QUWETWO IS A HUGE TALENT

The biggest horse I've ever heard of weighed 1,400 pounds. I rather suspect that QUWETWO (38) tips the scales slightly more than that. He's a truly enormous horse with a very deep chest that shows an exaggerated knee action.

Quwetwo has ability to match his size, as he showed when powering away to win a novice hurdle at Doncaster in seriously fast time.

Whatever he does over hurdles is surely a bonus for Quwetwo. If he can only be kept sound I can see him developing into a Grand National candidate when he switches to fences. Given his physique it was amazing he could run so fast over a trip as short as two miles at Doncaster. Over three miles plus there's no saying how good he might be.

Quewetwo got outpaced on a fast surface on his racecourse debut. Given his tremendous size and stride pattern I doubt that his connections would ever want to risk him on anything but yielding or softer ground. They will surely also steer him away from tracks with steep downhill sections such as Cheltenham, Chepstow or Lingfield. He would hit the ground so hard coming downhill he could easily injure himself.

It is obviously going to be hard to train and place Quewetwo. But he's clearly a huge talent.

BIG FELLA THANKS A WORTHY FAVOURITE FOR NATIONAL HUNT CHASE

BIG FELLA THANKS (37) ensured that he'll start a warm favourite for the four mile National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham when running away with the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster. He idled when he got clear after two out but this is the norm for him. Indeed he seems to positively hate seeing too much daylight in a race.

A couple of runs back Big Fella Thanks looked like he was wanting to pull himself up when he was marooned in the lead a long way out in a tiny field at Taunton. His jockey had to ride like a demon to keep him going. It was therefore no big surprise to hear trainer Paul Nicholls say afterwards that Big Fella Thanks was best in big fields.

So far Big Fella Thanks has won all four times he's completed the course in fields bigger than twelve and lost all five times he's run in smaller fields. He might well have won the only time he tipped up in a big field too. Quite where the cut off point for him is hard to say. But I'd certainly oppose him with some confidence in any single figure field. In the big field that normally lines up for the National Hunt Chase he'll deserve to be favourite as he clearly stays well.

The raw time of the race would only merit a rating of 35 from me. I've upgraded it to reflect the increased pace from five out which ensured they came home from there only a fifth of a second slower than the smart Nacarat in a five furlong shorter chase on the same card.

The one horse that seemed to positively hate the quickened tempo was UNGARO (33) he quickly dropped back to seventh and was still only in fourth spot jumping the last which he took slowly to keep himself safe at the strong gallop they were going.

I've noted before that I don't think Ungaro is big or strong enough to carry high weights effectively in handicaps. I now suspect he's also best in smaller fields over fences for the same reason. Here he collided with another horse jumping the first and was sensibly steered to race on his own on the outside thereafter to avoid more traffic problems. This did prompt him to jump out to his right at one fence (he prefers going right handed according to his connections). However once the field thinned out and he'd recovered from getting stretched five out he steadily improved to take a distant second by the finish.

My feeling now is that Ungaro is probably best in single figure fields over fences. Toss out his chase runs in big fields and he's won four of the last five times he's run beyond two and a half miles on right handed courses.

If he were mine I'd be switching Ungaro to Conditions chases so that he has more chance of finding a small field.

NACARAT DESERVES ANOTHER SHOT AT TOPHAM

NNACARAT (39) clearly dislikes undulating courses. And he's a narrow horse, which means he needs to be fresh. But when he meets his favoured conditions he's a solid Grade 2 performer.

So far Nacarat has run in six chases on dead flat tracks when he's come into the race off a break of five weeks or more. He won five of those six times and finished a close second in very fast time to Natal in his sole loss. Natal is almost unbeatable on flat tracks, has run second in a Grade 1 and was rate 160 by the handicapper soon after Nacarat ran him close giving him weight. This being so Nacarat looked insanely well handicapped running off a mark of just 135 off a break around the nearly dead flat Doncaster last week. And so it proved. He simply strolled clear of his rivals to win by a huge margin after disputing the lead all the way at a strong gallop.

The obvious target for Nacarat has to be the Topham Trophy. If he goes into the race fresher than he was last year he'll be tough to beat.

DIAMOND HARRY NEEDS TO BE KEPT FRESH

After he won at Newbury last month I suggested it would be a smart idea to steer DIAMOND HARRY (35) towards the far rail as soon as he hit the front in his prep race for the Ballymore Properties at Cheltenham. My reasoning was that this would give him a rail to race against and thereby stop him drifting left and idling as he has in the past.

The tactic was duly tried, and it worked. As soon as he kicked on, Diamond Harry was taken as far left as the course would allow. He prevailed by just half a length in what turned out to be a sprint finish but never really looked in serious danger (he never idled or hung at all). No doubt the tactic will be repeated in the Ballymore Properties where a bigger field won't make it look so extreme and it won't result in him having nothing to race against.

After a modest early gallop, at least for most of the race, they came home from two out 3.1 seconds quicker in Diamond Harry's race than they did in the hot handicap hurdle over nearly half a mile shorter. When I adjust my rating to compensate for this it points to a sub par performance by Diamond Harry.

I think the explanation can be found in the post race comments of trainer Nick Williams. He told reporters "I'll have to be careful now. He was plenty light enough before the race and we won't run him again (before the Cheltenham Festival).

This was the first time that Diamond Harry had come into a race off a break of less than six weeks following his second run of the season. It looks like he's one of those horses that is best fresh. So it's pretty impressive that he could win a Grade 2 off a break of just 25 days. He'll have six weeks before Cheltenham and that should be enough. He remains a horse of tremendous potential.

I would be wary of assuming that the unbeaten runner up Bensalem (35) is as good as this form makes him look. I think Diamond Harry ran below form.

