer that Terry Mills has sent over hurdles so far. Unfortunately he found himself marooned in the lead at a crawl of a pace for the first five furlongs which prompted him to throw his head around violently in his desire to go faster. His jockey eventually let him stride on but he was running too free, so it was no surprise to see him tire up the straight. He was allowed to come home in his own time and will surely do far better in the near future when he can get some cover in the early stages.

HEBRIDEAN A USEFUL JUVENILE

HEBRIDEAN (37) put up one of the best performances we've seen from a juvenile hurdler all season when winning the Grade 2 Adonis Juvenile Hurdle at Kempton rather smoothly. He was held up off the strong pace and came through moving strongly to take it up and forge clear.

A Group winner on the flat, Hebridean had previously finished a good second to the smart older horse Ainama over the course and distance. He clearly appreciated the strong pace and must have a decent shot of scoring at Aintree.

SAMBULANDO AN INTERESTING JUMPS PROSPECT

I confess that normally when I'm supposedly watching minor AW races on the television I just have it on in the background while I work on the internet. Sometimes however a horse runs such an eye-catching race I simply have to stop what I'm doing and focus on the television.

This was the case when SAMBULANDO (30) made his UK debut off a break of two and a half years in an eleven furlong maiden on the Fibresand at Southwell.

Sambulando is a narrow, long striding sort that is what conformation experts would describe as being 'straight through the shoulder'. This is a conformation defect which means a horse tends to hit the ground harder than it should, especially on the downhill sections of undulating courses. It also makes a horse one paced.

Due to the way he's put together Sambulando is almost certainly going to be best when he's fresh and running on a relatively flat course. He may well do better over fences than on the flat or over hurdles too. His pedigree points certainly points this way, at least on the dam's side. His dam's two foals that were old enough to try jumping both did do, one being a moderate three mile chaser.

Sambulando had decent form in France, finishing second or third in three of his four outings in maidens. His best run came at the longest trip he tried, a mile and three quarters, when he ran second to Shazand who is now a useful chaser.

Sambulando's form was good enough to earn him an official mark of 80. That's ten ahead of anything he was facing at Southwell. And for a long way it looked like he was going to outclass his opponents. He moved smoothly, going far better than anything else the whole way. But he ran green and was swamped for finishing speed by Key Decision in the last furlong.

It looks likely, given his conformation, that Sambulando was laid off due to injuring one of his forelegs. So I imagine that he will need a soft surface or Fibresand to produce his best. I suspect he will do best on relatively flat tracks and when fresh as well judged by his physique too. Given all this he's likely to be hard to place. But he ran awfully well here over a trip short of his best. I will therefore be watching his future engagements with a good deal of interest.

VOY POR USTEDES TOUGH TO BEAT OVER TWO AND A HALF MILES

I like use speed ratings to find out something new about horses. So the brilliant performance of VOY POR USTEDES (42) in the Ascot Chase doesn't really interest me. We already knew that he was most likely the best chaser in training over two and a half miles. This run merely confirmed that impression.

It is worth noting though that Voy Por Ustedes has shown several times that he's vulnerable when the early pace isn't as strong as it was at Ascot. He doesn't have much in the way of acceleration and can get caught flat footed in a tactically run race.

WHITEOAK IS A CLASS ACT

I think the best definition of class I've heard came from Kiaran Mc Laughlin, the trainer of Uruguayan champion Invasor. He said that Invasor 'always found a way to win'.

WHITEOAK (39) didn't quite win on her seasonal debut in the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton. But she did awfully well to finish a close second in fast time in adverse circumstances. The ground was too soft, the track was too tight and the distance too short. To go under pretty narrowly to the useful ASHKAZAR (40) was a tremendous performance in the circumstances.

Most horses would run well below form with so many things against them. By going so close at Wincanton Whiteoak signaled that she's going to be awfully tough to beat in much more favourable conditions when she attempts the double in the David Nicholson Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham.

