MONET'S GARDEN DIDN'T HAVE TO RUN THAT FAST

Standard times suggest that MONET'S GARDEN (38) ran seriously fast to win the Ascot Chase. But sectional times suggest the race was run over a trip about 35 yards shy of the advertised distance. Whatever point you time the race from they went slightly slower than in the good 2m 1f chase on the same card when you adjust for the different distance.

This finding does not surprise me. Jockey Barry Geraghty looked over his shoulder several times after entering the homestraight and was able to ease his mount pretty heavily in the closing stages. The horse had run about ten lengths quicker winning the Old Roan Chase on his seasonal debut on my ratings and it looked rather likely he could have pulled out that much more if he'd been ridden out up the straight.

Statistically Monet's Garden was an improbable winner because only one horse aged twelve or more had won a Grade 1 jumps race in Britain or Ireland from 74 tries in the preceding 14 years. But he has been carefully handled and run rather sparingly, almost always in the right conditions when he's been in peak form. This explains his longevity and tremendous strike rate.

Monet's Garden put in an exhibition round of jumping and had basically run his rivals ragged by the time they reached the homestraight.

Trainer Nicky Richards deserves an award for his handling of Monet's Garden. But it looks like he made a rare error when running him just four weeks after he won on his seasonal debut. Richards had announced after his seasonal debut win that Monet's Garden was best fresh and would therefore be given rests between his runs this term. His next race was to be the Peterborough Chase seven weeks later. So it's not surprising he got hammered thirty two lengths second time out off what looked to be an insufficient break.

Richards does look to be spot on about the need for breaks between runs for Monet's Garden. Clearly he doesn't stay three miles or get home at Cheltenham. But at shorter trips away from Cheltenham his form figures off breaks of five weeks or more read 1111111111327111.

One of the three losses Monet's Garden suffered when fresh was over two miles, a trip which is clearly too short for him nowadays (he got outpaced and rallied late). Another was in a 12 runner race where he was almost certainly pressed to set too strong a pace (he's best dominating smaller fields or settling just off the lead). The other came in the 2008 Ascot Chase where he ran right up to his best on my speed ratings to be eight lengths second to Kauto Star - who earned the biggest speed rating for his win that I’ve given a chaser in at least a decade.

Monet's Garden ran as fast as he ever has when winning the Old Roan Chase first time out. I suspect he could have run equally fast if he'd been pressed here.

Richards says that Monet's Garden's next race will be at the Aintree Festival or perhaps Perth if he's not at his peak for the big Liverpool meeting. Wherever he goes he'll be a big player.

ALBERTA'S RUN (37) ran another sub par race. Yes he got to within a length and a half of Monet's Garden, but that was only because the winner was eased. Seeing that he won ten of his first thirteen starts but only one of his last twelve it's hard to escape the conclusion he's deteriorated. Then again it may just be he needs faster ground. He has a fast ground action and has produced all his best chase runs bar one on good ground. The sole exception was the Sin Alliance Chase where he won on yielding going. The two times he's encountered good ground since his novice days have been when he ran second to Kauto Star in the King George and won on his seasonal debut. Those are his two best runs.

The good to soft ground was probably not quite soft enough for third placed THE SAWYER (37). He got outpaced three out before staying on in the closing stages.

The Sawyer never seems to come right until the second half of the season. All his wins have come in January or later. All his hurdle and chase wins have been on soft or heavy too. He doesn't seem to stay three miles unless the pace is slow. And he's best dominating smallish fields from the front. As we've seen on his previous two starts, he's a very game front runner that's tough to pass.

So far The Sawyer has run less than three miles on soft or heavy ground in January or later in fields of thirteen or less six times and won five. His sole loss came in the Ascot Chase last year when he was asked to race just two days after finishing very tired in a three mile chase. He's capable of winning a Grade 2 on my speed ratings, but it looks like he's going to need genuinely soft or heavy ground to do it.

OH CRICK (32) didn't have ground conditions in his favour and tired to finish a distant fourth.

Oh Crick did win one race narrowly against bad opposition on soft ground where his jockey said he hated the surface. But he has a fast ground action and all his six subsequent wins have been on ground race times indicate was good or faster.

The other thing that seems to drive Oh Crick's form is that he needs a recent run. He's run well below his best all four times he's come into a race off a long break. This leads me to suspect he's not a natural two mile chaser as such horses are invariably best fresh.

The way that Oh Crick stayed on from well off the pace to nearly snatch a distant second to Twist Magic over two miles on his previous run raised the possibility that he was wanting a longer distance.

However, this moderate run means that three of his four widest margin losses came on three of the four occasions he ran beyond 2m 3f. He fell the other time. I'm now getting suspicious that the doesn't stay.

Class is also a question with Oh Crick. He's got beat thirteen, seventeen, seventeen and a quarter and twenty four lengths the four times he's tried Grade 1 and Grade 2 company.

It could well be that Oh Crick is best in handicaps, due to the strong early pace that they feature. He's won five of the six proper handicaps he's contested (I'm excluding one limited handicap). In Conditions like this he's scrambled home narrowly in a couple of minor events but has been beaten every time he's faced anything vaguely decent.

I'MSINGINGTHEBLUES HAS ANY AMOUNT OF ABILITY

I'MSINGINGTHEBLUES (39) is clearly a tricky ride. He's on the small side, so he can't handle much traffic. He's hard to settle too and 2m 1f seems his limit. And, worst of all, he tends to idle when he hits the front.

If he hadn't sprawled on landing over the last in one race and idled in front when a close second in two others I'msingingtheblues would probably have won eight of the nine times he's run in races with less than a dozen runners over two miles and a furlong or less.

I'msingingtheblues looked to have pulled a good two mile, one furlong chase at Ascot out of the fire when producing a good, fast jump to go a neck up at the last after losing ground with a blunder four out. But once more he idled in front and got beat a short head.

As ever I'msingingtheblues traveled like a champion for most of the race. He clearly has any amount of ability. One of these days he's going to pull off a big win at a very nice price against some big name rival.

