TWIST MAGIC HAS LITTLE CHANCE OF LASTING UP THE HILL AT CHELTENHAM

I confess that I can't stand short runners like TWIST MAGIC (38) because they're so hard to predict. They can win like Champions if they get away with setting an ordinary early gallop as he did when winning the Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot. But they tire badly and finish far back when they're pressed in the early stages.

In fact Twist Magic was tiring rather dramatically in the closing stages at Ascot despite being allowed a soft early lead. He came home from the second last in 32.4 seconds compared with the 31.7 seconds The Sawyer managed off a searching early pace in a four and a half furlong longer race later on the card.

At each of the last two Cheltenham Festivals Twist Magic has tired desperately up the final climb to the finish. I can't see why it should be any different this time based on the way he finished here.

MAMLOOK CAN WIN ANOTHER BIG RACE

MAMLOOK (38) looked set to cruise home in a Grade 2 handicap hurdle at Ascot approaching the last. But he has a habit of idling when he hits the front and did so again, eventually scoring by just two lengths.

It's pretty clear that Mamlook is always going to do best in really big fields as they ensure he gets plenty of cover and can be delivered late. It also looks clear that he's best fresh.

I've little doubt Mamlook will be laid out to win another big handicap hurdle again sometime in his next few starts. I doubt that it will be at Cheltenham as he's weakened rapidly and finished far back all three times he's run at the course. It's pretty clear he doesn't get home up the hill.

SPRINT FINISH PROMPTED BENSALEM'S FALL

Sprint finishes are all too common in novice chases. And for a three mile sort like BENSALEM racing over two and a half miles they can be a big problem. They get stretched into errors and often come down.

This is what happened when the paced picked up from six out to two out in the hot novice chase won by DIAMOND HARRY (35) at Haydock. Bensalem had trouble jumping at the increased pace and eventually crashed out with three to jump when his jockey asked him for a big leap as he and the eventual winner kicked on.

Most likely Bensalem would have only finished second by around three to five lengths had he stood up. But in a more strongly run race he might well have given Diamond Harry as big a fight as he did a year ago over hurdles when running him to half a length.

Bensalem's fall was rather reminiscent of the way Captain Cee Bee crashed out at the last when looking set to beat Sizing Europe. What would have been a relatively minor error at normal speed propelled him into the ground at the fast pace he was traveling.

Assuming he recovers in time from the swollen knee he incurred from this fall I see Bensalem as a serious contender for the RSA Chase.

Diamond Harry will be in the RSA Chase too and is clearly going to be tough to beat once more. He jumped well here and coped with the sprint finish far better than his rivals to score by sixteen lengths. For a horse that stays three miles he certainly has plenty of pace and remains a terrific prospect. He's run a good deal faster than this before off a stronger early pace.

MEDERMIT PROBABLY BEST IN SMALL FIELDS

When he won for the first time in a minor provincial hurdle at Nantes MEDERMIT (40) had to overcome traffic problems and an objection from the half length runner up who he'd hampered. He himself got hampered when a neck second in the Supreme Novices last year. He's only a medium sized horse and does seem to have trouble fighting his way through big fields. Indeed if that objection at Nantes had gone against him he would have lost all six times he's run in races with more than a dozen runners.

This is worth bearing in mind when assessing Medermit's impressive win in the Champion Hurdle Trial at Haydock. Yes he showed a good turn of foot to beat last year's Champion Hurdler PUNJABI (38) four lengths. But how is he going to cope with the much bigger field he'll face in the Champion Hurdle?

Medermit always seems to need his first run off a long break but now he's fit he's clearly in top form. If, as I suspect, he gets beaten at Cheltenham I'd bet on him bouncing back in a smaller field at Aintree or Punchestown.

I liked the way Punjabi's jockey looked after his mount once Medermit ran away from him. This suggests strongly he's being trained to peak for the Champion Hurdle where I'd bet on him finishing in front of Medermit. History shows you should respect any Champion Hurdler that attempts to win the race again. They often succeed.

OISEAU DE NUIT HAS REAL SHOT IN GRAND ANNUAL

I was impressed with the way OISEAU DE NUIT (39) came clear off a scorching early pace while still moving strongly to win a good two mile handicap chase impressively at Ffos Las.

So far Oiseau De Nuit has run in five two mile chases on tracks a mile and a half or more in circumference and won all five times. One of his wins came at Cheltenham, so he will surely be going for the Grand Annual at the Festival where I'd give him a serious shot on my ratings.

