EXTRAORDINARY RUN BY NOLAND

NOLAND (40) put up an extraordinary run on his chasing debut at Folkestone, equaling the biggest speed rating I've given a novice chaser all season despite never coming under serious pressure.

Over the first couple of jumps MANHATTAN BOY (16) was going a bit too fast in front. Two of the other three runners, Polinamix and Rustarix, were being niggled along to try and keep up as a result. But Noland was simply loping along, keeping tabs on the leader with seemingly very little effort at all.

Manhattan Boy slowed marginally but still kept on in the lead at a good clip till paying the penalty and tiring from three out. At this point Noland ambled into the lead, cruised clear and his rivals could do nothing about it. Approaching the last he began to idle in front and Ruby Walsh could be seeing rowing along a bit to keep him going from there. But Noland always had his ears pricked and passed the post still moving comfortably.

Normally when a novice chaser clocks a fast time they've gone an even pace throughout. It's rare they can do so when they've been asked to jump at speed in the early stages as Noland was here. They tend to waste a good deal more energy jumping fences at a strong pace than more experienced chasers and tire as a result. Noland didn't. And this was because he jumped like an old hand.

Some idea of how fast Noland ran here can be gained from using a stopwatch. This reveals that the time he clocked from twelve fences out was 14.1 seconds 17.7 seconds respectively than the other two chases on the card. Okay those events were over longer trips, but I'd estimate the margins would have been no more than eight seconds if Noland was of similar class to the other two winners - which clearly he isn't, he's massively better.

One thing this race made clear is that Noland has abundant stamina. The early pace was strong and the going was heavy. Yet he came home like it was simply an exercise gallop at home.

Seeing Noland race here I got the strong impression that he's going to prove best over three miles when the going is faster. He's a big, long striding sort whose strong suit looks to be stamina not speed. Nonetheless I can't forget how he stayed on so strongly to win the Supreme Novices over what looked an inadequate trip. And the Arkle is often won by a horse that stays longer thanks to the strong early pace and stiff track. It looks like he won't be stretched into mistakes over two miles judged by how well he jumped at speed here, so I now have to rate him the one they all have to beat at Cheltenham.

MANHATTAN BOY (16) won six of the first seven times he ran on yielding or softer ground with his sole loss being a good second to the top international performer Quijano. Now that he's racing over fences though I rather wonder whether he gets home on softer going seeing how badly he tired badly here.

It could be that Manhattan Boy will do better if he's held up in future, as he was when running a promising third on his chasing debut. Perhaps he just went off too quick here. But my feeling from watching this race is that he needs a faster surface to last two miles over fences. It may also be he needs a tight track too. In any event I don't think he's lost any of his ability and still see him as a likely winner of a big race sometime in his next few starts.

Runner-up POLINAMIX (36) should be franking this form soon. But it's clear from the way he got outpaced early and stayed on late that it was only the strong pace and heavy ground which pulled him into this race over two miles. He was beaten 63 and 74 lengths the two times he'd run the minimum National Hunt trip previously on faster going. Over two and a half miles plus he's won two out of his three completed starts and run second to the useful O'Maley in his sole defeat. Back over that sort of trip he ought to be winning again soon.

CLASSY DISPLAY BY CLASSIC FIDDLE

CLASSIC FIDDLE (38) maintained Nicky Henderson's 40% strike rate with Bumper winners going short distances on their chasing debuts when scoring at Fontwell. And it was a very classy display she put up.

After a decent early pace the field actually quickened from four out, coming home 4.1 seconds faster from that point than in the other novice chase on the card. Only Classic Fiddle and RUSSIAN AROUND (38) were able to keep going at this speed. But the way they were able to sustain such a powerful finishing effort for over half a mile was most impressive. It saw the pair pull well clear of the rest in what looked Cheltenham class performances both visually and on the clock.

Classic Fiddle still has a bit to learn about jumping fences. Her current way of putting herself right at a jump is to run down the fence to the right. This is a pretty common trait with novices. Eventually she'll learn to put in a short one or stand off and jump from further away from a fence than she's prepared to at present.

On this run Classic Fiddle ranks as one of the best chasing mares in training. But it looks like she won't be taking up her engagement in the Sun Alliance Chase. Despite her stout pedigree she's going to be kept to much shorter trips for now according to connections. This is how I'd play it too because the only loss Classic Fiddle has suffered in six starts to date was in the only two and a half mile race she's contested that was run at a decent pace. It could just be she doesn't truly stay that far, though only time will tell. For now she looks an interesting candidate for the Punchestown Festival which is her big target.

I had thought that Russian Around was a great bet to win at Kempton on his previous start. But it turned out that he couldn't cope with the cut back in distance to two miles. He was scrubbed along the whole way and allowed to come home in his own time from the second last.

In his previous race the early pace had been slow. So it developed into a sprint finish between the high class Acambo and Russian Around who were surging well clear of the eventual winner Triggernometry when they fell upsides each other at the last - basically because they were both going much to fast to judge the fence properly.

DON'T OVER RATE AIR FORCE ONE

In my experience pundits tend to go overboard when a much touted horse with few miles on the clock wins by a big margin. This looks to be the case with AIR FORCE ONE (35) who blew home by 39 lengths in a novice chase at Fontwell.

He's now widely regarded as one of the best novices and is at short odds for the Sun Alliance Chase. But this is as fast as he's ever run on my ratings, and I don't think he can run much faster.

You could argue that the 2m 6f Air Force One ran is a rarely run distance at Fontwell and this has led me to assign an erroneous standard time. But sectional times strongly suggest I've got the rating right. Air Force One took 4 minutes 45.1 seconds from the thirteenth last fence. That's 4.2 seconds slower than in the other novice chase over half a mile shorter.

For comparison Preists Leap jumped the last eleven fences exactly three seconds slower than J'Y Vole did when winning at Gowran Park over half a mile less and she jumped them exactly three seconds slower than Nickname did over another three furlongs less. So a gap of about 3 seconds over the last two miles or so seems right for roughly similar class races that are half a mile apart in difference. 4.2 seconds is 1.2 seconds more than 3.0 more or 0.6 seconds per mile, and that's exactly the difference my ratings suggest between Air Force One and Classic Fiddle, the winner of the other novice chase.

You might also argue that the form book comments for Air Force One include the words 'heavily eased' and that he'd have run significantly faster but for this. In fact he was shown the whip after the last and even after the dog leg on the run in with less than 100 yards to go. He wasn't actually eased until the last twelve strides. The absolute maximum you could allow for this would equal no more than three lengths or a point on my speed ratings. So I think Air Force One is actually a few lengths off the top novice chasers. This looks to explain why he's lost the seven most valuable contests he's contested (including six pattern races) and won the last six minor events he's run in.

THEATRE GIRL CAN REVERSE FORM WITH CHOMBA WOMBA AT CHELTENHAM

CHOMBA WOMBA (38) has improved a bit this season according to my speed ratings and extended her unbeaten streak for new trainer Nicky Henderson to three when taking a Grade 2 mares hurdle from the smart THEATRE GIRL (38) at Doncaster.

The race developed into a match from three out and saw the first two power away from the rest of the field. There was very little in it at the line, both mares having shown a fine turn of foot.

Chomba Womba earned the biggest speed rating I've ever given her here. And I rather suspect that's because she was cut back to two miles. She's won over longer, but it does look significant that the only three races she's lost in her last nine starts were all over two and a half miles. She's won the last four times she's gone shorter. This being so I think she's too short at 4-1 for the big new mares race over two and a half miles at the Cheltenham Festival.

Theatre Girl is bigger than Chomba Womba, and I think this may be why she showed less respect for the hurdles here. If she'd jumped more cleanly I think the result might easily have gone the other way. Long term she looks a terrific chasing prospect. Right now there are few if any better mares over hurdles. I continue to think she'll stay two and a half miles without a problem seeing how strongly she's finished in her last two starts. If she lines up against Chomba Womba therefore I'd prefer her chances.

UNGARO LOOKS SET TO WIN A BIG HANDICAP CHASE

No two horses are exactly the same. But AN ACCORDION (39) does seem to be doing a rather good impersonation of his half brother Horus.

Horus was at his best when fresh and racing on relatively flat tracks. An Accordion seems similarly inclined. He's lost all three times he's run at Cheltenham but won three of the four times he's run elsewhere, each time on one of his first two completed starts of the season or with a five week plus break thereafter.

An Accordion apparently took so much out of himself when running at Cheltenham last January that he had to be laid off for the rest of the season. And he finished distressed when having to be pulled up on his seasonal debut this term at Ascot. Clearly he's a sensitive flower. He's also 'still a big baby' as his owner noted after his latest win in the Skybet Chase. In this contest he ran green on the run in but still rallied strongly to get up late in a race where the first three were all still full of run at the finish.

The big plus for An Accordion is that he's in the same stable as Horus and has already shown similar preferences to that one. So his connections know how he needs to be trained and what tracks to avoid. Obviously he now needs a break of at least five weeks and shouldn't be run at a really stiff track like Cheltenham or Sandown.