Ashkazar clocked a good time and is clearly a useful hurdler. But despite that win in a big field in the Imperial Cup I suspect he is best when he faces fewer opponents as he did at Wincanton. He was able to sprint for home from the front in the Imperial Cup, having enjoyed an uncontested lead at a moderate pace. His other four wins have all come in single figure fields.

Third placed PUNBJABI (34) is another horse that's clearly best in small fields (probably because he's not that big). He did win a novice hurdle and a couple of class 6 contests on the flat in big fields. But he's lost ten times out of ten in fields of eleven or more in better company. There were only nine runners here but the going was probably a bit too soft for him. Previously he might well have won eight of his nine most recent starts in single figure fields but for tipping up in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton.

ALBERTAS RUN LOOKS THE BEST GOLD CUP PROSPECT NOW

I've never been a big fan of DENMAN (33). But it's still sad to see any top class chaser develop a major physical problem and then throw in a sub par run as he did in the Grade 2 Levy Board Chase at Kempton last Saturday.

These days there is a much higher burn out rate among the top three mile chasers than there used to be. Nothing shows this better than the fact that the last dozen winners of the Cheltenham Gold Cup all had thirteen or fewer previous starts over fences.

I know that Denman's heart problem is supposed to be cured. I also know that Fort Leney won the Cheltenham Gold Cup back in 1968 despite having a heart murmur. But Fort Leney's heart problems were of long standing. They didn't suddenly develop and then get followed by a worst lifetime run as was the case with Denman last Saturday.

Denman has a big fan club. So I'm sure he'll be well supported if he makes the line up at Cheltenham. But from a practical betting standpoint I just can't see how anyone could seriously believe he's going to pull off the Gold Cup double now.

Denman put in his normal mid race surge, dueling with the winner MADISON DU BERLAIS (40) from the eleventh to the fourth last fence. But his effort was done by then whereas Madison Du Berlais was able to sustain the burst all the way to the next fence. He covered the roughly seven furlongs from the eleventh to the third last 2.2 seconds quicker than they did in the half mile shorter novice chase won by the useful Tartak.

Madison Du Berlais actually covered the last two and a half miles 0.7 of a second quicker than Tartak (basically because they saved a fair bit of energy by going rather slow for the first half mile). When I adjust my speed rating to take account of this it points to yet another solid Grade 2 class effort by the David Pipe inmate.

I think David Pipe is right to say that Madison Du Berlais is best on relatively flat tracks like Kempton and Newbury. The horse has yet to win in ten tries on tracks with steep undulations or stiff uphill finishes.

I'm also convinced that the reason Pipe applied sheepskin cheekpieces to Madison Du Berlais for this race is that he shares my belief that the horse dislikes being crowded. All his wins have been in fields of ten or less or at Newbury where the extra wide obstacles give timid horses like Madison Du Berlais plenty of room.

The 8000 Euro that Martin Pipe paid to claim Madison Du Berlais out of a claiming hurdle at Auteuil back in 2005 must now go down as one of the shrewdest claims in recent years. But the truth is the horse isn't running very much faster now than he did then. The idea of him being good enough to win the Gold Cup or even being able to handle the course or the likely big field is fanciful. The 8-1 being offered by some bookies is insanely low. Realistically he should be ten or twenty times that price. If Madison Du Berlais is going to win another big chase this season I very much doubt it will be at the Cheltenham Festival.

At this stage the Cheltenham Gold Cup looks to be rapidly disintegrating as a competitive race. The only viable candidate from a statistical standpoint looks to be ALBERTAS RUN (25) who ran third here on ground that his trainer Jonjo O'Neill had warned would be unsuitable.

I am still not totally convinced that Albertas Run can't handle soft ground. After all he won a Grade 3 hurdle on heavy ground and the Sun Alliance on yielding going. But trainers do tend to know best about these things, and I have to say he does have a fast ground action.

The key to Albertas Run seems to be pace. He is a horse with masses of stamina but little in the way of acceleration. Six of his seven defeats prior to this one had been in races where he was caught flat footed by a quickening pace following a slow early gallop. Here he was again floundering as soon as Denman and Madison Du Berlais accelerated to engage in their protracted duel. And once he'd been outdistanced he could only chug on for a distant third on the very soft ground.

