UK JULY 2007

COULD DYLAN THOMAS FOLLOW UP IN THE ARC?

DYLAN THOMAS (43) equalled the speed rating I awarded him in the Prix Ganay when taking the King George in seriously fast time. This means he has on two occasions run faster at a middle distance than any other horse has managed in Europe all season.

Normally there are three or four horses in training at any one time that can run as fast as Dylan Thomas over 10-12 furlongs. But, with the three year olds looking a weak bunch, and the fastest older horses outside of Dylan Thomas probable non-stayers we actually have the unusual situation of a single dominant horse, at least on my speed ratings.

The question this raises most strongly for me is 'could Dylan Thomas pull off the King George-Arc double?'

Out of curiosity I looked up the record of horses that have attempted to win Europe's top two weight for age races and set out my findings below.

1956 Ribot WON*

1958 Ballymoss WON*

1961 Right Royal second

1962 Match fifth*

1969 Park Top second*

1970 Nijinsky second

1971 Mill Reef WON

1973 Dahlia seventh

1976 Pawneese seventh

1979 Troy third

1980 Ela-Mana-Mou third*

1983 Time Charter fourth*

1986 Dancing Brave WON

1987 Reference Point eighth

1988 Mtoto second*

1990 Belmez fifth

1991 Generous eighth

1992 St Jovite fourth

1993 Opera House third*

1994 King's Theatre tenth

1995 Lammtarra WON

1996 Pentire tenth

1997 Swain seventh*

1999 Daylami ninth*

2000 Montjeu fourth*

2006 Hurricane Run third*

* four year old and up

As you can see, the ten horses older than three to attempt the double since Ballymoss in 1958 all lost. This doesn't look good for Dylan Thomas. But none of those older horses were dominant in the way that Ribot and Ballymoss were.

Okay Dylan Thomas is no Ribot or Ballymoss either. But he is clearly the best 12 furlong horse in training. So I reckon he has a real chance of adding France's premier race to his haul this season. The big proviso of course is the ground.

Dylan Thomas was amazingly lucky that during a period of freakishly wet weather Ascot dried out to what I rated good ground last Saturday. His record shows that he simply must have it that way. He lost to Notnowcato when he last ran on what race times say was yielding going. And the softer the ground has been the worse he has run.

Over a mile and a quarter Dylan Thomas is always going to be vulnerable off a slow pace. But at a mile and a half on good or faster going he's awfully hard to peg back. Two years out of three it's good or faster going at Longchamp on Arc day. So chances are he'll get his ground. But I don't see much point taking the relatively short odds about him ante-post. More likely than not he'll be steered towards one or more mile and a quarter targets before the Arc and there must be a very good chance he won't get the going or the pace he needs to win at the shorter trip. That means he may well start at around the odds he is now.

Runner-up YOUMZAIN (40) will no doubt be going for the Arc. I believe he can run a bit faster but I don't fancy his chances in the big field the race is likely to attract this year.

On his previous start and also last year at Royal Ascot last year Youmzain slipped up on the turn. And it looks like the incidents unneverved him to the point that he wouldn't extend himself thereafter because he ran well below form.

Last time it was a horse cutting across Youmzain that caused the trouble. At Royal Ascot he took a false stride when getting unbalanced on crown of the bend.

I suspect that Youmzain just doesn't like being in tight quarters with other horses and isn't as well balanced as he should be. This may explain why he dropped himself so far back when an unlucky, fast-finishing third in the Dubai Sheema Classic in a fourteen runner field.

If you toss out the two races where he stumbled and the Dubai Sheema Classic Youmzain's form at a mile and a half plus shows four wins from six tries and second place finishes to Rail Link and Dylan Thomas in his two losses.

If the going did turn up soft in the Arc I'd have a rethink about Youmzain. This is because some research I carried out last year into the effects of soft ground shows that it amplifies the lengths between the runners and therefore reduces the possibility of a horse encountering traffic problems.

In this regard it's surely significant that the only time that Youmzain has won in anything but a single figure field since breaking his maiden was also the only time he's enountered yi8elding or softer ground. This was at York where he beat subsequent Breeders' Cup Turf winner Red Rocks in the Great Voltigeur.

Third placed MARAAHEL (38) has now lost all twelve Group 1's that he's contested but won the last five times he's run in lower grade. If he's ever going to score at the top level it will surely be over ten furlongs. The five biggest speed ratings I've ever awarded him have all been over the shorter trip while he's never run better than a Group 3 time over a mile and a half.

LAVEROCK (38) ran a fair bit below his best in fourth. Previously he'd always peaked on his second run following a lay-off which this was. But I rather suspect that now he's with Godolphin he's being trained to hit top form a little later. I wouldn't write him off. He beat Manduro fair and square last year and is a serious horse when right. I note with interest that three days before the King George Godolphin paid a late nomination fee to put Laverock into the Arlington Million. I like his chances in that race.

Scorpion (36) made the running but faded to finish unplaced, just as eleven of the last twelve leger winners that ran in this race did. It's now been 48 years since a Leger winner (Alcide) has gone on to win the King George. I think Scorpion will be hard pressed to win again as my speed ratings indicate he's just not as fast as he was as a three year old.

The German raider PRINCE FLORI (30) is not very big and looked unconfortable when tightened up on the rail. He's a nippy little thing and I suspect is best around tight turns in a small field. He's won four times out of four in these circumstances. This being so I reckon he'd be quite some force in North America where all but two of the tracks are tight. He'd do best of all in California where the fields are invariably very small.

VISIT SHOULD BE BET FOR THE 1000 GUINEAS

VISIT (38) surged to the head of my two year old ratings with a seriously good win in the Princess Margaret Stakes. The impressive thing about her win was that it was over six furlongs and she is clearly built and bred to run a mile. The way she ran down the very speedy REEL GIFT (36) to surge clear in the closing stages was most impressive.

Visit is a mature, good-bodied, most attractive horse. She earned the rare distinction for a filly of being described as a 'good sort' by Raceform, a tribute normally only accorded to colts.

The 16-1 about Visit for the 1000 Guineas looks awfully tempting. She ran as fast here as the top juvenile filly does in most years and comes from the top female family on the planet.

Visit will apparently be kept to six furlongs for the Lowther Stakes next time. I have to say that worries me a bit. I suspect that the slow surface helped make the race enough of a stamina test for her to score at Ascot. On firmer ground I'm concerned she might find six furlongs to be on the short side. Nonetheless I'd expect Visit to win at York, even if she only gets up late to win narrowly. Thereafter the Fillies' Mile beckons.

Reel Gift is quick enough to win a normal Princess Margaret Stakes and was unlucky to come up against such a smart rival. She showed serious early speed to go clear early and will surely win a six furlong pattern race before the season is out.

ATLANTIC SPORT AND SKADRAK LOOK SMART

In France they have plenty of races restricted to debutantes at the top tracks, and they're usually contested by future pattern racers. But Ascot's Crocker Bulteel Stakes is unique in Britain, and it's run a bit late in the season to be assured of always attracting a strong field of first timers.

However on the four occasions that the Crocker Bulteel has been contested by seven runners or more it has produced a future pattern winner. Strangely enough it has been the runner-up that has enjoyed the high level success on each occasion. I'm not sure that will be the case this year because the first three ATLANTIC SPORT (37), SKADRAK (37) and AQLAAM (36) all earned big speed ratings from me.

Atlantic Sport is bred to go a mile and has a classy pedigree. He won the race and does look the best prospect. I think he'll prove competitive in races like the Middle park and Dewhurst and it's perfectly possible he'll develop into a Guineas contender.

Runner-up Skadrak on the other hand is far from certain to stay a mile. His dam has produced two winners from her three previous foals in America, one over six furlongs, the other over a mile. But that was when she was mated with sires that tend to imbue their stock with more stamina than Forest Camp, the stallion that produced Skadrak. I suspect he'll do best at sprint trips as a juvenile and won't get the mile at three. Nevertheless he's fast enough to rate as a serious contender for big races right now.