Runner up UNGARO (38) looks somewhat easier to place. He earned a Grade 1 class speed rating from me over hurdles and took the Grade 1 Feltham Novices Chase last season. So he looks remarkably well handicapped on a mark of just 143. He seemed certain to win as he went into the lead moving strongly with two to jump. But despite running powerfully to the line and finishing full of run he was somehow just run out of it by the winner.

It seems to me that Ungaro's strong suit is stamina and that he ran so well here because it's the first time all season he's been in a long enough race that was run at a strong enough pace to suit him.

Ungaro's trainer believes that the horse is best going right-handed and needs fast ground to jump fences effectively. This makes sense as he does apparently jump a bit to the right and is a bit smaller in stature than the average chaser (smaller horses do tend to need a bit of bounce in the ground to jump fences).

It may be that Ungaro will get his ground in the Racing Post Chase. But I'd say his best chances of big race success this season lie in the Irish Grand National or the Betfred Gold Cup. Both races are run over marathon distances on right-handed tracks, and they often take place on fast ground.

MA YAHAB (38) has no business staying three miles given his flat race pedigree. But he's clearly well suited by the distance. He improved markedly to beat the useful Negus De Beaumont when stepped up to the trip last time and kept on really well to finish a close third over the distance here. Given his obvious stamina I'm not sure he'll be suited by switching back to novice chases as they so often feature a slow early pace. It could well be he'll do best if continuing to campaign in valuable handicap chases such as this as they are invariably run at a strong early pace.

BIG BUCK'S A THREE MILE CHASER IN THE MAKING

I though KRUGUYROVA (38) was a good thing to beat BIG BUCK'S (39) in what was effectively a match between the pair at Newbury. I figured that Big Buck's would have real difficulty keeping tabs on the mare over such a short distance and that she'd stretch him into jumping errors.

It certainly looked that way in the early stages as Kruguyrova set her usual strong pace. But on reflection I should have figured that this might put enough of an emphasis on stamina to bring Big Buck's into it, and that's exactly what happened. He gradually wore her down and ended up winning by a couple of lengths.

The soft ground and strong pace made this race ride more like one over two and a half miles. And the trainer of Big Buck's, Paul Nicholls, clearly shares my view that the horse would get outpaced on faster ground over such a short trip in the Arke. He plans to switch him back to hurdles and step him up to two and a half miles for the National Spirit Hurdle at Fontwell. After that, like me, he sees Big Bucks staying three miles over fences.

I suspect that Big Buck's won't be able to beat My Way De Solzen in the National Spirit Hurdle. But he's established himself as one of this season's fastest novice chasers and is surely going to win something decent sooner rather than later.

Kruguyrova ran a bit below her best here. And I rather wonder whether she really gets home on a big two mile oval like Newbury. In any event she's a very smart and consistent mare that looks likely to develop into one of the best two mile chasers.

THE GREY BERRY HAS TERRIFIC ACCELERATION

THE GREY BERRY (6) is one of my favourite horses because he earned a whole string of Group class speed ratings from me on the flat and looked capable of proving competitive in top company. I'm not surprised he fetched 340,000 guineas at the Horses In Training Sale. But I was concerned about his prospects of winning on his hurdling debut at Southwell.

My concern was that with only seven runners The Grey Berry would see too much daylight and pull too hard to last home. It turned out that he did because the early pace was very slow indeed, so slow that they took eleven seconds longer to run the two miles than in the other two hurdle races over the same trip.

Up the straight however, The Grey Berry showed just why he cost so much by producing a sustained burst of speed to power home from the second last in 28.1 seconds. That's over two seconds faster than Laredo Sound managed in the other division of the novice hurdle and quite some feat considering he was running more than two furlongs at the end of two miles.

The Grey Berry was in fact traveling so fast that he was a bit hesitant jumping the last two of the fixed brush hurdles. But he simply powered away to win cruising with any amount in hand.

I rather suspect that trainer Peter Hobbs is right to say that The Grey Berry will do better at Aintree than in the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham. It tends to take a horse with stamina rather than pace to win the Triumph, and pace is undoubtedly The Grey Berry's main asset. It is also worth bearing in mind that The Grey Berry will have a bit more experience of hurdling by the time he gets to Aintree. Having said that I think it's worth bearing in mind that it's very rare indeed for a juvenile hurdler to have shown as much ability as The Grey Berry did on the flat. His sheer class might just see him home at Cheltenham.

From a betting standpoint I rather hope that The Grey Berry does fail to last home up the hill at Cheltenham. That would ensure he'd start at a good price at Aintree where I find it hard to see any juvenile withstanding the turn of foot he can produce in the closing stages.

KNOCKARA BEAU A FUTURE THREE MILE CHASER

You don't often see a horse clock a decent time in a Bumper because the runners invariably go a slow early pace. They did so in the Bumper won by KNOCKARA BEAU (34) at Kelso on his racecourse debut. But the heavy ground made even the steady pace pretty testing and the field picked up the gallop markedly from fully one mile out.

Knockara Beau was always going much the best and cruised into the lead with fully half a mile left to run. It was pretty remarkable to see all his rivals being ridden along vigorously so far out while his own rider was still sitting motionless. He had to get a little busy as JIMMY THE SAINT (32) came out of the pack to mount a sustained challenge up the straight. But he was never in any danger and passed the post still full of running to earn one of the biggest speed ratings I've given a Bumper winner all season.

Kncokara Beau is a proper old-fashioned chasing sort who looks built for three miles over fences. He shows plenty of knee action too, so I wouldn't want to be betting him on fast ground. Long term I've little doubt he'll make a useful staying chaser. He probably wouldn't get the cut in the ground I think he needs if he went for the Festival Bumper but next season he's going to be interesting in staying novice hurdles or chases.

Jimmy The Saint couldn't get the winner on the stretch no matter how hard he tried. But his persistence saw him pull well clear of the rest in a performance that would probably win eight Bumpers out of ten. I'd bet on him franking this form next time.

WILL FRANCHOEK LAST HOME IN THE TRIUMPH?

Until he won at Cheltenham last week I had all but ceded the Triumph Hurdle to FRANCHOEK (36). Now I think he's vulnerable. In this race he set or forced a strong pace throughout and stormed clear from after the second last. But on the run in he started to tire and his rider had to get busy to keep him going. Yes he ended up winning by six lengths. But he came home from the last 0.7 of a second slower than they did in the big three mile hurdle on the same card. And the way he tired hurt his final time, which was slower than that of the handicap hurdle.

I now have a concern about whether Franchoek will last home in the Triumph off the searching early pace that race is normally run at. Adding to my concern is the way he tired in the last furlong the only time he's so far run beyond two miles and a furlong. This was on his hurdling debut where he was fully fit from a string of recent flat races and jumped perfectly adequately. It just seemed that the extended distance found him out as he tired pretty badly in the last furlong to finish a pretty distant third having looked a likely winner turning into the homestraight.

Franchoek earned a speed rating of 39 from me when winning at Chepstow last time. That's huge for a juvenile hurdler. But will he run that fast in the Triumph or will he tire late and get caught? My inclination now is the latter.

TATENEN (23) ran a dreadful race here, having previously established himself as one of the very best juvenile hurdlers. It looked to me that he positively hated the finishing hill because he looked to be going best of all until then. Meeting the rising ground he stopped to nothing.

Perhaps Tatenen is simply an immature horse that needs to be fresher than he was here. More likely, being a big chasing sort he's never going to be fully effective over the flimsy hurdles we have in Britain and Ireland. He won both his starts over the stiffer fixed brush hurdles they have in France and looks an exciting prospect for novice chases next year. Trainer Paul Nicholls clearly favours this explanation as he apparently now plans to rough Tatenen off till next year when he'll bring him back in novice chases. No doubt he'll excel in that sphere. But having seen how badly he faded up the uphill finish here I'm still going to be very wary about betting him on stiff tracks till he's proven he can handle them.

KHYBER KIM PROBABLY NEEDS IT SOFTER

KHYBER KIM (29) was desperately disappointing when a moderate fourth at long odds on for the Grade 2 Rossington Main Novices' Hurdle at Doncaster. He was going well enough turning in but couldn't go with the principals over the last two.

The best explanation I can come up with is that Khyber Kim is an unsound horse that needs cut in the ground. He did win his racecourse debut on fast ground. But he's had training troubles since,. So it looks significant that he's won both times he raced subsequently on what my going allowances say was genuinely yielding or softer ground and lost all six times it was faster. It also looks significant that Khyber Kim's wins have all been on dead flat tracks. Unsound horses usually prefer flat tracks because they hit their legs harder on the downhill sections of undulating courses.

Khyber Kim put up a huge performance to win in very fast time from Theatre Girl. That one franked the form on the same card here, so clearly Khyber Kim really is as fast as he looked first time over timber. I'd bet him to beat any novice hurdler on soft ground on a flat track. But his Cheltenham Festival chances are now looking decidedly wobbly as he won't like the track or the likely going if my analysis is correct.

