WASSEEMA IS TOP CLASS

WASSEEMA (40) earned what is a solid Group 1 speed rating for a filly when blasting home by seven lengths in the Listed Valiant Stakes at Ascot. She was thought of as a 10000 Guineas candidate earlier in the year and would have had a major chance of winning that race on this run.

Clearly a course with the equine behavioral expert Steven Dyble (Yarmy) has helped. But it may simply be the step up in trip that was the main factor in Wasseema's improvement here. After all she's now unbeaten in two tries beyond sprint trips.

Wasseema can win pretty much anything off this run, so I would be wary of opposing her the rest of this season.

DABBERS RIDGE AND UHOOMAGOO MUST BE FOLLOWED

DABBERS RIDGE (41) and UHOOMAGOO (41) fought out the finish of what I rated the fastest handicap of the season, the totesport International at Ascot. They both look to be very smart horses over seven furlongs.

Dabbers Ridge has won the last three times he's run seven or seven and a half furlong, and has earned really good Group class speed ratings from me on each occasion. He's only four so I'd bet on him making his mark in Group company before long.

Uhoomagoo is eight years of age but is better than ever. He's developed into some machine over seven furlongs on fast ground and would have been winning for the fourth time in a row in these circumstances if the photo had gone the other way.

Uhoomagoo won a big seven furlong handicap at last year's Galway Festival. I like his chances of pulling off the double – unless it rains of course.

HURRICANE RUN WINS A SLOW RUN KING GEORGE

I wish there was a law against slow run races. But there isn't. So I'm left to deal with contests like this year's King George with little guidance from the clock.

Hurricane Run (31) won the race, and he did well to do so since he got caught flat-footed when the pace quickened and needed to rally strongly to score. In doing so he joined Ribot, Ballymoss, Mill Reef, Dancing Brave, Lammtarra and Montjeu as winners of Europe's two biggest races (the Arc being the other one of course). That's quite some feat but I'm still not convinced about Hurricane Run because he has yet to run a seriously fast time. In addition I strongly suspect he was much better suited to the circumstances of this race than his two biggest rivals.

ELECTROCUTIONIST (31) finished second but I'm now going to reverse my opinion about his distance preference.

I've been studying the times of the races Electrocutionist ran in Italy. Previously I'd only made rough ballpark speed ratings for them. But on closer examination I see that on the two occasions he ran a mile and a half in Italy the final time of the race was very moderate - three or four seconds slower than what it should have been. This leads me to conclude that the early pace was very slow.

The only time Electrocutionist has gone a mile and a half in a truly run event was when he ran his worst lifetime race in the Canadian International last year. The question has to be asked: Does Electrocutionist really stay a mile and a half in a truly run race? His form seems to say 'probably not' and his pedigree doesn't give us much encouragement either.

Electrocutionist's sire, Red Ransom, doesn't get many 12 furlong horses. When he does it's the dam that provides the necessary stamina. So let's look at his dam Elbahaa. She did run second in a bad race over a mile and a half but her other three foals have been non-stayers. First there was Hatalan, a British maiden who ran well in sprints and over a mile but who had to be pulled up when he tried ten furlongs. Then there was the Italian horse Myloveportofino who flopped the only time he went a mile and a half and bounced back to form when cut back to nine furlongs. Finally there's the French filly Grigorieva who was originally entered up in several middle distance races but who was scratched from those races after showing plenty of speed in her first couple of starts and has been campaigned over nine furlongs or less since.

The Japanese horse HEART'S CRY (30) ran third and I'm convinced his chance was compromised by the slow early pace. I spent hours making speed ratings for his Japanese races to try and explain why Heart's Cry ran unplaced a couple of times last year. The speed ratings showed that those two poor efforts came in the only two slow run races Heart's Cry contested. His best form is all in strongly run races.

I look forward to betting Heart's Cry to bounce back to winning form the next time he encounters a truly run race over a mile and a half. I also look forward to betting Electrocutionist when he cuts back to a mile and a quarter. As for Hurricane Run, I salivate at the prospect of opposing him with one of the many smart three year olds that have come out of France and Germany this year.

WYATT EARP IS MORE THAN OK

Historians of the Wild West will tell you that Wyatt Earp was not the hero old Hollywood movies made him out to be. But though the human Wyatt Earp may not have been good the horse WYATT EARP (40) is beginning to look very good indeed. He came close to the course record when taking the 50,000 pound Skybet Dash at York (only Ifraaj and Cape Of Good Hope have ever run the course and distance faster).

Like a lot of good sprinters, Wyatt Earp has reached his peak at five years of age. He's just getting better and better and looks to have a very good chance of landing the Ayr Gold Cup next time if he gets a decent draw.