FAIR ALONG HAS A REAL SHOT IN WORLD HURDLE

It is very hard to rate the form of the Cleeve Hurdle won by BIG BUCK'S (41) as they went an absolute crawl in the early stages. The best I can do is compare the time they took from the seventh last to the finish with that of the good two mile handicap hurdle on the same card. They covered the roughly 1m 5f from there to the finish 1.8 seconds quicker. In other words Big Bucks would have won the shorter race by seven lengths.

The real pace didn't come until they'd jumped the third last. They came home from there exactly four seconds quicker than in the two mile hurdle.

A sprint finish on heavy ground is no way to decide a big staying hurdle. The slightest jumping error is amplified massively and finishing speed rather than stamina determines the winner. This being so I'm going to be wary of assuming that Big Bucks will confirm the form with the runner up PUNCHESTOWNS (40) or third placed FAIR ALONG (39) in the World Hurdle.

Having said that, I must concede that Big Bucks has won all three of his completed starts over three miles plus and might have won the only one where he tipped up if he hadn't fallen at the last in the Hennessy. My feeling though is that he's built much more like a chaser than a hurdler and that if he's going to win a Grade 1 it will be over fences.

Punchestowns wasn't fully fit according to his trainer Nicky Henderson. So it's not surprising he couldn't sustain the long sprint to the line as well as the winner after looking to be going better than him turning in. I don't think this run alters the fact that he's one of the best staying hurdlers. In fact it was probably an ideal prep.

Fair Along begins to interest me at big odds for the World Hurdle. He loves Cheltenham and had hosed up in the two marathon hurdles he'd tackled at the track previously. He was still bang there and moving well when a mistake at the last cost him valuable momentum. He'd have gone a lot closer but for that and was probably more disadvantaged by the slow early pace than the two that beat him. Off a stronger pace at the Festival I think he'll have a real shot.

MASTER MINDED SHOULD SKIP GAME SPIRIT

It would be easy to eulogize about the performance MASTER MINDED (42) put up when taking the Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot. He clocked yet another seriously fast time while winning by a wide margin.

However while I'll readily concede that Master Minded is a brilliant two mile chaser that can probably beat just about anything I think it will pay to be cautious about his immediate future prospects, especially insofar as next month's Game Spirit Chase at Newbury is concerned.

Last year Master Minded had a five week break before he ran in the Game Spirit. If he goes for the race this year he's going to have to do so off a much shorter rest. This is rarely a good idea with a top two mile chaser, the vast majority of which are best fresh. And I suspect it would be a particularly bad idea with Master Minded as he had a hard race here despite winning by a wide margin.

Jockey Ruby Walsh said something that I feel was very significant after the race when he told reporters: "I wasn't sure how I was going turning into the straight, but I gave him a squeeze and he kicked into another gear, and I was half sorry I did that."

Indeed, I rather suspect that Walsh would have done better to have eased Master Minded up as soon as he'd burst clear. Instead he kept on increasing his advantage, even from the last jump. The result was that he clocked a proper Grade 1 time. And no horse can do that easily, especially in a two mile chase.

I strongly suspect that Master Minded will be sidestepping the Game Spirit Chase because he won't have recovered from this race in time and his connections surely won't want to blow their chances of a Champion Chase double by giving him another hard race there. So if anyone starts betting on the Game Spirit ante-post and marks up Master Minded as favourite I'd say it's time to step in and take some fancy prices about the obvious alternatives. And if he does line up at Newbury I'd be inclined to oppose him.

The only horse that ever looked a threat to Master Minded in the Victor Chandler was OR NOIR DE SOMOZA (32). This former French star was having his first run in Britain and moved really well for a long way. But his new trainer, David Pipe, had warned beforehand that the horse would probably need the run. And the horse confirmed it by pulling hard on the way down (something that unfit horses often too when they are really fresh and full of themselves following a break).

Or Noir De Somoza misjudged a couple of the fences. But this is not surprising seeing the rather different kind of jumps he was used to in France. He tired in the closing stages but I have no doubt he will improve a good deal for the run.

Or Noir De Somoza had won eleven of the twelve times he'd run shorter trips over fences in France prior to this run and has now taken three Group 1 contests.

I watched the videos of Or Noir De Somoza's recent French chases and can tell you that normally he is a quick and accurate jumper. Indeed he jumped well here except for the couple he judged wrong.

It's hard to say at this stage what distance is going to suit Or Noir De Somoza best because the top older chasers never get the chance to run less than two and a half miles in France. However he did win a 1m 7f hurdle as a juvenile. So it may be that he'll prove effective at two miles. The logical thing to do is surely to run him in the Game Spirit Chase and find out.

NATAL (15) showed that two miles is too short for him as he was outpaced right from the start. He remains a smart horse on dead flat tracks at around two and a half miles, having lost just the once in six completed starts in these circumstances.

FREE WORLD AND CALGARY BAY WENT OFF TOO FAST

The betting for the Grade 2 Lightning Novices' Chase at Ascot was 4/5 FREE WORLD (30), 13/8 CALGARY BAY (38) and 10-1 bar. So it's perhaps understandable that the jockeys on these two horses decided to take each other on and ignore all the other runners.

The duel between the pair was exciting to watch. They attacked all the fences and had pulled six lengths clear of the rest with five to jump. Unfortunately they had gone just a bit too fast. They reached the third last fence only nine tenths of a second later than the champion two mile chaser Master Minded did in the big race on the same card. And even though Master Minded strolled home unchallenged from there they lost a further seven tenths of a second on him over the last three.

Jamie Moore on board PANJO BERE (38) had sensibly allowed the two favourites to go clear. And, as they tired this paid off. He picked them up by two out, kicked on and then held the late rally of Calgary Bay.