GODFREY STREET SHOULD SWITCH TO LINGFIELD

I've mentioned the amazing early pace possessed by GODFREY STREET (37) before. He could run with just about anything for four furlongs but needs a very easy track or a soft lead to last five. His pace won him the Group 2 Flying Childers Stakes as a two year old. Last week it took him into the winners' enclosure again, this time for a lowly claiming contest at Southwell.

On this occasion there were just four other runners, so it's not surprising Godfrey Street came home well clear to lower the track record. Normally I don't think he'd last home over five on this track. Usually there's a bigger field and the other runners would press him too hard for the lead.

So far Godfrey Street has run four times in single figure fields over five furlongs. He's won three of those four times and only got caught late by half a length in his sole defeat. The problem is there aren't many five furlong handicaps with single figure fields. Therefore I think Godfrey Street's best immediate chance of further success is at Lingfield, where the one in 63 downhill gradient from the six furlong mark is probably what's helped him last home to win both times he's run five furlongs at the course.

DON'T DISMISS NEARDOWN BEAUTY IN LISTED RACE AT KEMPTON

I awarded NEARDOWN BEAUTY (37) a Listed class speed rating for the second time in a row when she came with a late surge to win in fast time at Southwell. You could argue that it's the switch to Fibresand that's improved her. But my bet is it's her new trainer. So when she steps up to Listed company at Kempton next time I wouldn't dismiss her chances lightly.

HORA SHOULD SET UP A WINNING SEQUENCE

Over the years we've grown used to seeing Sir Mark Prescott exploit earn low handicap marks earned in sprints in a string of stayer's races. He looks set to do this once more with HORA (37) who blew home in Listed class time to take a two mile class 6 handicap on Southwell's Fibresand by no less than seventeen lengths.

If Hora can show the same sort of form on Polytrack or grass she'll be capable of earning back type. But I see Prescott currently has her entered up for two more races on Fibresand, so we're going to have to wait a while to see if she can run this well on another surface. I suspect she can.

FROMSONG CAN WIN AGAIN AT KEMPTON

Polytrack was designed to be kind to a horse's legs. It also tends to produce slow run races that place less stress on their cardiovascular systems. So it's not surprising the surface seems to have a knack of reviving the form of old horses. This appears to be especially true of Kempton which seems to have a slightly deeper surface than the other Polytracks.

The latest old horse to bounce back to form on Kempton's Polytrack is the ten year old former Group racer FROMSONG (36) who clocked a very decent time when winning a five furlong handicap.

Fromsong has now won both times he's run five furlongs on Kempton's Polytrack and lost the last 26 times he's run elsewhere. It could be he's best dominating small fields from the front over the minimum distance as he did here and will reproduce the form on another Polytrack in these circumstances. But the percentage play is probably to wait till he runs at Kempton again before betting him to repeat this performance.

WHISPERED PROMISES WILL MAKE A SMART NOVICE CHASER

I was impressed with the performance of WHISPERED PROMISES (37) who ran a close third to FIVE DREAM (37) in a good handicap hurdle at Cheltenham.

Whispered Promises has the build of a steeplechaser, and, like a lot of such horses, he has the size to simply smash through the hurdles rather than jump them properly. He did this at the first two flights. Thereafter jockey Tom Scudamore booted him into every jump. As a result he stood off every time and cleared them all with room to spare. He made the running and kicked on from the second last but was soon joined and then outrun by the winner before rallying late when that one tired.

Right now all the best form of Whispered Promises has been on really stiff tracks. However in the Totesport Trophy there'll be a huge field. So they'll probably go such a strong pace Whispered Promises won't need to make his own running in an effort to offset his lack of pace. I can see easily see him turning this form around with the winner and going close there. However in the long run the future of this classy looking horse clearly lies over fences. He already jumps like a chaser and is certainly built like one. I see him as a serious candidate for next season's Arkle.

MALJIMAR NEEDS TO BE FRESH

MALJIMAR (38) won a good Grade 3 Chase most impressively at Cheltenham, simply running away from his rivals after two out. However I wouldn't run away with the idea that this makes him a certainty for his next start on March 1st at Newbury. There's less than five weeks between the Cheltenham and Newbury races and Maljimar's record strongly indicates that he needs at least six weeks between his runs.

With a bit of racing luck Maljimar might well have won the last six times he's come into a race following a break of 42 days or more since his last run. He's lost all five times he's been returned to the races more quickly.

I'll be betting that Maljimar won't be fresh enough to reproduce this form at Newbury. But he won this with a fair bit in hand and looked like he could have run quicker if pressed. So next time he comes into a race off a break of six weeks or more I'll be wary of opposing him.

NACARAT who had been so impressive when winning at Wincanton on his UK debut had to be pulled up behind Maljimar. But he actually looked a possible winner when he moved through to dispute the lead with seven to jump. He was moving better than anything bar perhaps the eventual winner at that point. However this race was run on faster ground than the Wincanton contest, and the fences at Cheltenham are quite a bit softer judged by the percentage of fallers that they claim. This meant the horses could jump them a bit quicker which didn't seem to suit Nacarat at all. He dragged his back legs through the seventh and did so with much worse results at the eleventh. He twisted in the air there as his back legs caught the birch heavily and it looks like he wrenched his back muscles. I say this because he just couldn't rise properly at the next and his jockey quickly decided to pull him up.

I reckon that Nacarat is best jumping at a slower pace than they cleared them here. He needs really big fences, really soft ground or a longer distance to slow things down.

The alternative explanation for Nacarat's poor run here is that he needs to be fresh. He's a narrow, light-framed sort, so this makes perfect sense. He's won the last four times he's come into a race off a break of five weeks or more and lost all six times he hasn't. I'm convinced that steeplechasers that need to be fresh often jump poorly when they aren't because they've burned up the glycogen supplies that fuel the 'fast twitch' muscles they use when jumping.

Either way, seeing how he almost certainly wrenched his back here, Nacarat now clearly needs a rest. I'd like to see him put away until Aintree and brought back for the Topham Trophy where I'd fancy his chances.

FAASEL DOESN'T REALLY STAY THREE MILES

Before he took the Cotswold Chase last week KNOWHERE (35) had won five of his six completed starts at trips short of three miles when he'd been fresh - that is on his first two runs of the season or with a five week plus break thereafter. Knowhere was fresh for the Cotswold Chase but the distance was three miles, one and a half furlongs. So I drew a line through his name without hesitation as he looked a certain non stayer.

The problem with my reasoning is that I hadn't taken the possibility of a slow early pace into account. Knowhere had gotten home in the Hennessy despite not being fresh, when the time to halfway was almost seven seconds slower than it had been the previous year when adjusting for the difference in going. Here the early pace was a great deal slower than that.

In fact Knowhere ran the last 2m 5f of the Cotswold Chase a full seventeen seconds slower than Maljimar took to run that distance in the Grade 3 chase on the same card. The field hunted around for the first circuit and the pace didn't actually quicken until approaching the twelfth. From there to the third last the field fairly sprinted along, covering the distance in 1m 44.9 seconds compared with 1m 47.2 in Maljimar's race. Unfortunately that was just a little bit too quick. The near sprint stretched several runners into mistakes and eventually took its toll, causing the field to tire from between the last two. From the third last to the finish they actually went 1.5 seconds slower than Maljimar did.

We saw a similar situation in the Lexus Chase where Denman proved best suited to the sprint and may very well have not been the best horse in the race.

Here there's no question that Knowhere was not the best horse in the race. He was simply the one best suited to the way the race was run. As I see it the bookies have got it right in marking him up at 100-1 for the Gold Cup. Unless they go really slow in that contest like they did here I just can't see him getting home. And it seems hugely unlikely that they will go this slow.

That said, when Knowhere cuts back to less than three miles and comes into a race fresh once more I'd rate his chances against just about anything.

OUR VIC (33) looked the likely winner before they met the rising ground. But we all know what happened to him in the same race last year. He simply died up the hill. Here the early pace had been slow so he didn't tire as badly. Clearly though he failed to get home once more and there's no way he's ever going to stay three miles plus on a stiff track like Cheltenham. Equally though if he's kept fresh for the Ryanair Chase as he was last year he should once more go close over the shorter trip.

NEPTUNE COLLONGES (31) ran a promising race on his seasonal debut considering that his trainer has said repeatedly that the horse dislikes Cheltenham. He's run below form all four times he's run at the track but won eleven of his fifteen completed starts elsewhere, earning seriously big speed ratings from me in the process.

I guess there's no real harm running Neptunes Collonges in the Gold Cup. He can at least be used to ensure a good pace for his stablemate Kauto Star. But his best chance of future big race success surely lies in a bid for a repeat of last year's win in the Guinness Gold Cup at Punchestown. I'm not yet sure whether he's really suited to the tighter turns of Aintree given his one slightly sub-par run there over hurdles.

STATE OF PLAY (15) needs a strong pace according to trainer Evan Williams. That certainly seemed to be the case when he got outpaced when the sprint for home began in the Lexus and was confirmed when the same thing happened here.