The winner PANJO BERE (39) is clearly a smart horse. He rallied gamely got get back up. I suspect the reason he needs cut in the ground is the same reason he's done poorly on steeply undulating tracks. That is he has fragile forelegs that get jarred up on a quick surface or on the downhill sections of undulating courses. I wouldn’t want to be betting him at Cheltenham. But if it came up soft for Aintree he'd be kind of interesting in the Red Rum Chase. I'd even consider him for the Melling Chase if the field wasn't that strong.

HERECOMESTHETRUTH (30) raced prominently but weakened quickly, clearly failing to stay the distance.

Around tight tracks or at Chepstow, where the last three quarters of a mile are downhill, Herecomesthetruth lasts home fine. But around other courses his stamina an inch beyond two and a half miles is suspect.

I used to think that it was the fact that Herecomesthetruth is such a keen going sort which led to him tiring at longer trips. But watching him overjump so many of the fences here suggested to me that this is a more likely cause.

Herecomesthetruth is a most extravagant jumper. He frequently clears fences with feet to spare and did so again here. It's a pity that there isn't a two and a half mile race at Aintree for him around the Grand National course. Elsewhere in Britain the way he jumps simply wastes energy. Then again the fences on the Mildmay course at Aintree are so stiff his exuberant jumping could give him a shot there. Otherwise the stiffer fences in Ireland look his best option for more wins at the top level.

PLANET OF SOUND failed to rise at the fifth fence, ploughed through it and went crashing to the ground in a fast, ugly looking fall. I'm now beginning to think that he needs a really huge track with long straight sections to get into a decent rhythm. After all he's won five of the seven times he's run around two mile ovals and finished second in his two losses. Around smaller tracks he's blanked in eight tries.

DON'T WRITE OFF KNOCKARA BEAU

I was not a big fan of KNOCKARA BEAU (38) till I saw him rally to run second to Burton Port in the Reynoldstown Chase.

The race was so slow run for the first mile that they covered the last two miles just 0.8 of a second slower than the runners in the good 2m, 1f chase on the same card (I'm basing my rating for the race on this rather than the final time). This didn't suit an out and out staying sort like Knockara Beau at all. In addition he ended up sore behind due to losing a shoe and his trainer says he was slipping on landing over the jumps because he felt there was still some frost in the ground.

In the circumstances it was a great performance by Knockara Beau to move strongly all the way and stay on strongly from the last. The stiffer track and likely stronger early pace at Cheltenham are going to suit him very well indeed. He matches the statistical profile of RSA Chase winners closely and looks to have a much better chance in the race to me than his current odds of 40-1 suggest.

Another horse not suited by the slow early pace was the very strongly built PETTIFOUR (34). He got stretched when the race began in earnest from six out.

A similar thing happened to Pettifour on his previous start in another three mile race where the early pace was slow for the first mile. He's built to need a much greater test of stamina.

Pettifour is a big, really deep chested sort that has won over three miles plus and looks built to stay the Grand National trip (he's entered in the four miler at Cheltenham and his connections have talked about running him in the Scottish National as well.)

Toss out one run when his stable was totally wrong and Pettifour's remaining four runs on what race times indicate was soft or heavy ground show three wins and a second in a Grade 1. He's won a Grade 1 too.

Seeing that he's so top heavy I suspect that Pettifour is always going to need cut in the ground even when he steps up to four miles. But over that trip it could well be that yielding ground will be soft enough, as it was when he won that marathon Grade 1 novice hurdle at Aintree. I'm certainly getting interested in his chances for the Scottish National and am hoping it comes up soft enough for him in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham too.

The winner BURTON PORT (39) remains unbeaten over fences in four starts over the bigger jumps. He took a while to get by a front runner that had been allowed a soft lead but fairly powered away from him eventually. This run showed that Burton Port has pace as well as stamina. Sectional times suggest he'd have no trouble cutting all the way back to two miles.

I'm now wondering whether Burton Port will last longer distances on galloping tracks like Ascot when he steps out of novice company next term and experiences a stronger early gallop. It could be that he'll need tighter courses to do so. In this regard it's interesting to note that before this run he'd won five of his six starts under rules on relatively tight tracks and lost all four times he'd run on galloping ones. This being so it looks a sensible move to target Aintree rather than Cheltenham with him.

DON'T UNDER ESTIMATE LUSH LIFE

I don't think trainer Philip Hobbs is quite right to say that the slow early pace was responsible for the shock defeat of MENORAH (38) at Ascot. They actually only went slow till the third hurdle.

As I see it, the real reason Menorah lost is that when the pace picked up from the third he opted to go with two rivals that had been pulling and got lit up when their jockeys asked them to kick on. Prince Buster and Sophies Trophy quickly opened up a twelve length gap on the rest and Menorah's jockey chose to go with them.

All three were going a little bit too quick to last home. Menorah very nearly did so, but he was tiring when he made that blunder at the last rather than idling in my opinion. And I think he would still have gone under by about a neck to the strong finishing Lush Life if he'd jumped the final obstacle cleanly.

I'm rating the time 75% on how fast they took from the first jump and 25% from the time the pace quickened at the third (a formula that seems to work well in slow run races). This suggests that Menorah would actually only have won by about four lengths if he hadn't wasted energy chasing after the two tearaways and made that blunder at the last. This looks about right to me. And it indicates that the winner LUSH LIFE (39) is a very smart novice.

Menorah is a seriously good horse, one of the best novice hurdlers of recent year son my ratings. To beat him even somewhat luckily was a tremendous performance by Lush Life.

Lush Life is built to be a two and a half mile chaser and it was undoubtedly his stamina that helped him win this race. His jockey Ruby Walsh shrewdly decided to let the three leaders go when they sprinted well clear from the third. He allowed Lush Life to lob along quite some ways behind and didn't get after him till just before they turned into the homestraight. Lush Life responded to a long hard drive to get up and catch the favourite in what my ratings suggest was one of the best performances we've seen by a novice hurdler this term.

Lush Life got beat on his hurdles debut (most horses do - and it's also possible he didn't stay the longer trip). But his only other loss in three other starts was a half length second to the highly regarded Dunraven Storm in a Bumper that ended up in a sprint finish where the first two quickly pulled clear.

