AMORIST MUST BE FOLLOWED

AMORIST (39) showed sensational improvement for the step up to ten furlongs when winning on the Polytrack at Lingfield. The race he won was only a class 5 contest but the time he ran was Group 3 by my estimates. Indeed he ran one of the fastest ever ten furlongs on the Polytrack.

Any horse that can beat 2m 4 seconds for ten furlongs on the Polytrack is by definition a pattern class horse. Amorist ran half a second under that benchmark time so looks set to win a whole bunch of races as the official handicap rating he ran off here understates his real ability by about 40 pounds according to my estimates. It looks likely that he'll translate this form to the flat, at least on firm ground, as most Polytrack winners do. So I'd say Amorist is a likely big handicap winner sometime in the coming months.

TIGHTEN YOUR BELT SHOULDN'T BE 50-1

OLNEY LAD (38) won a three mile novice chase at Wetherby in a time that marks him out as one of the better first season chasers. The race was run in bottomless ground and it may well be that is what he needs to produce his best - though the evidence is far from conclusive yet. It may also be that Olney lad prefers galloping tracks. Again though, he hasn't run enough to be sure of that. All I can say for sure is that he's capable of winning a Graded novice chase on this showing and looks a great prospect.

Runner-up TIGHTEN YOUR BELT (38) was seventh in the 2004 Sun Alliance Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and third in the big bumper at the Aintree Festival the year before that. No doubt he'll be heading towards both Festivals again this year, and he deserves to on this evidence. I think the bookies are wrong in marking him up as a 50-1 shot for the Sun Alliance Chase. He's not far off the best novice chasers on this run and could easily improve for the run and faster ground.

PRINCE OF SLANE SHOULD WIN AGAIN

PRINCE OF SLANE (36) won the North Yorkshire Grand National at Catterick in a time that suggests he's still under-rated by his official handicap mark. His record at long trips on fast ground is pretty much spotless. So with Spring coming I'd say there's a good chance Prince Of Slane will be winning another decent chase soon. He should be be getting his ground and there are plenty of long distance chases to shoot for.

PASSENGER OMAR A USEFUL STAYING HURDLER

PASSENGER OMAR (37) beat a decent field to win for the third time in a row at Warwick. He's clearly a useful staying hurdler and capable of winning much better races. The thing is he does have breathing problems according to his trainer. This being so I wouldn't want to bet him on an undulating track such as Cheltenham as horses with breathing problems normally prefer the more even demands on their breathing provided by a flat track like Warwick.

Runner-up JIVER (37) bounced back to form for the switch back to hurdles. It shouldn't be that hard to find him a race soon as he's eligible for races well below his true class judged by my ratings.

STAR DE MOHAISON IMPROVES FOR LONGER TRIP

STAR DE MOHAISON (37) is a bother to Billy De Bessac who finished third in the Grade 1 Gran Steeplechase di Milano over three miles and a furlong. Like his brother, Star De Mohaison seems to be improving as he's stepped up in trip. His win at Fontwell over 2m 6f, the longest rip he's tried yet, produced his biggest speed rating so far. He won nicely and might easily improve enough over the extra two furlongs to have a good chance of at least placing in the Sun Alliance Chase for which he seems over-priced with Paddy power at 50-1.

GREEN TANGO STILL LOOKING GOOD

GREEN TANGO (38) ran another pattern class time to take a good novice chase at Southwell's big jumps meeting. He's now earned the same speed rating from me on his last two runs, so this is probably as good as he is - and that's probably not quite good enough to take the Arkle. Still, he keeps on progressing and did at least prove here that he does handle tight turns which had looked doubtful on his previous form. So it could well be he's simply a much better horse over fences and will also handle undulating tracks like Cheltenham which you could argue against on his hurdles form.

Runner-up FEEL THE PRIDE (37) is very consistent - as long as she's racing on a dead flat track over less than two and a quarter miles as she was here. She'd won ten times out of twelve in these circumstances before this race and would have won again here had she not come up against an unusually smart rival for the class. She looks relatively easy to place for another win soon.

ALMAYDAN IMPROVES

I don't like it when a horse shows improvement that can't be explained by the form book. But I have to note that ALMAYDAN (38) did just that when taking the Mansion House Chase run this year at Southwell.

Trainer Richard Lee attributed Almaydan's better showing to a spell of hunting and first time blinkers. These are things that may only have a temporary effect, so I want to see Almaydan run this well again before I'll buy into him more fully. Still, this was a decent run and it suggests Almaydan needs to be considered for any two mile chase he contests in the immeidate future.

THIS WAS A VERY SPECIAL RACE

SONEVAFUSHI (40) ran an amazing time to win at Newbury two runs back. And he did it again when strolling home at Taunton last week. The race he won was freakishly competitive for the class and I predict we'll see several winners come out of it in the near future.

My read of Sonevafushi is that he's a 'need to lead' sort that is almost unstoppable when he gets the lead before halfway and is running in a race with eleven runners or less on a course without an uphill finish and when the ground isn't heavy. He's now won nine times out of eleven in these circumstances. Last time out I actually awarded him a speed rating of 42. That's fast enough to make Sonevafushi competitive against any three mile chaser in training.

It's a shame the Racing Post Chase isn't being run at Kempton this year as it often features a field small enough for a horse like Sonevafushi to dominate from the front. But it's at Sandown, and I don't fancy his chances of getting home up that final hill. Still I'm sure his shrewd trainer will find a valuable chase of some sort for him soon.

Runner-up BRAVE SPIRIT (38) trailed the winner by six lengths but is still worth following according to my speed ratings. My read of his form is that he's best in small fields (ten or less) on yielding or softer ground. Prior to this defeat he'd won six of the seven races he'd contested on ground I rated yielding or softer in fields of ten or less. His sole loss was a very unlucky short head defeat in a valuable Listed Chase. He too ought to win something decent soon.

