AQLAAM WILL STAY LONGER

AQLAAM (40) is a classy looking horse that won the Group 2 Summer Mile in a time that puts him not far off the top milers. But seeing how long it took him to get on top and how strongly he was moving at the finish persuaded me to go and look at his pedigree.

My suspicion was that he would appreciate a step up in distance and I wanted to see if there was evidence for this in his pedigree. There certainly was. His only sibling to race won over a mile and a half while the dam is a half sister to stacks of mile and a half plus winners including that highly popular stayer Persian Punch.

Talk of the Breeders’ Cup Mile after the race from connections was, I’m sure, just the kind of thing people say in the excitement of the moment. Risking such a top heavy horse, one that’s broken a hip and a knee on firm ground in the past, on the lightning fast ground they have in California, would be silly. Besides, you’d have to question how well Aqlaam would handle the tight seven furlong oval.

If Aqlaam is going to be kept to a mile the most likely place for another win has to be back at Ascot in the QEII. The stiff course and searching gallop the race is normally run at favours horses that stay longer than a mile.

Old CESARE (32) would also be interesting for the QEII as long as he’s kept fresh for the race. It looks pretty clear now that Cesare is best when he's much fresher than he was here. All but one of his eight wins since his maiden success have come off a break longer than six weeks. In fact he's won seven of the last nine times he's run after being rested for more than six weeks. But he's only scored one of the last twelve times he's been returned to the races more quickly. This being so I think we can forgive Cesare his lapse here and expect him to bounce back to form when he’s been rested.

Another horse that in hindsight was in the wrong race is WITHOUT A PRAYER (27). I though there was a good argument for saying he actually preferred shorter trips. But the fairly slow pace they went for the first couple of furlongs clearly put a lot more emphasis on speed than he wanted for the remainder of the race. He lacked the acceleration needed to escape being caught four wide all the way around the turn. By the time they turned into the homestraight the jig was up and he soon tired. On reflection he’s built like a mile and a quarter horse and his two recent big runs over shorter trips were over 114 and 67 yards beyond a mile. I think that’s the bare minimum for him and that ideally he wants to go back up to ten furlongs. I still have my eye on him as a likely Group winner as he keeps on running fast enough to win at least a Group 3.

SECRET SOCIETY CAN WIN ANOTHER BIG HANDICAP

SECRET SOCIETY (38) is just the sort of horse that excels in big handicaps. He tends to idle in front and is best when he can find plenty of cover. So he likes the big fields that big handicaps tend to attract and wins by narrow enough margins to escape being penalized too heavily.

After going under by just a head in the Britannia Handicap, where his jockey felt he may have hit the front too soon, Secret Society cut back to seven furlongs to take another valuable handicap at Ascot in a photo with an ultra-late run from SURUOR (38).

Thanks to what my research suggests is an overly generous WFA allowance Secret Society can run in either the International Handicap over the same course and distance or the Totesport Mile at Goodwood off a very favourable mark. He looks a top candidate for either of those races.

Runner up Suruor appears less versatile as to distance than the winner. He seems best at exactly seven furlongs. He won a slow run mile race at Newmarket but it looked like he failed to last the final furlong in a more strongly run Britannia Handicap. Nonetheless he’s awfully smart for a horse with an official rating of only 88, so he should be pretty easy to place in the near future.

MISHEER IS SMART

MISHEER (36) was always moving much the best from halfway in the Group 2 Cherry Hinton Stakes at Newmarket and drew away smoothly in the closing stages despite drifting rather badly right. She clocked a time that should make her competitive in Group 1 races for juvenile fillies too.

The question now is whether Misheer will stay more than six furlongs. Neither her sire no her dam did so. But her dam’s sister lasted a mile. And the way she so clearly improved for the step up from five to six furlongs does suggest she could go a bit further. Right now though I have my doubts and would be inclined to bet against her over seven furlongs. However she looks a big player for the Lowther Stakes if she takes up her entry in that.

