NOLAND DID NOT RUN BELOW FORM

I spent ages checking out the form and sectional times of the races on the Sandown card where NOLAND (40) won last week. And I'm here to tell you that he did not run below form as many seem to suppose. He ran another seriously fast time.

What happened was that Noland faced a much more serious challenge from his rivals than looked likely. His jockey, Ruby Walsh, must have thought he could kick into the lead on the far side, sail on around the home turn, open up a big break and allow his mount to cruise home up the straight. Instead both MY PETRA (39) and PSYCHOMODO (39) closed right up on him as they rounded the turn and approached the Pond Fence three out. And at that fence Phsycomodo actually jumped past Noland into a narrow lead and quickened up the pace. For a few strides Noland looked in a spot of trouble as he had to be ridden along to pick up the increased tempo. By the next fence though it was beginning to look clear he was going to get away from his two rivals as he moved back upsides Psychomodo going well.

It was most unfortunate that Psychomodo fell at that fence. But take nothing away from Noland. He kept going strongly, opened up a few lengths on My Petra and was still powering away even as she slowly eroded his lead in the last half furlong. Indeed Walsh repeatedly looked over his shoulder as My Petra closed in, trying to see if he needed to go for everything on Noland. He certainly had to keep him right up to his work and I doubt he could have pulled out much more. But the clock says this was a huge effort from him - equal to any race run by a novice chaser this season.

This race was run at a decent pace in the early stages. And they were really moving up the straight. In fact from the third last Noland came home 5.5 seconds quicker than they did in the other two mile chase on the card to record a final time that was 3.65 seconds quicker. That's a big margin over two miles.

However, fast as he ran here, I now have several concerns about Noland in regards to the Arkle. The first is that he has now run his two fastest lifetime races back to back and has just seventeen days to recover before Cheltenham. To say this is not ideal is an understatement. The vast majority of top two mile chasers are best on their first two runs of the season and then require resting for at least five weeks between their starts thereafter in order to run well again. Perhaps Noland is going to prove an exception in this regard, but I wouldn't like to bet on it.

The second concern I have about Noland is how well his jumping will hold up under pressure. To date he's measured every fence he's jumped perfectly. He's never had to put in a short one or stand off and jump big because he's met a fence wrong. So far he's met them all right because he's never been under serious pressure. In this race though when Psychomodo picked up the pace three out there was the first sign that Noland could be in trouble at the faster early pace of the Arkle. He floundered a bit on landing and got away from the jump a fair bit more slowly than Psychomodo.

I don't like to see a novice chaser head into a big race without ever having made a serious jumping error. Horses, like people, learn from their mistakes. So far Noland has learned very little about jumping fences and this may find him out at Cheltenham.

The third concern is allied to the first and concerns that statistic I've previously quoted. Namely that in the last twenty there has been only one Arkle winner (Well Chief) that made its chasing debut after the turn of the year which hadn't previously won over fixed brush hurdles. There's a reason horse's need more experience of fences to win the Arkle and Noland showed a hint of it here at the third last.

I also don't like the fact that Noland was 'as sick as anything' according to trainer Paul Nicholls after he won on his chasing debut at Folkestone. Sick with what? He didn't say but it's another clear cause for concern.

Finally whenever I look at Noland lumbering along with that big long stride of his I find it hard not to believe that he's going to end up being a three mile rather than a two mile chaser.

Clearly Noland is a high class horse and a tremendous prospect. But on balance I can't take a short price about him winning the Arkle.

My Petra emerges from this race as one of the best chasing mares in training. On her previous start she was under pressure a long way out but surged from before the last to get up close home. Here she was again finishing strongly and was closing Noland down all the way to the line.

I would be wary of dismissing My Petra's chances in the Arkle out of hand. She ran fast enough here to have a real shot in the big race. And she is the sole Arkle entry for a trainer who would probably have won with four of the ten Arkle runners he's saddled in the last two decades if Thumbs Up hadn't tipped up when cruising three out back in 1994.

Long term My Petra will surely get two and a half miles seeing how well she's staying on now she's learned to settle. Right now the 66-1 you can get about her for the Arkle looks plain silly.

Psychomodo isn't entered at Cheltenham. And it would seem a little silly to throw away his novice status with only a few weeks of the season remaining. I imagine he'll now revert to hurdles and then go back chasing next term. On this run he'll certainly be an exciting prospect when he does. My best guess is that he would have finished a close third if he hadn't hit the deck. And that represents a tremendous effort for a horse making its chasing debut. I guess the best thing to do now is rough him off for the season as his trainer has said before that Pyschomodo doesn't handle firm ground and that's mostly what we get in the Spring.

GUNGADU WILL BE TOUGH TO BEAT AT AINTREE

Trainer Paul Nicholls expressed the same fears as I had about GUNGADU (39) not being fresh enough to win the Racing Post Chase. But the horse managed to win nonetheless in a driving finish from the useful French raider KELAMI (39).

Gungadu is an admirably consistent horse at around three miles or less (he clearly doesn't stay much further). Throw in his point to point starts and he would have won all nine times he's run over fences at such trips since his losing racecourse debut but for one very unlucky half length loss to a multiple Grade 1 placed rival.

FOREST PENNANT NEARLY CAUGHT OUT BY SLOW PACE

After whittering on about him interminably in recent weeks I would have been rather embarrassed if FOREST PENNANT (17) had failed to win at Taunton last week. In fact he very nearly lost thanks to a decent rival that was allowed to set a very slow pace.

The rival in question was SHINING GALE (17) who almost certainly had some minor but at the time unreported problem on his most recent start (seeing he traveled smoothly, hung left then stopped quickly).

Here Shining Gale got away with setting a very modest pace. Then his rider decided to speed things up from the fifth last and quickly shook off everything but Forest Pennant and POP (11) who the pair steadily lost from two out.

Shining Gale was really moving over the last five flights, getting from there to the line 5.7 seconds faster than in the quickest hurdle run over the 2.5f shorter trip of 2m 1f on the same card. Nonetheless it always looked clear that Forest Pennant would get by him as he was also moving really strongly, and he duly did so in a driving sprint finish.

Clearly Forest Pennant will do better off a stronger pace because he needs a proper test of stamina. Equally clearly though he was up against a useful rival in Shining Gale.

It was nice to see that this time around Forest Pennant showed no inclination whatsoever to come off a straight line or idle. I've noted before that he's run steadily less green as he's gained experience, and he continued the trend by not running green at all here.

Forest Pennant deserves to be favorite for the EBF Final at Sandown next month which, as I suspected, is now his target. I guess Shining Gale will also go there as will Oscar Bay, the horse that chased home Forest Pennant in his other most recent win. I'd be a bit surprised if either was able to beat Forest Pennant though as he's clearly running more professionally as he gains experience and improving as a result.

Next season I'd bet on Forest Pennant developing into a candidate for the Sun Alliance Chase. He's built and bred for three miles over fences and looks a seriously good prospect for the bigger jumps.

Shining Gale has already won over fences, in his sole completed point to point start. The indications are at this stage that he'll be best at around two and a half miles when he makes the transition to the bigger jumps as his trainer says he didn't stay 2m 5f over hurdles and his point to point win wasn't in a strongly run race.

HOBBS HILL WILL BE BACK

My studies of sectional times suggest that the most dangerous thing a jockey can do is to ask a novice steeplechaser to sprint. When they do so they give their inexperienced mount very little chance to measure the fences correctly. The result is very often a fall or a bad blunder. The best recent example of this was at Taunton where Acambo and Russian Around were involved in a sprint finish when they fell upsides each other two out. Another example was the Feltham Novices Chase where Heres Johnny and Joe Lively both blundered badly and almost fell as they were made to jump the last at a sprint following a farcically slow early pace.

The latest sad example of this situation came at Kempton where the rider of HOBBS HILL decided to kick on around the home turn. He was flying as he charged at the third last, as were his two pursuers PUR DE SIVOLA and OSLOT (35). In fact he got from the fourth last the the third last a second quicker than in both the other chases on the day even though they were really motoring around the home turn in those contests as well. The result was another stereo fall by Hobbs Hill and Pur De Sivola, the two horses who were going best of all.

Thankfully neither Hobbs Hill or Pur De Sivola were seriously injured. Both live to fight another day. Hobbs Hill continues to look a seriously good two and a half mile chaser. And Pur De Sivola showed that the fast time he clocked at Wincanton on his previous start was no fluke. He remains a smart horse on right-handed tracks. I'm sure that both he and Hobbs Hill would once more have earned ratings similar to the 38 plus that I've awarded them in the past if they'd stood up. I just wish I could say for sure which of them would have won. They were both going well at the time.

DESERT QUESTS WANTS LONGER

MODICUM (37) earned a pattern class speed rating from me for the fourth time in his last six starts when winning a good two mile novice chase in fast time at Huntingdon.

Previously I've suggested that since he's a tall, long striding sort that looks built for longer trips Modicum wasn't really suited to two miles. But he's never had any problem laying up with the pace over two miles and didn't have here. He did make a few minor jumping errors but won this well and was still traveling strongly at the finish. Of course this again suggests he'll do better over longer. But that's for later. For now I think Modicum has done enough to warrant a crack at the Arkle, a race where it's no bad thing to have more stamina than the other runners due to the likely fierce pace and steep uphill finish. I doubt he can win there but a first four finish is entirely plausible.

DESERT QUEST (36) ran a good race to take second, finishing the race absolutely full of running. This prompted some to suggest he wasn't trying very hard but it had me scrambling for the form book to see how well he'd done at longer distance. Sure enough I found that Desert Quest has won both times he's gone two and a half miles in the past and that his best win came in the fiercely run County Hurdle over an extended two miles at Cheltenham which, as we all know, is a very stiff track.

As I see it Desert Quest is crying out for a step back up in distance to two and a half miles. This being so it's a bit of a pity he wasn't entered for the Jewson at Cheltenham this year. But there's always Aintree where he would surely have a great chance in the two and a half mile novice's handicap chase for amateur riders. Desert Quest has won two of the four times he's been ridden by a jockey who's claimed an allowance and seems a pretty straightforward ride. So he'd be an ideal candidate for that race. If he were mine I'd be inclined to keep him fresh for that race, not just because that's a good idea this late in the season but also because it would protect the relatively low official rating Desert Quest will have earned by keeping to shorter distances over fences.

WEE FORBEES (26) turned into the straight in a very close third place, going well enough to maybe even win the race. But he stopped pretty quickly thereafter and was allowed to come home in his own time. He would have finished a lot closer without improving his finishing position if ridden out. The most likely explanation for this poor run is that, like a lot of two and two and a half mile chasers, Wee Forbees is best fresh and now needs a break of five weeks or more.

Trainer Nicky Henderson has done a remarkable job of finding four tiny fields in a row for the ultra-timid ROYALS DARLING. The horse has only ever won in fields of five or less and seems to have a dreadful fear of being crowded and especially of falling. Here he unfortunately made a bad blunder at the fourth and came closer to falling than he ever has in his career. This clearly unnerved him because he dropped out from first to last within a few strides and had to be ridden along soon after to face up to the fences, jockey Mick Fitzgerald even having to draw his whip out at one point. Royals Darling wouldn't pick up again however and Fitzgerald sensibly pulled him up.