I'm now getting rather interested in DUNRAVEN STORM for the Champion Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival. (He hasn't been able to run since his defeat of Lush Life due to the ground being too soft.) I'm just as interested in the prospects of Lush Life winning a big novice hurdle before the season is over.

I don't think Menorah dented his chances at all for the Supreme Novices with this loss. Off a strong gallop from the start and in a bigger field he won't encounter the sort of situation that caused him to lose here. I still see him as the one they all have to beat.

Third placed PRINCE BUSTER (34) did well to get to within ten lengths of the principals because he was the horse that led the sprint from the third jump. He dueled with Menorah for a long way when that one tackled him and only tired from two out.

Prince Buster has finished a half length second to the smart Pesoto in a French Bumper and also finished second to Bellvano, one of the top novices, on his hurdling debut at Newbury. He ran below that form on softer ground next time and would surely have gone a bit closer if the ground had been quicker here too. But apart from the ground his main problem right now is that he keeps pulling too hard in his races. He's a big strong chasing sort that looks built for longer trips (as you'd expect from an Anglo-Arab). Right now he's not giving himself a chance to last home properly.

Most inexperienced horses learn to settle down and relax sooner rather than later. And with faster ground likely to prevail in the Spring I'd say Prince Buster will be winning soon. Next season he should make a very decent novice chaser too.

THE ZAYNAR BUBBLE BURSTS

I've had experience of racing in several different countries, and in each one the game is slightly different.

One thing that's certainly different about racing in Britain is the odd way certain lightly-raced horses get hyped by the racing press.

It's hard to predict exactly which horses are going to get hyped in Britain. But generally it will be a lightly raced sort that's unbeaten and has won its races easily while showing a serious turn of foot.

ZAYNAR (38) fits this description, and before his recent loss at Kelso he'd been hyped relentlessly as a potential Champion Hurdler despite the appalling record of five year olds in the big race.

I've noted a few times here that on the clock there's no way you could believe Zaynar could win the Champion Hurdle. The Mountbattle Hurdle at Kelso looked set to provide a good test of this idea because he was facing the giant Quwetwo, one of last season's top novice hurdlers on my speed ratings and a horse I rated slightly faster.

Sure enough Zaynar couldn't quite get by Quwetwo who set a searching pace and just kept on running.

I guess you could argue that trainer Nicky Henderson is right to say Zaynar needs faster ground. The trouble with this is that Zaynar had won on similarly soft ground at Newbury from subsequent Grade 1 winner Walkon, a horse that ran him closer on faster ground in the Triumph.

In addition my speed ratings suggest that this run was actually a slight improvement on anything Zaynar had done before.

Perhaps next season Zaynar will mature into a better horse. Right now I wouldn't touch the 8-1 the bookies are offering about him for Cheltenham with a one hundred metre cattle prod.

The winner QUEWETWO (38) is one of the biggest horses in training. This is why I suggested last year that it would be a mistake to run him at the Cheltenham Festival as he's top heavy and would hit the ground too hard coming down the hill on the relatively quick surface.

That prediction looked to be proved right because Quwetwo ran a clunker in the Ballymore Properties. But he's now won all four times he's run on softer ground around less steeply undulating tracks..

Despite being built for chasing Quwetwo managed to put up one of the fastest runs by a novice hurdler last season when romping home with a Doncaster race by a big margin on his hurdling debut. He lost his racecourse debut on ground that was way too firm for him. He also lost at Cheltenham on a course that cannot have suited him. But he's won all his other four starts despite running over trips that look to be on the short side for him.

When he gets the chance to run over longer distances and over fences Quwetwo could turn out to be something very special. In the immediate future I like the idea his connections mooted of going for the big two and a half mile hurdle at Aintree. This run proved he can handle tight turns like those at Aintree. So if the ground comes up soft enough for him there he'll be very interesting.

STILL CAUSE FOR CONCERN WITH MASTER MINDED

MASTER MINDED (40) was difficult to train even before he cracked his rib according to Paul Nicholls. He's had a lifetime problem with tying up, which is basically muscle cramps. This affects 5% of racehorses according to one US study (it seems like the percentage is higher with steeplechasers according to a search I did on Google).

Some researchers have suggested there may be a genetic component to tying up. In this regard it's interesting to note that Master Minded's dam and one of his two full brothers only managed two runs. The other was a promising steeplechaser that did not run after he was a four year old.

All credit must therefore go to Paul Nicholls and his team for doing so well with Master Minded and getting him back to the races in good enough shape to win the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury.

Master Minded certainly looked good for almost all of the race. But that juddering last fence blunder he put in before cruising clear on the run in wasn't the only jumping error he made in the race. He'd hit the seventh on the far side and rather overjumped the first three in the straight.

It's worth bearing in mind that Master Minded tipped up in three of his first six chases. The blunder he made at the last would almost certainly have cost him victory at Cheltenham in the Champion Chase. It may simply have been a one-off. But there's got to be a concern that it's a recurrence of an old problem.

When a horse has been at the top of the tree as long as Master Minded has a momentum builds up which causes people to interpret everything it does in a positive light. But the fact is Master Minded has run below his best in both his starts this term. Yes he had a cracked rib first time up and yes he might well have run somewhere near as fast as he normally does but for the last fence blunder this time. However you have to ask yourself whether you'd accept these excuses if you didn't know the horse's previous history.

Runner up MAHOGANY BLAZE (34) had finished 26 lengths behind Master Minded when third in the last running of the Game Spirit. He got to within thirteen lengths this time despite making two blunders.

Until his recent flop at Kempton I had a theory that really stiff fences counteracted Mahogany Blaze's dreadful lack of pace. Now I'm thinking it takes really soft ground and a steep uphill finish to do the trick - neither of which he got here.

It is hard to get away from the fact that Mahogany Blaze has won the three chases with the least prize money he's contested and lost the other eighteen. His only success in 25 pattern races came in a novice race where he beat just two other finishers - both of whom ran well below their best.

Third placed FIX THE RIB (33) was hesitant at many of the fences. He didn't jump violently right as he did over the last four hurdles the previous time he ran at Newbury. But he did go slightly right at a couple. This coupled with his sub par performance persuades me he is always going to be better on right handed courses.

