THIS GOOSE COULD LAY A GOLDEN EGG

I would be pretty confident that we saw the winner of the Sun Chariot stakes in the Valiant stakes at Ascot. The 1-2-3, COY (40), CELTIC HEROINE (40) and SNOW GOOSE (39) all earned speed figures that mark them out as being among the top three year old fillies. The great thing is this was only a Listed race and the best form the first two had previously shown was against each other in a similar Listed contest at Royal Ascot. There can be no doubt that Coy and Celtic Heroine are Group 1 class since they've both now run Group 1 times twice. But, because their smart form has only been against each other, it looks like they're set to be seriously under-rated by every compiler of speed or handicap ratings. So, when they take on established Group racers in bigger races they'll offer real value.

Coy had been rested over five weeks since her big Royal Ascot second to Celtic Heroine. Celtic Heroine had not, and I'm convinced this is why she'd lost twice since. She simply bounced off that huge effort, as most three year old fillies do, and validated the US theory by returning to form after the five week period the theory lays down had elapsed.

I'm not sure Celtic Heroine will 'bounce' again off this run as it was a point slower than her Royal Ascot race. Still, I'd prefer to see her rested for five weeks plus. Ditto for Coy. In any event, five weeks hence I shall be very interested to see if either filly is entered for the Matron stakes at Leopardstown. And in October I'll be looking for their names in the declarations for the Sun Chariot stakes.

Snow Goose may actually turn out to be the best of the three, even though she came off slightly the worst here. I say this because it seems to me she's likely to improve when stepped up to ten furlongs. She certainly improved when stepped up from seven furlongs to a mile on her next to last start, and her pedigree clearly indicates she'll improve again at longer still. Her dam's progeny mostly get 12 furlongs plus, and she's produced the Cup horse Dusky Warbler. Her sire Polar Falcon gets plenty of jumps winners, while on the flat 10 of his other 25 fastest runners (judged by Raceform ratings) all stayed at least ten furlongs. So, with the dam providing so much stamina, I'd bet on Snow Goose being better over ten furlongs. Her trainer, John Dunlop, seems to agree, because he has her entered in the Prix de Psyche over ten furlongs on August 3rd at Deauville. Seeing that she's bred to stay I'd bet on her not bouncing off this effort. The fast race won't have tired her so much as the more speedily bred first and second. A similar phenomena seemed to occur in the very fast Coronation stakes won by Attraction. The only filly out of the top seven that didn't 'bounce' off that fast race was 'Kinnaird, the sole middle distance runner.

NATALIYA (37) ran a decent fourth to the above trio. She tired in the final furlong, just as she had in her two previous tries at a mile. Therefore her entry in the seven furlong Oak Tree stakes at Goodwood in a few days looks a smart move. It's quite possible she'll improve a bit over a furlong shorter. The Oak Tree stakes is a Group 3 but it will effectively be a drop in class from this red hot contest.

The fastest race of the week would normally be the King George, but a slow early pace and what may well have been the weakest field in years put paid to that. In fact, the three year old ALWAYS WAINING (38) ran the same course and distance more than a second faster at Ascot.

Always Waining strolled home by five lengths in a time that marks him out as a Group 3 performer. Yet he is still eligible for handicaps. He is unbeaten on fast ground at longer distances. So, if the current going prevails, he'll be awfully hard to beat in a few days time at Goodwood where trainer Mark Johsnton will be executing his familiar strategy of wheeling a winner back quickly before it's re-assessed. It looks like he's gearing up for another big assault at what must surely be his favorite meeting.

Another fast three year old performance at Ascot was that put up by VINANDO (36) in winning a class D handicap the day after the King George. Vinando wore a tongue tie here, so it may well be that he choked up when beaten 25 lengths at Newbury on his previous start. He's won the other two times he's run middle distances, so it's tough to say how good he is. He's still eligible for class C handicaps though, and that means he's probably worth following.

I confess that I hate sprinters because so many near random factors such as the draw and luck in running can have a major impact on their performance. Nonetheless I think the remarkably fast time clocked by the seven year old AWAKE (39) at Newcastle has to be worth mentioning. Awake has won a big sprint handicap before (the Rockingham Handicap at the Curragh), and on this form he could do so again.

Similar comments apply to MUTAWAQED (39) who won the valuable Skybet Dash at York. He'd have a chance in the Stewards' Cup on this run. He managed to beat the smart MACHINIST (38) into second. Machinist had a poor draw and still looks a decent proposition to take a big sprint handicap sometime this season.

Runner-up IMPERIAL ECHO (37) showed marked improvement, presumably because he was cut back to five furlongs. He's fast for a three year old, and I note with interest he's entered against his own age group over five furlongs at Goodwood in a few days time.

BALTIC KING (40) won the big sprint at Ascot in slightly faster time than Mutawaqed. He's actually hit 42 before on my ratings, so is certainly capable of winning a Group 2 or maybe even a Group 1 sprint. His trainer says Baltic King prefers an uphill finish and fast ground, which seems right looking at his form. He also says he may run him at the Curragh. Presuamably he's talking about the Group 2 Flying Five stakes in about five weeks time. Baltic King would have a major chance in that race, but there are so many smart sprinters in Britain he might struggle at a similar level if he stayed at home.

PIVOTAL POINT (40) did well to run Baltic King to a neck and looks a tough nut to crack in the Hong Kong Jockey Club sprint over the same course next time out. There are a lot of fast sprint handicappers around, but he's quicker than almost all of them.

Finally it's worth noting that the trend towards slow times in Group races for two year olds continued when Soar (31) clocked a slightly sub-par time for the Princess Margaret. As I've mentioned before, there are plenty of fast two year olds around that are set to make the jump from maiden and novice events to Group company. So I'd be looking for some upsets in the big two year old races to come. The established juvenile Group form is looking awfully weak.