Third placed Aqlaam might well get further than a mile next year. He's by champion sprinter Oasis Dream. But he's the first foal of a dam whose four winning siblings all scored over a mile and a half or more.

STAGE GIFT ALMOST CERTAINLY A GROUP 1 HORSE

STAGE GIFT (40) made it five out of five at ten furlongs when taking a good Group 2 race at York on bottomless ground. He was always moving best and jockey Jamie Spencer clearly felt he had a good deal in hand because he patiently waited for a gap to open in the homestraight. When it did Stage Gift asserted without much fuss despite rolling around (due to the heavy ground according to his trainer).

Stage Gift, like Laverock, was a late nomination for the Arlington Million by Godolphin. He'd be interesting in that race or the Juddmonte International as I think Spencer was right to say he'd have won by a bigger margin on faster ground.

Early in the season it was looking like Godolphin were in trouble. But now, with Ramonti, Laverock, Stage Gift and Echo Of Light, they have four smart horses to attack the remaining big Group 1 races with.

MUTHABARA LOOKS A FILLIES MILE PROSPECT

MUTHABARA (36) earned the biggest speed rating I've given a juvenile filly beyond six furlongs so far this season when winning a Listed race over seven furlongs at Sandown. And it looks highly likely that she can go faster.

Entering the straight I thought Muthabara was in trouble as she was some way behind and looked to be struggling in the yielding going with her fast ground action. But with a furlong and a bit to go she changed her legs and somehow found a way to plough through the glop more efficiently and picked up very strongly. She surged towards the runner up LADY DEAUVILLE (35) and quickly blew by her towards the finish. If the race had been half a furlong further she would have been a wide margin winner. Certainly she won with a good deal in hand as she had her ears pricked and was moving strongly at the line.

Muthabara ran a bit green at several points in the race, notably in the closing stages where she drifted off a straight line. Her jockey was careful only to rider her out with hands and heels except for one crack of the whip very late. Clearly he felt very confident she'd pick up her rivals and knew he had a lot of horse beneath him.

My gut feel is that Muthabara is going to prove a Group 1 horse and will improve for faster ground and the step up to a mile. She looks by far the bet candidate we've seen so far for the Fillies' Mile and Marcel Boussac. I'm not yet sure about the Guineas as she gave me the impression she might prove best over a mile and a quarter at three rather than a mile.

Runner-up Lady Deauville has a strange pedigree. She's by Fasliyev who never won beyond six furlongs and usually gets sprinters out of Mercalle who won the two and a half mile Prix du Cadran and tends to produce middle to long distance runners. Watching her race her it looked to me that she's inherited more of her dam's stamina than her sire's speed. So I'm not sure she's going to be effective over seven furlongs and a mile at two except on testing ground like this. Next year I suspect she'll be running in an Oaks trial.

ART MASTER SHOULD WIN A GROUP RACE THIS YEAR

ART MASTER (36) was easing up at the finish when winning a Leicester maiden over seven furlongs. Nonetheless he still clocked a Group class time. He's bred to go a good deal longer and looks a smart middle distance prospect for next season. Meanwhile he should win a Group race this year. The one I have in mind is the Royal Lodge Stakes as he looks sure to improve for the step up to a mile. This is a handsome colt and quite some prospect. The idea that trainer Sylvester Kirk floated of going for nursery handicaps after the race looks way off the mark to me.

The horse that looks interesting for nursery handicaps is the runner-up RUBY DELTA (33) who is clearly much better over seven furlongs than shorter trips. I can see him getting away with a very lenient mark and hosing up over this distance in a nursery.

TEMPELSTERN DOES IT AGAIN

Outside of the huge block entries made by Coolmore and Godolphin there are just 20 horses entered for the St Leger. One of them is the German bred TEMPELSTERN (38) who I wrote up here after he'd broken his maiden in fast time at Yarmouth.

Now Tempelstern has gone and run even faster to win a 1m 6f handicap at Sandown by eight lengths.

Tempelstern set a good pace and had the field cooked shortly after entering the straight. At that point all his rivals were being ridden vigorously while his own jockey, Ted Durcan, was stock still and clearly had a double handful. Durcan rode Tempelstern out in the last furlong and the horse opened up a rather rapidly widening gap on his rivals. At the post he was still full of run and actually looked as though he'd be happy to have gone round the course again.

Tempelstern's stamina is not surprising. His sire scored his biggest win outside Germany in a 1m 6f Group 3. His dam won two class 1 handicaps from three tries at two miles and was fourth in a Listed race in her sole loss at a marathon distance. So clearly Tempelstern is unusually stoutly bred even for a German horse.

Trainer Henry Cecil says that he's keen to keep Tempelstern to his own age group this season. So I imagine he'll be entering him for the Gordon Stakes or the Great Voltigeur en route to taking up his engagement in the St Leger. Personally, if he were mine, I'd be skipping those races and shooting for the 50,000 Euro Auction race that Tempelstern in still in on the 28th of August at Baden-Baden. That race is restricted to horses purchased at the same yearling sale as Tempelstern and looks ripe for the picking by Cecil's colt who would probably start a short-priced favourite.

Proven stayers like Tempelstern have a rotten recent record in the St Leger. They lack the speed to cope with the high class middle-distance runners that win the race nowadays. In fact the 59 St Leger runners that previously won at 1m 5f or more in the last 16 runnings have all lost. No doubt Tempelstern will add to their losses. But he looks a very decent prospect for Cup races next year.

LES FAZZANI SHOULD GO FOR A LISTED RACE NOW

I gave LES FAZZANI (37) a big write up here after she'd won in fast time at Kempton. But I totally misread her, suggesting she'd be better on fast ground. Clearly her connections feel she wants it soft. And she proved them right by streaking home in the mud at York last week.

Les Fazzani has now won all three times she's run on a surface that's kind to a horse's legs - Polytrack or soft turf. She's run Listed class times twice in a row and looks a serious horse. Any time she gets her surface she'll be very hard to beat. In fact I'd bet her to win pretty much anything right now. I think she really should go for a Listed race in the near future.

BALTHAZAAR'S GIFT BEST IN SMALL FIELDS

After he'd come from far back to run second in last year's Golden Jubilee the then trainer of BALTHAZAAR'S GIFT (41) said "that's the way to ride him, but with that sort of ride you need a bit of luck in running." He might have added that you also need a small field. Ultra late finishers invariably hit traffic problems when there are a dozen runners or more.

The record of Balthazaar's Gift demonstrates what I'm talking about. His win at Ascot last week was the fourth time he's won in five races where less than a dozen runners have lined up on good to soft or softer going (his sole loss was when it looked like he failed to get six furlongs the only time he tried heavy ground). He's failed to win in 13 other starts in bigger fields or on faster ground..

This being so I don't think we'll be seeing Balthazaar's Gift winning the Steward's Cup even if he gets his ground. In a small field on yielding ground though he's clearly very tough to beat.

PRIDE OF NATION SHOULD SWITCH TO GROUP RACES

PRIDE OF NATION (40) ran a seriously good Group 2 class time to take a hot little conditions race at York in bottomless ground. He wore ear plugs and this suggests that he dislikes the company of other horses. Add to this the fact that he was brought wide for his run in a big field at Sandown on his previous start and had encountered traffic problems in two other starts when lots of runners lined up and the conclusion seems obvious. Pride Of Nation may have won two low grade races in big fields. But in the better races his high handicap mark dictates he runs in now he needs a small field to be effective.

Pride Of Nation ran a Group 2 class time to win another Conditions race the only previous time he ran in a small field. I'd like to see him stepped up to Group company because he'd encounter small fields much more often. I'd see him as a slam dunk to win a Group 3 or Listed contest. And I don't think he'd need soft ground to do it. I reckon he only does so well on soft ground because it amplifies the lengths between the runners and makes it easier to manouver.

Runner-up SHUMOOKH (30) is almost boringly consistent and ran fast enough to take a Group race for the third time in his last four starts. He is surely going to win soon.