I would be doubtful that Panjo Bere would normally be as effective over two miles and a furlong as he was here. The early pace was fierce, race times indicate the ground was yielding to soft and the uphill finish added to the test of stamina the race posed. Normally I think Panjo Bere is best at two and a quarter to two and a half miles. His four previous wins came over this range of distances.

Panjo Bere has won a moderate race on fast ground. But trainer Gary Moore says he needs cut in the ground to produce his best. So he does look a rather unlikely Arkle candidate as the trip will probably be too short and the going too fast. Besides he's only a Grade 3 horse on my ratings.

I suggested after his last run, where he got really tired, that Free World would want a break of at least eight weeks to recover. He had six weeks before this run and perhaps that wasn't enough. But it's tough to tell because he clearly went off too fast to last home.

If he were mine I would be inclined to lay Free World off until Aintree and bring him back for the Maghull Novices Chase. That race is run over the absolute minimum NH distance on a dead flat, tight track. So it surely offers Free World the very best chance of big race success as a novice. I just can't see him lasting home in the Arkle.

Calgary Bay continues to look a decent prospect for the Arkle. He did well here to finish so close after going so fast early. His trainer blamed the defeat on the fact that he is inclined to hang to his left. This is true. He was clearly tending to go that way all the way from four out and it caused him to land flat footed at the last. He rallied really well and it's easy to argue that he would have won on a left-handed course.

This run proved that Calgary Bay can be very effective around the Arkle trip. He's won two of the three times he's run at Cheltenham too.

CLOUDY LANE PROBABLY BEST IN BIG FIELDS

CLOUDY LANE (39) looked set to win the Peter Marsh Chase impressively when he swept into the lead four out. But before the last his ears started going back and forth, he eased himself up, and it wasn't until his challengers got to him that he ran on again.

It does now seem pretty clear that Cloudy Lane needs a strong pace to run at, and that he needs to be delivered later than he was here. He got outpaced in slow run races on his previous two starts which featured small fields. So I'm going to be wary of betting him in small fields from now on unless I can be sure there are a couple of front runners in the line up.

It's clear that Cloudy Lane is a high class three mile chaser. But whether or not he stays marathon distances remains a moot point. Personally I still think he shows too much pace to be a Grand National horse, and his three flops at marathon distances suggest I'm right.

GLASKER MILL (39) ran on well and only just went under. He's rather a narrow sort and is best fresh. If the photo had gone the other way this would have been three wins from four tries over fences when he's had a break of six weeks plus since his last completed start. If he's kept fresh for Cheltenham he'd be rather interesting.

OPERA MUNDI (38) stayed on well and would surely have gone even closer if the ground had been genuinely soft (race times indicate it was good to yielding). He needs to go left handed over fences and had won four of the most recent five times he'd run on genuinely soft ground when you toss out one right handed chase run. So far he has yet to prove he can handle a steeply undulating track like Cheltenham. It may well be that he hits his legs too hard on the downhill sections and that this explains why all his chase wins have come on dead flat tracks.

The ground was probably not soft enough for DEAR VILLEZ (33) either. He weakened form three out having chased the leader at perhaps too strong a pace early. He's won four out of four on genuinely soft or heavy ground and clocked a Grade 2 class time when scoring at Limerick. If he gets his ground in another big handicap chase this term he'll be tough to beat.

I liked the way that KANDJAR D'ALLIER (25) attacked his fences. You could see him getting really keen as soon as he approached one. And he was very happy to stand back and put in a really big one.

The problem is Kandjar D'Allier clearly has stamina problems. He doesn't get home on tracks with steep uphill finishes and cannot stay an inch beyond three miles. So he was always likely to get himself in trouble at the fierce pace he went off at here. Sure enough, despite moving powerfully to four out he stopped to nothing in the closing stages.

Kandjar D'Allier is clearly best when fresh. He appears to run to what I call ' the rest pattern'. That is he is good for his first two completed starts of the season and then needs a break of at least five weeks between his completed starts in order to run well again.

Before this run Kandjar D'Allier had run five times over three miles or less on tracks without steep uphill finishes when he's been fresh. And he'd won all five times. In doing so he's clocked some smart times.

If he were mine the race I'd be shooting for with Kandjar D'Allier is the Topham Trophy. The distance of just under three miles would suit him perfectly, as would the dead flat track. And the big fences would make the most of his exuberant jumping. If he's kept fresh and goes for that race he'll be carrying my money.

FAASEL was horribly outpaced right from the start. I wouldn't want to bet him on a dead flat galloping course like this having seen this performance. But his record on tight left-handed tracks over jumps remains tremendous. He's won four times and finished second three times from seven tries. I see him running another big race at the Aintree Festival.

DON'T WRITE OFF DEE EE WILLIAMS

DEEE EE WILLIAMS (31) really should have won the Rossington Main Novices Hurdle at Haydock quite comfortably if he'd run to his previous form. But it looks like two miles on a dead flat track is just not a stiff enough test for him. He tried to go with the winner ALFIE FLITS (36) up the straight and did so for a long way. But he simply couldn't sustain the sustained dash to the line as well as that one. This is not so surprising seeing that Alfie Flits had the speed to finish second to Group 1 winner Librettist over a mile on the flat.

Dee Ee Williams has always looked more of a staying sort. So, if he goes to Cheltenham, his target should surely now be the Ballymore Properties rather than the Supreme Novices.

It's also possible that Dee Eee Williams needs to be fresher than he was here. If he were mine I'd skip Cheltenham, rest him for six weeks or more and bring him back over two and a half miles.

AFSOUN WAS THE BEST HORSE IN CHAMPION HURDLE TRIAL

The Champion Hurdle Trial at Haydock was fought out by two horses that had been chasing in recent starts. SONGE (39) won the race narrowly from AFSOUN (38). But I'm rather confident that Afsoun is going to turn out the better of the pair.