At least Nicky Henderson knows what the problem is with Royals Darling; the horse is scared of falling. And there are several ways to address it. Obviously the first thing is to switch Royals Darling back to hurdles. But in the off season he can also be re-schooled over fences and tried at something like show jumping, eventing or hunting to give him more confidence in his jumping. Henderson is a smart, old school trainer. I'd bet on his skills turning Royals Darling around, probably not this season, but certainly by the next. This is a smart young horse that's shown pattern class ability in Germany, France and Britain. I wouldn't desert him yet, well maybe I would for now. But watch out for him first time next season when Henderson has had a chance to really get to work on him.

HOLD EM PROBABLY NOT QUITE GOOD ENOUGH FOR BALLYMORE PROEPRTIES

The Sidney Banks Memorial is a good novice hurdle at Huntingdon over an extended two and a half miles that deserves Listed status. That's certainly true this year judged by the time that the winner HOLD EM (37).

Hold Em was restrained at the rear in the early stages but moved up to chase the first three when they were halfway down the far side for the second time. From there things became a bit difficult for him as the early pace had been good but was slow enough for Matuhi to kick on and turn it into a sprint from the third last. This didn't seem to suit Hold Em at all as he was flat to the boards entering the straight. However his two main rivals were LIGHTNING STRIKE (37) and JUNIOR (37) two proper chasing sorts who were even less well suited by the sprint finish than he was. He gradually managed to get to this pair and lead at the last. But they were coming right back at him up the run in as their stamina kicked in and started to override his speed.

Hold Em just held on by a short head. And clearly his connections are right to say he'll be better suited to Cheltenham as he'll get a stronger early pace in the Ballymore Properties and the uphill finish should offset his lack of acceleration. However, smart as Hold Em's record is, I didn't like the way that Junior, a big old boat of a three mile chaser on looks, was wearing him down again up the run in. Hold Em will be facing horses with a far better finishing kick than Junior at Cheltenham. So I think he's going to be outrun in the closing stages.

Hold Em does look a decent chasing prospect and I rather suspect he'll be back at Cheltenham next year for the Arkle. Over hurdles it looks to me that he's not quite capable of winning in Graded company.

Junior was really floundering as the sprint from the third last began. But this big tall three mile chasing sort was bearing down on the winner all the way from the last and only just failed to get up. He'll obviously appreciate the uphill finish at Cheltenham. But he's so one-paced I have trouble seeing him breaking his maiden over hurdles at the seventh attempt there. His future surely lies in chases over three miles plus. Then again if he was steered towards the Spa Hurdle rather than the Coral Cup at Cheltenham you'd have to have a think about him as the marathon distance might just pull him into it.

Lightning Strike is a classy looking sort with a huge raking stride. He was able to more or less keep tabs on Matuhi as that one began the sprint from three out and was keeping on strongly all the way to the line. He has thrown in a few bad runs that I just can't explain except to say that he's probably best fresh and can hold his from for three runs after a three month plus break and then needs five weeks off thereafter to run well again.

Whatever it is that causes Lightning Strike's occasional poor runs will no doubt become clearer in time. Meanwhile I suspect he's going to prove the best horse to come out of this race and will prove really useful over two and a half miles, perhaps three, over fences. Given his big stride I'm not sure that I'd fancy him over really fast ground over jumps as he'd be hitting the ground too hard.

MIDDLETONE DENE (36) is yet another chasing sort to run well in this race. He was outpaced most of all when the sprint began from three out but was gaining ground on the first three pretty rapidly from the last. He'd won four staying hurdles in a row before this and I wouldn't dismiss his chances of at least placing in the Spa Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival over a longer trip. Next year he's going to make a useful novice chaser though I can see him getting outpaced a few times on fast ground off a slow early pace, even over three miles.

PIGEON ISLAND HAS A SHOT AT AINTREE

PIGEON ISLAND (37) produced a tremendous burst of finishing speed to run away with the Grade 2 Dovecote Novice's Hurdle at Kempton last week. In fact he came home from the second last a quarter of a second quicker than Binocular, a horse with a tremendous finishing kick of his own. Binocular actually came home 0.15 of a second quicker from the last, but that's probably because, unlike Pigeon Island, he was still being challenged.

At this point it doesn't look likely that Pigeon Island will be able to reproduce this level of form in the Supreme Novices at Cheltenham because his record suggests he prefers dead flat tracks. He's won the last five times he's run on a flat track following a recent run but lost all ten times he's run on courses with even moderate gradients.

The obvious place to get interested in Pigeon Island is Aintree where I'd fancy his chances if he got the fast ground horses with a turn of foot like his invariably need.

Numide did win a minor six runner race at a Provincial track in France on good ground. Otherwise his form on what I rate yielding or softer going shows five wins from six tries with a narrow loss to a Group 1 winner in his sole defeat. In his remaining eight tries other than that Provincial win on good ground he's failed to reach the first three.

I think it's significant that Numide's new trainer Gary Moore steered the horse towards Folkestone and Leicester for his two UK hurdle runs so far. Fokestone and Leicester are the two UK tracks where the hurdles courses invariably ride much slower than the chase course due to drainage problems. When it's good on the chase course at either track it's usually soft on the hurdles track. And it was actually heavy judged by race times for Numide's two UK wins so far.

I still believe that Numide is one hell of a horse. I'd bet him to beat almost anything on really soft going and hope I get the chance to do that in what's left of this season.

I'MSINGINGTHEBLUES (31) was cruising on the home turn and looked the winner as he kicked into the lead heading into the straight. But, as at Cheltenham last time, he failed to last home. His wins have all been in slow run races on fast ground. It would seem he's a short runner, but one that's capable of beating smart rivals in tactically run races on fast ground, especially on tight tracks.

BINOCULAR SHOWS THAT ACCELERATION AGAIN

BINOCULAR (37) produced a tremendous burst of acceleration to win on his hurdling debut at Ascot. He did so again when taking a Grade 2 Juvenile Hurdle at Kempton last week. But this time he had another horse finishing fast right alongside him. He and PIERROT LUNAIRE (37) sprinted away from the second last, opening up an eleven length gap on their pursuers by the line. Inevitably Binocular proved to have the better finishing kick close home and won the race nicely.

Binocular is a mature, good-bodied sort for a juvenile hurdler, a horse that will obviously jump a fence in time. Meanwhile his turn of foot makes him a formidable rival against juvenile hurdlers.

So far Binocular has never run in anything but a small field or tried an undulating or stiff track. It's therefore very hard to figure out how he'll perform in the very different circumstances that he'll encounter at Cheltenham. My guess is that it will turn out he actually prefers smaller fields and easier courses. But that's only speculation at this stage.

My first impression of Pierrot Lunaire a few runs back was that he was somewhat narrow and immature, would improve at two and a half miles and would jump a fence when he'd filled out a bit. This race confirmed those impressions. He kept on really well with the winner when they kicked clear. As a juvenile he's not going to get many chances to run longer than two miles. But when he does he'll surely improve a bit.

Trainer Paul Nicholls feels that Pierrot Lunaire, due to his light-framed physique, needs more time between his runs than he's been giving him. So he plans to skip Cheltenham and keep him fresh for Aintree. That sounds like a smart plan. If it came up soft at Aintree, making it more of a stamina test, I'd rather fancy Pierrot Lunaire's chances.

KICKS FOR FREE PROBABLY BEST ON A FLAT TRACK

KICKS FOR FREE (37) returned from time off with a fractured tibia and a breathing operation to win comfortably at Kempton. I don't like the idea of him going to Cheltenham though as most horses that have had breathing or leg problems dislike undulating tracks as the gradients place too much stress on their breathing and forelegs.

Horses with breathing problems are also best fresh normally. In this regard it's interesting to note that the five wins scored by Kicks For Free have all been on dead flat tracks and on one of his first two starts of the season. If he were mine I'd be keeping him fresh and heading for Aintree instead of Cheltenham.

KING LOUIS WORTH A SHOT AT JEWSON

KING LOUIS (31) earned a rating of 36 from me when winning at Ascot earlier this season. And he almost certainly would have done so again at Sandown last week if FABULOUS JET (28) hadn't set an insanely fast pace for the first three fences which caused the entire field to tire in the closing stages.

Fabulous Jet simply charged at the first three fences. In fact he reached the third in just 1 minute 16.9 seconds. That's 5.2 seconds sooner than they did in Noland's race where they were by no means going slow. Fabulous Jet was basically running way too fast to last home or measure his fences properly and paid the penalty with an almighty blunder at the third. That seemed to scare both him and his jockey straight because they slowed up immediately, taking 3.3 seconds longer from there to get to the third last than they did in Noland's race. But even though they slowed up for so long you can't go as hard as Fabulous Jet did early without paying the penalty later. And sure enough everything tired up the straight. They took 4.4 seconds longer than in Noland's race to reach the finish from the third last and King Louis took two seconds longer to get from the last to the finish line - looking tired as he did so.

King Louis basically outstayed his rivals in a race that rode more like a two and a half mile contest thanks to Fabulous Jet's early pacemaking effort. He's a big strong sort and I have to agree with his trainer who says he can't believe he won't stay two and a half miles. He's obviously a decent performer when he gets the fast surface he needs and deserves a shot at the Jewson at the Cheltenham Festival.

THE WHISPERER SHOULD WIN AGAIN

THE WHISPERER (36) jumped awfully well when winning a decent novice chase at Newcastle over three miles. He clearly had the race won by the entrance to the straight but you could sense his jockey decided it would be better to have some company for the horse to jump with so she didn't kick on until the runner-up ALLISTATHEBARRISTA (35) rallied and made a late run to try and challenge.

The Whisperer basically only had to be shaken up to hold the challenge and I suspect he could have run a smidge quicker if he'd been pushed along all the way up the straight.

The Whisperer won an Irish point to point impressively by eight lengths on his only previous try over fences. And he didn't touch a twig in that race either. He's been hard to keep sound but is clearly a useful staying chaser who should be able to win again soon.

MY WAY DE SOLZEN BACK TO FORM

I predicted that MY WAY DE SOLZEN (37) would bounce back to form when he reverted to an undulating track. Sure enough he did so when running second in the National Spirit Trophy at Fontwell to LOUGH DERG (38).

It was rather a messy race for My Way De Solzen. First of all he was nearly brought down when Gold Gun fell right under him at the sixth. Then his jockey decided the race was only between him and Elusive Dream and engaged in a sprint duel with that one from three out. My Way De Solzen won the sprint against Elusive Dream but it tired him so badly he was beginning to wander about approaching the last and fell victim to Lough Derg's late rally as he wandered even more on the run in.

I guess if he hadn't been hampered and had been ridden a bit more conservatively My Way De Solzen would have won this race well. It certainly looked like turning out that way as they turned into the straight. But I have to say that my gut feel from watching him here is that he should be going for the Ryanair Chase rather than the World Hurdle. I know he won the World Hurdle before. Now though he looks and runs like a two and a half mile chaser.

Still, My Way De Solzen does have a remarkably good record on undulating tracks and has won at the Cheltenham Festival in each of the last two years. So I'll be thinking hard before I oppose him at the big meeting.

