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MUSIC SHOW LOOKS THE BEST 3YO FILLY NOW
After she'd won the Nell Gwyn I suggested that MUSIC SHOW
(39) might well encounter trouble winning in big fields as she's such a small
filly she must have trouble fighting her way though when delivering her
trademark late finishing burst. Sure enough she lost her next three in bigger
fields, though only going under by half a length in the Irish 1000 Guineas.
Last week Music Show got the chance to run in a small field
once more in the Falmouth Stakes and showed just how good she is by scoring an
easy win.
The early pace was rather too fast in the Falmouth so
jockey Richard Hughes did the right thing in holding up Music Show a long way
off the lead. As the leaders began to flag it was clear she could pick them up
at any time. She ended up cruising by them after being switched to win easily by
two lengths.
The fact that Music Show could finish so full of run off
such a strong early pace tells me she has serious prospects of staying ten
furlongs. The time she clocked tells me she's most likely the best of the three
year old fillies.
The normal cut off point for horses that need a small field
is eleven runners. So far Music Show has won all four times she's run in fields
of eleven or less and only won a maiden from her five starts in bigger fields.
It will be very interesting to see how Music Show does if
she goes up against Goldikova in the Prix Rothschild. Judged on this performance
if Freddy Head employs a pacemaker for Goldikova as usual it will help Music
Show as much as the French Champion. Should the field be a small one I wouldn't
make Goldikova a cert to beat Channon's filly at all.
ECLIPTIC IS SPECIAL
ECLIPTIC (37) threw the Group 2 Superlative Stakes away by
running green, but in the process he showed that he's a serious candidate for
top races from now on.
In the early stages Ecliptic was pulling his jockey's arms
out against the slow early pace and tugged his way to the front. At halfway he
was allowed to quicken up and began to move more smoothly.
Just as he quickened again to put his only serious pursuer
King Torus under pressure and edge half a length up Ecliptic dived six horse
widths across the track and slipped about a length and a half behind. He rallied
once he got to the rail as the winner himself ducked right but couldn't quite
get back up again. Clearly he should have won. The only question is by how far.
My guess is that if he'd stayed straight he'd have won by a length and a bit.
There's little question that Ecliptic is a Group 1 horse.
He is a well proportioned colt that looks like a miler who could get ten
furlongs. He's built to produce a decent turn of foot and prefer fast ground.
First time out Ecliptic moved well all the way in a good
six furlong maiden at Newmarket. But when he quickened up to try and win his
race he veered right at the same time, just as he did here. He went under
narrowly to Libranno who certainly franked the form when taking the Group 2 July
Stakes here.
On his next start Ecliptic was stepped up to seven furlongs
at Sandown and had the pace to come across from his wide draw to take the lead
on the rail. He was joined by the very smart Toolain before the furlong pole and
just when it looked like they were going to duel to the line Toolain ducked and
dumped his jockey, leaving Ecliptic to win by eight lengths.
Everyone seems to believe that Toolain would have won the
race but I'm not so sure. Ecliptic's rider hadn't yet asked him for a full out
effort and he ended up coming home 1.1 seconds quicker over the last half mile
than they did in the fastest race on the card.
It's easy to read too much into the behaviour of a lightly
raced horse like Ecliptic. But at this stage I have to say I'd prefer to bet him
around a right handed track rather than on a straight course seeing how he's
ducked right both times he's tried one. His logical targets therefore are the
Vintage, Solario and Royal Lodge Stakes and the Grand Criterium. I'd be wary of
opposing him in any of those races.
The way that the winner KING TORUS (37) was beginning to
beat outpaced by Ecliptic when that one stepped on the gas tells me he's
probably not quite a Group 1 horse. Then again plenty of juvenile Group 1's have
been won by horses earning the same sort of speed rating as he got from me here
after adjusting for the slow early pace.
King Torus is a mature, good-bodied colt that looks like a
miler. He got himself in trouble in the early stages on his debut by twice
backing off a bit of crowding in front of him. This caused him to be quite some
ways behind. From halfway though he began to pick up really well and soon showed
he was way better than his opposition. Despite running green he fairly sprinted
clear in the last furlong to win full of running by four lengths.