I say this because Afsoun clearly hadn't yet adapted his jumping style properly to the smaller obstacles. He overjumped the first three and then misjudged several subsequent obstacles when he began to jump lower. But for this I feel he would have won. He certainly kept on strongly and ran a big race.

Afsoun has run faster than this in the past. In fact he's run fast enough to win a Grade 1. The reason he hasn't done so is almost certainly that he's a nervous sort that has worn ear plugs in the past in an attempt to overcome his nerves.

Afsoun seems able to run to his best at most meetings. But at the really big fixtures like the Spring Festivals, Cheltenham's Open meeting and Kempton's Boxing Day fixture he's run well below his best. The big crowds and extended parades seem to put him off.

Clearly Afsoun is an unlikely Champion Hurdle candidate. But so too is the winner whose four successes have all been on dead flat tracks, which is the norm for horses that break blood vessels as he has.

COE IS A SMART STAYING CHASER

When Sue Smith runs a young, lightly raced chaser over a marathon trip in anything but a very big race it pays to sit up and take notice. Over the last five years she has run ten horses aged seven or less with less than ten chase starts to their name in class 3 or lower grade chases over three and a half miles plus. Seven of the nine won and one of the losers was a most unlucky second.

COE (38) is the latest success for Sue Smith in these circumstances and he looks a smart prospect. He is a great big, tall, deep chested chasing sort that will almost certainly be contesting the Grand National one day. He impressed me when winning a three and a half mile chase at Haydock.

Coe was always moving best and steadily worked his way into the race till leading seven out. He was clearly moving very strongly all the time. Even a mistake at the thirteenth and a novicey blunder three out couldn't stop him. He ended up winning really well while still moving strongly.

Seeing that he's such a big, heavy topped horse it's not surprising that Coe has so far only won on dead flat, galloping tracks when the ground has been officially soft or heavy. He's actually unbeaten in these circumstances.

I doubt that Coe will ever win on an undulating course or on fast ground because he hits the ground too hard. Tight turns will always present a problem for him too I imagine. But when he gets his conditions he's going to be tough to beat in marathon chases from now on.

CONTEST BOUNCES BACK

David Simcock has a truly amazing record with decent winners that he gets from other trainers. So far he has acquired twelve previous winners with official ratings of 70 or higher from other yards. Six of the twelve have won first time for his stable. Another three won on their second start for him.

CONTEST (39) is far and away the best horse Simcock has ever acquired from another stable. He beat Tax Free in a hot Listed race at Cork on his first start last season - a performance that had me predicting he would become one of the top sprinters in Europe. Now he's gone and won a hot Conditions race for Simcock at the first time of asking.

It's interesting to note that the only decent run Contest put in during his last five starts before Lingfield came in his only try on Polytrack at Dundalk. Polytrack is renowned for reducing the concussion a horse experiences to its legs. So it well be significant that Contest's big run at Cork came on yielding ground.

Contest won going away at Lingfield and looks as good as ever. But I'm going to be cautious about predicting he'll do well on the lightning fast surface they normally have at Nad Al Sheba until he's proven he can act on it. If he does then he could do very well indeed. And if he doesn't then I'd recommend betting him the next time he encounters Polytrack or yielding or softer turf.

DIAMOND HARRY IS SPECIAL

DIAMOND HARRY (40) won Newbury's Grade 1 Challow Hurdle with any amount in hand, extending his unbeaten record to five wins. And the interesting thing about his performance is that despite a slow early gallop he came home half a second faster over the last eight jumps than they did in a strongly run juvenile hurdle over five furlongs shorter earlier on the card. If he'd run the same pace from the start he'd have earned a rating of 44 from me. As it is his time for the last two miles would have earned a rating of 36 if it had been in a race of that distance. So I think it's fair to give him a rating in between those two numbers. And that makes him a proper Grade 1 horse.

Diamond Harry is a really handsome horse, very well put together and symmetrical. It's easy to see him developing into a Cheltenham Gold Cup prospect in time. Meanwhile he has the pace to win very good staying hurdles.

If you want to quibble you can point to the fact that Diamond Harry tried to run around once he struck the front as he had before. It was only because he was moving so easily that jockey Nick Williams had the time to correct him. If he'd been challenged strongly he might well have got himself into trouble.

When he goes to Cheltenham to take in his prep race for the Ballymore Properties I'd like to see Diamond Harry steered towards the far rail when he gets to the front. Horses have loads of room to go walkabout on the run in at Cheltenham. So it looks like a good opportunity to start taking corrective action by giving him a rail to race against rather than risk him lose the big race by veering left again.

Runner up JUNIOR (38) lacks pace and does nothing but stay. So the dead flat track and modest early pace was totally against him. It was no surprise to see the winner swamp him for finishing speed.

Junior has won three of the four times he's gone a mile and a half or more on the flat. And he's run nothing but big races over hurdles when he's had a vaguely recent run and raced over a stiff track or off a strong pace.

STAN NOT JUST A SPRING HORSE

I had STAN (40) pegged as a Spring horse pure and simple until he won the valuable Skybet.com Chase at Cheltenham. Now I'm inclined to believe that he's a two and a half mile specialist that always needs his first two completed starts each term and hates soft or heavy ground. He's won all five times he's run 2m 3f to 2m5f on yielding or faster ground following his first two completed starts. He did win one very strongly run two mile race at Aintree. But normally I think he needs the kind of distance he ran at Cheltenham.

HOLD EM (35) ran a most encouraging race to take third. Previously he had been a cautious jumper. But here, surrounded by a mass of runners traveling at a fast pace, he was encouraged to be much more adventurous. The result was that he made a series of blunders. However the fact that he didn't fall may well have finally taught Hold Em that he doesn't need to be so careful at the jumps. He was always prominent in the chasing pack but was only seventh running up to the last. The strong early pace began to tell from there though and his stamina allowed him to come through and take third on the run in.