SMART CHASE DEBUT BY MAD MAX

MAD MAX (39) won a fast run novice chase at Kempton on his debut in good style. This giant of a horse pressed the pace or led all the way and jumped well apart from one error two out. He always looked to be holding the runner up from before the last and was still traveling strongly crossing the line.

So far Mad Max has only lost one of his six starts. This was last year's Ballymore Properties at the Cheltenham Festival. That was the only time he's been asked to tackle a really steep uphill finish, and it looks like the breathing problems that he'd exhibited previously was the cause of his bad run there. Now that he's had a second breathing operation it could be he'll come up the hill this time around. But if he were mine I'd be inclined to keep him for Aintree or Punchestown instead. That said Mad Max clearly has any amount of ability. And he's so strongly built and stoutly bred he will surely stay much more than the two miles of this race.

MAHONIA (37) is another horse that's been revived by a breathing operation. And he ran a second big race in two chasing starts here. So far he's been unlucky to come up against two red hot fields in ungraded races this term. He's good enough to win a Graded novice chase around an easy track at two miles and looks sure to win soon.

DEE EE WILLIAMS (23) was most disappointing. He didn't seem happy being asked to jump the fences at the terrific pace they were going. He kept slowing up running into them and went out a bit to the left to put himself right rather than popping them or standing off.

Either Dee Ee Williams needs to go up to a longer trip or he needs to race on tracks that aren't dead flat like Kempton. This latter explanation certainly looks quite possible. After all he's lost and run below form all five times he's run on dead flat tracks but won three from five on other types of courses, running second to very smart sorts in his two losses. It could well be he needs the undulations to break up the gallop.

Dee Eee Williams has shown form that would give him a shot in Grade 1 company several times. I see him as a very interesting longshot for something at the Cheltenham Festival - maybe even the Arkle.

BRIXEN A USEFUL PROSPECT

A lot of decent horses contested the seven Bumper races run at Southwell last week. So it's significant that BRIXEN (36) clocked a much faster time than any of them.

I thought initially that Brixen's superior final time might have been due to a stronger early pace and that some other horse might have clocked a faster final 12f, 10f, 8f or 6f in another race. But this wasn't the case. Wherever you start the clock she came home quicker by a good margin.

Brixen is a good sized, three mile chasing sort that shows a bit of knee action. She made the running, wound up the pace steadily after passing the winning post for the first time, then really opened up from three furlongs out to stretch right away from her rivals.

Give her stride pattern I'd anticipate Brixen needing cut in the ground to produce this form on grass. Her physique also suggests she'd benefit from a step up to two and a half miles or more. I note with interest that she's entered in an upcoming 2m 5f mares only novices hurdle. I reckon she could do very well in that sort of race this term and even better in mares only novice chases next season.

MONEY ORDER IS SMART

When he won a good three mile handicap hurdle at Chepstow MONEY ORDER (38) ran the last two miles a second quicker than the winner managed in the Grade 1 Finale Juvenile hurdle on the same card. The performance definitely tags him as at least a Grade 3 horse, possibly better.

The way that Money Order rallied so quickly and readily after stumbling at the last suggests he has a bit of improvement in him.

Most horses lose their hurdling debuts. They also tend to take two runs to get their eye back in over the smaller jumps when they've been chasing. Toss out Money Order's hurdling debut, his first couple of runs back after going chasing and that sequence of three chases where he lost confidence in his jumping and his remaining form shows five runs and five wins.

Clearly Money Order is a very useful staying hurdler whose official handicap mark is likely to still under-rate his ability by a big margin after this win. It is not yet proven that he needs it soft. Indeed he won a chase from the useful Carnival Time on what race times indicate was good ground. This being so I have my eye on him to win a big handicap hurdle, quite possibly at one of the Festivals, in his next couple of starts.

Runner up STRATEGIC APPROACH (38) is also interesting. He'd bolted up by eight lengths the only previous time he'd run three miles and pulled over thirteen lengths clear of the rest of a big field in his efforts to hold off the winner. He too looks very interesting for a valuable handicap hurdle sometime soon given his low official rating.

CARRUTHERS TOUGH TO BEAT IN SMALL FIELDS

It was a smart idea to change Newbury's Mandarin Chase from a handicap to a Conditions event. Back in the old days it used to be one of the top chases of the season due to its prestige and timing. But the change from being an open handicap to one restricted by ratings led to a big decline in quality. Now it's looking worthy of Graded status.

