IT WASN’T THE GROUND THAT BEAT BLACK JACK KETCHUM

I’ve never been a huge fan of Black Jack Ketchum (6). So I wasn’t too surprised to see him get beat in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham. What I find truly surprising is that he is still as short as 5-4 to win the World Hurdle in March.

Believe me, it wasn’t the heavy ground that beat Black Jack Ketchum. The going was only two fifths of a second per mile faster by my estimates when he won the Relkeel Hurdle over 2m 5f of the same course last month.

As I see it, far and away the most likely explanation for Black Jack Ketchum’s flop is that he failed to stay. Plenty of horses which can beat novices at three miles prove better at shorter trips when they face more experienced rivals. And there is strong evidence in Black Jack Ketchum’s pedigree to suggest he is just this sort of horse. After all, of the other top 26 hurdlers produced by his sire Oscar (based on Raceform ratings) only one scored at three miles or more. This lone exception was Refinement, and she clearly got her stamina from her very stoutly bred dam Maneree (a triple winner over three miles plus). Black Jack Ketchum’s dam Cailin Supreme is nothing like the same influence for stamina. Yes Cailin Supreme won a couple of slow run bumper races at two and a half miles. But over hurdles she won three times out of six at two miles and lost all six times she ran longer. Cailin Supreme is a sister to Castlekellyleader who won six of her twelve starts at two and a half miles or less but ran unplaced all three times she went longer. Indeed, nothing remotely close up on Black Jack Ketchum’s dam’s side scored over three miles or more.

The form book comments for Black Jack Ketchum’s run read “quickened to challenge 2 out, ridden well before last and soon beaten”. Sure sounds like a non-stayer to me.

EXOTIC DANCER STILL NEEDS TO PROVE HE STAYS

I wouldn’t read too much into the result of the Cotswold Chase won by Exotic Dancer (33) because my ratings say that the visibly slow pace in the first mile affected the final time. It wasn’t a proper test of stamina.

Exotic Dancer faded away like an old soldier up the final hill in the 2005 World Hurdle. My gut feel is that’s exactly what he’ll be doing in the closing stages of the Gold Cup. In this race he had three serious challengers with three to jump. Two of them tipped up when still running strongly and the other clearly failed to stay. So I just can’t rate this run very highly at all.

I am no longer enthused by the runner-up Our Vic (27) either. He ran well below his best here despite being fresh as he has been before all his biggest runs. This was the longest distance, the stiffest track and the softest ground he’s ever tried. The combination found him out and he was legless in the closing stages. He literally almost stopped on the run in. The chances of him getting the Gold Cup trip in a more strongly run race now look remote. It’s also worth bearing in mind that the progeny of his sire Old Vic seem to deteriorate with age as early as French bred chasers. Prior to this latest loss, Old Vic’s progeny aged eight or less had won 73 of their 386 chase starts. His older runners like Our Vic scored just 1 time out of 39.

FLYING ENTERPRISE THE ONE TO BEAT IN JEWSON

FLYING ENTERPRISE (39) clocked a seriously fast time to win a valuable novices’ handicap chase at the big Cheltenham last week. He has now won by a big margin all three times that he’s gone longer distances over fences and looks the one they’ll all have to beat in the Jewson Novices’ Chase at the Festival.

WICHITA LINEMAN DOES IT AGAIN

WICHITA LINE MAN (38) ran another fast time to take a good Grade 2 novice hurdle at Cheltenham by six lengths. He’d run even faster when winning the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle at Newbury and deserves to be a short-priced favourite for the Brit Insurance Novices’ Hurdle at the Festival.

MADISON DU BERLAIS HAS MAJOR CHANCE IN GRAND ANNUAL

MADISON DU BERLAIS (39) is almost boringly consistent at around two miles. His win at Southwell last week was the fifth time he’s scored in his last six tries at less than two and a half miles when he’s had a run within the last month. His sole recent loss at a short trip when fit was a most unlucky third in the Grand Annual at last year’s Cheltenham Festival. He’ll be saddled with a fair bit more weight in the same race this year but must have a great chance of taking it.

URSIS SMART IN MUD

URSIS (37) won a Hereford novice chase in pattern class time from the useful FOUNTAIN HILL (35). He’s clearly a smart horse when there’s cut in the ground as he has now won six of the eight times he’s run on yielding or softer ground when he’s had a run within the last three months. I imagine his connections will be aiming him at one of the lesser events at the Cheltenham Festival. If he got his ground there he’d have a shot.

Fountain Hill did very well for a horse whose last run was nearly two years before. He always looked like making a better chaser than a hurdler and should have little difficulty taking an ordinary novice chase in the near future.

CALIFORNIA LAWS IS FAST ON A SLOW SURFACE

CALIFORNIA LAWS (38) won a good class 2 handicap at Southwell in a time that would take many Group 3 contests. He is clearly a very smart performer on Fibresand, having won all four times he’s run seven furlongs or more on the surface. But it may well be that he’ll prove equally good on soft or heavy turf, seeing that he won so well on heavy ground at Haydock last year. He’s going to be hard to place since he appears to dislike normal fast turf or Polytrack and there aren‘t many races on Fibresand he‘s eligible for. However he looks well worth watching out for when his new connections manage to find a race for him at Southwell or steer him towards soft or heavy ground on turf.

SUPER FRANK HASN’T STOPPED WINNING

SUPER FRANK (38) ran remarkably fast to win a class 4 handicap at Lingfield. He has now won four of the five times he’s run seven furlongs on Polytrack and still looks massively under-rated by the handicapper. I’d be surprised if he didn’t win again soon.

Runner-up BARNEY MCGREW (36) has only had four starts and looks sure to be franking this form soon.

MALETTON CAN WIN SOMETHING BETTER

You don't find many dual Listed winners in 0-120 handicap chases at Fakenham, especially when they're still only seven years of age. But MALETTON (37) proved he was still capable of winning at that level when running a fast time to score by six lengths.

Maletton's dam has produced six other foals. Five of them were steeplechasers and two actually ran over Cross Country courses. So it's not surprising that Maletton showed little over the flimsy knock over hurdles they have in Britain. He's done a whole lot better over the fixed brush hurdles they have in France and over fences in Britain. In fact if he hadn't slipped up at Sandown he may well have won five of the last six times he's run over bigger obstacles. His other loss besides Sandown came over two and a half miles, a trip that's probably too short for him over fences.

Maletton is still a novice, and he's not that far off the best first season chasers. But his handicap mark is still remarkably low for a horse of his ability so I imagine his connections will be keen to exploit it against more experienced chasers again. Either way I'd be wary of opposing Maletton right now. He's a smart three mile chaser who looks an interesting candidate for one of the big Cheltenham handicaps over that trip.