GODOLPHIN HAVE THE 'WHERE WITH ALL' WITH JUVENILES

I wasn't particularly enthused about the new Godolphin policy of keeping all the horses with one trainer. I'd thought that having a two year old specialist like they had in David Loder was a smarter plan. Now I have to concede that I was probably wrong because Saeed bin Suroor went and turned out another potential Group 1 juvenile performer in WHERE WITH ALL (34) who earned the biggest speed figure we've seen from a two year old beyond six furlongs so far when blasting home over 7.5 furlongs at Beverley.

Where With All apparently got jarred up racing on the hard ground at Royal Ascot. Now he's looking like a smart prospect for the Racing Post Trophy. With a sprinter as a dam, he shouldn't logically be going much further than a mile. But these days, with everything so speedily bred, it's hard to be sure just how far Where With All will actually be able to run in Group company. Certainly he looks like a horse to follow. With him and Afrashad to call on, and surely plenty more juvenile talent to come, Godolphin are now looking like the team to beat in the big juvenile races to come. This runs against the pattern they've previously established when they had their juveniles in other yards. So I'd expect some real value to be on offer about the boys in blue in races like the Middle Park, the Dewhurst and the Racing Post trophy, not to mention the upcoming Gimcrack stakes, where Afrashad now looks more interesting than ever.

Another two year old worth noting at a slightly lower level is BRAG (32) who put up a Listed class time to take a five furlong nursery at Leicester. How good he is it's hard to say since he only had the three runs required to get a handicap mark before this. However, he looks good enough to take a much better nursery, a conditions race or a Listed contest.

KALAMAN (42) finally won a Group race at the seventh time of asking when taking the Scottish Derby from a strong field. He's clearly a quirky horse, and a difficult ride. He weighs anchor when he hits the front. Personally I would not want to support him in anything but a very small field - seven runners or less. I suspect he's intimidated by more runners. He certainly seems to hoover up all the traffic that's going.

Kalaman's need to hit the front very late would make him very well suited to the way US turf races are run. They invariably crawl in the early stages then sprint up the home straight. Home straights are very short in America and turf winners normally don't hit the front till well inside the last furlong. His half brother Kalanisi won the Breeders' Cup Turf and I'd like to see Kalaman shoot for that. Stamina wouldn't be a problem, given the way they run turf races in the states, and traffic would be less of a problem for Kalaman I would think, given the extended distance and slower pace which would make it easier for him to maneuver. In this regard it's interesting to note that Kalaman has won both times he's raced on tight tracks, and the track at Lone Star Park is unquestionably tight at 7.5 furlongs in circumference.

Runner-up GATEMAN (41) opened up new possibilities for himself by proving that he stays ten furlongs. His form beyond a mile is extremely consistent. I now wish he would go for the Arlington Million which he's entered for next month. If he set the sort of pace he normally sets in UK races he'd be 20 lengths clear after a mile at Arlington. The US jockeys would never chase a horse going that fast in early stages of a turf race over ten furlongs. And given the way he fights when the other horses catch up to him, Gateman would surely be tough to pass. He's won in the states before, and the Arlington Million would represent his best career chance of a big payday in my opinion.

Ikhtyar (40) ran another good speed rating to finish third. But the writing was on the wall before the race when John Gosden elected to put visors on Ikhtyar for the first time. Gosden uses headgear sparingly, especially on horses that have stud potential as it lowers their value. Over the past 11 years he'd applied visors or blinkers for the first time on his pattern race runners just 19 times, winning just once. Clearly the headgear is a sign that Gosden considers Ikhtyar's losing streak of seven races stems from temperamental problems. For this reason I'll be stirring clear of the horse from now on.

CHECKIT (40) ran another big race in a small field to finish a close fourth. On his previous start he'd lost by just a neck to Martillo, one of the top milers in Europe. In fact, in races with eight runners or less, his record is basically spotless. He won his maiden in a big field at two but has lost all 21 races he's contested with nine runners or more since. His optimum trip is probably nine furlongs. He's twice gone close in Group 1 company at that distance and earned speed ratings as high as 42. In fact he lost the valuable Dubai Duty Free over that distance by only a length after meeting the normal traffic problems he encounters in a field of nine or more.

Checkit is very consistent, and I have him marked down as a horse that's going to win a really big race at a fat price when he encounters a small enough field sometime this season. Maybe it will be at Goodwood in the Sussex stakes or the Celebration Mile.

AIRWAVE (40) is another horse that needs a small field. I predicted recently that Henry Candy would find some way to steer her into a race with 11 runners or less and he proved me right by putting her in such a contest at Ayr. She won without much fuss, taking her record in races with 11 runner or less to five wins from six tries.

Airwave has encountered traffic trouble most times she's raced in fields of a dozen or more, losing every time. So it makes perfect sense that her big target is the Nunthorpe stakes at York. That race has attracted a field of 11 runners or less in 20 of its last 26 running's. If it does so again Airwave will have a major chance of finally taking another Group 1. She's run faster on my ratings than any of the rivals she'll face there. It's tempting to take Corals 10-1 now. But I suspect Airwave will start around 8-1 or better on the day if there's a small field, so I'd wait.

MACHINIST (40) would not be without a chance in big sprints like the Nunthorpe judged by the remarkable time he ran on the same card as Airwave. Cut back to six furlongs by 'Sprint King' Dandy Nicholls, Machinist ran away from the smart Foley Millennium in a red hot class D handicap. He is insanely well handicapped and looks something of a good thing for the upcoming Skybet Dash at York, providing he gets a good draw.