The time was moderate. He actually ran 0.7 of a second
slower than the winner of the seller and came home only a fifth of a second
faster over the last three furlongs. But he certainly looked like he had a lot
in hand.
Next time out King Torus was stepped up to seven furlongs
for the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot. In that race he raced slightly away from
the others towards the middle of the course, moving well. Approaching the final
furlong King Torus was disputing the lead but tired from there to finish fourth
by five lengths. I saw no obvious excuses but assistant trainer Richard Hannon
Junior said he wandered and that's why they fitted him with a chifney bridle at
Newmarket.
If King Torus is to win a Group 1 at two I suspect it will
be the Gran Criterium at San Siro in Italy.
I liked the performance of KLAMMER (34) who ran third. He
ran in a much more organised manner than on his previous starts and looks a
progressive sort.
On his debut Klammer ran over five furlongs. He ducked
right leaving the stalls and was outpaced for quite a long way. He stayed on
well from after halfway though and engaged battle with the eventual runner up
before the furlong pole. He was closing but his jockey saw he wasn't responding
well enough to the whip to get up, so he put the whip down and rode him out
hands and heels. he picked up more readily and just got in front before the
line.
Next time out in a novice race at Newmarket Klammer was
stepped up to six furlongs and kept tabs on the leaders much more comfortably.
However this time he was again up against a determined runner up and only
managed to assert in the last few strides - looking like he wanted to go longer.
Finally Klammer ran in the Coventry. There he found himself
behind a wall of horses for most of the race and had to be switched left to find
a run two furlongs out. He looked to be running in a rather disorganized manner
but picked up fairly well to pass four or five horses and take fifth by six
lengths.
Now that he's running over the right sort of distance and
has more experience I can see Klammer picking up a pattern race.
The other horse that impressed me from the Superlative
Stakes was OCEAN BAY (34). He only beat one horse home but was picking up really
well considering the flat out sprint finish and the fact he's built and bred for
middle distances.
Ocean Bay is a rangy, scopey, long striding colt that looks
built for ten furlongs. Nonetheless he started off in a red hot Conditions race
over just five furlongs at Newmarket back in April.
Green and whinnying in the paddock that day, he was
described by his trainer as 'a bit of a handful'. (He was green in the
preliminaries for the Superlative Stakes too.)
After a slow start on his debut, Ocean Bay became outpaced
and detached. But in the closing stages he stayed on really well to take third.
It was a most promising performance from a colt that was clearly wanting much
longer. He got longer in the Superlative Stakes but the very slow early pace
made it ride like a much shorter contest.
Ocean Bay's trainer explained before the Superlative Stakes
why the horse had been off for three months, saying. "It's a race we've
targeted but, being honest, we haven't had the cleanest of preps with him. He
ran a superb race first time in a maiden that has turned out nice. He then had
to have small operation which was nothing serious but meant time off. As people
know the yard has been fighting the virus so he had that and he's had ringworm
as well so it couldn't have been any harder for him to get there."
In the circumstances I think we can anticipate a fair bit
of improvement from Ocean Bay.
REDWOOD CAN WIN SOMETHING BIG IN A SMALL FIELD
The early pace in the Princess of Wales's Stakes was too
slow to produce a decent final time, and the horses raced up the centre of the
course, meaning I couldn't take sectional times. But they picked up so well over
the last half mile that I think it's appropriate to award the winner SANS
FRONTIERES (41) the big rating that lines of form point to.
There's no question that Sans Frontieres is a quirky horse.
He carries his head too high and has a tendency to shift his ground. But when
the ground is fast and he's fully fit he's quite some horse. He showed that here
when swamping his rivals for finishing speed. He was always going to win this as
soon as the sprint finish began because he was coping with the increased pace so
much more easily than his rivals. He soon picked up the leaders and kicked clear
and was only shown the whip when Redwood came out of the pack to chase him in
the last furlong.
The addition of Sheepskin cheekpieces probably helped Sans
Frontieres here. They often help a horse that's shy of crowding in a race.
The fact that there were only eight runners here looks
significant as Sans Frontieres' previous best run had come in the Craven when
second to the top class Delegator. Quite how big a field he can cope with I
don't know. But it does seem clear that Sans Frontieres has the ability to win a
Group 1 race when he gets the fast ground he needs.