State Of Play's two big wins over fences have come in handicaps featuring huge fields that generated a searching early pace. Clearly he was badly affected by the sprint here. Though Williams did remind us afterwards that State Of Play is also best fresher than he was here as well. All the horses wins have been to what I call the rest pattern. That is on his first two completed starts of the year or with a gap of at least five weeks between his completed starts thereafter.

Williams plans to give State Of Play 'a nice long break' and bring him back in a handicap hurdle. That makes sense because handicap hurdles tend to be run at a stronger pace than Conditions chases and State Of Play's last handicap mark was over fifty pounds below his current chase rating. Personally I'd be inclined to bring State Of Play back for the big three mile Conditions Chase at the Aintree Festival and send him into the lead at a strong pace. This tactic produced a runaway win for the horse at the 2006 Aintree Festival and could easily do so again as he's bang there with most of the top three mile chasers according to my speed ratings (other than Kauto Star of course).

Until I watched him run here I had thought that the reason Faasel tends to lose in small fields is that he dislikes seeing too much daylight. However a more likely explanation now is that he's not very good at quickening up off the slow early pace small fields tend to produce over jumps. Here he was niggled along and lost his position when Neptunes Collonges quickened the pace briefly approaching the eighth. Then, when Neptunes Collonges began that long sprint from the twelfth to the third last, Faasel was left floundering and had to be pulled up within a couple of fences.

Faasel has failed to win in twelve jump starts where there have been less than ten runners. He's won five of the ten times he's run in bigger fields over hurdles or fences and run big races in four of his five defeats. Next time he runs in a field of ten or more I wouldn't dismiss his chances lightly.

MADISON DU BERLAIS (29) was another horse that got totally outpaced in the sprint between the twelfth and third last fences. I think he stays three miles no problem but is better suited by the stronger early pace that you tend to get over shorter trips. In longer races I think he'll always be best suited by handicaps as the early pace is usually stronger in them.

BILLYVODDAN (30) ran perfectly well to take fourth considering the ground was clearly too soft for him. He's probably not quite up to this level anyway. He's lost all seven Graded races he's contested but would have won six of the last seven times he's completed the course on what I rate yielding or faster ground in Listed or lower class if one photo had gone the other way.

SIMON was given reminders when the pace quickened from the twelfth and was probably stretched into blundering two jumps later and unseating his rider by which time he was actually moving well. I suspect he wouldn't have won if he'd stood up as he often loses his position on undualting tracks like Cheltenham and has scored all his six wins on flatter courses. He's smart on such courses so looks set to be a big player in the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup at Haydock in a couple of weeks.

TWIST MAGIC WILL HAVE TROUBLE WINNING AGAIN THIS SEASON

I just couldn't understand why TWIST MAGIC (32) was an odds on favourite for the Grade 1 Victor Chandler Chase. He's never earned better than a Grade 3 class speed rating from me and I'm convinced he's a short runner that needs a slow early pace or tight turns to last even two miles.

Twist Magic won the Tingle Creek off a slow early pace on his previous start. But here TAMARINBLEU (38) set a strong gallop. And sure enough Twist Magic was out on his feet by the second last.

It's most unusual for any of the top two mile conditions races to be run at a slow pace like the Tingle Creek. So, seeing that there are no more Graded two mile chases run on tight tracks this season, I'd be very surprised to see Twist Magic win again before next term. As I see it, anyone who takes the 9-4 about him winning the Champion Chase at Cheltenham is barking mad.

It was a shrewd move on the part of Tamarinbleu's connections to get their horse to set a strong pace. It exposed Twist Magic's lack of stamina and enabled Tamarinbleu to win a class of race he really ought to have no business winning.

Tamarinbleu is, as everyone knows, best fresh and has now won six times out of twelve when he's come into a race off a break of five weeks plus since his last start. But, although this was a smart run, I really don't think he's up to winning at the top level again, so the short prices offered about him winning the Champion or Ryanair Chases look stingy. Tactics won him this race not genuine Grade 1 ability. He simply hit the same Grade 3 speed rating he has many times before in a race where faster rivals weren't able to produce their best for one reason or another.

MANSONY (27) ran well below his best to finish a distant third on the kind of ground he's won on half a dozen times before. He ran below his best on his only previous start in Britain as well. Maybe he doesn't like traveling. Perhaps he's best over the stiffer fences to be found in Ireland. Whatever it is, I'm going to oppose Mansony with some confidence next time he ships to Britain. But I'm not going to forget that he would have won the last seven times he's run less than two and a half miles in Ireland but for tipping up with one race won.

I'm prepared to forgive SCHINDLERS HUNT (19) his poor display on the grounds that it was the first time he'd been taken along at such a strong pace over fences. A lot of ex novices take a while to adjust to the quicker pace that experienced chasers go. You only have to look at how the pace collapsed in the Lightning Novices Chase on the same card to see what happens when they are made to run this fast. In time I'd bet on Schindlers Hunt showing his good novice form against the best two milers.

MAHOGANY BLAZE GETS INTERESTING FOR AINTREE

MAHOGANY BLAZE (19) has yet to run a pattern class time. But lines of form indicate he would have earned a rating of around 37 from me if he hadn't gone off so fast causing the pace to collapse in the Grade 2 Lightning Chase at Ascot.

It looked a good tactical decision to take on the hot favourite Marodima for the lead because that one clearly had trouble jumping the first four or five fences at the speed Mahogany Blaze was forcing him to go. Mahogany Blaze on the other hand jumped really well at speed and looked to have Marodima and everything else cooked when he kicked on into a 12 length lead with three to jump. Unfortunately he'd gone just a bit too fast.

Normally novice chasers have trouble going anything like the early pace that more experienced chasers can - not because they can't go that fast but because they're less efficient jumpers and waste a lot more energy than a more experienced horse when clearing a fence at serious speed. We saw the effect of that here. Mahogany Blaze and Marodima would have reached the fourth fence less than two lengths behind the trailblazing Tamarinbleu if they'd run against him in the Victor Chandler Chase. They reached the seventh fence five and a half lengths behind and tired steadily from there to finish thirty three lengths slower (I'm counting a length as a quarter of a second here, which is how lengths are officially calculated in British jump races).

If Mahogany Blaze hadn't blundered three out I'm sure he would have held on instead of losing by a short head to WEE ROBBIE (19).

It seems to me that Mahogany Blaze has stamina problems and showed them here. I reckon he is best at two miles on relatively easy tracks and doesn't really get that far on courses with steep uphill finishes like Cheltenham. He also seems to have trouble lasting home when there's a big enough field to ensure a searching pace. It's not surprising he tired off such a strong pace on soft ground here. But if the photo had gone the other way he would now have won five of the six times he's run two miles on easy courses in fields of 13 or less. This makes him look a very interesting proposition for the Grade 1 John Smith's Maghull Novices' Chase at the Aintree Festival. Hopefully he'll run in the Arkle beforehand at Cheltenham because he's yet to finish within fifteen lengths of the winner in four tries there (because the track is too stiff for him if my theory about his lack of stamina is right). A bad looking loss in that contest should build his odds nicely for Aintree.

Wee Robbie has earned ratings of 36 and 37 in the past from me and would surely have done so here in a more normally run race. He looks to have a real chance of improving on his third place finish in the Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.

WORKING TITLE A CHELTENHAM CANDIDATE

Normally it's not a great idea to bet any horse on its hurdling debut. But Nicky Henderson does do rather well with his Bumper winners when he starts them off over timber at two miles. He's won 15 times out of 40 in these circumstances over the last dozen years and you'd have made a good profit just betting his runners of this type blindly. It was therefore not that surprising to see his Bumper winner WORKING TITLE (37) romp home on his first start over timber at Fakenham.

Working Title simply cruised along on the tail of the leader Saint Kadette (25) as her jockey pushed her to set a fast pace in an effort to get away from him. All she ended up doing was exhausting herself. She was under pressure with more than half a mile to go. At that point Working Title was steered past her, ambled further and further ahead, was slowed up by Fitzgerald to pop the last and then cantered home up the run in to win full of running.

It's hard to tell that much about a horse from a single easy win like this. The only thing I really got from the run is that he'd prefer a more galloping track as he wobbled for a stride or two exiting one of the tight turns. To learn more I went back and studied how Working Title performed when taking a Bumper on his only previous start.

That race took place on firm ground and was run at a very slow pace indeed. His jockey, Mick Fitzgerald, was clearly keen to find cover to prevent the horse pulling, as inexperienced horses do when they see too much daylight in a slow run race. Every time the slightest gap appeared he pulled him back in behind runners as he raced in fifth place. moving well.

Working Title coped well when the pace quickened at the end of the backstraight. He was still obviously going much the best. But Fitzgerald's tactics meant that he was bottled up on the rail with absolutely nowhere to go. When they turned into the straight the field was fairly sprinting and there was still no gap available to Working Title. With a quarter mile to run therefore his Fitzgerald yanked Working Title around horses and switched him to the centre of the course. He ran around a bit from there but lengthened impressively to outsprint his rivals to the line. He ended up going clear close home where he was really flying. I've no doubt that he'd have been a wide margin winner if he'd got out earlier.