AFSOUN NEEDS TO DO A WHOLE LOT MORE

Afsoun (37) ran a very ho hum time to take the so-called Champion Hurdle Trial at Haydock from the 13 year old The French Furze. I guess he could do no more than win easily. But he's only run a point quicker than this on my ratings before and needs to do a whole lot more to rate as any sort of a threat in the Champion Hurdle itself. He's schooled well over fences already apparently and may well be an Arkle prospect next year. This year I'd be very surprised to see him feature at the Cheltenham Festival.

THE NATIONAL IS A YEAR TOO EARLY FOR THE OUTLIER

The Outlier (38) ran a reasonable time to win the peter Marsh Chase in hock deep mud. But he looks a no-hoper for the Grand National to me. The stats indicate that very few horses which were novices the previous season succeed at Aintree. In addition National winners have invariably proven that they could cope with big fields over big fences. So far The Outlier's wins have all been in fields of ten or less over fences that claim a low percentage of fallers. He might be a decent Grand National candidate next year when he's gained more experience. Right now I wouldn't give him much hope of taking the big race.

QADAR MIGHT BE THE NEXT LES ARCS

Last year Les Arcs developed into one of the top sprinters after doing well on the AW during the Winter. This season I'm thinking that QADAR (40) has a shot of emulating him. True he had a tailwind to help him break Lingfield's six furlong course record and he only scored narrowly. But he beat some very smart horses and I rate his win a Group 2 class performance.

Up to now Qadar has been a horse that seems to need a small field in order to avoid traffic problems. But that's been around a turn. The runners spread out more on straight courses and I suspect Qadar will handle bigger fields in such circumstances. So far Qadar has only run three times on straight courses at six furlongs, and all three runs were back in his two year old season. He placed against Group 1 horses all three times. I'll be interested in following him at six furlongs on straight courses once he's switched from the Poly and the ground has firmed up on turf.

PLAYERS PLEASE AND CHALLIS ARE CLASSIC PROSPECTS

About once every year or so there is a freakishly fast maiden run on the AW. Normally it involves two smart colts that challenge each other from a long way out on and pull clear of the field. It is the duel between two colts of equal ability which produces the fast time. Usually the ability of both colts is evident and they end up winning separate maidens in much slower time. It's when they happen to run in the same race that you end up with a time like the one recorded by PLAYERS PLEASE (38) when he beat CHALLIS (37) at Wolverhampton.

Players Please was unraced before he won at Wolverhampton while Challis had run green over distances that are now obviously inadequate for him. So it's understandable that their connections were unable to take steps to avoid each other. Their failure highlighted the tremendous ability of their horses though.

Players Please ran a time that would be getting me interested in his Epsom prospects if he'd run it in the Sandown Classic Trial in April or the Lingfield Derby Trial in May. To run this fast over a trip just shy of ten furlongs in early January is pretty darned incredible.

I note with interest that Players Please is entered in the Epsom Derby even though I can't find an ante-post price for him, not even on Betfair. I imagine you might get something like 100-1 if you asked and shopped around. I wouldn't mind a bit of that each-way.

Challis again ran green yet got to within a length of a very smart rival. No doubt he'll win a maiden by a big margin next time. After that he'll surely develop into a contender for Derby trials just like the winner.

TURN ON THE STYLE BREAKS COURSE RECORD

I noted last week that TURN ON THE STYLE (39) had run amazingly fast to win at Southwell. I actually gave him a Group class rating for the win. This being so he looked a good thing for a class 5 handicap at Lingfield which he duly won.

Turn On The Style would have broken the course record last time if the going had been a bit quicker. It was on this occasion, so it's no great surprise he bettered the fastest time previously clocked over five furlongs at Lingfield.

As I've mentioned before, I'm not yet convinced that Turn On The Style is over his starting problems. All his wins bar one have been in fields of ten or less, and I suspect he gets intimidated into starting slowly when there are more runners than that surrounding him in the stalls. For this reason I suspect being drawn in the outermost stall was a plus for him here just as it was when he won from draw ten in another ten runner race at Wolverhampton.

At this stage I'd be inclined to oppose Turn On The Style in fields bigger than ten, especially when he's drawn close to the rail. Perhaps I'll be proved wrong. But if he were mine I'd be forgetting about Turn On The Style's ludicrously low handicap mark and steering him towards pattern races where the fields tend to be smaller.

TOPIARY IN GREAT SHAPE TO WIN AGAIN

TOPIARY (36) clocked a very decent time to win at Wolverhampton and has now won three of the four times he's run beyond sprint distances on the AW (he was hampered in his sole loss). He'll probably still be eligible for class 5 races after this and he's a good deal better than that according to my speed ratings. I'd actually make him a good bet to win a class 3 or 4 race. That means he has a good shot of winning again in the near future.

PICADOR SHOULD WIN AGAIN

PICADOR (36) is a typical Mark Prescott horse. After three sprint runs he was bet to win on his handicap debut at a middle distance. This is Sir Mark's trademark move and you'd have made a good profit over the years betting horses he's tried it with. In Picador's case it didn't quite work, he lost by a neck. But he's won two of his three subsequent outings, most recently taking a class 6 handicap at Wolverhampton in Listed class time.

Picador reportedly 'ran flat' when running below form on his next to last outing at Kempton. That doesn't exactly tell us much. My speculation would be that he doesn't act very well on the slower Polytrack surface they have at Kempton. Experience in America and Britain seems to be showing that not all Polytracks are the same. The surface seems peculiarly sensitive to how its laid and managed particularly in regards to its depth and how deeply it's harrowed. Just because a horse acts on one Polytrack doesn't mean it will act on another.

In any event Picador goes to the sales next month. Knowing Sir Mark, I wouldn't be at all surprised if he doesn't get two or three wins out of the horse before then by exploiting its remarkably low official handicap mark.

POUVOIR THE FASTEST JUVENILE HURDLER

Last season we saw what I rated as the best crop of juvenile hurdlers in decades. So it was inevitable that this season's juveniles would be disappointing in comparison. However we do now have one young hurdler that rates as somewhere near the freakishly fast generation we saw last year in POUVOIR (38) who blew home by 14 lengths at Kempton last Saturday. Lines of form point the same way as time comparisons, so it's not the funny new distance at Kempton that's produced Pouvoir's big speed rating. He really is that fast.