The obvious horse to oppose My Way De Solzen with at Cheltenham if this run is any guide has to be Kasbah Bliss who beat Lough Derg last time. As I've mentioned before it seems clear that Lough Derg himself doesn't quite get the three miles at Cheltenham. He ran another fine race over a shorter trip here though, rallying strongly to pick up My Way De Solzen as that one tired.

In fact I rather wonder whether Lough Derg gets three miles over hurdles anywhere but Ascot, a track where I've noticed many apparent non-stayers have lasted trips they haven't seemed to stay elsewhere over the years. So far Lough Derg has won seven of his fifteen starts over hurdles at less than three miles. That Ascot win is his sole success in nine other hurdles outings over three miles plus.

I was misled into fancying ELUSIVE DREAM (36) by an inaccurate official going report (it said good when race times indicated it was actually soft). And he certainly looked a big threat as he dueled with My Way De Solzen in the sprint from three out. But he's never lasted national hunt distances on soft ground before and sure enough he ended up tiring from before the last here.

BACKBORD DOES IT AGAIN

BACKBORD (39) is bang there with the best staying hurdlers on my speed ratings. And he proved it with a second successive win in a valuable handicap hurdle at Ascot.

Under pressure from quite some way out Backbord stayed on really strongly up the run in to get up on the line.

I've mentioned before that Backbord has many of the attributes of a horse that's got breathing problems in that he prefers fast ground and appears to dislike steep undulations. Initially I though these preferences weren't so clear cut. But on closer inspection I see that he's actually won four of the five times he's gone longer distances on what I rate good ground over jumps when he's been on a track without steep undulations. His sole loss was a good second place finish off a three month lay-off. He's failed to reach the first three the three times he's run on a track that the Racing Post describe as undulating. On balance therefore I'm inclined to take a negative view about his chances at Cheltenham.

PEACOCK (39) had the race won everywhere but on the line. He's very consistent on fast ground but is a five year old and the stats show five year old hurdlers have a really tough time winning big handicaps or conditions races over longer trips - at least in seasons they begin as four year olds. Next season though we should anticipate major improvement from Peacock if history is any guide. A five year old that can run this well in a hot staying hurdle in February is likely to be competitive against pretty much anything in November or December. For now it makes sense to shoot for the Coral Cup. But smart as he ran here, the stats show over fifty five year olds have tried to win that race before him and all failed.

ELUSIVE DREAM STILL SMART IN A SMALL FIELD

I've noted before that ELUSIVE DREAM (33) has a smart record in small fields. He added to it with a most impressive win in a good novice hurdle at Ascot.

ANOTHER HUGE PERFORMANCE FROM KAUTO STAR

KAUTO STAR (46) ran another extraordinarily fast time to win the Ascot Chase from MONET'S GARDEN (43) and RACING DEMON (43). I have to award him the same huge speed rating as when he won the King George. It was truly remarkable effort. No horse has run as fast over jumps in recent years, at least not according to my ratings.

A comparison with the 2m 1f chase on the same card gives some idea of the quality of Kauto Star's performance. The best I can say from the available video (which doesn't quite show the entire race over the shorter trip) is that if you started a stopwatch during Kauto Star's race at the 2m 1f point you'd find that he came home from there more than two seconds quicker than the winner of the four and a half furlong shorter race, Lord Henry. And he did so after being towed along at a terrific pace for the first four and a half furlongs by Fair Along. There was no way Lord Henry was running slow either.

If you'd told me beforehand that a horse could run furiously fast for more than half a mile and then run an additional two miles and a furlong over two seconds faster than a decent horse that had only just started I probably wouldn't have believed you. It seems almost impossible, but this is what Kauto Star did.

A comparison with the sectional times for the other chase on the card points towards the same huge speed rating as do the lines of form and a projection from the shorter chase. Kauto Star really did run that fast, and he's now done it twice in a row.

This raises the obvious question of just how good Kauto Star is in historical terms. Some perspective is provided by the rating of 212 awarded by Timeform to Arkle. This equals a rating of 51 on my scale. The best speed rating I know of on the flat was the 149 Beyer rating that Andy Beyer says he would have given Secretariat for his 30 length romp in the 1973 Belmont Stakes. Again, a Beyer rating of 149 equals 51 on my scale. This would appear to be the upper limit of what's physically possible and is exactly a second per mile ahead of Kauto Star. A second is counted as four lengths in UK NH racing. So if Kauto Star had been up against Arkle at Ascot he'd have lost by around ten lengths.

I do hope this huge performance following a break doesn't cause Kauto Star to regress or 'bounce' as the Americans say in the all too short 26 days before the Gold Cup. It has to be a concern but that's a consideration for another day. Right now I think it's worth celebrating one of the best performances we've seen from a chaser in years.

Monet's Garden run right up to his very best to chase the Champion home. So I guess this finally knocks on the head the idea that the horse can't show his top form down South. The trick of shipping him down on the morning of the race does seem to work. Still he doesn't seem to run his best at Cheltenham. So it's probably a wise move to steer him towards a repeat of his Melling Chase win at Aintree instead. If he wins that it will be his twelfth victory in thirteen starts on northern tracks.

This was the first time Racing Demon had lost over fences on a right handed track at less than three miles in six completed starts. Wall know that he's best going right-handed, but this smart run does also seem to confirm that he's best at slightly less than three miles too.

Like a lot of very fast shorter distance chasers Racing Demon appears to be best fresh, as he was for this run. Seven of his eight wins have come on one of his first two starts of the season or following a five week plus break thereafter. The exception was a minor novice hurdle that he won back in 2004.

The final requirement for Racing Demon is probably a small field because he seems to only jump properly when he can be aimed at the wing of the fence closest to the rail, and this is much easier to achieve in a smaller field.

Put together all his apparent requirements and it looks like Racing Demon has very few opportunities for future success this season. He could cut back to two miles for the Kerrygold Champion Chase at the Punchestown Festival or the Celebration Chase at Sandown's big Spring meeting. Or he could have another shot at three miles in the Guinness Gold Cup. None of them are hugely attractive options and Racing Demon's chance in any of them would probably be compromised if his connections opted to run him at Cheltenham.

However there is one huge prize that is surely there for the taking by Racing Demon. This is the world's second richest jump race, the Nakayama Grand Jump run in mid-April. The Nakayama Grand Jump takes place on a right-handed course over almost exactly the same distance as the Ascot Chase. Yes Racing Demon would need to be rigorously re-schooled to get him used to jumping Japanese style fences. But the race looks a far better option than anything available to him locally. As I see it his owners would be crazy not to keep him fresh and take a shot at the race.

FAIR ALONG (37) took the field along at a very strong gallop and might well have equaled his best ever speed rating of 40 but for smashing the tenth fence hard and losing valuable momentum. He's an admirable little horse. But his lack of stature is always going to make it hard for him to be competitive in big fields. And I don't think he's ever going to be quite good enough to win a Grade 1. Still, in fields of fourteen or less below Grade 1 he has now won seven times out of nine in his completed jumps starts, so he's very reliable. He's also very versatile as to course, distance and going. Therefore I think he'll easily be placed to win several more decent prizes.

ALBERTAS RUN SHOULD GO FOR NATIONAL HUNT CHASE

ALBERTAS RUN (37) won a slightly sub-par renewal of the Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot in decent style. Always moving well at the back of the field, he made progress to join issue before the straight, led at the last and then always looked like holding the run of the runner-up AIR FORCE ONE (36) despite having to be driven out to do so.

Albertas Run has the build of a Grand National rather than a Gold Cup horse and does seem to have almost bottomless stamina. He also seems to hit the same sort of Grade 3 speed rating all the time. So I think his best chance at the Cheltenham Festival would lie in the National Hunt Chase over four miles rather than the Sun Alliance over three.

The way that Albertas Run got stretched into making mistakes in a sprint finish over two and a half miles when second to Tidal Bay shows how vulnerable he can be when his rivals go a fast pace over fences. This looks more likely to happen than not at Cheltenham, seeing that it's a novice race where the runners tend to go slow then quicken up. Here he got a strong early pace and this helped him as he obviously stays very well indeed.

Albertas Run has won on soft ground but has a fast ground action. So I suspect he's always going to be best on a quick surface like this over the bigger jumps. I guess he's bound to go for the Sun Alliance Chase now. But I just can't understand why he's favourite for that race. Even if you disagree with me about him lacking the pace to win a Grade 1 over three miles you only need glance at the stats to see how wrong the betting is. No Reynoldstown winner has won the Sun Alliance Chase since 1973 even though six have started favourite.

Runner up Air Force One has now lost all eight pattern or feature races that he's contested but won the last six times he's run in lesser contests. He did however run his best race to date here, staying on strongly after being under pressure some way out. It could well be that given a greater test of stamina through soft ground or a longer distance he'll finally take a big race. But I very much doubt it will be the Sun Alliance Chase.

If there was a future Grade 1 winner in the race I suspect it was the close third BATTLECRY (36) who impressed me greatly with his performance.

Battlecry is a classy looking three mile chasing sort who made a tremendous effort to break his field by kicking on at a terrific clip from the seventh last. From there he got all his rivals on the stretch but the effort told by two out and he was tiring at that point. You can see why when you realize that he actually ran 1.4 seconds faster than they went in the shorter Ascot Chase from the seventh last to the second last. Clearly it was an enormous effort to go faster Kauto Star for so long.

Battlecry obviously has a few kinks to work out. He put himself out of one race with a terrible blunder and lost his action in another. But given the fast ground he seems to need he's also run some terrific races. This was one of them.

It may well be that Battlecry's obvious greenness prevents him from winning at the Cheltenham Festival. However I'm going to think long and hard about opposing him in any race over three miles plus on fast ground in future, whether its over hurdles or fences.

The distant fourth OVER THE CREEK (29) got outpaced in the Reynoldstown last year and had the same problem this time. Clearly he needs at least three and a quarter miles unless the going is really soft. Over the much longer trip in the National Hunt Chase he still looks likely to be a major player.

KASBAH BLISS THE ONE TO BEAT IN WORLD HURDLE

I was beginning to get a bit despondent about my long range pick for the World Hurdle KASBAH BLISS (38) until he blew home most impressively in the Rendlesham Hurdle at Haydock.

TAZBAR IS A SMART STAYER

It always looked likely that TAZBAR (38) would improve over a longer distance. And so it proved. He won by 38 lengths when he was stepped up to 2m 6f and has now blown home in the Prestige Novices Hurdle over three miles by a dozen lengths in seriously fast time.

On this run Tazbar has to rank as one of the big players in the Spa Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. But his trainer clearly believes that he'll be better suited to Aintree. It's tough to tell much from the form of such a lightly raced horse. But experience tells me trainers usually know what they're talking about when they say what suits their horses. So if Tazbar does run below form at Cheltenham I'd bear this in mind when he runs at Aintree.

HUGE RUN BY WANANGO

WANANGO (39) ran tremendously fast to run away with a good two mile chase at Uttoxeter. He was always moving strongly and simply powered away from three out to win full of running.

If he can reproduce this form in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham he'll have a serious chance.