Third placed COWBOYBOOTS (38) also looks very interesting. He lost his last run, but that was his first chase in nearly a year and he almost certainly needed the outing. He'd won the two previous times he'd completed the course over three and a quarter miles or more and looks a useful staying chaser. Next time he runs in a long distance chase I'd be wary of opposing him.

Similar comments apply to the fourth placed finisher YARDBIRD (37). Yardbird had won all three times he'd run 2m 6f or more before this race and proved he's fast enough to win a big staying handicap chase with his run here.

KOQUELICOT (37) pulled well clear of the rest to record a smart time. It looks like he's improved a bit for the step up to marathon distances. He too ought to win something soon.

EBONY LIGHT'S WIN WAS LEGIT

Some people will tell you that speed ratings are simply a mathematical expression of a person's opinion. I maintain that they result from a mathematical equation based purely on probabilities. Those who take the former view will no doubt find a way to massage down the extraordinary speed figure that the facts say EBONY LIGHT (43) should be awarded for his win in the Peter Marsh Chase. Personally I'm going to leave his rating untouched.

I spent a long time re-checking my standard times and came away certain that Ebony Light was entitled to a speed rating nine points better than Barton Nic earned in the two mile chase later on the card. This indicates Ebony Light should indeed get the big speed rating his defeat of Kingscliff suggests.

All I can suggest is that Ebony Light has, for whatever reason, improved dramatically this season. After all, it's by no means unreasonable to assume that he would have won last time out if he'd stood up -seeing that he was going strongly at the time he fell. That would mean he'd have won three times in a row, and four of the five times he's run three miles or more this season.

It's hardly surprising that trainer Ginger McCain now plans to run Ebony Light in the race he's so closely associated with, the Grand National. The horse has already jumped round Aintree and my ratings say his chances should be taken very seriously indeed.

My ratings suggest that KINGSCLIFF (40) did not run below form to take second. He ran only a point slower than he had when winning the Betfair Chase over course and distance. I still maintain he's just not quick enough for the Gold Cup. But when he comes into a race fresh he's still a very useful chaser.

DUNBRODY MILLAR AHEAD OF THE HANDICAPPER

ALMOST BROKE (37) and DUNBRODY MILLAR (37) pulled a distance clear of their pursuers when fighting out a tight finish for the Connaught Cup at Wincanton. Both are clearly decent staying chasers and look worth following - especially Dunbrody Millar.

If he hadn't tipped up when looking a certain winner at Doncaster and a couple of photo finishes had gone the other way Dunbrody Millar would now be unbeaten in five tries at three and a quarter miles plus. He's already won the valuable Sussex National but remains on a remarkably low official rating of 115.

NOUS VOILA ONE OF THE TOP NOVICES

NOUS VOILA (39) earned one of the biggest speed ratings I've given a novice hurdler so far this season when taking the Grade 2 Rossington Main Novice Hurdle at Haydock by a wide margin. He's now won three of the four races he's contested over timber with the sole loss being that mysteriously bad run at Cheltenham.

Time will tell whether Nous Voila needs faster ground than he got at Cheltenham or whether he simply dislikes the track. It's also possible that he needs to be fresh. At this stage all I can say is he's fast enough to merit consideration in any novice event and in the Totesport Trophy.

BRAVO MAESTRO SHOULD WIN AGAIN

BRAVO MAESTRO (39) looked a very promising horse a couple of seasons ago. And he looks a very promising horse again following a terrific win in fast time on his first start for new connections at Wolverhampton.

This was only a class 4 race, but the speed rating I awarded Bravo Maestro indicates he could easily develop into a candidate for the Winter Derby. Between now and that race he ought to be able to win several more times as he appears ludicrously well handicapped.

Runner-up ATLANTIC QUEST (37) is seven years of age but ran as fast as ever here. He seems to go well at Wolverhampton and I'd bet him if he returns to the track soon.

DETROIT CITY LOOKING GOOD FOR THE TRIUMPH

I refused to believe that ROYALS DARLING (38) could get beat at Newbury last week. But DETROIT CITY (39) put him away by a length and a half, earning an enormous speed rating for a juvenile hurdler.

My confidence in Royals Darling was understandable. On his hurdling debut Royals Darling won by no less that 41 lengths at Bad Harzburg. The time he recorded was seriously good for a juvenile, the fastest run over the course and distance in over five years (in a total of over 40 races) and less than two seconds off the track record.

The form of that race was certainly franked when the distant runner up was sent over to Italy a short while later to take a hurdle at Merano on his next outing.

Royals Darling himself was sent to France after his big German win where he finished fourth to the juvenile hurdling sensation Tidal Fury. At first glance you might think he didn't do so well as he got beat 14 lengths and there were only six runners. But when you look closer his performance was clearly very good.

Tidal Fury actually broke the course record for two and a quarter miles at Auteuil that day - quite some feat for a juvenile hurdler. He's been unbeaten in two starts since, including a Grade 1.

The horse that finished second to Tidal Fury won his next completed start and then finished second in a Grade 2.

The third won a Listed race next time out and then finished third to Tidal Fury again but in a Grade 1 this time.

The fifth won three of his next four outings, including Listed and Grade 2 contests.

Even the sixth and last placed horse has managed to run a close fourth in a Listed contest in a big field to subsequent UK Grade 1 winner Blue Shark.

To finish bang in the middle of such an elite group of juvenile hurdlers in a race run in sensationally fast time says a lot of good things about the ability of Royals Darling.

On his only subsequent outing Royals Darling got beat less than two lengths into third place in a three runner Listed race run at a crawl, which cannot have suited him - seeing that he's a very big horse. Still it's worth noting that the winner has gone on to run third in a Grade 1 and the second subsequently got to within two and a half lengths of Tidal Fury when running second to him in a Grade 2.