Hold Em has won seven of the last eight times he's run below pattern class (when you include his point to point win). His sole loss came off a lengthy lay off. Next time he runs in a lower grade race I'll be very interested in his chances.

It's worth mentioning that the Skybet.com Chase is very odd from a statistical standpoint.

Usually big handicaps like this go to lightly raced, unexposed sorts, often those that haven't shown much recently. But all nine runnings of this race have now gone to a horse that had plenty of chasing experience and had shown decent form that same season. Specifically they all had at least ten chase starts previously (including point to points), including at least two since September, had earned Racing Post ratings higher than 130 this season and 140 plus sometime. Stan and Hold Em were two of the four runners this time match this profile.

CALGARY BAY SHOULD GO FOR THE ARKLE

Henrietta Knight is apparently worried that is worried that the Arkle will be too short for CALGARY BAY (38) and the Sun Alliance Chase too long after the horse's nice win in the Grade 2 Dipper Chase over 2m 5f at Cheltenham. However sectional times suggest that the big horse actually has a decent shot in the shorter race.

I say this because they went a pretty ordinary early pace in the Dipper and picked it up markedly on the far side on the second circuit, coming home exactly a second quicker over the last mile and a half or so than they did in the big handicap chase on the same card. I've adjusted my speed rating for the race to take account of this.

In addition, despite his size, Calgary Bay showed on the second circuit that he can ping the fences at the kind of speed he'll need to in the Arkle.

Plenty of horses that stay two and a half miles or more have won the Arkle. So I reckon that should be his target.

For a horse whose six wins have all come when he's been fresher KICKS FOR FREE (36) ran a big race to take second, keeping on well after being under pressure a long way out. If he's given a break of five weeks or more before his next run I'll be interested in his chances.

TARTAK (33) is a big, strong, deep chested, staying sort. So he did himself no favours by setting such a moderate early pace. He basically played into the hands of the first two who totally did him for pace. I think he needs to go back up to three miles and may well need softer ground.

DON'T DESERT FRANCHOEK

The stats suggest strongly that five year olds are just not strong enough to beat older rivals in the top staying hurdles. No horse this young has ever won the World Hurdle and the form book is replete with examples of staying hurdlers that blanked in many big races in seasons they started as four year olds before showing much improved form the next season. Kasbah Bliss and Blazing Bailey are the most recent examples of this. Now it looks like FRANCHOEK (36) is set to be another.

I thought that Franchoek was a good thing to win a staying hurdle at Cheltenham on New Year's Day. And he must have been longs odds on in running when he sauntered into a clear lead between the last two jumps. But he was up against two older Grade 1 winners in Lough Derg (37) and No Refuge, and they rallied to wear him out of it on the run in.

Give his very strong physique and the fact that he was flat to the boards over 2m 3.5f at Ascot a couple of runs back I cannot doubt Franchoek's stamina as others now seem to be doing. I remain convinced that he will be winning over three miles in future rather than two. However history says that we should not expect him to win anything big until next season. Unless that is he ships over to France where there are a few big staying hurdles restricted to his age group.

Long term I can readily see Franchoek jumping a fence, seeing how bold he was at several jumps in this race.

MILLENIUM ROYAL LOOKS GOOD FOR RACING POST CHASE

Last year's Feltham Novices Chase was a frustrating affair as they went very slow early on and the two best horses in the race, Silverburn and Barbers Shop, simply couldn't cope with the resulting sprint in the closing stages.

This year's Feltham Novices Chase wasn't quite so slow run. But the field still went well below the speed they should have until they set out on the second circuit. They reached the ninth fence 6.9 seconds later than in the King George later on the same card. They covered the remaining part of the race 3.2 seconds slower than in the King George. But this was still a step too fast for several of the inexperienced runners, just as it was last year when they covered the same part of the race 3.1 seconds slower than they did in the King George.

MILLENIUM ROYAL was the first to be put in trouble by the increased pace. He was stretched into a mistake at the eleventh which caused his rider to be unseated. Prior to that he'd been simply lobbing along in last place. And I'm convinced his acceleration would have won him the race had he stood up.

I know Millenium Royal was an outsider and that it was too far out to say for sure what would have happened. But Francois Doumen’s charge has looked seriously smart since switching to fences and has a much better acceleration than the first and second.

Millennium Royal has been one of the best staying hurdlers in recent years but always needed to be kidded along to score. And he was always far better beating up on second class rivals than when facing the very best in his division. However steeplechasing seems to have made a man out of him. He'd jumped and raced with real enthusiasm in his three previous chases and responded very willingly to pressure.

Millenium Royal really should have won all three of those starts. The one he lost was over an inadequate 2m 3f. And he surely would have won that if he hadn't continually been bothered by a horse jumping across him from the fourth last to the second last. He finally escaped that one's attentions at the last and was closing on the winner strongly. But there he made his only mistake and dropped from two and a half lengths to five lengths off the winner in a few strides. He rallied strongly and was picking up the winner quickly in the closing strides. But the run in was too short for him to get up.

Two runs back Millenium Royal won the most valuable chase at France's second biggest jumps course, Enghein, the Group 2 Grand Steeplechase d'Enghein. There he beat experienced rivals, showing a serious turn of foot on the run in toe clear away before looking to idle in front, as he has done before.

Millenium Royal doesn't seem to like tracks with steep uphill finishes. So I doubt that Doumen will bring him back over for the Cheltenham Festival. The obvious target for him is surely the Racing Post Chase back over the same course and distance as the Feltham.

Even if I rate the winner BREEDSBREEZE (36) off the time for the second half of the race I can only give him a speed rating that's barely Listed class. He was one of only two horses that could cope with the increased pace but still struggled to beat a rival that has always seemed a suspect stayer in MASSINI'S MAGUIRE (34).