Runner up REDWOOD (39) also seems to need a small field,
though in his case due to lack of stature rather than courage. He couldn't match
the winner's finishing speed but pulled over two lengths clear of the rest as he
tried to catch him.
However, having seen this performance and his last run in
the Hardwicke at Royal Ascot I now think I understand just why Redwood flopped
in his previous two outings. He's a relatively small horse and finds it hard to
fight for position around tight turns or in a big field.
In the Hardwicke Redwood's jockey tried to make his way
across to the rail soon after the start but the horse was just too small to make
this happen. He took two bumps for his pains and another slight bump soon after,
so his rider eased him back into last place to avoid having to race wide or be
bothered further. Approaching the home straight he was still last and had to
come six wide to make his run, ceding valuable ground. He picked up rather well
down the wide outside and looked set to be third until another more hefty bump
from a rival cost him valuable momentum.
What Redwood needs I think is a small field and a galloping
course, ideally one with a long homestraight.
The again it could be that Redwood can handle any number of
runners at Newmarket thanks to the extra long homestraight. He's actually
unbeaten in two tries on the Rowley Mile course where the homestraight is ten
furlongs. This suggests the Champion Stakes is a logical target.
TAZEEZ (38) finished third but was tiring at the finish
despite the slow early pace, so I don't think he really stays a mile and a half.
SPANISH MOON (38) was a warm favourite but although he
seemed to handle the starting stalls fine he did not show his best form in
finishing fourth. Indeed Spanish
Moon has yet to show his best in ten British starts. He's now lost all four
British Group races that he's tackled. Whether it's Britain's narrower starting
stalls or the longer homestraights of most British courses it does seem there's
something that prevents Spanish Moon from showing his best in his native land.
He's run nothing but huge races in six overseas starts though.
KINGS GAMBIT SHOULD WIN SOON
KINGS GAMBIT (39) was a dual Group 1 winner in South Africa
and showed that he's more than capable of taking Group races in Britain with his
short head second in the John Smith's Cup. In a long, driving finish he only
just went under to a very smart three year old winner that was receiving
eighteen pounds.
The two Group 1 wins scored by Kings Gambit in South Africa
were both at Turffontein. Turffontein's half mile homestraight and 12 metre rise
from one mile out to the home turn, make it the stiffest track in the country.
It's clear that he needs a track like that to produce his best. All his wins and
best runs have been on tracks with homestraights of half a mile or more. In fact
if the photo in the John Smith's Cup had gone his way he would have won four of
the five times he's contested truly on tracks with homestraights of half a mile
plus where the early pace hasn't been seriously slow (it wasn't fast here but
was obviously fast enough for Kings Gambit).
Over the next eight weeks or so there are plenty of Listed and Group races on
suitable courses for Kings Gambit in Britain. Notably the Rose Of Lancaster
Stakes at Haydock, the Winter Hill and August Stakes at Windsor and the Arc
Trial at Newbury. There is also the La Coupe de Maisons-Laffitte a Group 3 ten
furlong race run on a straight course in France.
If trainer Tom Tate is still serious about trying Kings
Gambit over hurdles things could get rather interesting. I can readily see him
winning more races at the top level over timber, especially at Cheltenham where
the steep uphill finish would suit him admirably.
You will not see many easier wins than the one Wigmore Hall
scored in the ten furlong handicap at Newmarket's Spring meeting. That's a race
which frequently goes to a subsequent Group winner. He literally won in a canter
after producing a tremendous turn of foot.
The winner WIGMORE HALL (39) did well to score as he had to
come from quite some way behind a race where the early pace wasn't that great
and developed into a sprint finish. Gaining as much ground as he did into an
accelerating pace is hard.
It's worth noting that three year olds like Wigmore Hall
have a tremendous record in the John Smith's Cup. If you'd bet them all blindly
over the last 23 years you'd have come out well ahead. And if you'd restricted
your bets to three year olds officially rated higher than 95 but lower than 104
which had won two from seven or fewer previous starts you'd have won six bets
out of eleven.
Earlier this season Wigmore Hall impressed me and other
when taking the ten furlong handicap at Newmarket's Spring meeting in remarkably
easy fashion. That's a race which frequently goes to a subsequent Group winner.
He literally won in a canter after producing a tremendous turn of foot.