It seems to me that the thing Albertas Run needs more than anything is a steep uphill finish to stop his rivals running away from him. When he gets it in combination with yielding or faster ground he's quite some horse. So far he's won all four times he's run over fences on yielding or faster ground on tracks with steep uphill finishes. His biggest win of course came in last year's Sun Alliance Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.

Albertas Run is the only logical candidate I can see in the Gold Cup that has the thirteen or fewer chase runs to his name which seems vital for success these days. As I see it he should be favourite for the race now not 25-1.

The other horse that was disadvantaged by the mid race sprint was JOE LIVELY (17). After leading early he fell away dramatically when the first two picked up the pace after the tenth. But he was staying on again in the closing stages.

I can see why Joe Lively's connections see him as a Grand National candidate. He rallied in the same way in the Welsh National late after seemingly being beaten off. In reality though it does look like he needs both soft ground and a steep uphill finish to produce his best now that he's left the novice ranks. He incurred a tendon injury here and won't be running again till next term. When he does he'll be interesting in his favoured circumstances.

AN ACCORDION is a great big tall horse that almost certainly needed this run badly following a long break, just as he did when making his seasonal debut last term. On that occasion he finished distressed and took a while to recover. So it was probably a smart move on his jockey's part to pull him up here as soon as he started to tire around halfway. An Accordion showed last year that he's a smart chaser on faster ground when fit and will surely repay his jockey's consideration sometime in the near future.

TRABOLGAN (16) did at least get round this time on his second run following a three year break. But the way he got beaten off so far out doesn't fill me with enthusiasm for his future prospects. Formerly smart chasers rarely return to their best following a major injury. And if they do it's normally on one of their first couple of runs back.

TARTAK GETS INTERESTING FOR AINTREE

I suggested after his last run that TARTAK (37) probably needed a stronger pace and soft ground. He got them when scoring impressively at Kempton. But I'm now inclined to believe that it was the tight turns that helped him most. After all he has won all three of his UK starts on tight tracks and lost all three on galloping ones.

Here Tartak traveled strongly and jumped boldly and accurately throughout a race run at a good pace. He ended up powering away to win full of running and will surely have no problem lasting three miles. This being so the idea of cutting him back to two miles for the Arkle seems 'counter-intuitive' to put it politely.

The race for Tartak as I see it is the Mildmay Novices' Chase at the Aintree Festival. The stiff fences, longer trip and tight turns should bring out the best in him.

MOON OVER MIAMI (26) is the other horse to take out of the race. He was moving really smoothly until clearly running out of stamina with three to jump. I thought he would stay, and do did his trainer Charlie Mann. But it looks like we were both wrong.

Charlie Mann says that Moon Over Miami is a stuffy horse that needs plenty of racing to get him fit. So far he has run less than two and a half miles four times when his next to last start was within the last six weeks, and he won all four times. He did win a Grade 2 novice chase when he didn't have plenty of recent racing, but three of the first four in the betting tipped up in that race.

If Moon Over Miami runs again before March 6th over less than two and a half miles I'll be very interested in his chances. He's a smart performer when he's fit and will be if he comes out again soon.

MILLENIUM ROYAL SHOULD WIN SOMETHING BIG

With the big Spring Festivals on the horizon and masses of abandoned meetings it's not surprising that some smart horses are now prepping for big races at small fixtures they wouldn't normally run at.

One such horse was MILLENIUM ROYAL (37) who hardly had a race to beat PANGBOURNE (37) in a novice chase at Plumpton.

Tactically this was a totally unfair contest as Pangbourne was clearly crying out for company up front in the tiny field while Barry Keniry denied it to him on Millenium Royal who needs to hit the front as late as possible.