Working Title has a long, daisy-cutting stride, and a proper national hunt physique. So it was pretty amazing that he was able to sprint the way he had to when taking his Bumper. It was also surprising that he was able to cope so well with soft ground when winning at Fakenham. Horses with stride patterns like his invariably prefer fast ground, and Nicky Henderson has indicated he believes this to be the case with Working Title.

Working Title has now been able to win off a very slow pace and a fast one. He's come from behind and also pressed the leader throughout to score. He's won on firm ground and on soft. And despite the wide variation in conditions he's had a great deal in hand at the end of both his starts to date.

Judged by his physique and pedigree Working Title's future lies in steeplechase over two and a half or perhaps three miles (there's a bit of doubt on both counts that he'll get three). Right now though he's showing plenty of speed at two miles over hurdles. So I'm not sure whether he needs to go up to two and a half miles. If he were mine I'd throw him into a Graded novice hurdle over two miles next time out to help decide whether he should go for the Supreme Novices or the Ballymore Properties at Cheltenham. He might well turn out to be good enough to win one of those contests. Certainly I'd be wary of opposing him next time, especially if he gets firmer ground and runs on a more galloping track.

MONEY TRIX COULD HAVE RUN A LOT FASTER

MONEY TRIX (31) didn't clock a particularly fast time when winning a valuable Graduation Chase at Newcastle on his first run in nearly two years. But that's because the early pace was slow in his race. They steadily accelerated from halfway, making up 5.5 seconds on the time the novices clocked earlier on the same card from the ninth fence and 3.4 seconds over the last four fences.

It's hard to say just how fast Money Trix would have run in a truly run contest. But lines of form indicate he would have run a rating between 37 and 40 in a true run race. He's earned a speed rating of 39 from me before. So, seeing the way he made up so much time so easily on the novices I'd say this was a pattern class performance.

Money Trix is a big, good-bodied classy sort that looked a tremendous prospect when running second to Black Jack Ketchum in a Grade 1 at the Aintree Festival on his previous start. I don't think he's lost any of his ability and would be wary of betting anything to beat him a three mile plus novice chase. Having said that I'm not at all sure the Sun Alliance Chase is the right race for Money Trix. His pedigree, physique and form all indicate that he probably needs a bit of cut in the ground and you don't often get that at the Cheltenham Festival nowadays.

WEE FORBEES BEST OVER SHORTER TRIPS

WEE FORBEES (36) won a three mile hurdle a few runs back when he was given a soft lead. But he stopped when forced to go a stronger pace over the trip in his next two outings. This being so I'd say his trainer was right to say 'this is his sort of trip' after Wee Forbees made all the running at a strong pace to win a novice chase over 2m 3f at Catterick.

Those two losses at longer trips are the only losses Wee Forbees has experienced in his last five starts. Over shorter distances I think he's going to prove rather useful judged on this display. He jumped boldly and went a pace that forced many of his rivals into jumping errors yet still had plenty left in the tank at the finish.

There aren't many novice chasers who can jump well at speed, so I'd bet on Wee Forbees winning more races this season.

BINOCULAR HAS A SERIOUS TURN OF FOOT

It's frustrating for compilers of speed ratings like myself when the early pace is too slow for a horse's final time to indicate its true level of ability. This was undoubtedly the case with the win scored by BINOCULAR (29) at Ascot on his hurdling debut. Lines of form indicate he'd have run a rating of around 36 in a true run race though, and my gut feel is that's right. This indicates he is one of the better juvenile hurdlers.

The jockeys were understandably reluctant to let their mounts go off too fast on the soft ground. But they overdid it. The result was that the race turned into a sprint from the second last hurdle. This can be seen from a comparison with the Listed hurdle over 3.5 furlongs longer won by Lough Derg on the same card. In that race they took 34.5 seconds to reach the finish from the second last. Binocular took just 27.4 seconds.

Binocular certainly showed impressive acceleration here, so I suspect he'll be very well suited by faster ground, as most horses with a serious turn of foot are. In the long term I've little doubt that he'll make a decent chaser. Unlike the vast majority of juvenile hurdlers he's got the build to do well over fences. Indeed his dam has only had two other foals to race and one of them (also by a flat sire like Binocular) has already won a two and a half mile chase.

NEARDOWN BEAUTY SHOULD WIN AGAIN SOON

NEARDOWN BEAUTY (37) has a reputation for being an ungenuine horse because she carries her head high and has run close umpteen times without winning. But her new trainer Alan McCabe says her head carriage is due to physical problems. And the mare certainly looked to go through with her effort when winning a good seven furlong handicap at Southwell in fast time.

Neardown Beauty came through from last to win this race smoothly. Now we're left to wonder whether she showed such improved form because it was her first try on Fibresand or because McCabe has improved here. My bet is the latter, so I believe Neardown Beauty will probably follow up this success next time whatever surface she runs on.

ALONSO DE GUZMAN VERY WELL HANDICAPPED

ALONSO DE GUZMAN (36) clocked a time that indicates he's worthy of an official rating around 90 when scoring at Wolverhampton. But he's still going to be running off a mark of less than 70 following this win. So I'd bet on him adding to three wins he's already scored on the Poly this Winter soon.

THE OLD PRETENDER IS SOMETHING SPECIAL

THE OLD PRETENDER (37) strolled home on his racecourse debut at Huntingdon in one of the fastest Bumper races we've seen in recent years. In a race run at an unusually strong pace he was always going the best. Indeed he was going so well that fully half a mile out jockey Paul Maloney was stealing glances at this rivals.

Maloney soon kicked on with The Old Pretender, but after riding him along for half a furlong you could see he was wondering where the other horses had gone. Maloney looked first over his right shoulder then his left and even ducked down to look through his legs. Clearly he found it hard to believe that his mount had scooted into what was a twelve length lead so quickly. He decided to stop riding thereafter and allowed The Old Pretender to simply coast through the last furlong or so. Nonetheless he still won by eighteen lengths in pattern class time.

The Old Pretender is built and bred for chasing and could easily be a Cheltenham Gold Cup prospect if he translates this sort of form to fences. His trainer, Carl Llewellyn expressed an aversion to running the horse on firm ground in an interview earlier this season, and my experience tells me that trainers usually know a horse's going preference. However, I should add that The Old Pretender doesn't show much keen action and the best relatives on his sire and dam's side all acted on fast ground. In addition his dam's only other foal, a full brother to The Old Pretender, ran his best race to date on the fastest ground he's encountered (good to firm). This being so I wouldn't want to put anyone off taking the available 16-1 about The Old Pretender for the Cheltenham Festival Bumper. He might just be good enough to take that race even if it is run on the fast ground that normally prevails.

Next season I suspect The Old Pretender will go straight over fences seeing that his pedigree and physique point so strongly to him excelling in that sphere rather than over hurdles. In any event he looks to be one of the best prospects we've seen all season.

FLEET STREET WANTS LONGER

When it comes to judging a horse's best distance from it's physique I have a saying; 'longer neck, longer back, longer stride means longer distance'. So when I watched FLEET STREET (36) devour the ground with his huge stride to win a novice chase at Leicester I couldn't help thinking that he would be suited by longer than the two miles he was running over. The way that he stayed on so strongly to surge clear from the last reinforced this idea.

I know that all of Fleet Street's seven placed efforts on the flat in Germany came at trips short of a mile. I know there's absolutely nothing on either side of his pedigree which suggests he'll stay more than the minimum distance. I know that he ran an absolute clunker the only time he tackled two and a half miles. But the physique of the horse, his relaxed way of running and the way he finished so strongly off a very good pace here all tell me that he'll do best over two and a half miles not two. The fact that trainer Nicky Henderson plans to enter him for the 2m 5f Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham as well as the Arkle suggests that he shares my opinion.

Fleet Street still has a bit to learn about jumping fences. He set off in a clear lead. But when he started to lose concentration out on his own his jockey allowed the others to catch up to him so he'd have some company. This didn't really work because he was then hesitant at several jumps, seeming to get put off by the other horses racing alongside him. When he was asked for a big jump a couple of times though he really flew, taking off a long way from the jump and landing far out on the other side. Clearly he can jump brilliantly and just needs more experience.

On his only previous chase outing at Plumpton Fleet Street jumped out to the right all the time. So it was probably a smart move to run him at right-handed Leicester here. He seems okay going left-handed over hurdles. So if he returns to the smaller jumps for the Totesport Trophy or Imperial Cup I'd be interested in his chances. He's earned ratings as big as 39 from me in the past and definitely looked like he could have done so here if he'd been up against better opposition and had more experience of chasing.

The race I'd prefer for Fleet Street is the Imperial Cup because it's on a right-handed very stiff track. If he's going to win something big at two miles it will surely be that race. Further down the line I'd like to see him running over two and a half miles at the Punchestown Festival. I know he ran two clunkers at that meeting last year but there was surely something wrong with him there.

WILL JACK THE GIANT HOLD HIS FORM?

JACK THE GIANT (39) blew a couple of my theories out of the water when winning the most valuable race ever run at Leicester, the Jelson Homes Quality House Builders Since 1889 Chase. The first one was the idea that he doesn't stay two and a half miles. The second was that he needs to be fresh.

