LORD TRANCSEND RUNS TOP CLASS TIME

LORD TRANSCEND (41) ran away with the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock, earning his biggest speed rating so far in the process. He's now unbeaten in six runs on ground that I rated yielding or softer. This run rates as very good Grade 2 on my ratings, and I can see Lord Transcend proving good enough to beat Gold Cup class runners if he gets his ground. It's a pity he can't go on firm as that rules out the Gold Cup itself. But he will still qualify for relatively lenient marks in handicaps, so the logical thing to do is to shoot for one on soft ground before he's forced into the big conditions chases.

I am always extremely skeptical when a trainer says a horse dislikes both firm and soft ground and prefers something in-between. I've yet to see a case where this turned out to be true in the long run. Horses either prefer fast ground or soft, or they don't have a preference at all. And, despite what his trainer says, I'm now convinced INGLIS DREVER (42) likes it soft after he blasted home in Haydock's Champion Hurdle Trial.

Inglis Drever has won all four times he's run on what my going allowances indicate was yielding or softer ground since he stepped up to longer distances. And he's lost all seven times he's run on faster ground in class C or higher. Last Saturday he earned his biggest ever speed rating on the softest ground he has so far encountered.

Another thing my speed ratings indicate about Inglis Driver is that he has run faster since stepped down to two miles. I can see him winning something really big at the minimum hurdles distance, but I doubt that it will be the Champion Hurdle. The over-active drainage system at Cheltenham virtually guarantees firm ground for that race nowadays.

Runner-up MISTER MCGOLDRICK (38) ran remarkably well for a horse switching from chasing to hurdling. Indeed, he looked the winner for a long way. He earned the biggest speed rating I've awarded a horse this season when racing over fences last time and looks to have a major chance of winning Newbury's Game Spirit Chase if he gets the cut in the ground he needs next time.

MY WILL (38) won the Grade 2 Betfred Novices' Chase in decent time. But he's not quite up to Grade 1 class on the clock and his connections seem to recognize this. They may well sidestep Cheltenham with him and aim for a race at Aintree instead. This looks a logical move.

Runner-up ASHLEY BROOK (38) had run pattern class times when winning his two previous chases and did so again here. It could well be that the cut back to two miles didn't really suit him as he was outpaced at one point before staying on again to lose narrowly.

Ashley Brook keeps on running faster as he gains experience, and I can see him improving past the winner over longer trips when he gets the cut in the ground he needs. In fact, at two and a half miles, on yielding or softer ground, I'd be wary of betting any novice chaser against him next time.

ITSONLYME (36) bounced right back to his best to take a decent class C handicap chase at Doncaster. My read of his form is that he doesn't stay beyond three miles and dislikes jumping in a crowd. In his entire career he has only run in five chases at three miles or less in fields of eight or less when he's had a run within the last four months. He won all five times. He may be twelve years old now, but he equaled his best ever speed rating here and can surely be placed to win a few more races before he retires, particularly in the off season when the field sizes are smaller.

BRAVE SPIRIT (36) jumped well and ran a good time to take a decent little handicap chase at Taunton. His main asset is his jumping, so it's probably significant that his only defeat in his last six outings came when he ran second in a race in which five fences were omitted. How good Brave Spirit will eventually be I can't say. But I suspect Brave Spirit's trainer, Colin Tizzard, is right to suggest there is a big handicap chase in him.

There are plenty of smart sprinters on the AW. Nonetheless LITTLE RIDGE (36) looks worth following because he's fast and seems to need very specific circumstances to run his best. This means he ought to offer value when he can get them.

My read of Little Ridge is that he needs a dead flat, dead straight five furlongs. But for one photo finish loss when shifting his ground, he would have won all four times he's run in what I reckon are his optimum circumstances. He did so again when scoring at Southwell last week. Southwell is the only AW track to offer a straight five furlongs, so it looks likely his connections will be running him elsewhere in an effort to exploit his current form. I'd oppose him if they do but bet him to bounce back to form when he returns to the straight five furlongs at Southwell.