It seems clear that the reason Wigmore Hall only ran second
in his next two starts is that he encountered tiny fields. It looks like he
needs the cover and strong early pace that a big field produces. He got this
last time out and would almost certainly have won instead of losing by half a
length if he hadn't endured a very troubled passage in the closing stages. If he
had scored there he would now have won four times out of four in big fields
beyond sprint trips.
Just how good Wigmore Hall is I can't say at this stage.
This run tags him as somewhere between Group 2 and Group 3 class. Trainer
Michael Bell has him entered in the Group 1 Juddmonte International but says he
wants to give him a break now.
Obviously when Wigmore Hall comes back he will need to
start running in pattern company as his official rating will be too high for him
to remain in handicaps. It's tempting to conclude that he will have trouble
winning again because he'll be facing small fields more often than not in Listed
and Group races. My thinking is that it could well be inexperience that's caused
him to need plenty of cover to date. He could prove more tractable in future.
ASTROPHYSICAL JET IS GROUP CLASS
ASTROPHYSICAL JET (39) clocked a seriously fast time to win
a good five furlong handicap at Newmarket with ease. This good-bodied, classy
filly cruised to the front before the furlong pole and only had to be shaken up
to stride clear.
I can't say for sure whether it was the cut back to five
furlongs that improved Astrophysical Jet so much. My suspicion is that she's
simply got a whole lot better with experience and could have routed a similarly
good field over six furlongs as well.
In any event Astrophysical Jet is clearly fast enough to
win in Group company and will surely be running at that level sooner rather than
later.
DAR RE MI HAS A MAJOR SHOT IN THE KING GEORGE
Not every season can be a vintage one. So I'm not sure it's
right to be disappointed at the lack of quality in this year's Eclipse. In fact
I suspect that a couple of the runners are going to go on to win big races.
I don't think there's much more to say about the winner
TWICE OVER (41). He'd only won one of his previous nine tries in Group 1 company
and is clearly only a borderline Group 1 horse.
Fourth placed DAR RE MI (36) looks a lot more interesting.
This smart globetrotter has passed the post first in four Group 1 races over a
mile and a half, including the world's most valuable turf race the Dubai Sheema
Classic. But ten furlongs on fast ground is clearly too short for her.
Dar Re Mi had run ten furlongs twice on a fast surface
before the Eclipse. The first time she got outpaced when beaten nearly seven
lengths into third in the Group 3 Musidora against fillies. The second time she
got beat a short head in another fillies' Group 3 by a winner that isn't Group 1
class even against her own sex.
I've no doubt that Dar Re Mi would stay the St Leger
distance. In fact her half brother Rewilding is ante-post favourite for the St
Leger. To run fourth when not fully wound up and eased in the closing stages was
a very promising run with the King George in mind.
Over the last 36 years three fillies have won the King
George. All were multiple Group 1 winners like Dar Re Mi. The last 42 King
George winners all won a third of their previous starts, again just like Dar Re
Mi.
Seeing that the British and Irish three year olds don't
look a strong group this year and that the race may well cut up to a small field
the 14-1 you can currently get about Dar Re Mi for the King George looks a
bargain. I suspect she'll start at half those odds on the day.
Runner up SRI PUTRA (41) came from the back to close the
winner down quite rapidly at the finish. He'd shown this sort of form before
when winning on his seasonal debut and would have won five of the six times he's
run on fast ground before September if he'd got up here. I'm not convinced that
he'll stay a mile and a half as he's so heavily muscled. I reckon his best shot
of Group 1 success will come in the Grosser Dallmayr Preis at Munich later this
month where that remarkable filly Night Magic looks the main danger.
VISCOUNT NELSON (40) ran to the same sort of rating he had
when fifth in the Prix du Jockey Club and third in the Irish 2000 Guineas. I
thought he'd be good enough to win the race and my immediate reaction afterwards
was that if he couldn't win a weak Group 1 like this then he's not going to win
a Group 1 at all.
I concede Viscount Nelson picked up ground strongly in the
last furlong but that was more because the winner was tiring than he was staying
on. I think ten furlong is his right distance and would be dubious about him
doing better over a mile and a half.