ANS BACH LOOKING GOOD FOR GOODWOOD

Traffic problems, soft ground and unsuitable distances have probably cost ANS BACH (38) several races. But the he showed that seven furlongs on fast ground was ideal for him when taking a hot three year old handicap in pattern class time at Sandown. I note with interest that he's entered in a valuable race over the same trip at Goodwood and have to give him a real shot of scoring again there.

Runner-up SCRUMMAGE (38) had already proven that seven furlongs on fast ground is what he wants. In fact he would have scored a hat trick in these circumstances if the photo had gone the other way. He too looks to have a good chance of winning a valuable race soon.

CAPE SECRET A SOLID ST LEGER CANDIDATE

CAPE SECRET (39) bombed home by eleven lengths when breaking the course record for the extended mile and three quarters at Newmarket. In doing so he stretched his unbeaten run at longer trips to three.

This was the fastest run by a three year old we've seen so far at distances beyond a mile and a half. It makes Cape Secret look a solid St Leger candidate.

I concede that it has been many years since a St Leger winner ran beyond a mile and a half before taking the final classic and that scores of proven stayers like Cape Secret have failed at Doncaster. But the Leger is to be run at York this year over a shorter distance than normal and York suits front runners like Cape Secret admirably. So I wouldn't discount his chances of winning the big race, especially seeing that he'll be getting his prep race for the Leger over the course and distance in the Melrose Stakes. Cape Secret will be tough to beat in that contest and will surely be supplemented for the Leger if he wins it.

DUNELIGHT IS A SMART MILER

A lot of people are going to be betting that it was a big draw bias that enabled DUNELIGHT (38) to win by such a big margin at Ascot. That's possible, but in my experience it's rare for a selective watering policy to make a truly huge difference to a result. I'm inclined to believe that Dunelight is simply very good at a mile and will be able to win another good race before the season is over.

ROAD TO LOVE HARD TO PEG BACK IN A SMALL FIELD

ROAD TO LOVE (37) is an entertaining horse to watch. He always tears off into the lead and is very hard to pull back as long as he's racing in a relatively small field as he was when scoring impressively at Ascot. For most horses of this type the cut-off point is 11 runners, and this seems to be the case with Road To Love. When there are more than 11 runners he gets pressed for the lead too hard and folds up. But in fields of 11 or less he has now won three of the four times he's run beyond sprint trips, with the only horse to beat him being the smart Formal Decree.

The great thing about a horse like Road To Love is that he's what you might call consistently inconsistent. He runs clunkers as often as he runs races like the one he did at Ascot. But it should be pretty easy to predict which way he'll run. Just look at the field size.

DESERT SEA CAN WIN AGAIN

DESERT SEA (36) ran a very good time for a class 5 handicap when scoring over two miles on Lingfield's Polytrack. The three year old has clearly improved since stepping up to longer trips and ought to have no problems winning again in better company.

MIDNIGHT GOLD BETTER THAN A SUMMER JUMPER

MIDNIGHT GOLD (36) broke the course record when winning a novice chase at Bangor despite idling in front. He's clearly been improved markedly by the switch to fences and should be able to win a few more times in the near future.

Runner-up ARM AND A LEG (36) is now eleven and has been running over hurdles for years. But he too was clearly improved by the switch to the bigger jumps. He's a useful sort to be running in novice chases and looks sure to win soon.

TAM LIN IS TOP CLASS

Okay he's a big brute of a horse that's difficult to ride, but there is no doubting the talent of TAM LIN (41) who won a red hot renewal of the Steventon Stakes at Newbury in sensationally fast time.

Tam Lin ranks as one of the best three year olds in Europe on this run according to my speed ratings. But I rather suspect he needs a very long homestraight such as Newbury's in order to get going in time. His three wins have all been on tracks with homestraights longer than half a mile. His sole loss came at Ascot, where the homestraight is only two and a half furlongs.

The race I'd like to see Tam Lin go for is the Great Voltigeur. After that, if he were mine, I'd be shooting for the very valuable Canadian International, where the four and a half furlong homestraight would suit him down to the ground.

Runner-up WINDSOR KNOT (41) looked like developing into a Group 1 horse after taking the Solario Stakes as a juvenile. Unfortunately training troubles intervened and he managed just one run as a three year old. This run shows that he's as good as ever so I do hope Godolphin allow him to take his chance in the Juddmonte International. He'd have a decent shot in that race if my ratings are any guide.

Third-placed KHYBER KIM (40) earned a Group 2 speed rating from me for the second time in a row. He did so despite being off the course for nine months. With this run under his belt he'll surely be aimed at a decent Group prize. The only horses to have finished in front of him are Echoes Of Light, Tam Lin and Windsor Knot, and I rate all of them to be Group 1 prospects.