The concern is that, like most really good two mile chasers, Wanango does seem to be best fresh. All his wins have come on one of his first two starts of the season or with a six week plus break thereafter. The thing is his last run came eleven weeks after his previous run which was in turn his first start in eleven months. My inclination therefore is to say Wanango will be fresh enough at Cheltenham and that makes him look very interesting indeed.

KATCHIT GETS INTERESTING FOR 2009 CHAMPION HURDLE

The last 73 five year olds to run in the Champion Hurdle have all lost and the last three horses this young to win the race were Persian War, Night Nurse and See You Then, three of the best hurdlers in the last forty years. This being so it's pretty clear that the five year old KATCHIT (39) is simply not going to be mature enough to win the Champion Hurdle this year. But he's an admirably consistent horse who improved a bit to win the Kingwell Hurdle in good style

Katchit ran just about as fast as a five year old can run over hurdles here. As I've said, he's almost certainly not going to be good enough to win the Champion Hurdle this year. Next year though is another matter. He might well have improved enough to at least be competitive by then.

I think it's significant that trainer Alan King believes Katchit is best with time between his runs. He was able to win against juveniles when he wasn't fresh last season. But this term his two wins have been when he's been rested and his two losses have come when he hasn't been. Until I'm proven wrong I'll be expecting this pattern to continue.

PUNCHESTOWNS HAS A REAL SHOT AT PUNCHESTOWN

A few years ago the best horse in Germany was called Germany. Now, following his win at Sandown we have a shot at an even more geographically specific coincidence winner in PUNCHESTOWNS (36).

Punchestowns only lost by a head to a horse that went on to run third in a Group race on his final French start. In fact if a couple of very close finishes had gone the other way this would have been his fifth successive victory.

Here, on his hurdling debut, Punchestowns had to be pushed along with the rest of the field as the runner up THE PACKAGE (35) kicked on around the home turn. But he steadily worked his way forwards and ran that one down on the run-in with a tremendous finishing burst. In fact he came home up the hill slightly faster than in the juvenile hurdle where they'd gone really slow in the early stages (9.3 seconds slower to the third last to be precise).

I'm not sure I'd like to bet Punchestowns to win again over the minimum distance. His sire's best hurdles run came over an extended two and a half miles (the furthest he tried). And 18 of his previous 19 UK and Irish jumps winners had been over two and a half miles plus. In addition Punchestowns is stoutly bred on the dam's side as well. I concede there's nothing at all close up in his pedigree on the dam's side. But the closest relations on that side were almost all Cross Country chasers, most of whom stayed three and three quarter miles.

If The Package hadn't set a good pace and there wasn't a steep uphill finish to pull him into the race I suspect Punchestowns would have lost here.

Long term Punchestowns has the build for chasing. But meanwhile over two and a half miles he might well be able to improve the small amount required to be at least competitive at the Punchestown Festival.

The Package is much pacier sort and set a decent gallop here. His jockey allowed him to stride on a bit more from just before the third last and nudged his mount to accelerate around the home turn. This initially looked to be a race winning move as it got all his rivals on the stretch barring NIGHT CRU (26).

The Package actually ran just three fifths of a second slower on the long run from the third last to the second last than they had in the juvenile hurdle where they'd gone much slower early on. He kept on really well in the circumstances but tired enough to become vulnerable to the winner's tremendous late spurt. He also looked to idle and run green a bit in front so it was a useful effort.

Right now The Package seems best at two miles when allowed to make the running and doesn't appear to get home on soft ground. This may change in time, but it makes him look a decent bet to win or go close in pattern company, especially at Aintree where the easier track would surely help him

Night Cru was a smart horse on the flat and impressed me by being the only horse to be still on the bridle when The Package stepped up the pace rounding the home turn. This was his hurdles debut and his first run in over four months so it was inevitable he tired in the closing stages. But it looks likely that he's going to prove just as good over hurdles as he was on the flat. I'd be looking for him to win next time or the time after.

CRACKERJACK LAD LIVES UP TO HIS NAME

You don't often see a Bumper run at a strong pace. Even more rare is the kind of decent time that CRACKERJACK LAD (35) clocked when winning a strongly run race at Wetherby.

Held up mid-field, Crackerjack Lad swept imperiously into the lead entering the straight and kept moving strongly all the way to the line. Runner-up RANDOLF (34) stayed on in very determined style but Crackerjack Lad just kept on moving strongly and held him at bay. In fact Randolf actually started to tire and cede ground inside the last furlong.

Crackerjack Lad is a proper chasing sort. But he should also make a decent two and a half mile novice hurdler. He's probably not quite good enough for the big Festival Bumper races, though if it came up soft for any of them I'd consider him as stamina is clearly his strong suit from the way he kept on so strongly here.

Randolf was unlucky to come up against another smart runner in a Bumper, having previously finished second to the very useful Starting Point. If he keeps on in this type of race he will surely win one on soft ground. I imagine he doesn't have the pace to win over two miles on fast ground though. Like the winner he's a chasing prospect and is going to need three miles in time. It could be he'll flounder over hurdles in his first few starts as the shorter trips he'll probably be running will most likely be too short for him.

EVENS AND ODDS SHOWS HUGE IMPROVEMENT

EVENS AND ODDS (39) showed tremendous improvement to run away with a good six furlong sprint handicap on Southwell's Fibresand track. Clearly he loves the surface. This is not surprising given all the dirt influences in his pedigree. You could argue that it was the cut back to six furlongs that did the trick. If that's so the horse will be able to show the same form on Polytrack or turf.

On balance I think that Evens And Odds is basically a good old-fashioned dirt performer. Unfortunately there is only one track left in Britain that has a surface which resembles traditional dirt surfaces, and that's Southwell's. Unfortunately there are very few, if any, races indeed that he'd be eligible for on the surface because he won this off a mark of 94 and his new official rating will surely be over 100. If he were mine I'd be putting him on a place to America tomorrow and running him on the East Coast tracks which are still dirt.

This is one instance where I'd actually like to be wrong because Evens And Odds will be a candidate for Group sprints in Europe if I am.

FOREST PENNANT'S FORM FRANKED AGAIN

Last week Oscar Bay came out and franked the form of Forest Pennant. This week it was the turn of WIND INSTRUMENT (36) who had finished third behind that smart pair on his previous run.

Wind Instrument is a big, tall, long striding chasing sort with plenty of knee action who does nothing but stay. So it looked like the step up to three miles would suit him for sure. And so it proved. He ground out a good win in a lengthy duel with the runner up GULLIBLE GORDON (36) as the pair pulled clear of their pursuers.

I have little doubt that we'll be seeing Wind Instrument in some big staying chases sooner rather than later. I suspect he may get done for speed in a few three mile novice chases next term when the going is too fast or the early pace too slow. But long term over three and a quarter miles plus with a bit of cut in the ground I'm expecting to see him take something decent over fences. If it came up soft at Aintree I'd rather fancy his chances in the three mile novice hurdle.

Runner-up Gullible Gordon is less of an out and out marathon runner on looks. I can see him being perfectly happy at three miles over fences. He ran a big race to get so close to such a smart winner here and might easily develop into a contender for the Feltham or the Sun Alliance over fences next season. Meanwhile he looks a slam dunk for a staying novice hurdle.

Of course, for the immediate future, the lesson to take out of this race and the one won by Oscar Bay last week is that Forest Pennant must have a great chance of winning a big novice hurdle before the season is over.

SAVILE'S DELIGHT SHOULD WIN AGAIN AT SOUTHWELL

The deep Fibresand surface at Southwell has revived the form of many ageing horses in the past. And it looks to have done so again with SAVILE'S DELIGHT (37) who won a good five furlong sprint impressively at the track last week. Savile's Delight seems to need a small field on the surface, quite possibly because he dislikes the kickback produced by more runners. In any event he would now have won all four times he's run at Southwell in fields of eleven or less if he hadn't shifted his ground when losing narrowly on one occasion. He will surely be found more opportunities before the Winter is over.

SPOOF MASTER (32) was my idea of the winner. But he ran a bit below the form he showed last time to finish second. He was keeping on strongly after making the running and I continue to think he could get another furlong.

HUE A SHADE INTERESTING FOR CHELTENHAM

Due to an error in my standard times I missed a couple of big speed ratings that I should have awarded for the recent Doncaster meeting. The best of them was earned by BACKBORD (39), the Italian St Leger winner, who clocked a seriously fast time to win a hot staying hurdle.

In a strongly run race Backbord came through to win well despite making a couple of late errors. He's now gone on to win at Ascot in a much more valuable race.

Backbord was improved with a tongue tie according to his trainer, and this leads me to believe he has some difficulty with his breathing. The fact that he must have good ground is the norm for horses with breathing problems too. So far Backbord has run twelve times at longer distances (12f plus flat, 19f plus jumps) on good or faster ground. He's won eight of these twelve starts. He was brought down in one of his losses and ran good races to place against smart rivals in the other three.

There has to be a slight concern that Backbord won't like the undulations of Cheltenham like many horses with breathing problems. But I'd put the chance of this at only around 30-40% given his consistency and versatility. So he does look to be a big player in whatever of the staying handicap hurdles he goes for at the Festival.

RINGAROSES (38) ran a smart race to finish second off a 14 month lay-off. Then again he's a high strung sort who gets himself fit at home. Indeed trainer Henrietta Knight has said he is best with time between his runs.

Ringaroses, as usual, was held up right at the back and came with a big long run up the straight to take second on the line, finishing best of all. He encountered traffic problems twice as he was making his run and you have to worry that this was more due to his character than the traffic. At home he has to be turned out in a field all day and needs to be stabled next to ponies rather than other horses. He's clearly not too happy about being crowded by his own kind. And you can see this in his races where exaggerated waiting tactics are employed and his jockey often steers him wide to avoid other runners. This being so you have to wonder how well he'll cope with twice as many runners in the Coral Cup. That said this was the only defeat Ringaroses has suffered in five starts on a fast surface, so it may be that all he needs is a smart jockey who understands how to ride him.

In any event, as Knight says, Ringaroses has a light action and needs fast ground for this reason. He has the build of a chaser too. Next season he's surely going to make a smart chaser. Right now he clearly merits serious consideration for the Coral Cup. Given his need for being fresh that race would appear to be his one shot at a big prize in what's left of the season. And you have to believe Knight has chosen for what is probably her best horse other than Racing Demon.

This was the best run that third placed PREMIER DANE (38) has ever run according to my speed ratings. And I suspect that the step up to a longer distance was the cause. He'd been outpaced then rallied over two miles behind Jack The Giant. Overall his form does suggest a preference for a stiff test of stamina.

So far Premier Dane has run four times on really stiff tracks or over two and a quarter miles plus on the fast ground he needs. He won two of those four times. His two losses were his two best lifetime efforts on my ratings - this run and his close third in last year's County Hurdle.

It needs mentioning that so far all of Premier Dane's five wins have come in fields of eight or less. He has in fact won five times out of nine in fields that small over seven furlongs plus on fast ground. He's yet to win in bigger fields in 18 tries. However his two best runs have been third place finishes in hot handicaps where stacks of runners lined up. So I'm not yet convinced the pattern in his form is that meaningful. The horse clearly merits consideration for any hurdle he contests on fast ground over longer trips or on very stiff tracks.