In a game of cat and mouse Millenium Royal cruised up to Pangbourne approaching two out with Keniry sitting motionless. He wasn't going to make his move till the last second which prompted Pangbourne's rider Jack Doyle to ride his mount along vigorously for as long as Keniry allowed him to stay alongside. Halfway up the run in Keniry put him out of his misery by nudging Millenium Royal to produce a small part of the tremendous finishing burst we know him to be capable of. This was enough to see the French raider quickly cruise by and win narrowly but full of running.

I'm convinced that Millenium Royal would have won all five of his chases starts if he hadn't tipped up in the Feltham and met traffic problems when running second over an inadequate trip. He's already won a Grade 2 against experienced chasers and is capable of beating just about anything outside of Cheltenham and other stiff courses.

I had thought that the Racing Post Chase was Millenium Royal's obvious target. My best bet now would be that trainer Francois Doumen now has Aintree in mind for his charge or maybe Punchestown. Wherever he goes, the quick and accurate jumping he showed here plus his terrific turn of foot will make this top class chaser tough to beat. I just hope I can get a better price about him next time.

Pangbourne reminded me of big field specialist Big Fella Thanks with the way he ran here. Like that one he looked horribly reluctant as he was marooned in front from the start. Jack Doyle slowed things up to try and encourage one of the other three runners to come and join him early on. But the other riders were only too happy to see him suffer up front.

Pangbourne was so reluctant without company that he actually tried to refuse at the first two fences. He jumped the third better when Doyle rode him into it. But it was only after the sixth when Doyle allowed him to go quicker that he jumped with more fluency.

Pangbourne did win an eight runner race on his previous start but was most fortunate to do so as he was left clear in a contest where only two of his rivals completed. Toss out that run and Pangbourne's record shows four wins from five completed starts in fields of thirteen or more on yielding or softer ground beyond two miles and no wins in ten other outings.

Clearly Pangbourne is a useful horse in a big field with cut in the ground. But I think he needs to skip novice races as they rarely feature fields big enough for him.

I love horses like third placed WIND INSTRUMENT (23). He's a great big strapping sort with an incredibly deep chest that's all about stamina rather than speed. He'd won all three times he'd run beyond two and three quarter miles prior to this loss. But this was effectively a two and a half mile contest as Pangbourne tried to slow things up over the first six. When he and the winner kicked for home they left Wind Instrument floundering.

I've no doubt that Wind Instrument will be running in the Grand National one day or that he has the ability to win a valuable chase over a marathon trip. I can see why his connections skipped the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival as such a heavy topped horse could easily be injured on that long downhill stretch on the fast ground the big meeting invariably features these days. The trouble is that's the only valuable chase for novices over longer than three miles. So if Wind Instrument is going to have a shot of winning a big prize this term it will need to be against experienced chasers. Perhaps the Midlands National would be the right target, seeing he's already won on the course.

CELESTIAL HALO NO CHAMPION HURDLER

Before he won the Listed Totepool Contenders Hurdle at Sandown it looked like CELESTIAL HALO (40) needed a really big field to generate a strong enough pace to suit him. Even then he still seemed to require a really stiff track or soft ground to prevail.

Prior to his Sandown success Celestial Halo had run three times in really big fields (14 or more runners) on very stiff tracks or soft ground - and he'd won all three times. He'd lost all ten of his other starts in less testing circumstances.

The reason for this pattern in Celestial Halo's form is obvious. He's a big, tall, deep chested sort with a really long stride that's crying out for much longer distances than the two miles he's been kept to so far.

At Sandown Celestial Halo got the kind of stamina test he needs thanks to the soft ground, the stiff track and, most importantly, the searching pace set by OSANA (38).

Celestial Halo was able to lollop along in second place, go past Osana as he began to tire two out and then hold on as he himself began to run out of gas on the run in.

The clock shows that Celestial Halo took half a second more to get to the line from the last than they did in the juvenile hurdle on the same card and a fifth of a second more than in the staying hurdle. To rank as a viable Champion Hurdle candidate he should have been able to finish a lot more strongly than that. The early pace is likely to be even stronger in the big race and there will be plenty of strong finishers that will be able to blast past him if this performance is any guide.