Seeing that he was getting tired towards the finish despite the slow early pace, I'd be dubious about Breedsbreeze lasting three miles in a more truly run race, especially on a more galloping track.

Breedsbreeze has won all three of his chase starts to date by quickening up off a slow early pace. Over hurdles he got hammered 55 lengths the only time he encountered a strong early pace beyond two miles. Perhaps he can sneak another big win off a slow pace if he cuts back to two and a half miles for the Scilly Isles Novices Chase at Sandown. But the idea of him winning the Sun Alliance Chase at the Cheltenham Festival looks fanciful to me. That race is invariably strongly run and I can't see him lasting the three miles there on the stiff track.

The fast ground, tight turns and slow early pace enabled Massini's Maguire to almost last the three miles. But his form and pedigree continue to suggest that he's better over shorter distances.

HOLD EM (30) showed once more that he's much better of a strong early pace by being flat to the boards from soon after the time the pace picked up. He tried hard to get to the first two but simply didn't have the pace to do so.

It's worth noting that Hold Em has won seven of the last eight times he's run below pattern class (when you include his point to point win). His sole loss came off a lengthy lay off. He's capable of running smart horses close but so far seems better beating up on inferior rivals. Next time he finds his way into a minor contest I'll be very interested in his chances.

THE MARKET MAN (22) may very well have been the best horse in the race. But the quickening pace seemed to suit him less well than anything in the entire line up. He was stretched into a terrible blunder at the fourteenth, taking off way too soon and landing on top of the fence. He was slow at a couple of fences afterwards too and clearly needs a greater test of stamina. A sprint finish on a tight track is just not his cup of tea.

If the Sun Alliance Chase winner ran in the Feltham I'd say it was The Market Man. He's shown form in top company over both fences and hurdles on stiff tracks. What's more his trainer, Nicky Henderson, says he is best on the fast ground which normally prevails at the Cheltenham Festival.

I dare say Henderson will want to give The Market Man one more run before Cheltenham. The obvious target is the Scilly Isles Novices Chase. He finished second on unsuitably soft ground in the race last year. If it came up faster this year he'd be a very interesting candidate.

KAUTO STAR STILL NOT BACK TO BEST

It may seem like sour grapes to continue knocking KAUTO STAR (41) after he's just gone and proved me wrong by winning a third King George. But I have to say that the clock indicates he is still running nowhere near as well as he was last season.

In last year's King George Kauto Star covered the first half of the race 15.3 seconds quicker than the novices did in the Feltham before coming home 3.1 seconds faster from there. This time he went 6.9 seconds quicker than the novices to halfway but still only came home 3.2 seconds faster in the last half of the race. Okay that sort of edge is probably the biggest an experienced chaser can have over a novice of similar class in the second half of a race. So you could argue that the comparative times simply reflect a stronger early pace in this year's Feltham. But lines of form and a comparison with the times of other races also point to the idea that this was no better than a good Grade 2 class effort from Kauto Star.

If you doubt me I'd invite you to watch the videos of the last two runnings of the King George back to back. When you do so it's hard not to believe that last year's version of Kauto Star would have given this year's version a sound thrashing.

It was good to hear after the race that Kauto Star will not be subjected to the series of races which seemed to knock him off form in the second half of last season. But even if he is kept fresh for the Gold Cup as planned I cannot see him overcoming that dreadful statistic which shows no horse has ever won more than one Gold Cup in anything but consecutive years. Impressive as this performance looked Kauto Star remains for me a horse to be opposed.

Runner up ALBERTAS RUN (38) had the fast ground he seems to need over fences and ran a big race, moving well all the way and giving the winner a real fight before staying on when the winner outpaced him in the closing stages.

It does seem that Albertas Run needs an uphill finish to offset his lack of acceleration. So far he's run four times on stiff tracks when the going has been good or faster and won every single time. He has yet to run a better time than he did here. But he has won a Grade 1 at the Cheltenham Festival and looks the most likely Gold Cup winner from the runners in this contest.

I can see why the connections of VOY POR USTEDES (38) now plan on cutting him back to shorter trips. He really should have won this race if he'd run to the form he showed when winning over two and a half miles at the Aintree Festival. I though he'd stay for sure. And while he did keep on okay it now looks like two and a half miles is more his trip.

The chance of an ex flat racer by Halling out of a Phone Trick mare staying three miles well enough to win one of the top Grade 1 chases is negligible. So BRIAREUS (30) did very well to finish fourth despite tiring badly. He moved really well on the outside towards the back for a long way until he ran out of stamina. He has a terrific record on yielding or faster ground at shorter trips. I see him winning something decent soon.

AIR FORCE ONE (28) got stretched by the fierce pace over the first three fences, jumping big and slow to keep himself safe. He closed up when the gallop slackened slightly afterwards but was flat to the boards when the race for home began in earnest with six to jump. At that stage he was stone last of the ten remaining runners, fully eight lengths behind the next to last horse. However his seemingly bottomless stamina came to the rescue in the closing stages, enabling him to move past tired rivals into a distant fifth.

It turned out that Air Force One tore muscles in his back, almost certainly at the second fence when he was really stretched. I've noted before that he seems determined to keep himself safe at the jumps and is prepared to simply drag his back legs through as long as he can get his front end over. I've seen him twist and contort in mid air to do the same thing when he's stretched and this clearly found him out here

As I've mentioned before, I reckon Air Force One is not at his best over the softer fences to be found in Britain. Their softness allows horses to hurdle them and leave a horse that lacks pace like Air Force One floundering. I also think he dislikes steeply undulating tracks like Cheltenham because the downhill sections cause him to meet some fences at a pace he's just not comfortable jumping.