HUE (38) ran a big race to finish fourth. He's a quirky sort that needs to be held up way at the back. He can make a huge move in a race but hates to be touched with the whip so is obviously a tricky ride. Here it looked to me that he hit the front too soon. He made a big move to go into a narrow lead two out but then did his usual trick of putting his head to the left and being inclined to shift ground in that direction. As the first two went away from him he stopped doing this and ran straight.

It looks to me that Hue is best in big field handicaps where the strong pace ensures he can deliver his ultra-late run effectively. His previous five wins had all come when he'd been able to lead inside the final furlong. In fact in fields of twelve or more his record in handicaps over two miles plus on yielding or faster ground showed five wins out of five. This makes him look a very interesting candidate for the Cheltenham Festival where the huge fields and steep uphill finish will enable him to be delivered very late.

VOY POR USTEDES ON TARGET FOR THREEPEAT AT FESTIVAL

I suggested after his last start that VOY POR USTEDES (37) was always going to be vulnerable over two miles when the early pace was slow. This proved to be the case in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury.

Nothing was prepared to go on in the early stages. In fact the field stood still for the first 6.8 seconds as all the riders looked at each other hoping that one of them would break ranks and start running. The one that eventually did so was MASTER MINDED (39) who was allowed to set a remarkably slow early pace for a top two mile chase.

Master Minded reached the eighth fence 5.3 seconds later than they did in the 2007 Game Spirit when you make allowance for the slight difference in going. About a hundred yards after the fence he was kicked into top gear and began a long sprint over the last mile which he completed four seconds faster than Well Chief in last year's race, again when you take account of the difference in going.

Voy Por Ustedes was naturally flat to the boards as the sprint began. But on the run in his stamina kicked in and he finally began to wear away at the gap Master Minded had opened up on him to finish a respectable five lengths second.

As handler Alan King pointed out, he's training Voy Por Ustedes to peak for Cheltenham and the winner was gifted a soft lead. In the circumstances this was a huge run from the reigning two mile Champion. From where I stand he's looking a good thing to win at the Cheltenham Festival for the third year in a row.

Mahogany Blaze is a big handsome horse with obvious stamina problems. He doesn't seem to last home on really stiff tracks like Cheltenham, in races much beyond two miles or in big field handicaps where the early pace is invariably searching. But prior to this run if one photo had gone the other way he would have won five of the six times he'd run two miles on easy courses in fields of 13 or less.

Following this wide margin loss and surely another if he takes in the Arkle I'm now salivating at the prospect of getting big odds about Mahogany Blaze at the Aintree Festival. He's romped home by a wide margin both times he's run over fences on tight tracks, once in Grade 2 company. I strongly fancy his chances of making it three out of three at Aintree.

CARRUTHERS GETS INTERESTING FOR SPA HURDLE

CARRUTHERS (36) put up a most impressive display of front running to win by a wide margin at Bnagor. And if he hadn't been eased up heavily on the run in he'd have earned a speed rating of 39 from me. He was exactly eight seconds ahead of his rivals as he jumped the last and was then eased down to pass the line 6.3 seconds ahead. He would undoubtedly have at least maintained the eight second gap if he'd been ridden out, hence my confidence about the bigger rating.

The most impressive aspect of Carruthers' performance was the way he accelerated from the ninth jump. He jumped that 1.8 seconds ahead, increased his lead to 3.2 seconds at the next and then a full six seconds by the next. His prolonged burst left his rivals floundering.

The obvious concern is that Carruthers may not act as well on faster ground at the Cheltenham Festival. His dam, Plaid Maid, was a mudlark and his sire, Kyaf Tara, did do very well on soft ground as well. However Kayf Tara was able to show his best on fast ground over extreme distances so perhaps Carruthers will follow suit. If not there's always Aintree.

DENMAN GOES SLOW YET AGAIN

Hype wins races. It frightens away a horse's opposition. And the riders of the rivals that do turn up are often scared into adopting self-defeating tactics. There's no better example of this than DENMAN (23) who took the Aon Chase at Newbury last week in remarkably slow time.

On his previous start in the Lexus Chase I thought that The Listener was just bound to put Denman's jumping under pressure and expose what I think are his stamina limitations by setting a strong pace. But his rider simply refused to take Denman on. He explained afterwards that he was afraid to because he felt it would only play into Denman's hands. In other words he believed the hype. As a result the early pace was incredibly slow.

It was an identical story in the Aon Chase. Here it looked certain that the gung ho front runner Ollie Magern would blaze a trail and finally reveal what I see as Denman's suspect stamina and stretch him into jumping errors. But once more the jockey on a horse that's normally a tear away front runner just wouldn't take Denman on. He only went three quarters of racing pace for the first mile and was perfectly happy to let Denman amble past him at little more than a hack canter as they came up the straight for the first time.

Things changed on the far side as they approached the ninth fence. There finally Ollie Magern was allowed to stride on and went head to head with Denman. From that point to the Cross Fence (the fourteenth) the stopwatch shows they actually went too fast.

I ploughed through the videos of what looked like the fastest three mile chases run at Newbury in the last two years and found that the fastest they had gone from the ninth to the fourteenth fence in any of them was when Alderburn won a red hot handicap last Spring. In that race they were really flying and ran the six furlongs from the ninth to the fourteenth in 1 minute 27.5 seconds. This was clearly too fast because the entire field tired badly in the closing stages. So much so that it hurt the final time.

Denman actually ran a good deal faster than Alderburn from the ninth to the fourteenth fences. If you adjust for the difference in going from Alderburn's race he took 1 minute 26.1 seconds to run the distance.

I've found that when the runners quicken up and sprint in a jump race like this, going much faster than they should, they invariably tire pretty badly, no matter how slow they've gone earlier. This explains why the entire field slowed up so much after they'd been sprinting. In fact Denman came home from the Cross fence just 0.3 of a second quicker than Alderburn did when you adjust for the difference in going. The pace collapsed in both races.

What's amazing is that in all three of his starts this season Denman has encountered a slow early pace and won by producing a sustained sprint which has ended some way before the finish.

You could argue that Denman and Kauto Star are going to scare away most of the opposition in this year's Gold Cup and that the early pace is going to be slow as a result. This could bring about a situation that would suit Denman. But only once in the last ten running's of the race have there been less than twelve runners. This was when Best Mate was running in a very weak year, having won the previous two renewals. Since then the trend has been towards bigger fields in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, and I don't see why that should change this year. Over a dozen runners seem committed to running.

Denman has yet to prove he can stay the Gold Cup trip in a truly run race (he's certainly not bred to get it). And he has yet to have his jumping tested by the searching end to end gallop that they normally go in the big Cheltenham race. So far he's won against the slower early pace to be found in novice chases and has gotten away with brief sprints sandwiched between an otherwise slow pace against more experienced opposition. I've yet to give him a speed rating better than 39, which is only good Grade 3 class, and he'll be facing several rivals who have run faster than that at Cheltenham, including one, Kauto Star, that has run a great deal faster. If he does anything except fall or tire badly up the final hill to finish unplaced I will be very surprised.

RING THE BOSS LOOKS GOOD FOR THE ARKLE - IN 2009

RING THE BOSS (40) put up the joint best performance on my speed ratings of any novice chase debutante in recent years when going under by only a neck to KRUGUYROVA (40) in the Grade 2 Kingmaker Novices Chase at Warwick. He stuck like glue to the winner in a close second place throughout - even when she put in her usual mid-race surge which broke the will of all of her other rivals. He just kept on coming and fought with her all the way to the line.

On this run Ring The Boss will enter the Arkle as the joint quickest runner on my ratings. But I wouldn't go running away with the idea that he's actually going to win. The stats show a horse invariably needs more experience of jumping fences or at least fixed brush hurdles to take the big race. Only one Arkle winner in the last 20 years made its chasing debut after the turn of the year which hadn't previously won over fixed brush hurdles.

Clearly Ring The Boss should go for the Arkle. But his inexperience will probably find him out at some stage of the race. And it would seem foolish to lose his novice status over fences for anything less than the Arkle with so little of the season remaining. Therefore I'd say we'll be seeing Ring The Boss running in novice chases once more next season where he will be the Arkle runner with the edge in experience.

I can't recall ever having such a strong opinion about the Arkle more than a year before it's run. But Ring The Boss certainly looks an attractive proposition for the 2009 race at this stage.

One thing to bear in mind about Ring The Boss is how he was made to look bad by the slow early pace of the hurdle he lost at Cheltenham on his previous outing. Clearly he needs a strong pace to be effective at two miles. He got it here courtesy of Kruguyrova. But it's not forthcoming more than about half the time in novice chases. So I can see his record getting a little spotty next season. The two possible solutions to offset his need for a test of stamina are to step him up in distance or send him into the lead every time. I'm not sure either option is a good idea with next year's Arkle in mind. If he were mine I'd want to be training him to settle rather than take on the leaders in a race as strongly run as the Arkle usually is. And he's so effective at two miles it makes sense to keep him at the trip as a novice even though he clearly stays longer.

Kruguyrova now seems set to go for the Arkle herself. Following her loss at Newbury and her recovery of form on the tighter Warwick circuit that's beginning to look less of a good idea. The only decent explanation I can come up with for her sub-par Newbury performance is that she's at her best on a less galloping and testing track. This makes sense as she's only medium-sized, really nippy and always makes the running at a good pace.

Kruguyrova has now won the last four times she's run less than two and a half miles outside of Newbury, earning the same big speed rating from me every time. Her wins have all been achieved by making the running at a good pace and then accelerating strongly for about half a mile somewhere after halfway. She did this once more here, quickening over the five fences close together on the far side which caused all her rivals bar Ring The Boss to start floundering.

With seriously fast front runners like Fred's Benefit in the race I'd be worried about Kruguyrova being forced to run too fast early in the Arkle even if it was run on a dead flat, tight track. At Cheltenham the percentage play just has to be to bet that she'll be tiring late and get caught. After that though she'd look rather interesting for Aintree.

I imagine BIG BUCKS (38) who ran third here will be skipping Cheltenham as he got taken off his feet when Kruguyrova quickened the pace and was staying on again at the finish. Clearly the Arkle will be too short for him. Equally clearly it would be a big ask to step him all the way up to three miles for the first time in the Sun Alliance Chase. I think he needs to go back up to two and a half miles next time and then be found a really soft race over three to get him used to the longer distances he'll surely be racing over next season. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him develop into a candidate for the King George next term.

French raider PEPSYROCK (7) has the build of a four mile chaser. This is not surprising. Many of the best chasers produced by his sire have stayed such trips while his dam stayed 2m 7f, which is as far as horses get to go below pattern class in France. Pepsyrock chased the early pace here but was totally floundering when Kruguyrova stepped on the gast over the five fences on the far side. Clearly his physique and pedigree are right and he needs much longer than two miles.

Pepsyrock won at the longest trip he ever attempted in France but he surely needs to switch to Britain or Ireland to have a chance of running over the kind of distance he needs.