Pouvoir would probably have won on his debut but for falling. Next time out he jumped hesitantly early on, so it seems likely he should have won on that occasion too instead of losing by half a length to the smart Degas Art. The only real blip on his record is his third start where his trainer feels he was brought back to the races too quickly.

This latter comment meshes well with Pouvoir's form which indicates he runs to what I call the 'rest pattern'. That is he's good for his first two starts off a three month plus break but then needs a gap of at least five weeks between his completed starts in order to run well again. Then again, he's lightly raced, and there's not really enough evidence for me to be confident about this conclusion. All I can really say for now is that the 33-1 available about Pouvoir's chances in the Triumph Hurdle seems way too big.

CHIEF YEOMAN JUST AS GOOD OVER FENCES

I've never been a great fan of Buena Vista (37). He's only ever earned Listed class speed ratings from me. So I was happy to oppose him when he started at odds on for a Hereford Novice Chase. Unfortunately for me he won. But he still didn't run better than a Listed class time and the horse I took him on with, CHIEF YEOMAN (37) would have won but for stumbling at the last.

There were several reasons I was keen on Chief Yeoman. Firstly he'd run faster than Buena Vista according to my ratings. Secondly, his trainer, Venetia Williams, had run ten horses over fences in the last decade whose most recent official hurdle rating was 130 or more like Chief Yeoman's. Five of the ten won on their chasing debuts. Secondly Chief Yeoman's sire, Machiavellian, had done well with his few chasing runners. He'd had six that were rated 110 or more officially over hurdles that ran over fences. Three of the six won on their first start over fences.

Sadly the stats weren't quite borne out this time as Chief Yeoman went under by a short head. However Venetia Williams' charge now looks a better Arkle prospect than the winner and will be awfully hard to beat next time.

LADALKO IS AMAZINGLY CONSISTENT ON LEFT-HANDED TRACKS

LADALKO (40) is much better at jumping fences when going left-handed according to his trainer. And he proved him right when taking the valuable totesport.com Classic Chase at Warwick. In doing so he ran a time that marks him out as one of the top contenders for the Grand National.

Ladalko would have won all five times he's gone left-handed over fences but for a half length loss at Stratford over an inadequate trip and a short head defeat in the Scottish National. He has yet to win and has fallen three times in six chase starts on right handed courses.

The big concern about Ladalko's prospects at Aintree is obviously his jumping. Indeed Aintree's fences are always a daunting challenge for the relatively lighter-framed French bred chasers such as him. However there are now so many French-bred jumpers in Britain that the huge losing streak they've had in the Grand National has to end some day and Ladalko could easily be the one to do the job.

Runner-up MON MOME (39) is also a French bred. But he was a novice last year and is not a big horse according to his trainer so he has three huge strikes against him in regards to Aintree. I'd oppose him with some confidence there but elsewhere he's going to be tough to beat.

Mon Mome is way too consistent to be just another staying handicap chaser. Give him a bit of cut in the ground and a recent run and he always runs his race. In fact his last two starts are the first chases he's lost in six tries in these conditions. In one of the defeats he was second to Halcon Genelardais and here he ran second to Ladalko, giving both of these smart chasers a real fight.

Mon Mome looks nailed on to win a big staying handicap chase sometime this season. I'm pretty sure it won't be the Grand National. But in anything else I'd be wary of opposing him.

NAUNTON BROOK (39) ran his best ever race to finish third. He's a bold jumping front runner who has never fallen in 16 chase starts and stays all day. So he actually looks a better prospect for the Grand National than the horses which beat him. He's improved steadily with each season he's raced and clearly excels on tracks with steep uphill finishes. So if he gets outpaced on Aintree's dead flat track in the National I'd still be interested in his chances in the Betfred Gold Cup at Sandown where the steep final climb should suit him down to the ground.

IDOLE FIRST STILL SMART WHEN FRESH

IDOLE FIRST (38) ran about as fast as he ever has to win a hot class 3 handicap chase at Kempton. The trick with him seems to be the spacing of his runs. He has now won seven of the ten times he's had a break of five weeks or more between his runs but lost all 13 times he's been brought back more quickly. On this run he'd have a shot of bagging another Cheltenham Festival win if he's rested until the big meeting. But I wouldn't want to bet on him replicating this form if he's brought out again before February 17th, five weeks from the run.

Runner-up LASKARI (37) looks a bit more likely to win in the immediate future. As I see it, the big clue to his form is that he's been largely restricted to right-handed tracks despite the fact that two thirds of UK courses are left-handed. Clearly his connections think he prefers going right and Laskari's form suggests they are correct It also seems likely that the horse does not get home on stiff tracks. But he'd won the two previous times he'd run on an easy right-handed track and ran a big race here. So next time he runs on an easy right-handed course like Kempton I'd be very interested in his chances.

TORKINKING HAS A SHOT IN CHAMPION HURDLE TRIAL

TORKINKING (38) is a tough front runner to pull back when he's allowed his own way up front in a small field on soft ground at the minimum distance. He had his ideal conditions when romping home by ten lengths at Wetherby and looks set to have them again when he lines up for the Champion Hurdle Trial at Haydock this coming weekend. Haydock strongly favours front runners like Torkinking so I'm going to be very interested in his chances on Saturday.

NIRVANA DU BOURG LOOKS INTERESTING FOR THE PERTEMPS FINAL

ROWLEY HILL (36) failed to score when tried over fences last season. But he's clearly a useful staying hurdler, as he showed when winning a Pertemps qualifier at Warwick last week.

My research indicates that most horses overjump and lose in their first two hurdles starts after going chasing. So I think Rowley Hill's two losses when he reverted to the smaller obstacles last season are excusable. He's won four of his other most recent starts at three miles plus over hurdles and looks a better prospect for the final of this race at Cheltenham than for novice chases, seeing that he jumped badly every time he tried the bigger obstacles last term.

Interesting as Rowley Hill is, the horse to take out of the race as I see it is NIRVANA DU BOURG (34).

Nirvana Du Bourg wasn't that far off the top chasers in France according to my speed ratings (I gave him a rating of 39 for his best recent run). It may well be that he fared less well over hurdles simply because the races weren't long enough for him over there. He did fine over three miles here on his first run over British hurdles which are much more flimsy than those he's used to. Once he's had another run over them to get his eye in I'd see him as a very good prospect for the final of this race. And if trainer Nicky Henderson decides to revert him to fences I'd still see him as a good candidate for one of the big Cheltenham handicaps.

TURN ON THE STYLE LIVES UP TO HIS NAME

There have been 773 races run over six furlongs on Southwell's Fibresand track in the last eleven years. When he bolted up by three lengths last week TURN ON THE STYLE (39) ran the ninth fastest time in this period despite the fact he wasn't racing on particularly fast going. Clearly he's a very smart sprinter.