Royals Darling is now with Nicky Henderson who is clearly pleased with the horse judged by his comments in a recent Racing Post interview where he had this to say; "He's 16.3hh and has a huge amount of scope. He'll be an ideal candidate for those four-year-old chases next year, but hopefully he'd have won a stack of hurdle races before then."

To defeat a horse of such obvious potential in such fast time marks Detroit City out as the best Triumph candidate we've seen this season. I rated his run here as fast as that brilliant win of Tidal Fury in France.

Royals Darling is obviously very smart too - and given his build, maybe he'll turn this form around with Cheltenham's uphill finish to help him.

SONEVAFUSHI BRILLIANT IN SMALL FIELDS

SONEVAFUSHI (42) ran away with a handicap chase in such fast time at Newbury that it set me questioning the speed rating I'd awarded him. But after checking every likely interpretation of the times run on the card I was forced to conclude Sonevafushi really had run fast enough to trouble even the very best three mile chasers.

Whenever I award a speed rating this big to a horse that previously never ran that fast I always try and find out what prompted the fast performance. In this case, after much study, I finally think I've uncovered the key to Sonevafushi. It seems to me that he is what American horseplayers call a 'need to lead' sort. If he doesn't get the lead before halfway I reckon he usually sulks and won't run his race. And even when he does get a soft lead he'll give it up if he's confronted with very testing conditions - either an uphill finish or heavy ground.

For most horses that 'need to lead' a smallish field is usually a requirement too. When there are a dozen runners or more they usually generate too strong an early pace for these reluctant heroes to last home.

With all this in mind I went through Sonevafushi's jump record and sought out races where there were eleven runners or less, where there was no uphill finish and the ground wasn't heavy according to my going allowances -and where Sonevafushi had managed to get the lead before halfway. I found five such races. Sonevafushi won four of them. In the other one he'd gone off way too fast and got caught late. In his 29 other jumps starts he'd won only twice.

I concede my theory is a bit complicated, so I figured it needed confirmation. Therefore, with the help of Paris Turf commentaries and my French going allowances I applied the same 'need to lead' theory to Sonevafushi's French flat form. I found there were again five races where he got the lead before half way in contests where there wasn't an uphill finish or heavy ground and where there were eleven runners or less. And again he'd won four of the five races. In his sole loss he'd also gone off very fast in the lead and tired late. In his seven other flat starts he failed to win.

Given these findings, it would seem that I'm probably right in saying Sonevafushi is best when he's loose on the lead. So if you see him running in a chase with eleven runners or less on a course without an uphill finish and when the ground isn't heavy think twice about opposing him - especially if there aren't many other front runners in the line up.

Runner-up BEE AN BEE (36) has now earned big speed ratings from me at Newbury on four occasions. He's never run anything like as fast at any other course. He's been unlucky to come up against smart performers and run second at the track on three occasions and deserves another success at what is obviously his favourite venue.

CORNISH SETT A BETTER ARKLE CANDIDATE THAN JUSTIFIED

Two of the top Arkle candidates met at Newbury last week when JUSTIFIED (40) and CORNISH SETT (39) clashed. Justified won the race. But he had to be pushed right out to get the better of Cornish Sett. And on the likely faster ground at Cheltenham I'd bet on Cornish Sett getting his revenge.

Cornish Sett has previously run a bit faster than Justified ran here, and he did so on much faster ground. He ran a clunker last time out on the softest ground he's ever encountered and was a little below his best here on going I rated as soft.. A lot of the chasers on both his sire and dam's side preferred fast ground. He himself did win on soft at Chepstow once. But that was in a terrible race where the second and third turned out to be basically selling class.

In addition Cornish Sett has always had stamina problems. At this stage he doesn't seem to get two and a half miles, and it may well be that in the desperate ground he raced on last time he didn't even get two.

Look at Cornish Sett's form before his next to last outing and he looks very good indeed. In fact, if he hadn't twice wandered in the closing stages and lost narrowly Cornish Sett would have won all six times he'd previously run less than two and a half miles. I awarded him a Grade 1 speed rating for running a very close and unlucky second in what I rated the fastest novice chase of the season four runs back. I say he's a better prospect for the Arkle than Justified. Though I concede Justified is very smart.

TANIKOS CAN WIN A BIG CHASE

TANIKOS (41) ran a really fast time to take the Edward Courage Cup at Warwick. He's clearly a very smart chaser over trips short of two and a half miles. But he's never been that good a jumper and I strongly suspect he's not at his best over chase tracks which claim a high percentage of fallers - i.e. Aintree, Ayr, Doncaster, Lingfield, Musselburgh and Wincanton. Toss out chases at those tracks from his record and those over two and a half miles plus and he's won three of his last four completed starts in favourable conditions. The loss was a decent sixth in a big chase at Newbury on ground that was almost certainly a bit fast for him.

Quite where Tanikos goes from here is hard to say. There really aren't that many chases for a two mile chaser that has trouble jumping big fences and handling firm ground. The only logical target I can think of is the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham Festival - though I concede the jury is still out on whether he can handle anything but a dead flat track. In any event, I bet Nicky Henderson will figure out some sort of a target for the horse who is so fast he's surely got to win something big this season.

Runner-up KALCA MOME (40) is just as hard to place as the winner as he appears to need a dead flat track and less than two and a half miles. In addition, he doesn't seem to like jumping fences in a crowd (nine runners plus). He's won eight of his last eleven runs where he's met what I see as his favoured circumstances. And it would be nine out of eleven if he hadn't bumped into such a smart winner here.