Te Quiero (37) ran faster than Little Ridge to run away with a hot class C handicap at Southwell. Unfortunately Southwell is now the only track left with the Fibresand surface Te Quiero seems to need. He's finished far back all seven times he's run on other AW surfaces and lost all 14 of his turf starts. If he were mine I'd ship Te Quiero to Germany and campaign him in the races run on the exceptionally slow AW surfaces they have at Neuss and Dortmund. But his target is the Lincoln Trial, now run on the new Polytrack at Wolverhampton, and I strongly suspect he'll find it too fast for his liking.

MISTER MCGOLDRICK IS CHAMPIONSHIP CLASS

MISTER MCGOLDRICK (44) equaled the biggest speed rating I've awarded so far this season when running away with the Castleford Chase at Wetherby. He's clearly a very smart chaser providing he's got some cut in the ground. Indeed, but for tipping up when clear on one occasion, he would have won the last six times he run in chases on good to soft or softer ground. I'm not sure whether he can jump fences well enough to beat decent rivals in fields bigger than ten. But that won't be much of a problem as he looks set to run in conditions races from now on where the fields are usually small.

On this run I would have to bet Mister McGoldrick against anything in short chases on soft ground. I see nothing in his speed ratings to indicate he can only run his best at Wetherby as many seem to suppose either. I can see him taking another big race at a good price sometime this season if he gets his ground.

KADARANN (39) ran as fast as he ever has to finish second. I've always felt that he's best in smaller fields (8 or less) over fences. His trainer has said that he's best on flat tracks too. This makes him look an interesting proposition to repeat his win in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury next month.

Armaturk (38) ran a bit below his best. His speed ratings in his last three runs have been 42, 40 and now 38. I'd say this suggests he's showing the effects of the four races he's already had this term and may now need a rest.

I'd predicted here that WELL CHIEF (?) would lose if he was turned out again as quickly as he was for this race. And it didn't surprise me that much that he fell four out. I have a theory that many of the best two mile chasers are best fresh because their muscles need a plentiful supply of glycogen to really ping the fences as is required in races of this type. The glycogen gets depleted by racing an it takes a rest to build up again. When it runs out in a race a fall is very likely.

Thankfully Well Chief exited the race early enough to be pretty sure that he'll be fresh enough to run back to his best next time. If he were mine I'd take him straight to the Cheltenham Festival to ensure that he'll be fresh enough on the big day.

Another smart two mile chaser is ONEWAY (40) who clocked a seriously fast time to win a hot class B handicap at Sandown. Oneway had a litany of physical problems before this season but has clearly recovered. In fact he's now won all four of his starts this term. I like his chances of taking the Victor Chandler Chase next time out.

Runner-up BLEU SUPERBE (39) looks a bit harder to place. My read of his form is that he's best in chases with nine runners or less on yielding or faster ground. It may also be that he's best fresh. I therefore suspect he'll run below form if he goes for the Victor Chandler Chase. But he'd be a very interesting proposition if he's then given a break until the Spring.

GOLDBROOK (38) improved massively on his chasing form to date to take a close third. He had won three of his four previous starts over hurdles on right-hand tracks at the minimum trip and finished fourth in the Imperial Cup in his losing effort. But he'd run way below that form in his four chases to date. It looks like he's now gotten the hang of the bigger jumps. On a right-handed track at two miles he'd be capable of taking a Graded novice chase or a normal class B handicap against experienced rivals.

MASTER REX (38) looked the winner for most of the race. But after traveling strongly throughout he began to flounder on meeting the rising ground. It looks like trainer Ben de Haan is right about Master Rex preferring a flat track as well as a right-handed one. The horse had run a bit quicker than this last time, and if he can avoid the steep uphill finishes at Sandown and Towcester he ought to win the next time he goes right-handed over the minimum trip against anything but the very top two milers.

TIKRAM (38) ran a huge race to finish a close fifth on ground that was too soft for him and over a distance that was too short. He stayed on strongly and looks a very interesting candidate for the longer race he goes for at Cheltenham next time.