Jack The Giant was always going best in a strongly run race and powered away up the straight to score by six lengths from the useful FUNDAMENTALIST (37).

Now I have a new theory about Jack The Giant. I see a seasonal pattern to his form. He's won all seven of his jump starts before March but lost all five from March onwards. I'm betting that, rather like Central House, he has trouble holding his form through the season.

My new theory may turn out to be just as wrong as the previous two. But it's the only way I can explain those two remarkably sub par runs Jack The Giant has put in at the Aintree and Punchestown Festivals. He had the good ground he needs both times yet ran way below form.

The other explanation for Jack The Giant's seeming loss of form in the Spring is that he's tackled high class race over two miles in that period. It could well be, judged on this run, that he actually needs two and a half miles plus and is stretched by the pace of championship events at the minimum distance.

I certainly agree with jockey Mick Fitzgerald that Jack The Giant could jump the National fences. He jumped really well and really safe here apart from measuring the last wrong when apparently put off by the crowd.

I now have a new theory about the runner up, Fundamentalist as well.

Fundamentalist won in seriously fast time over a similar distance on his previous start and would have been an impressive winner again here but for bumping into a top class rival. It seems to me that he doesn't really stay three miles and is best in small fields like this over fences. Toss out his chase runs in big fields and he might well have won all his other previous starts over a very stiff two miles or longer trips short of three miles but for jumping errors and verring badly in another race.

BUTLER'S CABIN (32) was outpaced all the way. But he jumped really well and stayed on up the straight to finish a distant third. He's won really big chases both times he's run marathon distances and looked every inch a Grand National prospect here.

BRONSON F'SURE (28) also looks like he wants longer. He set a searching pace, presumably to make it a real test of stamina. But he tired from four out. He rallied a bit as his stamina kicked in. But he's a great big, strong, deep-chested sort who surely needs three miles plus. Indeed he's won three of his four completed starts at three miles plus, finishing second in his sole loss. Over shorter trips he's failed to reach the first three seven times out of seven. He's yet to run a fast time but he's won the last three times he's gone a longer trip by a wide margin and has the physique of a good horse.

As for IRON MAN (23), he faded badly to finish a long way behind. It does look like he's basically an off season horse that loses form during the Winter. Since joining Peter Bowen's yard he's won four of his seven starts at less than three miles from May to mid November. From late November to April he's only reached the first three once in eleven starts - and that was a distant third place finish at the Perth Festival very late in April.

BALLYMORE PROPERTIES LOOKS WRONG TARGET FOR GROUP CAPTAIN

GROUP CAPTAIN (36) was impressive when taking a novice hurdle at Taunton because he made two big moves in the race - something only a high class horse can do. First he kicked away from his field with three to jump, quickening up off a relatively slow gallop to outpace everything except I PREDICT A RIOT (34). Then, just as that rival looked set to challenge him approaching the last, he kicked again and left him for dead on the run in to win cruising.

The target for Group Captain at Cheltenham is apparently going to be the Ballymore Properties. I think that's a mistake. Winning off a modest early gallop on a tight course against inferior rivals is one thing. Going a furlong and a half longer on a very stiff track against the best novice hurdlers is another.

The Ballymore Properties normally goes to a proper national hunt sort, one that started its career in Bumper races or point to points. Yes there have been six former flat racers that won the race in the last two decades. But five of them scored over the Leger trip or longer on the flat. Group Captain tired to finish unplaced all three times he ran that far on the flat. His chief weapon is not stamina but the smart turn of foot which he used to such good effect here.

It's also worth bearing in mind that Group Captain was only borderline pattern class on the flat. So far he's lost all seven times he's run in pattern company and won four of the last five times he hasn't. I can see him breaking his duck in a Grade 2 or 3 contest while he's facing the weaker competition to be found in novice races. But I'd bet on it being over a trip a good deal shorter than the 2m 4f of the Ballymore Properties unless it's on a tight track or in a smallish field off a slow early pace.

On the plus side Group Captain looks to be amazingly sound, versatile and consistent. I don't think he's good enough to win at the top level, but he always runs his race.

I Predict A Riot ran a huge race on what was his hurdling debut. He was the only one able to go with the winner when he broke clear with three to jump and he rapidly pulled 25 lengths clear of the rest as he tried to get on terms. I'd bet on him improving off this effort and find it hard to see him getting beat in an ordinary novice hurdle next time.

GIDAM GIDAM MAY PREFER SMALL FIELDS

GIDAM GIDAM (36) put up an odd looking performance to win a Leicester Novices' chase on the disqualification of the short head winner SHERIFF ROSCOE (36). He disputed the lead to the eleventh fence but was already losing ground when a mistake there sent him to the back of the field. From there he was being scrubbed along, and initially he dropped further and further behind. Between the last two fences however he staged a rally and though racing a little awkwardly (he looked a bit unbalanced and inclined to hang) he ate up the ground on the run in and would have won in another stride.

Horses that respond to sheepskin cheekpieces like Gidam Gidam are often those that dislike big fields. In this regard I note with interest that Gidam Gidam has won five of the last six times he's run in races with eleven runners or less but scored just once in seventeen tries in bigger fields. Until he proves me wrong I'm going to bet against him in fields of twelve or more. In smaller fields like this though he's clearly a decent novice chaser.

Sherrif Roscoe moved best the whole way. He had to be put under pressure entering the straight but that looked more due to greenness than tiredness to me. He closed steadily from there, led on the run in and narrowly held the late rush of Gidam Gidam who he apparently impeded very late in the race.

Sheriff Roscoe moved well all the way here and looked pretty classy. He's now passed the post first all three times he's run on galloping tracks and lost all nine times he's run on tight courses. It may simply be that he's been wanting longer trips and will act on tight tracks fine over three miles plus (this was his first try at such a trip). In any event he looks likely to prove competitive in decent races.

PORTLAND BILL (36) is pretty decent. He's presumably been kept to right-handed tracks for most of his starts for a reason. Indeed he's run below his best every time he's gone left-handed. I don't think he'll ever win anything big because he looks too one-paced. But I'd bet on him winning quite a few three mile chases before he's retired.

NUMIDE LOOKS A VERY SMART RECRUIT

NUMIDE (35) clocked a very decent time when coming from far back to win on his hurdling debut at Leicester. And he would undoubtedly have run a fair bit quicker if the early pace had been stronger. They reached the fourth in his race 6.7 seconds later than they did in the handicap hurdle later on the card but quickened markedly from there to record the same final time. Numide himself was really surging in the closing stages. He fairly charged up the run-in, finishing out the race 3.1 seconds faster than the winner of the handicap hurdle.

STARTING POINT (36) won a strongly contested novice hurdle in pattern class time. Last season he ran fourth in one of the fastest Bumper races run in recent years a Newbury and followed that effort up with two easy wins.

Two runs back Starting Point hosed up in a Bumper race by 23 lengths. He looked set to win by almost as far on his hurdling debut till making a hash of the last and losing a lot of momentum. What was impressive about his performance there was how he managed to get going again so well on the soft ground to win full of running.

Watching those races it was hard to tell just how good Starting Point was because he was so far ahead of the rivals he's met that he had to make all his own running - something he didn't look too happy about (he started to run green when he was out in front for too long).

Here Starting Point's jockey decided to forget about looking for something else to give him a lead and kicked on right from the start. He jumped well as he was going his own pace but it carried him 25 lengths clear of his rivals by the third flight, so his jockey decided to let him slow down a bit, allowing his rivals to get closer. Thereafter he didn't jump so well and clattered through most of the flights. He kept going strongly though and rallied well when the runner-up BEST PROSPECT (35) challenged him from the last. He was actually starting to get rolling again and building into a comfortable rhythm towards the finish. This is shown by the fact that he came home from the last 3.9 seconds faster than Bywell Beau did in the handicap hurdle. So I'd say he'd have no problem at all stepping up to two and a half miles.

Right now Starting Point's two big problems are that he doesn't have much respect for his hurdles. He's a big strong chasing type and can get away with smashing through them, so he does. He'll probably only jump better when he goes over fences. His other problem is that he runs green and idles in front and would surely appreciate a lead. He's probably not going to get it as long as he's kept to ordinary novice company which seems to be the plan for his next couple of runs.

Best Prospect ran a big race on his hurdling debut. As ever he cruised up to the winner, looking as though he could pass him at will coming up to the last. But he's a fiendishly hard horse to win with. Like Harchibald he has to be delivered in front right on the line. So it can hardly have been to his advantage that he was running on the hurdles track with the longest run from the last of all British courses.

Best Prospect ran Group class times on the flat and has any amount of ability. He's a very tricky ride though, so it's going to be hard for him in novice company as he'll generally be much the best horse in the race and will inevitably find himself in front way before he wants to be. If he were mine I'd run him in handicap hurdles where the stronger opposition and faster pace would give him more cover and enable him to be delivered later.