THE OIL MAGANTE SHOULD WIN NEXT TIME

You don't often see a fast time in a two year old race beyond six furlongs these days, especially this early in the season and from a debutante. So the Listed class time clocked by THE OIL MAGNATE (33) over seven furlong at Redcar first time out is definitely worthy of note.

The Oil Magnate is not that big, so the bump he received two furlongs out for drifting across the track can't have done him much good. He was running a bit green at that point but straightened up to finish strongly and nearly get up to the narrow winner MIDNIGHT MUSE (33).

The Oil Magnate is built and bred to want middle distances next year. And, judging by the way he finished, a step up to a mile or even longer would not go amiss at this stage. He certainly should break his maiden next time. One point I'd make is that he may need a smaller field (less than 12 runners) when he goes around a turn due to the trouble he's always going to have fighting for position against bigger horses.

Midnight Muse is a bigger, stronger horse than the runner-up and has a pretty big stride on him. No doubt he'll be running much longer trips next year as well. He was certainly doing his best work towards the finish here and picked up remarkably well as the second close in on him, lengthening his stride and still being full of run as they passed the line. He might well be able to at least place in pattern company over a mile or more as a juvenile.

Third placed TARKHEENA PRINCE (32) did a fair imitation of his sire Aldeberan in starting slowly and coming with a strong run from stone last. He started to hang just before the last furlong and his jockey eased off a bit to allow him time to straighten up. By the time he did so the post was almost reached and he was not subjected to a hard race. Nonetheless he still ran a close third.

Clearly Tarkheena Prince will be well supported next time following this eye-catching display. But that shouldn't stop him winning.

NORTHERN DARE SHOULD KEEP ON WINNING

I suggested here recently that NORTHERN DARE (37) would soon be winning over six furlongs. Sure enough he dotted up over the trip at York on heavy ground.

Northern Dare's official handicap mark massively understates his real level of ability. So much so that I think it's rather a pity he won't make the cut for the Ayr Gold Cup. He might just sneak into the Ayr Silver Cup if he packs in another couple of quick wins though. In any event I see him as a likely future winner of a valuable six furlong handicap.

SUDDEN IMPACT HAS A REAL SHOT AT THE CURRAGH

SUDDEN IMPACT (34) won a Thirsk maiden in a time that indicates she has a real shot in the Tattersalls Ireland Sales Stakes at the end of this month.

She set a strong early pace in this race but didn't begin to look totally comfortable till the last half furlong where she began to go away from her rivals and ended up winning a shade cozily. It looked to me that her stamina started to kick in late. This makes sense because everything else her dam has foaled stayed further than the five furlongs Sudden Impact has been kept to so far.

This being so the extra furlong of the big race in Ireland looks to be a plus for Sudden Impact. I'm going to think long and hard before I oppose her there.

SILVER SUITOR WOULD BE A SMART JUVENILE HURDLER

David Elsworth doesn't have that many jumps runners these days. But he still has the knack of choosing the right three year olds from his yard to send hurdling. And I bet he's giving serious consideration in that regard to SILVER SUITOR (36) who ground out a win in very fast time for a mile and a half maiden at Newmarket.

This big, long-striding sort was being niggled along all the way and looked in serious trouble with three furlongs to go. At this point his jockey was riding him along vigorously and the horse was going nowhere (he was 59-1 in running). But then the strong pace began to tell on his rivals and Silver Suitor began to pick them up. He ran around when he hit the front but this didn't stop him steadily clearing away from them to score by nearly four lengths.

This was the first time Silver Suitor had gone a mile and a half. And the trip looks the absolute minimum for him on this evidence. He'll make a good stayer on the flat and should be able to win a 1m 6f plus handicap in the near future. But his connections must surely be thinking about the possibility of Cheltenham next March. Certainly they'd get a bundle of money for him from the jumping yards if they stuck him in the Horses In Training Sale in October.

LES FAZZANI IS A USEFUL MILER

LES FAZZANI (37) clocked an exceptional time for a class 4 fillies' handicap on Kempton's Polytrack last week.

Early on it looked as though Les Fazzani was likely to win in a canter as she was visibly going far better than any of her rivals. It still looked that way with little more than a furlong to run as she cruised up on the outside. But then COMMA (37) found a tremendous burst and sprinted through on the rail, rapidly pulling clear of everything else. Les Fazzani's jockey had to give up the idea of coasting to a cheeky and narrow win which he seemed intent on and set off in earnest pursuit. Les Fazzani duly got there but it looked clear she would have been able to win by a bigger margin if only her jockey's view of the runner-up's finishing burst hadn't been obscured by a wall of horses.

I have no doubt that Les Fazzani will be able to win a Listed race on this showing, and I suspect she might actually be a bit better than that. However she does seem to have a rather narrow set of requirements. Her sire's best progeny have followed him in being best at a mile or less. And the eight wins scored by her dam and her foals have all been at a mile or less too. In addition all but one of their wins have come on good to firm or firmer turf or the AW (Les Fazzani's half sister Miss Lips won a German Listed race on sand).

Les Fazzani's jockey reported at Goodwood that his mount found even good ground too slow for her. So I strongly suspect that she's only going to show this level of form on turf when the official going description has the word 'firm' in it. That said, there should be plenty of opportunities for Les Fazzani to earn black type on fast ground over a mile in the next six weeks or so. If her connections chose to exploit her relatively low handicap mark she'd be an interesting proposition in a valuable handicap over a mile as well. But I doubt that they'll be wanting to waste the good weather when they can surely earn the black type the filly needs to become a valuable brood mare by shooting for Listed races instead.

COMMA (36) was niggled along to go the early pace but produced a remarkable turn of foot when her stamina finally kicked in with a furlong and a half to go. She would have been a wide margin winner if she hadn't bumped into a freakishly good rival for the class here.

Clearly Comma will be better suited to ten furlongs than the mile she raced over here. Equally clearly, she looks set to be winning in at least Listed company soon. But I doubt that we'll be seeing her in Britain for much longer. Her dam was a multiple Grade 1 winner in America and her owner tends to send young fillies like Comma over there (ones that aren't Group 1 class but could win in Graded company against the weaker opposition to be found on turf in the US).

VENTURA AND FRAGRANCY CAN EARN BLACK TYPE

VENTURA (37) broke her maiden by eight lengths on her second start and looked a most unlucky loser when losing a fillies' handicap at Windsor in a photo to FRAGRANCY (37). The pair sprinted clear of the field as they duelled to the finish and ran fast enough to win in Listed company. No doubt the objective for both of these well bred fillies will be to earn black type before the end of the season. On this run that should be no problem. Meanwhile either of them should have no problem taking handicaps.

OPAL HAZE LOOKS A PARK HILL CANDIDATE

You don't often see a horse break a track record when winning a maiden. But that's what OPAL HAZE (36) did when lengthening clear of the decent yardstick Wicked Days (33) to score over 12 furlongs at Kempton.

Opal Haze is a scopey, long-striding sort who looks likely to appreciate even further than this. I now see her as a viable candidate for the Park Hill Stakes and expect her to be stepped up to pattern company next time. The Galtres Stakes at York looks an obvious target and I'd rather fancy her chances there.

I'M NOT YET CONVINCED BY TURBO LINN

TURBO LINN (37) made it eight wins out of eight when taking the Plantation Stud Stakes at Newmarket last week. But I'm not yet convinced she's going to be capable of winning the much better races her connections are talking about. She was ridden right out here off a strong early pace yet only clocked a Listed class time. She's never run any faster according to my ratings. So I'll be inclined to oppose her in the Prix de Pomone at Deauville.

BEE EATER IS GROUP CLASS

BEE EATER (40) clocked a Group 2 class time to win a very decent fillies handicap at Newmarket. In fact she ran so fast it's pretty amazing that she's actually been beaten (though it was only the once in four starts when she went under narrowly after being denied a clear run).

On this run Bee Eater should have little difficulty in winning a Listed or even a Group race. In fact she's entered in the Listed Grosser Preis der Stadtsparkasse at Dusseldorf on August 19th. The concern for me is that race is over seven furlongs as is her only other engagement.