The fast three year old handicappers keep on coming, and PETER PAUL RUBENS (38) joined their ranks when skating home by six lengths in a class C handicap at Sandown. Paul Cole reckons he left Peter Paul Rubens a gallop short when he lost at Royal Ascot and that the simply faield to handle soft ground on his first two starts. Otherwise, the horse has been a wide margin winner twice. It's hard to say how good he is. All I can say is that he ran a Group 3 time here. He should be hard to beat if he turns out for another 7f handicap at Goodwood next week as planned.

AFRASHAD RUNS A GROUP 1 SPEED RATING ON DEBUT!

AFRASHAD (37) ran a simply enormous speed rating when cruising home by a big margin on his debut at Lingfield. There's no question that he's the fastest two year old we've seen so far. The big question is 'will he show the same level of ability on grass?' This race was run on the Polytrack and Afrashad has an out and out dirt pedigree.

I suspect Afrashad will be able to reproduce his best on firm turf - at least this year. I think that two year olds are so uncoordinated that they tend to have a lot more reserve energy even when they're running as fast as they're able to at two. And they can call on this reserve energy when they're racing in what later will prove to be unfavorable circumstances. This is the only way I can explain why so many two year olds seem to win over distances and surfaces that they show a disliking for when they mature.

I'd say Afrashad has the Gimcrack stakes at his mercy on this showing, as long as the ground is fast. He looks a tough nut to crack in the Middle Park too. Though I kind of doubt he'll be able to stretch his stamina to seven furlongs later on. Saeed bin Suroor said that the might actually cut him back to five furlongs because he shows such speed.

SHAMARDAL (34) also ran a chunky speed figure for a juvenile debutante when romping by eight lengths on his debut at Ayr. He has a big reputation, a great physique and a classy pedigree that says he'll stay a mile, maybe even ten furlongs (and that he'd act on dirt, which may become interesting later on this year if he develops and gets entered for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile). He's entered for the Gimcrack stakes and will probably be a pretty warm favourite after this runaway success (though I'd have to prefer Afrashad). How good he is it's hard to say. All you can ever say after an easily attained fast time like this is that a horse is Group class. Whether he's Group 1, 2 or 3 only time will tell. Certainly there are a lot of indications he'll improve off this run. The vast majority of juveniles improve three points for their first start. That suggests Shamardal is probably closer to Group 1 than Group 3. We'll see.

SATIN FINISH (33) was the other two year old to clock a fast recent time. She romped away with a maiden race at Ripon and must have some chance in the Lowther stakes, though I notice Notjustaprettyface, who I gave a big write up to here, is also in that contest.

The most intriguing fast time in recent days was run by US import FONG'S THONG (38) who earned a Group 3 class speed rating when winning a pretty warm conditions race at Newbury on his UK debut. He's clearly a useful three year old and should have a major chance of following up this win if he tackled the Goodwood Listed contest motted by his connections as his next likely target.

At the same meeting GOLD RING (38) hit a big speed figure for the second time this season to win a class D handicap in well above average time. He obviously lacks a bit of pace, so it will be intriguing to see how well he does over hurdles if his trainer gets his way and switches him to jumps soon. Acceleration tends to be less of an issue over jumps, so God Ring could be a very useful novice hurdler. If he sticks to the flat he would obviously have a chance of taking the November Handicap, a race in which he got beat only a length into third place last season.

Also at Newbury, we saw a fast time run by the winner of the valuable Ladbrokes.com handicap when EVEREST (39) nosed out the very smart Vortex.

I confess Everest has slipped under my radar before but he's clearly a useful horse, even though he's now getting on a bit at age seven. His trainer says he gashed a leg earlier this season and that it took a long time to get him racing fit again after his enforced lay-off. So I think it's fair to disregard his first couple of runs this term. If we do that his record in races over his specialty, the straight mile, on good or slower is pretty darned remarkable. But for an unlucky short head loss when denied a clear run, he would have won the last five times he's tackled a straight mile on his ground.

Last year Everest ran pretty close in the Cambridgeshire on ground that was a bit quick for him. He'd have a decent chance of running even closer, maybe winning, if the ground was good or softer.

VORTEX (39) ran yet another huge race to go under by the narrowest of margins. My read of his form is that he's best around a turn. This was his tenth loss in ten tries on straight courses. Around a turn he's won nine of his last eleven tries, with the two losses coming at ten furlongs (which he probably doesn't stay) and at Goodwood (where he may well not have handled the undulations or perhaps the slow early pace).

Vortex has already won in pattern company and is a solid Group 2 horse on my speed ratings. I think he deserves a shot at Group company instead of being run in yet more races up the straight like the forthcoming Tote International Handicap at Ascot. Most Group races at his distance range are around a turn. Most big handicaps are up the straight.

The fastest recent time was run by MUQBIL (40) who ran a time that would win many Group 2 races to take a hot little Group 3 at Newbury. His trainer, John Dunlop, reckons that a dead flat track is essential for Muqbil. This certainly seems borne out by his form. Muqbil has won all four times he's run on absolutely flat tracks but lost all six times he's encountered courses with any undulations. Dunlop also says that fast ground is something Muqbil needs too.

Given his distance range, and his need for dead flat tracks and fast ground, I reckon the ideal place for Muqbil would be America. He'd encounter his ideal conditions on every single run and be facing inferior horses on turf. I'd bet on him winning several Grade 1 turf races in the states. If he sticks to Europe, the weather and the quirky designs of the courses are going to keep him from winning most of the time. And the higher quality of the opposition on turf is going to restrict him to wins in races below Group 1 class like this.

