FORTUNES TURN ON A TURN FOR PASTORAL PURSUITS

It's easy to be wise in hindsight but I'm still kicking myself for not spotting the screamingly obvious pattern in the form of PASTORAL PURSUIT (43) before he won the July Cup. Trainer Hughie Morrison told reporters last September that he was concerned about running the horse around a turn. Sure enough Pastoral Pursuits proved him right by running unplaced around a turn in both the Prix de la Foret and the more recent Queen Anne Stakes where he actually slipped up going around the bend.

I'm always saying that if you can spot a pattern in a horse's form and it's backed up by a trainer's observation then it's unlikely to be a coincidence. Pastoral Pursuit's seeming preference for a straight course certainly doesn't seem to be. Since running second on his racecourse debut he has run in six races on a straight course and won every single time. He's yet to score in three starts around a turn.

I think it's a smart move to steer Pastoral Pursuits towards the Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville rather than the Sussex stakes. The Sussex stakes is run around a turn whereas the Deauville race is up the straight. In addition the Maurice de Gheest is invariably one of the weakest Group 1's run each season, so I see Pastoral Pursuits as rather a good thing to complete a Group 1 double in that race. He ran awfully fast here and will almost certainly be the best horse in the Deauville line up.

TAX FREE IS A SMART YOUNG SPRINTER

As I'm often saying, fast sprinters are a dime a dozen in Britain. Nonetheless I still have to mention the fast time run by TAX FREE (39) at Newmarket. In winning the valuable totesport.com handicap he earned a Group class speed rating from me.

Tax Free has won all three sprints that he's contested and is clearly a smart horse over short trips. Just how smart is hard to say till something pushes him to run his best. He's certainly well ahead of the handicapper though, so logically he ought to be steered towards a big handicap rather than a pattern contest next. I know that three year olds have a rotten record in the Stewards' Cup but Danetime showed a member of the classic generation in 1997 - and most of the other 72 three year olds that have lost in the last 18 runnings of the big race were nowhere near as fast as Tax Free. I hope he runs at Goodwood because I'd give him a good chance.

LUCKY SPIN CAN BEAT COLTS IN GROUP COMPANY

It looks like Richard Huges was right to say LUCKY SPIN (40) is best over six or seven furlongs after her Group 3 win back in May. She tired badly to finish far back when stepped up to a mile for the first time next time out but ran away with another Group 3 at York last week when cut back to six furlongs.

Lucky Spin has now won five of the seven sprints she's contested since losing her racecourse debut. One of the losses, and much her worst sprint run ever, came at Goodwood, so I'm rather hoping she avoids the big meeting at the Sussex track. I just don't know whether she acts on the course. Otherwise I'd be pretty confident of her winning another Group race this term. In fact my ratings say she's run fast enough to beat colts in Group 3 maybe even Group 2 company.

GOLDEN ACER IS ONE OF THE BEST TWO YEAR OLDS

I once carried out a study of Richard Hannon's two year old runners and found that they win at an increasing rate all the way up to their fifth run. He seems to bring them along more slowly than other handlers, so you can expect one of his juveniles to improve on its first two or three starts. This has certainly been the case with GOLDEN ACER (37) who ran his best ever race when taking a Novice Plate at Chepstow on his fourth start.

I'm hoping that Golden Acer now goes for the Molecomb Stakes at Glorious Goodwood rather than his alternative target at Deauville. I can see him starting at decent odds at Goodwood and I find it hard to name a horse that could trouble him at the Molecomb trip of five furlongs off this run.

One horse that did trouble Golden Acer is SUPERCAST (35) who pulled eleven lengths clear of the rest to get to within a length and a quarter of Hannon's flyer. In doing so he earned a speed rating from me which indicates he'll have a real chance if he takes up his engagement in the Gimcrack Stakes. Like Golden Acer, Supercast is improving with every run and looks set to win in pattern company soon.

AUTUMN GLORY RUNS A GROUP 1 TIME AGAIN

I gave AUTUMN GLORY (42) a big write up here when he ran second to the brilliant German runner Martillo in the Prix de Muguet at Saint-Cloud in May. Last Saturday he ran just as fast at Lingfield. He did so when winning Europe's first Group race on the All Weather, the Ladbrokes Silver Trophy.