Clearly Bee Eater's connections feel that she'll get seven furlongs. I'm not so sure. Her sire's biggest win came in the July Cup and her dam didn't seem to quite get beyond six furlongs. In addition I got the impression from watching her win this that Bee Eater's right distance was six furlongs.

FULLANDBY MAY WELL BE BETTER OVER FIVE

FULLANDBY (39) is almost boringly consistent on yielding or softer ground over six and seven furlongs. But it wasn't until he was cut back to five furlongs that he finally scored the big win he deserved. The win came in a valuable sponsored handicap at Ayr.

Fullandby ran as fast as he ever has here and I'm now beginning to think that his best chance of winning another big handicap lies in the Hong Kong Jockey Club sprint at Ascot or the Portland at Doncaster rather than the Ayr Gold Cup. I suspect he's just a bit better over less than six furlongs when he gets the cut in the ground he so obviously needs.

Three year olds have a hard time beating older horses in sprints - probably because the weight for age scale wrongly assumes that the gap between older and younger horses decreases with distance. So it's understandable that runner-up GALLERY GIRL (38) blanked last year after running second in Listed and Group 3 company as a juvenile. With another year on her back she's once more running big races in valuable contests as she did here. She's best at five and six furlongs on good or slower ground, so her obvious target has to be the Ayr Gold Cup. Unfortunately her official rating has slipped to about ten pounds less than required to make the cut for that race. So it looks like she'll either have to win a couple of times in quick succession or shoot for the Ayr Silver Cup instead. The latter looks the more likely course as the ground will surely be against her until the Autumn.

TIDE TURNS FOR RIVER THAMES

RIVER THAMES (37) placed in Group 2 company as a juvenile. But, as is so often the case, found life hard against older horses in sprints last year. Now that he's more mature he's far more competitive and showed his best form yet to hose up in what had previously looked a tight sprint handicap at Ayr.

Until he proves me wrong I'm going to assume that River Thames now needs the cut in the ground he got at Ayr and is best over the six furlongs of that race. He's still going to be ludicrously well handicapped even with a huge penalty as his official rating has dropped by thirty pounds. So he ought to be able to rack up several more wins this season.

NORTHERN DARE NEEDS TO STEP UP TO SIX FURLONGS

NORTHERN DARE (37) was visibly struggling to go the early pace when winning a five furlong 3YO handicap at Ayr. But the yielding ground eventually tired his opponents so that in the final furlong he caught up to them and was cruising clear rapidly towards the finish.

Northern Dare has lost over seven furlongs previously and also over five furlongs on fast ground. But he won his only previous turf start over six furlongs and that is surely his right distance. He's far better than his official rating and looks set to be contesting the top six furlong handicaps for some years to come. Meanwhile I'd bet on him winning more races than he loses over six furlongs, or over five on yielding or softer ground, as long as he keeps running below class 3.

MISARO TOUGH TO BEAT ON FAST GROUND

MISARO (38) blew home by four lengths in seriously fast time for a class 4 handicap at Kempton. He's now won the last four times he's run on what I rate good or faster ground or on Polytrack. It looks likely that he has a couple of more wins in him before the handicapper forces him into the right class of competition.

EXPENSIVE ART SHOULD WIN AGAIN

EXPENSIVE ART (37) clocked a fast time to win a low grade sprint handicap on Lingfield's Polytrack. Her trainer says she needs a fast surface so I hope he keeps her to Polytrack next time. If he does I'd regard her as pretty much unstoppable in class 4 or 5 whether she stays at six furlongs or steps up to seven, which looks likely to suit her.

RIVER PROUD A BETTER PROSPECT THAN WINKER WATSON

I'm always distrustful of winners that come from far back to win races that have been run at a strong pace. They've paced themselves better than their rivals and expended less energy. So they're dependent on a fierce gallop and luck in running to show their best form.

WINKER WATSON (37) won the July Stakes in exactly this fashion. Early on he was being scrubbed along in last place, far behind the leaders. But he got rolling late to just get up on the line and win by a short head.

I can see how you could argue that Winker Watson will be able to stick closer to the pace over seven furlongs or more and that he needs longer than the 6f he ran here. But his sire has yet to produce a pattern winner beyond six furlongs and I need convincing Winker Watson will go longer.

Yes Winker Watson ran a very good time for a two year old this early in the year. But the short prices being quoted about him for the Guineas are just plain silly. The stats say it's too early to be looking for a 2000 Guineas winner.

Only Aiden O'Brien brings his Guineas winners out as early as Winker Watson made his racecourse debut. His first start was in April and the last 22 Two Thousand Guineas winners trained by anyone but O'Brien all had their first starts in the last week of June or later.

I'd be inclined to oppose Winker Watson if he goes for the Prix Morny as planned next time out. French two year old races are rarely as strongly run as the July Stakes was. So he's likely to be done for pace at the end of the contest rather than the beginning as he was here.

The horse that impressed me in the race was the runner-up RIVER PROUD (37). He was always up there and then made a big move in the last furlong to blast nearly two lengths clear of his rivals. Only a top class horse can break away from his rivals like that in a race this good.

River Proud is a good-bodied, mature, really classy looking horse who looks likely to improve over seven furlongs. He's due to step up to that trip in the Champagne Stakes at Goodwood where I reckon he'll be very hard to beat. After that the Dewhurst looks the obvious target.

River Proud is by a Kentucky Derby second out of an unraced half sister to dual Breeders' Cup Mile winner Da Hoss. So it looks like he'll get a mile though his physique strongly suggests he won't go an inch further.

DONEGAL IS A SMART STAYING JUVENILE

DONEGAL (35) had trouble going the pace when second over seven furlongs on his debut. But much softer ground brought his stamina into play when he scored over the same trip at York.

Donegal was always travelling best but had to be scrubbed along when the second and third went for home with two furlongs to run. Soon after though his obvious stamina kicked in and he started going away from his rivals, eventually going six lengths ahead despite running a bit green when out on his own.

Watching him race it seems clear Donegal is going to be a middle distance horse next year. So it looks a smart move on the part of his connections to step him up to a mile next time.

There actually aren't that many races over a mile this early in the season for two year olds. In fact there are only a couple of pattern races over the trip in the immediate future that Donegal could shoot for - the Criterium du Fonds Europeen de l'Elevage at Deauville and the Stonehenge Stakes at Salisbury. Stonehenge would carry my money in either of those races and he'd be a cert if he took in one of the handful of novice races that are coming up over a mile.

Long term the race I'd like to see Donegal shoot for is the Criterium de Sant Cloud over ten furlongs. I'm not yet sure that he'd be fully effective over the mile of the Royal Lodge or Racing Post Trophy unless it came up soft. In any event he's certainly a very interesting prospect.

IRRIDESCENCE HAS BIG CHANCE IN BEVERLY D

Simply Perfect (33) set a slow pace and caught her rivals flat-footed by quickening from the front to take the Falmouth Stakes.

Would Simply Perfect have won if she'd been taken on for the lead? Or did she really steal the race. I don't know. But the race was clearly a prep for the valuable Beverley D Stakes for IRRIDESCENCE (32). And I imagine that's why her jockey was reluctant to get involved in a taxing duel for the lead with this brilliant filly that has often set the pace in the past.

Irridescence clearly didn't adjust well to the switch to John Hammond in France. But when Mike De Kock got her back early this year she immediately bounced back to form with a good third in a hot race at Nad Al Sheba despite needing the run according to de Kock.

After that race de Kock told reporters that Irridescence was in the best shape of her career and that she had a good chance in the Dubai Duty Free. He said "She has come on for the run. Her work has been much better since the Jebel Hatta. She is recovering much quicker after her gallops, her weight has increased and she is into her routine."

Unfortunately Irridescence ran well below her best in the Dubai Duty Free. But on reflection that was predictable. She's now run unplaced all four times she's been asked to race in fields of sixteen or more as she was in the Dubai Duty Free. Her jockeys statement after the race confirmed this. He said “She is a bit of a quirky filly and everything has to go her way. I was happy with where she was, but she basically refused to gallop.” Obviously she hates being crowded.