Runner-up VESPONE (39) has somewhat better prospects of finding his ideal circumstances locally, and I think his trainer, Saeed bin Suroor, already knows the key to him. I say this because jockey Kerrin McEvoy said after riding Vespone at the Capannelle that "He didn’t last it out and tired in the last half furlong. This is a much longer straight than at Longchamp [where he was second in the Prix Ganay two weeks earlier] and he didn’t handle it."

McEvoy seems to be right judged by Vespone's form. He has lost all six times he's raced on tracks with homestraights of half a mile or more. But he's won four times out of six on tracks with shorter homestraights. The two losses were a short head loss to the international Group 1 performer Surveyor in Dubai and a second place finish in the Group 1 Prix Ganay, where the heavy ground and extended ten furlongs probably stretched his stamina too much.

Vespone is still the same horse that won two Group 1's last year and looked a terrific ten furlong prospect for this season. He clearly possesses terrific early speed, but I do hope his connections don't make the mistake of cutting him back to a mile or of running him on a track with a very long homestraight again. I see he's entered at York which has a four and a half furlong homestraight and over a mile at Goodwood. This is not a good sign. Hopefully his campaign will focus instead on races like the Grosser Dallmayr Preis in Muchich next month, the Irish Champion stakes at Leopardstown the month after, and culminate in the Hong Kong Cup in December. These ten furlong Group 1 contests are all over Vespone's optimum trip of ten furlongs and feature suitably short homestraights where his trailblazing tactics won't make him a sitting duck for his rivals.

Actually, if he were mine, the race I'd be targeting with Vespone would be the Jockey Club Gold Cup on dirt at Belmont Park in September. After all, Vespone's brother, Vanishing Dancer, has won on the AW, and Vespone's terrific early speed is a major asset on dirt.

At Newmarket on the same day BENEVENTA (39) ran her fastest time to date to beat s useful field of fillies in the Listed Aphrodite stakes. My read of Beneventa's form is that she tends to encounter traffic problems when there are a dozen runners or more and that a mile is too short for her on fast ground. Toss out those sort of runs and her record shows seven wins out of nine, with the two losses being placed efforts behind Echoes In Eternity and Crimson Palace, both of whom I rate Group 1 class. Beneventa deserves a Group win and I'd be surprised if she didn't get it sometime soon. This run marks her out as one of the top fillies in training.

Runner-up SELEBELA (37) earned yet another good speed figure, and is beginning to look something of a good thing for the Galtres stakes at York, a race her trainer specializes in winning.

PORTRAIT OF A LADY (36) ran a good time for a three year old filly to take third. She could take a Listed race if she can be found one where she doesn't face such tough opponents as she did here..

PINTLE (36) won in fast time for a class D handicap at Leicester. She's clearly better than this class and is lightly raced so could be anything. Certainly she ought to be able to win again soon, seeing that her official rating still enables her to get into class D contests.

The three year old handicaps still haven't run empty of pattern class performers, and we saw another one when Godolphin's Leger entry INTO THE DARK (37) won in fast time at Newmarket. It's a bit late in the day to give Into The Dark the kind of preparation Leger winners seem to need, but he'd certainly be interesting in a Listed contest or a valuable handicap next time out.

ART TRADER (36) did well to chase Into The Dark home on his first run of the year. He too looks worth following.

LETS ROLL (38) is an even faster three year old handicapper than Into The Dark according to my speed ratings. He won a Ripon handicap in a time that indicates he is Group 3 class at least. He has won both times he's run beyond ten furlongs and looks a terrific prospect for the November Handicap which is apparently his big end of season target. I said earlier this season that Admiral was the best handicapped three year old in training. Now I'd have to say that title belongs to Lets Roll who will still probably be eligible for class D contests even after he's re-assessed for this win.

Runner-up PARTY PLOY (37) is also better than his official handicap mark suggests despite being six years of age. It looks to me that he's best in smaller fields (i.e. 11 runner or less). He'd be tough to beat in class D company if he encountered a small field in the immediate future.

Over jumps DOUBLE HONOUR (40) equaled his best lifetime speed rating when stepped up to an extended three and a quarter miles at Newton Abbot. The only previous occasions he'd faced such a stiff test of stamina were the two times he raced on soft ground over three miles. He won both times. Double Honour probably showed his best form on the flat in the longest flat race run in Britain, the Queen Alexandra stakes, in which he ran third twice. He seems set to show his best form over fences at equally extreme distances. I'd be inclined to oppose him at less than three and a quarter miles unless the going is soft. But at really long distances I can see him taking a big race after he makes his planned comeback at Chepstow in October. The Welsh Grand National looks an obvious target as it seems to suit young chasers like Double Honour.

I've mentioned RIVER CITY (36) here before, and he confirmed that he's a useful novice with another win in fast time at Stratford. There are quite a few good novice chasers around but River City looks to have a good chance of taking the valuable novice chase at Newton Abbot in August that his connections now say is his target.

SHOT TO FAME HAS A CHANCE IN THE SUSSEX STAKES

SHOT TO FAME (41) won a pretty hot Group 3 over a mile at Ascot and now begins to look rather interesting. My read of his form is that he now needs his seasonal debut, is a mile specialist and needs a turn. In fact, if you toss out his last two seasonal debuts and restrict attention to his runs around a turn at a mile Shot To Fame's record is terrific. His only two losses in six tries were a head loss to the ultra-game Gateman over an extended mile at Windsor (where he was only worn down very late) and an unlucky third at Sandown after he'd been denied a clear run.

It's tough to say quite how good a horse like Shot To Fame is when they win basically every time they're given a chance. He ran fast enough to win a good Group 2 here, so I would not discount his chances of winning the Sussex stakes if he's supplemented for it.