GOLDIKOVA CAN RUN A GOOD DEAL FASTER

At first glance the half length success of GOLDIKOVA (39) in the Falmouth Stakes doesn’t read so well. But there was a sprint finish to the race. They came home half a second quicker over the last three furlongs than they did in the shorter Cherry Hinton Stakes on the same card, and distances between runners are always compressed in sprint finishes. As her trainer said “I don't think there was much pace early. When they sprint for 800 yards it is hard to get away from them.“

In addition it’s clear from the video that Goldikova had a good deal in hand. Her jockey was content to maintain a narrow lead by riding her along just hands and heels in the final furlong while her rivals were much harder ridden.

Like most of Freddy Head's best horses, Goldikova seems to take a while to come to hand. So far she's won seven out of seven from July onwards and lost four out of four earlier in the year. Head seems to train his top runners to peak for the big Group 1's in the second half of the season. So far he's blanked with all eighteen of his Group 1 runners in June or earlier but won eleven times out of fourty in Group 1 races from July onwards.

I’d say that Goldikova is well on track for her bid for a double in the Breeders’ Cup Mile where her terrific finishing kick will surely give her a great chance of pulling it off. It looks like she’ll follow the same schedule as last year and be given a rest after the Marois to be fresh for the big American race.

ORPEN GREY MAY BE A BETTER PROSPECT THAN ARCANO

I confess that I am fond of grey horses and am pleased that we more top flat horses that are this colour than at any time I can recall in the recent past. It could well be that ORPEN GREY (36) is going to join their ranks judged by his smart run in the July Stakes at Newmarket.

For most of the race Orpen Grey was just lobbing along in the lead, moving better than his rivals. The winner ARCANO (37) did him for a turn of foot in the closing stages. But I liked the way Orpen Grey pulled three lengths clear of the rest as he rallied and tried to go with Arcano. My impression was that if Orpen Grey had perhaps gone a bit harder in the lead and established a bigger advantage he might well have held on. I can see him lasting seven furlongs too, maybe even a mile.

That said Arcano is a muscular, mature sort that put up a high class performance to get by Orpen Grey, clocking a time that would normally give him a big shot of winning the Group 1 Prix Morny. This year though the Morny is set to feature Canford Cliffs, a freakishly fast two year old that looks awfully hard to beat. Still there’s no point running scared of a single horse, so it makes sense to send Arcano to France.

I think Arcano’s trainer is right to say the horse will stay longer and is a great long term prospect.

SEA THE STARS EVERY BIT AS GOOD AS THEY ALL SAY

I hate being proved wrong. But the time SEA THE STARS (45) clocked when winning the Eclipse leaves no room for doubt. He is one of the best horses of recent years.

In the last thirteen years there have been 304 races run over ten furlongs at Sandown. In winning the Eclipse Sea The Stars ran 1.2 seconds faster than any of them.

I thought I'd found a powerful statistical reason for siding against Sea The Stars in that the last fourteen Epsom and Irish Derby winners to cut back to less than a mile and a half at three had all lost the first time they tried the shorter trip. But class laughs at statistics like that and Sea The Stars clearly has stacks of class. He looked in trouble when RIP VAN WINKLE (44) charged at him in the closing stages but showed terrific courage to pick up again and actually go away from the Coolmore runner.

I just hope I haven't jumped on the bandwagon too late as Sea The Stars looked rather tired in the closing stages and will surely take a while to get over this race. For this reason the King George must be out of the question. Sea The Stars has always had at least four weeks between his runs and will surely need longer than that.

In a normal year I'd be saying that Sea The Stars was basically unbeatable on the basis of this run. But we have a freakishly strong group of three year olds this year and Sea The Stars will have to get by another one from Coolmore in Matercraftsman if he is to prevail in his next likely target the Juddmonte International. That race should be worth going a long way to see.

Rip Van Winkle has been awfully unlucky to lose his last four races. He lacked the pace to get himself out of traffic problems in the Dewhurst and the Guineas over shorter trips. Then he was marooned at the back of the field in the Derby when his pacemakers set much too slow a pace. Now he's gone and run a good deal faster than almost any Eclipse winner and still lost.

The strong challenge that Rip Van Winkle staged entering the final furlong would have carried him past pretty much any other horse on the planet. It's hard to see him losing next time out even if he does cut back to a mile.