Exclude that trip to France and her runs in big fields and the record of Irridescence shows eight wins out of eleven tries beyond sprint trips. She's a multiple Group 1 winner that has beaten colts in a big international Group 1 in Hong Kong and earned speed ratings as high as 42 from me. She's a high strung filly and this is probably why she seems best fresh. She'll still be fresh for the Beverley D and will surely take a lot of beating.

DANDY MAN STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR THE NUNTHORPE

It was a worthwhile experiment trying DANDY MAN (39) over six furlongs once more in the July Cup. He might well have developed a bit more stamina with age. It looks like he has because although he clearly didn't quite get home he did run within a few lengths of his five furlong form according to my speed ratings.

At five furlongs on fast ground Dandy Man is probably capable of beating any horse in Europe, except perhaps Enticing or Wi Dud. He's set to meet those two rivals in the Nunthorpe but I think he deserves to be favourite to beat them as he's run fast on many occasions while they've done so only a couple of times.

The winner SAKHEE'S SECRET (42) took a while to get going but powered through in the last furlong to win going away, full of running. Clearly the searching early pace stretched him at this trip. And looking at his physique I don't find this surprising. He's built like a seven furlong horse to my eye. If he were mine I'd be skipping the Nunthorpe Stakes with him and be inclined to go up rather than down in distance. After all there are a whole bunch of British sprinters that can run as fast as he did here over six furlongs according to my speed ratings but only a handful at seven furlongs. In any event his trainer said he had a hard race here so it looks like the question of whether he would have been effective over five furlongs in the Nunthorpe will be an academic one.

I've been banging on all season about DUTCH ART (41) being built like a sprinter not a miler. So I wasn't surprised to see him run his fastest ever race here to take second. I think it's a smart move to aim him at next month's Prix Maurice de Gheest which is often the weakest Group 1 of the season. Though I have to say I'd have a lot more confidence in Dutch Art if only he'd grown more from two to three. He was noticeably smaller than most of his rivals here and got into some traffic problems which a bigger horse would probably have been able to barge his way out of. This being so I think I'll be looking for something to beat him at Deauville.

The horse I now like the most for the Maurice De Gheest is ASSET (39) who ran a bit below his best to finish a close sixth here. He got a bit outpaced early on but was doing his best work towards the finish. He's proven over longer and matches the profile of past Maurice de Gheest winners. Eleven of the twelve winners of the big Deauville sprint since it attained Group 1 status have run three or fewer times previously that term and placed in pattern company over seven furlongs plus.

I note with interest that Asset has won all three times he's run in fields of 12 or less on yielding or faster ground since losing on his racecourse debut but lost al four times he's run in bigger fields. It seems to me that he gets stretched by the fast early pace that a big field tends to generate. I don't think he would be so stretched at six and a half or seven furlongs.

I don't know where third placed RED CLUBS (41) goes from here. This was his tenth loss in Group 1 company. Clearly he's not quite up to winning at the top level. Equally clearly he's better over six furlongs than he is over five or seven.

Last year's Maurice de Gheest winner MARCHAND D'OR (39) equaled his best ever speed rating and ranks as the top sprinter in France on this run. But the British sprinters are better than the French ones so I rather doubt that Marchand D'Or will be scoring a double. This year it looks like he'll be facing stronger opposition from the British team.

DON'T MISS LAVEROCK NEXT TIME OUT

LAVEROCK (35), like many ultra-late running sorts, does seem to need a smallish field to avoid traffic problems when delivering his run. For most horses a small field means less than a dozen runners and this appears to be the cut off point for Laverock as well.

Laverock ran a good race to be second to Papal Bull in a slow run Princess Of Wales's Stakes at Newmarket. And, if his record is anything to go by, he should be very hard to beat next time. So far Laverock has won all four times he's encountered a field of eleven or less on his second run following a break of two months or more.

I wouldn't dismiss Laverock's chances of winning the King George if he takes up his engagement in that race. The big Ascot feature normally attracts a field of 11 or less so it should suit Laverock perfectly. He's a dual Group 1 winner that has run fast enough to have a real chance of scoring again at the top level according to my speed ratings.

TRANQUIL TIGER THE ONE TO BEAT IN EBOR

If Glistening had won last year's Ebor instead of going under in a photo eleven of the last thirteen winners would have run nine or fewer times before taking Europe's most valuable handicap. TRANQUIL TIGER (38) must have an excellent chance of improving the record of lightly raced horses in the big York race following his recent win at Newmarket in the Bahrain Trophy.

Tranquil Tiger was always moving better than anything bar the eventual third SAMUEL (37) and still looked to have a bit in hand at the finish to my eye. He clocked a Group 3 time and is clearly at least that class.

Samuel was moving ominously well in second or third last place most of the way. But the pace slowed briefly and then quickened again between the three and two furlong poles and Samuel was caught flat-footed. In the last half furlong he finally got going and finished like a train on the outside, gaining ground hand over fist to lose by only a length.

Samuel was second to the Group racer Lion Sands in a very fast maiden on his previous start and has run progressively faster in all of his starts as he's been stepped up in distance. My gut feel is that he wants two miles and only ran so well here because the pace was strong almost throughout, making it a good test of stamina. He's in the St Leger but I don't see him getting competitive with the top class mile and a half horses that always win that race nowadays. Next year though I reckon he'll be a smart Cup horse.

ECHO OF LIGHT SHOULD GO FOR THE JUDDMONTE INTERNATIONAL

I thought that CESARE (39) was going to run below form in the Summer Mile at Ascot because he wasn't quite fresh enough to produce a peak effort. As it turned out he did run below form according to my speed figures but still managed to win.

Cesare is a top class miler. But he's unfortunate to be around in a year when there are a whole slew of top class older milers in training. Normally the milers are a weaker bunch than the sprinters or middle distance runners. Not this year. So, seeing that he needs to be kept fresh and given that his next race will be the Group 2 Celebration Mile on August 25th, I don't see how Cesare is going to be fresh enough to win a Group 1 this season. The QEII is only a month after the Celebration Mile and he's hardly likely to skip that because he loves Ascot so much. If he runs there he won't be fresh enough to win any Group 1 mile race barring the Hong Kong Mile in December.

In all probability this will be Cesare's last win of the season.

Fourth placed ECHO OF LIGHT (36) on the other hand was having his very first start of the season. And he seems destined to take a Group 1 race before long. He's twice earned proper Group 1 speed ratings from me.

Echo Of Light is a decidedly quirky horse. On two occasions he has charged into the lead and set a completely unsustainable pace. And on several others he has ruined his chance by hanging badly to his left. He did that once more here. And the only thing that prevented him going right across the track was the unfortunate fifth placed finisher DUNELIGHT (35) who he bumped twice in the closing stages, costing them both ground and momentum.

Echo Of Light had ruined Dunelight's chances beforehand anyway by heading him in the early stages. Dunelight looks to be what American punters call a 'need to lead' horse. He's won all three times he's been allowed an uncontested lead since breaking his maiden but lost all nine times he hasn't.

It's now rather obvious that Echo Of Light is best on left-handed courses as that's the way he hangs. He's now won all four of his starts on left handed tracks in fields smaller than 12 (he's finished unplaced all four times he's run in races with 12 or more runners).

Echo Of Light did somehow contrive to win the Group 2 Prix Daniel Wildenstein at Longchmp going left-handed. But that was a very weak renewal of the contest and once more he hung left. He's lost every other time he's been asked to run on right-handed or straight courses.

Echo Of Light's fastest ever run according to my speed ratings came when he blew home by seven lengths from a strong field over an extended ten furlongs at Doncaster. Doncaster is a flat, left-handed galloping track with a homestraight of four furlongs. So is York. Therefore the race for Echo Of Light just has to be next month's Juddmonte International. His other three entries are all on right-handed courses.