Runner-up GATEMAN (41) is a remarkably tough horse to get by in a small field. And he's almost unstoppable with ten runners or less over his specialist trip of an extended mile or nine furlongs. Only the top class Del Mar Dhow and Crimson Palace have managed to get by him in seven tries in such circumstances. Sadly there are only a couple of ordinary Group 3's for Gateman left this season in Britain, the Strensall stakes at York in September and the Darley stakes at Newmarket the following month. However there is another Group 3 worth three times as much coming up at the Scandanavian track of Ovrevoll soon. This is the Marit Sveaas Minnelop next month. I'd be interested in Gateman's chances if he runs there. Otherwise his big longer term shot of taking down a major prize at nine furlongs will be in the next running of the Dubai Duty Free which he ran second in this March.

HURRICANE ALAN (40) ran his usual solid race to take fourth. As I've mentioned here before, he's very consistent if you just give him a small enough field (11 runner or less). Otherwise he tends to hit traffic problems when delivering his usual late run. He's basically there in a heap with a whole bunch of other milers around the Group 2 level. But in a really small field (7 runners or less) I suspect he could beat almost anything at around a mile.

PENTECOST (40) ran another big race to weave through the field with his customary late surge to take a close fourth. On tracks with uphill finishes like Ascot he has a terrific record at a a mile - as long as he's had a race in the last three weeks. He almost certainly would have won the previous four times he'd run in these circumstances but for a slow start and subsequent traffic problems one one occasion. You could argue he was a bit unlucky here too. So when he returns to a track like Ascot or Sandown he'd be interesting in pretty much any class of race. He's set to race at Goodwood next time, a track that his record indicates will not suit him (he ran 18th the only time he ran there before and his trainer has expressed concerns about the suitability of the track). So, with any luck he's going to retain the 'inconsistent' tag that most people have stuck on him and be at big odds once more when he faces an uphill finish. I reckon he'd actually have a chance of taking the QEII, a race where he'd surely start at even longer than the 20-1 he went off at here.

The week's big race, the John Smiths' Cup, was won in solid Group 3 time by Arcalis (39). It seems that he is now to be sent hurdling, where he'd need to improve to become a realistic proposition for the Champion Hurdle or even the Supreme Novices'. Maybe he will, but I doubt he's going to offer betting value anytime soon.

The runner-up, PROMOTION (39) seems a better prospect to me. He's clearly very useful at ten furlongs as long as the ground isn't firm. I think he can take a big race at this trip sometime soon, whether it's a handicap or a Group contest.

ARKHOLME (35) won a high priced claimer in useful time for a three year old at Ascot. He'd been unlucky to come up against a smart horse for claiming company last time out in The Fun Merchant. But for this he would have won all three times he's run a mile. His trainer (now ex-trainer since he was claimed) says that he's best in blinkers and with cut in the ground. I'm not sure that's right (since the ground was good here according to my going allowance). But Arkholme certainly looks a decent sort, and one that's likely to be under-rated when he steps back into handicap company, given the widespread prejudice against claiming race runners.

DICKIE DEADEYE (36) is also likely to be under-rated next time out, in his case because he's so old. But the clock says he ran a seriously good time for a class E handicap when romping home at Chepstow. It seems that he improved markedly for the step up to twelve furlongs. He has relatively few miles on the clock for such an old horse. Now they've discovered he stays, I think he's going to win one or two more before he's forced up in class by the handicapper.

At the same meeting Felicity (37) clocked a fair time to win the Group 3 Daffodil stakes for fillies. But the horse to take out of the race is probably the close runner-up KINNAIRD (37).

Kinnaird had finished fifth behind Attraction in the freakishly fast Coronation stakes at Royal Ascot on her previous start. All six horses that have come out of that race have now lost next time. I'm convinced this is because they 'bounced' - i.e. they regressed off a fast and taxing recent race that knocked them out. IN fact, in the Chepstow race Kinnaird looked the likely winner for a long way till tiring close home. I suspect she was still feeling the effects of the Ascot race, like all the other fillies that ran it it.

Kinnaird proved here that she's better at ten furlongs than over a mile. I wouldn't discount the possibility that she'll improve again at a mile and a half. This would mean she'd have a chance in the Yorkshire Oaks. In any event, I'd say it's likely that Kinnaird will move forward off this run. So she's one to pay close attention to next time out.

Another three year old that may well be worth following is DUBOIS (36) who is a pretty powerful front runner. He failed to get home over ten furlongs last time but never saw another horse when cut back to a mile at Ascot. He's around Listed class on this effort but still eligible for handicaps. I look forward to seeing him at Goodwood, a track he's won over before.

Over jumps FIRST BALLOT (40) ran an extraordinarily fast time for the off season when streaking home from the smart Lord Of Illusion in a Straford novice chase. Make no mistake, First Ballot is a top class recruit to chasing. On fast ground I would regard him as an unstoppable force over fences right now. Even when the big jumps stables start wheeling out their stars in November I wouldn't care to oppose him on fast going. Long term he looks a good prospect for the Sun Alliance Chase. That's how good he is according to my ratings. And, since the Sun Alliance Chase is almost always run on the firm ground First Ballot seems to need, he looks rather a smart ante-post play for that race - if you can find anyone who'll lay you a bet at say 20-1 or bigger.

Runner-up LORD OF ILLUSION (36) trailed First Ballot home by eleven lengths. But in doing so he ran a whole lot quicker than the average novice chase winner. He certainly ought to be able to add some more novice chases to the two he took on his previous couple of starts.

FRIZZANTE IS A SERIOUSLY GOOD SPRINTER

A lot of people, including myself, were knocking the form of the July Cup. And I confess I was really expecting to award a low speed figure to the winner FRIZZANTE (44). But, however I play around with the numbers, the balance of probability says very strongly she deserves 44, and that's the joint biggest number I've given a horse all season. Clearly she is an exceptional sprinter.