DON'T UNDER-ESTIMATE REUNITE

REUNITE (39) broke the course record to win a very nice Listed race for fillies at Yarmouth. She is one of the best three year old fillies according to my ratings, so I'd be wary of opposing her in her next few starts – even if she takes up her Group 1 engagements in the Nassau Stakes or the Yorkshire Oaks. Reunite's only loss in four outings to date came when she was denied a clear run yet still finished a very close fifth in the Ribblesdale Stakes.

I rate Reunite the fastest European three year old in the Godolphin camp (she's some way behind Discreet Cat but that colt is to be campaigned in America). This is kind of interesting seeing that Coolmore's best three year old on my ratings, Alexandrova, is also a filly. I doubt that this makes either stable particularly happy. But that's the situation in this rather odd season of 2006 where most of the best three year old colts seem to reside outside of Britain and Ireland if my ratings are any guide.

Runner-up LOCAL SPIRIT (37) was somewhat unlucky to bump into another high class three year old filly and run second again after occupying the same position behind Allegretto last time. She's a useful filly and ought to win in pattern company before the season is out. Her problem has basically been that most of the better three year old fillies have appeared a good deal later than usual and haven't yet worked their way out of Listed and Group 3 races. They will soon though, which will leave the way clear for Local Spirit to start winning at this sort of level.

MR WOLF IS GROUP CLASS – AT PONTEFRACT

MR WOLF (38) won a strongly contested class sprint handicap at Pontefract in Group class time. The trouble is he only ever seems to run this fast at Pontefract. He's won four of his five starts at the Yorkshire course but has taken 37 starts to win as many races elsewhere. The very stiff nature of the track seems to suit him (Pontefract has the slowest five and six furlong course records of all British tracks).

OTRANTO IS WORTH FOLLOWING

OTRANTO (36) managed just one win from a whole bunch of starts in minor races on dirt in Dubai. But he has improved markedly for the switch to grass and Mark Johnston. He was unlucky to lose his first UK try on firm turf and won his next in seriously good time for a class 5 handicap at Ayr.

I'd bet on Otranto needing fast ground till he proves otherwise, because that's what his form and pedigree suggest. But other than that I see no barriers to him winning several more ordinary handicaps like this as he is much better than a class 5 horse.

ORPEN QUEST CAN WIN AGAIN

ORPEN QUEST (36) won in remarkably fast time for the grade when taking a class 6 handicap at Wolverhampton. He apparently dislikes being crowded – a trait he shares with a lot of thoroughbreds. For most horses of this point the cut-off point where the crowding becomes too much is twelve runners, and this seems to be the case with Orpen Quest. He's reached the first three all five times he's run in fields of eleven or less, winning two of his last three. But he's never won and placed just once in bigger fields from ten attempts.

Orpen Quest, like most Polytrack winners, appears equally effective on grass. But with a safety limit of just 12 runners, Wolverhampton does look like the most logical venue for him to follow up this win. At other tracks he's likely to face a field that's too big for him.

BUACHAILL DONA IS A SMART YOUNG SPRINTER

How good is BUACHAILL DONA (37)? He would have won all three of his starts but for going under by a neck on his debut. His latest win came when he scored in very fast time at Catterick. In fact he should be credited with breaking the track record since the old record was hand-timed and therefore about half a second slower than reported.

Dandy Nicholls generally acquires smart older horses from other stables and turns them into very good sprinters. This time around he's got himself a young sprinter of his own right from the start. He should be able to place him to win something decent.

ABBY ROAD IS USEFUL

ABBY ROAD (35) won a Ripon maiden juvenile sprint by five lengths in very decent time. She's definitely pattern class on my ratings and is bred to get a bit further. I'd be interested in her chances in a Listed or Group 3 contest next time.

BLUEBOK CAN WIN AGAIN

BLUEBOK (37) is a very consistent horse in the right circumstances. But for a couple of narrow losses he'd have now won eight of the nine times he's raced on a straight course or around a dog leg, not a full turn, at less than six furlongs when the official going description has had the word 'firm' in it. His latest success came in Listed class time at Yarmouth. Given his conditions I think he can win again.

YES SIR, HE'S FAST

YES SIR (39) won for the sixth time in a row when taking the valuable totesport.com Summer Plate at Market Rasen. It's worth remembering though that he won five races last Spring and Summer before drawing a blank in a whole string of starts in the jumps season proper.

It could be that Yes Sir is simply best on tight tracks, seeing that he's won the last eight times he's completed on tracks 11 furlongs or less in circumference. It may also be that he's simply improved massively over fences and will keep on winning even when we get to the Autumn and Winter. Personally I suspect he's at his best in the warmer months now. In any event he's obviously got a great chance of pulling off a big race double in the big chase coming up at Newton Abbot in August.

ECHO OF LIGHT RUNS A GROUP 1 TIME AGAIN

I gave ECHO OF LIGHT (42) a big write up here last Autumn after he'd dotted up in a hot Doncaster handicap in what I rated Group 1 class time. Now he's gone and replicated the feat to take the Group 3 Ladbrokes Summer Mile.