COOL MONTY (37) won an ordinary class D chase at Wincanton in pattern class time. He hasn't got many miles on the clock for an eleven year old and looks very capable of winning something better. My read of his form is that he is best dominating a small field from the front. Escluding races at Kempton (which eats front runners alive according to the stats) his record in chases with eight runners or less when he's had a vaguely recent run (six weeks) shows five wins from five tries on right-handed tracks. If he turns out on a right-handed track again next time he'd be hard to beat - unless it's Kempton or Towcester (which is even tougher for front runners to win at according to the statistics).

TAMARINBLEU AND MARCEL NOT THAT FAST

Tamarinbleu (38) was an easy winner of the Ladbroke Hurdle on his first run of the season. But I can't recommend following him for two reasons. First, there are a whole bunch of hurdlers around that have run much faster. And second, he won equally impressively on his first run last term but then produced a string of awful runs.

It's a similar story with Marcel (27) who won for the ninth time in his last ten starts when taking the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle. The race wasn't truly run. However, the fact that Marcel previously kept hitting the same speed rating of 38 strongly suggests to me that he is just not a true Grade 1 horse and has been fortunate to be around in a freakishly weak first half of the season for novice hurdlers. I know it's getting a bit late in the season to be saying this, but I just can't believe there aren't a whole bunch of novice hurdlers that are going to prove faster than Marcel. We may not have seen them yet, but history and the clock says they have to be there somewhere.

MOAYED DOES IT AGAIN

On the All Weather MOAYED (37) won yet again, taking a conditions race from a whole slew of pattern-placed runners. He didn't run quite as fast as last time (probably because he met some traffic problems) but he demonstrated that he stays longer trips. Indeed, he may well be better over them. This being so, I'm a tad concerned that he is to be cut back to six furlongs next time - especially seeing that it will be only ten days after this outing. Moayed has now run six times in only a few days more than six weeks. Horses are not machines and he must need a rest sometime soon. Then again, he does keep on winning and it could be that the sprints he's been running in haven't taken much out of him, seeing that he clearly stays much longer trips. At this stage Moayed certainly looks the one they all have to beat in the Winter Derby. The ten furlongs on the Polytrack is undoubtedly the easiest in the country to get so I wouldn't have much concern that he'd get the distance of the big race.

Musidora second GLEN INNES (37) ran around a bit but still finished a close second to Moayed. She is clearly another good candidate for the Winter Derby, and if she can be found another conditions race beforehand she'd be tough to beat.

KAUTO STAR LOOKING GOOD FOR THE ARKLE

Well at least we can all stop worrying about what's going to win the Arkle. The time that KAUTO STAR (41) put up to beat older Grade 1 winner Foreman on his UK debut left no doubt that he's the fastest novice chaser we've seen so far this season or are likely to see.

Kauto Star showed steady improvement on the clock in France, improving his speed figure with virtually every race till he beat a smart field in fast time in a Grade 3 on his final start over there. He continued the improvement here and is still only four. How good he might end up being I don't know. But right now I have him only a point or two behind the very best two and two and a half mile chasers.

Long term trainer Paul Nicholls feels that he can get Kauto Star to go the Gold Cup distance. On pedigree that looks laughable. But I would have said the same about stablemate Azertyuiop staying the King George trip, so I'm wary of saying it's impossible. All I can say for now is that Kauto Star ought to win the Arkle.

I had thought FOREMAN (37) was a good thing because he'd won four of the previous five times he'd come into a race off a break and run fourth in fast time in the Champion Hurdle in his sole loss. But Kauto Star beat him easily by a wide margin.

It seems that Foreman is likely to re-oppose Kauto Star in the Arkle, and it's just possible he could improve enough to beat him (he's earned ratings as high as 40 from me in the past). You might be concerned that the cut back to two miles at the Festival might not be a good idea, but I've seen too many staying hurdlers prove fully effective at two miles over fences to see that as a big problem. Still, I'd prefer to see Foreman avoid Kauto Star to become a real betting proposition next time out. If he does I'd be wary about opposing him.