In the past Turn On The Style has spoilt his chances by playing up at the start and losing a lot of ground when the stalls opened. He didn't do that this time. It could be he's over the problem. But I reckon that a lot of sprinters habitually lose ground at the start because it is the most crowded point of a race. In my experience I've found that sprinters which lose ground at the start are often better in smaller fields. In this regard I note with interest that Turn On The Style has finished first or second the last seven times he's run in fields of ten or less as he did here. Certainly he'll be interesting next time however many runners line up. But I'd be more confident of his chances in a race where he faces nine or fewer rivals.

MAGIC GLADE BACK TO HIS BEST

I can remember a few years ago being very impressed with the fast times MAGIC GLADE (38) consistently ran on Fibresand. Seeing that he's now eight years of age, I thought all that was behind him. But apparently not. New trainer Tom Dascombe somehow got the old boy back to his very vest form on only his second start for the new handler.

I confess that I've never really understood just why Britain has the vast majority of the best sprinters in Europe. But for whatever reason, I'd estimate there are at least ten times more horses capable of winning foreign Group races in Britain at 5-6f than there are at middle distances. Nonetheless, in the class 4 races that Magic Glade is still eligible for, ability such as his is still rare. This being so I'd say he's likely to win again soon before he's forced to tackle the Group class sprinters which run in class 3 & higher.

PABLO DU CHARMIL DOES IT AGAIN

PABLO DU CHARMIL (40) earned another huge speed rating from me when scoring by 23 lengths at Warwick. He didn't manage to win over the flimsy hurdles they have in Britain. But over the fixed brush hurdles they have in France and in steeplechases he's now won five times out of five - earning the same monster speed rating on three of those occasions.

My only concern with Pablo Du Charmil now is that he takes so much out of himself by running fast so often that he may well need to be fresh in order to run to form. In this regard I note with interest that all his wins conform to what I call the rest pattern. That is he's good for his first two starts off a long break but then needs at least five weeks between his completed starts thereafter. This being so I'd like to see him rested between now and the Arkle. If he runs again within less than five weeks he'll probably 'bounce' off this run. And if he runs again later on he won't have enough time to recover before Cheltenham. Unless that is he runs on the 5th or 6th of February - which would leave him five weeks between this run and also before Cheltenham.

In any event Pablo Du Charmil is one of the very best novice chasers we've seen this season and should be able to take a Grade 1 contest. Next season he ought to be a Champion Chase prospect.

GENTLEMAN'S DEAL ONE OF THE BEST AW HORSES EVER

The Fibresand surface at Southwell is slower than it was. So GENTLEMAN'S DEAL (42) should really have broken the track record when he won a red hot class 2 handicap over a mile there the other day. As it is he ran the fastest time over the course and distance in the last six years, having set the previous fastest time in the same period himself a year earlier.

Gentleman's Deal now ranks as one of the best AW horses ever on my speed ratings and is unbeaten in five starts on sand. However I think it is highly be significant that his three Fibresand runs have produced pattern class times while his two Polytrack efforts have been a whole lot slower. He's hung in both his Polytrack wins too and kept straight as a die on his Fibresand starts. This leads me to believe he is not comfortable racing on the much faster Polytrack surface and therefore unable to produce the same level of form he can on Fibresand.

It seems a shame that Gentleman's Deal is six years of age and has only won 50,000 pounds. Horses with his level of ability in America normally win at least ten times that much. If he were mine I'd be shipping him to America right away and running him in New York where the tracks are still traditional dirt and not Polytrack.

Runner-up SPEEDY SAM (40) showed remarkable versatility by running as fast as he had last time despite the switch from Polytrack to Fibresand and the drop in distance from ten furlongs to a mile. He was unlucky to come up against such a smart rival and continues to look a very good prospect for the Winter Derby.

UHOOMAGOO (39) is very smart on firm turf at seven furlongs but seems happy over a bit longer on the AW. He’d won his two most recent starts on Fibresand before this so clearly likes the surface. It’s interesting to note that he’d also won his only recent start on Wolverhampton’s Polytrack but run below form in his seven AW starts at Kempton and Lingfield. The key to him seems to be a strong pace and a strong pace is far more common on Fibresand than Polytrack. So at this point I’d prefer his chances back here at Southwell if he can be found another race or else at Wolverhampton in an event where a strong pace seemed likely. In the right conditions he’s capable of beating Group class rivals.

BAHAR SHUMAAL TOUGH TO BEAT ON POLY

BAHAR SHUMAAL (39) earned the biggest speed rating I've given a horse on the AW in years when breaking the course record for 1m 1f & 103 yards at Wolverhampton in October. And he again ran a seriously fast time when returning to the course and distance to take a red hot Class 2 handicap.

Bahar Shumaal didn't run quite as fast as he did in November. Nonetheless he ran quick enough to win many Group 2 contests. Unfortunately he left open the question of whether he will settle well enough to win at the slow pace most Polytrack races are run at. He'd spoiled his chances by pulling like a train in more slowly run races at Lingfield. Here though, thanks to the tearaway Weightless, he had a strong pace to run at.

I'd still like to see Bahar Shumaal try his luck in America. He's run as fast as Hal's Pal, River Keen and Running Stag did on the AW in Britain. And those horses each went on to win millions of dollars on dirt in America. In Europe he's going to have to clock up a lot of air miles to find pattern races to run in on the AW. Either that or he'll have to take another shot at running on grass which I think would be a shame as he's clearly so much better on sand.

Runner-up VACATION (39) looks a better prospect to show the same form on grass since it looks like the stepmup in trip rather than the switch to the AW that's produced his recent improvement. It looks like he found a mile too short on the lightning fast surface at Lingfield. But he would have won his other three AW starts before this but for pulling hard and hanging when going under by half a length one time.

Vacation looks likely to do well when he's stepped up to ten furlongs, so, like the winner, he looks a good prospect for the Winter Derby in March. Meanwhile he should be able to win pretty much any race he runs in, as long as it's not over a mile at Lingfield.

Third placed LANGFORD (37) showed that he is as good as ever at seven years of age. He'd shown steady improvement since coming back off a lay-off to run on the AW. Prior to that he'd won four of the seven times he'd run 8-9.5f on good to firm or faster ground in fields of ten or less and run close seconds in two of his losses. Fields that small are the norm on the AW so Langford looks set to win soon.

KINDLELIGHT DEBUT (37) won a whole bunch of AW races from January to March last year and looks to be hitting form at the same time now. I'd bet on him winning again in the very near future.