It could be Viscount Nelson will do a bit better on a
slower surface. The winner and Dar Re Mi got away from him with worrying ease
when they turned on the gas entering the straight and he clearly lacked
acceleration when push came to shove in the closing stages. Softer ground would
offset this problem.
ZACINTO (19) moved pretty well early on but clearly failed
to get the ten furlongs. He needs to go back to a mile.
HARBINGER IS THE ONE TO BEAT IN KING GEORGE
I confess I've never been a big fan of HARBINGER (42). But
the time he clocked when winning the Hardwicke Stakes in great style convinced
me that he's the one they all have to beat in the King George.
An idea of the merit of Harbinger's performance can be
gained from a comparison with the sectional times of the Duke Of Edinburgh
Handicap over the same distance later on the card.
They breached the three furlong from home marker in
Harbinger's race 1.2 seconds sooner than they did in the Duke Of Edinburgh. But
they still managed to cover the last three furlongs 1.1 seconds faster.
Harbinger does have a somewhat awkward stride pattern that
shows a bit of knee action. But clearly he doesn't need soft ground.
I'm always wary of a horse that has had episodes of tying
up like Harbinger has. But he seems to be over that problem for now and in the
form of his life.
RIP VAN WINKLE SHOULDN'T BE ECLIPSED THIS TIME
I'm not one to celebrate great contests like that between
Goldikova and Paco Boy in the Queen Anne. I'm a punter at heart and always watch
races with an eye to the immediate future. I don't much care what's won today. I
won't to see what's going to win next time.
In this regard I think the horse to take out of the Queen
Anne just has to be Rip Van Winkle.
Last year RIP VAN WINKLE (34) ran the race of his life in
the Eclipse when forcing Sea The Stars to pull out all the stops. This year the
Eclipse is shaping up as a much weaker race. So if he can get to the post in
anything close to his best form the race is surely his.
Judged by his comeback effort in the Queen Anne I reckon
the signs are good. Okay he got beat eight lengths into sixth. But remember how
he got beat in a maiden on his two year old debut and only ran fourth in the
Guineas first time out at three. He's a horse that always seems to need his
first run, and trainer Aidan O'Brien warned that would be the case once more
before this race.
What I liked about Rip Wan Winkle's run was that he was one
of only three horses ever really traveling in the race - the first and second
being the other two. He actually took the lead briefly two furlongs out but then
surely blew up through lack of fitness. In the last 150 yards jockey Johnny
Murtagh did no more than nurse him home with hands and heels.
Rip Van Winkle didn't shift his ground in the closing
stages as he had in the QEII last year. Nor did he give any other sign that his
old foot problems are still bothering him. So I'm happy to take Aidan O'Brien's
word when he says the horse has improved from three to four.
I recognise that there's only eighteen days between the
Queen Anne and the Eclipse. But I think the forcing tactics adopted on Rip Van
Winkle at Ascot will ensure he got a good deal of benefit from the run. I
struggle to see what could beat him at Sandown.
Actually the danger to Rip Van Winkle in the Eclipse could
well be his old rival ZACINTO (38) who ran him to a length and a quarter in the
QEII and finished fourth in the Queen Anne.
Here Zacinto struggled to match the pace of the principles
in the closing stages. He's always looked like he'd do well over ten furlongs.
And it's interesting to note that nine of the last ten Eclipse winners earned
Racing Post ratings of 119 or higher over less than ten furlongs previously that
same season, which is what Zacinto did here.
Runner up PACO BOY (42) invariably encounters traffic
problems in fields bigger than ten because he's only a medium sized horse that
finds it hard to fight for position. Here he faced the maximum number of runners
he's coped with in the past and did encounter some trouble. He had to delay his
run while blocked behind a wall of horses and this allowed Goldikova to spurt
clear. He produced his usual tremendous finishing burst but couldn't quite get
to the brilliant mare.
This was only the second time in a dozen starts in fields
of ten or less that Paco Boy has been beaten. The other time was when he ran
second to Rip Van Winkle in the Sussex Stakes.
Paco Boy's prospects in his next two races, the Marois and
the Foret, will clearly depend on the quantity rather than the quality of the
opposition. The stats shows fields of ten or less are common in the Marois but
much less so in the Foret. So I'd fancy his chances more at this stage in the
former race even though it looks like he'll be meeting Goldikova again there.