The top French miler RACINGER (32) also tends to hang and did so once more in this race. It's hard to escape the conclusion that Racinger is best on left-handed courses as he's won all three times he's run less than ten furlongs on left-handed racks but lost all nine times he's gone on straight or right-handed tracks lke Ascot.

The race I'd be shooting for with Racinger is the Woodbine Mile in Canada. Sadly, all the remaining Group 1's over a mile in Europe are set to be run on right-handed courses. He needs to win a Group 1 to have any real prospects as a stallion. It's just unfortunate that the Prix de Muguet

which he won in May hasn't been awarded that status. The Muguet is invariably a slightly stronger contest than the Lockinge Stakes which is run shortly after. And I strongly suspect that, like the Lockinge Stakes, it would have been upgraded from a Group 2 if only the French were as good at lobbying the International Pattern Committee to upgrade their pattern races as the British.

IMPERIAL ECHO MUST SURELY WIN SOON

IMPERIAL ECHO (39) earned a Group class speed rating from me for the third time in the last 13 months when finishing a half length second to the highly progressive COUNTDOWN (40) at York. He's clearly a far better horse over seven furlongs than the five or six he used to race over.

My read of Imperial Echo is that he is best around a turn and prefers a galloping track. So far he's run three times around a turn on a galloping track and would have won all three times if he hadn't bumped into a freakishly good horse for the class here.

Trainer David Barron has said that he believes Imperial Echo will stay a mile. This opens up a lot of possibilities for the horse. He can surely be found an opportunity on a galloping track around a turn soon (at the upcoming York meeting for example).

Countdown looks to be best around a turn too. It may well be he prefers cut in the ground and smaller fields as well. This means he'll be a bit harder to place than the runner up. But he's so fast and so well handicapped he's just got to win something decent before the season is out.

SHMOOKH SHOULD WIN IN GROUP COMPANY

SHMOOKH (40) came within half a second of Stravinky's track record when winning a red hot six furlong handicap for three year olds at Newmarket. Clearly he is smart sprinter.

It's now pretty obvious that Shmookh doesn't stay beyond sprint trips and needs fast ground. He lost on his racecourse debut but has won all three times he's contested sprints on fast ground since then.

The objective now I would imagine will be to gain a Group win for Shmookh as his pedigree is good enough to ensure he'd be able to stand as a stallion if he won a race at that level.

On this run Shmookh is at least Group 2 class. The race I'd be aiming him at would be the Prix Maurice de Gheest, a French 6.5 furlong contest that is often the weakest Group 1 of the season for older horses.

OFF THE RECORD (40) has a similar record to the winner in that he'd lost on his racecourse debut but won all four sprints he subsequently contested till losing narrowly here. He's a Group class sprinter that's still eligible for handicaps. No doubt his trainer, James Given, will be exploiting this fact by shooting for something like the Stewards Cup or Ayr Gold Cup. With a favourable draw, he'd be a big player in either of those races.

THEANN A USEFUL MUDLARK

THEANN (39) won the Group 3 Summer Stakes at York in a time that suggests she's capable of beating colts at the same level. The proviso is that she clearly needs the soft ground this race was run on and is probably best at six furlongs. She's run big races all four times she's run on soft ground at six furlongs.

OBSTRUCTIVE IS PATTERN CLASS OVER FIVE FURLONGS

OBSTRUCTIVE (38) won a five furlong handicap at Chester in pattern class time. But for a short head defeat by the useful Sundae he would now be unbeaten in three starts over the minimum distance. He'll be tough to beat over five furlongs in the immediate future.

LORD RYEFORD GETS INTERESTING

LORD RYEFORD (37) streaked home by a big margin in a strongly run handicap chase at Stratford, clocking an unusually fast time for the off season. His trainer, Tom George says that he's still improving and best on left-handed tracks. It also looks clear that he doesn't handle soft ground and it's quite possible that he prefers smaller fields.

So far Lord Ryeford has run four times on good or faster ground in fields of 11 or less on left-handed tracks. His only loss in those four outings was a half length loss on his chasing debut following a seven month lay-off.

DOUBLE DEPUTY A USEFUL STAYING HURDLER

DOUBLE DEPUTY (36) was a three time winner for Godolphin on the flat. But he looked to be floundering over hurdles until last week at Market Rasen where for the first time he had the combination of a marathon distance and a recent run. The result was a win in the kind of time you rarely see in the off season over jumps in Britain.

Double Deputy is a long way ahead of the handicapper on this run. So I'd anticipate more wins than losses from him in his next half dozen or so starts.

Runner-up MODEL SON (36) pulled 13 lengths clear of the rest to run Double Deputy close. In doing so he ran right up to his best chase form.

Model Son came into this race off a four month break. His wins have all occurred on one of his first two completed starts following a three month break or with a five week plus rest thereafter. So I'd predict another big run from him next time whether he sticks to hurdles or goes back over fences. After that I'd oppose him till he's rested again.

GEORGE WASHINGTON SHOULD HAVE WON

I thought GEORGE WASHINTGON (39) was one of the best bets of the season in the Eclipse. And, having watched the video of the race several times, I'd still be just as confident about his chances wee the race to be run again.

Two furlongs out, George Washington's jockey went for a gap that closed on him, causing the horse to snatch up briefly and lose momentum. A furlong out the same thing happened again though the consequences weren't as severe this time.

When he got clear George Washington surged forward and gained ground quickly all the way to the line, finishing full of run.

My speed ratings tell me that George Washington can run several lengths faster than he did here. And my read of the video says he certainly should have done so.

Watching him run I was struck with how much like a dirt horse George Washington looked. Dirt horses are on average fifty pounds heavier and an inch shorter than turf horses of the same class and age which run the same distance according to a survey of estimated heights and weights that I conducted a few years ago. The lower center of gravity and shorter strides of dirt runners gives them better traction on a surface that has only 10% of the shear resistance of turf.

Dirt horses don't have push-button acceleration either. They gain ground with a surge rather than a burst. All of this describes George Washington.

If he were mine I would be entering George Washington for the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park on September 30th. A win in that race would boost his stud value tremendously. And the great thing about it is that Belmont Park is a mile and a half in circumference. So George Washington wouldn't experience any difficulty coping with tight turns as he did at Goodwood last year and also perhaps at Churchill Downs.

One reason I was so confident about George Washington were some statistics which suggested hot favourite AUTHORIZED (39) was in big trouble. The statistics concerned Derby winners cutting back to shorter than a mile and a half as three year olds. Twelve Epsom and Irish Derby winners before Authorized had attempted this since 1990 and they'd al lost the first time they tried a shorter distance.

I find it hard to see just where Authorized goes from here. Today's thoroughbreds are much more speedily bred and far less robust. So they can't take tough races back to back like they used to, especially when they're not yet fully mature. This is shown by the fact that not one of the last 35 three year olds to contest the Eclipse has gone on to run in the King George. The only two 3YO's that have run in both races in the last fifteen years ran seventh and eighth in the second contest. Clearly the Ascot race comes too soon for them nowadays.

In confess that if I owned Authorized I'd be hugely tempted to retire him to stud right away in order to protect his stud value. The only reasonable alternative would be to lay him off until September and then bring him back for the Prix Niel before taking a shot at the Arc. If his connections continue to run him against the top older horses without a break I predict he'll go the same way as most recent Epsom Derby winners and fail to win again.

The Eclipse winner NOTNOWCATO (40) came only a tick closer to the standard time than the winner of the preceding handicap. Yet, amazingly, he ran fast enough to win this prestigious Group 1.

I think Notnowcato provides a great lesson to owners of horses who shy away from taking on runners with tall reputations in big Group 1 races. Notnowcato has earned speed ratings of 39 and 40 from me his entire career. He's never run faster. Normally that's only good enough to win a Group 2. But by simply running in the big Group 1's he's been around at the right time when top class rivals have run below form for one reason or another. The result has been that he's scored three Group 1 wins.