CONDUIT (40) ran basically the same race as when losing narrowly to CIMA DE TRIOMPHE (37) over the course and distance on his seasonal debut. And it does now seem that ten furlongs is a bit on the short side for the St Leger winner. However his owner's racing manager reminded us after the race that he's being trained very much with the second half of the season in mind. His big target is clearly a repeat win in the Breeders' Cup Turf. Meanwhile he continues to look the one to beat in the King George back over a mile and a half.

Cima De Triomphe once more met traffic problems when delivering his ultra late run and I continue to believe that he will do better if ridden a bit closer to the pace. Though I concede that might have been tough to achieve in this instance due to the scorching early gallop set by the three pacemakers. He came through to be fourth over a furlong out but his jockey saw that was the best he could hope for so only nudged him along enough to hold that position from there.

Seeing that his owner is Teruya Yoshida, the extremely valuable Tenno Sho in November must be a tempting target for Cima De Triomphe. He's surely going to be placed to win another Group 1 this season, most probably over the ten furlongs of the Tokyo race.

ROSE BLOSSOM WILL BE TOUGH TO BEAT IN LOWTHER

ROSE BLOSSOM (37) got taken off her feet over five furlongs at Royal Ascot by the tremendous early pace set by American raider Jealous Again. But she bounced back to her best to lower Haydock’s six furlong juvenile record in a Novice Plate last week.

Cruising along in the lead with her ears pricked, Rose Blossom had all her rivals in trouble before the two furlong pole. But when she was shaken up with about a furlong and a half to run she ran green. Here ears came back as she was cracked with the whip, then they went sideways and forwards again, and she proceeded to drift towards the centre of the course and go slower not faster. Her jockey decided to put his whip down and simply rider her out hands and heels. This worked as she straightened up and picked up again to win by nearly two lengths.

Rose Blossom is a decent sized though still light-framed, well proportioned, loose limbed, close-coupled, rather classy looking filly that looks built for the six furlongs she tackled here. I can see her just about getting seven furlongs. But I’d say the mile of the Guineas is beyond her.

Previously on her racecourse debut she had produced a remarkable performance to smash the 37 year old all-aged track record for five furlongs at Hamilton.

Rose Blossom broke well at Hamilton and was soon cruising along in the lead at a pace her rivals were clearly finding uncomfortable.

With two furlongs to go Rose Blossom's rivals were all being ridden along like crazy while she still cruised serenely along in a length and a half lead without being pressured. She began to surge clear from there. As they crested the steepest part of the rise approaching the furlong pole Rose Blossom was niggled along briefly and for a second it looked like her rivals might have a chance. But she then produced a second big effort to surge even further ahead, ears pricked to win with a good deal in hand.

No question that was the best performance we've seen by a two year old filly all season. And Rose Blossom matched it at Haydock. The curious thing was that she ran green at Haydock but picked up at Hamilton. So it looks like it’s simply the whip that puts her off, at least at present.

I guess if something gets Rose Blossom at it in the Lowther and forcer her jockey to use his whip she could be in trouble. But she’s beginning to look rather hard to beat in the York contest.

KIRKLEES SHOULD GO FOR GROSSER DALLMAYR PREIS

KIRKLEES (42) proved once more that he’s pretty much unstoppable over ten furlongs on fast ground when running away with a Listed race over the distance at Sandown. He clocked a slightly slower time than the smart Fanjura in the next race but came home a remarkable 2.5 seconds faster over the last three furlongs, the early pace having only been modest. When I take this into account I must once more give Kirklees a Group 1 rating, something that I’ve done twice before. It would have been fascinating to see how he would have fared in the Eclipse over the same course and distance the next day.

After the race trainer Saeed bin Suroor was talking about the King George as a possible target. But I think Kirklees proved pretty conclusively that he doesn’t stay a mile and a half in Dubai. His other local entry is the Juddmonte International. However the extended ten and a half furlongs of that race can take some getting. So if he were mine I’d be strongly inclined to steer him towards Germany’s Grosser Dallmayr Preis at the end of the month. The top German horses are tough to beat in their own mile and a half Group 1’s. But the Grosser Dallmayr Preis is only ten furlongs and favours foreign runners with more speed like Kirklees.

Looking further ahead, the Hong Kong Cup in December looks like a good target for Kirklees. He showed at Sandown that he has the acceleration needed to win a race like that.