It's unusual for a horse to perform to the highest level at both eight and ten furlongs as well as on grass and the AW. So it looks like Echo Of Light is very good indeed. With his terrific pace it must be tempting for Godolphin to use him as a pacemaker as they did in the Champion Stakes last year. But he's actually a Group 1 horse and deserves better than that. I'd like to see him take up one of his Group 1 entries in the Sussex Stakes or Juddmonte International. He's good enough to have a real chance in either of those races, particularly the Sussex.

An interesting aspect of this win is that it was the fourth Group success this year for Godolphin on dirt or AW tracks. They've yet to win a Group race on turf in 2006. One is left to speculate on whether their long term focus on buying or breeding a horse to win the Kentucky Derby is having an unexpected side effect on their operation.

STRATEGIC PRINCE IS SPECIAL

Hoh Mike (29) deserved to be favourite for the July Stakes on the basis of what they’d done. But it looked like he failed to stay the sixth furlong. He moved well till then but tired as the winner STRATEGIC PRINCE (37) began to unwind a devastating burst of speed to sprint clear in the closing stages.

This was a seriously good effort by Strategic Prince who clearly improved for the step up to six furlongs, just as his pedigree suggested. Logically he ought to improve again over seven furlongs, and that's certainly the way it looked from the way he was powering away in the closing stages. He won full of running and probably earned a very good speed rating for seven furlongs if only someone had clocked him as he was pulling up in the furlong past the post.

The speed rating I awarded Strategic Prince takes him just into Group 1 territory for a two year old at this point of the season. He's obviously an exciting prospect. I'm confident he'll stay seven furlongs but not sure yet that he'll get a mile. Horses with necks as short as his tend to be sprinters.

GRAIN OF TRUTH IS A GROUP CLASS FILLY

I need to stop complaining about the lack of fast three year old fillies as they are now popping up all over the place – even in ordinary AW handicaps like the one at Lingfield the other day. This was won by the very well bred GRAIN OF TRUTH (38) in very good time indeed.

Grain Of Truth had previously been entered in Group races but disappointed a couple of times after breaking her maiden. I don't know why that was. The best I can come up with is perhaps she prefers tight tracks like this one. In any event she is now very well handicapped. But I imagine the main priority will be to earn her some black type as this would make her very valuable for stud purposes. My ratings indicate this should be no problem at all.

FAIRMILE IS GROUP 2 CLASS

Statistically FAIRMILE (40) was a good thing to take the John Smith's Cup. He was the only runner to fit the profile of past winners. Namely that the previous 18 winners all had a good draw and 12 of them had run a dozen times or less. What's a good draw? Well it would seem that one of the lowest nine or highest four draws is required. The 92 horses drawn in between these numbers have all lost. It would appear that they suffer from traffic problems.

It takes a good Group horse to win the John Smith's Cup, and there's no doubt Fairmile is exactly that. I can't yet figure out any obvious pattern to his form, but he's fast enough to be worth following anyway.

Runner-up BRAVO MAESTRO (39) was denied a clear run for the second time in a row. It could well be that he's best in smaller fields where he can avoid traffic more easily. After all he's won three of the last four times he's run beyond a mile in fields of 13 or less and lost all ten times he's contested races with more runners.

FINALMENTE IS CUP CLASS

FINALMENTE (39) won a valuable two mile handicap on Lingfield's Polytrack in Group class time. This lightly raced horse is capable of winning a Cup race on my ratings. He'll get plenty of weight in the Cesarewitch but looks one of the key players.

Runner-up ELEUSIVE DREAM (38) is a frustrating horse to follow as he so often goes close but hasn't won in quite a while now. It may be that he's best in smaller fields. After all he's now won five of the six times he's gone 12 furlongs or more in races with 11 runners or less but has lost all eleven times he's run in bigger fields.

JOSIE MARCUS CAN EARN BLACK TYPE

JOSIE MARCUS (36) was most impressive when taking a seven furlong maiden at the big York meeting. Always moving well, she surged clear in the last furlong, looking like she could go both faster and longer. I'd be confident of her winning an ordinary handicap over a mile or seven furlongs next time and give her a very good chance of earning some black type after that.

THESE ARE SMART YOUNG SPRINTERS

The totesport.com Stakes was worth as much as most Group 2 contests, and it produced a Group 2 time, with four three year olds flashing past the post almost in a line. DARK MISSILE (40), MUTAMARRES (40), PRINCE TAMINO (40) and RIPPLES MAID (40) all ran seriously fast and should be contesting Group races in time. Meanwhile there are big sprint handicaps to be won with them as they are all a tad faster than the older sprinters they'll be meeting in such contests.