What I find interesting about Frizzante is that she's by the UK's leading AW sire Efisio out of a dam who acted on the AW and whose progeny seem to have an affinity with the sand. In other words, from a pedigree point of view, Frizzante is the best European candidate we've seen for the Breeders' Cup Sprint in about a decade. Admittedly the US sprinters are a notch better than ours. But Frizzante's late running style is ideal for the Breeders' Cup sprint (the pace is usually crazy up front and the early leaders normally wilt). The only major doubt is her ability to handle a turn. I wouldn't discount the possibility of success in Texas for Frizzante if her connections decide to go that route.

Runner-up Ashdown Express (44) is a somewhat quirky horse. He's only ever won in small fields or at Newmarket, the widest track in Britain (quite possibly the world). His ultra-late running style tends to bring about traffic problems for him in most of his starts. In addition, in fields that are small enough to suit him, the early pace isn't normally competitive enough to help a deep closer like him. In other words, this race will have suite him perfectly, so it's understandable he put up a lifetime best effort (actually he's run Group 1 times on a couple of occasions before). Ashdown Express is fast, but he remains tough to win with, so I can't recommend him as a horse to follow.

Siliar comments apply to the fourth placed Cape Of Good Hope (41) who was losing for the twentieth time in a row. There are a couple of others that finished close up however that do look interesting. BALMONT (41) has to be one of these. He lost his racecourse debut last season, so one has to assume he'll come on a bit for this, his seasonal debut at three, especially seeing how he was cast in his box overnight and only just made the line-up here.

SOMNUS (41) is also worth keeping an eye on. The ground was actually on the fast side of good by my estimates, and I now have to go along with the general view that he really does improve a bit with give in the ground. To run so well on ground this quick was a terrific effort for him. He's earned a rating of 45 from me in the past, and on slightly slower ground I suspect he still can.

Our old pal MONSIEUR BOND (40) is another who would have preferred softer going at this distance. I'm still convinced he's essentially a seven furlong horse that needs soft ground to be effective at six. In fact I don't there's a horse around that could beat him at seven furlongs (he earned a rating of 44 from me at the distance earlier this year). So I hope he goes for the Prix Foret or maybe the Maurice de Gheest over 6.5f. He deserves a Group 1 and those are his best options.

ANTONIUS PIUS (40) ran a huge race from what was probably an impossible draw. He was drawn five and nine of the other first ten past the line were all drawn 11 or higher. The statistics show a significant bias towards high numbers in big fields on the Rowley Mile, so it's probable he was raing on slightly slower ground than his rivals. This being so, I'd bet on him being able to reproduce his rating of 43 that he earned over a mile last time if he's kept to sprinting. In addition, it's worth remembering that his biggest speed figures have been earned on lightning fast ground. So, looking at the entries for the Nunthorpe, and bearing in mind that those that beat him here are better at six furlongs, he looks like the one they all have to beat at York unless it rains.

AIRWAVE (39) met the traffic problems she always encounters when trying to deliver her trademark late run in a big field. She's now won four times out of five in what my studies show is best to consider a small field (11 runners or less). But she's yet to find a clear run through in her nine losing efforts in bigger fields. I'm thinking that trainer Henry Candy may try something different with her soon, like dropping her in class or trying her in something like the Prix Maurice de Gheest. Either way could see her ending up in a small field once more. In any event, it's pretty darned obvious that Airwave still retains all her ability. It's also pretty obvious why she hasn't been able to show it. So I'd bet on Henry Candy finding a way to get her into a suitably small field soon.

Two less exposed horses that may well be worth following are KEHAAR (37) and MISTER MONET (37) who pulled clear of the field despite racing on the wrong side of the course in a pretty warm looking 3YO handicap at Newmarket. Both are lightly raced and have a very progressive look about them. Both are also due to run at Goodwood in big handicaps. I'd keep an eye on them. They're at least Listed class according to my ratings and could be a tad better than that seeing how they raced on the slower side of the course.

I wouldn't go running away with the idea that Soviet Song (39) is some kind of a superhorse following her defeat of Attraction in the Falmouth stakes. I thought before the race that Attraction was likely to 'bounce' (i.e. regress after a recent very fast performance), and I'm convinced that is what happened.

Mark Johnston has talked about the Breeders' Cup Mile as the likely end of season target for Attraction. If she's rested now she would have a chance in that race according to my speed figures. But I think she'd have an even bigger chance in the Breeders' Cup Distaff on dirt. After all, she's by the UK's top AW sire and there are plenty of dirt influences on the dam's side of her pedigree. The dirt track at Lone Star Park is a bit bigger than the turf track which runs inside and is not even a mile around, so it would be easier for a horse used to much bigger ovals to navigate. In addition, Attraction would be able to race against fillies rather than face the world's top colts. More importantly, the Distaff would play to her running style. The Mile would not. US turf races are run at a crawl in the early stages followed by a wild 11 dash up the short homestraight in which the runners go around 11 seconds, even less for the last furlong. Johnston has stated that this sort of race does not suit Attraction. She's basically a front runner that grinds it out and is best used wearing her rivals out early and coasting the last furlong. You can do that on dirt, not on turf in the states.

I mentioned A ONE (37) here recently, and he again merited attention with a runaway win in what would have been course record time at Windsor if they hadn't switched to electric timing last year.

Even adjusting for the fact that the rail on the home turn was moved in several yards, there's no getting away from teh fact that A One put up a seriously good time. He's still ludicrously well handicapped and I don't think his winning run has ended yet.