DON'T UNDER-ESTIMATE HOH MIKE

Last year HOH MIKE (42) was earning huge speed ratings from me at a remarkably early stage of the season for a two year old. I figured he would go on to win in Group 1 company but he failed to do so.

Now though Hoh Mike is once more showing the sort of form that precedes a win at the top level. His latest success at Sandown marks him out as a proper Group 1 horse.

It looks like Hoh Mike is better at five furlongs than six. After all, he failed to last the six furlongs in heavy ground at Newcastle and has won four out of seven at five furlongs compared with one from six at the longer trip.

A shrewd race reader I know predicted that Hoh Mike would improve when given a steep uphill finish and he's been proven right as Hoh Mike has now won both times he's run at Sandown. But I suspect that the searching early pace of Group 1 races will pull his rivals back to him just as well as the severe uphill climb does at Sandown. So I reckon Hoh Mike's a key player for the Nunthorpe and the Abbaye.

Runner-up WI DUD (41) ran back to the same form he showed when taking the Flying Childers Stakes at York last year. The Nunthorpe is over the same course and distance as the Flying Childers, and the flat track will probably suit Wid Dud better than Hoh Mike. So he looks to have a real chance of turning this form around in the big race next month.

THE GREY BERRY LOOKS A CAMBRDIGSHIRE CANDIDATE

I haven't seen an easier winner than THE GREY BERRY (36) in a long time. It looks clear from the video of the race that he could have extended his winning margin significantly at Beverley last Saturday. But even with his jockey sitting stock still and allowing him to win cheekily by just half a length he still clocked a pattern class time.

In the early stages The Grey Berry was being scrubbed along to go the strong early pace. But the heavy ground and the steady uphill rise eventually brought his obvious stamina into play and he came through absolutely cruising to take the lead. He's now unbeaten in three starts this term and is clearly a very serious horse.

Obviously The Grey Berry is going to be wanting longer than the extended mile of this race before long. But the nine furlongs of the Cambridgeshire should be far enough for him, given the searching early pace that race normally features.

So just how good is The Grey Berry? My gut feel from watching the video is that he could have opened up another five lengths if he'd been pressed. That would make him one of the top three year olds in training. But even an extra three lengths would make him a very decent Group horse and certainly a serious candidate for the Cambridegshire.

Runner-up SMUGGLER'S BAY (36) was going much the best in the early stages but was simply outclassed by the hard held winner. He quickly pulled seven lengths clear of the rest as he vainly tried to contain The Grey Berry and is clearly a useful horse in his own right. Blinkers seem to have improved him tremendously and I'd bet on him franking this form soon.

ORDNANCE ROW OUGHT TO STEP UP TO GROUP COMPANY

ORDNANCE ROW (39) won the very valuable totesccop6 handicap over a mile on the Eclipse Card in Group class time. His handicap mark is so high now he will surely step up to pattern company. I think it would be a smart move if he does too because my read of his form is that he's best around a turn and most handicaps that he could get into (the Cambridgeshire for example) are on straight courses.

So far Ordnance Row has run beyond seven furlongs around a turn on tracks without pronounced undulations on three occasions and won every single time. He'd be more than good enough to take a Group 2 around a turn on my ratings and would hose up in a Listed contest.

COLORADO RAPID (39) ran a huge race for a three year old taking on older runners to finish second by half a length. He too would be competitive in Group company. The difference is that his handicap mark is still low enough to ensure he'd carry a reasonable weight in a big handicap like the Cambridgeshir or more likely at Glorious Goodwood, a meeting where his trainer, Mark Johnston, has excelled in recent years.

RAFFAAS GETS INTERESTING FOR MELROSE

When a good horse runs in a race beyond a sprint trip against inferior rivals the clock can only tell you so much about its true level of ability. Once they've gone clear by a big margin there's no need for them to run any faster so you're left guessing about how much they had in hand.

This is the situation we have with RAFFAAS (36) who broke Lingfield's track record for 1m 5f when winning an ordinary handicap by six lengths last week.

Raffaas won his only other start this season too and has clearly improved for being gelded. It's perfectly possible he's Group class. All I can say at this point is that he ran a Listed class time here and deserves a shot at the York's Melrose Handicap next month. That race usually produces a St Leger prospect and it's perfectly possible that Raffaas will be good enough to win it providing he gets the fast ground he apparently needs.

JUNIOR LOOKS A BIG PLAYER IN THE CESAREWITCH

JUNIOR (37) is going to be laid off and brought back for another hurdling campaign following his win in fast time on Kempton's Polytrack. But before he goes back over timber he'll be given a shot at the Cesarewitch, and my speed ratings say that's a good idea.

You could argue that Junior is best on fast ground as he's won three out of four at 12 furlongs plus on good or faster ground or Polytrack, with his sole loss being a good second to Grade 1 hurdles winner Punjabi. However I suspect he acts on any going and is best fresh. He wasn't fresh for his first win. But this is not uncommon with horses that need to be fresh later. The likelihood is that he simply wasn't fit enough on his first three runs. Now that he has is it looks like he's best on his first two starts off a three month break and needs a five week plus rest between runs thereafter in order to produce his best.

It looks like Junior will be fresh for the Cesarewitch so he looks a big player for that race. He also looks a good bet to win more hurdle races during the Winter.

LUSCIOUS LIPS CAN WIN AGAIN

LUSCIOUS LIPS (33) clocked an unusually fast time for a horse that seems destined to run in nurseries when scoring at Windsor. It may well be that it wasn't the soft ground which improved her but the greater test of stamina that it provided. This being so I'll be rather interested in her chances when she steps up to six furlongs in handicap company. Certainly she ought to be winning again soon wherever her connections decide to place her.

HOW'S SHE CUTTIN DESERVES A SHOT AT LISTED COMPANY

HOW'S SHE CUTTIN (37) is proving almost unstoppable at five furlongs. If a couple of close finishes had gone the other way she would now have won eight times out of nine at the minimum distance. The only time she's been beaten by more than half a length at the distance was when she ran second to Raccoon who can run times that would win Group 2 sprints for fillies.

I see that How's She Cuttin is entered in a five furlong Listed race for fillies at Ayr. She deserves a shot at that race or a similar one. And she'd have a great chance of success.

The one concern about How's She Cuttin is that she tends to shift ground to her right. This hasn't affected her much in the rats and mice races she's been running in so far. But it will probably cost her victory against better rivals. So I suspect she'll now do best when she a rail to race against, preferably on the right hand side of the track. When she's drawn more than four off the rail I'd be wary of supporting her in higher grade races.

TOPARUDI IS A USEFUL STAYER

TOPARUDI (37) is now six years of age. But it wasn't until this year that he was tried beyond a mile and a quarter on the flat. It turns out he is a much better horse at longer trips. But, so far at least, he has shown a tendency to pull too hard for his own good if the early pace is slow. He's now won the last two times he's run in strongly run races and pulled hard before tiring in the other two.

Last week at Sandown Toparudi encountered a strong gallop and won in a time fast enough to give him a shot in a big staying handicap. The obvious target would be the Cesarewitch but I think the wide open spaces would not be suitable for a hard pulling horse like him as he'd see too much daylight (he's run dreadfully the only two times he's run there, pulling like a train and getting beat 39 lengths on the latest occasion). Besides Toparudi's current official handicap mark is so low he probably wouldn't make the cut for that race.

It could well be that Toparudi will learn to settle better as he gets used to running longer distances. In any event he looks tough to beat in the ordinary handicaps he still qualifies for.

PROTECTOR IS A SMART SPRINTER WHEN FRESH

PROTECTOR (41) clocked a seriously fast time when running away with a valuable six furlong handicap at Newcastle. He clearly appreciated the heavy ground. But I don't think that was the only reason he improved on recent form. Looking at his form I reckon Protector also needs to be fresh. All his wins have come on one of his first two starts off a three month plus break or with a rest of longer than a month thereafter. In addition he's never run up to his best when the official going description has had the word 'firm' in it, when he's worn headgear or gone longer than six and a half furlongs. Toss out his runs in those circumstances and his remaining starts would show ten wins from eleven tries but for three narrow losses.