At this point it's impossible to say what circumstances suit these four horses best. They're too lightly raced for that. All I can say is that they are exceptionally fast and should prove profitable to follow in their next few outings.

SANDER CAMILLO DIDN'T RUN THAT FAST

Sander Camillo (32) was tremendously impressive in the Cherry Hinton. She simply flowed over the ground and surged away from her rivals in the closing stages. But the clock says she needs to improve a good deal on this effort to win Group 1 races. The three year olds ran a whole lot faster for the first four furlongs in the previous race over the same trip and they ran the last furlong just as quickly as she did to clock a final time that was 1.24 seconds better – a huge amount for six furlongs.

If Sander Camillo was that good she should have finished a good deal more quickly than the three year olds off such a modest early pace. Maybe she'll prove me wrong, but at this stage I cannot add to the general enthusiasm about her. My ratings say she's one to oppose.

MATSUNOSUKE IS USEFUL ON FIRM GROUND

I don't like touting British sprinters as there are so many fast ones it's near impossible to make money following them due to the strength of competition. But MATSOUNAKE (38) ran so fast in such a low class race that I have to make note of him. He won a class 4 handicap at Newmarket in Group 3 time and is clearly a very decent horse. His trainer says that firm ground is the key to him, and that appears to be right. He has now won three of the four times he's run five furlongs when the official going description had the word 'firm' in it. He should be easy to place to win again soon.

LES ARCS AGAIN

I'm not a great fan of sprints as the draw and luck in running play such a large part in determining the results. Nonetheless I have to mention the July Cup win of LES ARCS (43). Cleary this is a very useful sprinter. Five furlongs up the straight appears to be a bit sharp for him judged on his two recent unplaced efforts. Toss out those runs and he'd have won the last eight times he's run in sprints but for a single short head defeat.

The plan is apparently to take Les Arcs to Japan for the 300,000 pound Centaur Stakes at Chukyo in September followed by the 450,000 pound Sprinters Stakes at Nakayama the following month. He'll almost certainly have to face the fearsome Australian sprinters in those races. But he showed at Ascot and again here that he can cope with them.

IFFRAAJ (43) equalled his best ever rating to finish a close second. The interesting thing about him is that he stays longer. So the half furlong longer Prix Maurice de Gheest looks a smart move. That race is usually the weakest Group 1 of the whole season for older horses and Iffraaj would be a good thing to take most runnings.

AMADEUS WOLF (42) ran a big race for a three year old to take fourth. In doing so he equalled the top rating I've given a three year old so far this season. Three year olds tend to improve a point or two on my ratings from now to the end of the season, so Amadeus Wolf must now have every chance of taking a big Group 1 sprint.

ADANTINO CAN WIN AGAIN

A flat racer has no business improving at seven years of age. But try telling that to ADANTINO (39). The old boy won in seriously fast time at Lingfield and is now clearly a very decent sprinter. He may well be best on straight tracks or on ones that involve no more than a dog leg. I say this because he's won the last three times he's run on such courses and lost the last eleven times he's run around a full turn.

IL PENSEROSO HAS IMPROVED

You don't see many fast times from Summer jumpers. But IL PENEROSO (36) clocked one when beating a decent rival in Schinken Otto to score at Perth in a race where the pair pulled clear.

Il Penseroso has clearly improved since switching stables and looks set to win again. Then again it could simply be that his connections have discovered the key to him. This would appear to be a tight, right-handed track. He's now won all three chases he's contested on right-handed tracks that are ten furlongs around or less.

DAVID JUNIOR STILL VULNERABLE OFF A SLOW PACE

I felt very smug as I watched the early stages of the Eclipse Stakes. I'd spent many hours analysing the form and had come to the conclusion that the early pace would be slow which would not suit the favourite DAVID JUNIOR (37). I was happy to chuck out Ouija Board because I reckoned she wouldn't like the long uphill run-in and figured the race just had to be between Notnowcato and Blue Monday, with the latter looking the most likely winner.

Sure enough the early pace was slow and NOTNOWCATO (36) and BLUE MONDAY (36) ran big races. But I had failed to take into account the steep uphill finish which pulled David Junior into the race despite the slow early gallop – just as it did when he blasted home by five lengths in a slow run Listed race over the same course and distance a year before.

My speed ratings indicate that David Junior is the fastest horse on the planet at a mile and a quarter. But he still looks vulnerable off a slow early gallop. So I'd analyse the likely pace of every race he contests from now on as none of them are going to be run on a track with a steep uphill finish like Sandown's. And I wouldn't assume the pace will be fast if he has Royal Alchemist in to make the running for him. Jockeys don't chase after pacemakers they know are outclassed. They certainly didn't do so in the Eclipse.

A lot of observers seem to think that OUIJA BOARD (34) was unlucky. Yes it's true she was boxed in. But Blue Monday was caught in an even worse pocket and he had the speed to extricate himself. Ouija Board didn't. I reckon her run had come to an end.