The three year old handicappers continue to excel and ALDERNEY RACE (37) added to the big speed figures they've earned when winning a competitive class B handicap at Newmarket. His trainer, Roger Charlton, feels he's best on stiff tracks at six furlongs and will probably get seven. He only needs to improve a point on my ratings to have a real shot in Group 3 company, and I suspect he's going to do that without a problem. Meanwhile it makes sense to exploit the fact that he's still eligible for one more handicap win by shooting for something really valuable like the Totesport International Handicap.

Runner up MAHMOOM (36) was touted by a lot of people as a potential Guineas winner after some seriously impressive homework at the beginning of the season. It turns out that he didn't stay the mile. In fact, even after he won over seven furlongs last year, his jockey, Ted Durcan, wondered whether he really got the trip. Over six furlongs he's clearly useful and ought to be able to win soon.

TWO STEP KID (36) lost his unbeaten record at six furlongs in running a close third. But the stats show the draw favors the stands side in big fields on the Rowley Mile, and he won the race on the far side. I therefore suspect he can go a bit quicker than this when more favorably drawn and would not discount his chances in the Stewards' Cup.

After she'd tired late when running close in the valuable Goff's Challenge at the Curragh, the jockey on ANNATALIA (32) told trainer Meehan that the filly would win if dropped back to five furlongs. His prediction was proved right when Annatalia blitzed a field of maidens by six lengths on lightning fast ground at Bath over the minimum distance on lightning fast ground.

On this run Annatalia would have a decent chance in another big sales race, the Weatherbys Super Sprint at Newbury on July 17th. The key to her chance there may well be the ground. Most short runners like her don't even get the minimum distance with cut in the ground. Longer term, if she loses there, she looks the sort to take a decent nursery or a Listed race.

Jewel In The Sand (33) and Salsa Brava (33) earned speed figure only a tick faster than Annatalia when running 1-2 in the Cherry Hinton. This highlights the fact that we've seen pretty ordinary juvenile Group winners so far and that many of the unexposed maiden winners I've highlighted here recently are likely to offer real value when they start meeting them.

Over jumps, Winter Garden (37) demonstrated yet again that he has the ability or run second to anything when going down in a photo finish to the promising I AM SAID I (37) in a Uttoxeter Hunter Chase. The time was fast and the first two pulled a distance clear of the third.

Winter Garden has now run second four times in a row. His last win came in a Grade 3 over five years ago. Since then he has run second no less than 14 times. Clearly he's a chaser in more than one sense of the word. I Am Said I looks a much better prospect from a punting point of view. He lost his point to point debut but won his only other start by a distance last year. Now he's gone and shown that he's much better than a summer jumper. I imagine Martin Pipe has some valuable prize in mind for the horse. In any event, he looks likely to run up a sequence of wins against the moderate rivals he's likely to face at this time of year.

RIVER CITY (37) was another novice chaser to earn a chunky speed figure when beating a good field at Worcester. He adds to the impression that we're in for a few upsets in novice chases come November when the big stables start wheeling out their expensive new purchases. There are going to be several first season chasers that have run during the off season that are likely to prove too good for them.

NOTJUSTAPRETTYFACE LOOKS CHEVELEY PARK MATERIAL

We may well have see one of the top two year olds of the whole season a couple of days ago. I say this because NOTJUSTAPRETTYFACE (34) earned one of the biggest speed ratings I've given a two year old all year when coasting home on her debut at Kempton. Raceform noted that she was not fully fit for this run, won it easily, despite being slow into her stride and 'quickened'. All of these comments have formed the basis for one or more systems that I've developed over the years for identifying two year olds which are likely to show more than usual improvement. In addition, I know from my research that the vast majority of debutantes best their initial speed rating by at least three points within a few runs. So there are a whole load of indications that Notjustaprettyface may well be more than just ordinary Group class. She could very well be the next winner of the Group 1 Cheveley Park stakes. Certainly I would not care to oppose her right now, not against her own age and sex anyhow.

Runner-up AFRICAN STORM (31) was most unlucky to come up against such a smart winner. She looks a good thing to win a maiden race next time out.

LET IT BE (31) and BIENHEUREUX (31) hardly have the same potential as Notjustaprettyface. But they ran remarkably fast for the class when fighting out a photo finish for a seller at Pontefract. They pulled well clear of the field while doing so. Let It Be was bought in for a mere 6,600 guineas while Gay Kelleway claimed Bienheureux for only 6,000 pounds. I suspect those prices are going to look like bargains before the season is out.

Let It Be and Bienheureux rate as only around class D on this run. But the thing is they're both eligible for class F handicaps so they ought to be able to win in the immediate future without much trouble. As a bettor I love this sort of situation because I know punters are conditioned to believe that 'a mere selling plater' like Let It Be or Bienheureux has little chance in a 'proper' race, even a moderate one like a class E or F handicap. So I'm looking forward to getting some nice prices when these progressive young horses make the step up in grade next time. I doubt that they'd be risked in selling company again, but if they are I'd regard either as unbeatable.

Normally I'd be headlining the Eclipse stakes here, and I concede it was (marginally) the fastest race of the week. But the winner Refuse To Bend (42) earned a speed rating that is a tick below the average for a Group 1 race. By winning he confirmed my view that the older horses, with a couple of exceptions, are as slow as the very ordinary bunch of three year old colts that contested the Epsom and Irish Derbies. It strikes me that, Doyen, Powerscourt and Rakti aside, the older horses are now looking very vulnerable to smart three year old fillies like Latice and Ouija Board and to the large number of useful middle distance three year old colts now running in France, and headed by Bago.

It could well be that POWERSCOURT (38) proves to be the best older horse to come out of this race. He slipped twice on the home turn yet still ran close. I think it's high time they re-built the home turn at Sandown. I've seen far too many horses slip around it over the years, and it's particularly treacherous after wet weather such as that we had before this year's Eclipse. Powerscourt was the sufferer this time. He's earned a rating of 44 from me this season and that gives him every chance of posting another Group 1 win before the season is out.