GOLDIKOVA (42) didn't bounce as I feared she might
following her hard race in the Prix d'Ispahan. Though I should add this was a
few lengths below her best according to my ratings. Her entire campaign is
clearly being geared towards a record breaking third win in the Breeders' Cup
Mile. Right now all looks to be going to plan. Unless her connections over-race
her or Peslier gives her an unnecessarily hard race as he did in last year's
Jacques Le Marois I think she'll pull it off.
I think it's safe to assume that fifth placed DALGHAR (36)
'bounced' off his very fast run at Longchamp just ten days before. He moved well
though racing a little rank till tiring then hanging right in the final furlong.
Dalghar is a half brother to Dalakhani and Daylami. So it's
not surprising he cost 1.2 million Euro and has the build of a middle distance
hose - being tall, strong and rangy in appearance and having a running style
whereby he lengthens rather than quickens.
I'm happy to bet that Dalghar either needed his first two
runs or was too green to produce his best. Thereafter he's run like a very good
horse. In fact his only two losses in his most recent six starts prior to the
Queen Anne were both easy to excuse.
The first loss was in a Group 2 as a juvenile where he
managed to finish second despite the six furlongs surely being too short for
him. The heavy ground was all against him too as he has a daisy cutting action
designed for firm ground.
Dalghar's other loss came off a six month break on his
seasonal debut this year where he pulled hard, clearly not liking the idea of
being restrained far back early on. A lot of horses race rank like that when
they're fresh off a break. Nonetheless he still rallied to finish second in a
sprint finish, lacking the turn of foot to get to a winner that is clearly smart
over the distance.
Dalghar's big claim to fame is that he lowered Longchamp's
course record for seven furlongs when winning the Prix du Palais-Royal last
time. There he raced in a close second till going on at halfway and was staying
on very strongly at the finish.
That run was 2.4 seconds a mile closer to my standard time
than the next fastest race on an eight race card. I have to rate it a Group 1
performance.
The Foret is the obvious long term target for Dalghar. And
at some stage I'd like to see him given a shot at ten furlongs. His physique and
the dam's side of his pedigree suggest he'd get that far.
OUQBA (30) tired in the closing stages, surely proving once
and for all that he doesn't stay a mile in a truly run race. He's a very good
sprinter though and could easily win something big this term.
EASY FOR CANFORD CLIFFS
CANFORD CLIFFS (39) had a surprisingly easy race to take
the St James's Palace Stakes, mostly I think due to what looked like a collapse
in the game plan for team Coolmore.
Encompassing was surely in the race to make the pace for
stablemate Steinbeck, just as he had in the Irish Guineas. I suspect Beethoven
was also going to be used as a pace maker. But after a slow start by
Encompassing Steinbeck found himself in the lead. His jockey Johnny Murtagh was
surely expecting Encompassing to come on through and take up the running which,
inexplicably, he never did, despite being driven up into second soon after his
slow start.
It turned out that Canford Cliffs had way more finishing
speed than any of those in the firing line in the closing stages. All he had to
do was produce one burst of speed and the race was his.
This race will not have taken much out of Canford Cliffs as
he didn't have to produce his best form to win it. So I see no reason why he
shouldn't produce his best in the Sussex Stakes next month. Clearly he won with
a fair bit in hand.
DICK TURPIN (38) had beaten Canford Cliffs in the Greenham
and the 2000 Guineas and run very close in the French Guineas off a stronger
early gallop than he got here. This time Canford Cliffs left him for dead with
his finishing burst. Clearly he's better off a searching early pace. That's a
concern as he's now likely to be running in races with significantly smaller
fields where a really strong pace is far from certain. I'm thinking he may now
need a bit of cut in the ground to counteract his lack of acceleration. He's a
big, strong horse that lengthens rather than quickens.
Most likely HEARTS OF FIRE (37) would have been second if
he hadn't been forced to take up and switch by Dick Turpin shifting towards the
rail when he went for a run up his inside. But I suspect he did so well because
he was one of the two horses able to produce a serious burst of finishing speed.
I want to see him actually run fast without an excuse before I'll believe he's
that good.
Steinbeck had all sorts of trouble. He forced to make his
own running; he lost a front shoe and he had to be taken up sharply and lost a
good deal of momentum when Hearts of Fire cut across him in the closing stages.