With hindsight it may have been a tactical error to ask VOY POR USTEDES (32) to take on Fix The Rib up front. He normally sits behind the pace but his connections were probably keen to ensure the race was a sufficient test of stamina for him since he'd run over longer trips in his previous eight starts.

The change in tactics and short trip are enough to persuade me to chuck this run out because previously he'd been so consistent.

It is now abundantly clear that Voy Por Ustedes does not stay three miles. It also seems obvious that his connections are right to say he can't handle really soft ground. In addition he always appears to need his first run of the season.

Toss out his races over three miles, his seasonal debuts and his runs before this loss on ground that race times indicate was edging towards heavy and the remaining form figures for Voy Por Ustedes over fences read 11111U11221121. Two of his losses were second place finishes to Master Minded, another was a second place to Imperial Commander who I rate one of the best chasers of recent years, the other came when he unseated his rider in the Game Spirit three years ago.

It is a concern that Voy Por Ustedes has run below form in all three of his starts this term. But on balance I'd say it's more likely than not that he'll bounce back to his best when stepped up in trip again in the Ryanair next time.

DENMAN'S ERROR MAY BE A BLESSING IN DISGUISE

The fact that DENMAN unseated Tony McCoy three out has clearly put many people off backing him for the Gold Cup. But I reckon it may well be a blessing in disguise.

Anyone who knows Denman and Tony McCoy will realise that neither would have gone down without a fight. Denman is known as 'The Tank' due to his ability to keep on rolling in a race whatever happens. And Tony McCoy is rightly renowned as the strongest rider in a finish. We've all seen him lift horses home that seemed to have no chance of winning a short while earlier.

I'm convinced Denman would have rallied and that McCoy would have thrown everything at him in order to get back up. You can debate whether he would have managed to pull the race out of the fire (I'm betting he would have). But there's no question that he would have had a very hard race way too close to the Gold Cup for comfort. By unseating McCoy Denman was able to have a good prep, show us he's as good as ever and then ease to a halt before the race became too taxing.

As I see it, if you fancied Denman for the Gold Cup before this race there's no reason not to fancy him just as strongly afterwards. He's made blunders before and that hasn't stopped him coming right back to win next time out.

With Denman exit, the race ended up as a Grand National trial, with Aintree entrants filling the first three places.

TRICKY TRICKSTER (40) won the race and rallied tremendously to get up after getting outpaced when Denman and Niche Market kicked on. He has now won all four times he's run three miles plus over fences when you include his point to point win. Plus he's already proven he stays four miles by winning the National Hunt Chase. However I think the bookies were wrong to promote him to favourite for the Grand National.

This year, with only five chase starts under rules to his name, Tricky Trickster is surely too inexperienced over fences for the job. I can't trace a National winner with anything like as few previous chase runs, certainly not in the last half century. I doubt that such an inexperienced chaser has ever won the race. Though I guess there's no real harm giving him experience of the Aintree fences.

Next year, as long as he gets a decent weight, Tricky Trickster should be a serious candidate for the Grand National.

NICHE MARKET (40) looks a better candidate for Aintree this time around after paying the price for chasing Denman hard by getting caught on the line.

Niche Market was the only horse traveling bar Denman from a long way out. His rider decided to stick with his big rival even when Denman began his usual mid race surge just before halfway. He looked certain to score when Denman left him six lengths ahead three out, but you don't engage in a sustained duel with a Gold Cup winner without consequences and Niche Market was clearly feeling them in the closing stages. There's little question that if he'd been ridden to be second he would have won the race handily.

Then again Niche Market needs a strong pace and he might not have got it had he left Denman alone.

In any event Niche Market has a tremendous record in handicaps run on yielding or softer ground around galloping tracks. If he gets his ground and a mark below what the stats say is the crucial weight of 11-2 he's going to be very interesting in the National.

It was good to see AIR FORCE ONE (34) chug on into third place without being ridden hard in the closing stages. This was a most promising comeback from a horse whose safety-first style of jumping has long made him an obvious candidate for Aintree.

I've noted before that I suspect a fall at the second obstacle on his jumps debut over fixed brush hurdles in Germany lies at the root of his ultra safe jumping. He seems prepared to do anything it takes to get from one side of a jump to another. This has caused him to spend a bit too long in the air over normal fences, but over the giant jumps at Aintree his approach is a huge plus. Throw in his abundant stamina and real class and he looks awfully big at 50-1 and even 66-1 for the National.

DIAMOND HARRY MAY NEED A BREAK

When he won over two and a half miles on his chasing debut at Haydock, DIAMOND HARRY (36) coped really well with the sprint finish. Second time out over three miles at Newbury it looked like he had real trouble lasting the trip off a gallop that wasn't that strong.

They went 4.9 seconds slower for the first mile than in the Aon Chase on the same card but still came home 2.1 seconds slower over the final two miles. Even so Diamond Harry's stride shortened dramatically in the closing stages. He'd looked set to win clearly running up to the last but began to tire quickly in the final hundred yards. Passing the post he was grinding to a halt.

I recognise that Diamond Harry has a tendency to idle in front. But that's not what was happening here. He finished really tired.

Seeing that he won a very strongly run three mile, one furlong race over fixed brush hurdles on soft ground it's hard to believe that it was lack of stamina that caused Diamond Harry to tire so badly here. More likely we were seeing a repeat of what happened to him last season.

Last term, after he'd scrambled home in his fourth start of the season, trainer Nick Williams said "He was plenty light enough before the race and we won't run him again (until Cheltenham). We've got six weeks though."

The Newbury race was Diamond Harry's fourth start of the season once more, and this time around there's only a month till Cheltenham. My bet is that it's going to take Diamond Harry a fair bit longer than that to recover from this tough race. I rather wonder whether he'll even make the line up.

Old rival BENSALEM (35) chased Diamond Harry home after being given a dreadful time of things by third placed Inchidaly Rock. That one set the pace and kept jumping right. This prompted both Bensalem and Diamond Harry to follow him in running down the jumps to the right most of the time. Bensalem was unfortunate to be racing on the inside of Inchidaly Rock and had little choice but to go more severely right than Diamond Harry to avoid colliding with the leader. He even got unsighted at one fence (the fourteenth) by Inchidaly Rock and blundered. To add insult to injury he was carried right once more two out even after Inchidaly Rock tired because Diamond Harry had gotten into a routine of going to his right by then.