Trainer Charlie Mann had previously warned that MOON OVER MIAMI tends to get over excited and run below form on his first run off a lay-off. That happened once more here following a six week break. Mann reported that the horse boiled over when the start was delayed. He ended up bleeding, and when a horse bleeds enough for it to be noticeable immediately after a race it invariably needs resting again. If he were mine therefore I'd be inclined to rough Moon Over Miami off for the season and perhaps bring him back in that charity race they have at Newbury in October to get him over his first run.

GROUP CAPTAIN DISPLAYS SERIOUS STAMINA

Previously I've knocked the chances of GROUP CAPTAIN (37) in the Ballymore Properties on the grounds of stamina. Now I have to reverse my position following the smart win scored by Group Captain at Exeter.

Stagehand took the field along at what looked to be an unsustainably strong early pace. In fact he reached what would normally have been the third flight (the second was omitted) 5.1 seconds sooner than in the other race run over the distance won by Oh Crick.

Every runner barring Group Captain began to tire due to the effects of the punishing gallop from the third last, taking 40.2 seconds or more to get from there to the finish line compared with 38 seconds flat in Oh Crick's race. Group Captain though just didn't stop running. He powered home in 38.7 seconds.

Okay this race was only two miles and a furlong. But it was run at a furious gallop on yielding ground and on a testing track. I now have no doubt that Group Captain won't fail at Cheltenham for lack of stamina.

Runner up WORKING TITLE (34) had run faster before and was a bit disappointing. I think the explanation is that he has a daisy-cutting stride and this makes him suited to faster ground. His trainer, Nicky Henderson, has suggested this too. Yes he won on soft ground last time according to my going allowances. But that was at Fakenham, the tightest track in the country over two miles. Here he was running over a furlong further around the stiff Exeter circuit and off a searching early pace. It's not surprising he didn't quite get home.

Having said that I don't now think Working Title should go to Cheltenham. He's still a bit immature and had a hard race here. I'd prefer to see him rested and kept for Aintree. His two wins to date have followed lengthy breaks and it may be he's best fresh.

TINO TINO A GOOD CHASING PROSPECT

TINO TINO (36) was one of the fastest three year old hurdlers in France last Spring. So I was disappointed with how poorly he ran on his first two UK starts at Sandown and Chepstow. He pulled much too hard for his own good in those races. It therefore made sense to let him bowl along in the lead for this next and most recent start at Warwick which he won in decent time.

Tino Tino set a slightly slow pace early on but was forced to gradually accelerate from a mile out as the runner up made a sustained effort to get to him. The effort failed but it ensured that both horses were rather tired up the homestraight. Tino Tino nonetheless kept on well for a wide margin win.

Right now Tino Tino is narrow and immature. But I can see what trainer David Pipe means when he says the horse will do well over fences. When he's filled out a bit he will look more like a chaser than a hurdler. His stride pattern is a bit odd. He shows plenty of knee action and seems a little uncoordinated. This too will no doubt alter as he strengthens up. But I suspect it does mean he'll always prefer a bit of cut in the ground.

So far Tino Tino has won both times he's run in fields of ten or less and lost all three times he hasn't. Again though when he grows and bulks up a bit I imagine he may get better at fighting for position in a big field.

CLOUDY LANE HAS BOTTOMLESS STAMINA

I've previously had doubts about whether CLOUDY LANE (38) really stays marathon distances based on his two poor performances at such trips. But following his win at Ayr last week I need to have a re-think. He exhibited near bottomless stamina to take the race.

Another Rum went along in a clear lead, going what looked to be a little too fast for the ground. So it proved. His stride shortened from about five out and he rounded the turn to approach the straight going really slowly. Soon after the other three runners barring Cloudy Lane all quite literally ground to a halt. They could not run an inch more and had to be pulled up. But Cloudy Lane himself just kept rolling and strolled away to an eight length win, looking as though he'd have been happy to go round again.

As I see it Cloudy Lane won't be beaten for lack of stamina in the Grand National. Some other explanation needs to be found for his two bad runs at marathon distances. I'm now wary of dismissing his chances of winning the big Aintree race on the grounds of insufficient experience or stamina. He's earned two big speed ratings from me in back to back races and is clearly a very progressive sort.

UNOWATIMEEN A FUTURE AINTREE WINNER?

When you see a big, tall horse jump impressively and win for a trainer called McCain it's hard not to think in terms of Aintree - especially when it's dam is a half sister to the winner of the Topham Trophy. Certainly I was thinking this after watching UNOWATIMEEN (37) win on his chasing debut for Donald McCain.

Strictly speaking, it wasn't really Unowatimeen's chasing debut, as he'd had two previous starts over fences in point to points. And the the horse certainly didn't jump like a novice. On four separate occasions he shortened up coming into a fence and popped over and on another he stood right off when he had to. Unlike the vast majority of novice chasers he has already learned how to put himself right at a jump. In fact here, despite setting a strong pace, he never touched a twig.

Unowatimeen set off in the lead and had three of his rivals' jockeys nudging their mounts along within quarter of a mile. His own jockey sat still all the way until after the second last as the other riders got progressively more busy. With more than half a mile to go Unowatimeen was still in splendid isolation up front, jumping like a stag and moving easily while the other runners were all under pressure.

After two out Unowatimeen's jockey started to move for the first time. But he simply had to row his mount along intermittently to keep him clear. And the pair passed the post well clear with Unowatimeen being eased down and still moving strongly.

At present I am not sure whether Unowatimeen will stay three miles. He showed a lot of speed over two and a half miles here. And his record so far shows three wins from three tries at 2m 6f or less and three losses out of three at longer trips when you include his point to point starts. If I had to bet on it right now I'd be inclined to oppose Unowatimeen at three miles, but only time will tell. Time will also tell whether I'm right about seeing the horse tried over 2m 6f at Aintree one day like his dam's half brother. On what I saw here I'd rather fancy him if he were.

OSCAR BAY FRANKS THE FORM OF FOREST PENNANT

OSCAR BAY (21) had earned a pattern class speed rating from me when chasing home the smart Forest Pennant at Chepstow. He didn't have the chance to do so when franking the form of that one with a win at Exeter. But this is simply because there was no pace in the race early.

As the tapes rose the runners simply stood there for a second or two. None of the jockeys wanted to go on. This sort of situation normally presages a slow early pace and can be exploited by a shrewd rider. Joe Tizzard was that rider this time, and he sent Oscar Bay into the lead at a moderate pace. Only from the last on the far side did he begin to wind the gallop up. And from the third last he asked his mount to accelerate smartly. At first Oscar Bay seemed reluctant to do so and Tizzard gave him a smack with the whip. Oscar Bay finally responded and fairly sprinted over the last three, taking just 36.2 seconds to get to the line, compared with 38 seconds in the race where they came home next fastest.

Oscar Bay showed his inexperience by being slow to respond to his jockey when asked to quicken three out and also by running sideways for a bit between that jump and the second last. But he was really moving at that point and inexperienced horses can do all sorts of odd things when they're asked to quicken up and race at serious speed. The impressive thing was that, as at Chepstow, he was able to sustain his finishing burst all the way to the line.

Oscar Bay is built and bred for running three miles over fences but clearly has a bit of speed.

This run ensures that Oscar Bay will almost certainly be assigned top weight in the E.B.F. Final at Sandown next month which is apparently his target. That race is often a rather weak affair for a Grade 3 due to its close proximity to the Cheltenham Festival. Therefore, despite his big weight, I'd say Oscar Bay looks the one to beat at this stage. The only fly in the ointment I can see is that his old conqueror Forest Pennant is also not entered for Cheltenham and the Sandown race is an obvious target for him too. I think that one would still prove a little too quick for him as he is a seriously good prospect.

GWANAKO WANTS LONGER

GWANAKO (33) earned a huge speed rating from me when winning a valuable handicap hurdle at Chepstow in October. So I've found it hard to understand why he's not shown the same form since. Now though, following his recent run at Kempton behind MISTER QUASIMODO (37) I think I know the answer. He wants longer a grater test of stamina.

Gwanako's first two losses following his big win were in slow run races. His next defeat came over two miles on a tight track.

The race Gwanako won at Chepstow was a strongly run affair on what I rated yielding ground. At Kempton it the pace was also pretty strong (though it did look to increase on the final circuit), but it looked like it was the extended two and a half miles that started to bring Gwanako's stamina into play in the closing stages. He kept staying on all the way up the straight and finished best of all to take third.

I f he were mine I'd be entering Gwanako for the Racing Post Plate and the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival. Both those races are handicaps, like the race Gwanako won at Chepstow. So he'll get the strong pace he needs. The extra distance will help too. Longer term I'd like to see him try three miles. But right now his official handicap rating looks set to make him a very attractive proposition for a win at the Cheltenham Festival over slightly shorter.

I'm not so enthused about the winner Mister Quasimodo. His trainer says he's a worrier who got put off by a blunder last time and concentrated better with a soft lead here. Clearly he's a smart horse in small fields at around two and a half miles, and is probably better over fences right-handed. But jockeys will now know how to beat him. All they'll have to do is take him on up front when they're on a halfway decent rival. This makes him look a dodgy betting proposition.

SPOOF MASTER STILL THE REAL THING ON A SLOW SURFACE

SPOOF MASTER (36) won the Brocklesby in pattern class time as a two year old on soft ground. He also ran second to a winner that clocked a Group class time on the only other occasion he encountered soft ground. Now he's shown that, like many mudlarks, the deep Fibresand surface is slow enough for him to produce his best form. He did so by running a short head second to the in form and useful BO MCGINTY (36).

Spoof Master was always moving well and looked set to win narrowly but comfortably as he edged away from his rivals inside the last furlong moving supremely well. Then it looks like he was caught napping by a surprise very late spurt from Bo McGinty. He was certainly still moving uch the best as they passed the line.

Bo McGinty went on to advertise the form by running a short head second to course record holder GODFREY STREET (36) the very next day. But he's now seven years of age and his official rating is high enough to force him into the better AW sprint handicaps that are hard to win. Spoof Master is only four and eligible for much lower grade contests.

Spoof Master is a classy looking horse who looks a good thing to win the next time he tackles Fibresand. After that his chance is clearly going to depend on the weather during the turf season.

Spoof Master had actually lost on the Fibresand when he tried the surface initially. But in that race there was a bigger field and his draw placed him in a position where the was receiving masses of kickback - something most horses don't respond well to the first time it happens. Here he was able to be kept widest of all where he got no kickback at all. For this reason it could be that Spoof Master will prove best in smaller fields on Fibresand or with low draws. But I suspect he'll be fine now that he's gotten used to the surface.

I know that Spoof Master has run below form whenever he's gone six furlongs before. But he's never tried the trip on a slow surface. From the way he was finishing here I can see him staying the longer trip and maybe even improving for it.

In any event Spoof Master looks a good thing to win a Fibresand sprint soon. And I'll have my eye on him to win a decent handicap on turf when the going is soft or heavy.

STRAW BEAR BEATEN BY THE GROUND

Anyone who took the odds on about STRAW BEAR (38) winning the big Grade 2 hurdle at Sandown last Saturday has good reason to be mightily aggrieved with the Clerk of the Course for posting a grossly misleading official going report.