CHARLIE TOKYO (27) ran a promising race, moving up threateningly before tiring late. His trainer Richard Fahey just doesn't win with hurdling debutantes outside of the flat season. He's now run 59 horses over timber for the first time between November and April in the last dozen years and they've all lost. The assumption has to be that Charlie Tokyo wasn't fully fit for this run (something substantiated by the way he drifted in the betting). I'd therefore bet on Charlie Tokyo improving markedly for this run. If he can run to something like his smart flat form he'll be a very useful novice hurdler.

BYWELL BEAU SHOULD WIN AGAIN

BYWELL BEAU (37) is clearly suited by a short distance at Kelso. He's run four times on the course over two and a quarter miles or less and won every single time. His latest success before last week was a 23 length romp in a Grade 2 contest. So it was rather hard to see how he got away with an official rating of only 136 in the valuable Morebattle Hurdle.

Bywell Beau had to fight a lot harder for victory than he ever had before because his opponents wouldn't give him an easy lead. They pressed him to go 2.2 seconds faster than Starting Point had in the novice hurdle to the third and three seconds faster between that flight and the third last. It's hardly surprising that he got headed after that. But he showed tremendous determination to get back up at the last and gradually edge clear on the long run in under a hard drive. He took 3.9 seconds longer to get home from the last than the novice which shows how tough a battle this was.

Bywell Beau is built like a chaser. But muscle damage caused during his gelding operation means that he's always going to jump out to his right. This doesn't affect him much over hurdles but it probably cost him victory in his only chase two runs back.

I think it would be a smart move to go with the trainer's instincts and send Bywell Beau back chasing. Fences force the runners to go slow just as tight turns do, so I think he wouldn't need a tight course like Kelso over fences, just a right-handed one. He's certainly got a lot of ability. So I'd be interested in Bywell Beau's immediate prospects whether his connections opt for a chase on a right-handed course or try to exploit his still very lenient handicap mark on a tight hurdles course.

FIRST LOOK (36) ran a big race on his first run back over hurdles. I'm not sure that he'd reproduce this run in a more normally run contest over two miles. The searching pace and heavy ground looked to bring his stamina into play. German breds like him often do best at longer trips and his record reflects this, as does the way he ran here. I'd want to see First Look go two and a half miles next time. If he does I'll be interested in his chances on soft or heavy ground.

MOHAYER (35) looked a certainty as he headed Bywell Beau and cruised into a two length lead running up to the second last. Jumping that one though the strong early pace told and he started to run around and looked pretty much legless. He did well to keep on to finish a pretty close third seeing how tired he was. I'm not quite sure what circumstances suit him best. But it seems that he needs soft ground and the way he tired here indicates he'd do better in a more slowly run race. Therefore I'd like him best around an even tighter track or in a smaller field.

WILL ROYALS DARLING HANDLE A BIGGER FIELD?

ROYALS DARLING (36) has always had a lot of ability. And his big size means he's long looked a decent chasing prospect. Sure enough he won on his chasing debut at Kempton in decent time. However I need to see him do well in a bigger field before I'll risk money on him. His trainer, Nicky Henderson, says that he's rather timid. And this certainly seemed to be the case here. After whacking the fifth last, an open ditch, he was wary of the next which he also hit hard. Thereafter he had to be driven along to keep tabs on the runner-up Presenting Copper (32) who he is a fair bit superior to. Eventually he got going properly and beat her eight lengths. But it wasn't exactly pretty.

So far Royals Darling has won three of the four times he's run in fields of five or less and lost all fifteen times he's contested races with more runners. Maybe he'll develop more courage and be competitive in bigger fields over fences, but following this run I'd be inclined to oppose him till he does.

I had expected RUSSIAN AROUND (20) to win this after his smart display at Taunton on his previous start. But that race was over three furlongs longer. Here he was scrubbed along the whole way here and clearly needs a longer distance. He was allowed to come home in his own time from the second last so I wouldn't pay much attention to the wide margin of his defeat. Over two and a half miles I still think he's a very useful sort.

WICKED DAZE IMPROVES

Sir Mark Prescott has a knack of placing his horses to win a string of handicaps. I think he's found another candidate to set up a sequence in WICKED DAZE (37). This horse set a good pace and kept going strongly to win an above average 12 furlong handicap on Lingfield's Polytrack. He's improving according to my speed ratings and would have won four of his last five starts if two photos had gone the other way. I reckon he'll be winning again soon.

KRUGUYROVA DOES IT AGAIN

KRUGUYROVA (40) has some decent form at longer trips. But she clearly excels over shorter distances. She's won the last three times she's gone two and a quarter miles or less and earned a speed rating of 40 from me every time. She did so again when running away from her old rival ITS A DREAM (31) to score at Plumpton last Sunday.

Kuguyrova's trainer Charlie Egerton, clearly doesn't share my high opinion of Kruguyrova. He intends aiming her at a mare's novices chase at Newbury instead of the Arkle at the Cheltenham Festival which would have been my preference.

I think time will show that Kruguyrova is a seriously good two mile chaser. Certainly my speed ratings indicate this already.

Its A Dream simply couldn't go the pace Kruguyrova was setting. Still I suspect he is best over shorter trips because he finished pretty tired. And if he hadn't twice bumped into Kruguyrova he would have won all six times he's gone less than two and a half miles since losing on his racecourse debut. Next time out I'd bet on him winning as he's earned ratings as big as 39 from me which is good enough to win pretty much any novice chase.

THE VERY MAN IS A SMART STAYER

If there was such a thing as a four mile hurdle run on heavy ground I'd bet THE VERY MAN (37) to beat just about anything. Clearly he has almost bottomless stamina and made this apparent once more when winning at Lingfield from the useful BALLYFITZ (36).

As was the case on his last hurdles start, The Very Man was being scrubbed along with a mile to go. But as the going got tougher for his rivals he suddenly started going a lot better himself and turned into the straight with his ears pricked, going better than anything.

Ballyfitz kept trying to challenge The Very Man and rallied on the run in after looking to have been beaten off. In doing so he pulled well clear of the rest but could never quite get on terms.

I'd imagine that even now trainer Jonjo O'Neill and owner J P McManus are dreaming of the 2011 Grand National for The Very Man.

Ballyfitz had won all three of his previous hurdle starts and looked a cert to make it four out of four as he lobbed along at the back for most of the way, clearly going much better than anything else. He cruised up to the leaders just before entering the straight. But when The Very Man kicked on he found himself floundering and under pressure in fourth place. He was going so much better than anything bar the winner he was quickly able to move up into second but could never really get the winner going. He rallied really well on the run in to finish a creditable second.

Ballyfitz is a great big chasing sort that clearly stays all day. He was actually rather lucky to come up against a ludicrously well handicapped winner here because it means he'll probably be kept on something like his own current mark which understates his ability by a wide margin.

Despite being built and bred for chasing Ballyfitz ran moderately in both his point to point starts, falling in one of them. He also jumped badly and unseated the only time he was tried over fences under rules. So, given his advancing age, soundness problems and very low official rating, it would seem the obvious move to keep him to staying handicap hurdles like this. He's certainly capable of winning a decent one.

BREEDSBREEZE BENEFITS FROM STRONG PACE

I thought that BREEDSBREEZE (32) might have problems in the Tolworth Hurdle because the distance was a bit on the short side for him. I needn't have worried. Deep Purple (31) and Alsadaa (18) went off at a searching pace in the lead and made it a serious test of stamina. In fact they reached the third last 0.9 of a second sooner than they did in the good handicap hurdle on the same card. But that was a bit too quick it seemed because the field tired from there to take 2.7 second longer to reach the finish. Jumping the last everything in the race was legless and the first three basically walked to the line. Clearly the front runners had gone a bit beyond what I call the 'collapse point'. As a result the final time was nothing like as good as it could have been in a more evenly run contest.

In a more normally run race I think Breedsbreeze needs two and a half miles. I'm not sure it's a great idea to run him in the Totesport Trophy. In that race he'll be up against experienced hurdlers that can run as fast as Deep Purple and Alsaada did here and keep on going. In any event long term Breedsbreeze looks a seriously good chasing prospect.

HOW GOOD IS MASTER MINDED?

MASTER MINDED (38) won a good two mile chase at Sandown with a fair bit in hand. He's now won four of his six completed starts and run second in a Grade 1 in one of his losses. Here he was cruising for much of the way. Sandown specialist HASTY PRINCE (36) made some sort of a race of it from the last but Master Minded's jockey never had to go for everything.

I honestly don't know how good Master Minded is. He's a pretty big, good looking sort that looks more of a two and a half miler to me.

In France Master Minded's best speed rating was earned in a very strongly run race over an extended two and a half miles. That race brought his stamina into play as did the stiff track at Sandown. You can argue he's a two miler since his sire is Nikos who has produced the good two mile chaser Cenkos. But Master Minded's full brother Positive Thinking produced his two best runs over an extended two and a half miles as did his half brother Good Spirit while his other half brother, Hautclan, ran third in the Summer National over four miles on his most recent start.

My feeling at this point is that Master Minded will prove to be a Grade 3 two and a half mile chaser.