WILL HATTAN ACT ON DIRT IN DUBAI?

Clive Brittain has an amazing knack of picking the right horses to switch to the AW. In fact you'd have more than trebled your money if you'd bet the horses aged three and up with official ratings of 80 or more that he's given their first start on the AW in the last eleven years. This being so it's no surprise that HATTAN (39) was able to make a winning AW debut at Wolverhampton, and ran as fast as he ever has on turf.

My read of Hattan is that he has been running the wrong distance or racing on the wrong ground for much of his career.

I think Hattan's connections got misled into thinking he was a 12 furlong horse by the fact that he won the Chester Vase over that distance. But the Chester Vase was a slowly run race and Chester is a very tight track, and it's perfectly possible for a ten furlong horse to last a mile and a half in such circumstances.

Since losing on his racecourse debut Hattan has run four times over ten furlongs or less on good or softer turf. The first time was when he was an unlucky in running third in the Classic Trial at Sandown. The second was when he ran a close second in Group 2 class time to the very smart older horse Eccentric as a three year old (he might well have won that day had he not raced alone) The third time was when he ran a close third to subsequent Group 1 winner Notnowcato. The fourth time was when he ran second in a Group 1 last time out to triple Group 1 winner Cherry Mix.

In my experience Polytrack quite often suits horses like Hattan that are one paced on grass. It takes the edge off their rivals' acceleration. The question now is 'will Hattan act on dirt' in Dubai? His sire Halling won on dirt at Nad Al Sheba but that was against other turf performers in very slow time. He flopped against high class dirt rivals on the surface in the States. His dam produced a Nad Al Sheba winner too in Luzern. But that was on grass. Luzern failed to place in a whole string of outings on dirt. On balance therefore I'm inclined to think Hattan won't do well in Dubai as the turf will be too firm and his pedigree says he won't like dirt. But when he gets back to Britain I see him winning something decent at ten furlongs or less on good or slower going.

Runner up RED SPELL (39) continues to be one of Europe's top AW horses despite losing no less than 21 races in a row. His problem appears to be that he is a hold up horse who needs a stronger pace than normally prevails on the Polytrack. This being so I'd imagine his big target will once again be the Pramms Memorial on real dirt at Jagersro in May.

KING OF MUSIC BETTER THAN SELLING CLASS

I don't know why KING OF MUSIC (34) improved so much to win a seller by ten lengths at Lingfield. All I can say is that the time he clocked suggests strongly he should follow up this win in better company for his new connections.

BOHEMIAN SPIRIT BETTER AT SHORTER TRIPS

BOHEMIAN SPIRIT (38) frequently gets himself worked up before his races and then tears off into the lead. So the cut back to two miles looks like a smart move. He ran a tremendous race over the trip to be a close second to Kalca Mome who I rate a Grade 2 horse on my ratings. He'd won his three previous completed starts over jumps at two and a half miles or less. And now he's gone and bolted up in fast time at Sandown over the minimum distance.

Nicky Richards said in the past that he didn't want to run Bohemian Spirit on soft or heavy ground. Indeed until last time out he'd failed to complete all three times he'd run on such going. But now it's clear that was simply because he tired badly in the going. At two miles he's handled mud perfectly fine on his last two outings.

I've now awarded Bohemian Spirit pattern class speed ratings on several occasions and, seeing how consistent he is at shorter distances, I suspect he has a won or two more left in him this season.

SILVERBURN MAY NEED MORE TIME

SILVERBURN (39) clocked a very respectable time for a novice to win Sandown's Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle. On the clock he's as good as his brother Denman. And it's tempting to view the pair in exactly the same way. However I need to see him prove that he can produce this same level of performance on faster ground. I also want him to show that he can settle well enough to last two and a half miles. My gut feel is that he's greener than Denman was at this stage and may be even more suited to the bigger jumps than his brother. On the plus side his trainer seems to understand him very well so it looks like he'll be putting him in the right races at the right time. On balance though, I have to say that, in a season where there are so many smart Irish novice hurdlers, if this is the best the British have got then the big novice hurdles at Cheltenham are heading Ireland's way.

Silverburn did actually beat an Irish challenger home in PERCE ROCK (37) who is clearly very promising.

It may well be that Perce Rock's trainer Tommy Stack is right in saying that the horse was still not fully fit as he'd run a fair bit faster when finishing a somewhat unlucky fourth in the Cheltenham Festival Bumper. In addition he did seem to be going best turning in and may well have simply blown up through lack of fitness in the closing stages. I suspect he has a better chance of scoring at the Cheltenham Festival than the winner and look forward to his next run.

PAPINI IS SMART WHEN HE CAN GET TO THE LEAD

PAPINI (39) clocked a fast time to win the valuable ladbroke.com handicap hurdle at Sandown. But it seems clear from his form that he's unlikely to do well in the Totesport Trophy at Newbury if that race attracts more than a dozen runners as seems likely.

My read of Papini's form is that he is what American punters call a 'need to lead' front runners. That is, he will only run his best when he is able to get to the lead.

Papini did make all the running to win an ordinary novice hurdle with 14 runners. But he's been unable to get to the lead or win in five subsequent starts in fields bigger than twelve.

At two miles in a field of twelve or less Papini looks capable of being competitive with just about anything. So, if he were mine, I'd be steering him towards conditions hurdles rather than trying to exploit his admittedly lenient official rating in big handicaps where large fields are the norm.

MISTER POTTER IS A GOOD CHASING PROSPECT

The fixed brush hurdles at Haydock are midway between hurdles and fences in terms of how much they slow the runners down. So it's not surprising that races over the obstacles are mostly contested by chasing sorts like MISTER POTTER (36). Richard Lee's charge is a big, rangy, obvious future chaser who has already run over fences in a point to point. He blew home by 14 lengths over the fixed brush hurdles in very decent time.

I rather doubt that Mister Potter will be able to show the same level of form over normal hurdles. But when he switches back to fences or runs over fixed brush hurdles again he'll be hard to beat.

MY WAY DE SOLZEN'S WIN DIDN'T TELL US MUCH

The race between MY WAY DE SOLZEN (36) and TURKO (30) looked like being one of the highlights of the season. But sadly all it told us was that Turko can't jump fences effectively out of heavy ground. He made a series of blunders which enabled his rival to cruise home by a big margin in much slower time than the pair of them have run multiple times before.

Turko's poor run also raises the question of whether he can act on undulating tracks. Previously I'd thought his poor runs were caused by him needing to be fresh. But he was fresh here and it's worrying to note that he's now lost all five times he's run on undulating tracks but won five of the six times he's run on dead flat runs since losing on his hurdling debut. My inclination now is to see him as an Aintree rather than a Cheltenham prospect.