I have a theory about Ouija Board being best on tracks with short run-ins and this performance seemed to bear it out.

Ouija Board has won against three year old fillies on tracks with long homestraights. But take a look at what happens when you split her ten runs against older horses in Group 1 company into races on tracks with homestraights of two and a half furlongs or less and those with longer homestraights*;

Two and a half furlongs or less

Third by half a length

Won

Second by a length and a quarter

Won

Third by a neck

Won

Longer homestraights

Seventh by twenty nine and a half lengths

Fifth by two and a quarter lengths

Fourth by nine lengths

Second by one and three quarter lengths

Fifth by three and three quarter lengths

*The homestraight at Tokyo is 530 metres, Nad Al Sheba 600 metres and Sha Tin 430 metres (200 metres equals a furlong)

As you can see all of Ouija Board's five G1 runs against older horses on tracks with homestraights longer than two and a half furlongs were worse than all of her five runs on tracks with shorter homestraights. She's got one big burst of speed and it's probably best used up a short homestraight.

Blue Monday got into far more traffic problems than Ouija Board and finished closer. He would undoubtedly have finished a close second if he'd had a clear run.

Blue Monday has done some amazing things and has long looked like a Group 1 horse to me.

First of all Blue he won the Cambridgeshire by two and a half lengths off an official handicap mark of 99. The only Cambridgeshire winner to come close to this feat was Halling who won the big race by the same margin but off a six pound lower mark. Haling went on to win five Group 1's.

Second, Blue Monday earned a decent Group class speed rating from me despite a slow early pace when winning a red hot Listed race at Goodwood. The runner up Mountain High had earned a Group 1 speed rating from me when taking his previous start and ran a huge race to lose the Hardwicke Stakes narrowly in a bunch finish with a stack of Group 1 horses next time. The third horse Vol De Nuit had placed three times in Group 1 company previously and went on to do so again next time out.

Third, in another slow run race next time out, Blue Monday looked to be in an impossible position when completely boxed in with less than a furlong to run. But he managed to extricate himself and get up from another seriously strong field.

It seems to me that Blue Monday is a very smart horse indeed, and that he is at his very best in tactical races like the Eclipse. Previously he'd won every time he'd run in a slow run race according to my speed ratings.

Blue Monday seems best in races where there's less traffic too - either on straight courses or in fields of eleven or less. Before the Eclipse he'd won five times out of six in such races, with his sole loss being by a short head on his seasonal debut when he looked backward in his coat according to Raceform. For the same reason he's got a great record on yielding or softer ground too. My research shows that the softer the ground the less traffic there is because the runners get spread out more and have less chance of impeding each other.

Blue Monday is unlikely to ever run a really fast time, but he's a proper Group 1 horse in tactically run races and deserves a Group 1 win. The places he's most likely to get it are France and America where the races are run to suit horses like him.

ALLEGRETTO LOOKS GOOD FOR THE PARK HILL

The good three year old fillies are finally starting to emerge and we saw another when ALLEGRETTO (38) won the Lancashire Oaks in very good time. It was very noticeable that she took a long time to get going despite the strong early gallop set by Innocent Air. In the end though she was striding out strongly and running away from her rivals, looking like she could go round again.

I can see Allegretto getting done for a turn of foot over a mile and a half, but over the Leger trip I doubt that there's many fillies who could beat her. This being so I hope her connections decide to go for the Park Hill Stakes with her as reports suggest.

THESE ARE SMART FILLIES

There haven't been many fast times to report from three year old fillies this season. But we got four from a single race when STAR CLUSTER (37), SILVER TOUCH (37), EXPENSIVE (37) and LA MOTTIE produced a bunch finish in a red hot Listed contest over a mile at Sandown.

Star Cluster and Silver Touch were the most visually impressive as they both moved through impressively, full of run to fight out the finish. Silver Touch in particular caught my eye, surging from last place to quickly reach the head of affairs even though the whole field was sprinting at that point. Expensive just bobbed up and down in the same spot through the last furlong but La Mottie was flying at the finish after meeting traffic.

I suspect we're going to see a few Group races go to these four fillies sometime this season, and I'd be on Silver Touch doing the best of them

LUCKY LARK LOOKING INTERESTING FOR GLORIOUS GOODWOOD

Mark Johnston has a terrific record at the Glorious Goodwood. And one horse of his I'd be looking for at the big meeting is LUCKY LARK (37) who posted a terrific time to win by seven lengths at Brighton. Horses that win at Brighton and Epsom tend to do well at the similarly contoured Goodwood.

I can't explain why Lucky Lark ran below this form a few days later at Beverley. Perhaps the race came too soon. Maybe he prefers tighter courses. But there's no doubt he ran a terrific time at Goodwood, one that puts him in with a real shot of taking a big handicap for Johnston.