Nonetheless it was worrying to see him so readily outpaced in the closing
stages. Maybe he wants a longer trip.
WIENER WALZER GETS INTERESTING
I'm now ready to believe Andre Fabre when he says his
charge BYWORD (41) is best over 8-10 furlongs after seeing the way he triumphed
in the sprint finish for the Prince of Wales Stakes. He's clearly a smarty horse
that always seems to run his race.
There were however several horses that finished behind
Byword that look better value betting propositions in the immediate future.
For me the most interesting one of these is WIENER WALZER
(39) who finished a close fifth.
Wiener Walzer is a big-bodied beast of a horse that's not
built for sprint finishes. He did well to finish so close after getting impeded
when Debussy hung across him approaching the final furlong.
Having seen this run I'm now wavering in my conviction that
Wiener Walzer cannot be fully effective over ten furlongs. In fact if he ships
back over to Britain for the Judd Monte International over 88 yards longer than
ten furlongs I'll be rather interested in his chances. A stronger early pace
there and the longer homestraight might well be enough to pull him into the
race.
DEBUSSY (38) showed why jockey Jimmy Fortune showed he
didn't like going right-handed at Deauville last year by hanging left in the
closing stages. He's unbeaten in four turf starts on left handed or straight
courses over his specialist distance of ten furlongs.
If he were mine the race I'd be aiming Debussy at would be
the Champion Stakes. He's only a borderline Group 1 horse on my ratings but the
Champion Stakes is often a weak Group 1 and he showed at Maisons-Laffitte last
year that he's very effective on a ten furlong straight course. '
TWICE OVER (41) is also only a borderline Group 1 horse but
he's very consistent and finished well to take second. He was a little unlucky
in that he had to make his run into an accelerating pace. His sole Group 1 win
came in the Champion Stakes and that will be his big objective once again.
GLASS HARMONIUM (38) yet again looked to be wanting another
two furlongs. He picked up well late after meeting traffic problems and would
clearly have done better off a stronger early pace.
MONTEROSSO PROBABLY NOT GOOD ENOUGH FOR IRISH DERBY
MONTEROSSO (39) didn't have as hard a race as it appeared
to win the King Edward VII Stakes thanks to a sprint finish. He came home 2.2
seconds quicker over the last three furlongs than the winner of the Wolferton
Stakes over two furlongs less. He actually managed to go more than two lengths
clear which is quite something in a sprint finish.
You might think there were big doubts about Monterosso
lasting the ten furlongs here. After all his sire won the French Guineas while
the thirteen wins scored by his dam and siblings were all over a mile or less.
However Monterosso is trained by Mark Johnston who has an extraordinary knack of
training horses to outstay their pedigrees. He's shown this umpteen times in the
past, notably with Boscabel in this very race a few years back.
Monterosso certainly ran like a horse that would get longer
when coming through from third off a searching early gallop to win a ten furlong
handicap in very fast time at Newmarket last time out.
If New Approach hadn't broken the course record for ten
furlongs at Newmarket back in 2008 Monterosso would now be credited with it. His
run was the second fastest ten furlongs ever at Newmarket. Okay it was with the
help of a strong tailwind, but there's often a strong tailwind at Newmarket. He
ran half a second per mile closer to my standard time than the next fastest
winner on the card. I had to rate it a big Group 2 class performance for a three
year old. And he equaled it in the King Edward VII Stakes when I adjust my speed
rating to take account of the sectional times.
Monterosso's only loss in six starts beyond sprint trips
came when he ran second in the London Gold Cup at Newbury to Green Moon. In that
race he looked a threat to Green Moon as he set out after him two furlongs out.
But as he pulled clear of the rest and got isolated he started running around
and racing green. He ended up getting beat four lengths. However he looked a
real threat when he began his run and you have to bear in mind the winner was
granted a pretty soft, uncontested lead throughout and was in receipt of six
pounds.
I'm not sure it's a great idea to blow 125 thousand Euro
supplementing Monterosso for the Irish Derby. My thinking is he'd do well to
finish third or fourth. Still he is a progressive horse in a year where there
seem to be few middle distance stars among the three year olds in Britain and
Ireland.
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