I'd like to see trainer Charlie Mann's belief that Air Force One needs a fast surface tested. My own feeling is that soft ground would slow things up enough to stop Air Force One getting stretched over the easier British jumps. Still, I'd concede that whatever the going, the big jumps at Punchestown make the Guinness Gold Cup his obvious long term target this year. Though I do rather wish he'd be aimed at the Irish National seeing how well he stays.

I would regard Air Force One as unbeatable in Ireland because the stiffer fences prevent the other horses hurdling the jumps at a speed which gets him into trouble. I would have thought that soft ground would do the same thing for him over the easier jumps in Britain. As I see it he may very well be the best three mile plus chaser in training right now and simply needs the right circumstances to prove it.

IMPERIAL COMMANDER (17) confirmed that he's a non-stayer by stopping as though he'd been shot with four to jump. However he traveled so strongly up to that point I'm now inclined to be cautious about the negative stance I've previously taken on his chances of Grade 1 success. He looked awfully good for a long way here and has won all five times he's run less than 2m 5f under rules. He's lost all six times he's been asked to go 2m 5f or more and will surely now be cut back in trip.

I wouldn't be too concerned that Our Vic stopped so badly he had to be pulled up. There has always been a question about whether he truly stays three miles.

You could argue that Our Vic's defeat of Kauto Star in last season's Betfair Bowl proved he can stay. But he tired badly from two out in that race and became almost legless with exhaustion. It was only because soon afterwards the same thing happened with Kauto Star that Our Vic was able to rally and get up in a desperate slow motion finish. In a small field everything in the race ran way below their best according to my speed ratings. Something had to win, and the fact it happened to be Our Vic doesn't mean he stays.

Our Vic's previous two wins over three miles came at Wetherby and Ascot.

A survey of all UK tracks I carried out indicated that Wetherby is the easiest track to get home on. A higher percentage of horses earn comments which indicate they have energy at the finish than anywhere else (i.e. 'ran on', 'stayed on', 'kept on').

The three miles at Ascot is also a funny track that seems to help a lot of non stayers last home. I can recall seeing The Mighty Mac, arguably the best two and a half mile chaser in the last thirty years, win the SGB chase over three miles at Ascot despite the fact he never stayed the trip anywhere else in many tries.

Our Vic has tired a long way out and finished virtually legless in all seven of his starts over three miles outside of those Wetherby and Ascot wins. He did so when finishing a distant second in the King George last year. Back over a shorter trip I can see him winning the Ryanair Chase once more or perhaps the Ascot Chase, so long as he's rested as he needs to be.

TAMARINBLEU (10) is another horse that needs to be fresh to produce his best. He wasn't here, so it was no big surprise to see him tired badly.

SNOOPY LOOPY stopped and surely needs a break too. He was having his sixth race in two months and tenth this season, the over activity having been prompted by a pursuit of the BHA so-called Order Of Merit - a prize that seems to do little more than encourage a few unlucky horses to be over-raced in pursuit of it each year.

SNAP TIE HAS A SHOT IN CHAMPION HURDLE

As everyone knows, the trick with HARCHIBALD (41) is to find cover and deliver him as late as possible. He eases himself up very soon after he hits the front.

In very small fields Harchibald is always going to have a big problem finding the cover he needs. This is undoubtedly why he has won just one of the last twelve times he's run in fields of six or less but scored ten of the last sixteen times he's encountered a larger number of runners. One of his most recent losses in a big field came when he led two out which is clearly way too early. Two others were in photo finishes, one over an inadequate 11 furlongs and another in a slow run Polytrack race where he got outpaced when the gallop quickened.

In the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton there were just enough runners to give Harchibald the cover he needs. So Paul Carberry was able to take the lead at the last, where his mount was still cruising, and then hold off the late rally of SNAP TIE (41).

The early pace was only modest in the Christmas Hurdle. And, as happens quite often in these circumstances, the field kicked for home a bit early.

I've found that in slow run jump races the runners can sustain a sprint finish for five or six furlongs, no more. Once they've been sprinting for this long they begin to tire. This happened here. They ran the five and a half furlongs or so from the fifth jump to the second last 3.1 seconds quicker than the novices did earlier on the card but then covered the approximately two furlongs from the second last to the finish three fifths of a second slower. I've adjusted the speed ratings to take account of this using a formula I've devised based on sectional times. If I simply went with the raw time Harchibald clocked for the full distance I'd give him a rating of only 34.

After the last all the principles were beginning to tire. It is this that enabled Snap Tie to stage his rally. He's not an ex flat racer like the winner and third placed BLUE BAJAN (41) and clearly has a bit more stamina than that pair.

Harchibald apparently didn't quite get home in the soft ground at Cheltenham last March. And it looks like he needs a relatively fast surface to do so in a strongly run race like the Champion Hurdle. But Snap Tie was clearly the most disadvantaged of the first three here by the slow early pace. He is therefore the one most likely to step up this performance in the big one.

Snap Tie needs a fast surface and must also be kept fresh. If he were mine I'd be inclined to keep him fresh for Cheltenham after this run. He showed none of the signs of greenness that he showed on his seasonal debut and now looks seasoned enough to take his shot at the Champion Hurdle. Perhaps his connections could risk one more run if they can find fast ground for him. But it doesn't seem smart to keep him on the go during a period where soft ground is the norm.

This was Blue Bajan's best ever run. When he first ran over hurdles back in 2005 it looked like he didn't get home. He's stayed better since reverting to timber a couple of years later but is always going to be suspect on really stiff tracks or soft ground. I also suspect he is best when fresh. So I'd like to see him given a break following this run.

I can see Blue Bajan winning something big in the Spring pretty much anywhere but Cheltenham on relatively fast ground. It looks like he's improved.

STRAW BEAR (24) needs soft ground, so it was no surprise to see him flat to the boards soon after the sprint for home began. He doesn't have the scope to jump fences. But he remains arguably the best hurdler on soft ground. Outside of his abortive attempt at chasing he has won nine of the ten times he'd run on what my going allowances say was yielding or softer ground at seven furlongs or more (I'm counting Fibresand as yielding) but lost all thirteen times he's run on anything faster.