I mentioned after his big run at Saint-Cloud that my read of Autumn Glory was that he disliked undulating tracks. Even the quite short downhill section at Longchamp seems to unsettle him. I was therefore almost put off tipping him at Lingfield since there is a one in 83 downhill gradient from the six furlong mark to the finish. I eventually figured the gradient was so slight it wouldn't trouble Autumn Glory. But trainer Geoff Wragg was obviously also worried and clearly shares my opinion as he told reporters in the winner's enclosure that "coming downhill is not his cup of tea."

Wragg now plans to take Autumn Glory to Maisons-Laffitte for the Prix Messidor in two weeks. Autumn Glory's record on flat or nearly flat tracks going into that race will read seven wins from eight tries, with his sole loss being in Group 1 time to Martillo. I don't think I'd want to oppose him making it eight out of nine at Maisons-Laffitte.

COURT MASTERPIECE (42) ran a huge race to lose by just a neck to Autumn Glory with the very smart AW runner Vortex nearly three lengths back in third. It now seems clear that Court Masterpiece is better at this trip of a mile rather than the seven furlongs he normally races over. In fact but for a half length loss in the Britannia when racing on the wrong side of the course and this narrow defeat by what I rate a Group 1 horse Court Masterpice would now have won four of his five runs at a mile. One of his wins at a mile was a length defeat of the dual Group 2 winner Hurricane Alan.

Court Masterpiece is entered in both the Sussex Stakes and the totesport mile (formerly the Golden Mile) at Glorious Goodwood. I'm rather hoping that he goes for the handicap rather than the Group 1 race. High weighted horses have won the Golden Mile and I'd give him a serious chance of replicating their feat on my speed ratings.

MULLINS BAY CAN WIN IN GROUP COMPANY

I gave MULLINS BAY (38) a big write up here after he'd run second in incredibly fast time to Imperial Stride at Royal York. I awarded Imperial Stride a Group 1 speed rating for that race, and he certainly validated that opinion when winning a Listed contest by a dozen lengths next time out. Now Mullins Bay has gone and franked the form again by winning the valuable John Smiths Cup by three lengths.

Mullins Bay didn't run as fast as he had at the Royal meeting, but he didn't have to, as he clearly had a fair bit in hand.

Kieren Fallon told Channel 4 after his big win that he thought Mullins Bay "might prove to be better than a handicapper." I think that's obvious and that we'll see the horse prove competitive in Group races later this season. Meanwhile the more interesting question is 'just how good is Imperial Stride?'

THE ECLIPSE WAS PLAIN AWFUL

The 2005 Eclipse Stakes was initially being billed as one of the best renewals ever. But a series of events conspired to turn it into a joke of a Group 1 race.

First, many of the fastest entrants dropped out. Then many of those that remained ran way below form for one reason or another.

Italian ten furlong star Altieri (32) had ludicrously bad luck. His trainer asserted before the race that only his regular rider knew how to get the best out of him. But both the rider and the trainer got stuck in transit and had to miss the race. Frankie Dettori was then booked as a substitute, presumably on the grounds that he's best friends with Altieri's work rider and therefore would know the horse's quirks. Amazingly Dettori was then injured and yet another jockey had to be found.

It's not surprising in the circumstances that Altieri ran an odd sort of race, getting outpaced and then weaving through the field to take third. Given the weakness of the contest I suspect that with his normal rider aboard he would have won.

Starcraft decided to go berserk before the race, blowing whatever chance he may have had. Diamond Green and Hurricane Alan clearly failed to stay. So the race was left to be fought out by the three year olds Oratorio (34) and Motivator (34).

Okay, I concede that the slow early pace must have had an impact on the final time. But if it had a really big impact then the sectional times should have shown a blisteringly fast final furlong. IN fact these show that Motivator ran only as fast in the final furlong as David Junior had in a much lesser race over the same course the day before when the going was slower.

I'm deeply suspicious of this form and will be opposing the first two when they tackle older horses in Group 1 company again.

CONFIDENTIAL LADY THE FASTEST JUVENILE FILLY SO FAR

It might seem a bit early to be talking about the Fillies' Mile but CONFIDENTIAL LADY (36) ran fast enough at Beverley to be a solid candidate for that race. I awarded her the biggest speed rating I've given a two year old filly so far this season.

What makes Confidential Lady's fast time even more meritorious is that it was achieved over seven and a half furlongs. Fast times by two year olds at five and six furlongs are pretty common. At seven furlongs plus they are rare.