The official going was soft which would have suited Straw Bear perfectly as he'd won nine of the previous ten times he'd run on what my going allowances say was yielding or softer ground at seven furlongs or more (I'm counting Fibresand as yielding) but lost all ten times he'd run on anything faster.

TIDAL BAY (25) surprised me by coming within a neck of winning over two miles at Doncaster last Saturday. The race was being used as an experiment by the connections of Tidal Bay to see if he could be effective at the minimum distance. And I thought the experiment was going to fail miserably.

The only time Tidal Bay had won in three tries at shorter trips was at Cheltenham, one of the stiffest tracks in the country, on what I rated heavy ground. And that was over two miles and a furlong. But at Doncaster he showed that he can produce his best form over two miles, even off a very slow early pace on a dead flat track and on fast ground.

There's little doubt that Tidal Bay would have won if he hadn't smashed the last fence. And he only hit it so hard because the race developed into a sprint from the fifth last. Tidal Bay set a slow pace to that point which they reached 8.7 seconds later than in the good handicap chase on the same card. From there they came home in 1 minute 16.8 seconds compared with the 1 minute 20.2 they took in the handicap chase. And they were by no means stopping in the handicap chase.

When you ask a chaser to jump at the speed they were going up the homestraight in Tidal Bay's race you're at serious risk of causing them to blunder, especially if they're a novice. You're leaving them very little time to judge the fences properly. This being so I'm not going to judge Tidal Bay harshly for his blunder. Off the near certain stronger early pace he'll encounter in the Arkle he'll have more time to measure his fences.

For me this race knocked on the head any idea of Tidal Bay going for the Sun Alliance Chase. In the last twenty years only one Sun Alliance Chase winner even tried to run two miles over fences before winning the big race. This was Brief Gale who got hopelessly outpaced and beaten 39 lengths. If Tidal Bay were truly a three miler I'm sure something similar would have happened here.

In the long run I expect that Tidal Bay will prove to be a two and a half mile specialist. But it's possible for such a horse to win the Arkle if the early pace is strong enough. And the race makes more sense than asking him to go three miles.

Let's not forget the winner, LESLINGTAYLOR (25) either. Unlike Tidal Bay Leslingtaylor is a two mile specialist. He's now won all five of his UK jump starts at two and a quarter miles or less on what I rate yielding or faster ground. And he earned a slightly bigger speed rating than Tidal Bay ever has from me when winning at Aintree in October. Leslingtaylor hammered Marodima by seven lengths fair and square in that race. That one went on to win in Grade 2 company.

I have a suspicion that Leslingtaylor may not quite last home up the hill at Cheltenham since all his jump. His only loss on fast ground at short trips came in a strongly run race at Fairyhouse. I'm thinking he may be best on dead flat tracks. If I'm right he'll be a very interesting candidate for Aintree if he gets his ground.

FOREST PENNANT NOT JUST A CHASING PROSPECT

FOREST PENNANT (37) clocked a pattern class time to win a hot two and a half mile novice hurdle at Chepstow. Sectional times show just how hot it was. In his race they got to the fifth hurdle exactly four seconds later than they did in the class 3 handicap hurdle on the same card. But they ended up making up 6.9 seconds from there to record a significantly faster final time.

Those of you used to clocking sectional times will know that only a good pattern class horse can make up nearly seven seconds on ordinary handicappers in the second half of a jumps race. So clearly Forest Pennant is more than just the chasing prospect most pundits seem to suppose. He's actually capable of being competitive in the best novice hurdles over two and a half miles.

What persuades me that Forest Pennant can win a good hurdle race is the sustained acceleration he produced here. The front running WIND INSTRUMENT (35) kicked on from the fourth last, quickening up noticeably. From there it was a flat out race to the line in which none of the first three home faltered. They fairly charged up the homestraight, covering the distance two and a half seconds quicker than they did in the handicap hurdle.

Forest Pennant ran around a bit when he was in front and really motoring. He also landed too steeply over the last and was on his nose briefly. But he never stopped sprinting and passed the post still full of running.

Forest Pennant also showed a serious turn of foot on his hurdling debut, where he would have won by several lengths but for running a good deal more green than he did this time. He just didn't seem to know what to do when his jockey asked him to go and win his race. He went left then right three times but was still able to get to within a neck of the winner in a sprint finish.

On his only other start over timber last time out Forest Pennant again ran green in the closing stages. But this time his jockey saw that he couldn't quite go with the first two so he let him come home in his own time to finish third. The first two are among the very best novice hurdlers, and I think Forest Pennant could have got very close to them if he'd been ridden harder and consented to run in a straight line. This big run validates that idea.

I'm not really convinced that Forest Pennant needs cut in the ground to produce his best. Horses that can quicken up like he can usually prefer the going faster.

I want to see Forest Pennant given a shot at a Graded novice hurdle soon. He's run steadily less green as he's gained experience and faster as well.

Forest Pennant has apparently already schooled over fences and is bred for the bigger jumps. His acceleration is a rare asset in a steeplechaser, so he could turn out to be very good indeed next term.

OSCAR BAY (36) got caught a bit flat-footed when the pace picked up sharply jumping the fourth last. But he soon got rolling again and gained ground in a long surge to the line over the last three furlongs. He looks nailed on to win a novice hurdle next time and is at least borderline pattern class. Like the winner he's bred for chasing and looks a good prospect for next term.

Third placed Wind Instrument is one of my favourite types of horses; a great big, long striding chasing type that's built for four miles. After watching him get totally outsprinted by Aigle D'Or last time I figured he would be swamped for speed by the winner. But he looked worse than he is against Aigle D'Or because he had to swerve to avoid a faller at the last and lost momentum. In addition his rider eased him on the run in when he saw he wasn't going to win.

Here Wind Instrument was undoubtedly done for toe by the winner. But he kept on strongly and finished close despite running a bit green from two out. He's a heavy topped horse who shows plenty of knee action and hits the ground hard, so I doubt that he'll ever show his best on fast ground. Long term though I can see him winning a big long distance handicap chase. Next season as a novice chaser he may have a bit of trouble as novice chases, especially in the first half of the season, tend to be slow run in the early stages - and that could easily make Wind Instrument look bad. Over three miles plus on soft ground though, whether it's over hurdles or fences this horse is surely going to prove useful.

NUMIDE'S ACCELERATION WILL MAKE HIM HARD TO BEAT

NUMIDE (28) gained some valuable experience of hurdling when scoring another facile win at Folkestone last week. He wasn't able to clock a good final time because they went a slow pace all the way to the third last jump. But he came home from there a full two seconds faster than the winner of the handicap hurdle and cantered up the very short run in 1.1 seconds faster, looking as though he could easily go a good deal faster. He finished fresh as a daisy.

Numide showed serious acceleration in Group 1 company on the flat and clearly hasn't lost any of his speed. His turn of foot is a potent weapon for a hurdler and will surely make him hard to beat.

On the flat Numide disliked being crowded in a race. But he hasn't shown any sign of that over hurdles so far. I'm now thinking that his previous traffic problems may have stemmed from the fact that he was racing in France where the horses tend to go really slow and race in a tight pack early on. Linngari, another Group 1 flat racer, seems to be similarly inclined. He hates traffic and has never won in France, even in small fields but has won nine times out of ten in smaller fields elsewhere.

In any event Numide has now twice weaved his way though big fields over hurdles and sprinted away from his rivals.

Numide certainly looks to have been a bargain buy at 100,000 pounds. You're not often able to buy a sound young horse that was competitive in Group 1 company on the flat for so little - especially when it's built and bred for jumping.

The fact that Numide is bred for jumping takes a bit of research. But if you know where to look you'll find that besides being a full brother to the brilliant racemare Reve D'Oscar, Numide has also had six full brothers which have raced so far. Four of the six have run over hurdles. A couple have only just started over timber but the other pair have shown form just as good as they did on the flat. Interestingly their best runs came over 2m 3f and 2m 4f respectively which seems to knock on the head any stamina doubts you might have about Numide.

Numide earned a string of speed ratings in the 37 to 39 range from me on the flat, and I'd be surprised if he's not able to run at least as fast over hurdles. That makes him look one of the big players for the Supreme Novices.

PIERROT LUNAIRE A GOOD PROSPECT

Although they were both smart flat racers it makes sense that War Chant and Playact, the sire and dam of PIERROT LUNAIRE (35) should produce a decent jumper. Both were good-bodied, strong sorts with a bit of size about them. It would have been easy to see either of them jump a hurdle or even a fence.

Pierrot Lunaire took after his parents by showing decent form on the flat. He ended up with an official mark of 85 after half a dozen good runs in French maidens. That puts him in the top 1% of juvenile hurdlers, most of whom were very slow when they ran on the flat.

Pierrot Lunaire very nearly made a winning debut over timber at Ludlow. In a somewhat oddly run race he went under by just half a length to the clearly useful filly DOUBLY GUEST (35) in a time that just sneaks over the borderline into Listed territory for a juvenile.

I rather suspect that Pierrot Lunaire will prove better than the winner in time. I say that partly because it seemed to me he was disadvantaged by the way the race was run. They went rather too fast for the first half mile or so, slowed up in the backstretch and then picked up the pace again approaching the homestraight. Pierrot Lunaire made his big move to take the lead just as Doubly Guest was quickening things up. It's hard for a horse to gain ground into an accelerating pace as he did. But he kept on strongly and powered away from the rest while dueling with Doubly Guest all the way to the line.

It looked to me that Pierrot Lunaire was just outrun by a filly with a slightly better turn of foot in a contest where she had the run of the race. I also got the strong impression that Pierrot Lunaire will stay at least two and a half miles and will jump a fence when he fills his currently somewhat narrow frame. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him improve a fair bit on this effort and prove capable of winning in Graded company.

I can't really say the same about Doubly Guest. She's a close-coupled, medium-sized sort who looks to have already done most of the growing she's going to do. She won this race well and fully deserves her place in the Fred Winter Juvenile at the Cheltenham Festival. But I don't think she'll be quite good enough to win that race and would be surprised to see her do very well when she has to race outside of juvenile company.

ROLL ALONG GETS INTERESTING FOR THE JEWSON

THE HAIRY LEMON (35) and ROLL ALONG (35) have both earned pattern class speed ratings from me in the past. They didn't quite do so when fighting out the finish of a handicap chase at Taunton last week. But I think that's because the leaders went off too fast and hurt the final time. They reached the eighth fence 5.4 seconds sooner than they did in the other chase over the same trip - and there was no way it was a slow pace in the other contest.

The Hairy Lemon was being scrubbed along more than half a mile from the finish, just as he was when scoring previously at Newbury. And, as was the case there, his stamina gradually began to kick in. He kept going remarkably strongly all the way up the straight in the way only a good horse can off such a strong pace. And when he was headed on the run in he rallied powerfully to get his head in front again on the line.

In his previous start The Hairy Lemon cannot have been suited to the slow early pace in the race won by Boomshakalaka at Kempton. But he won his only other completed start over fences when they went a good early gallop. Clearly stamina is his strong suit.

I think The Hairy Lemon will continue to run inconsistently over fences as long as he's kept to two and a half miles or less. He'll run well when the early pace is strong and get chopped for speed when it isn't. Over three miles though I think the pace wouldn't matter, so I'd like to see him given a shot at that sort of distance soon. Maybe he won't get home but that's certainly not the way it looks when he races.