It was remarkable in the circumstances how well Bensalem continued to travel for most of the race. He couldn't go with the winner when he kicked on but started to pull him back on the run-in and only lost by two lengths.

I think it's a smart idea to put Bensalem into the William Hill Chase at Cheltenham rather than the RSA. He was stretched into a fall by a sprint finish over an inadequate trip last time and was again the victim of something that happens far more often in novice races this time.

Despite being built for three miles and running like he clearly wants that sort of trip, this was only the second time Bensalem has actually run that far. The first time was when he won a point to point by eight lengths. Here, if the early pace had been stronger or if he'd simply managed to avoid the attentions of Inchidaly Rock I think he would have made it two out of two over three miles.

GET ME OUT OF HERE SHOULD GO FOR COUNTY HURDLE

GET ME OUT OF HERE (39) looked awfully good winning the Totesport Trophy at Newbury. If he hadn't made a dreadful hash of the last and veered left on the run in he might well have won by two or three lengths more. He was so full of run in the closing stages he picked up almost instantly after what might have been a catastrophic blunder for another horse at the final jump.

Get Me Out Of Here picked up a nasty gash during the race that will require a week's rest, after which they'll decide which race to target with him at the Aintree Festival. The betting seems to suggest he'll go for the Supreme Novices rather than stepping up in trip for the Neptune. But if he were mine I'd be thinking long and hard about going for the County Hurdle instead.

As I see it you shouldn't ask a horse to jump up in both class and distance as Get Me Out Of Here would have to do in the Neptune. And the two favourites for the Supreme Novices, Dunguib and Menorah, are freakishly good. So, seeing that he's already shown he can beat top experienced horses in a handicap it makes more sense to go for the County Hurdle instead.

That said, this was a big run by Get Me Out Of Here. He's not that far behind Menorah and Dunguib on my ratings and he might just be good enough to beat them in the Supreme Novices.

PIRAYA CRYING OUT FOR THREE MILES

PIRAYA (38) looked a little uncomfortable when asked to stick close to a scorching pace in a good two and a half mile handicap chase at Warwick. But eventually the front runner tired in the closing stages and his stamina enabled him to claw his way to the front and win in pretty fast time.

The big problem for Piraya is always going to be his lack of size. This undoubtedly makes it hard for him to fight for position at a jump in a big field. So far he has yet to win in the eleven races he's contested with more than ten runners. But in fields of ten or less he's won six out of eight. One of his losses was a two and a half length second to a horse that placed in a G1 next time in a race where he pulled ten lengths clear of the rest.

In France Piraya had little chance of finding a race over three miles plus, but the way he was finishing here off such a strong pace suggests clearly he's wanting to go up to that distance.

It looks unlikely that the field will be small enough for Piraya in the Racing Post chase and his entry in the Grand National looks plain daft given his size and record. However there are plenty of other valuable chase that will have ten runners or less. I'll be interested in Piraya's chances the next time he runs in one. I see him improving over three miles, so even though this was only a Grade 3 performance on the clock I reckon he'd be competitive in a Grade 2 over longer.

The horse that set the tremendous gallop was SAPHIR DES BOIS (37). He looked like going all the way till tiring from the last.

Saphir Des Bois did once win a minor hurdle around the giant course of Fontainebleau in France. He also ran a close second at Cheltenham. But it looks clear he's best around tighter tracks like Warwick. On such courses he would have won four of the five times he'd run two miles plus before this smart performance, with a three length second to a horse that subsequently ran third in a Grade 1 in his only loss.

ARKLE WOULD BE A BETTER OPTION FOR LONG RUN

Nothing better demonstrates why sectional times are a better guide than standard times in jump races than this year's Kingmaker Novices Chase at Warwick.

If you base your speed ratings on standard times it looks like LONG RUN (42) ran massively slower than Piraya did in the half mile longer handicap chase. But in fact they covered the near two miles from the first fence in Long Run's race 4.4 seconds quicker than they did in Piraya's. Even after adjusting for the shorter distance that still makes Long Run's performance a good deal better. In fact I have to rate it a Grade 1 effort.

I thought that Long Run would have his work cut out to beat King Edmund who had clocked a seriously fast time when beating the smart El Dancer on his chasing debut at Plumpton. And for a long way it looked like he wasn't going to get by that one.

KING EDMUND (36) hit the first fence and seemed to decide that the best way to avoid hitting any more jumps was to correcting himself by going to his right. He continued on in the lead, using his long stride to set a strong pace. When Long Run attacked approaching the home straight he responded strongly and the pair pulled well clear of the rest as they dueled, with King Edmund looking to be going just as well if not better than his rival. But Long Run just kept piling on the pressure and eventually King Edmund wilted, hitting the last as he tired and even suffering the indignity of losing second close home.

I've no doubt that King Edmund would have run a clear second if he hadn't fought so hard with the winner for so long. Clearly he is a smart horse around a tight track at two miles. Most good two mile chasers are best fresh, and King Edmund's record suggests he is too. So I'd be inclined to rest him till Aintree rather than take in the Arkle on the way.

Long Run showed tremendous class to sustain his challenge and then power clear to win in such fast time. I wasn't that impressed by his win over three miles in the Feltham in slow time. It prompted me to suggest he would have difficulty getting home up the hill at Cheltenham in the RSA Chase. But this run over two miles was something else. It convinces me that the Arkle is the right race for Long Run at the Festival and that over the distance of that race he would have no problem at all getting home up the hill.

The trouble is that Long Run's connections have announced that they'll only switch their horse to the Arkle if the ground comes up soft. The stats show this to be an unusual move for a horse that's just won the Kingmaker.