TOO FORWARD IS SMART IN SMALL FIELDS

TOO FORWARD (36) is a quirky horse. You just can't touch his mouth during a race according to his jockeys, and his record suggests he's shy of racing in a crowd. However soft ground tends to spread the runners out in a race enough to ensure he runs well in small fields. In fact he's now won five of the six times he's run in fields of ten or less on what I rate yielding or softer ground. His sole loss was a good second off a two year lay off when he ran all over the place - presumably because he was ridden harder than he likes.

Too Forward didn't have to be ridden hard at all to cruise home in his favoured circumstances in the valuable Unicoin Homes Chase at Cheltenham.

Too Forward has run faster than this (39 on my scale). Nonetheless he does look to be a bit hard to place. If he goes for the big Conditions races like the Ryanair Chase he's always likely to find one or two too good for him. If he goes for handicaps he's likely to find more runners than he's comfortable with. Still, in small fields and on soft ground he's a horse to have a lot of respect for.

REBELLIOUS SPIRIT SHOULD WIN AGAIN

REBELLIOUS SPIRIT (36) came back off a six month break to run much his fastest race over a mile at Southwell. And he improved markedly again when running away with a class 5 handicap over the same course and distance last week. Clearly he's a whole lot better than his official rating says he is. The plus is that last year his best form was on Polytrack. So it looks likely that he'll be able to follow up this win whatever surface he runs on next time.

VOY POR USTEDES SHOULD NOT BE CHAMPION CHASE FAVOURITE

VOY POR USTEDES (39) won the Desert Orchid Chase in decent style despite being prompted to jump left by the riderless Armaturk. But he continues to run no faster than he did as a novice chaser. And I suspect that he won't until he's stepped up to two and a half miles.

Most of the better jumpers by Voy Por Ustedes' sire Villez were better over two and a half miles plus. His dam was a stayer on the flat. Her sole win came at the longest trip she ever tried - 1m 7f. And the two other foals she's produced which placed over jumps both ran their best races at 2m 5f or more.

I can't understand why Voy Por Ustedes is now favourite for the Two Mile Champion Chase. On what he's shown I just can't consider him to be a viable candidate for that race. His pedigree and the way he always stays on so strongly prompts me to suggest that he'll only show the improvement most good chasers make from their novice careers when he's stepped up to two and a half miles or more.

I have a principle that I follow: 'A horse is at its best at the outermost limits of its stamina'. I reckon Voy Por Ustedes will be at his best over longer than two miles and hope to see him contest the Ryanair Chase not the Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.

LIMERICK BOY SHOULD WIN A BIG RACE THIS SEASON

22 months ago LIMERICK BOY (43) ran astonishingly fast to win a Grade 2 chase by a dozen lengths from subsequent Betfred Gold Cup winner Lacdoudal. Now he's gone and done it again by hammering the multiple Grade 1 placed ROYAL EMPEROR (37) by sixteen lengths at Haydock.

Royal Emperor tends to have jumping problems in big fields over fences and can get outpaced on fast ground. But he'd won seven of the nine previous times he'd completed the course on yielding or softer ground, and in fields of eight or less if it was over fences. So he figured to run to his best, which is what my speed ratings say he did - at least his recent best (he used to be faster when he was younger).

My explanation for Limerick Boy's failure to show this level of form all the time is that he dislikes undulating tracks. On undulating tracks Limerick Boy has lost all eleven of his jump starts. But on tracks without significant undulations he has won six of his nine completed starts. One of his losses was a smart second to Back In Front in the Grade 1 Champion Novice Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival. Another was his last start where he switched back to hurdles - and chasers invariably overjump and lose their first two runs when they return to hurdling.

On this run I would bet Limerick Boy to beat just about anything on a dead flat track. If he were mine the race I'd be shooting for is next month's Racing Post Chase.

Royal Emperor will be worth betting the next time he encounters a small field and soft ground below Grade 1 or 2 class.

JACK THE GIANT CLIMBS TO THE TOP

JACK THE GIANT (40) stretched his unbeaten run over fences to three by winning the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novice Chase at Kempton's Christmas meeting. In doing so he earned the joint highest speed rating I've given a novice chaser so far this term. He actually ran faster than last year's Arkle winner Voy Por Ustedes managed in a true run race over the same course and distance later on the card.

I suspect that jockey Mick Fitzgerald is right to say that Jack The Giant will stay longer than two miles. He's stayed on strongly in his races and got outpaced here before rallying to great effect. This extra stamina will stand him in good stead for the Arkle, a race that's often won by a horse that stays two and a half miles.

Trainer Nicky Henderson says that Jack The Giant needs good ground and my going allowance says that's what he raced on here. Good ground is often hard to come by between now and the Cheltenham Festival so I doubt that we'll be seeing much of Jack The Giant before then. However Nicky Henderson is brilliant at getting his runners fit at home, and he specialises in winning at Cheltenham's big meeting as much as he does over the Christmas period. This being so I have to rate Jack The Giant right up there with Pablo Du Charmil at the top of my short list for the Arkle and see the 20-1 being offered by Ladbrokes as plain silly. Then again Pablo Du Charmil is 33-1 which is even sillier.

I'm not yet sure what to make of the runner-up TWIST MAGIC (39). But I find it interesting that his three big UK runs have come on tight tracks while he's run absolute clunkers all three times he's run on galloping courses. This being so I have to conclude he's more of an Aintree than a Cheltenham or Punchestown prospect. Though I have to add that his one bad run on a tight track did come at Aintree - though I'm betting he had some sort of problem there as he was off for eight months afterwards.

It may also be significant that Twist Magic had won the last three times he's run on what my going allowances say was soft or heavy ground and lost the five times he's encountered a faster surface. Mitigating against this is the fact the ran really well on what I rated good ground here. In any event Twist Magic is undoubtedly one of the top novice chasers. I'd be wary of opposing him on a tight track but somewhat cautious about his prospects on galloping tracks or faster ground.

WICHITA LINESMAN A VERY SMART STAYING HURDLER

Novice hurdlers don't run much faster than WICHITA LINESMAN (40) did to win the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle at Newbury. This run makes him the one they all have to beat in long distance novice hurdles from now on. Quite why he lost by half a length at Cheltenham I can't say. Perhaps he needs a greater test of stamina which he got here thanks to much softer ground and a far stronger early pace. Certainly he stays very well and looks a future World Hurdle candidate.