That said, Celestial Halo remains a serious candidate for the big staying hurdles next year. He also has the physique to go chasing too. This year the race I'd most like to see him go for is the Aintree Hurdle over two and a half miles. He'll probably get done for speed in the Champion Hurdle. But over two and a half miles he might well be able to show his best form yet.

Osana keeps on running times that put him just shy of Grade 1 class. However I must concede that he's a very pacey front runner. He needed this run according to trainer David Pipe following a ten month break, so clearly he should improve. But improve enough to win the Champion Hurdle? I rather doubt it. I'd say that if he's ever going to win a Grade 1 over hurdles it will be against a small field in a Conditions race on fast ground where he manages to slip the field and save enough energy to hold off the strong finishers.

I'd really love to see Osana go chasing next year. He continues to give his hurdles plenty of height and overjumped the first by a big margin. This seems to be in his nature as he's done it several times before, and it suggests strongly that he'd do better over the bigger jumps.

AFSOUN (36) was stretched by the first two from the home turn when they kicked for home and ended up just chugging on for a fairly distant third. His record and his relatively flimsy physique both suggest that he's now in need of a break.

HERECOMESTHETRUTH A REAL CHARACTER

HERECOMESTHTRUTH (39) is certainly an entertaining horse. And he showed a lot of his quirky character traits but still managed to win what I still insist on calling the Scilly Isles Novices Chase at Sandown.

He overjumped wildly at half a dozen fences when he met them slightly wrong. He tried to run out when he saw the stable exit. And he eased himself up on the run in. Yet he still scored in very decent time and was full of run at the finish.

I can see why trainer Paul Nicholls sees Herecomesthetruth as a great candidate for the Topham Trophy. The horse jumps really big and well and has so far not touched a twig in ten chase and hurdle starts when you include his point to points. His exuberant jumping is rather wasted on normal obstacles. In fact he's lost ground by spending too much time in the air many times. But over the huge jumps that the National course at Aintree his kind of jumping should be a big asset.

However I can't help but think that the big jumping of Herecomesthetruth is born of fear, at least partly. On several occasions he's overjumped, looking to be slightly spooked by a fence into doing so. In this regard that race at Cheltenham where Herecomesthetruth ran out becomes more significant. He was tiring approaching the last that day but ran out rather than take the jump.

This being so my instinct will be to side against Herecomesthetruth in the Topham Trophy this time around. I worry that he won't like jumping in the huge field that race attracts and may pull one of his stunts to take himself out of the race.

In addition so far Herecomesthetruth has simply been allowed to charge off in the lead in all his chase starts under rules. He's built and bred for three miles plus and is surely gong to need to learn a bit more restraint if he's going to last that far and fulfill his potential.

MASSINI'S MAGUIRE (39) took up the lead when Herecomesthetruth tried to run out but lost it when making a mistake five out. He looked set to get beat two or three lengths until staging a late rally just as the winner decided to weigh anchor in the last 75 yards.

This run proved that Massini's Maguire can stay a strongly run two and a half miles in mud on a stiff track. But I remain sceptical about whether he can keep going in a truly run contest over three miles. So I'm doubtful about him making an impact at Cheltenham. The Sun Alliance Chase looks too far for him and he'd probably be a bit outclassed in the Ryanair.

ARALDUR (30) started at 15-8 because he'd won the Henry VIII over the same course and looked likely to improve for the half mile step up in distance. On the face of it he didn't stay as he moved strongly to the Pond fence three from home but tired thereafter. However it may well be he is a stuffy horse that needs a recent run. He'd been off for eight weeks since his big win and his record now shows four times out of four when he's had a recent run and five losses out of five when he hasn't.

BUCK THE LEGEND (30) was stretched into a series of jumping errors, just as he had been last time out at Ascot. It seems to me that, whatever his record and pedigree may suggest, he is going to do better when stepped back up to three miles. He is a tall, very deep chested, long striding sort that does nothing quickly.