Since it was cut to two miles in 1996 and switched to February ten of the twelve winners of the Kingmaker Novices Chase have gone on to contest the Arkle. The two that didn't were Whitenzo and Ursis. Whitenzo skipped Cheltenham and contested the big two mile novice chase at Aintree next time. Ursis sidestepped the Arkle for the Grand Annual, also over two miles. Of the ten Kingmaker winners to contest the Arkle, two won and five reached the first three.

Of course I can always be wrong. However it's rare for a horse to run as fast over two miles as Long Run did here and still be top class over three miles. Okay Kauto Star and Desert Orchid did was but they both turned out to be a good deal better over longer trips than they were over two miles. Maybe Long Run will too, but right now I'm still dubious. I'll think long and hard about opposing him in the RSA because he ran so fast here and has such a terrific record. But those stats for the Kingmaker and the fact no horse that won the Feltham has ever gone on to win the RSA Chase are pretty persuasive.

SUNNYHILLBOY WANTS THREE MILES

Everybody saw how cheekily SUNNYHILLBOY (36) won a strongly run two and a half mile handicap chase at Ludlow. And I think they've drawn the correct conclusion when saying he's surely going to be aimed at one of the big Cheltenham Handicaps. Everyone seems to favour the Jewson but I'm not so sure.

Sunnyhillboy is a big, strong, very deep chested sort that has long looked like a smart three mile plus chasing prospect. He's won seven of his thirteen starts so far. Three of his losses have been on dead flat two mile ovals where he probably got stretched over trips on the short side for him. He probably got stretched on relatively fast ground over inadequate trips in his three other losses too.

So far Sunnyhillboy has won five of the six handicaps he's contested, including two Listed races. Personally I'd like to see him shoot for the William Hill Chase over three miles rather than the Jewson as he took a lot of stoking up to work his way into this race even though the early pace was so strong it caused many of his rivals to tire in the closing stages.

Clearly Sunnyhillboy can run a good deal quicker than this. But the handicapper can only work with the narrow margin of his victory, however comfortably it was achieved. So he's obviously going to get in on a very favourable mark whatever race he contests at Cheltenham.

WILL PUNCHESTOWNS RECOVER IN TIME FOR CHELTENHAM?

PUNCHESTOWNS (42) clocked an amazingly fast time to win the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices Chase at Sandown. But immediately after seeing the run I started wondering whether he'd recover in time for Cheltenham. After blundering badly at the downhill fence he had to put in a monumental effort to catch the remarkably fast front runner Tchico Polos. He did so, but you could see he was getting really tired as they approached the finish.

Trainer Nicky Henderson confirmed this when saying Punchestowns had "a good blow" afterwards which is hardly surprising. This was a very taxing race. I know Henderson was still talking about the possibility of another run before Cheltenham. However I'd be very surprised if Punchestowns didn't go straight to the RSA Chase from Sandown. Even then I'm not convinced he'll be fresh enough to produce his top form.

A study I carried out a few years ago indicated that an exceptionally fast run like this over fences really takes it out of a horse and most need a full ten weeks before they're ready to run their best again. There isn't ten weeks till Cheltenham.

Punchestowns is one of those horses that runs really fast more often than not. Such horses are often best fresh. In this regard it is very interesting to note that every single one of his wins has come on one of his first two starts following a break of at least six months.

Punchestowns lost his first couple of starts. Since then his form figures on his first two starts following a six month plus break read 11111111. He's lost his other five starts, though admittedly some of them were good runs.

Even assuming that he reaches Cheltenham in peak form you have to worry about how Punchestowns landed too steeply at Sandown's downhill fence and so nearly crumpled on landing. The downhill fence at Cheltenham is far trickier and he'll have a heck of a lot more horses fighting him for position as he tries to jump it.

Seeing how he was running out of gas at the finish, it is also quite possible Punchestowns is going to prove best over trips short of three miles. Indeed this may be a better explanation for his losses than my six month break theory. After all he's won all five of his jump starts over 2m 5f or less but only one from four at longer trips - and that was on fast ground at Ascot, a course where a lot of horses seem to stay three miles that don't elsewhere.

This run did show that Punchestowns is at least as good over fences as he was over hurdles. It will surely not be the last Grade 1 he wins. But somehow I don't think the RSA Chase will be the next one.

TCHICO POLOS (39) set a scorching pace and jumped boldly. He looked to have the race won when stretching ten lengths clear over the Railway fences after Punchestowns' blunder. But he couldn't quite hold off a winner who put in what I rate the joint best performance by a novice chaser on the clock in the last five years.

You can see how strong a pace Tchico Polos was setting when you compare his time for the last two miles of the Scilly Isles with that of the two mile 0-145 chase run later on the card. From the first fence to the finish in the two mile race they clocked 3m 57.2. In the Scilly Isles from the same fence they ran 3m 52.6.

Last time out Tchico Polos clearly failed to stay three miles in the Feltham. I guess many will argue that he should now go back to two miles seeing how fast he went here and how he got caught. But I reckon two and a half miles is probably his best distance. So I was pleased to hear he'll be going for the Pendil Novices Chase over the same distance at Kempton next time out. His trainer Paul Nicholls has won the last four runnings of the Pendil. Tchico Polos looks likely to make it five in a row.

KALAHARI KING MAY PROVE BEST OVER TWO AND A HALF MILES

KALAHARI KING (41) came from well off a scorching early pace to win the valuable Blue Square Chase at Doncaster in seriously fast time. He jumped well throughout, moved forwards steadily to lead at the last and kept powering away on the run in.

To date Kalahari King has won five of his eight chases. He didn't handle soft ground when losing at Haydock, pulled muscles in his back when second at Sandown and only lost the Arkle by a short head. So with a bit of luck he'd actually have been scoring for the ninth time in a row at Doncaster (as he'd won his final hurdles start too).

It's always hard to tell just what circumstances suit a horse best when it's making the transition from novice company. But the fact that Kalahari King won over just shy of two miles on the flat and two and a half miles over both hurdles and fences suggests that he may prove best over longer than the two miles he tackled at Doncaster.

Seeing that Kalahari King also has a great record around tight tracks I suspect his best prospects for further Grade 1 success this term lie in the Melling Chase over two and a half miles at Aintree. However I concede that he'll certainly be an interesting contender for the Champion Chase.