I suspect that because she's so far been restricted to minor Northern tracks Confidential Lady is going to be seriously under-rated by many pundits. As a result when she makes the inevitable step up to Group company I envisage getting a very nice price about her. Right now I wouldn't care to oppose her at longer trips, certainly not with any juvenile filly we've seen to date.

Runner-up JEU DE MOT (34) ran a terrific race on his seasonal debut. This stoutly bred, handsome colt ran green and shifted his ground but still stayed on strongly. A maiden looks a formality for him and I can easily see him taking some black type soon even though he obviously won't come into his own till racing over middle distances next year.

Third-placed CRITIC (34) is quite speedily bred but holds a Derby entry and showed why by showing terrific improvement on his first try at a longer trip. He too looks like he'll be doing better over longer trips next year. Nonetheless he'd be a slam dunk in a maiden and ran fast enough to be worth trying in pattern company already.

BORDERLESCOTT LOOKS TOUGH TO BEAT AT HAMILTON

I don't like recommending British sprinters to follow because Britain is so heavily overstocked with fast 5-6f horses. However I must make a note of the three year old BORDERLESCOTT (37) who ran unusually fast for the class when winning a moderate sprint handicap at Haydock.

Borderlescott has now won both times he's run 6f following a recent run. He beat older horses here and is now set to drop back in class to tackle his own age group at Hamilton later this month. He should be tough to beat there.

ASSERTIVE NOT THAT SMART

Assertive (34) won the Listed Rose Bowl Stakes at Newbury in Group 3 time for a two year old. He's obviously a useful sprinter but we're now seeing an unusually large number of fast two year olds for so early in the season. Therefore, although in a normal year Assertive would have a real chance of taking his big target, the Gimcrack, this year I foresee major problems for him.

CRISTOFORO STILL WELL HANDICAPPED

There can't be many horses as versatile as CRISTOFORO (37). He has won eleven of his last seventeen starts in an extraordinary variety of circumstances. He's won on the Equitrack and on Fibresand. He's won on soft ground and firm. He's won on the flat and over hurdles. He's won at nine furlongs at two miles. He's won on tight tracks and galloping ones. And he's won coming from off the pace and making his won running.

The time that Cristoforo ran when winning at Sandown the other day suggests that despite all his wins he is still well handicapped and eligible for races below this true class.

Cristoforo is probably best on fast ground. Throw out his runs on anything but a fast surface or the AW and his record actually shows ten wins from his last eleven tries. Given this record and seeing how fast he can run I'd bet on him being able to step up in class and keep up his incredible strike rate on firm ground.

TRAYTRONIC CAN WIN SOMETHING BETTER

TRAYTRONIC (41) ran a really good time to win a hot little conditions sprint at Haydock. Reading his form it seems to me that he is at his best on fast ground when the going is good or faster. In such circumstances he's run up to his best almost every time. But on tracks with any gradients at all he he run unplaced six times in a row.

Seeing how often he encounters traffic when making his run I suspect that Traytronic prefers small fields such as the one he met here rather than the big ones he meets in handicaps. His official rating is sure to rocket upwards as a result of this race, so I hope that prompts his connections towards going for a Listed or Group 3 contest. I think that's where Traytronic's future lies now, if only because field sizes in pattern races tend to be smaller.

MOMTIC DESERVES TO WIN A BIG RACE

MOMTIC (39) had earned Group 2 class speed ratings from me on three occasions this season before narrowly losing the valuable Totescoop6 Handicap at Sandown. Now he's gone and run yet another fast time.

There isn't a horse in training that has run more Group class times this season than Momtic according to my speed ratings. He looks certain to win Group races in time. Meanwhile he is still eligible for handicaps and looks nailed on to win a big one sometime soon. I see that he's entered in the John Smith's Cup. If he gets the required inside draw there I'd be tempted to back him.

The winner Ace Of Hearts (39) is normally best in small fields if my analysis is right, and I note with interest that the Racing Post reported that this was 'an unusually clean-run' race for one which featured such a big field. IN a normal race with this many runners I suspect Ace Of Hearts would encounter enough traffic to ensure he ran below form. So I can't recommend following him as he seems set to contest more races like this in the immediate future.

Third-placed Moonlight Man is another I don't much like since he's now lost 16 times in a row. The great turn of the century gambler Pittsburgh Phil once said "never bet a horse that only wins once or twice a year". It's been nearly two years since Moonlight Man last entered the winner's enclosure.