Smart as the first two are it may well be that the fairly distant third MADISON DU BERLAIS (36) wins before they do. I've mentioned him before as a fast, well handicapped horse. He certainly appears a good deal more versatile than the first two and ought to take a race soon.

PALUA IS GOOD WHEN IT'S GOOD

PALUA (39) is one of those consistently inconsistent horses that I love. He's got an obvious pattern to his form that seems to dictate how well he runs. But because he loses so often you get a nice price when things fall right for him.

It seems to me that Palua's big problem is lack of stamina. He needs a dead flat track and good or faster ground to last even the minimum national hunt distance. However, when he gets these conditions he's smart, as he showed recently at Ludlow when winning for the third time in four tries on ground I rated good or faster ground over jumps on a flat track at two miles.

Quite when Palua will encounter his favoured circumstances again is hard to say. Basically it depends on the weather. But he ought to offer value when he does.

JACKS CRAIC (38) ran a big race for a novice chaser to run Palua close. I don't know quite why he improved so much here. It could be the faster ground. In any event he looks a sure-fire winner in the near future whether he sticks to handicaps or goes back against novices.

NINE DE SIVOLA IS A SMART STAYER

NINE DE SIVOLA (38) won the Pertemps Hurdle qualifier at Warwick in such fast time that he now looks interesting for the Final at the Cheltenham Festival. He probably would have won all five times he's run beyond two and a half miles but for rapping a hurdle and temporarily laming himself at Sedgefield. He could easily be good enough to score at the Festival off this run.

RATHOWEN STAYS REALLY WELL

RATHOWEN (36) ran a very fast time for the class when winning a three mile novice hurdle at Newcastle. He clearly stays really well and is a much better horse now he's racing at longer trips. Last time out, on his first try at three miles, he finished second to ACCORDING TO JOHN. The times was nothing special but he did pull well clear of the third. So I'd say According To John, who is unbeaten in two starts begins to look rather interesting.

Rathowen is bred for chasing, but in the meantime I'd say there are some decent staying hurdles to be won with him - probably handicaps if his official rating remains as low as I think it will.

EUROTREK PROBABLY NEEDS A BREAK NOW

After EUROTREK (39) had won the totesport Classic Chase by a street in fast time trained Paul Nicholls said "he is the sort of horse you wouldn’t want to run too often". I'd say he's right. Eurotrek has had a litany of physical troubles, including bleeding and a hear problem. I very much doubt that he'd be able to take another race soon. Fragile horses like him rarely can - especially when they've just run two very fast races in a row as he has.

Nicholls suggested after Eurotrek's big win that if they do go for the National they might well take the horse straight there without another run. That seems like the right move. Then again it might be best to wait till 2007 before tackling Aintree as the stats show horses with as little chasing experience as Eurotrek has rarely do well in the big race.

DEMPSEY IS ONE OF THE TOP TWO MILE CHASERS

DEMPSEY (41) ran fast enough to merit consideration against the best two mile chasers when winning a red hot handicap at Sandown.

It does seem a tad curious that Dempsey is now to be aimed at the Victor Chandler Chase at Cheltenham. After all, Cheltenham is left-handed, and Dempsey's trainer, Mark Pitman, has said that the horse is better going right.

So far Dempsey has been beaten 25 lengths or more all three times he's run on left-handed tracks. On right-handed tracks his record is much better. He's won seven of his nine completed starts at two and a quarter miles or less. And one of his losses was a close second to Limerick Boy who I rate top class.

You could argue that it's the stiffness of the fences rather than the way a course turns that dictates Dempsey's form. I say this because his worst three runs over fences have come on the tracks that have claimed the highest percentage of fallers over the last decade (Wincanton (twice) and Aintree). This being so, seeing that Cheltenham's fences aren't that hard these days, I think I'd be going for the Victor Chandler with Dempsey myself if I owned the horse. The fact that Dempsey has never been reported to have jumped right, as most horses that prefer going right-handed do, adds weight to this position. Still, on balance, I want to see clear evidence that Dempsey can reproduce this run on a left-handed track. I also want to see him jump stiff fences effectively before I'd bet him at other likely right-handed venues such as Kempton, Wincanton or Punchestown.

TIKRAM (41) ran his usual good race to run Dempsey close, despite the fact that the going was a bit soft and the trip a bit short for him. He's still significantly under-rated by his official handicap mark if my ratings are anything to go by. So I'd expect to see him continue to campaign in good handicaps like this and win one soon.

TYSOU (39) ran yet another in a long string of good races to finish third. I'm beginning to wonder if he's not just shy of the class needed to win the class 1 and 2 races that he normally tackles. After all he's now won six of his nine starts in class 3 or lower but the only win he's achieved in 22 tries in class 1 and 2 came in a six runner hurdle race run at a crawl. The trouble is his official rating pretty much precludes a drop down to class 3 and Tysou's consistency means his rating's not going to get much lower anytime soon.

LADALKO MUST WIN NEXT TIME

Just how good Is LADALKO (39)? I'm crediting him with the three length margin he held when tipping up two out at Sandown last week. But he was going so strongly at the time he might easily have ended up winning by a bigger margin and running even faster.

This would have been Ladalko's second win from two tries at three miles. Clearly he's a better horse at longer trips. This might seem unusual seeing that Ladalko is French-bred and most French-breds are best at 2m 5f or less (the longest distance normally run in France outside of a few big races). However Ladalko's sire and dam both displayed unusual stamina for Gallic jumpers. His sire, Kadalko, scored his biggest win over three miles while his dam's best performance came at the longest trip she ever tried (2m 6f). Most of Kadalko's progeny get three miles and the only other jumper Ladalko's dam has produced to date has already run third in Listed company over 2m 5f as a four year old.