ROAD TO LOVE ANOTHER SMART JOHNSTON 3YO

Mark Johnston has an unusually large number of smart middle-distance three year old handicappers this year. He produced another one when ROAD TO LOVE (37) won a ten furlong handicap at Sandown in slightly faster time than the Eclipse (which was admittedly slow run).

I can't yet say why Road To Love has run below form a few times. It could be that he is best on tracks with steep uphill finishes like this one. But wherever he runs next I'd think long and hard before opposing him.

BANKNOTE IS GROUP CLASS

BANKNOTE (39) looked impressive when beating a bunch of decent handicappers over a mile at Haydock in Group class time. His connections are apparently now going to try and win a Listed or Group race with him, and they should be able to do so if the clock is any guide – as long as they wait a while.

You could argue that you can explain Banknote's losses by saying that he's best around a turn, dislikes soft ground and doesn't stay much more than a mile. But I'm a great believable in the principle of Occam's Razor when analysing form – i.e. the simplest explanation is most likely to be correct. And it's hard to get away from the fact that all of Banknote's five wins to date have come off a break of five weeks or more.

I'd happily bet Banknote to win a Group 3 off this run – if he's rested for five weeks or more.

HINTERLAND HAS A REAL SHOT IN THE TOTESPORT INTERNATIONAL

HINTERLAND (39) earned a good Group class speed rating from me for the second time this season when winning the valuable totesccop6 handicap at Sandown. This big muscular colt was always going best and gave the impression he might actually be able to run faster. He's very lightly raced and could easily prove Group 2 or even Group 1 class. Certainly he must have a great chance of scoring a big race double next time in the Totesport International handicap at Goodwood.

CAPE SECRET AND SHORE THING SHOULD BE FOLLOWED

CAPE SECRET (37) and SHORE THING (37) pulled a long way clear of their pursuers in a low grade handicap run in pattern class time at Haydock. Clearly these two three year olds have both improved markedly for the step up to a mile and three quarters. Equally clearly they are both a long way ahead of the handicapper. Both should win again soon.

RIGHT TED BETTER THAN CLAIMING CLASS

I love it when a horse wins a selling or claiming race in as fast a time as RIGHT TED (35) managed at Windsor. Punters tend to under-rate selling and claiming form and allow such horses to start at much bigger odds than they should when they go back up to handicap company.

Not surprisingly Right Ted was claimed. I'd look for her new connections to be adding to this win soon in better company.

BILLICH CAN WIN AGAIN

BILLICH (36) has improved every time he's been stepped up in distance according to my speed ratings. He did so again when breaking his maiden in a pretty warm looking contest at Yarmouth. He won't be that well handicapped off this run judged by the official ratings of those that chased him home. But he ought to be able to take a class 3 or 4 handicap without much trouble.

BALL O MALT HAS REAL CHANCE IN GALWAY PLATE

BALL O MALT (39) won the valuable Galway Plate Trial at Perth in seriously fast time and must now have a real chance in the big race itself. He's lost all of his ten hurdles starts but is a pretty decent chaser on fast ground on a tight track. He's won three of his five starts in these circumstances. Ball O Malt ran seventh in the Galway Plate last year and looks likely to go closer this time.

BOHEMIAN SPIRIT (38) ran a big race to finish second. He's earned good speed ratings from me before and looks sure to win a big chase sometime in the next few months when he gets the fast ground he needs. I like the fact that he consented to settle behind the leaders this time instead of tearing off into the lead. This improvement in behaviour may well presage an improvement in form.

INDIAN INK LEAVES INDELIBLE IMPRESSION

If my speed ratings are anything to go by Richard Hannon has a 1000 Guineas candidate in INDIAN INK (37). The filly quickened up impressively to win a six furlong maiden at Newbury in what is Group 1 class time for a horse of her age and sex. She'd been backward on her debut according to Raceform, a fact confirmed by Hannon who said she simply 'blew up' through lack of fitness that day.

Indian Ink has a fair bit of stamina on the dam's side of her pedigree, so there must be a very good chance she'll get a mile. She is much the best two year old filly we've seen so far this season and looks a likely Group winner in the near future.

Runner-up NAAYLA (34) pulled three lengths clear of the rest and I'd be looking for her to frank this form by winning next time out.

CRESTA GOLD CAN WIN IN PATTERN COMPANY

A recurring theme this season has been the remarkably low number of fast times recorded by three year old fillies, particularly at middle distances. I doubt that this will continue throughout the season, and it's encouraging to note that we've seen a decent times from the classic generation of fillies very recently. One of them was posted by CRESTA GOLD (37) who won the valuable Cumberland Plate at Carlisle.