RAKTI (35) has run faster than Powerscourt, and much faster than the winner. But he ran well below form here. The problem was almost certainly the one mentioned by trainer Mick Jarvis before the race - namely that this race came too soon after his big Royal Ascot run. Rakti has run unplaced only three times in his 15 race career. These were the three times he was brought back to the races less than three weeks after his last start.

I'm sure Mick Jarvis won't make the same mistake again and that after a break of five weeks or more we'll be seeing him return to his best. His big target almost certainly remains the Hong Kong Cup. But that's not till December. Meanwhile it would be interesting to see what Rakti could do if he were cut back to a mile which his trainer has continually talked about. The race to try the experiment is surely the QEII. The statistics for the race show that it frequently goes to a horse that stays a mile and a quarter - probably because it's run on such a stiff track and usually at a strong pace. The big obstacle for Rakti there would be the brilliant French three year old Diamond Green who has run terrifically fast and who will appreciate the small field he's likely to meet at Ascot (since he has a tendency to hit traffic).

PENTECOST (41) ran only slightly slower than Refuse To Bend when taking the valuable Scoop 6 handicap on the same card. He deserves a break from the string of red hot handicaps he's contested and may well get it next Saturday in the Group 3 Michael Page International Stakes at Ascot. He's unlikely to face such tough opponents in that race so ought to have a big chance of winning.

STA ANDREWS (41) ran a huge race to go under in a photo on what was only his sixth lifetime start. He ought to be able to win a big handicap soon as this run was a solid Group 2 effort on the clock.

Third placed UNSHAKEABLE (39) is another who showed the ability to win a big handicap. While fourth-placed TAHREEB (39) confirmed that he is one of the better three year old milers. In fact, his jockey felt that he might have won if he hadn't been left in front too soon since Tahreeb is one of those horses that tends to ease himself up in these circumstances.

BOSTON LODGE (38) finished well to get close and earn a good speed rating. He ran a humongous time (42 speed rating) when losing a valuable Nad Al Sheba handicap in a photo during the winter. I've had my eye on him as a future big race winner ever since, and this promising run confirmed that view.

Returning to our seemingly never-ending theme of fast 3YO handicappers, I have to note that PRIMUS INTER PARES (36) earned a very nice speed rating to win a decent handicap at Haydock. His official rating is high, and he has the look of a horse that will be sold to race overseas pretty soon. Meanwhile though I'd say he's set to go close next time out.

An even faster three year old is CROCODILE DUNDEE (40) who continued his steady improvement with a fast win against good older horses in a Listed race at Sandown. On this run Crocodile Dundee has a serious chance of winning his next objective which is the Group 3 Scandanavian Open Championship in Denmark on August 1st. After that he'd be one of the more interesting St Leger prospects if his connections chose to go that route.

Runner-up SILENCE IS GOLDEN (40) validated the idea that mares improve when they're in foal by getting to within a neck of the winner. She's been unlucky to come up against some seriously smart horses and finish second a lot of times. I imagine they can squeeze one more run out of her and that it will be in the upcoming Group 3 Golden Daffodil stakes at Chepstow on the 11th of this month. If she reproduces this run she really ought to win.

Pongee (38) is another useful older filly and showed what she can do by putting up a solid time to win the Lancashire Oaks. However, there are so many good fillies about this year that I can't recommend following her. It may well be that our old friend (see Irish reports) DANELISSIMA (37) is the horse to take out of the race. She raced a bit green before rallying strongly late in the race. She'd originally been scheduled to run in the Irish Oaks but has now run three big speed figures in the space of a few weeks. I imagine she'll now be given a break. The Park Hill stakes looks an obvious target for her. She ought to stay the trip and the very best three year old fillies have other more valuable targets around the same time, so she may well rate as the fastest runner in the line up on the day.

Sticking with the fillies, ALINDA (34) earned an unusually high speed figure for a class E handicap when scoring impressively at Leicester. She'd been off for a while with a throat infection and her trainer feels she'll come on for the run. How good she is I can't say. All we know is that she's won both her starts following her debut and is eligible for much lower class races than a horse of her ability should be allowed into. That means she ought to be worth following.

LOYAL TYCOON (39) ran a monster speed figure at Epsom last year and repeated the trick a few days ago. He really does seem to love this course. He goes well at other courses with downhill sections too, so if he gets a good draw he's be interesting in the Stewards' Cup.

Another sprinter worth noting is HARTSHEAD (37) who won in fast time at Carlisle. He's improved dramatically since being cut back to sprint trips and was winning for the second time in a row here. I'd be wary of betting he won't make it three in a row id he sticks to class D or lower.

I'd be careful about opposing ALKAASED (40) next time out too seeing the way he took apart a smart fielkd of handicappers in the valuable Old Newton Cup. In doing so he recorded a solid Group 2 class time and clearly rates as the one the logical favorite for the Ebor now.

It's hard to read the form of Alkaased. It could be he's best on dead flat tracks. Or it might be that he runs to what I call the rest pattern - that is, he's good for his first two starts of the season but then needs a break of five or six weeks thereafter to run well again. IN any event, most horses that run as fast as he did here win something big.

Over jumps BE THE TOPS (36) ran an unusually good time for a summer jumps race when winning an ordinary handicap chase at Southwell. I note that he's won three of the last four times he's run over two and three quarter miles. He's surely going to win another time or two given the moderate opposition he'll be facing before the better jumpers start running in November. I imagine his trainer, Jonjo O'Neill has a race mapped out for him at the Galway Festival.