SIR JIMMY SHAND (37) didn't run that far below the very smart form he showed on his previous outing to take second. He's an out and out chaser on pedigree, and his trainer Nicky Henderson says that anything he does over hurdles is a bonus. So there has to be some doubt that Sir Jimmy Shand is going to be capable of winning a Grade 1 over the smaller jumps. He is undoubtedly one of the better staying novice hurdlers though and will always be a threat in any race where stamina is at a premium.

HALCON GENELARDAIS NOT FAR OFF GOLD CUP CLASS

HALCON GENELARDAIS (40) won the Welsh National in very fast time. In fact my speed ratings say he would have got to within ten or fifteen lengths of the winner in the average Cheltenham Gold Cup on this run.

I can see why trainer Alan King says Halcon Genelardais is not likely to be suited to the Grand National. The horse's only loss in five chase starts came in the 30 runner Scottish National where he made repeated jumping errors - presumably because he disliked being crowded at the jumps. It seems more logical to take a shot at the Gold Cup which is apparently the plan.

King has expressed concerns about keeping Halcon Genelardais fresh in the past, so now that he's racing against experienced rivals I'd be wary of betting him for the rest of this season unless he's given a break of at least five weeks between his starts. With that proviso, I have to say he looks a very interesting horse right now. I can't dismiss his Gold Cup chances at this stage.

Runner-up MON MOME (39) is a very good horse to have an official handicap rating of only 136. He's won at the Aintree Festival, run second at the Cheltenham Festival and won four of his five completed chases when he's had a recent run (this was his sole loss). He'll surely be placed to win something big before long.

AMARETTO ROSE IS A SMART MARE

AMARETTO ROSE (37) ran away with a decent novice hurdle and is clearly a smart mare. This was her third wide margin win in four lifetime starts. Apparently her owners are keen to retire her to stud but I imagine they'll want to earn some black type with her first. She'll probably have to run against males to do that, but on this run she's well up to winning a Listed or Grade 3 novice hurdle.

KENZO III A CHELTENHAM PROSPECT

KENZO III (40) overcame a near two year lay-off to win a red hot handicap chase at Hereford. Trainer Nicky Henderson is a proper old-fashioned horseman whose patience has been rewarded with a performance that makes Kenzo III look a serious Cheltenham prospect. The obvious target would be the Racing Post Plate (formerly the Mildmay Of Flete) because Kenzo III will still be exceptionally well handicapped even if he goes up a couple of stone in the official ratings between now and March.

Kenzo III has already own over three miles, so longer races are clearly an option. But whatever he goes for I'd keep a close watch on him. Kenzo III looks nailed on to win a big handicap chase sometime this season.

Runner-up KALCA MOME (40) is a horse I've had several theories about in the past. But this run seemed to confirm that he's basically a soft ground specialist.

My read of Kalca Mome's form now is that he prefers soft or heavy ground, is best at 2m 3f or less, needs a recent run and over fences must have ten runners or less. He's won five of the last seven times he's met this combination of circumstances and will be a threat if he meets them again any time soon.

HOO LA BALOO (39) ran his best race by far since his riding tactics were altered. He'd run seriously fast over two miles as a novice when allowed to tear off into the lead at a furious pace. But towards the end of last season his trainer Paul Nicholls said "We think he's going to be a nice horse over two and a half miles next season so we wanted to start riding him differently." At first the new style of racing didn't seem to suit Hoo La Baloo. But the step up to 2m 3f here saw him return to his best. So it looks like Nicholls is right. Hoo La Baloo is going to be a nice horse over two and a half miles this season. Nicholls has also said that Hoo La Baloo "seems to need to go right-handed". This looks spot on as his four starts on left-handed tracks have been dreadful. At around two and a half miles on right-handed tracks I'd be wary of opposing Hoo La Baloo in anything but a championship level contest.

ALMAYDAN (38) equalled his best ever performance on my ratings to finish a close fourth. In doing so he proved that he does get longer than two miles. I reckon he's best on genuinely good or slower ground in fields of eleven or less. He's more than capable of winning a decent chase in these circumstances.

KAUTO STAR PROVES ME WRONG

KAUTO STAR (42) became only the second horse since Istabraq to win three Grade 1 races in the space of ten weeks when taking the King George. I honestly thought he couldn't do it but Kauto Star proved me wrong.

Putting a number on Kauto Star's performance is problematic. Race times and the Turftrax going stick readings indicate the going was the same on both days of the Kempton meeting. And the two mile chases on the second day came a whole lot closer to the standard times than Kauto Star managed in the King George. This means that logically I should award Kauto Star a really low speed rating of around 30 on my scale. But he did run a good deal faster than both the chases run on the 26th, so somewhat reluctantly, I'm going to assume that the ground speeded up on the chase course on the second day.

I'm not sure that Kauto Star beat that much here. So I remain skeptical of his prospects against the top Irish chasers, none of whom turned up for the King George. I want to see him run an unequivocally fast time before I start joining his fan club. The 6-4 available about him for the Gold Cup is plain daft in my book.

The one to take out of the race is probably RACING DEMON (39). It’s almost unheard of for a horse to win when it is stepped up to three miles for the first time in a Grade 1 non-novice chase like this. So he did well to finish third, especially since he didn’t settle in the early stages (often a problem when a horse goes a longer trip for the first time). He’s run as fast as the top Irish chasers and still has serious potential. This being so I think the 25-1 now being offered about his Gold Cup chances by Ladbrokes is way out of line

MONET’S GARDEN (25) almost certainly failed to stay the distance. He had won a couple of races at three miles and finished second in another. But there were all slow run races according to my speed ratings. The only previous times he'd really had his stamina tested were the occasions he was asked to run beyond two and a half miles at Cheltenham. These two runs are the worst in his record other than this run. Back over two and a half miles there are still big races to be won with this smart horse.

JAZZ MESSENGER PROBABLY NOT QUITE CHAMPION CLASS

JAZZ MESSENGER (40) won a weak renewal of the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton in Grade 2 class time. He keeps on running a bit faster but he has a mountain to climb to catch up to Detroit City and Hardy Eustace on the clock. In any event I suspect he’s always going to be best in small fields such as the one he met here. He’s been hampered the last two times he ran over hurdles in big fields and his jockey said after the race that he’s a horse who dislikes being crowded. No doubt this explains some of his past jumping problems. I can see Jazz Messenger winning more big conditions hurdles in small fields on the soft ground he seems to need. But the normal big field and fast ground of the Champion Hurdle would surely not suit him.