TANA RIVER (36) jumped very well for a novice chaser to take a Fontwell event in fast time. His trainer is convinced she made an error asking the horse to go three miles last time. If you look at the record of Tana River's dam it would appear that is correct. Her progeny have all run appallingly when they've gone three miles or more. Tana River has won the last four times he's run shorter distances and could be anything. He beat a good yardstick in Liverpool Echo comfortably here. All we can say right now is that he seems best around two and a half miles on soft ground and is at least Listed class. Just how good he is only the future will tell.

Silver Birch (37) won the Welsh National, taking his record on soft to five wins from six tries. But he keeps hitting speed figures around 37-38, and that means he's really not that fast. I think he's been a bit lucky to win two big chases this term given his level of ability. I'd be inclined to oppose him from now on.

BIG BONE (36) ran away with a novice hurdle at Taunton in Listed class time. He lost his only previous start over hurdles. But that was off a seven month lay-off. In addition he raced too free (as many horses do when fresh) and was attempting hurdles for the first time. Big Bone is built and bred to be a staying chaser, so I suspect the two and a half miles he ran over here is going to be a minimum for him. He may not be quite have the pace to go with ex-flat racers and French-breds in the Sun Alliance Hurdle. Long term though he could be a very useful chaser. Right now, he could easily set up a sequence of wins if he avoids the top novice hurdles.

On New Year's Day Westender (41) got his head in front for the first time since 2001. There's nothing wrong with him. It's just that he seems to need good ground and Cheltenham - a combination that can only be guaranteed at the Festival when he has to take on championship competition. Next time out it is planned to step him up to three miles at his favorite track for the Cleeve Hurdle. The extra distance looks a potential problem on pedigree, and it's unlikely he'll be lucky enough to get his ground again at this time of year. So on balance I can't recommend him as a horse to follow right now.

Runner-up BIG MOMENT (37) is a better horse on soft ground and did well to run so fast on a surface I rated only slightly slower than good. He has run solid Grade 2 times both on the flat and over hurdles. If he runs on soft or heavy ground next time I'd rate him a threat in any race at that level or lower.

MONKERHOSTIN (31) had earned the biggest speed rating I'd awarded all season last time. But his connections say there are no valuable chases from him till a bit later in the season. So he was cut back slightly in trip and switched back to hurdles here, presumably just to keep him ticking over till then. Most chasers run exactly like Monkerhostin did when they are transferred to the smaller jumps. I'd bet on him bouncing back to his best when put back over fences at 2m 5f plus.

On the AW we saw MOAYED (39) take what was undoubtedly the most hotly contested race of the winter in Group class time at Lingfield. Moayed produced a terrific burst of speed to score from some of the best AW performers in training. He's now going to have to go for conditions races, there being so few AW handicaps open to horses rated over 100 as he now is. I think the change may well suit him as he can meet traffic coming with his trademark late run from far back in the bigger fields that handicaps generally attract.

CHATEAU NICOLE (38) had run second in the other joint fastest AW race of the winter on his last run and was most unlucky to bump into another Group class rival here. Basically he ought to be unbeaten in three AW starts this winter. The plus side of his bad luck is that Chateau Nicole remains eligible for handicaps, and he ought to take one next time.

WHAT-A-DANCER (37) ran a big race to finish a close third and came out to win the very next day. If he hadn't run into such smart performers here he would now have won the last four times he's run on the AW following a recent race. The race he won the next day was a claimer and he was claimed for 20,000 pounds by Nick Littmoden. Although What-A-Dancer is now eight I suspect that will turn out to be a shrewd claim.

CRESKELD (37) equaled his best ever speed rating to take a Southwell handicap. He's a smart horse on a stiff track with cut in the ground on turf. On the AW he's just as good on Fibresand. But now that Wolverhampton has switched to Polytrack it's debatable whether he'll be able to run as well in the valuable Lincoln Trial there as he has when placing in the last two running's. It's possible, but he looks more of a betting proposition to follow up this win back at Southwell.

Runner-up RAFFERTY (36) looks somewhat easier to place. My read of his form is that he's at his best early in the year at 7-8f around a turn. There are plenty of races for him, so I'd bet on him winning very soon.