Runner up OISEAU DE NUIT (39) does look to be an out and out two mile specialist. Indeed this was the first two mile chase he'd lost in six tries on tracks twelve furlongs or more in circumference.

Approaching the last Oiseau De Nuit was going strongly but trapped behind a wall of horses in fourth. He had to be switched to find a safe spot to jump the fence and switched again to get a clear run on the flat. By this time the winner had flown but Oiseau De Nuit set off after him with real energy nonetheless to secure second place. I can't say that he'd have won without the traffic problems, but he certainly would have given the winner a lot more to think about.

This run confirmed my view that Oiseau De Nuit is going to be competitive in Grade 1 company. I'm also now wondering whether he's going to prove best in the smaller fields he'll meet once he steps outside of company. After all he met traffic problems here in a fifteen runner race and his last three wins have been in races with eight or fewer runners. However his handicap mark is still remarkably low, so it makes sense to continue exploiting it with a shot at the Grand Annual where he looks the one they'll all have to beat, my concerns about the big field notwithstanding.

MAD MAX PROBABLY NEEDS LONGER

The Grade 2 Blue Square Lightning Novices' Chase at Doncaster was run at a very modest pace in the early stages. This resulted in the race developing into a sprint over the final six furlongs. And this did not suit MAD MAX (26) at all. He kept moving really strongly and finished the race full of run but simply lacked the turn of foot needed to pick up the first two who had stolen first run on him when the sprint began.

Mad Max won a very strongly run two mile race on his chasing debut at Kempton. But if he were a genuine two miler he would have had the change of gear required to cope with the sprint finish here.

Mad Max clearly still has breathing problems despite the two operations he's had because he was making a noise on pulling up at Kempton. So I don't think it would be a good idea to run him at Cheltenham where the uphill finish would surely put too much stress on his breathing. I'd like to see him freshened up with a break and steered towards a race over two and a half miles on a dead flat track.

SIR HARRY ORMESHER LOOKING GOOD FOR CORAL CUP

After watching SIR HARRY ORMESHER (37) win at Doncaster and reading his trainer's comments about him pulling hard when he doesn't have cover I've reverted to my old theory about the horse which mirrors that of his trainer. Clearly he's best in bigger fields.

Early on Sir Harry Ormesher just lobbed along in last place. Approaching the straight he was allowed to move steadily forwards, with his jockey clearly still keen to keep him in behind other runners. This led to him being trapped behind a wall of horses for rather too long. To get out of the situation he had to be switched approaching the last and as a result only got to the front late to score going away by half a length.

The narrow margin of his success plus the fact his previous run was in a voided race which he won more impressively in faster time are a big plus in regards to the Coral Cup. They ensure that Sir Harry Ormesher's remarkably low official handicap mark won't be going up very much.

Sir Harry Ormesher found the mile and a half too short on his racecourse debut. And he got worked up before the Cheltenham Festival Bumper where he pulled way too hard and raced too prominently. He's won the other six times he's run in races with eight or more runners when you count that voided race.

I liked the way Sir Harry Ormesher was staying on so strongly at the finish of this race. He's a strongly built horse that looks sure to be suited by the extra furlong and a half of the Coral Cup. I like his chances of taking that race.

Big handicaps are always likely to be best for Sir Harry Ormesher as they attract large enough fields for him to find cover. So when his handicap mark gets too high over hurdles I'd like to see him switched back to fences. I can easily see him winning a big handicap chase over two and a half miles plus next season.

TRACK MAY BE KEY TO ZARINAVA

For a horse that had won just one of her thirteen previous starts over timber ZARINAVA (38) looked awfully good when powering up the run in to close a two length gap on the useful MY PETRA (37) to take the Grade 2 Mares Hurdle at Doncaster.

You may recall that Zarinava looked to be on her way to winning the same race last year when falling three out.

Last year the race was slow run in the early stages, so, while I accept the trainer's idea that she doesn't stay much beyond two miles, I'm dubious about her theory that Zarinava needs a strong pace to produce her best. It seems more likely that it is the nature of the track at Doncaster which brings out the best in her.

Doncaster is a big, relatively flat two mile oval. If Zarinava hadn't gone too long a distance on one occasion, twice run against males when third in Grade 1's and fallen in this race last year you can argue she would have won the last seven times she's run on tracks 14f or more in circumference without major gradients.

If my theory is right there aren't any suitable big races for Zarinava over hurdles in the next six months. So, seeing that Ireland's two top flat tracks, the Curragh and Leopardstown, are big and not steeply undulating, it might well be a smart move to try her on the level. After all she won a Bumper at Leopardstown and a decent flat race at the Curragh. She might well be capable of picking up back type at one of those courses which would make her even more valuable as a broodmare. Who knows she could even prove good enough to have a crack at the Doncaster Cup at her favourite course later in the year.

The slightly yielding ground was only just fast enough for My Petra. The Nicky Henderson mare has reverted to hurdles after failing to complete in her last three chases, but I'm not convinced she won't be winning in good company over the bigger jumps once more.

It may well be that My Petra is best over the bigger jumps in single figure fields and when avoiding tracks that claim a high percentage of fallers. That means pretty much all the Irish tracks, Aintree, Ayr, Doncaster, Kempton, Lingfield and Wincanton. If one photo had gone her way in a Grade 2 she would have won three of the four times she's run in single figure fields over relatively easy fences and finished a close second to multiple Grade 1 winner Noland in her sole loss.

My Petra would be easier to place back over fences, so I imagine she'll be making the move back to the bigger jumps sooner rather than later.

TIDAL BAY LOOKS A GOOD THING FOR WORLD HURDLE

A few times a season the clock tells you something that's unexpected, unequivocal and almost unbelievable. This was the case with TIDAL BAY (42) in the Cleeve Hurdle. The time he clocked was just mind boggling. I've got to award him a rating of 42 on my scale for it. That's the best performance by a three mile hurdler in years - better than anything Big Bucks has done or is likely to be capable of.