This year's Mandarin served as a good demonstration that sometimes the quantity of runners is just as important as the quality because it featured two key horses whose form seems to be determined by this very factor in Big Fella Thanks and Carruthers.

If you've ever watched CARRUTHERS (41) race you'll know he invariably charges to the front, sets a pace that looks almost unsustainable and just keeps on going. That's what he did here. The jockey on Niche Market was unwise enough to take him on and his mount paid the penalty by tiring badly to finish last.

The keys to Carruthers are the ground, the distance and the number of runners. He's by Kayf Tara, one of the best two and a half mile horses on the flat in recent years. Kayf Tara acted well on soft ground. His dam is the out and out mudlark Plaid Maid. Plaid Maid's last three chase wins came on heavy ground and her best performance over fences came when she ran second in the Devon National over a furlong and a half short of four miles.

It's understandable that Carruthers seems to have almost bottomless stamina and loves soft ground. So far he's won on what race times indicate was yielding or softer ground six times out of nine over two and a half miles plus.

The reason Carruthers has lost three times when getting his ground and distance is that he probably cannot handle a big field. He's below average size and gets crowded into jumping errors in big fields. In addition he's such a gung ho front runner he gets pressed to go too fast in big fields.

Throw out his hurdle runs in fields of seventeen or more and his chase runs in fields bigger than six and Carruthers' remaining form figures over two and a half miles plus read 111111.

Most likely Carruthers can handle a bigger field than six over fences. He was after all a good second to the top class What A Friend in a seven runner race. My ratings suggest he's good enough to win a Grade 1 in a small field with cut in the ground.

BIG FELLA THANKS (33) is the polar opposite of Carruthers in the he must have a big field.

Watch the video of the race Big Fella Thanks lost at Taunton six runs back and you'll see why. It's clear he was wanting to pull himself up when he was marooned in the lead a long way out in that race. His jockey had to ride like a demon to keep him going. It was no big surprise to hear trainer Paul Nicholls say afterwards that Big Fella Thanks was best in big fields for this very reason.

So far Big Fella Thanks has won all four times he's completed the course in fields bigger than twelve below Graded class and lost all six times he's run in smaller fields. He might well have won the only time he tipped up in a big field too. Quite where the cut off point for him is hard to say. But a five runner race around Britain's second widest and longest course (after Aintree) guaranteed he was going to see far too much daylight to produce his best. So he ran a very good race to finish an admittedly distant second.

Last season Big Fella Thanks ran a terrific race to finish sixth in the Grand National as a novice chaser. Now he's got more experience he must rate as one of the better prospects for the race this year - as long as his weight can be kept under what nowadays seems to be the critical mark of 11-2. That means not winning or running a really big race between now and then. This shouldn't be a problem though as few races other than the Aintree marathon look likely to suit him.

TAKE THE BREEZE A USEFUL NOVICE CHASER BUT ...

TAKE THE BREEZE (37) lost all thirty of his starts on the flat, including seven claiming races, and ended up with an official rating of just 57. But his pedigree suggested he was always likely to do better over jumps. His dam's only previous winning foal scored over fixed brush hurdles and her four winning siblings were all decent performers over jumps.

Sure enough Take The Breeze has improved massively over jumps. But it seems he needs soft or heavy ground. He got it when romping the Halloween Novices Chase at Newbury in fast time.

Take The Breeze has now won the last five times he's encountered what race times indicate was soft or heavy ground over jumps. He certainly looked impressive at Newbury where he set a searching pace and ran his rivals ragged. And I'm sure he would have run a bit quicker if he hadn't been allowed to coast on the run in.

However I wouldn't go leaping to the conclusion that Take The Breeze is a good thing to take the Arkle at Leopardstown next time out if he gets his ground. The stiffer fences to be found in Ireland just have to be a concern after the way he jumped here. He doesn't have the size or scope of a typical chasing sort and basically hurdled his fences here. He made an almighty hash of the last despite being under no pressure at all. With stronger opposition to press him at Leopardstown I can see him coming unstuck over the stiffer fences there.

I'm not keen on the chances of Take The Breeze in the Arkle at Cheltenham either. The ground is unlikely to be slow enough for him, and I have a hard time seeing him being happy jumping in such a crowded field or lasting home after being pressured for the lead as he would be there. Aintree doesn't seem a much better option as the fences are so stiff. So on balance I suspect Take The Breeze is a horse to oppose for now and remember for next season when he hits a field he can dominate from the front over easy fences on soft ground.