If I'm right about Protector he will run below form next time out unless he's rested for longer than 30 days. I'd like to see him kept fresh for a shot at the Ayr Gold Cup.

CONFUCHIAS SAYS 'I LIKE MUD'

Dandy Man isn't the only high class sprinter in Ireland. The three year old CONFUCHIAS (40) ran almost as fast when taking the Group 3 Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle.

Clearly the determining factor with Confuchias is the ground. He's won all three times he's run on yielding or softer ground and lost al four times he hasn't.

Trainer Francis Ennis is right to consider the Prix Maurice De Gheest for Confuchias. That race is probably Europe's weakest Group 1 race for older horses and Confuchias ran as fast as the average winner here. The problem is the Maurice De Gheest is usually run on good or faster ground and the official going reports in France are hopelessly misleading. (The only vaguely reliable way to tell the ground in France is to check the times of races at the most recent local meeting.) So Ennis will just have to cross his fingers and hope for soft ground if he ships Confuchias over for that race.

SILVER TOUCH LOOKS INTERESTING FOR THE PRIX FORET

Before last Saturday's Criterion Stakes at Newmarket SILVER TOUCH (40) had come into a race of seven furlongs plus off a break of six weeks or more twice and won both times. She made it three out of three when taking the Group 3 contest in fast time.

There is only one Group 1 race for older horses over seven furlongs in Europe and that is the Prix Foret. That race looks certain to be the big target for Silver Touch now. If she is kept fresh for the race I'd give her a big chance of winning as it is invariably a very weak Group 1.

The owner's racing Manager Bruce Raymond said after the race that Silver Touch is a big powerful filly who needs cut in the ground. There's a good chance she'll get that in the Prix Foret as it's run in the Autumn. Another tempting target would be the Sun Chariot Stakes which is run at the same time. But that race is over a mile and she's probably best over seven furlongs.

MAJOR CADEAUX (40) ran the filly close, showing improvement for the cut back in trip from the Guineas. Clearly seven furlongs is his distance. As with the winner, the Prix Foret has to be his logical target, perhaps by way of the Prix Maurice De Gheest.

WINGED CUPID AS GOOD AS EVER

Godolphin haven't exactly been doing that well recently with new acquisitions on their first run for the stable. Before WINGED CUPID (39) won the Midsummer Stakes at Windsor last week the last 25 horses they'd acquired from other yards had lost first time out for Saeed Bin Suroor. This being so it looks highly likely that Winged Cupid is going to improve for this effort. And it was a mighty fine effort. He surged clear in the closing stages to win in a time that would take many Group 2 contests.

Winged Cupid had been off for nearly two years with leg trouble, so the suspicion must be that he was held back from returning until the soft ground arrived. I'd therefore be wary of supporting him on fast ground until he's shown he can handle it. Nonetheless he looks another potential Group 1 winner as he should for the run and ought to do better over longer than the extended mile of this race given his middle-distance pedigree.

CELTIC SPIRIT CAN WIN A BIG HANDICAP

CELTIC SPIRIT (37) won a hot class 3 handicap over ten furlongs at Salisbury in Listed class time. He needs a strong gallop to be fully effective according to his trainer Ralph Beckett. This certainly seems true as he has now won all three times he's run in what my speed ratings suggest were strongly run races on grass (they invariably go slow early on Polytrack so I doubt that surface will ever suit him).

Beckett suggested after the race that Celtic Spirit will probably stay a mile and three quarters, half a mile longer than he ran here. This being so I strongly suspect he doesn't really need cut in the ground or even such a strong pace. All he really needs is a longer distance.

The obvious target for Celtic Spirit would seem to be the Ebor. His handicap mark will need to go up a few more pounds for him to make the cut in that race. But one more win should do the trick, and in his present form that looks very likely to be forthcoming.

OH GLORY BE (36) pulled six lengths clear of the rest to chase Celtic Spirit home, validating her trainer's statement that "she is not far off Listed class".

It looks very likely that Oh Glory Be prefers small fields. For most horses this means less than a dozen runners. So far she has won two times out of three and run second in this race in contests with 11 or less runners and run unplaced all five times she's faced bigger fields. She'll face big fields more often than not if she sticks to handicaps. So the logical thing to do is surely test the idea that she is pattern class by shooting for a Listed race. My ratings say that Richard Hannon is right to say she is up to that class.

HI CALYPSO SHOULD WIN A LISTED RACE

Any seemingly minor race where they award a trophy to the winner invariably attracts a much stronger field than is the norm for the class. Clearly, owners like having trophies to put on their shelves.

The Bibury Cup is a good example of this. It's supposedly only a class 3 contest but it normally produces a pattern class winner.

For a pattern class horse to get into a class 3 race it must be lightly raced. And if it is pattern class it will almost certainly have already won that same season. Indeed, 16 of the last 20 Bibury Cup winners have had six or fewer previous starts and had won already that same season.

Fillies have a very good record in Bibury Cup. They've won five of the last nine times one of them has fit the profile I've set out above. So it was no big surprise that the latest winner of the race was HI CALYPSO (37), a well bred filly who looks set to be earning black type in the near future. She beat a strong field in fast time and has clearly improved for the step up to twelve furlongs.

MAD RUSH (37), a lightly raced colt trained by Luca Cumani, clearly appreciated the step up to twelve furlongs and only went under by a short head. If he'd had luck in running last time and hadn't come up against a pattern class rival here he'd have won all three of his starts since his losing racecourse debut. He's improving and looks set to win something decent soon.

RIO RIVA DOES IT AGAIN

RIO RIVA (39) has earned speed ratings from me that would win him Group 3 or even Group 2 races on several occasions and did so again at Newcastle last week. Previously I'd thought that he needed breaks between his runs. Until now all his wins had come on his first two starts following a two month break or with a five week plus break thereafter.

In fact, Rio Riva was eased up when losing his previous start by 30 lengths 27 days ago. In other words he didn't really have a race, and his next to last start was 39 days before. So I think it would be unwise to assume he can now run well without being fresh.

It looks rather likely that Rio Riva doesn't stay nine furlongs and finds seven furlongs too short. It also seems clear he dislikes tight turns. His trainer says he's at his best with a bit of cut in the ground too. So he has a horribly narrow set of preferences.

The only obvious big race for Rio Riva is the Lincoln Handicap which he ran second in from a bad draw this year. That race is over a mile, comes early enough in the year to ensure he'll be fresh and is often run on soft ground.

If he were mine I'd lay Rio Riva off for a couple of months and bring him back in the Autumn for a shot at a couple of Group races over a mile on soft ground. Stepping him up to Group company would open up more opportunities than just the one big race a year.

TEMPELSTERN SHOULD WIN AGAIN

German horses stay so well and are becoming so popular with big owners that it's only a matter of time before one of them wins the St Leger. And you never know it might just happen this year because the German bred TEMPELSTERN (36) has just run fast enough to warrant a step up to pattern company by winning a Yarmouth maiden by a wide margin.

Tempelstern had lost his bit on his last two starts and was fitted with a ring bit to stop that happening again. His jockey made good use of his stamina, setting a strong pace from the outset.

No doubt trainer Henry Cecil will keep Tempelstern to handicap company in the immediate future. But it's worth bearing in mind that the horse only needs to improve a couple of lengths per mile to become a serious St Leger candidate.

GREEN PARK PROBABLY BEST IN A SMALL FIELD

GREEN PARK (38) won Newcastle's Gosforth Park Cup in fast time. But I very much doubt that he would have done so if there hadn't been five withdrawals due to the soft ground. His record clearly indicates that he is one of those horses that needs less than a dozen runners to get competitive. It also seems clear he needs a recent run, is only effective at five furlongs and doesn't even get that far on a very stiff track like Sandown.

Green Park has won four times out of five in fields of 11 or less at five furlongs, excluding at Sandown, when he's had a run within three weeks. His sole loss was in a photo finish. Obviously he's hard to place but the flip side is that he's likely to say well handicapped.