TROUBLE AT BAY ONE OF THE BETTER NOVICE CHASERS

TROUBLE AT BAY (37) was one of the best juvenile hurdlers a couple of seasons ago but had to be laid off for two years. He showed that he's as good as ever when winning on his chasing debut at Hereford and now ranks as one of the better novice chasers. The problem is that there are an awful lot of smart novice chasers around this season, especially at two miles which seems to be Trouble At Bay's distance. So he'll need to run a bit faster than this to get me enthused about his Arkle prospects. In non-pattern company though he's going to be tough to beat.

ECHO POINT COULD BE ANYTHING

ECHO POINT (39) ran away with a Sedgefield Novice Chase by 22 lengths. In all his races he’s charged into the lead and often pulled hard. So I rather wonder if he’ll get home on a track with a steep uphill finish at Cheltenham seeing that he didn’t seem to do so at Carlisle. Nonetheless this run marks him out as one of the better novice chasers. On a tight track I’d be wary of betting against him.

PALUA IS STILL GOOD WHEN IT’S GOOD

PALUA (38) is almost unstoppable at the minimum distance on a dead flat track when the ground is good. He needs these conditions to ensure he gets home. He had them at Wincanton over Christmas and he only just got beat in very fast time for the class. This is unfortunate as it must be hard to find suitable races for Palua. But from a betting point of view it’s great because the horse demonstrated that he’s as good as ever and well worth betting the next time he runs in a race on fast ground on a dead flat track at two miles.

PEARL KING (38) did awfully well for a novice to beat such a smart and experienced rival. He too clearly needs fast ground and two miles. In addition it looks obvious that he prefers to go right-handed. I guess he’s really more of a Summer jumper, but he’s fast enough to win something decent in the Winter if he gets his ground.

CUSOON IS GROUP CLASS

CUSOON (39) lowered the course record when he won a red hot 10f handicap at Lingfield. True, the track has been riding faster than ever this past week, but it was still a good Group class performance. Cusoon also earned a Group class speed rating from me the last time he ran and is clearly one of the very best horses currently racing on Polytrack.

The plan now apparently is to rest Cusoon until the flat season proper. This makes sense as five of his six wins to date have come in his first three starts off a break or with a five week plus rest. In addition he's been very lucky to experience such a strong early pace in his last two starts. The strong pace helped him according to his trainer Gary Moore, but it's far from being the norm on the Polytrack.

Cusoon had never shown anything like the level of form he's displayed in his last two starts on either Polytrack or grass before. So I'm inclined to believe he'll now be just as much improved on grass, providing he gets the firm ground he needs.

Having said all that, if I were Cusoon's owner I'd still be awfully tempted to bring the horse back in March and have a shot at the Winter Derby. He wouldn't need (or probably even want) a prep race seeing that he goes so well fresh. So that would mean he'd have three months off and have a major chance of taking down a big prize before at a time when the going on turf would probably be too soft for him.

Runner-up WATAMU (38) looked a very promising three year old in 2004 when he showed a distinct preference for fast ground and tight tracks. He showed that he is still as good as ever despite a break of over two years before this run. He too looks a viable candidate for the Winter Derby. Meanwhile he should be able to exploit what is clearly a laughably low official handicap rating.

Third-paled STARGAZER JIM (37) doesn't seem to handle soft ground or stay beyond ten furlongs. But at 8.5f to 10f he's run nothing but good races on Polytrack and firm turf. He ran fast enough here to win pretty much any AW handicap and will surely score again soon.

ATLANTIC QUEST (36) got into traffic problems which is the norm for him in fields of twelve or more around a turn. But he still ran close to his best. So he should have a big chance of winning the next time he hits a field of 11 or less.

TAMAGIN MUST WIN SOON

I'd been hoping that TAMAGIN (36) would step up to a mile at Lingfield as I felt sure it was his very best course and distance. He'd won over shorter but would have been unbeaten in three tries over the course and distance but for racing too keenly and getting beat a head on once occasion. So I was very pleased to see him running in a mere class 4 handicap over a mile on Lingfield's Polytrack last week. Back in April he'd earned a Listed class speed rating from me when winning over this course and distance. And he would have done so again had he not been hampered in the closing stages on his latest outing.

Sure enough Tamagin again ran a seriously fast time. But, after setting a searching gallop, he got caught by MINA A SALEM (36) close home.

Tamagin is a whole lot better than a class 4 performer. What's more he's improving, which is not that surprising since he was still only three when running here. If he runs over a mile on the Polytrack at Lingfield next time I wouldn't oppose him. I'd support him at Kempton too, but he's run three clunkers at Wolverhampton from three tries, so I'd be less keen on his chances there.

Mina A Salem is also a very smart horse and was almost certainly helped by the strong pace set by Tamagin. I say this because his previous fastest run came over ten furlongs on the same course. In a more normally run race I'm not at all sure Mina A Salem would be effective over a mile at Lingfield. I reckon he's basically a ten furlong horse

PERUVIAN PRINCE MAY NEED SMALL FIELDS

PERUVIAN PRINCE (36) posted a Listed class time when cruising home in a class 5 handicap on Wolverhampton's Polytrack. This was his third win in a row and he was beginning to look almost unstoppable in the low grade handicaps he's still eligible for until losing in a photo to JUST BOND (36) next time. But the ting is Just Bond is also very smart to be racing in such low grade races and would have won his last four Polytrack starts but for hanging and losing narrowly on one occasion.

Both Peruvian Prince and Just Bond should win again. However I do have one concern about Peruvian Prince, and that is his wins have all come in fields of nine or less. He's met traffic problems several times in bigger fields. This makes sense as he's described as 'compact' by Raceform and horses below average size tend to come off worst in the traffic that occurs in all races.

From a punting point of view I rather hope that Peruvian Prince now hits several races where a large number of runners line up. Then we can get a nice price about him when he returns to a small field.

CALIFORNIA LAWS TOUGH TO BEAT AT SOUTHWELL

CALIFRONIA LAWS (36) extended his unbeaten run at Southwell to three with a win in fast time last week. Clearly he's a smart horse on a slow surface like Southwell's Fibresand as his only other win came on heavy going on turf. The only real problem he faces now is that his handicap mark is getting high enough to exclude him from all but a few of the generally low grade races staged at Southwell. So his connections may be forced to run him on Polytrack, if only to keep him ticking over till another opportunity at Southwell arises. When he returns to the course I'd be wary of betting against him. And if the going is really soft in the Spring he'll be tough to beat when switching back to turf.

JIMMY THE GUESSER (36) pulled a long way clear of the rest to take second and seemed to appreciate the cut back to six furlongs. He should be able to win a similar race over the distance soon.