I recognize that Ladalko's trainer, Paul Nicholls, has expressed concerns about the horse's jumping in the past and that he did fall here. But he would have own in such a fast time that I'm happy to believe that he's now learned to jump well enough to show his best form. Indeed it could well be that this fall was just one of those things and that he was simply stretched into making mistakes by being run over an inadequate distance in his previous chase outings.

In any event, my speed ratings say that Ladalko's official handicap mark understates his ability by about two stone. This being so I'd be rather confident the horse will win next time out. Off this run I'd say he'd be a threat to just about any chaser over three miles.

Eventual winner GRAPHIC APPROACH (38) is still very lightly raced and might well prove good enough to win the Racing Post Chase or Vodafone Gold Cup which are now his potential targets. He just hasn't run enough to establish any pattern to his form. All I can say for now is that he's fast enough to win a Grade 3 chase.

Third placed SHALAKO (37) was running on ground that was probably a bit too soft for him. But he once again showed improved form over a longer trip. His only previous try at three miles came last time out when he ran five lengths second to Ladalko, and that form is now starting to look rather good. So if he's kept to three miles and enounters good or faster going soon I'd bet on Shalako winning. He's exceptionally well handicapped at present and eligible for races well below his true class.

DESERT AIR HAS GREAT CHANCE IN IMPERIAL CUP

My speed ratings don't take account of weight. As a result, I have to concede that occasionally I come up with numbers that are a little bit bigger than they should be. 90% of the time, oddly enough, this happens with lowly weighted horses in very strongly run handicap hurdles and chases over two miles. This being so you may want to take the ratings I've come up with for DESERT AIR (43) and NATHOS (42) with a pinch of salt. The pair ran 1-2 off light weights in the furiously run Ladbroke Handicap Hurdle over two miles at Sandown last week.

Actually even if you knock several points off the speed ratings Desert Air and Nathos ran you still come up with very big numbers. I strongly suspect that they ran so fast because they really are very fast - at least in the circumstances they met at Sandown.

It seems to me that Desert Air is a seriously fast hurdler on a right-handed track when he is ridden more prominently than normal. He's now won on three of the four occasions that he's not been dropped out in the early stages on a right hand track. He spoiled his chances by jumping consistently to the right when running third in his sole defeat. The obvious target for him now just has to be the Imperial Cup over this same course and distance in March.

Nathos clearly benefited from the strong pace as he stays so well. The cut in the ground must have helped him too as nine of his eleven wins have come on yielding or softer. He looks a very interesting candidate for another big handicap hurdle run on soft ground, probably over a longer trip.

NOLAND STILL HAS A LOT TO PROVE

Noland (24) won a slowly run renewal of the Tolworth Hurdle and is clearly a decent sort. But I wonder whether the race really deserved its Grade 1 tag this year. Nothing in the whole contest had ever run a decent time over hurdles before and that didn't change with the pace being so slow.

I need to see Noland do a good deal more than this to take his chances of winning the Supreme Novices' seriously.

TOWN CRIER JUST AS FAST OVER HURDLES

TOWN CRIER (40) ran fast enough over fences in November to earn a write up from he here. Now he's gone and run just as fast over hurdles when running away with a strongly contest handicap at Wetherby.

Town Crier apparently only just lasts the minimum distance and his trainer expressed concerns about running him at Cheltenham next time for the Victor Chandler Chase as he was worried about him getting home up the hill. The form book says he's right to be concerned as Town Crier suffered a wide margin loss in his only previous run at Cheltenham. He also got beat a long way the two times he ran at Carlisle, the only other track with a really steep final climb that he's tried. Logically therefore we should expect to see Town Crier run a clunker if he turns out for the Victor Chandler Chase but bounce back to from when he goes two miles on an easier course after that. Over hurdles or fences I'd think twice about opposing Town Crier at two miles anywhere but on a stiff track.

GREEN TANGO DOES THE QUICKSTEP

GREEN TANGO (38) ran fast enough to score in Graded company when beating the smart French import DON'T BE SHY (37) in what looked like a hot novice chase at Hereford.

It's beginning to look like Green Tango is best on relatively flat, galloping courses as he's now won six of his ten starts on such tracks and blanked in six tries on tracks with undulations or tight turns.

On his previous start Green Tango had chased home Cornish Sett, one of the top novice chasers. This run confirmed that Cornish Sett is quite some horse, given the good ground he now appears to need. Green Tango is no slouch either, and though he may not be suited to either Cheltenham or Aintree (where he's run clunkers before) he'll surely take something decent before the season ends.

Don't Be Shy had won a Listed, a Grade 3 and a Grade 2 hurdle in France. In one race over there he beat the Grade 1 winner Kiko into second. But he'd run well below that form in two UK hurdles starts. This is not that uncommon however. French hurdles are much more like fences the flimsy things we call hurdles in Britain and Ireland. And French imports often run poorly over them before bouncing back to form when they're put over fences. Their French form was established in jump races, not flat events with optional obstacles that can be flattened by horses who choose not to jump.

It's always hard to tell exactly how far a French import will stay because 98% of French jump races are run over 2m 5f or less. But I'd be pretty confident that Don't Be Shy will turn out to be best over three miles rather than two. I say this for several reasons. Firstly, Don't Be Shy's best French run came when he was stepped up to half a furlong shy of two and a half miles - a long distance for a juvenile hurdler. Secondly, four of his sire's five best chasers to date have been three milers (his dam and grand dam have produced no other jumpers so provide no evidence regarding stamina). Thirdly Don't Be Shy actually ran a decent time according to my speed ratings when running over three miles at Cheltenham, in a race where he made late headway.

Don't Be Shy doesn't need to improve much to become a leading candidate for the Sun Alliance Chase. I'd expect to see him step up to a longer trip and win next time out.