I hate it when a track runs a race over a new distance because I have to indulge in mathematical gymnastics to figure out a decent ballpark standard time till more information comes in. But I'm satisfied I came close enough with the new distance of the Carlisle Bell to justify awarding Cresta Gold one of the biggest speed ratings I've given a three year old filly at a middle distance all season.

Cresta Gold was 'unbalanced throughout' on her seasonal debut at Chester. But she's won both her starts on more galloping tracks since. Last time out she beat subsequent Queen's Vase third Ermine Sea into second, and this run suggests she just as good as that line of form implies. I see her winning in at least Listed company before the season is out.

PICTAVIA AS GOOD AS EVER

PICTAVIA (38) ran very well against a whole stack of Group 1 fillies last year. So it's no big surprise she was able to win a Listed race at Newcastle on her first start for Godolphin. The time was better than the norm for the class though, and she beat a highly progressive filly in REEM THREE (37).

Last year Pictavia earned a speed rating of 39 from me, which is Group 1 territory for a three year old filly. It looks like she's at least as good this year, so I would give her a real shot of winning a Group 1 like the Prix L'Opera. Before then I'd be wary of opposing her at what now seems to be her specialist trip of ten furlongs

Reem Three is getting interesting and should have no trouble taking a similar race.

FAYR JAG AS GOOD AS EVER

FAYR JAG (42) broke Newcastle's six furlong course record when winning the group 3 Chipchase Stakes. It's easy to attribute his fast time and that of the big sprint handicap on the same card to the tailwind. But my ratings are based on past ratings earned by all the runners that finished close up – and these suggest strongly that this Group 1 winner is as good as ever.

Fayr Jag is at his best over six furlongs on a track with an uphill finish when the official going has the word 'firm' in it. He's now won six of his last eight completed starts in these circumstances. If, as seems likely, he gets his ground in the July Cup, I see him running a big race.

Runner-up BECKERMET (41) is a smart horse in a small field. And, like a lot of horses of this type, the cut-off point for him seems to be twelve runners. All his five wins have come in fields of 11 or less but he's lost every one of the thirteen times he's tried races with more runners.

INDIAN TRAIL LOOKING GOOD FOR THE STEWARDS' CUP

INDIAN TRAIL (41) earned a rave review from me when lowering Newmarket's six furlong track record last season. He would have broken Newcastle's six furlong record last week had Fayr Jag not done so already in the previous race.

Clearly Indian Trail is at his best over six furlongs on fast ground. He's now won four of the five times he's run in such circumstances, with his sole loss coming when he ran close despite meeting al sorts of trouble in the Wokingham.

No doubt Indian Trail will now be aimed for the Stewards' Cup and he must have every chance there seeing that he's won on the course already – assuming he gets his ground and a decent draw.

DONT UNDER-ESTIMATE LOCH VERDI

LOCH VERDI (37) should be credited with breaking the five furlong track record in her most recent start at Hamilton, as electrically recorded times like her's are about half a second slower than hand-timed ones such as the old course record. She certainly ran seriously fast for a three year old filly and is clearly very good over five furlongs. In fact you could easily argue that she should now have won all four races she's contested over the trip. After all in one of her losses she only went under by a head after encountering a lot of traffic. And in the other she ran second after being asked to race for the second time in only four days.

Loch Verdi is a daughter of the amazingly fast Lochsong and looks set to become yet another member of her family to earn black type over sprint distances.

ALONG THE NILE SMART AT A MILE

ALONG THE NILE (37) won a class 4 handicap in Listed class time at Newcastle and looks to be seriously well handicapped despite the fact that he's won so many times in his recent starts. In fact he's now won four of the last five times he's run a mile following a run within the last month. There are better races to be won with this horse.

LIBRETTIST COULD BE VERY SMART INDEED

LIBRETTIST (38) lowered the course record when taking a warm renewal of the Listed Midsummer Stakes at Windsor. His only loss in five lifetime starts came in the Dewhurst Stakes, where he may well have disliked the soft ground but still ran close. How good he is only time will tell, but any horse that can run a Group 3 class time while winning easily has to be a great prospect.

Runner-up PRINCE OF LIGHT (37) was a smart two year old and showed he retains his form with a good run here. He's had problems with his feet apparently and returned sore after losing a shoe. If his feet hold together he's likely to win a Group race – quite possibly on softer ground.

IMPERIAL ECHO IS GROUP CLASS

IMPERIAL ECHO (39) has improved markedly since being stepped up from short sprint trips and clocked a Group class time to win a good seven furlong handicap at Newcastle. It would seem he's best on a galloping course as he's lost several times around tight ones. He may well get a mile and looks capable of winning more good races in the near future.

RASLAN IS A DECENT STAYER

You don't see many three year olds run as fast as RASLAN (36) over two miles at Warwick. Clearly he's a decent young stayer who looks set to win better races than this.