ZEITGEIST IS GROUP CLASS

ZEITGEIST (38) earned a Group 3 speed rating from me when winning the Old Newton Cup at Haydock.

My read of Zeitgeist's form is that he runs to what I call ' the rest pattern'. That is, he's at his best on his first two starts of the season but then needs a break of at least five weeks to run well again. All his four wins to date have conformed to this pattern. This being so, the timing of the Ebor seems to fall just right for Zeitgeist. But if he's brought back within five weeks I'd be inclined to oppose him.

CESARIO IS A THREAT TO THE BEST

The Japanese do tremendously well with their infrequent forays overseas - especially in turf races. Now they look to have produced another star in CESARIO (41) who romped home in America's richest turf race for 3YO fillies, the American Oaks at Hollywood Park. In doing so she got much closer to the standard time than any of the other turf races on the card which included two Graded stakes. In fact she ran 1:59.03 for the mile and a quarter, only 1.4 seconds off the track record.

Cesario looked really impressive as she strode home clear of her rivals at Hollywood. She's a big, strong, imposing filly with a raking stride. Indeed, she looks more like a colt. The thing that struck me most though was that in an unusually strongly run race for a US turf contest she struck for home a long way out and got her rivals in trouble with three furlongs still to run. In a normally (i.e. slow) run American turf race I can see Cesario getting done for speed in a sprint finish. She looks likely to be better suited to the European style of racing to me.

Cesario isn't entered in any European races at this point as far as I can trace. But she'd be a threat in any contest against her own sex on this showing. She has now won five of her six starts to date (including the valuable Japanese Oaks over twelve furlongs). Her sole loss came in the Japanese 1000 Guineas where she finished like a rocket to go under by a head. I'd love to see Ceasrio go for the Yorkshire Oaks or Prix Vermeille. She'd have a major chance in either race.

David Wachman's LUAS LINE (37) improved a little for the step up to ten furlongs to take fourth and franked the form of Proclamation's big York win in the process. I'd like to see Luas Line run over this sort of trip again back in Ireland. On this form she can certainly win a decent middle distance Group race for fillies.

CITY OF ESTEEM IS GROUP CLASS

CITY OF ESTEEM (38) won a class 1 handicap at the big Hamburg meeting in Group class time. He has now won four of the five times he's run beyond a mile on going rated 4.8 or faster on the official German scale (which basically means good or faster).

The half length runner up ACAMBO (38) came out to win another class 1 handicap at the same meeting a week later, validating what the clock says, namely that this was a red hot race.

Given fast ground I can see City Of Esteem taking a Group race before the season is out. Acambo is clearly one to keep an eye on too. But for City Of Esteem's intervention he would have been completing a hat trick when winning his next sta

DASH TO THE TOP SHOULD LIVE UP TO HER NAME

When I saw DASH TO THE TOP (42) entered for a Listed race at Salisbury the other day I drew a line through her name with some confidence. Experience has taught me that it pays to oppose Luca Cumani's horses on their seasonal debuts. What's more, a study I'd just carried out showed that he'd only won three times with a filly in pattern company on its seasonal debut in the past dozen years - and on each occasion the filly turned out to be a Group 1 winner.

What I should have considered is that Dash To The Top had gone close to winning a Group 1 on her previous start. So she might well be as good as Cumani's previous rare female debut patter winners. It certainly looks that way now because she won in Group 1 time.

On this run Dash To The Top is going to be hard to beat even if she takes on older colts in Group 1 company. If she sticks to races against her own sex I would not care to oppose her.

Runner-up LA PERSIANA (40) had won all three times that she'd previously run a mile and a quarter on fast ground. She buried the useful third-place finisher Summitville by five lengths and is clearly a smart filly in her own right. My speed ratings suggest that she is capable of winning a Group race against her own sex while the going remains favorable, and I'd bet on her doing exactly that sometime this Summer.

IMPERIAL STRIDE CAN RUN FASTER

IMPERIAL STRIDE (38) earned a Group 1 class speed rating from me when winning the Wolferton Stakes. Last week he showed what a Group 1 horse should do in a Listed race when bolting up by no less than seventeen lengths in Newmarket's Fred Archer Stakes.

Imperial Stride didn't have to run as fast as he had at York. But he did enough to suggest that my estimate of his ability is somewhere close to the mark. I look forward to seeing him tackle better company soon.