I'm not a big fan of standard times in jump racing as they move the rails so much you often end up comparing distances that have been altered radically. So nowadays I base my ratings on sectional times that I adjust for distance. On Saturday the last seven jumps were the same in all three hurdle races. They went a bit slow early in the big two mile handicap hurdle, so the time over the last seven of 3m 31.6 is not a fair reflection of their ability. But Restless Harry went throttle out from the start, so the 3m 30.3 he took over the last seven does represent his ability.

If Tidal Bay had the same level of ability as Restless Harry he would have taken 3m 34.20 seconds over the last seven jumps and up to the finish (when I adjust for the longer distance of his race). He actually got there in 3m 32.0 This makes him five lengths a mile better than Restless Harry (which is what the standard time comparison says too, so it's right in this instance). There's no way I can rate Restless Harry lower than 37 (equal to weak Grade 3). So I must put Tidal Bay on 42. As I've said, that's better than Big Bucks. In fact it's right up there with the very best three mile hurdlers of the last fifteen years. I've not given a three mile hurdler a bigger rating in that period, not even Baracouda or Inglis Drever.

I was really impressed with the way Tidal Bay simply ran away from his rivals from the last, as if he'd just jumped into the race at that point. He won full of running. What's more he's likely to improve for faster ground at the Cheltenham Festival.

Tidal Bay didn't act on the heavy ground when second to Wichita Lineman and has always been best on a quicker surface. If he hadn't been carried right when losing the Ballymore Properties by a neck he would have won all his six starts over timber on what race times indicate was soft or faster going.

Five year olds don't win the World Hurdle. So I think it's significant that since the distance of the Cleeve Hurdle was increased to three miles the only two older horses to win it which went on to run in the World hurdle both scored - Big Bucks and Inglis Drever. I reckon Tidal Bay is going to make it three out of three. I see him as the most likely winner of any race at the Cheltenham Festival. So I'm boggled that he's still 12-1 with the bookies. That's insanely big. As I see it he should be favourite not Big Bucks.

Runner up TIME FOR RUPERT (40) is a muscular, well proportioned, good-bodied, classy looking sort that's clearly built for chasing. But he's also athletic and agile and possesses plenty of pace for a horse with such obvious stamina. He'd won the three previous times he'd run beyond two and a half miles and is clearly one of the top three mile hurdlers. I can't see how he can turn this form around with Tidal Bay at Cheltenham but can easily see him taking second place once more. Next season he's going to be quite some novice chaser and could well be a Gold Cup prospect later on.

Former Champion Hurdler KATCHIT (40) had looked to be in need of a step up in distance for a long time. It's now clear that the jump up to two and a half miles was not quite enough as he bounced right back to his best going three miles for the first time here. Clearly he has a shot in the World Hurdle and should improve on faster ground. But so should Tidal Bay.

MR THRILLER (27) was close up and moving well for a long way but tired from three out. It now seems likely that he doesn't like really stiff tracks like Cheltenham and Sandown as he's run below form all four times he's run at these venues but won his other four UK starts.

TATENEN (14) once more demonstrated how he hates Cheltenham's steep finish by tiring badly up the final climb. He's a smart horse around less testing courses.

RESTLESS HARRY A GOOD CHASING PROSPECT

RESTLESS HARRY (37) set a strong pace and just kept on galloping to grind his rivals into submission in the Grade 2 novice hurdler over two and a half miles at Cheltenham. He's built for three miles and fences and was clearly running a bit faster than he can jump efficiently as he took few of the hurdles cleanly. Therefore the step up to three miles for the Albert Bartlett at the Festival looks a good plan. Most likely he won't be good enough there. But next year over fences he could easily prove to be one of the top novice chasers at three miles.

TARANIS STILL HAS IT

The stats indicate that the chances of a horse winning off a two year lay off following a breakdown this late in the season are slim. Trainer Paul Nicholls seemed to confirm this a few days before the Argento Chase at Cheltenham when saying "I think Taranis will need the run".

However TARANIS (40) had won all seven of his starts since leaving France when he'd had a break of 40 days plus, including a Grade 1. And he'd been back in work since late July.

I've noticed in the past that Nicholls does tend to be a pessimist about his horse's fitness. So it wasn't that big a shock that Taranis came there cruising two out and ended up winning comfortably by six lengths. He's never been in the same league as Kauto Star Or Imperial Commander on my ratings. But he's as good as ever judged on this run and looks capable of winning more big races when fresh.

Runner up CARRUTHERS (38) looked rather a good thing on paper as he'd won five of the six times he'd run in fields of eight or less and was a close second to subsequent Grade 1 winner What A Friend in his sole loss. However he was never left alone up front by Madison Du Berlais and Joe Lively and didn't seem to enjoy being pressured by that pair. Either that or he is not at his best around Cheltenham, where he's yet to win in three tries. In any event he kept on for second after a series of scrappy jumps while running a bit below his best.

Carruthers is clearly still very hard to get by in a small field. But I'm now inclined to think his best chance of further success in top company lies at Aintree rather than Cheltenham.

JOE LIVELY (38) rallied strongly on two separate occasions in the race, showing the stamina that makes him such an interesting candidate for the Grand National. He's clearly been trained exclusively with that race in mind and will have a serious chance if he can only get in with a low enough mark, which means under 11-2 (as no horse has carried that weight or higher to victory at Aintree in 25 years).

MADISON DU BERLAIS (33) went well for a long way but tired up the hill, demonstrating once more that he's best on flatter courses. He did win a 0-115 and a 0-125 chase on undulating tracks early on in his UK career four years back. But since then, in better class races, he's lost all twelve times he's run on anything but a dead flat track and won seven out of fourteen on dead flat courses.

Trainer David Pipe said before the race that "The questions about the track will be answered on Saturday." The questions were answered with a seventh defeat in seven tries at Cheltenham. But no real harm was done. It was only a prep race and at least Madison Du Berlais' connections now know to pull him out of the Gold Cup and steer him towards a repeat success at Aintree in the totesport Bowl.

The novice INCHIDALY ROCK was fancied by some. But the four previous novices to contest the race since 1995 had all failed to complete the course, so it wasn't that surprising he slithered to a slow motion fall at the ninth. Paul Nicholls believes he's going to improve over four miles anyway, and I don't think this will have done his chances in the National Hunt Chase over that trip too much harm.