NACARAT NEEDS THE EMPHASIS TO BE ON JUMPING

NACARAT (37) put in an exhibition round of jumping to saunter away with a handicap chase at Wincanton in pattern class time. He won full of running and will clearly stay a good deal further than the 2m 5f he tried here.

Wincanton's fences are very stiff. In fact of all British courses only Aintree, Kempton, Lingfield, Doncaster and Ayr's jumps have claimed a similarly high percentage of fallers in the last decade or so. But Nacarat jumps carefully and skillfully, very much like a show jumper, measuring his fences and taking them with great precision. He met one fence slightly wrong at the top of the hill but corrected himself on landing to lose no ground.

Nacarat's ultra-safe jumping seems to be in his genes. His dam hasn't had another foal to race but three of her five siblings that went jumping ended up running in Cross Country Chases.

Nacarat would have won his last five completed chases but for making a mistake at the last when losing narrowly at Auteuil. He looks a natural for the National fences, so the idea his connections mooted of going for the Topham Trophy sounds like a good idea.

Nacarat is rather narrow, so I wonder whether he may need rests between his runs. In this regard it looks significant that he's won the last four times he's come into a race off a break of five weeks or more and lost all five times he hasn't. If he were mine I'd be giving him just one more run and then put him away for Aintree.

DOES BLAZING BAILEY REALY STAY THREE MILES?

BLAZING BAILEY (41) ended up winning the Steel Plate and Sections Hurdle pretty impressively in fast time. The pace picked up from the top of the hill and so he and several others were pretty much flat to the boards and hard driven from a long way out. But he kept at it and ended up surging away from the last.

Looking at his physique and his record my feeling now is that Blazing Bailey is a pretty narrow sort and is probably best fresh. His wins have all come on one of his first two starts off a three month plus break or with a four week or longer rest thereafter.

I also suspect that Blazing Bailey's best trip is the two and a half miles of this contest. He did win a very slow run renewal of the Cleeve Hurdle over three miles last season. But he's lost all the other six times he's gone 2m 6f or more, and the stronger the pace has been the sooner he's tired and the further he's been beaten. He's now won five of the six times he's run 14-21 furlongs when he's been fresh in the manner I've described above and scored just once in his 18 starts in other circumstances.

WICHITA LINEMAN (38) had real trouble going the pace even before it picked up with a mile or so to run. He was niggled along to hold his position. He was under continuous pressure from a long way out and, though outpaced by the winner, did keep on nicely to hold the runner up spot. Clearly he's only ever going to run up to his best over two and a half miles on soft ground and is best over three or more.

AFSOUN (37) ran like a non-stayer. He moved better than anything when the pace picked up and looked a real threat in between the last two but tired badly. However let's not leap to conclusions here. He ran a huge race when second to Hardy Eustace over two and a half miles at Ascot. It may very well be that he simply needs to be fresher than he was here and that's why he tired. After all, every one of his jump wins have been to what I call the rest pattern, that is his first two runs off a three month plus break and with a five week or longer break between his completed starts thereafter.

It may also be that Afsoun needs an easier track to last two and a half miles.

GASPARA (37) is an admirably consistent mare who always seems to run her race. She set the pace for almost the whole way and kept on for third to equal her best previous speed rating.

FAASEL (33) ran below his best, adding more evidence to my theory that he prefers bigger fields. My theory is that Faasel needs plenty of cover. When he runs in a small field and sees too much daylight he runs close but appears unwilling to go through with his effort. Since he started wearing headgear he's lost all thirteen times he's run in single figure fields like this one. But if the photo had gone the other way in the Triumph he would have won seven of the ten times he's run in fields of ten or more. His two most recent losses in big fields were placed efforts at the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals.

I would not write off BLACK JACK KETCHUM just yet even though he had to be pulled up. The fact he wore a tongue tie for the first time here indicates that his breathing operation has not been entirely successful. When horses develop breathing problems you should forget their previous form and bet they'll only win when they're fresh on relatively flat tracks on good ground. So the fact that Black Jack Ketchum won on fast ground at Wetherby off a break is not surprising. On a stiff undulating track like Cheltenham, on soft ground and without a rest it was hardly surprising he ran a clunker. Off a break, on faster ground and on a flatter track I bet he'll win again.

LORD GENEROUS A SMART PROSPECT

LORD GENEROUS (37) won what looked like a red hot juvenile bumper over a mile and a half at Cheltenham on New Years day. He was always prominent but had to be ridden along from a long way out as the leaders kicked for home. As they met the rising ground in the straight he started to go a lot better and quickly moved into second and then the lead with a furlong to run. He was out on his own, away from his nearest challenger CRICKET BOY (36) at this point and started to idle as inexperienced horses often do in this situation. However when YONDER (37) made a late charge at him he got some company and responded to win with his ears pricked, full of running. Clearly he was much the best and had a fair bit in reserve.

There's no question that Lord Generous is a useful Bumper horse and a great hurdling prospect. And it's obvious he's crying out for the full two miles or even longer.

Cricket Ball is built more for chasing in the long run rather than hurdling. He too was flat to the boards for quite some way but kept on well. No doubt he'll win when he steps up to two miles plus. Long term he's an interesting chasing prospect.

Yonder finished with a wet sail and made up a lot of ground until held late by the winner. If she were mine I'd be tempted to switch her to the flat as she ran quick enough here to earn black type in something like the Park Hill Stakes. Then again there are now more mares only hurdles available, so either way Yonder looks set to win plenty of races.

WILD CANE RIDGE TOUGH TO BEAT IN THE FAR NORTH

WILD CANE RIDGE (33) has earned speed ratings as big as 40 from me in the past. He might have come close to that rating if he hadn't been so heavily eased a long way before the finish when winning a handicap hurdle at Ayr. In this race he set a decent pace, reaching the sixth jump 2.2 seconds sooner than they did in the novice hurdle on the same card. I think he'd have maintained that sort of superiority if he'd had any company, but he ambled clear to win by forty lengths and clocked a time 0.3 of a second slower than the novices thanks to being so heavily eased.

It does seem that Wild Cane Ridge is best on his local tracks. Those being Ayr, Newcastle, Kelso, Hexham and Carlisle. He only ran second on his hurdles debut, but he would have won all his other eleven completed starts at his local tracks if only a couple of short head photos had gone the other way. He's lost all seven times he's run at more distant courses.

The aim is to bring Wild Cane Ridge back to Ayr for the Scottish National. That sounds like a good plan to me. Though I have to add I'm a little concerned that he's a somewhat light-framed horse and so far all his wins have come in fields of twelve or less. It could be he'll have trouble fighting for position at the fences in the huge field that assembles for the Scottish National. Still it has to be the right target for a horse that's now unbeaten in four starts at Ayr.

KHYBER KIM A SMART NOVICE HURDLER

KHYBER KIM (39) earned a long string of Group 2 class speed ratings from me on the flat. And he ran just as fast to win impressively on his hurdling debut at Newbury. The time he ran actually gives him a serious shot of winning in Grade 1 company over timber as a novice.

When he cruised into the lead it looked like Khyber Kim was going to win by a wide margin but THEATRE GIRL (38) stuck to her task most tenaciously and made some sort of a race of it with him.

Khyber Kim is probably best fresh, so I imagine we'll only be seeing him once more before Cheltenham. I'm not yet sure whether he handles an undulating track so I rather hope he'll be running on one next time.

Theatre Girl is probably the best female novice hurdler right now and she looked like she could stay longer from the way she rallied. So the obvious target for her is surely the mares only final back at Newbury towards the end of the season.

IS MOON OVER MIAMI BETTER LEFT-HANDED?

MOON OVER MIAMI (36) won a hot novice chase narrowly from BIG BUCKS (36) in a race where the pair pulled 40 lengths clear of their pursuers. Both horses have run considerably faster before and would have done so here if the early pace hadn't been slow for the first half mile.

Moon Over Miami pulled against the slow pace, so his jockey sensibly allowed him to stride on. He really got rolling down the far side and began to stretch his rivals into mistakes, notably Big Bucks who had serious difficulty closing the gap on him. Eventually though the superior stamina of the big, deep-chested Paul Nicholls inmate came into play and he was wearing down Moon Over Miami all the way from the second last.

One thing this race showed for sure is that Big Bucks is not an an Arkle candidate whereas Moon Over Miami is. The winner was tying up towards the end of the extended two and a quarter miles while the runner up was staying on.

Trainer Charlie Mann dismisses the idea that Moon Over Miami is best on left-handed courses. But it's hard to get away from the fact that the horse has won the last four times he's gone left-handed and lost the last five times he's run on right-handed courses. Still, this may just be happenstance, so I'm going to go with Mann's idea that it's a strong pace Moon Over Miami needs rather than a left-handed track. And now that he's shown he can make his own running he won't be at the mercy of whatever pace his rivals set, so he should run more consistently. He's one of the fastest British candidates for the Arkle. But I should add the Irish seem to have most of the best two mile novice chasers this term.

I imagine Big Bucks will step back up to two and a half miles, the trip he showed his best form over in France. He's earned speed ratings as big as 39 from me over that distance which is good enough to give him a shot of taking a Grade 1 novice chase. No doubt he'll stay three miles in time.