LORD BROCK IS USEFUL

LORD BROCK (36) won a pretty decent class 3 novice's handicap chase at Haydock by ten lengths on his first start over fences. He's going to be hard to beat next time unless he steps up dramatically in class. After that though I'm not so sure as I see a pattern in his (admittedly scant) form that is quite a common one. I call it 'the rest pattern'. Horses that run to the rest pattern are good for their first two following a lengthy break (four months plus) but then need a break of at least five weeks between their completed starts in order to run well again. Normally such horses have some sort of physical problem that is aggravated by racing, hence the need for rests.

So far all of Lord Brock's wins and good runs have conformed to the rest pattern. In fact following a losing debut in a short bumper, he hasn't been out of the first two in five runs where he's been fresh. On the two occasions that he hasn't been fresh though he's finished far back.

It could be that I'm over-analyzing Lord Brock on the basis of insufficient evidence and that his trainer is right in saying he simply needs cut in the ground. Nevertheless I'll still be inclined to support him next time out and then oppose him thereafter unless he's rested for five weeks or more.

WAHOO SAM WILL BE TOUGH TO BEAT ON THE AW

WAHOO SAM (38) earned a write up from me when winning a Ripon handicap in pattern class time last August. And he ran just as fast when taking an unusually strong class 4 handicap on the AW at Wolverhampton last week.

Wahoo Sam is probably best dominating a small field from the front. So if he hits a race with a dozen runners or more I wouldn't necessarily expect him to run up to this form. But in fields of 11 or less (eleven being the cut-off point for most horses that prefer small fields) I'd rate Wahoo Sam as a very tough nut to crack on the AW. He's now won three of his four completed starts on artificial surfaces.

Runner-up RAFFERTY (38) equaled his best ever speed rating to finish a close second. He's got a good record at Wolverhampton and looks a smart bet to win here again soon.

DINGAAN MAY WELL IMPROVE OVER LONGER

Three year olds improve two or three points on my ratings scale from now to the end of the year. So the speed rating earned by DINGAAN (35) when he won a maiden at Lingfield last Saturday borders on pattern class.

In fact Dingaan ought to make more than normal improvement because he was a May foal.

Seeing that he's by Tagula, who is widely regarded as a sprint sire, it's easy to assume that the six furlongs Dingaan won over represents the limits of his stamina. In fact Tagula's best run came when he was third in the French Guineas over a mile and more of his better offspring are milers rather than sprinters. Dingaan's dam was also best at a mile and the only previous foal she had by Tagula was Pentecost who earned Group class speed ratings from me at eight and nine furlongs.

The way that Dingaan was running on at the end of the six furlongs suggests strongly that he'll stay as well as his brother Pentecost. And that makes him look a very interesting prospect indeed.

PORT 'N STARBOARD MUCH BETTER THAN HE LOOKS

Speed ratings are at their best when they tell you something nothing else does. This is the case with PORT 'N STARBOARD (35) who won a maiden last week on the Polytrack.

Port 'N Starboard had 14 previous runs before last week, including several in claimers, and he lost them all. He finally broke his duck at the age of five and looks set to be ignored by most punters next time out as near useless. But the clock tells a different story. He won in the fastest time of the day, running a time that would win most class 4 contests - yet he's eligible for class 5 and 6.

I look forward to getting a big price about Port 'N Starboard when he attempts to add to this win next time, and I wouldn't be surprised if he won three in a row given his low handicap mark.

KICKING KING RAN UP TO HIS BEST

The general consensus seems to be that KICKING KING (44) ran below form when taking the King George. And the fact that he may have injured himself in the race adds weight to the popular view. However, in my experience horses are frequently not affected by even quite serious injuries incurred during a race. Injured or not, my speed ratings say Kicking King ran right up to form..

As I've pointed out before, there is an extraordinarily consistent pattern to Kicking King's speed ratings. Put simply, the longer he goes the faster he runs. Prior to the King George his best speed ratings at the distances he's run were as follows;

3m 2f: 45

3m 1f: 44

3m: 43

2m 6f: 43

2m 4f: 42

2m: 38

On his past form Kicking King should have earned a rating of 43 or 44 at the three miles and half a furlong of the big race, probably 44 seeing that Sandown is such a stiff track. And that's exactly what he did earn.

My ratings say Kicking King is one of the best three mile chasers we've seen in the last decade. He's run a big Grade 1 time in five of his last seven outings, and I can't recall any three mile chaser since Desert Orchid that I could say that of. It's a damn shame that he is to miss his chance of gaining another Gold Cup. I certainly wouldn't got taking short odds about him achieving the feat when he returns either. History shows that no horse has ever won won Gold Cups in non-consecutive years. Sad as it is, we have to accept that we have probably now seen the best of Kicking King and must look elsewhere for the winner of the big race at Cheltenham, not just this year but next year as well.

Runner-up MONKERHOSTIN (44) could be the one to take the 2006 Gold Cup. He did not improve to run second as so many suppose. He's earned the same speed rating from me on two previous occasions. After his loss to Impek I'd speculated here that he might well benefit from a step up in distance and he validated that opinion here.

Monkerhostin has now won four of the six times he's run 2 miles, 5 furlongs or more and finished second in both his losses at a longer trip. I concede this is unusual for a French-bred jumper. Most of them stay no more than 2m 5f, the maximum distance for 99% of French jump races. But Monkerhostin is unusually stoutly bred for a French jumper. Three of the five chasers his sire has had in Britain or Ireland in the last decade stayed three miles. His dam is an influence for longer trips too. She won over the Leger trip on the flat and her sole jumper to date besides Monkerhostin was last season's smart novice chaser Eric's Charm who has already won over 3m 1f.