BUREAUCRAT IS SERIOUSLY GOOD

There haven't been many fast times run in races beyond a mile for three year olds so far this season. So it makes perfect sense that we should now start seeing some future middle-distance stars emerge in minor races. Most probably we saw one when BUREAUCRAT (37) cantered home in a Classified Stakes at Salisbury in a time that would give him a shot in virtually any race restricted to this year's crop of (so far) moderate middle distance three year olds.

This was the first time Bureaucrat had run further than a mile. Clearly the step up to ten furlongs improved him immensely.

The race I'd love to see Bureaucrat in next is the valuable ten furlong handicap for three year olds at Goodwood (it was called the aldbrokes.com handicap last year). He showed here that he could handle ten furlongs on a right-handed switchback track and fast ground. So he ought to be ideally suited to the circumstances that he'd encounter at Glorious Goodwood.

DANCER'S SERENADE CAN WIN SOMETHING DECENT

Another three year old that looks interesting for the big ten furlong handicap at Goodwood is DANCER'S SERENADE (37). He won by a street at Newcastle last Saturday, earning a pattern class speed rating from me for the second time. He's clearly a progressive three year old who is well suited to ten furlongs.

RACE TO THE MUSIC IS GROUP CLASS

RACE TO THE MUSIC (36) earned the biggest speed rating I've awarded a two year old debutante so far this season when scoring in taking style at Lingfield. It's tough to say just how good he is at this point. He's certainly Group class on the clock and could easily turn out to be good enough for Group 1 races like the Middle Park.

Runner-up POWER POLITICS (33) also ran a seriously fast time for a debutante, and did so depsite behaving greenly in the preliminaries. He could be anything and would be a near certainty for a normal maiden.

DON'T UNDER-ESTIMATE DIXIE BELLE

I have a lot of time for Mick Quinlan. He's a very creative trainer who has done very well considering the quality of horses he has been given so far. Last Saturday he showed what he could do with a decent horse when taking the Listed Empress Stakes at Newmarket with DIXIE BELLE (35).

Dixie Belle now ranks as one of the best two year old fillies and deserves a shot at the Lowther Stakes where I'd give her a serious chance.

WHY NOW LOOKS INTERESTING FOR LATER

Fast sprinters are a dime a dozen in Britain. Nonetheless I think the recent performance of WHY NOW (37) at Carlisle is still worth noting. Why Now won in unusually fast time for the class and is a lightly-raced, improving three year old filly. She could easily be good enough to win a decent handicap. Indeed, if only there were Listed sprints for her age and sex she could pick up some black type.

Why Now's trainer told the Racing Post that the filly is now in need of a break. The plan is to bring her back in the Autumn apparently. At that time I'll be very interested in her chances in class 4 or lower. I'll also be keen to see if her connections opt to step her up in trip, seeing that she's bred to go a whole lot further than the five furlongs she ran here.

PARADISE ISLE CAN WIN A LISTED RACE

PARADISE ISLE (37) won in decent time at Newmarket, and my speed ratings say she can actually go a bit quicker if pressed harder than she was there.

I concede that Paradise Isle is a bit of a quirky horse. She tends to pull hard and shift her ground. This almost certainly explains why she's run into traffic problems so often in big fields. It's also the most likely reason she has yet to show her form around a turn or on anything but fast ground.

For most horses like Paradise Isle, the cut-off point where a field gets big enough for interference to increase to the point where they get in trouble is 12 runners.

So far Paradise Isle has run seven times in fields of 11 or less on good or faster ground up the straight. She won five of those races. In one of the losses she hung left and right on ground that was actually edging towards yielding and got beat just half a length. In the other she was slowly away and met traffic problems three times in the race before again losing by just half a length.

If Paradise Isle can be found a Listed sprint with 11 runners or less during the Summer she'll be hard to beat.

ALPINE REEL CAN WIN A BIG HANDICAP

It looks like Walter Swinburn has a nice horse on his hands in ALPINE REEL (36). This well-bred four year old has now won both of his starts and scored in fast time at Windsor last Monday. I rated the performance close to Listed class. But it seems likely that Alpine Reel is still going to be eligible for low grade handicaps, seeing that he went into the race with an official mark of just 70.

It's very hard to know exactly what suits Alpine Reel at this stage. All I can say is that he looks a very interesting candidate for a big handicap sometime soon.