In addition to the ground being a problem, Straw Bear was reverting to hurdles for the first time after his three chasing starts. Horses normally take a run or two to adapt back to the smaller jumps in these circumstances. I now have my eye on him as a likely big priced winner the next time he gets his ground in a top race over hurdles.

PUNJABI (41) looked to be going better than the runner up when taking a heavy fall at the second last. I don't know whether he would have got by Harchibald if he'd stood up. If he had he would have continued his amazing run in small fields.

Punjabi did win a novice hurdle and a couple of class 6 contests on the flat in big fields. But he's lost ten times out of ten in fields of eleven or more in better company. If he'd won here it would have been his eighth success in nine tries on turf in fields of ten or less. It looks like he doesn't have the size to fight for position in big fields against good opposition. However in small fields he is clearly some horse.

PIERROT LUNAIRE had to swerve dramatically to avoid the prone Punjabi two out before falling heavily himself at the last. He was in trouble a long way before that though.

Pierrot Lunaire jumped the first fine as he disputed the lead. But he then overjumped the next three, taking them as if they were fences. Then when the pace picked up he was totally outpaced and dropped right back through the field dramatically. He looked like a three mile chaser running against two mile hurdlers.

Pierrot Lunaire got outpaced in sprint finishes in a couple of slow run races even against novices last term. Against these more experienced rivals he was totally floundering at such a short trip on fast ground. He did win over two miles at the Aintree Festival but that was off a searching early pace. His other win came on what race times say was heavy ground at Taunton. Clearly he needs to step up in distance now. I'd like to see him over at least two and a half miles next time, preferably on softer ground or around a more testing track. And it may be that he won't be able to show the smart form he did as a novice until he goes over fences.

MICHEAL FLIPS A GOOD PROSPECT

MICHEAL FLIPS (38) clocked a good time when winning at Kempton over Christmas and is clearly one of the better novice hurdles. This point to point winner is clearly built for longer than the two miles he tackled at Kempton and showed serious stamina in the closing stages. Despite going a faster early pace than in the Christmas Hurdle won by Punjabi he came home two fifths of a second quicker than they did in that contest from two out. His power packed finish saw him power away from his rivals, and a mistake at the last did nothing to stop him.

I have my doubts about whether Micheal Flips will have the pace to win the Supreme Novices. I'd have preferred him over longer. But the stiffer track should help him. And if he loses there he can always go up to two and a half miles afterwards. Next season he could easily develop into a top class novice chaser.

FIEPES SHUFFLE TOUGH TO PASS IN SMALL FIELDS

FIEPES SHUFFLE (39) is the best jumper that Germany has produced in years and proved it when making pretty much all the running to take the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton over Christmas. He would have won by a couple of lengths more if he hadn't fluffed the second last slightly. A bold leap at the last and a strong late rally on the run in saw him regain the lead and forge clear of the useful runner up PETIT ROBIN (39).

Fiepes Shuffle tends to get taken on and made to go too fast early on in big fields. But he has won eleven of the twelve times he's completed the course in races with eight or fewer runners. He can almost certainly go a bit faster than he did here and will always be a big threat in small fields, especially over shorter trips, on fast ground and around tight tracks where his stamina is not unduly tested.

Petit Robin was always bang there and went into a narrow lead when the winner fluffed tow out. He was soon caught again but kept on nicely to run almost as fast as he had at Newbury last time.

Most of the better two mile chasers need to be fresh to produce their best. I would bet on this being the case with Petit Robin as he is a light-framed sort. So I'd want to see him rested before his next run for at least five weeks.

PABLO DU CHARMIL (36) has already shown he needs to be fresh as he was here. He couldn't quite go with the first two in the closing stages and it may well be that he needs a softer surface to produce his best.

LORD HENRY (35) took the winner on up front and paid the penalty by tiring late. One of these days he's going to come across a race where he's not taken on for the lead. He's shown in the past that he's tough to pass in these circumstances.

TAKEROC (29) just couldn't go with the principals in the closing stages, as had been the case in the Tingle Creek. He's always looked like he wants a longer trip than two miles to me and will surely struggle at this level until he gets it.

TWIST MAGIC (25) has always been a short runner. And you could argue that his stamina was unduly tested by the strong early pace here. The problem is he was tiring an awfully long way out for that to be the case. He played up before the race and was reluctant to line up. In my experience horses quite often behave this way when they're feeling out of sorts and know a race is going to be stressful and painful. For this reason, seeing the way he faded, I am now dubious about Twist Magic's immediate prospects. Even on an easy track on fast ground in a small field I'll be inclined to oppose him. My feeling there's something wrong with him physically.

ASHLEY BROOK (19) jumped violently out to his left when he tired to finish far back in last place. He put up one of the best performances by a novice chaser in recent years when slamming subsequent Gold Cup winner War Of Attrition sixteen lengths at the Aintree Festival back in 2005. And he clearly retains the same level of ability. The problem is he keeps putting himself out of races with bad jumping. Basically he jumps very boldly but then fails to take the precautions other horses do when he begins to tire. This has led to him falling at the last when he had every chance in the Champion Chase and again at the fourth last when still moving strongly and a length and a half up against Monet's Garden and Kauto Star in last season's Old Roan Chase.

It now looks like those falls dented Ashley Brook's confidence in his jumping as he followed them with two clunkers over fences. After that his trainer switched him back to hurdles in an effort to boost his confidence. The trick worked as Ashley Brook proceeded to win the Haldon Gold Cup on his return to the bigger jumps. However he the jumped poorly once more and ran well below his best next time and did so again here. It looks like he now needs another confidence booster over hurdles.