I think Monkerhostin is over-priced for the Gold Cup. He's shown consistently brilliant form over longer trips and looks set to be one of the big players come March. Between then and now I can see him starting at seriously good odds for one of the big Gold Cup trials, and I wouldn't oppose him. My ratings say there's only one horse that consistently runs fast enough to beat him over longer trips, and that's the horse that beat him here and now misses the Gold Cup.

DON'T DISMISS ONE KNIGHT'S GOLD CUP CLAIMS

Speed ratings are based on a comparison between horses. So it's hard to assign an accurate speed rating when a horse runs much faster than any other horse on the day and wins by a distance. This was the case with L'AVENTURE (43) when she won the Welsh National. But both of the methods I use to assess this unusual situation spit out the same speed rating of 43 for her huge effort. And that looks credible given the searching gallop and the horses she beat.

I would be wary of under-rating L'Aventure even though this was her first win in her last ten starts. She's best when fresh and has actually won three of the four times she's gone two and a half miles or more following a break of six weeks or more since her last completed start.

L'Aventure only won claiming races in France. But that is surely because the races she rain in were almost all over an inadequate distance. The only time she went longer than two and a quarter miles in France she finished three lengths second to the brilliant Kario de Sormain who I rate on a par with out very best jumpers.

L'Aventure has run second in a Grade 1 and would probably have beaten a Grade 1 winner into second here if One Knight hadn't tipped up at the last.

Clearly all L'Aventure does is jump and stay. This is not surprising. She's by Cyborg who gets horses to go longer than almost any other French jumps sire. And she's the only foal of Amphitrite. Amphitrite ran in nothing but Cross Country Chases and was very consistent. She won beyond three miles and reached the first four in 23 of her 29 completed starts which is quite some achievement given the testing nature of the fences and the marathon distances of Cross Country events.

I don't know where L'Aventure goes from here. But if she's kept away from the races for six weeks or more before any of her remaining starts this term watch out.

ONE KNIGHT (42) would probably have finished second to L'Aventure if he'd stood up. He ran some race seeing that he was giving the winner chunks of weight - which is always difficult over a marathon trip on soft ground.

You can make a case for saying that One Knight might well have won all eight of his chase starts but for jumping errors. Remember he won the Sun Alliance Chase, beating the very smart Jair Du Cochet. As I see it, he remains a very promising chaser. I wouldn't dismiss his Gold Cup chances lightly and expect to see him win something big this term.

FEATHARD LADY NOT QUICK ENOUGH FOR THE CHAMPION

FEATHARD LADY (41) won the Christmas Hurdle most impressively and is now unbeaten in seven starts. So it was hardly surprising her odds were cut for the Champion Hurdle afterwards. But the clock suggests she's just not quick enough for the job. In fact, according to my estimates she only ran a Grade 2 time. The time of the first race at Sandown over the same course and distance provides a solid guide to the merit of her run. I'd have to assume that everything which finished close up in that race bettered their top lifetime speed rating to award Feathard Lady a bigger number. In addition, take a look at the horses Feathard Lady beat. This was undoubtedly a well below par renewal of the Christmas Hurdle.

Studies of speed ratings worldwide show that on average the best fillies and mares are three lengths per mile slower than the best colts and horses. So the best speed rating you'll ever see from a female jumper normally is between 41 and 42 - and that's not quite fast enough to win a Champion Hurdle. Okay Dawn Run won the race, but she was so extraordinarily good they built a statue in her honour at Cheltenham. If you back Feathard lady for the Champion Hurdle you're betting that she's as good as a once in several decades mare like Dawn Run - and that's being way too optimistic for anyone who wants to make a long term profit.

I think the bookies over-reacted here, understandably so, seeing how impressive Feathard Lady was and how Irish hurdlers now seem to hold such a big edge over their British counterparts. But I'd urge punters to be much more cautious and not take the short odds about her winning at Cheltenham.

DENMAN RAN FAST

DENMAN (39) ran away with the Challow Hurdle in fast time for a novice. He won his sole point to point by a dozen lengths and is still unbeaten in three starts over hurdles. He's run as fast as most Sun Alliance Hurdle winners did before taking the big race at Cheltenham and looks a logical favorite for that contest. My one concern at this stage would be the likely firm ground at the Festival. Denman raced on yielding ground here and five of his dam's six other winning offspring were basically soft ground performers. His sire tends to get horses that do best with cut in the ground too. Only time will tell if Denman can produce this level of form on a firmer surface.

DARKNESS' WIN WAS GOOD ENOUGH

I thought I'd found a great opportunity to oppose a favourite in the Feltham Novices' Chase in Crozan. The horse had lost all ten of his starts in France where he was rated only 115. What's more, like most French-bred jumpers, both his sire had never performed well beyond 2m 5f. My speed ratings indicated that his UK debut win was massively over-rated. So I figured the chance of him staying the distance let alone winning was minute.

The horse I opposed Crozan with was DARKNESS (37) and I did finally get the result I was looking for. But for most of the race Darkness was being niggled along while jumping moderately, and he looked a no-hoper with half a mile to run. He eventually got rolling and won, with his trainer explaining that the slightly sub-par effort was probably down to bringing him out again too soon and running him right-handed. He now aims to keep him fresh till Cheltenham, which of course runs left-handed.

Darkness had earned a somewhat bigger speed rating from me (39) a couple of runs back and I'm not going to knock a horse that's won all three races he's run beyond two miles over fences, beating a Grade 1 winner into second each time.

The Grade 1 winner that Darkness beat this time was ZABENZ (36) who won the New York Turfwriters Cup at Saratoga back in 2002. That race invariably attracts America's very best chasers, and it certainly did that year with the smart Double Leaf running second and subsequent Breeders' Cup Chase winner Flat Top finishing third.