Roll Along turned into the straight moving best of all and closed the gap on the winner in classy looking style to edge ahead halfway up the run in. He kept on really strongly but was just edged out of it as The Hairy Lemon rallied.

Watching Roll Along race here persuaded me that he's a classy horse with a serious turn of foot that would be better employed on faster ground - something his trainer has suggested in the past. He's only lost three times in his nine lifetime starts and would have won this if he'd been more fluent at the fourth last. I see him as a good prospect for the Jewson Novices' Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. He's also in the Sun Alliance Chase, but he looks much more of a two and a half mile specialist to me. I'd bet against him staying three miles with some confidence. He's just too pacey for that.

Roll Along is a rather excitable horse, and like many such horses tends to get himself fit easily and run best when fresh. His trainer is fully aware of this, so I imagine he won't be running him again before Cheltenham.

AIGLE D'OR TOO GREEN TO WIN AT CHELTENHAM

AIGLE D'OR (36) had no race at all on his hurdling debut at Lingfield in January because the field crawled in the early stages, turning the race into a sprint up the homestraight. The horse showed his lack of experience when winning what would normally be the key trial for the Ballymore Properties, except that this year it looked to be a sub-standard race. Certainly that idea is validated by my speed ratings.

Aigle D'Or looked set to cruise home as he approached the last full of running in the lead. But as he got closer his ears pricked up and he adopted that goofy look green horses do when they don't know what they're supposed to do. Sure enough he forgot to actually jump at the last and flattened it. Then he decided it might be an idea to ease himself up because perhaps the race was over. His jockey had to get very busy and regained the lead he'd lost briefly because Aigle D'Or had so much more left than his rivals. Against better opposition Aigle D'Or would have thrown this race away through greenness.

I concede that Aigle D'Or has a tremendous turn of foot. He came home over the last two three seconds faster than any other winner on his hurdling debut at Lingfield. I'll also allow the idea that he seems to have an awful lot more ability than he showed here - quite possibly enough to land him a Grade 1. But he simply looks too inexperienced to be seriously considered for the Balymore Properties at the Festival, and the statistics for that race back this idea up strongly.

Over the last twenty years there has been just a single winner of the Ballymore Properties that made its first start over jumps later than November. This was Galileo, the Polish Leger winner, who won back in 2002. You might think that Fundamentalist was another winner of the race that started late since his hurdling debut came in February. But he'd had seven point to point starts before that stretching back to the previous season.

As I see it, the bookies are crazy to make Aigle D'Or favourite for the Ballymore Properties. And any punter who takes the stingy prices their offering about the horse should seek psychiatric help.

FUNDAMENTALIST MIGHT JUST SCORE ANOTHER FESTIVAL WIN

FUNDAMENTALIST (39) is running consistently well this season and did so again when scoring at Wincanton. I think I've got it right in saying that Fundamentalist doesn't quite get three miles and can only handle as short as two miles on a very stiff track. His record in these circumstances is very consistent.

In this race Fundamentialist broke away from the rest in a pack of four hroses from the fifth last and was always going best thereafter. He had to be ridden out to beat the useful JERICHO (37) and ended up clocking a smart time.

I'm not sure I was right in suggesting before that Fundamentalist needs a small field to jump fences effectively. He's a big strong sort who showed no concern at being crowded at the jumps here. He may not be quite good enough for the Ryanair Chase. But if he's steered towards the Racing Post Plate (formerly the Mildmay Of Flete) he might just score a second win at the Cheltenham Festival.

Jericho seems to have acquired stamina with age as this was much his best run at around two and a half miles. I guess he won't be going to Cheltenham because for some reason he seems to have developed a preference for going right-handed. He's won six of the last twelve times he's run below pattern class on right-handed tracks but lost the last ten times he's run left-handed. He was going really well turning in here and pulled a long way clear of the rest as he tried to get to Fundamentalist. I like his chances of winning a similar race over about two and a half miles on a right-handed track soon.

PUR DE SIVOLA A SMART NOVICE CHASER ON RIGHT-HANDED TRACKS

PUR DE SIVOLA (37) once jumped to the right on a left-handed track and has so far failed to win or show anything like his best from running that way. But he's won three times out of four on right-handed courses, suffering his only defeat when second to the very smart Mahogany Blaze. Last week at Wincanton he once more advertised how good he is on a right-handed course with a runaway win in a novices' handicap chase.

Pur De Sivola had trouble going the kamikaze early pace set by the runner up Gentle John. But he settled into a better rhythm when that one slowed to a more sensible gallop in the backstraight and was then the only horse to keep up the gallop in the closing stages.

Most probably the strong early pace helped Pur De Sivola. It could be he'd not normally be this effective at the minimum distance. Qutie where he goes from here is hard to say. But my ratings suggest Pur De Sivola is capable of winning a decent prize on a right-handed course.

FLEET STREET (28) ran well below the form he showed on his chasing debut. He blundered badly at the ninth fence and lost his position before getting going again in the closing stages to get back up for a distant third.

It may be that Fleet Street is just chronically unsound and will only run well fresh these days. It could be that he prefers more galloping tracks. But I suspect he was simply taken along too fast over an inadequate trip and was stopped in his tracks by hitting a fence hard at a track that has claimed a very high percentage of fallers. I now think even more than I did after his last start that he's wanting longer than two miles.

ASHKAZAR HAS A USEFUL TURN OF FOOT

The start of a juvenile hurdle doesn't normally generate laughter from the grandstand. But that's because the start of most juvenile hurdles is promptly followed by the runners galloping towards the first hurdle. The one won by ASHKAZAR (36) at Sandown last Saturday did not follow this normal plot. It soon became apparent that all the jockeys were under strict instructions not to make the running at any cost. As a result the field stood for almost fifteen seconds until Timmy Murphy finally elected to take the bull by the horns and kick on. It turned out to be a good move because he was able to set a relatively modest pace and then use his mount's flat race speed to sprint home from two out. Until that point he was running five seconds behind the time Afsoun took to get from the first jump. But he finished so powerfully he was able to close that gap by three seconds in the two furlongs to the finish.

Clealry Ashkazar has a useful turn of foot and this makes him a tough opponent in tactical contests like this. Indeed I note with interest that he's now won all three times he's run below pattern class in single figure fields at a mile and a half or more.

It looks like Ashkazar is barely Listed class over hurdles, though his acceleration might well see him beat better rivals in a small field. Long term I rather like his chances of doing better as a novice chaser. He has the build for the bigger jumps and his turn of foot will make him hard to beat in novice chases, many of which are slow run.

THE TOTHER ONE PROBABLY NOT QUITE GOOD ENOUGH FOR CHELTENHAM

THE TOTHER ONE (33) won a rather strangely run Grade 3 staying handicap hurdle at Sandown. The early pace was really slow. So it's not surprising they were able to sprint home from the fourth last 1.75 seconds faster than the winner managed in the big Champion Hurdle trial earlier on the same card.

The Tother One seemed to positively thrive in the sprint to the line as he was clearly going much the best from the moment they picked up the pace. He had a bit of trouble picking up the leader until that one tired slightly approaching the last. But he kept running all the way to the line to stretch his unbeaten record to five starts.

The Tother One has yet to run a fast time, so I can only estimate the worth of this run using lines of form which suggest he'd have earned a rating of 37 in a true run race. That's not quite good enough for the Ballymore Properties. But next year, as a novice chaser, The Tother One who is built and bred for the bigger jumps, might well be a serious contender for the Sun Alliance Chase.

Several of The Tother One's rivals were clearly unsuited by the sprint to the line of fast ground. Most notable of these was THE VERY MAN (30) who was flat to the boards from the time the sprint began. He ran well in the circumstances and I still have my eye on him for a win in a big staying handicap hurdle at one of the Festivals. He's twice run fast enough this term to win such a race.

PAMAK D'AIRY A USEFUL CHASING PROSPECT

It looked like the handicapper had made a blooper in allowing PAMAK D'AIRY (-21) into an ordinary novices' handicap hurdle at Sandown. Over in France he had run a good second to subsequent Grade 3 winner Palibel D'Airy over hurdles and to subsequent Grade 1 third Polar Rochelais over fences. In doing so he'd earned pattern class speed ratings from me.

Sure enough Pamak D'Airy won even though the race was run at a farcically slow early pace (hence the minus speed rating). This led to a flat out sprint developing from the fourth last. Pamak D'Airy was always moving much the best as the sprint began and looked set to win easily between the last two. But, as is so often the case in these sprint finishes to jump races, he'd gone a bit too hard and began to tire in the last 100 yards. He still ended up winning pretty well though and is clearly a cut above this class.

Trainer Nicky Henderson says that Pamak D'Airy is a good looking sort. This is certainly true. In fact the horse is clearly built for chasing. I don't think he's quite good enough to be competitive if he takes up his entry in the Ballymore Properties at Cheltenham. But over fences I can see him winning pattern races.

LENNON GETS INTERESTING FOR RED RUM CHASE

Thanks to its rather unusual pear-shaped configuration Doncaster probably has the longest home turn of any racecourse on the planet. This can sometimes cause horses that normally prefer tighter tracks to run well there - simply because the runners spend so much time on the turn. This may explain why the tight track specialist LENNON (38) was able to go so close to winning the very valuable williamhill.co.uk handicap chase at the track last week. In fact he looked sure to win jumping the last but just got caught by HOWLE HILL (38).

Lennon has earned speed ratings as big as 40 from me in the past. But, like most of the top two mile chasers, he needs to be fresh to produce his best. So the logical thing now just has to be to lay him off until Aintree. At that meeting he could get into the valuable Red Rum Chase on a pretty lenient mark and would have a major chance of winning if the ground ends up fast enough for him. However if he runs at the Cheltenham Festival beforehand he won't be fresh for Aintree. Seeing that he dislikes stiff tracks like Aintree it should be an easy decision to sidestep the fixture and keep Lennon fresh for Aintree instead. But owners do love to have a runner at the Cheltenham Festival so you never know.

Howle Hill also dislikes stiff tracks like Cheltenham. So he shouldn't be a factor if he runs there. Like Lennon he's best fresh. But unlike Lennon, he's never run faster than he did at Doncaster so he's going to be a bit hard to place from now on.

MEDICINE PATH SHOULD HEAD STRAIGHT FOR THE LOCKINGE

MEDICINE PATH (39) clocked a seriously fast time when winning a good mile Listed race on Kempton's Polytrack. He was last until angling out for a run with two furlongs to go and then produced a tremendous burst to quickly catch and then run away from his rivals in the final furlong.

So far Medicine Path's three wins have come on the three occasions he's come into a race run over a mile or less on a fast surface off a lay-off. This being so I rather suspect that he is best fresh.

If he were mine I'd now be wrapping Medicine Path in cotton wool and bringing him back for the Lockinge Stakes in the Spring. That race is often a very weak Group 1, and Medicine Path would shape up as a top candidate if he got the fast ground he surely needs to use his terrific turn of foot.

After the Lockinge the Group 1 mile races get tougher, so I hope his connections do steer him straight to the Newbury race rather than waste his freshness on a lesser event.