The ballpark speed ratings I've been able to make for the US and Australian runs of Zabenz suggest that, like the winner, he too can run at least two or three lengths a mile faster than he did here. I strongly suspect he will run faster in future too because the ground was a bit too quick for him here.

The former Australian trainer of Zabenz told US reporters that the reason he won the big race over there was that it was run on the same sort of ground the horse that prevailed for his three hurdles wins in Australia. In fact Zabenz has won all five times he's run over Australian hurdles or Fences elsewhere on ground that the going allowances I produce for my speed ratings say was genuinely soft. He didn't seem to take to the flimsy UK version of hurdles, but now that he's back chasing he's showing his old form. Quite why he qualifies as a novice chaser is beyond me, but he certainly ought to be able to take advantage of his greater experience the next time it comes up soft. For betting purposes I just hope that he encounters faster ground once or twice before then to ensure a nice price.

SHARES WORTH BUYING INTO

SHARES (37) is not really bred for national hunt distances. Indeed his trainer Peter Monteith has said that he hasn't been getting home over two and a quarter miles or even at two miles on stiff tracks. This is probably why Shares improved so much when he encountered a dead flat track and the minimum jumps distance of two miles on his chasing debut at Ayr. He beat a smart rival in MR MCAULEY (36) into second and the pair pulled well clear of the field.

Right now I think we have to go with the trainer's conviction that Shares needs a dead flat track and two miles. But the horse is still only five and it's perfectly possible he'll develop a bit more stamina as he strengthens up. In any event, given his requirements he's capable of running with the best novice chasers.

Runner-up MrMcAuley didn't finish that far back in the Festival Bumper which is always a red hot race. He also beat the smart On The Net over hurdles. But now that he's switched to the game he's bred for he's showing what he can really do. Given his fairly stout pedigree, he probably needs a bit more than two miles. It's also possible that he prefers going right-handed as he jumped right here and his two previous wins came on right-handed tracks. It's going to take a smart horse to beat him next time.

KINBURN COULD BE ANYTHING

KINBURN (36) won in good time on his chasing debut at Sedgefield. He jumped well and was always moving strongly. It's hard to tell just how good he is at this stage. All I can say is that he'll at least prove competitive in Listed and Graded novice chases judged by the time he ran here.

LORIENT EXPRESS HAS IMPROVED

I thought MASTER REX (35) was a dead cert to win at Wincanton over Christmas. He'd won the last seven times he'd raced right-handed on a relatively flat galloping track on good ground (the circumstances his trainer says he favors). But he got beat fair and square by LORIENT EXPRESS (38).

Lorient Express ran a Grade 3 time to win the race and is running much faster now that he's learned to settle. He's won three of his last four starts with his sole defeat coming at the hands of the useful DEMI BEAU who is now beginning to look rather interesting himself.

Even if he gets put up another stone for this Lorient Express will still qualify for races well below his true class according to my ratings. So I'd say he's worth following.

HEATHCOTE A DECENT JUVENILE

Juvenile hurdlers tend to be a few lengths slower than novices, so the time run by HEATHCOTE (35) is worthy of note. He beat a decent field in good time for a juvenile on what was his hurdling debut.

Heathcote's trainer Gary Moore says the horse stays well and likes soft ground. The horse's form bears this out so it will be interesting to see what he does when getting the chance to go longer on suitable ground. He's probably not a Triumph Hurdle horse given the distance and likely fast ground that race is normally run on these days. And he'll have to tackle older horses if he's to go a longer trip, but he's fast enough to beat them on this run.

Runner-up VICTORIAS GROOM (34) pulled six lengths clear of the rest and is more than capable of winning a decent race on this showing. She'd been second to two useful horses (class C in British terms) in her two German starts and has an interesting pedigree. Her dam, Valda, bombed in Germany but won nine of her ten starts in Russia including the Russian Oaks. Valda's sole defeat in Russian came in the Russian derby where she ran third.

KYMANDJEN HAS A BIG SHOT OF LANDING THE TOPHAM TOPHY

Nobody knows a horse better than its connections. And if you listen to what they say you usually gain some valuable insight about their runners. The comments of James Nolan about KYMANJEN (38) after he'd won at Tramore last week are a case in point. He said the horse is a bit of a worrier and that his big objective is likely to be the Topham Trophy. This suggests two things to me. First, as with most horses that worry, Kymandjen is probably best when fresh. Second, the fact that his connections favour the Topham rather than the National suggests they're worried about his stamina.

In fact, if you look at Kymandjen's record at less than three miles when he's been off for more than a month since his last completed start it's pretty darned spectacular. He shows five wins from seven tries in these circumstances, and one of his losses was a smart second at the Punchestown Festival.

Providing that he's kept fresh for Aintree I'd say Kymandjen has a big chance of landing the Topham. He's at least as fast as the average winner of that race according to my ratings and jumps very well.

BOO IS SCARY

Anything other than a Group class three year old has no business running as fast as BOO (37) did when he won a good handicap on the AW at Wolverhampton. He's now unbeaten in three starts on the AW and is to be aimed at the Winter Derby. Unfortunately it would take a Group 1 three year old to beat older horses in a contest as good as the Winter Derby run so early in the year. And I doubt that Boo is a Group 1 horse. Nonetheless he is very smart and may well be able to show the same for on firm turf. This means he's one to keep an eye on in the coming months as he'll surely be placed to win something decent.

TURNER'S TOUCH WAY BETTER THAN BANDED STAKES CLASS

I am not a fan of so-called 'Regional Racing'. The idea of a card filled with horses rated lower than selling class is not my idea of fun. The horses are so bad you rarely see anything approaching a fast time. But TURNER'S TOUCH (33) proved an exception when winning one of those dreadful 'Banded Stakes' at Lingfield. He ran fast enough to win a proper race and looks worth following till the handicapper finally assigns him an official rating in line with his true class.